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Climate change

A 2019 paper published in PLOS One estimates that under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, a "moderate" scenario of climate change where global warming reaches ~ 2.5–3 °C (4.5–5.4 °F) by 2100, the climate of Abidjan in the year 2050 would most closely resemble the current climate of Manila in the Philippines. The annual temperature would increase by 1.8 °C (3.2 °F), and the temperature of the coldest month by 1.9 °C (3.4 °F), but the temperature of the warmest month would be 3.4 °C (6.1 °F) higher. According to Climate Action Tracker, the current warming trajectory appears consistent with 2.7 °C (4.9 °F), which closely matches RCP 4.5.

Moreover, according to the 2022 IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, Abidjan is one of 12 major African cities (Abidjan, Alexandria, Algiers, Cape Town, Casablanca, Dakar, Dar es Salaam, Durban, Lagos, Lomé, Luanda and Maputo) which would be the most severely affected by the future sea level rise. It estimates that they would collectively sustain cumulative damages of US$65 billion under RCP 4.5 and US$86.5 billion for the high-emission scenario RCP 8.5 by the year 2050. Additionally, RCP 8.5 combined with the hypothetical impact from marine ice sheet instability at high levels of warming would involve up to US$137.5 billion in damages, while the additional accounting for the "low-probability, high-damage events" may increase aggregate risks to US$187 billion for the "moderate" RCP4.5, US$206 billion for RCP8.5 and US$397 billion under the high-end ice sheet instability scenario. Since sea level rise would continue for about 10,000 years under every scenario of climate change, future costs of sea level rise would only increase, especially without adaptation measures.