[{"bbox": [97, 153, 1133, 206], "category": "Text", "text": "January 2023, the EU has established an online *Basic Needs Forum* gathering key international NGO partners on a monthly basis."}, {"bbox": [97, 231, 274, 255], "category": "Section-header", "text": "## Economic context"}, {"bbox": [97, 269, 1133, 560], "category": "Text", "text": "One in every two Afghans is affected by monetary poverty⁹ and 15.8 million people are projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity between November 2023 and March 2024 (IPC Phase 3 and above)¹⁰. However, more households (38%) are able to meet their basic needs in 2023 compared to 2022 (36%) and 2021 (30%)¹¹. Already in pre-Taliban times, poverty and food insecurity have primarily been the results of weak public services and the lack of a stable income by households, but they have been exacerbated by the crisis triggered in August 2021. Any meagre gains in terms of living conditions and food security in 2023 are largely attributable to external aid. However, funding from international donors is expected to further decrease with bleak outlook for 2024 across all sectors, and affecting humanitarian assistance, as well as basic needs and livelihoods support. Only 54.3%¹² of the 2023 requirements of the Afghanistan Humanitarian Response Plan have been met, while USD 3.06 billion are required to reach the 17.3 million most vulnerable people among the 23.7 million Afghans in need of humanitarian assistance in 2024¹³."}, {"bbox": [97, 574, 1133, 812], "category": "Text", "text": "The sharp economic contraction in the aftermath of the Taliban takeover further deteriorated during 2021-2022, with a 25.7%¹⁴ GDP decline and a decrease in per capita income from USD 512 in 2020 to USD 352 in 2022¹⁵. In 2023, the economy has somewhat stabilised at lower levels, but any real GDP growth is likely to be jeopardised by population growth, financial challenges, and scale-downs in international aid. Whereas food prices decreased, commodity supply improved, regional/international trade resumed, and the Afghani (AFN) appreciated against its major trading currencies (but depreciated in January 2024), the domestic demand remains weak. The year-on-year headline inflation has further dropped to negative 9.7%¹⁶ in December 2023, confirming the deflationary dynamic since April 2023. Benefiting consumers in the short term, a persistent deflation will put at risk the meagre and fragile economic stabilisation achieved."}, {"bbox": [97, 826, 1133, 1223], "category": "Text", "text": "From December 2021 to July 2023, approximately USD 2.84 billion (equivalent to EUR 2.69 billion based on the exchange rate on 13 October 2023) were brought into Afghanistan by UN cash shipments for the United Nations and its partners to counter the national liquidity crisis and thus, allow the implementation of their aid programmes. Weekly allowed cash withdrawals from banks for pre-August 15 deposits have been increased by the central bank (Da Afghanistan Bank - DAB) and no limits are imposed on fresh deposits. Cash availability remains constrained and bank branches crowded particularly during periods of salary payments. Parallel informal funds transfer systems, such as Hawala, continue to operate and in absence of a reliable banking system, have become widely used by aid implementors. Afghanistan's ability to regain the confidence of the international financial system is conditioned by DAB's independence from political influence, adequate Anti-Money Laundering/Countering the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) controls, and third-party monitoring. However, the US-funded third-party assessment of DAB conducted mid-2023 (but not made public or shared with international partners) alledgedly concludes that the central bank lacks independence from the Taliban regime and has severe deficiencies in AML/CFT capacities. Until a credible banking system is established in Afghanistan, the release of DAB's frozen assets of USD 3.5 billion (equivalent to EUR 3.32 billion based on the exchange rate on 13 October 2023) with the Swiss-based Afghan Fund is highly unlikely."}, {"bbox": [97, 1235, 1133, 1315], "category": "Text", "text": "Revenue collection (AFN 171 billion¹⁷) by the Taliban de facto administration has increased by 5.7%¹⁸ for the initial 10 months of fiscal year 2023/2024 (compared to the same period in the previous fiscal year). The national income has increased due to restored imports, increased exports, new taxes and fees, mining royalties, and reduced"}, {"bbox": [86, 1356, 666, 1380], "category": "Footnote", "text": "⁹ Afghanistan Economic Monitor, The World Bank, October 30, 2023"}, {"bbox": [86, 1381, 804, 1405], "category": "Footnote", "text": "¹⁰ https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/en/c/1156740/?iso3=AFG"}, {"bbox": [86, 1405, 797, 1429], "category": "Footnote", "text": "¹¹ Afghanistan Welfare Monitoring Survey, Round 3, The World Bank, October 2023"}, {"bbox": [86, 1429, 462, 1453], "category": "Footnote", "text": "¹² https://fts.unocha.org/plans/1117/summary"}, {"bbox": [86, 1453, 754, 1477], "category": "Footnote", "text": "¹³ Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan Afghanistan, OCHA, December 2023"}, {"bbox": [86, 1477, 1142, 1524], "category": "Footnote", "text": "¹⁴ Two years in review: Changes in Afghan Economy, Households and Cross-Cutting Sectors (August 2021 to August 2023), UNDP, December 2023"}, {"bbox": [86, 1524, 1142, 1571], "category": "Footnote", "text": "¹⁵ Two years in review: Changes in Afghan Economy, Households and Cross-Cutting Sectors (August 2021 to August 2023), UNDP, December 2023"}, {"bbox": [86, 1571, 640, 1597], "category": "Footnote", "text": "¹⁶ Afghanistan Economic Monitor, The World Bank, January 2024"}, {"bbox": [86, 1597, 640, 1621], "category": "Footnote", "text": "¹⁷ Afghanistan Economic Monitor, The World Bank, January 2024"}, {"bbox": [86, 1621, 640, 1645], "category": "Footnote", "text": "¹⁸ Afghanistan Economic Monitor, The World Bank, January 2024"}, {"bbox": [1038, 1681, 1143, 1706], "category": "Page-footer", "text": "Page 8 of 38"}]