information:classification
Water cycle intensification due to climate change

Since the middle of the 20th century, human-caused climate change has resulted in observable changes in the global water cycle. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report in 2021 predicted that these changes will continue to grow significantly at the global and regional level. These findings are a continuation of scientific consensus expressed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report from 2007 and other special reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change which had already stated that the water cycle will continue to intensify throughout the 21st century.

The effects of climate change on the water cycle are profound and have been described as an intensification or a strengthening of the water cycle (also called hydrologic cycle). This effect has been observed since at least 1980. One example is when heavy rain events become even stronger. The effects of climate change on the water cycle have important negative effects on the availability of freshwater resources, as well as other water reservoirs such as oceans, ice sheets, the atmosphere and soil moisture. The water cycle is essential to life on Earth and plays a large role in the global climate system and ocean circulation. The warming of our planet is expected to be accompanied by changes in the water cycle for various reasons. For example, a warmer atmosphere can contain more water vapor which has effects on evaporation and rainfall.

The underlying cause of the intensifying water cycle is the increased amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which lead to a warmer atmosphere through the greenhouse effect. Fundamental laws of physics explain how the saturation vapor pressure in the atmosphere increases by 7% when temperature rises by 1 °C. This relationship is known as the Clausius-Clapeyron equation.