d solely in describing the data set we have, we generally want to infer something about the Data Generating Process. We don’t just want to state that Paul made 8 out of 8 accurate predictions in the 2010 FIFA World Cup, we want to use this data to assess whether Paul had psychic abilities. Whether, had Paul’s keeper allowed Paul to make predictions for other matches, he would have also been correct. Such inferences go beyond the data that we have. Perhaps Paul was just lucky in those 8 predictions, and 