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The EBU Radio Assembly in Dublin, April 2007 Radio in Europe: Trends and Audiences general trends digital distribution online activity and reach future models Alexander Shulzycki European Broadcasting Union Broad Trends

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The ebu radio assembly in dublin april 2007 l.jpg
The EBU Radio Assembly in Dublin, April 2007

Radio in Europe: Trends and Audiences

general trends

digital distribution

online activity and reach

future models

Alexander Shulzycki European Broadcasting Union


Broad trends l.jpg
Broad Trends

  • More distribution platforms, more channels, and a stable but gradually eroding market share for principle PSB radio channels.

  • Listening time to traditional radio starting to register small average declines in some markets.

  • The degree of audience erosion is inversely proportional to the age of the listener in many markets.

  • Despite the emergence of new distribution platforms and internet services the most powerful impacts on listening audiences continue to derive from traditional causes: competition, regulation, funding as well as lifestyle and demographic changes.

  • Radio as a proportion of ad spend is expected to be flat through 2008 while Internet advertising is forecast to overtake worldwide radio advertising in 2009.

...


Time spent by media type l.jpg
Time spent by media type

Average Hours Spent by Media Type

Average hours by media type

In a typical 7 day week, approximately how many hours do you spend…?

Source: EIAA

Radio has the highest absolute usage.


Cross media usage l.jpg
Cross Media Usage

When Mainly Watching TV

When Mainly Listening to the Radio

When Mainly Using the Internet

TV

MAGAZINE

INTERNET

INTERNET

MAGAZINE

MAGAZINE

32%

27%

8%

30%

28%

32%

RADIO

TV

INTERNET

RADIO

NEWSPAPER

RADIO

TV

NEWSPAPER

33%

40%

8%

8%

24%

NEWSPAPER

6%

Source: EIAA

Radio has the highest overlap with other media.


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Youth Audience decline

Change Time Spent Listening in France (1995-2005)

15-24

25-34

35-49

50-65

65 yrs

0%

0.0%

-5%

-3.8%

-10%

-10.2%

-15%

-13.5%

-16.3%

-20%

Source: Radio France

Sources : Médiamétrie – Enquêtes Laura – 15 ans et plus – LàV


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Combined PSB radio share versus long-term growth

Weaker share but growing

Strong share and growing

Strong share but declining

Weaker share and declining

For now ,important impacts on audiences continue to be competition, regulation, funding, lifestyle / demographic changes


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Internet reach for Radio Members

  • ARD1, BBC2 and SR radio sites stand out as the most popular radio web-sites among EBU Members. These sites had an average of 14.8% Internet reach per month in 2006.

  • Seven out of ten sites had in 2006 less than five percent average monthly reach.

  • Interestingly the Spanish radio site COPE.es has higher reach than RNE.es even though it represents only one channel while RNE contains several.

Source: ComScore Internet database

1Aggregate of all main ARD radio channel sites

2Aggregate of all main BBC radio channel sites


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Digital radio distribution (Member survey*)

  • More than 35% of the organisations claiming to have no development of DAB, T-DMB, DRM or DVB-H.

  • However several members claim to perform digital tests to prepare for future launches of these techniques.

  • DAB is the most implemented digital radio service with full roll-out, both commercial and PS broadcasting, within 20% of the organisations.

  • The majority of the respondents expect digital signal coverage and reciever ownership to stay under 10% for all these services during the coming five years.

*EBU Member survey conducted in February-March 2007. 32 member organization responses


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Digital radio distribution (Member survey)

  • Content aspects and affordable receivers available on the market seem to be important drivers behind a future digital radio success.

  • Terrestrial DVB and Satellite DTH are considered to be the most important combined platforms for digital radio broadcasting. (see chart)

  • Many respondents believe that digital radio, primarily DAB, and Internet radio will become the predominant future platforms even though the analogue FM platforms will stay dominant at least in the near future.

  • More than 80% of the respondents claim to have no plan for an analogue switch-off. However in those organisations where this plan is actually announced the switch-off is planned to 2012-2015 or later.


Online distribution member survey l.jpg

A majority of the respondents expect a future drop in analogue audience shares, a decrease of 5-10% or even more in coming five years. Examples of identified, important threats are:

Commercial radio stations - not keeping up with their technological developments

Special web-only channels and sites with music downloading

Changes in consumer habit patterns and widespread usage of personal audio devices

To reach youth audiences some organisations have already launched special, targeted channels while others are about to do the same. Digital and online distribution services like podcasting, streaming and radio on-demand are other examples of efforts to create a more interactive environment to attract this segment.

A strong majority of the Members has the strategic objective to make digital and online radio distribution available on all platforms. The major obstacle to achieve these goals seems however to be limited financial support.

