Estancia has a typical New Mexico cool semi-arid climate (Köppen BSk). During the “summer” season from April to June, afternoons change from warm to hot, mornings move from freezing or near-freezing to cool, and the sky is generally very clear. The monsoon season from July to September provides the heaviest precipitation due to frequent thunderstorms, although diurnal temperature ranges remain above . The cool winter half of the year from October to March gradually chills with freezing mornings almost every day. Over a whole year 177.1 mornings fall below freezing although most afternoons even in the depth of winter are cool and sunny and maxima during an average winter top freezing on all but 6.1 afternoons. Occasionally, an extratropical storm will penetrate far south enough to provide an easterly flow from the Gulf of Mexico: the average annual snowfall is , although as much as fell in January 1987, and over between July 1915 and June 1916.
