Lightning
Lightning and climate change

Due to the low resolution of global climate models, accurately representing lightning in these climate models is difficult, largely due to their inability to simulate the convection and cloud ice fundamental to lightning formation. Research from the Future Climate for Africa programme demonstrates that using a convection-permitting model over Africa can more accurately capture convective thunderstorms and the distribution of ice particles. This research indicates climate change may increase the total amount of lightning only slightly: the total number of lightning days per year decreases, while more cloud ice and stronger convection leads to more lightning strikes occurring on days when lightning does occur.

A study from the University of Washington looked at lightning activity in the Arctic from 2010 to 2020. The ratio of Arctic summertime strokes was compared to total global strokes and was observed to be increasing with time, indicating that the region is becoming more influenced by lightning. The fraction of strokes above 65 degrees north was found to be increasing linearly with the NOAA global temperature anomaly and grew by a factor of 3 as the anomaly increased from 0.65 to 0.95 °C
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