[{"bbox": [97, 152, 1134, 313], "category": "Text", "text": "target to FY2027/28 instead of FY2025/26. The fiscal gains (large primary surpluses of over 6% of GDP) attained under the 2 successive agreements with the IMF (2013-2019) allowed the Government to respond to the unprecedented shock with the implementation of the COVID-19 Allocation of Resources for Employees (CARE) Programme. Nearly 1.6% of GDP was used to support this program that aimed at providing temporary income support to workers, grants to businesses, and social assistance payments to vulnerable segments of the population exacerbated by the crisis."}, {"bbox": [97, 337, 1033, 364], "category": "Text", "text": "The country started to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic as displayed by the latest data available:"}, {"bbox": [135, 365, 1134, 471], "category": "List-item", "text": "* Notably, GDP has grown by 6.7% in September-December 2021 quarter marking the 6th consecutive quarter of growth (economic growth rate in calendar year 2021 reached 4.6%). The estimated growth reflected a rebound in economic activity in the context of the easing of restrictions which positively impacted commerce and tourism related activities."}, {"bbox": [135, 471, 1134, 524], "category": "List-item", "text": "* The gradual economic recovery is reflected also in lower unemployment rate that returned to low pre-pandemic levels (6.2% in January 2022 compared to 8.8% for the same quarter of 2021)."}, {"bbox": [135, 524, 1134, 683], "category": "List-item", "text": "* Annual inflation rate at end April 2022 stood at 11.8% well above the Bank of Jamaica (BoJ) target of 4% - 6%. As response, the Bank of Jamaica increased the policy interest rate to 5%, in order to bring inflation back to the target range, but tangible results are yet to be seen. Brent crude oil prices climbed to over US$100/barrel due to the Russian - Ukraine war and exert upward pressure on food and fuel prices worldwide. Although Jamaica has few direct trade or financial ties to Russia or Ukraine, the island is heavily exposed to external inflationary pressures given the country is big importer of both fuel and food."}, {"bbox": [135, 683, 850, 707], "category": "List-item", "text": "* Debt-to-GDP ratio is estimated to have retreated to 96.3% in March 2022."}, {"bbox": [97, 709, 1134, 948], "category": "Text", "text": "Fiscal performance continued to improve in the context COVID-19 impact; for the December 2021 quarter, Central Government's operations recorded a slight fiscal deficit of JMD 0.3 billion (0.0% of GDP), compared to the deficit of JMD 9.0 billion (0.5% of GDP) for the corresponding quarter in 2020. The fiscal outturn for the review period reflected higher tax revenues partly offset by higher expenditure. The current account for FY2021/22 is projected to improve to a surplus of 2.8% of GDP from a deficit of 1.0% of GDP in FY2020/21. This projection is mainly based on increased travel related expenditure, higher remittances inflows and lower investment income outflows for the fiscal year partly offset by higher imports as well as higher transportation outflows related to elevated freight charges. The IMF estimates GDP growth of 8% in FY2021/22 (in line with BoJ forecast of 7% to 10%) and may slow-down to 3.5% in FY2022/23."}, {"bbox": [97, 973, 1134, 1317], "category": "Text", "text": "While the overall outlook for Jamaica looks relatively optimistic, crime and corruption persist in being quoted as main challenges to a stronger economic growth while continuous fiscal consolidation could generate reform fatigue and loss of social support. In terms of external vulnerability, the most probable sources of external shocks for Jamaica's economy, as a small and open economy, may come from significant increases of oil price (as already observed), economic slowdown in trade partners (which can impact tourism and remittances) or adverse weather conditions. Although still exposed to external risks, Jamaica is in a better position to cope with external shocks. The continuous rise in international reserves (of about USD 4 billion at end March 2022) and the renewed access to capital markets provide the Government with more policy options to respond to any unforeseen event compared to past years. The latest rating from Moody's Investors Service dated 23 November 2021, affirmed Jamaica's rating at 'B2' with the outlook remaining stable. In addition, on March 9, 2022, Fitch Ratings Agency affirmed the Government of Jamaica's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B+' and maintained the outlook at \"Stable\". These ratings confirm Jamaica's strong commitment to macroeconomic stability and fiscal consolidation."}, {"bbox": [97, 1319, 1134, 1369], "category": "Text", "text": "In conclusion, the authorities are pursuing a stability-oriented macroeconomic policy and the eligibility criterion is met."}, {"bbox": [85, 1385, 437, 1412], "category": "Section-header", "text": "### 2.3.3 Public Financial Management"}, {"bbox": [97, 1439, 1134, 1600], "category": "Text", "text": "The latest Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability - PEFA 2016 assessing the status of Jamaica's PFM systems concluded that Jamaica's PFM systems have strengthened in recent years and affirmed that Jamaica had a strong PFM system with important progress achieved since the prior assessment in 2012. Some of the areas that recorded significant progress included: budget reliability, transparency of public finances, management of assets and liabilities and Policy-based fiscal strategy and budgeting. However, the PEFA assessment highlighted notable weaknesses in aspects of risk management, multi-year budgeting and treasury operations."}, {"bbox": [1028, 1680, 1144, 1706], "category": "Page-footer", "text": "Page 12 of 42"}]