conversations.from: human
conversations.value: a description for a book titled Road To Referendum about B>the, I>Herald</I>&#160;and, Herald</I with the genre: Politics & Social Sciences, Politics & Government
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conversations.value: <B>the author</B> is an award-winning political commentator for the <I>Herald</I>&#160;and the&#160;<I>Sunday Herald</I>. He has written for many&#160;journals, including <I>Public Finance</I> magazine and the <I>New Statesman</I>.
conversations.from: human
conversations.value: the first five paragraphs for this book
conversations.from: assistant
conversations.value: Road To Referendum
  There is evidence that the smaller, social democratic countries — Finland, Denmark or Norway — where wealth differentials have been kept within limits, have coped with financial turbulence rather better than the larger neoliberal "Anglo-Saxon" countries like the UK. Certainly, they have been less prone to boom and bust. There is also evidence that small countries like Lativa have been able to recover from the crisis more rapidly. The Baltic state has been commended by the IMF for "taking the medicine", and getting on with restructuring its economy. Latvia grew by 5% in 2012. Similar claims have been made for Ireland, and though these should be taken with some scepticism, since unemployment is still high in both countries, there is an argument that smaller countries can cope rather better with crisis. This is because they tend to have greater social solidarity, flatter class divisions, and their businesses are more flexible.
  The small Nordic nations certainly have a very much stronger record of business formation than Scotland.103 In 2008, Scotland had 26 enterprises per 1,000 of population, while Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland had 43, 51, 67 and 61 respectively. According to the economist Professor David Bell of Stirling University, "high rates of tax do not deter Scandinavian entrepreneurship". Scotland has one of the lowest levels of new business formation in Europe, a problem that cannot be rectified simply by cutting spending, which seems to be the current government's solution. This "enterprise deficit", as it has been called by Ben Thomson of Reform Scotland, is arguably the biggest economic challenge facing Scotland, whether it remains in or out of the UK. Both economists argue that this is unlikely to be tackled without greater economic powers being devolved to Scotland. Something needs to be done to shake Scotland out of its dependency.
  Scots have tended to see themselves as passive victims of the London political-industrial complex, which led to a culture of defeatism and negativity that may, only now, be coming under challenge. That post-neoclassical endogenous growth, that Gordon Brown used to talk about, did not happen in Scotland because the political power structures of Britain in the 20th century militated against it. The state that became such an important player in economic activity was firmly located in London and saw Scotland as provincial. It is only since the creation of the Scottish Parliament that there have been moves to develop a distinctive industrial economy in Scotland based on Scotland's universities with Labour's Wendy Alexander's "Smart, Successful Scotland" and Jack McConnell's "Fresh Start" initiatives trying to promote professional immigration. The Scottish National Party have sought to develop an industrial policy based on green energy.
  One of the unintended consequences of the independence debate has been the conversion of many on the political Left in Scotland to the economics of enterprise. Alex Salmond was a former leader of the avowedly socialist '79 Group in the 1980s, and the culture of the SNP has long been firmly on the Left. The SNP have been close to the public sector unions and tended to be unsympathetic to business — until, as we've seen, it started raising serious money from them after 2000. But, in facing up to the problems of justifying Scotland as an independent and viable economic entity, the Nationalists have had to address the lack of a developed business culture in Scotland.
  However, if you'd believe Alex Salmond, Scotland's enterprise deficit is already being filled thanks to Scotland's "second energy bonanza" — renewables. With up to 25% of Europe's off-shore wind and tidal energy potential, and around 10% of its wave power, the First Minster paints a picture of Scotland becoming the "Green Energy Capital of Europe", with companies like Pelamis, Wavegen, SgurrEnergy and Doosan leading the way. This isn't all Nationalist greenwash. The UK Energy Minister, Ed Davey, in a speech in March 2013, forecast that there could be 400,000 jobs supported by the renewables industry by 2020, and many of these will be in Scotland. Companies like Aveva, Gamesa, and Samsung Heavy Industries are piling into Scottish offshore wind generation.
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conversations.value: five more paragraphs
conversations.from: assistant
conversations.value: It isn't as simple as that, of course. In the end, nationhood is about community and family. You don't leave your family behind simply because you could be better off on your own. There is also the institutional momentum that has been generated by 300 years in which Scotland has been governed as part of England. What no Nationalist can dispute is that there would be, initially at least, disruption and cost as Scotland had to detach itself from UK institutions like the Treasury, the Revenue, the Diplomatic Corps. The Finance Secretary, John Swinney, in a leaked Cabinet memo in 2012 suggested that it would cost £600m to set up a Scottish Revenue alone — but that would only be the start.114 These costs might well be worth the investment if Scotland were to recover some of its lost national dynamism. But the greatest obstacle to radical change is fear of the unknown. And there are a lot of known unknowns about independence, let alone Donald Rumsfeld's unknown unknowns. These are troubled times. Britain has been through a double-dip economic recession; the eurozone has been in chaos over the sovereign debt crisis, with countries like Greece going bankrupt; world trade is slowing; and there is increasing competition from low-wage countries in Asia. Is this the right moment for Scotland to consider going it alone? Independence is a hard sell at the best of times to a country that doesn't feel it is under foreign domination.
