Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, January 2015

Discussion in 'Community Discussion' started by Doctor Q, Jan 4, 2015.

  1. Doctor Q, Jan 4, 2015
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2015

    Doctor Q Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #1
    This is the 24th edition of my semi-annual analysis of the MacRumors Top 50 Posters. This exercise is for general interest and discussion, not encouragement to post simply to increase your post count.

    Previous "Top 50 Posters Extrapolated" threads:
    2003 (July); 2004 (January, July); 2005 (January, July); 2006 (January, July); 2007 (January, July); 2008 (January, July); 2009 (January, July); 2010 (January, July); 2011 (January, July); 2012 (January, July); 2013 (January, July), 2014 (January, July)

    The legend of column headings follows each chart. Measurements were taken yesterday (January 3rd, 2015).


    Chart #1: Current Top 50 Posters

    Computed by Doctor Q in January 2015

    Code:
                          Cur     Cur   Prev  Delta
    Rank  Current Top 50  Posts   Rate  Rank  Rank
    ----  --------------  ------  ----  ----  -----
     1    GGJstudios      42,274   6.9    1      0
     2    GoCubsGo        35,525   3.8    2      0
     3    maflynn         35,140  31.2    7     +4
     4    Applejuiced     33,347  12.1    5     +1
     5    mad jew         32,195   0.0    3     -2
     6    Doctor Q        32,164   2.4    4     -2
     7    mkrishnan       29,625   0.0    6     -1
     8    Eidorian        28,914   0.3    8      0
     9    rdowns          26,813   1.2    9      0
    10    robbieduncan    24,480   0.0   10      0
    11    Abstract        24,218   0.4   11      0
    12    jsw             22,803   0.0   12      0
    13    Mr. Anderson    22,411   0.0   13      0
    14    Blue Velvet     21,628   0.0   15     +1
    15    Hellhammer      21,545   0.0   16     +1
    16    alphaod         20,737   2.9   17     +1
    17    Dagless         20,232   1.4   18     +1
    18    Jaffa Cake      19,799   0.3   20     +2
    19    bartelby        19,788   0.0   19      0
    20    iGary           19,583   0.0   21     +1
    21    miles01110      19,264   0.0   22     +1
    22    PlaceofDis      19,232   0.0   23     +1
    23    iBlue           19,174   0.0   24     +1
    24    edesignuk       19,103   0.0   25     +1
    25    SandboxGeneral  18,683  23.5   49    +24
    Code:
                          Cur     Cur   Prev  Delta
    Rank  Current Top 50  Posts   Rate  Rank  Rank
    ----  --------------  ------  ----  ----  -----
    26    MacNut          18,673   2.2   27     +1
    27    ~Shard~         18,360   0.0   26     -1
    28    Peace           17,800   3.4   31     +3
    29    MacDawg         17,786   1.5   28     -1
    30    balamw          17,547   2.3   32     +2
    31    dukebound85     17,397   0.6   30     -1
    32    MacRumorUser    17,393   5.3   35     +3
    33    DoFoT9          17,389   0.2   29     -4
    34    Intell          17,269  11.2   41     +7
    35    Nermal          16,821   2.3   36     +1
    36    -aggie-         16,697   0.0   33     -3
    37    wdlove          16,571   0.0   34     -3
    38    Weaselboy       16,030  17.6  ---    ---
    39    yellow          15,921   0.0   37     -2
    40    IJ Reilly       15,881   4.5   43     +3
    41    WildCowboy      15,694   0.6   39     -2
    42    sushi           15,630   0.0   38     -4
    43    devilot         15,532   0.0   40     -3
    44    twoodcc         15,198   0.4   42     -2
    45    Surely          15,043   0.0   44     -1
    46    KnightWRX       15,043   0.0   45     -1
    47    r.j.s           14,892   0.0   46     -1
    48    jav6454         14,870   1.2   48      0
    49    Sun Baked       14,764   0.2   47     -2
    50    dejo            14,669   2.1   50      0
    Columns:
    1. Rank = Position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
    2. Current Top 50 = members with the 50 currently highest post counts.
    3. Cur Posts = # of posts by that member.
    4. Cur Rate = average # posts per day by that member over the last 6 months.
    5. Prev Rank = previous rank, as of 6 months ago (July 2014), or "---" for those who are new to the Top 50.
    6. Delta Rank = change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank since 6 months ago.

    Observations
    1. GGJstudios is once again the only member with more than 40,000 posts.

    2. Six months ago the projection showed that Weaselboy would be the only member to join the Top 50 by this month. That proved to be the case. The projection had him in slot #40; he actually made it to slot #38. Note that he just became a moderator, which tends to increase a user's rate of activity.

