is 2.697, which gives significant difference in a 95% confidence interval. The results of the SVM are much better in predicting the conflicts without affecting the prediction of peace as it is clearly shown in I. The ROC graphs of the NN and SVM results are given in figure 3. 

![0_image_0.png](0_image_0.png)

B. Influence of each variable on the MID outcome In order to see the influence of each variable on the MID result, two separate sensitivity analysis were done for NN and SVM. The two techniques agree in picking up the influences of some of the variables while they differ on others. 

 1*) Experiment one***: This experiment looked at how assigning each variable to its possible** 
maximum value while keeping the rest at their possible minimum values and vise versa affect the MID outcome. The results for NN show that *democracy level* and *capability ratio* **are able to** 
deliver a peaceful outcome while all the other variables are kept minimal. This means, dyadic preponderance has a deterring effect to conflict, as is joint democracy of the states involved. On the