‚Äù. Or, <strong>1 in 28.</strong></p>

	<p>Overall, there&#39;s a lot of uncertainty, but &quot;1 in 20&quot; is roughly close. Besides, for the rest of these simulations, we <em>triple</em> hospital capacity ‚Äì so, even if &quot;1 in 20&quot; is three times too high, the point still stands.</p>

	<p>Old citation: <del><a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105420/covid-icu-admission-rates-us-by-age-group/">&quot;Percentage of COVID-19 cases in the United States from February 12 to March 16