<p>The simulation and DAG picture in the above example are made up. They reflect our idea of how a drug might be related to mortality. The word we will prefer for such ideas is “<strong>hypothesis</strong>,” although “theory”, “speculation,” or “assumption” would serve almost as well.</p>
<p>A hypothesis is a statement that might or might not be true. A common purpose for a hypothesis is to organize thinking around an <strong>assumed</strong> state of the world. But just because we <em>assum