Online distribution (Member survey)


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Future opportunities and threats for PS radio analogue audience shares, a decrease of 5-10% or even more in coming five years. Examples of identified, important threats are: (Member survey)

  • There are three important cultural/lifestyle changes that stand out when it comes to influencing future radio audiences:

    • Increased mobility and mobile phone usage

    • Widespread general/wireless Internet access

    • Society becoming more and more individualized

  • Respondents believe these influences will increase the pressure on radio to offer a broader variety of content, higher availability on multiple platforms. Consumers will become more demanding wanting to access content where, when and how they want.

  • The respondents give many examples of new revenue opportunities:

    • Radio on-demand, publishing or archive content

    • Implement « Buy-now » links to stores with online based services

    • Pay podcasting for special/original/non-broadcast exclusive content

    • Use interactivity possible through digitalization to create new partnerships with other editors or distributors ( Amazon, Internet access suppliers etc.)


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Future of Radio analogue audience shares, a decrease of 5-10% or even more in coming five years. Examples of identified, important threats are: The Public Radio Prospective

  • Public broadcasters must offer audiences new content that is not available on analogue platforms.

  • EBU Members must be present on new digital platforms:

     Digital Audio Broadcasting (DAB)

     Digital Multimedia Broadcasting (DMB)

     Digital Video Broadcasting (DVB)

     Radio on TV (DTT Radio)

     Mobile phones and 3G Radio

     Digital Radio Mondiale (DRM)

     Satellite radio

     Internet & Radio podcasting (fixed, wimax)

  • Public broadcasters must form alliances with key stakeholders.

  • PSBs need to convince their national regulators of the provision of adequate spectrum

Source: EBU Digital Strategy Group (Leif Lønsmann)

“The move to digital radio broadcasting is unlikely to be dominated by any one distribution platform.”


Future of radio the commercial prospective global analysis l.jpg

Radio analogue audience shares, a decrease of 5-10% or even more in coming five years. Examples of identified, important threats are:

Broadcast radio

www

Future of RadioThe Commercial Prospective (Global Analysis)

Source: Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, 2005

Revenue expected from emergence of subscription radio


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Future of Radio analogue audience shares, a decrease of 5-10% or even more in coming five years. Examples of identified, important threats are: Results of DRACE Analysis

  • By 2015 FM will still be a significant distribution platform in Europe.

  • There will be distinct national solutions and multiple co-existing digital systems for radio delivery.

  • DAB was seen as important primarily in countries with existing networks.

  • Radio will offer much more personalized and specialized content - also with multimedia elements- which will be then actively selected by the users, but...

  • continued belief in traditional strengths of radio: mobility, easy access, real-time broadcasts, localism and integration with the community, personalities, entertainment, traditional journalistic and artistic audio programming.

Source: DRACE – Digital Radio Cultures in Europe

Research based on 43 expert interviews


Future scenarios for the radio media l.jpg
Future scenarios for the Radio media analogue audience shares, a decrease of 5-10% or even more in coming five years. Examples of identified, important threats are:

Multimedia, on-demand and subscriptions are gradually becomingas important as traditional broadcast radio

‘Digital diversity’

‘Multimedia market’

Content consumption

Radio will become digital by using different technologies in different markets. No dominant design on a global level.

Digital radio will have a dominant design: a globally used technology or a combination of fully compatible technologies

Delivery technology

Free broadcast delivery and linear/real-time consumption of radio content is the most important way to use both analogue and digital radio.

‘Towers of Babel’

‘DAB Dream’

Source: DRACE – Digital Radio Cultures in Europe


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Future of Radio analogue audience shares, a decrease of 5-10% or even more in coming five years. Examples of identified, important threats are: General Point

The digitalization of radio in Europe will be relatively slow. This presents some important advantages.

  • Manage change easier

  • Spread investments

  • Improve and refine measurement

  • Gauge social/lifestyle and demographics changes

  • Stable revenue streams

  • Limited direct competition

    Use your time well.

* * *


Traditional form factor personal listening l.jpg
Traditional, form factor, personal listening analogue audience shares, a decrease of 5-10% or even more in coming five years. Examples of identified, important threats are:

«Beautiful – beyond belief in tone and styling»


Family l.jpg
family analogue audience shares, a decrease of 5-10% or even more in coming five years. Examples of identified, important threats are:

«Splendid furniture craftsmenship combines

with radio science...»


Value fun portabilty l.jpg
value, fun, portabilty analogue audience shares, a decrease of 5-10% or even more in coming five years. Examples of identified, important threats are:

« More fun wherever you go... »


Social l.jpg
social analogue audience shares, a decrease of 5-10% or even more in coming five years. Examples of identified, important threats are:

«It’s Spring – it’s Motorola portable time...»


Multi function l.jpg
multi-function analogue audience shares, a decrease of 5-10% or even more in coming five years. Examples of identified, important threats are:


Variety product line l.jpg
variety, product line analogue audience shares, a decrease of 5-10% or even more in coming five years. Examples of identified, important threats are:


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