information:classification
Systematic errors towards a narrative trap

Incorporated under the umbrella term “ Affective forecasting ”, it is argued that having attention problems such as mistaken beliefs and projections, whereby we make systematic errors in perceiving the reality and predicting the future's influence, creates the fundamental vulnerability to falling into narrative traps. In terms of mistaken projection, apart from 1) peak-end effect, and 2) focusing illusion, there are other types: 3) distinction bias (focus on dissimilarities of two choices yet fell to take into consideration of the experience after the decision is made); 4) Impact bias (the tendency for people to overestimate the length or the intensity of future feeling states). Lying at the core of mistaken belief is our sense of volition (i.e. having freewill), acting on mechanisms such as fundamental attributional bias (where we judge others' motive as external will ourselves as internal), confirmation bias (which in itself is a form of narrative-reaching), and cognitive dissonance. In contrast, it was argued that instead of willpower, genes, context, and luck plays a much larger role in explaining behavior.