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Messages - Kelcimer

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1
General Comments / Re: Farewell to Ornery
« on: November 11, 2021, 01:42:05 PM »
LetterRip.

For clarity, I sent an email through the website. I do not know with the change over if that function still works.

It does not allow attachments so I included my email address. Let me know if you received it.

John

2
General Comments / Re: Farewell to Ornery
« on: November 08, 2021, 12:42:30 AM »
I sent you an email.

At about 50 gigs, I should hope that all pages were got at least once.

There were some pages that were of a single post with a link to the page that the post appeared on. I don't know how much to make of that. Which is to say there may be more oddities that need addressing.

That said, removing all of the "You are not logged in" pages would be a good start.

Thank you!

3
General Comments / Re: Farewell to Ornery
« on: November 07, 2021, 01:52:00 AM »
Okay. I have my new computer and attempted to look at the files in the folder to see what was going on.

The way the file names went were like so:

Quote
ultimatebb.html
ultimatebb0000-2.html
ultimatebb0000-3.html
ultimatebb0000-4.html
ultimatebb0000-5.html
ultimatebb0000-6.html
ultimatebb0000-7.html

[...]

ultimatebb0000-37.html
ultimatebb0000-38.html
ultimatebb0000-39.html
ultimatebb0000-40.html
ultimatebb0000-41.html
ultimatebb0000-42.html
ultimatebb0000-43.html

Of those 43 pages, the original and #37 were actual pages. The rest were 10KB and say "You are not logged in. You must be logged in (and registered) to perform this function"

It looks like it kept returning to each page to check those links again and again.

I was looking around in the folder and the thing locked up my new Mac Mini and it became hot to the touch. I had to shut down my brand new computer because of what it was doing. No wonder it took out my old computer.

Trying to figure out how to cut down the the overall file size is not readily apparent to me. I want to share the clone with anyone who wants it, but I wouldn't want this version to be the one shared. It needs to loose a lot of file size.

Anybody have any advice? Anybody want to take a direct crack at it?

4
General Comments / Re: Farewell to Ornery
« on: October 16, 2021, 02:23:52 PM »
I don't think that is the case. I wasn't able to confirm by directly looking at the files, because my mac didn't function that long. I want to say it went up to about 0036 on every file that I could see. We didn't have many threads go as high as 30 pages.

5
General Comments / Re: Farewell to Ornery
« on: October 15, 2021, 05:27:55 PM »
I've seen some people if they want to share files with everyone and anyone, they put it in a Google drive on kind of a throwaway account. It looks like you get 15 gigs free so I wonder if that could be an option to just let all of us and anyone else who wants it have a copy.

I like that idea.

LetterRip,

It appeared that the dublicate file names were like so:

filename.html
filename-0002.html
filename-0003.html
filename-0004.html
etc....

6
General Comments / Re: Farewell to Ornery
« on: October 14, 2021, 10:57:00 PM »
Good news/stupid news

Good news: I opened the clone website in a browser and looking around for a while. It looks like it is all there. So if they were holding off on tranfering the website or anything because of this, they need hold off no longer.

Stupid news: The file size of the whole thing is insanely huge. Compressed it is 4gigs, uncompressed it is about 50 gigs. I was trying to figure out why it was so large and it looks like it duplicated every page every couple of days. So it technically isn't a copy of the archives, but many, many copies of the archives. I made the mistake of opening a folder window to look at the pages to figure out why it was so large. Turns out Finder on a ten year old mac is not up to rendering the absurd number of duplicated file names in one window. Finder got hot and was acting weird so I did a shut down/restart and my computer did not want to restart.

When I get my new computer I plan to see about deleting the dupes, get it to a reasonable file size, and make the clone of the archives available to JoshuaD.


7
General Comments / Re: Capitalism and global responsiblity
« on: October 02, 2021, 10:53:52 PM »
What strikes me as worth asking is whether capitalism (i.e. individual companies operating out of a sense of their own self-interest alone, and globally this resulting in prosperity for all) could be seen as being put to question if scenarios like this can occur where every company is individually doing what they think best (keep overhead down, salaries minimized, profits maximized, cut corners if needed) and the net global result may be a collapse of the global economy.

One of the favorite pass times of advocates of big government is to blame capitalism for something big government did.

The governments that govern over a lot of the ports where there are backups are California, New York, etc, which are deep blue states that have encouraged a culture of fear and have the harshest measures in place to prevent the market from working.

