t or right container in his tank, or whether Paul chose the container with the Spanish flag or the container with the Dutch flag. What we are interested in is whether the first container to be opened contained the flag of the team that would win the match played that day. If it did, Paul made a correct prediction, if not, Paul made an incorrect prediction. The data then contains information about what we deem relevant to our purposes. In a sense, looking just at the accuracy of Paul’s predictions, we have