    3. The projection last time was remarkably accurate for the order of the Top 25 users. The only difference was that SandboxGeneral ended up ahead of MacNut.

    4. maflynn joins the list of users with 30,000 or more total posts.

    5. 39 of the Top 50 are active users who logged in and/or posted in the measurement period. 11 of the Top 50 are inactive, gradually sinking down the rankings. The highest of these is mad jew, who retired in 2008 but was so far ahead at the time that he is still in the Top 5, down from #3 last time.

    6. The biggest overall increase was SandboxGeneral, up 24 slots from #49 to #25. Next was Intell, up 7. Peace, MacRumorUser, and IJ Reilly were each up 3 slots.

    7. Active member DoFoT9 and inactive member sushi dropped 4 slots each. -aggie-, wdlove, and devilot each dropped by 3 slots.

    8. Five members made over 2000 posts in the last 6 months: maflynn (5,745 posts, eclipsing his amazing 5,267 posts from January 2014 to July 2014), SandboxGeneral (4,333 posts), Weaselboy (3,244 posts), Applejuiced (2,230 posts), and Intell (2,069 posts).

    9. GGJstudios was the only other member with 1000 or more posts (1,273 posts).

    10. Up-and-coming: Two members who are not in the Top 50 have made about 10,000 to 15,000 posts overall as well as over 2000 posts in the last 6 months. C DM made 3,791 posts for an overall total of 12,969 posts. Rogifan made 2,109 posts for an overall total of 9,903.

    Other stats and charts

     
  2. Apple fanboy, Jan 4, 2015
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 4, 2015

    Apple fanboy macrumors Core

    Apple fanboy

    Joined:
    Feb 21, 2012
    Location:
    Behind the Lens, UK
    #2
    Thanks for once again putting these together. I always find them fascinating. As a regular poster myself, I do wonder if some of these guys work/eat/sleep! 2000 posts in 6 months is pretty impressive.
     
  3. Scepticalscribe, Jan 4, 2015
    Last edited: May 8, 2016

    Scepticalscribe Contributor

    Scepticalscribe

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2008
    Location:
    The Far Horizon
    #3
    The exact same thought has crossed my mind when reading these stats - where do these people find the time to eat/sleep/work/live the rest of their lives?

    Meanwhile, thank you, Dr Q, for putting these lists together - they are always a most fascinating read.

    When I am abroad, sometimes I barely have time to do more than throw a passing glance over the forums, and - maybe - make one or two posts. At the moment, I am home, and thus, have a bit more free - or flexible - time on my hands.
     
  4. Intell macrumors P6

    Intell

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2010
    Location:
    Inside
  5. Peace macrumors Core

    Peace

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2005
    Location:
    Space--The ONLY Frontier
    #5
    How can your post be posted today yet edited yesterday at 5AM ?
     
  6. Intell macrumors P6

    Intell

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2010
    Location:
    Inside
    #6
    Sometimes my timeline doesn't quite match with that of the MacRumors server, causing the glitch you have noticed. It's kinda neat.
     
  7. mobilehaathi macrumors G3

    mobilehaathi

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2008
    Location:
    The Anthropocene
    #7
    Sweet!

    So, what's the distribution of times from registration to first appearing on the top 50 (conditional on having been in the top 50 at least once in all of your reports)?
     
  8. Peace macrumors Core

    Peace

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2005
    Location:
    Space--The ONLY Frontier
    #8
    hahaha..

    That's your signature..lol
     
  9. mobilehaathi macrumors G3

    mobilehaathi

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2008
    Location:
    The Anthropocene
    #9
    My understanding is that 'Guest' is a nice version of 'Banned,' and banned folks aren't counted (I think).
     
  10. GGJstudios macrumors Westmere

    GGJstudios

    Joined:
    May 16, 2008
    #10
    No, it's not a version of banned.

    From: What do the "In Time-Out", "Banned" and "Guest" user titles mean?

     
  11. mobilehaathi macrumors G3

    mobilehaathi

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2008
    Location:
    The Anthropocene
    #11
  12. maflynn Moderator

    maflynn

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    May 3, 2009
    Location:
    Boston
  13. ucfgrad93 macrumors P6

    ucfgrad93

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2007
    Location:
    Colorado
    #13
    Agreed. I always look forward to seeing these threads.
     