Don't you think it is worth asking whether big government could be seen as being put into question if scenarios like this can occur where so many governments are encouraging fear, social division, and harsh measures to prevent the market from being able to function and the net global result may be a collapse of the global economy?

8
General Comments / Re: Farewell to Ornery
« on: September 30, 2021, 08:40:27 PM »
I wasn't able to get it to work on my old computer (it is a decade old). My friend was kind enough to run it on his computer.

There are about 615,000 comments, and if each button on a comment counts as a link that needs to be checked, then that is 6 links per comment. That would mean checking about about 3.6 million links. A back of the envelope calculation for every other link on each page would bring up total number of links that need to be checked to about 4 million. Does that sound about right?

I don't know why it should take this long, but my friend indicates the program is still chugging away.

9
General Comments / Re: Farewell to Ornery
« on: September 19, 2021, 12:48:10 AM »
Just to say, the web crawl is still proceeding. There are a lot of links and it is proceeding slowly.

10
General Comments / CANZUK
« on: September 12, 2021, 04:14:24 AM »
CANZUK would be an economic and military alliance between Britain, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.

Here is a brief video to give you the idea:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LbP6X9yGd9Q

My initial opinion is that this would be strategically to the benefit of the United States. A robust CANZUK would allow the United States to take more of a backseat in the international stage and be more properly non-interventionist, which I think we need to do, making it easier for us to consolidate our foreign policy. I think it would be a better ally than the European Union has or could be. Fast forward a decade or so, and it could serve as a buffer between us and various regions of the rest of the world, and be a good partner when the United States needs to mobilize. It would basically give us more options in our foreign policy stances.

What are your opinions?

11
General Comments / Re: Farewell to Ornery
« on: September 05, 2021, 11:31:47 PM »
Hello Joshua!

I wonder that as well. The program is supposed to follow every link on the forum and there are a lot of links on every page. Every member name is a link, and there is the "logged' link on each comment. Also, there are so many interconnected links. Like on a five page thread there will be the links to the other four pages at both the top and bottom of each page. So that is eight links per page on a five page thread and all of them are being checked. I understand that it makes a page for every link, so as that multiple pages have links to the same page, that winds up creating duplicate pages which it will de-duplicate after it has downloaded everything. And the forum ran for 15 years and there was a lot of interconnectedness. Maybe the fact that the Old Forums are still unstable is a factor as well.

Good to hear that we have more time.  :D

12
General Comments / Re: Farewell to Ornery
« on: September 05, 2021, 03:20:02 PM »
The cloning of the Old Forums is running.

I don't know if this will producing anything better than what JoshuaD can do with the the database for it, but it will be there as an option. Better to have it and not need it, then to need it and not have it, as it were.

The process is running slowly. There are a lot of files. It is presently 1/5th of the way through and has been running for almost two days. So if the forums can stay up through next weekend, that would be great.

13
General Comments / Re: Farewell to Ornery
« on: August 31, 2021, 08:55:22 PM »
If you're able to rip them I'd be glad to host them along with the new forums. Just some flat files that have good inter-linking would do the trick.

My friend tells me that there is a way to create copy of the Old Forums that would not be dependent upon a database. It just need the Old Forums online to copy it. If the Cards could be patent for a week or so that would be great. I need to install some software and the start copying the Old Forums in sections. I am working through system capability issues with my computer to run the software, but hope to be able to try his solution by the weekend. If successful then I'll be happy to send it to you.

14
General Comments / Re: Farewell to Ornery
« on: August 31, 2021, 01:16:44 AM »

I don't have a plan at this time to archive the old forums. It is currently archived by the wayback machine.  If get the time I can figure out how to rip the archives as a bunch of coherent flat files, I'll do that and host it as well. If not, then we'll have to depend on the wayback machine for that preservation.

I'll keep you guys updated as things move forward.

I have tried the Wayback Machine and it isn't as good as all that.

It is old forums that I am concerned with, given as it includes all the classic threads I remember. I think that a lot of folks would want them preserved, especially since they include the bulk of the content on the site.

What would you need in order to back those up and make them available to everybody else as flat files? Would you be open to getting assistance with that?

15
General Comments / Re: Farewell to Ornery
« on: August 31, 2021, 01:10:49 AM »
My one big regret, no one ever noticed that I never got a traditional Ornery welcome when I started posting.

Welcome to Ornery. You're wrong.  :D

16
General Comments / Re: Farewell to Ornery
« on: August 30, 2021, 04:30:55 AM »
What a time to randomly pop in.

I hope the Cards let the site continue with OrneryMod. When I signed back up this past year I had a great time for a couple of weeks revisiting so many old threads. I would imagine that there are some number of folks like me who might swing on by to check out the forum and walk down memory lane.

