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Out of order snippet? WHAT out of order snippet?

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Re: Out of order snippet? WHAT out of order snippet?
Post by Jonathan_S   » Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:58 pm

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Loren Pechtel wrote:
Jonathan_S wrote:Doing that you could make it appear that an immediate execute signal propagated at any speed you like from any point in space you like - simply by customizing the delay for each nuke.


I don't think we can--the problem is he was the trigger and my read is the blast killed him immediately. No time for a delay.
Good point - once the first nukes start going off you risk your targeted people fleeing (and surviving) if you give them time to hear about the earlier nukes before the timer on their nukes goes off.

It wouldn't be safe, from an information propagation point of view, to then pretend the other nukes were triggered from across the system. The delay necessary to do that would be too long - too much chance for targeted people to successfully flee when they get the (lightspeed) notification of the original nuke blast. Plus a delay that long between the first nuke and the next wave would fairly trivially show that a signal from the planet could have issued the delayed activations.

if you can delay all the nukes to simulated a lightspeed (or FTL) signal originating elsewhere. In that case any (lightspeed) warning of other nukes will at best arrive simultaneously with your nuke going off -- no possible warning.

On the other hand if you just want to pretend the signal came from near planetary space the delay wouldn't be long enough for anybody to get away. Even if you pretended it came from as far out as Earth's moon would be that's just a max 1.3 delay; which isn't enough time for anybody to save themselves but it could throw more suspicion on the fleet in orbit.
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Re: Out of order snippet? WHAT out of order snippet?
Post by Loren Pechtel   » Tue Oct 10, 2017 12:13 am

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pappilon wrote:
Loren Pechtel wrote:I don't think we can--the problem is he was the trigger and my read is the blast killed him immediately. No time for a delay.


Even at speed-of-light a signal has some lag, and it would need satellite transmission to reach around the planet. That line of sight propagation thing radio signals have.


You misunderstand. My read of the book is that the bomb near him detonated instantly when he pushed the button. The detonation command heads out from there, all the other bombs go off later. It's impossible to arrange it so it looks like the signal came from elsewhere because any such rigging requires a delay on the bomb near him.
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Re: Out of order snippet? WHAT out of order snippet?
Post by kzt   » Tue Oct 10, 2017 1:10 am

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Loren Pechtel wrote:You misunderstand. My read of the book is that the bomb near him detonated instantly when he pushed the button. The detonation command heads out from there, all the other bombs go off later. It's impossible to arrange it so it looks like the signal came from elsewhere because any such rigging requires a delay on the bomb near him.

One would assume that this wasn't a spontaneous surprise decision, so he had a lot of time to do all the programing and set up any detonation sequence and timing he wanted.
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Re: Out of order snippet? WHAT out of order snippet?
Post by Weird Harold   » Tue Oct 10, 2017 1:16 am

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kzt wrote:
Loren Pechtel wrote:You misunderstand. My read of the book is that the bomb near him detonated instantly when he pushed the button. ...

One would assume that this wasn't a spontaneous surprise decision, so he had a lot of time to do all the programing and set up any detonation sequence and timing he wanted.


My impression matches Loren's. He definitely had time to program any sequence he wished, but textev says he did NOT disguise the locus of the command impulse.
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Answers! I got lots of answers!

(Now if I could just find the right questions.)
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Re: Out of order snippet? WHAT out of order snippet?
Post by Loren Pechtel   » Tue Oct 10, 2017 10:16 am

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fallsfromtrees wrote:
Loren Pechtel wrote:I don't think we can--the problem is he was the trigger and my read is the blast killed him immediately. No time for a delay.

Preprogram the delay with the local bombs getting the longest delay. With just a little bit of calculation you can make things simultaneous, or even a poem to have a different epicenter (like tenth feet flagship :lol: )


Of course you can--I'm just saying that my read of the book was that he pushed the button and died immediately. Thus no delay.
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Re: Out of order snippet? WHAT out of order snippet?
Post by Loren Pechtel   » Tue Oct 10, 2017 10:17 am

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Jonathan_S wrote:
Loren Pechtel wrote:I don't think we can--the problem is he was the trigger and my read is the blast killed him immediately. No time for a delay.
Good point - once the first nukes start going off you risk your targeted people fleeing (and surviving) if you give them time to hear about the earlier nukes before the timer on their nukes goes off.


Huh??? The detonation command would travel at lightspeed. Only those with FTL comms could get warning.
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Re: Out of order snippet? WHAT out of order snippet?
Post by Jonathan_S   » Tue Oct 10, 2017 11:16 am

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Loren Pechtel wrote:I don't think we can--the problem is he was the trigger and my read is the blast killed him immediately. No time for a delay.
Loren Pechtel wrote:
Jonathan_S wrote:Good point - once the first nukes start going off you risk your targeted people fleeing (and surviving) if you give them time to hear about the earlier nukes before the timer on their nukes goes off.


Huh??? The detonation command would travel at lightspeed. Only those with FTL comms could get warning.

Sorry if I wasn't clear enough.

I was saying that, in a hypothetical where Detwiller needed to blow up the planetary bombs immediately, but still wanted to make the out-system bombs look like they were triggered from a point in deep space, the delays to simulate that, for at least some of the bombs, would be much longer than the one-way lightspeed delay from the planet. That's the "if you give them time to hear about" I meant - if instead of sending a signal saying explode now you send one saying explode a later time X.

