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Carbohydrate-insulin hypothesis

With funding from the Laura and John Arnold Foundation, in 2012, Taubes co-founded the Nutrition Science Initiative (NuSI), with the aim of raising over $200 million to undertake a " Manhattan Project For Nutrition" and validate the hypothesis. Intermediate results, published in the American Journal of Clinical Nutrition did not provide convincing evidence of any advantage to a low-carbohydrate diet as compared to diets of other composition. This study revealed a marginal (~100 kcal/d) but statistically significant effect of the ketogenic diet to increase 24-hour energy expenditure measured in a respiratory chamber, but the effect waned over time. Ultimately a very low-calorie, ketogenic diet (of 5% carbohydrate) "was not associated with significant loss of fat mass" compared to a non-specialized diet with the same calories; there was no useful "metabolic advantage". In 2017, Kevin Hall, a National Institutes of Health researcher hired to assist with the project, wrote that the carbohydrate-insulin hypothesis had been falsified by experiment. Hall wrote "the rise in obesity prevalence may be primarily due to increased consumption of refined carbohydrates, but the mechanisms are likely to be quite different from those proposed by the carbohydrate–insulin model."