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Warnings about Germany and the abdication crisis: 1933–1936

After Hitler came to power in January 1933, Churchill was quick to stand in opposition to such a regime, and expressed alarm that the British government had reduced air force spending, and warned that Germany would soon overtake Britain in air force production. Armed with data provided clandestinely by senior civil servants, Desmond Morton and Ralph Wigram, Churchill was able to speak with authority about what was happening in Germany, especially the development of the Luftwaffe. He spoke of his concerns in a radio broadcast in November 1934, having denounced the intolerance and militarism of Nazism in the House of Commons. While Churchill regarded Mussolini's regime as a bulwark against the threat of communist revolution, he opposed the Italian invasion of Ethiopia, despite describing the country as a primitive, uncivilised nation. He admired the exiled king of Spain Alfonso XIII and feared Communism was making inroads during the Spanish Civil War. He referred to Franco 's army as the "anti-red movement", but later became critical of Franco as too close to Mussolini and Hitler.

Between October 1933 and September 1938, the four volumes of Marlborough: His Life and Times were published and sold well. In December 1934, the India Bill entered Parliament and was passed in February 1935. Churchill and 83 other Conservative MPs voted against it. In June 1935, MacDonald resigned and was succeeded as prime minister by Baldwin. Baldwin then led the Conservatives to victory in the 1935 general election; Churchill retained his seat, but was again left out of the government. In January 1936, Edward VIII succeeded his father, George V, as monarch. His desire to marry an American divorcee, Wallis Simpson, caused the abdication crisis. Churchill supported Edward and clashed with Baldwin on the issue. Afterwards, although Churchill immediately pledged loyalty to George VI, he wrote that the abdication was "premature and probably quite unnecessary".