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Prognosis

The availability of treatments that modify the course of multiple sclerosis beginning in the 1990s, known as disease-modifying therapies (DMTs), has improved prognosis. These treatments can reduce relapses and slow progression, but there is no cure.

The prognosis of MS depends on the subtype of the disease, and there is considerable individual variation in the progression of the disease. In relapsing MS, the most common subtype, a 2016 cohort study found that after a median of 16.8 years from onset, one in ten needed a walking aid, and almost two in ten transitioned to secondary progressive MS, a form characterized by more progressive decline. With treatments available in the 2020s, relapses can be eliminated or substantially reduced. However, "silent progression" of the disease still occurs.

In addition to secondary progressive MS (SPMS), a small proportion of people with MS (10–15%) experience progressive decline from the onset, known as primary progressive MS (PPMS). Most treatments have been approved for use in relapsing MS; there are fewer treatments with lower efficacy for progressive forms of MS. The prognosis for progressive MS is worse, with faster accumulation of disability, though with considerable individual variation. In untreated PPMS, the median time from onset to requiring a walking aid is estimated as seven years. In SPMS, a 2014 cohort study reported that people required a walking aid after an average of five years from onset of SPMS, and were chair or bed-bound after an average of fifteen years.

After diagnosis of MS, characteristics that predict a worse course are male sex, older age, and greater disability at the time of diagnosis; female sex is associated with a higher relapse rate. Currently, no biomarker can accurately predict disease progression in every patient. Spinal cord lesions, abnormalities on MRI, and more brain atrophy are predictive of a worse course, though brain atrophy as a predictor of disease course is experimental and not used in clinical practice. Early treatment leads to a better prognosis, but a higher relapse frequency when treated with DMTs is associated with a poorer prognosis. A 60-year longitudinal population study conducted in Norway found that those with MS had a life expectancy seven years shorter than the general population. Median life expectancy for RRMS patients was 77.8 years and 71.4 years for PPMS, compared to 81.8 years for the general population. Life expectancy for men was five years shorter than for women.