number of conflicts by 45% and 31%, respectively. This last result agrees with the realist theory that says far apart countries have less reasons to have conflicts (Oneal and Russett, 1999).

| NN               | SVM   |       |       |     |
|------------------|-------|-------|-------|-----|
| Variable         | Peace | War   | Peace | War |
| Test set results | 19464 | 297   | 20914 | 295 |
| Dem-min          | 16263 | 325   | 22327 | 205 |
| Dem-max          | 2345  | 23761 | 35    |     |
| Allies-min       | 18555 | 313   | 20469 | 274 |
| 21034            | 237   | 21999 | 153   |     |
| Allies-max       | 23682 | 24745 |       |     |
| Contig-min       | 164   | 60    |       |     |
| Contig-max       | 12463 | 342   | 18939 | 21  |
| 5351             | 370   | 25067 | 34    |     |
| Dist-min         |       |       |       |     |
| Dist-max         | 2525  | 206   | 2224  | 3   |
| Capab-min        | 6929  | 373   | 19840 | 180 |
| Capab-max        | 26322 | 3     | 26345 |     |
| Depnd-min        | 19455 | 297   | 20498 | 305 |
| Depnd-max        | 20411 | 277   | 26345 | -   |
| Majpow-min       | 19686 | 289   | 2345  |     |
| Majpow-max       | 19428 | 29    | 23583 | 136 |

SVM result: The results of the experiment show inconsistency on how the MID outcome is affected when the variables are maximised and minimised. Further investigation is required to understand more clearly the influence of each variable (e.g. exploring some other sensitivity analysis techniques). Therefore, an alternative sensitivity analysis that involves using only one explanatory variable to predict the MID and see the goodness of accuracy is used. The ROC curves were drawn and the area under the curve (AUC) calculated for the purpose of ranking as is