  14. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #14
    6-Month Projections

    Chart #2: 6-Month Projected Top 50 Posters

    Computed by Doctor Q in January 2015

    Code:
    Proj  Projection      Proj    Cur   Delta
    Rank  Jul 4, 2015     Posts   Rank  Rank
    ----  --------------- ------  ----  -----
     1    GGJstudios      43,533    1      0
     2    maflynn         40,823    3     +1
     3    GoCubsGo        36,216    2     -1
     4    Applejuiced     35,553    4      0
     5    Doctor Q        32,602    6     +1
     6    mad jew         32,195    5     -1
     7    mkrishnan       29,629    7      0
     8    Eidorian        28,962    8      0
     9    rdowns          27,037    9      0
    10    robbieduncan    24,481   10      0
    11    Abstract        24,292   11      0
    12    SandboxGeneral  22,969   25    +13
    13    jsw             22,803   12     -1
    14    Mr. Anderson    22,411   13     -1
    15    Blue Velvet     21,628   14     -1
    16    Hellhammer      21,553   15     -1
    17    alphaod         21,266   16     -1
    18    Dagless         20,489   17     -1
    19    Jaffa Cake      19,853   18     -1
    20    bartelby        19,789   19     -1
    21    iGary           19,583   20     -1
    22    Intell          19,316   34    +12
    23    miles01110      19,264   21     -2
    24    Weaselboy       19,239   38    +14
    25    PlaceofDis      19,232   22     -3
    Code:
    Proj  Projection      Proj    Cur   Delta
    Rank  Jul 4, 2015     Posts   Rank  Rank
    ----  --------------- ------  ----  -----
    26    iBlue           19,175   23     -3
    27    edesignuk       19,103   24     -3
    28    MacNut          19,081   26     -2
    29    Peace           18,421   28     -1
    30    MacRumorUser    18,365   32     +2
    31    ~Shard~         18,361   27     -4
    32    MacDawg         18,055   29     -3
    33    balamw          17,957   30     -3
    34    dukebound85     17,508   31     -3
    35    DoFoT9          17,422   33     -2
    36    Nermal          17,246   35     -1
    37    C DM            16,719  ---    ---
    38    -aggie-         16,699   36     -2
    39    IJ Reilly       16,696   40     +1
    40    wdlove          16,571   37     -3
    41    yellow          15,929   39     -2
    42    WildCowboy      15,811   41     -1
    43    sushi           15,630   42     -1
    44    devilot         15,532   43     -1
    45    ucfgrad93       15,407  ---    ---
    46    twoodcc         15,275   44     -2
    47    jav6454         15,086   48     +1
    48    dejo            15,047   50     +2
    49    Surely          15,043   45     -4
    50    KnightWRX       15,043   46     -4
    Columns:
    1. Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
    2. Projection Jan 4, 2015 = members with the 50 highest projected post counts based on current post count and rate for the last 6 months.
    3. Proj Posts = projected # of posts by that member.
    4. Cur Rank = current rank, as of January 2015 (see Chart #1 above), or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
    5. Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank over the next 6 months.

    Observations
    • Projected to join the Top 50: C DM and ucfgrad93.

    • Projected to drop off the Top 50: r.j.s (missed by 151 posts) and Sun Baked (missed by 243 posts).

    • According to these projections, six months from now GGJstudios will remain on top while maflynn will pass GoCubsGo and Doctor Q will pass mad jew. The rest of the Top 10 will remain the same.

    • Of the members not in the Top 10, only Abstract will retain his current rank (#11).

    • iBlue and her husband edesignuk are projected to depart from the Top 25 within 6 months.

    • Largest increases: Weaselboy, up 14 slots and into the Top 25. SandboxGeneral, up 13 slots. Intell, up 12 slots. As a result, about half the Top 50 will drop by 1 or 2 slots.

    • The bot MacBytes is not included, but would have been #42 with 15,811 posts.
     
  15. Apple fanboy macrumors Core

    Apple fanboy

    Joined:
    Feb 21, 2012
    Location:
    Behind the Lens, UK
    #15
    Thanks Q. If it's not too much trouble, could you also post a top 50 based on the previous 6 months (an update of your chart from July).
     
  16. stridemat Moderator

    stridemat

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2008
    Location:
    UK
    #16
    Boy hasn't 6 months passed quickly. Thanks for the data as always Q!
     
  17. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #17
    I've found that declaring a user "inactive" is an iffy business, which is why I don't make many points about active vs. inactive users.

    Some examples:
    • jelloshotsrule, who was Top 50 member #3 in 2003, didn't post in 2012 or 2013, but returned with a post last November.

    • After an absence of over a year, eva01, who almost made the Top 50 in 2006, was back posting in recent months.

    • After an absence of over 6 months, ~Shard~ was back in mid-year 2014. He reached #6 in 2007 and 2008.