I never did do what was necessary to create an archived version of the website. It's more technical than what is my normal my wheelhouse, life is going on, and it fell through the cracks. If the Cards do not give it to OrneryMod, then a complete archived version (scrubbed for user info of course) for folks to download would be pretty sweet.

It shows how some on the right can hold a grudge.  The Ornery 8 was almost 20 years ago. Geez people move on with your lives.

It shows how PEOPLE can hold a grudge. Left/right doesn't really matter to that.

The Ornery 8 Fiasco and various other flair ups in the 2000's really shaped my approach to moderating content on any kind of forum. Not that I have had to do a lot of that, but it has come up. Communication is key.

17
General Comments / Re: Live It Off the Wall
« on: February 14, 2020, 11:27:44 PM »
Hello LetterRip!

Quote
So it is completely pointless to add more border wall.

I think it is effective, but, putting effectiveness to one side, there is still reason to do it. The American people have been promised a wall for decades and we need comprehensive immigration reform. In order to have the credibility with the American people to do comprehensive immigration reform, then we need a wall.

There is also a dilemma for the left between an unlimited welfare state on one hand and unlimited illegal immigration on the other. Unlimited illegal immigration helps flood our welfare state and makes it more unsustainable (than it already is). By controlling our southern border we make the welfare state more sustainable. If you lean left, then you should really decide which one is more important to you.

18
General Comments / Re: Preserving Ornery
« on: February 12, 2020, 03:02:37 PM »
TheDeamon,

Fair points. I suppose the ideal would be that they periodically (every five years?) create an updated sanitized version available to the members. Or just do one now and one before they close down the site. Perhaps "email the mod if you want to download the sanitized version" so that it is not just available to the public as well.


TheDrake,

That’s fantastic! If Ornery goes down tomorrow, then it's there, even if the Wayback Machine wouldn't have the most recent comments. It looks like the last time it backed up ornery was in July of 2019.

The only other problem is that there doesn’t seem to be a way to search Ornery through the Wayback Machine. You can search within the Wayback Machine for a particular website or webpage, but can’t search for a website AND a keyword within that website. Operating within the Wayback Machine, the Ornery search function doesn’t work because (I guess) it is only mapping the visual appearance of the page, and not the functionality. That search function is invaluable to sifting through 16,000+ threads. 


JoshuaD,

Fair points. I have no expertise in this area, so I apologize if I ask stupid questions.

Quote
It's relatively easy to use wget or curl to download all of the end-result html pages. The problem is that each page has a bunch of links embedded in them, and you have to change the target for each of those links if they target other pages you are archiving.  IIRC wget can do that for you as well with a little fiddling, but it still leaves a lot behind.

Being able to preserve the links would certainly be handy and being able to have a search function is essential. Using wget or curl, how similiar would a search function work compared to the Ornery’s existing search funtion?

I’m primarily concerned with threads from 2003-2008, which is a realtively narrow band of time, even as a lot of threads were generated in that space. Using Pete at Home as an example, he has 3,862 comments on the new forum and an astounding 44,193 comments on the old forum (which means he's responsible for approximately 1 out of every 14 comments on the old forum and 1 in 9 on the new forum).

Being able to quickly search the forum for particular keywords is huge.

19
General Comments / Preserving Ornery
« on: February 11, 2020, 01:44:59 AM »
I’ve spent a bunch of time this week rereading a lot of old threads. It has been a wonderful strole down memory lane. The last time I did so was in 2013 after I met OSC. But OSC is in semi-retirement right now. How long is the sit going to continue to stay up? At such time as that he passes, how long will his family keep it up? Play it out over a long enough time frame and at some point it will go away.

I was 23 when I joined and am presently 39. I can see myself at 80 wanting to take the same stroll. Such is my regard for a lot of the threads. While there are a couple threads that I have copied in their totality, there are just so many threads that are enjoyable to pass through.

I wonder if someone could persuade the Cards to put a copy of the forum in a separate FTP location whereby people who want to could download the whole thing. If not the whole site, then at least the present archives up to 2015 with the understanding that they’d allow the same thing for the rest of the forum to be presevered at some future date. That way at such time as that the Cards shut down the site (Or for such time as they hand the site over to someone else who may or may not be inclined twoards preserving it) that those of us who care would have a full copy for their reference purposes.

