Zhang Weiwei first predicted Arab Winter in his June 2011 debate with Francis Fukuyama, who believed Arab Spring might be spread to China. Zhang argues that "My observations of the Middle East have led me to conclude that, while many in the West cheer the Arab Spring, don't be too optimistic. I hope the region will do well, but it will be difficult, and the Arab Spring today may well turn into Arab Winter in the not too distant future with American interests undermined."
