# Predicting Suicide Attacks: A Fuzzy Soft Set Approach

Athar Kharal∗†
National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST),
Islamabad, PAKISTAN
atharkharal@gmail.com Abstract. **This paper models a decision support system to predict the**
occurance of suicide attack in a given collection of cities. **The system comprises** two parts. First part analyzes and identifies the factors which affect the prediction.

Admitting incomplete information and use of linguistic terms by experts, as two characteristic features of this peculiar prediction problem we exploit the Theory of Fuzzy Soft Sets. Hence the Part 2 of the model is an algorithm vz. FSP which takes the assessment of factors given in Part 1 as its input and produces a possibility profile of cities likely to receive the accident. The algorithm is of O (2n**) complexity. It has**
been illustrated by an example solved in detail. Simulation **results for the algorithm** have been presented which give insight into the strengths and weaknesses of FSP. Three different decision making measures have been simulated and compared in our discussion.

Keywords: **Decision support; fuzzy soft set; suicide attack; counter-terror strategy**

## 1. **Introduction**

As this paper was in final stage of preparation, on July 2, 2010 two simultaneous suicide attacks took place in the Pakistani cosmopolitan city of Lahore. The attacks left 50 innocent people killed instantly and another 200 severely injured. In **total, since 9/11** some 247 suicide attacks took place in Pakistan killing more than 3000 people. Suicide attacks, when people themselves are weapons for destruction, have risen globally from an average of about 3 per year in the 1980s to 40 a year in 2002, almost **50 a year in 2005 and** more than 200 by 2009-10. Globally three fourth of all suicide bombings have happened since the terror attacks in the USA on September 11, 2001. Altogether in 16 countries over 300 suicide attacks have resulted in more than 5,300 people killed **and over 10,000** wounded.

In the typical modus operandi of suicide attacks, the terrorist wears an explosive belt on the body or carries it in a suitcase, sports bag, or rucksack. Such charges are usually stuffed with about 3–15 kg of TNT or homemade explosives, together with small chunks of iron or a large quantity of nails packed around explosives, in order to **maximize casualties** and loss of limbs. The detonator of a simple design allows the terrorist **to activate the** explosives even when under pressure.

Besides being extremely devastating in terms of casualties, physical damage and psychological impact such attacks are also highly unpredictable. Many factors contribute to arXiv:1007.4868v1 [cs.AI] 28 Jul 2010