In that hypothetical the people there would get the lightspeed news of the planetary nukes detonation at the same time their nuke got it's countdown command.
But to simulate a detonation signal propagating from, say, 30 lightniutes further out their bomb would need a 30 minute delay (so the bombs even closer to that simulated point could receive the lightspeed signal from the planet assigning them their shorter countdown timer) That 30 minutes could give people time to flee.


Basically I was walking through the hypothetical to show why you wouldn't do that. (But I guess I took a shortcut or two too many in my explanation)
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Re: Out of order snippet? WHAT out of order snippet?
Post by pappilon   » Wed Oct 11, 2017 4:28 am

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I do not think I misunderstood. I think we are trying to do the same thing in different ways. 1)Albrecht kisses his wife goodbye and presses the little red button. which (2) sends the detonate signal which simultaneously (3) detonates the bomb under his private wildlife sanctuary and (4) sends the same signal to some perhaps geosynchronous satellite which (5)because of the Line-of-Sight-Propagation issue (6) relays that signal to all other relevant satellites which in turn (7)relay the command to all nukes in their respective propagation zone. There being a slight built in light speed delay which may have been set on delay to make all detonations appear simultaneous; or might not have depending on the desired effect. These light speed delays would not be long enough for word of one explosion to reach anyone else in time to react before the last one went off.

But then again, maybe I did.
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Re: Out of order snippet? WHAT out of order snippet?
Post by Jonathan_S   » Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:49 am

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pappilon wrote:I do not think I misunderstood. I think we are trying to do the same thing in different ways. 1)Albrecht kisses his wife goodbye and presses the little red button. which (2) sends the detonate signal which simultaneously (3) detonates the bomb under his private wildlife sanctuary and (4) sends the same signal to some perhaps geosynchronous satellite which (5)because of the Line-of-Sight-Propagation issue (6) relays that signal to all other relevant satellites which in turn (7)relay the command to all nukes in their respective propagation zone. There being a slight built in light speed delay which may have been set on delay to make all detonations appear simultaneous; or might not have depending on the desired effect. These light speed delays would not be long enough for word of one explosion to reach anyone else in time to react before the last one went off.

But then again, maybe I did.

Not all the nukes were planetary - so there would be longer lightspeed delays to the further nukes. Also rechecking it's not actually clear that the explosion that killed Albrect was instantly set off.

Shadow of Victory wrote:“I’m glad,” he said…and pushed the button on the device in his right hand.
* * *
“Admiral Gold Peak!”
The sheer shock in Dominica Adenauer’s voice whipped Michelle Henke around towards her flag deck’s tactical section.
“What?” she asked urgently.
“The sensors.” For the first time, ever, Dominica Adenauer seemed unable to find the words she wanted. Or needed, at any rate. “It’s…it’s—”
Adenauer made herself stop, made herself draw a deep breath, then squared her shoulders and looked across the top of her display at Michelle.
“We’ve just picked up a series of nuclear detonations, Ma’am,” she said in a voice of flattened iron.
“A series?” Michelle heard her own voice repeat.
“Yes, Ma’am. Most of them’re on the planet, but we have at least four in-space detonations, as well. One of them—” She stopped for a moment, drew another of those steadying breath. “Three of them were in fairly small installations. One of them was a single ship, really. But the fourth…the fourth took out Lagrange One.”
That point of view shift could have been instant, but it just as easily could have been a little while later. I tend to suspect it wasn't much later, a handful of minutes at most, but we've no direct text-ev that the nukes started the instant the button was pressed.

However it appears we'd misremembered how far away the space nukes were, because later we're told "All we know is that planetary and orbital sensors confirm a total of thirty-nine separate nuclear explosions over the space of less than ninety seconds."

Still whether you play delay games to obscure the signal origin or not the lightspeed delay means your targets get no warning unless you prematurely detonated at least one nuke and then play delay games with the rest. It's that combo that gives possible warning time.

But now that I've double checked the text it's not actually written that Albrecht instantly died in a nuclear explosion when he pressed the trigger - so if there's a delay scenario there's no need to think his nuke went off immediately and screwed it up.

Also with the total sequence taking just 90 seconds that means the furthest target could be no more than 90 lightseconds away. So even if you wanted to simulate a signal coming from beyond it you'd need no more than 180 seconds (3 minutes) delay to pull that off.
So concerns about targets wandering out of the blast zone also seem overblown as 3 minutes isn't much time to outrun a nuke.


Still, for all our speculating, it's unlikely that Albrecht bothered to hide the origin. (Though it he did, simulating an orbital origin near Mike's ships would make the most sense, and that would add just a few seconds of delay)
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Re: Out of order snippet? WHAT out of order snippet?
Post by George J. Smith   » Wed Oct 11, 2017 6:14 pm

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Jonathan_S wrote:
Snip...

Still, for all our speculating, it's unlikely that Albrecht bothered to hide the origin. (Though it he did, simulating an orbital origin near Mike's ships would make the most sense, and that would add just a few seconds of delay)


If the nukes were installed when the buildings were constructed, how would anyone know where any ships would be to simulate the origin of a so called missile strike?
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