  We live in an era, moreover, in which politicians in general are mistrusted, their promises disbelieved. Labour in Scotland have been playing on this mistrust by attacking the credibility of Alex Salmond over issues like the legal advice he said he had on EU membership, but didn't. "You can't believe a word he says," they jeer. "He's making it up as he goes along." Doubt is a difficult thing to dispel, and with a Scottish media that is prone to hyperbolic negativity, fears about independence are never far from the front pages. This has become known in Nationalist circles as the "too wee, too poor, too stupid" agenda. The SNP lack the formal support of any of the Scottish or UK newspapers and independence tends to be portrayed as a reckless gamble.
  According to front page stories during 2012, an independent Scotland would be thrown out of the European Union115 and would have to reapply for membership; the Bank of England would refuse to let Scotland use the pound116 or impose draconian terms;117 Scotland would be left undefended as military co-operation ceased;118 border posts would be set up to keep immigrants out of England.119 Scotland would then be plunged into penury, as the Scottish Treasury was forced to take on the multi-billion-pound debts of the Scottish banks as well as the £120 billion of the national debt;120 Scotland would lose its Triple A credit rating (even though it has already been lost by the UK).121 Businesses might depart Scotland overnight to escape left-wing Nationalist tax policies and Scots might lose their pensions.122 Scotland's oil would dry up, after collapsing in value,123 and investment in the "windmills" dry up as UK carbon subsidies are axed.124 As the lights went out all over Scotland125 because of the SNP's anti-nuclear policies126, Scotland would be given a bill for decommissioning and nuclear waste.127 Up to 19,000 jobs would be lost on the Clyde as Trident was removed,128 and Scotland would be presented with another multi-billion-pound bill for relocation of Britain's nuclear deterrent to England.129 Scotland's universities would lose their best staff and students and go into irreversible decline;130 and there would be a new exodus of Scots escaping the turmoil by emigrating.
  And it doesn't end there. Scotland could even become a target for English bombing,131 according to a former Scottish Lord Advocate; MI6 might treat Scotland as an enemy power according to Teresa May, the UK Home Secretary;132 Scotland might become a haven for Islamic terrorists, according to Professor Tom Gallagher.133 British embassies abroad would boycott Scottish whisky, according to the Foreign Secretary, William Hague.134 Even Scotland's pandas, Sunshine and Sweetie, loaned by the Chinese Wildlife Conservation Organisation, might have to be sent back to China if Scotland became independent, according to one press report.135 These stories play on the uncertainties of independence and the predisposition of many Scots to look on the negative. The only one that can be categorically denied is the panda threat, since they were given directly to Edinburgh Zoo and not the UK. It is very difficult to give definitive rebuttals to the other warnings about independence because no one can predict the future.
  There are legitimate questions about financial arrangements, such as pension entitlements. The Institute for Chartered Accountancy in Scotland has said that, under new EU directives, pension schemes that are unfunded cannot be held across borders. Since many private pension schemes currently have deficits, and the UK government has around £1 trillion in unfunded pension liabilities to public sector workers, there is clearly a question here about how things would work if Scotland were a separate country. This is not an insoluble problem, given good will, as even the ICAS accepts. The Scottish Government points that such cross-border pension schemes exist already in Europe, and there is currently one with the Irish Republic. But since most voters are vague and fearful about their pensions at the best of times, all Better Together need to do is raise questions to sow doubt. There can be no definitive answer to this pension issue unless and until the Scottish and UK Governments get together, as advocated by ICAS, to work out a transitional arrangement. And, of course, the UK Government isn't going to do that because it would look as if it was accepting that independence was actually going to happen. The UK has refused to enter into "prenegotiation" on independence. Good will
conversations.from: human
conversations.value: the last five paragraphs
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conversations.value: James Keir Hardie (1856 — 1915), the founder of the British Labour Party. Many nationalists lionise Hardie as the father of Scottish home rule, but his work was much more far-reaching, including campaigns for self-rule for India and an end to segregation in South Africa.
  Andy Stewart and Robert Wilson in 1962 filming the White Heather Club, the Scottish variety show that ran from 1958 to 1968.
  Lynn Abrams, Callum G Brown. A History of Everyday Life in Scotland in the 20th Century. Edinburgh. 2010
  Alastair Campbell, History of the Clan Campbell: from Restoration to the Present Day. Edinburgh. 2004
  W.W. Knox. Industrial Nation: Work, Culture and Society in Scotland 1800 to the Present. Edinburgh. 1999