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Zero-sum games in financial markets

Derivatives trading may be considered a zero-sum game, as each dollar gained by one party in a transaction must be lost by the other, hence yielding a net transfer of wealth of zero.

An options contract - whereby a buyer purchases a derivative contract which provides them with the right to buy an underlying asset from a seller at a specified strike price before a specified expiration date – is an example of a zero-sum game. A futures contract – whereby a buyer purchases a derivative contract to buy an underlying asset from the seller for a specified price on a specified date – is also an example of a zero-sum game. This is because the fundamental principle of these contracts is that they are agreements between two parties, and any gain made by one party must be matched by a loss sustained by the other.

If the price of the underlying asset increases before the expiration date the buyer may exercise/ close the options/ futures contract. The buyers gain and corresponding sellers loss will be the difference between the strike price and value of the underlying asset at that time. Hence, the net transfer of wealth is zero.

Swaps, which involve the exchange of cash flows from two different financial instruments, are also considered a zero-sum game. Consider a standard interest rate swap whereby Firm A pays a fixed rate and receives a floating rate; correspondingly Firm B pays a floating rate and receives a fixed rate. If rates increase, then Firm A will gain, and Firm B will lose by the rate differential (floating rate – fixed rate). If rates decrease, then Firm A will lose, and Firm B will gain by the rate differential (fixed rate – floating rate).

Whilst derivatives trading may be considered a zero-sum game, it is important to remember that this is not an absolute truth. The financial markets are complex and multifaceted, with a range of participants engaging in a variety of activities. While some trades may result in a simple transfer of wealth from one party to another, the market as a whole is not purely competitive, and many transactions serve important economic functions.

The stock market is an excellent example of a positive-sum game, often erroneously labelled as a zero-sum game. This is a zero-sum fallacy: the perception that one trader in the stock market may only increase the value of their holdings if another trader decreases their holdings.

The primary goal of the stock market is to match buyers and sellers, but the prevailing price is the one which equilibrates supply and demand. Stock prices generally move according to changes in future expectations, such as acquisition announcements, upside earnings surprises, or improved guidance.

For instance, if Company C announces a deal to acquire Company D, and investors believe that the acquisition will result in synergies and hence increased profitability for Company C, there will be an increased demand for Company C stock. In this scenario, all existing holders of Company C stock will enjoy gains without incurring any corresponding measurable losses to other players.

Furthermore, in the long run, the stock market is a positive-sum game. As economic growth occurs, demand increases, output increases, companies grow, and company valuations increase, leading to value creation and wealth addition in the market.