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After your yearly checkup, the doctor has bad news and good news. The
bad news is that you tested positive for a serious disease and that the
test is 99% accurate (i.e., the probability of testing positive when you
do have the disease is 0.99, as is the probability of testing negative
when you don’t have the disease). The good news is that this is a rare
disease, striking only 1 in 100,000 people of your age. Why is it good
news that the disease is rare? What are the chances that you actually
have t