Economic indicators are used to measure the business cycle: consumer confidence index, retail trade index, unemployment and industry/service production index. Stock and Watson claim that financial indicators' predictive ability is not stable over different time periods because of economic shocks, random fluctuations and development in financial systems. Stock, J.H., & Watson, M.W. (1999). (pp. 3–14). "Business Cycle Fluctuations in US Macroeconomic Time Series", Amsterdam: Elsevier. Ludvigson believes consumer confidence index is a coincident indicator as it relates to consumer's current situations. Ludvigson, S.C. (2004). (pp. 29–45). "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending. Journal of Economic Perspectives." Winton & Ralph state that retail trade index is a benchmark for the current economic level because its aggregate value counts up for two-thirds of the overall GDP and reflects the real state of the economy. Winton, J., & Ralph, J. (2011). (p. 88). "Measuring the accuracy of the Retail Sales Index. Economic and Labour Market Review". According to Stock and Watson, unemployment claim can predict when the business cycle is entering a downward phase. Stock, J.H., & Watson, M.W. (2003a). (pp. 71–80). "How Did Leading Indicators Forecasts Perform During the 2001 Recession?. Economic Quarterly – Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond". Banbura and Rüstler argue that industry production's GDP information can be delayed as it measures real activity with real number, but it provides an accurate prediction of GDP. Banbura, A., & Rüstler, G. (2011). (pp. 333–342). "A Look Into the Factor Model Black Box: Publication Lags and the Role of Hard and Soft Data in Forecasting GDP. International Journal of Forecasting".
