Hadley cell
Physical mechanisms and projected changes

The physical processes by which the Hadley circulation expands by human influence are unclear but may be linked to the increased warming of the subtropics relative to other latitudes in both the Northern and Southern hemispheres. The enhanced subtropical warmth could enable expansion of the circulation poleward by displacing the subtropical jet and baroclinic eddies poleward. Poleward expansion of the Southern Hemisphere Hadley cell in the austral summer was attributed by the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) to stratospheric ozone depletion based on CMIP5 model simulations, while CMIP6 simulations have not shown as clear of a signal. Ozone depletion could plausibly affect the Hadley circulation through the increase of radiative cooling in the lower stratosphere; this would increase the phase speed of baroclinic eddies and displace them poleward, leading to expansion of Hadley cells. Other eddy-driven mechanisms for expanding Hadley cells have been proposed, involving changes in baroclinicity, wave breaking, and other releases of instability. In the extratropics of the Northern Hemisphere, increasing concentrations of black carbon and tropospheric ozone may be a major forcing on that hemisphere's Hadley cell expansion in boreal summer.

Projections from climate models indicate that a continued increase in the concentration of greenhouse gas would result in continued widening of the Hadley circulation. However, simulations using historical data suggest that forcing from greenhouse gasses may account for about 0.1° per decade of expansion of the tropics. Although the widening of the Hadley cells due to climate change has occurred concurrent with an increase in their intensity based on atmospheric reanalyses, climate model projections generally depict a weakening circulation in tandem with a widening circulation by the end of the 21st century. A longer term increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide may lead to a weakening of the Hadley circulation as a result of the reduction of radiative cooling in the troposphere near the circulation's sinking branches. However, changes in the oceanic circulation within the tropics may attenuate changes in the intensity and width of the Hadley cells by reducing thermal contrasts.
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