Thoughts?

20
General Comments / Re: Joe Biden losing it
« on: February 09, 2020, 09:37:56 PM »
Joe doesn't have it all together anymore. I kinda think the people around him letting him continue to play candidate are contributing to elder abuse.

And I think he knows he's loosing it and that he doesn't actually want to win the nomination. When asked about his chances in Iowa a little while back he said that he'd "survive" and another time he bluntly stated that his running mate would have to be young because he's "an old guy". His own mortality seems to be in his mind.

21
Hello JoshuaD!

Quote
I am certain that reddit and facebook are the main reason this forum sees significantly less traffic than it used to.

I had completely forgotten about reddit.

r/orsonscottcard has 329 members
r/ender has 6,000 members
r/scifi has 1.4 million members

Hello Kasandra!

Quote
I'll venture that one reason this forum is in decline because of the pre-eminance of blowhard right wing conspiracy lovers like those recently posting in this thread

My recollection is that we had a number of blowhards back in the day, but not everybody posted in the same threads and it was easy to avoid certain posters if you wanted.  I imagine that with a smaller number of regular posters and smaller number of active threads and seeing comments from the same people over and over could exacerbate a decline.

22
I wonder how much Facebook and social media affected these kinds of forums. 2008-2009 was where Facebook took off and there are Facebook pages and groups. I know I started my account in 2009. You have youtube comment sections and all the other different kinds of social media platforms to engage with your topic of interest. If you are interest in something look at the corresponding Facebook page or group, right? If you want an interview with OSC then why have read text when you can watch it on youtube? OSC's Facebook page has 94,718 likes. How many people found his Facebook page and didn't come to either Hatrack or Ornery?
https://www.facebook.com/OrsonScottCard/

23
So I went back and checked the "Time for Introduction threads" just to see what the number was for the last person to introduce themselves and it wound up being a thread that I just kept pulling on. I found the registration number for the last person to introduce themselves in each year on that thread. What we get is this:

2000 - about 300 new accounts??? (October of 2000 seems to be the month the forum went active. Letterrip joined January 2001 and his number was 310. So about 300?)
2001 - 601 - gain of at approximately 300 over 2000 (as of September 2001 there were 503 so about 98 of those that joined that year did so after 9/11)
2002 - 832 - gain of 231
2003 - 1418 - gain of 586
2004 - 2219 - gain of 801
2005 - 2696 - gain of 477
2006 - 3430 - gain of 734
2007 - 5711 - gain of 2,281
2008 - 6388 - gain of 677
2009 - 6528 - gain of 140
2010 - 6627 - gain of 99
2011 - 6672- gain of 45
2012 - 6774 - gain of 147
2013 - 6880 - gain of 106
2014 - 6953 - gain of 73
2015 - no introductions in this year on that thread
2015-2020 - 136 - and I am supposing most of those were people who migrated to the new forums.

• October of 2000 seems to be the month the forum went active. Letterrip joined January 2001 and his number was 310. So the first three years were roughly about 300, about 300, and about 231 respectfully. That is a stable rate of new accounts.
• Redskullvw started "Time for Introduction threads" because of the noticable influx of people after 9/11.
• 2002 - The pace of people joining slowed down and this year hold the record for lowest number of new accounts until 2009 came along.
• 2003 was a the first "boom year" for new accounts and sixth biggest year for new accounts. Maybe because it was the lead in to a presidential primary? I apparently joined Sept 17th 2003 so I was part of the first boom year. (I think my number was in the 1200's. I want to say WarrsawPact joined the same month as I did and his number was #1275. I miss that that guy.)
• 2004 is the second largest year for new accounts. Probably because it was an election year.
• 2005 saw a drop in new accounts, but it is still the 7th largest year for new accounts.
• 2006 saw an uptick in accounts and was third largest year for new accounts.
• 2007 was the single largest year for new accounts. I seem to recall something about OSC being interviewed or posting something on some site that caused a massive influx. That might have been that year.
• 2008 was the fourth largest year for new accounts. This is the year I dropped out for a variety of reasons.
• 2009 set a new record for lowest number of new accounts. Until this year, the lowest year for new accounts was 2002. Unfortunately it didn’t hold that distinction for long.
• 2010 set a new record for lowest number of new accounts. Unfortunately it didn’t hold that distinction for long.
• 2011 set a new record for lowest number of new accounts, that would hold until some year between 2015 and 2020.
• 2012 saw the last huge uptick in members. At 147 it gained more new accounts then the current forums have members.
• 2013 and 2014 both saw continued declines in new members, but neither went as low as 2011.
• It’s unclear how many might have joined in 2015 before the forum switch on Dec 12th of that year.
• From Dec 12th 2015 to now only 136 accounts have been made, most of those probably posters in long standing.