    • ibookin', who was in the Top 100 in 2003, was a regular through 2004, and now posts just enough so we know he's alive:
      2005 - 3 posts
      2006 - 0 posts
      2007 - 2 posts
      2008 - 0 posts
      2009 - 1 post
      2010 - 1 post
      2011 - 0 posts
      2012 - 1 post
      2013 - 0 posts
      2014 - 1 post​
      To maintain his rate of 0.9 posts/year it looks like he won't post in 2015!
     
  18. Doctor Q, Jan 5, 2015
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2015

    Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
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    #18
    Posts required

    I thought of a new graph that would be fun to see. It shows the number of posts by the #1 user, the #10 user, the #25 user, and the #50 user for each time point since I've been keeping track.

    The top line shows how many posts it takes to be the champ, while the bottom line shows how many posts it takes to be in the Top 50. The requirements get tougher and tougher over time. Imagine getting into the Top 50 with a mere 1,359 posts, as in July 2003! Now it takes more than 10 times as many.

    I was surprised at the shape of the #1 line until I thought about it. There's a steep slope from January 2007 to January 2008, followed by a flat line from July 2008 to July 2012. The steep portion was when mad jew took over the #1 spot from original leader Mr. Anderson. When mad jew retired, his post count remained at the top until GGJstudios finally passed him.

    The other lines show steadier rises over the years.


    Minimum posts for Top 1, Top 10, Top 25, and Top 50

    click to zoom

    posts-required.png
     
  19. GGJstudios macrumors Westmere

    GGJstudios

    Joined:
    May 16, 2008
    #19
    That would be interesting to see.
     
  20. mkrishnan Moderator emeritus

    mkrishnan

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2004
    Location:
    Grand Rapids, MI, USA
    #20
    Yes, I came back just to mess with your definitions. :)
     
  21. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #21
    That wasn't easy to compute! I looked for users who weren't in the Top 50 the first time I measured, and reached the Top 50 sometime later, found the date they first appeared on one of my Top 50 lists, and subtracted their join date. Here's what I found.


    Distribution of Time to Reach Top 50

    User count is shown above each column.

    click to zoom

    Distribution of Time to Reach Top 50.png

    As you can see, the majority reached the Top 50 after 1 to 3 years. However, I expected this to be a misleading result, because it was easier to reach the Top 50 in ancient times, and much harder recently. To find out, I divided the data by the year each member joined MacRumors, then took averages over each group.


    Average Years to Reach Top 50, by Year Joined

    Average years is shown above each column.

    click to zoom

    Average Years to Reach Top 50.png

    Although the number of years varies form one join date to the next, the values don't decrease as years progress, as I would have expected. If I did the computations correctly, I'm puzzled why users who joined in 2001 and eventually reached the Top 50 and users who joined in 2010 and eventually reached the Top 50 both took an average of 3.3 years to get there! Perhaps it's because there are so many more users now, so the chances of someone having a high posting rate have increased.
     
  22. Apple fanboy macrumors Core

    Apple fanboy

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    Feb 21, 2012
    Location:
    Behind the Lens, UK
    #22
    I'm guessing there was a lot less to talk about in 2001!
     
  23. Scepticalscribe, Jan 6, 2015
    Last edited: May 8, 2016

    Scepticalscribe Contributor

    Scepticalscribe

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2008
    Location:
    The Far Horizon
    #23
    Fascinating. This stuff is most interesting to read, and thank you for taking the time and trouble to put it together.


    Actually, I suspect it is more that people hadn't formed online habits of posting on social media at that time. I know that in 2001, I would never have considered it likely that I would spend some time most days writing posts on a wide variety of topics (and not just those in which I have a personal interest) to an audience none of whom I have ever met or spoken to in real life.

    How people communicate has been transformed utterly these past two decades - it is nothing short of an utter and total revolution in forms of communication.
     
  24. mobilehaathi macrumors G3

    mobilehaathi

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2008
    Location:
    The Anthropocene
    #24
    Cheers! I figured you could do it given the data you've collected, but I didn't think it'd be trivial to extract.

    Curious that mean years to reach the top 50 is relatively steady conditional on join date. What are the standard errors on those means? What if you did a simple linear regression using membership years to predict time to first reaching the top 50. I would be surprised if it wasn't a significant predictor with older members being more likely to have reached sooner. I could come up with a lot of things, so please just ignore me as desired. :p
     
  25. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #25
    I think I'll move on to other measures. I'm working on the traditional chart #3, based on overall posting rates, and that's always a fun one to see.

    By the way, I track only users with thousands of posts. If any of you have noticed users with lower post counts who have high post rates, you're welcome to point them out to me!
     

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