arterly zero rates</span>
      F(i,:,p)=forward(Zb(i,:,p),ttm);  <span class="comment">%compute the forward rates (1-year)</span>
      X=[];

      <span class="comment">%Estimate historical rates fitted to VAR model, for term premium computation</span>
      <span class="keyword">for</span> j=1:12
	<span class="keyword">if</span> j==1;
	  X=para.B(:,1) + para.B(:,2:end)*data.X(i,:,p)';
	<span class="keyword">else</span>
	  X=para.B(:,1) + para.B(:,2:end)*X;
	<span class="keyword">end</span>
      <span c