s of May 1st 2020, are less than &quot;95% sure&quot;.</p>

	<p>However, pandemics are like poker. <strong>Make bets only when you&#39;re 95% sure, and you&#39;ll lose everything at stake.</strong> As a recent article on masks in the British Medical Journal notes,<sup id="fnref34"><a href="#fn34" rel="footnote">34</a></sup> we <em>have</em> to make cost/benefit analyses under uncertainty. Like so:</p>

	<p>Cost: If homemade cloth masks (which are ~2/3 as effective as surgical masks<sup id="fnref35"><a href=