[{"bbox": [145, 151, 1083, 212], "category": "Text", "text": "of loss of livelihoods, notably joining the large numbers already displaced or radical terrorist groups."}, {"bbox": [145, 223, 1083, 374], "category": "Text", "text": "The scale, severity and complexity of the economic and social development impact of the current instability is far-reaching and the consequences in terms of human development losses could become irreversible. Depending on how the situation evolves, Afghanistan's gross domestic product could see a contraction of around 30% by the middle of 2022. In the worst case scenario, this could bring Afghanistan to the precipice of near universal poverty."}, {"bbox": [145, 385, 1083, 625], "category": "Text", "text": "No mass outflows of people from Afghanistan to neighbouring countries through official land borders have been observed by mid-October 2021, as these borders remain closed, except for people with valid travel documents and for commercial purposes. UNHCR has recorded 38 650 newly arriving Afghans potentially in need of international protection to neighbouring countries since the start of the year. However, the number of newly arrived Afghans are understood to be higher than reported as many Afghans continue to cross into Iran undetected and, for fear of being apprehended by authorities, do not make themselves known to the government or to UNHCR."}, {"bbox": [145, 636, 1083, 876], "category": "Text", "text": "For the time being, displacement mostly remains within the country. There are currently almost 665 000 newly IDPs in Afghanistan, induced by conflict since January 2021. This is in addition to the estimated 2.9 million IDPs by conflict as of 31 December 2020. A further 110 000 are estimated to have been displaced by natural disasters (mainly the ongoing drought) until June 2021. The majority of those are minors and in need of special support. Over 143 000 IDPs are estimated to have returned to their places of origin. Over 948 000 undocumented Afghans have returned to Afghanistan in 2021 (as of October). Many of these returns are believed to be forced. IDPs and returnees are among the most vulnerable populations in Afghanistan."}, {"bbox": [145, 930, 411, 960], "category": "Section-header", "text": "## 2.2 Problem Analysis"}, {"bbox": [145, 971, 234, 999], "category": "Section-header", "text": "### General"}, {"bbox": [145, 1012, 1083, 1193], "category": "Text", "text": "Afghanistan is facing a severe economic crisis, collapsing public finances, increasing pressure on the banking system, a loss of effective governance structures, disruption to essential services, a persistent drought and ongoing outbreaks of infectious diseases are immediate threats to the livelihoods, markets, health, and nutrition of nearly the entire Afghan population. The collapse of services and the economy and unprecedented levels of food insecurity and unemployment could lead to further displacement, including outside the country."}, {"bbox": [145, 1204, 333, 1231], "category": "Section-header", "text": "### Essential services"}, {"bbox": [145, 1244, 348, 1272], "category": "Section-header", "text": "#### Health and nutrition"}, {"bbox": [145, 1285, 1083, 1376], "category": "Text", "text": "The end of donor support to the national primary health programme would lead to an almost complete collapse of basic health delivery, with impacts across nearly all communities in Afghanistan, and beyond in the region:"}, {"bbox": [183, 1387, 1083, 1474], "category": "List-item", "text": "- Nearly 25,000 health professionals would be laid off, including 7,500 women. Provision from government-run health facilities and hospitals has already ceased due to lack of funds."}, {"bbox": [183, 1487, 1083, 1607], "category": "List-item", "text": "- Assuming even a 40-50% decrease in healthcare coverage, mortality among women and children would increase by approximately 33% over the next year. This increase in mortality would result in more than 26,000 additional child deaths and 1,900 maternal deaths, according to the World Bank."}, {"bbox": [1069, 1631, 1083, 1654], "category": "Page-footer", "text": "9"}]