[{"bbox": [143, 148, 1087, 411], "category": "Text", "text": "be involved in afforestation, rangeland and energy scheme management. Involvement of stakeholders has started during the identification and formulation phases and the evaluation of the 10 years EU support to the Panj-Amu Integrated Water Resources Management. Support and capacity building of Community Development Councils (CDCs) will ensure continued ecosystem protection and afforestation interventions and cost-covering management of energy generation and distribution. Capacity building of CDCs and a strong focus on gender will contribute to the sustainability of the present action. The program will immediately support local development and, in the medium term, increase mitigation and adaptation, in the North-Eastern region."}, {"bbox": [143, 422, 663, 452], "category": "Section-header", "text": "### 1.1.3 Priority areas for support/problem analysis"}, {"bbox": [143, 463, 1087, 1014], "category": "Text", "text": "Based upon recent climate change projections and observed trends, Afghanistan's environment will experience considerable changes over the remainder of this century. Projections under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 scenario predict a strong increase in mean annual temperature for the Panj-Amu River Basin: by 2030s a warming of 2 degrees, by 2060s 4 degrees and by 2090s 6 degrees³. Since 1960 mean annual rainfall in Afghanistan has decreased by 2% per decade, with decreases of 6.6% per decade during spring. Under the SRES A2 scenario further decreases of precipitation in the Panj-Amu River Basin, compared to the mean of 1970-1999, of 3% by 2030s, 8% by 2060s and 12% by 2090s are predicted⁴. Much of this decrease is expected during the spring months when the main plant growth takes place. The decrease of precipitation combined with temperature increase and the related evapotranspiration will negatively affect the entire hydrological cycle from snow coverage and availability of irrigation water to moisture stored in the soil, resulting in reduced agricultural productivity and in changes of ecosystems. The ongoing and predicted climate change exacerbates the existing land-use and natural resources management problems in Afghanistan and the program region, causing ecosystem degradation, biodiversity loss, reduced ecosystem services, income insecurity, less livelihood opportunities and higher disaster risk, resulting in poverty and migration pressure. The upper watersheds of the Panj-Amu Basin are the main \"Water tower\" to millions of people, thus climate change and unsustainable use of ecosystems heavily impact people beyond the region."}, {"bbox": [143, 1019, 1087, 1396], "category": "Text", "text": "In the Panj-Amu River Basin rangelands, mixed with shrub and woodlands, are the dominating ecosystem type. Biomass from these ecosystems is the main energy source for heating and cooking in rural households. Growing livestock numbers, in many areas beyond the carrying capacity, and unsustainable grazing practices prevent regeneration of harvested biomass and cause the degradation of vegetation, soil compaction, reduced ground water replenishment and increased erosion. Degraded rangelands and woodlands with deteriorated biodiversity are less resilient and lack the potential of adaptation of ecosystems and provide less land-use options under changing climate conditions. Furthermore in this region, the majority of arable lands are rain-fed (la'lmi), often on sloping lands. Small plots in mountain valleys and larger areas in the lower parts are irrigated. Rain-fed farming is prone to climate change and with reduced spring rainfall and higher aridity cereal yields drop and become unreliable. Changing precipitation patterns, accelerated melting of glaciers and ecosystem degradation in the upper watersheds affect larger irrigation schemes."}, {"bbox": [143, 1469, 1028, 1522], "category": "Footnote", "text": "³ Landell Mills 2016: Feasibility Study for the Panj-Amu River Basin Project (DCI-ASIE/2015/361-001)\nDraft Final Report Supplementary Document 13 - Climate Risk Assessment and Management Report, p. 5"}, {"bbox": [143, 1518, 1028, 1569], "category": "Footnote", "text": "⁴ Landell Mills 2016: Feasibility Study for the Panj-Amu River Basin Project (DCI-ASIE/2015/361-001)\nDraft Final Report Supplementary Document 13 - Climate Risk Assessment and Management Report, p. 7"}, {"bbox": [602, 1606, 629, 1629], "category": "Page-footer", "text": "[7]"}]