Well, that answers a lot of my questions and a bunch I didn't know I had. It's a bit depressing actually.

24
msquared,

Quote
OSC has stopped publishing his World Watch articles (the local paper that carried them went under) and he is basically in a semi retirement it seems like.  Hatrack River is almost a ghost town. 

Oh wow.

I met OSC once in person. it was at a convention in 2013, which was great to do after having spent so much time here and having read a number of his books. I listened to him at two panels before I approached him, because I wanted to see how he was first. He was by far the best contributor to both of the panels. I waited for the room to clear out and struck up a conversation that wound up going for half an hour. We covered an amazing amount of ground on religion and politics. We talked briefly about Ornery.org. I told him that there is a certain trebidation about meeting people whom you are aware of from afar, but that he delivered. Best compliment that I think I could give him. The next day I stood in line and he signed three books for me, including “Children of the Mind” which he observed he doesn’t see often in the signing line. Good times.

Quote
We have had at least 3 moderators since I  stepped down ( I was the first moderator).

I remember when you revealed yourself. I always had a favorable impression of you and I never associated you with the left.

25
cherrypoptart,

Quote
You are (still) wrong!!!

I really appreciate that! Thank you! I had forgotten about the traditional greeting, but as soon as I read it it came back to me. I laughed hard for about 15 minutes. It's so refreshing! Most of my online conversations in the past decade have been on Facebook, so naturally no such thick skins there.

Quote
I did a pretty good job of making it independently self sustaining with pretty good perks, a nice family friendly casual guild, a lot like this here.

Well done!

Crunch,

Quote
Hey, I remember you.

I hope they are good recollections! ;D   What was your handle back then? I went and looked for Crunch in the archives and all I could find were uses of it as a word not as a poster.

Quote
Good to hear from you, hope things are going well!

Thank you! Things are going pretty well.

Quote
IMO, the moderation has improved significantly since then but the poster quality has declined almost as massively.

That's sad.

wmLambert,

That happened in 2004. I was there for that. I actually signed up on A.I. Jane at the time, just to check it out. It didn't have enough voices at the time and the odd organization of all the different topics was annoying, so I never migrated over there.

Anyway, the Ornery 8 was 16 years ago. Ornery only existed for about 2 years or so when the Ornery 8 fiasco happened. You've literally had your own forum for about 8 times the time that you could have been on Ornery before the Ornery 8 fiasco.

I recall missing some of the voices that went over to A.I. Jane, but Ornery was still going strong at the time. It's hard for me to say how Ornery immediately post Ornery 8 was compared to how it was in 2008 when I left. I wasn't participating as much for a variety of reasons and I think I was having a case of diminishing returns for what I could get out of it. It is hard for me at this point to say objectively if Ornery declined from 2004 to 2008 or if I was just running out of topics to have interesting conversation on.

That said, the forum was decidedly healthier when I left in 2008. On the first page of General Comments would have something like ten active threads. Back then the threads at the bottom of the first page might be days old. Presently the bottom threads are from two weeks ago.

In terms of members, the archives show that in 2015 that Ornery had 5652 registered members. Looking at some of the last comments in the archives shows member numbers approaching 7,000. Which indicates somewhere over a accounts had been deactivated, either because they were duplicate accounts or unregistered for some reason. But still that means that from 2002 to 2015 we had an average of 400 new members per year (I'm sure some years were much higher). The main forum page displays that presently there are only 136 members of this forum.

Is OSC just not bringing in new fans like he used to? Did a lot of members not migrate over to the new forums in 2015? Or was there a slow drop off in users in the years preceding 2015 and most of the active users at the time migrate over? Were there other events at various times that caused drop offs?

msquared,

Hi! How are you doing?

26
Hello everyone!

I had a lot of great discussions on Ornery from 2003 - 2008 that helped me wrestle with a bunch of ideas. I happened to think about Ornery the other day and decided to check to see if was still up. I’m glad to see that it is still here. 

In perusing some of the current threads, there seems to be the very dedicated civil conversation that I remember, but a lot fewer people are participating. Where did everybody go? Or rather, how many stair steps down did it take to get to the current level? How has Ornery been for the past 12 years? What regeneration is the OrneryMod up to?

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