[{"bbox": [72, 107, 301, 138], "category": "Section-header", "text": "## 2. RATIONALE"}, {"bbox": [101, 171, 235, 197], "category": "Section-header", "text": "### 2.1. Context"}, {"bbox": [82, 241, 1146, 530], "category": "Text", "text": "Afghans are one of the largest protracted forcibly displaced populations in the world. For more than four decades, generations of Afghan refugees have lived in Iran and Pakistan. They have both benefitted from socio-economic support and protection services, as well as endured discrimination, hardship and exclusion. According to UNHCR, there are currently some 1.4 million officially registered Afghan refugees in Pakistan, the second largest refugee hosting country in the world, and 950 000 Afghan refugees officially registered in Iran, the fourth largest refugee hosting country in the world. Central Asian countries, especially Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, have not witnessed a large influx of Afghan refugees. In addition to the refugee population, Pakistan and Iran host large numbers of undocumented Afghans – an estimated 2 million in Iran and more than 1 million in Pakistan – of whom some may also be in need of international protection, even if not individually registered and recognised as refugees by the respective Governments."}, {"bbox": [82, 559, 1145, 674], "category": "Text", "text": "In the first half of 2021, the increased violence by the Taliban and the socio-economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic have contributed to a considerable increase in both internal and cross-border displacements: 20 000 to 30 000 persons (including 600 to 700 families, but the large majority individual migrants) have been leaving Afghanistan every week since in June, July and August 2021, most of them to Iran¹¹."}, {"bbox": [82, 703, 1146, 1051], "category": "Text", "text": "The military victory of the Taliban has fundamentally changed the security, political and economic situation in the country. One the one hand, hostilities between the Afghan National Army and the Taliban have stopped, considerably reducing the pressure on rural communities to flee the violence of military confrontation. On the negative side, the economic situation has deteriorated drastically: foreign aid has come to a halt and public officials report not having received their salaries. Banks face a shortage of cash and foreign currencies. This economic crisis is compounded by the disasters and climate change related events (droughts, floods, pests and diseases). The result is food insecurity, limited access to land, inadequate shelter, limited services including healthcare, education, legal assistance, identification, documentation, and very scarce livelihoods opportunities. All these factors have put pressure on the coping mechanisms of the population, resulting in further displacement as the last option for many. According to OCHA, 18.4 million Afghans are in humanitarian need, and more than a third of the population (14.1 million) is now facing emergency or crisis levels of food insecurity."}, {"bbox": [82, 1079, 1146, 1311], "category": "Text", "text": "As the overall situation and its various components (political, economic and security) remain unpredictable, there is a high probability of large population movements into the neighbouring countries. Anecdotal evidence already suggests that increased numbers of Afghans are crossing the borders to Iran and Pakistan irregularly on a daily basis. Constrained humanitarian access and logistics - especially in remote and conflict-affected locations - are currently hindering more detailed needs assessments, thus preventing verification of the full extent of internal displacement and undermining the provision of assistance within Afghanistan. The prospect for safe and dignified return of Afghan refugees from the region to Afghanistan and their sustainable reintegration in the short- to medium-term is becoming less likely."}, {"bbox": [82, 1339, 1146, 1455], "category": "Text", "text": "Despite the changed security situation, it is likely that Afghan migration dynamics will remain characterised by parallel out- and inflows: Not only is circular labour migration expected to remain a relevant phenomenon, especially in light of a deteriorating economy, but historic precedent also shows that some parts of the population are willing to return to Taliban held areas, if the situation is perceived as stable."}, {"bbox": [101, 1474, 340, 1504], "category": "Section-header", "text": "### 2.2. Problem Analysis"}, {"bbox": [82, 1545, 1145, 1602], "category": "Text", "text": "The Afghan context is projected to remain volatile and continue to be influenced by regional political configurations and the active conflict at a given time."}, {"bbox": [72, 1638, 598, 1663], "category": "Footnote", "text": "¹¹ Figures from International Organisation for Migration (IOM)"}, {"bbox": [1051, 1663, 1157, 1687], "category": "Page-footer", "text": "Page 5 of 25"}]