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I'm Contributors Editor at TheStreet.com, a business news, market data and stock analysis website. I was Editorial Director of Digital Book World, a website dedicated to covering the world of e-books and digital publishing. I've been a reader since 1986, a journalist since 2005 and an e-reader since 2011. I live and work in New York City.

Contact Jeremy Greenfield

The author is a Forbes contributor. The opinions expressed are those of the writer.

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Three Predictions for Book Publishing in 2013

Kindle as Magic 8 Ball. Illustration by Todd Goldstein

This year, for the second time in a row, I spoke with about a dozen ebook and book-publishing experts to get their predictions on what would happen in book publishing in 2013. I compiled the information and published this: Ten Bold Predictions for Ebooks and Digital Publishing in 2013.

The thing is, while I think these are solid predictions and will probably be more accurate than our predictions from last year (which have turned out to be really accurate — but more on that in the new year), it doesn’t really scratch my personal itch for making predictions. These, of course, are the predictions of experts that I merely filtered and compiled. When do I get to make predictions?

Right…about…now:

1. Goodreads becomes a bookseller.

This one is a bit more than a prediction. I have spoke with three sources familiar with the matter (though none of them are at the company) that have given me credible background on the matter: Goodreads, the massive social network dedicated to books and readers, will turn into a bookseller in 2013. When I asked founder and CEO Otis Chandler about it earlier this year, he said “not yet.” When I approached the company with my information and asked for comment, a spokesperson told me, “We don’t comment on rumors or speculation.”

Fair enough and time will tell but let’s think about this for a second. Why not?

The company has more than 12 million registered users who are all there for books and reading — they share book recommendations, find out about new titles and build massive lists of books they intend to buy and read. It already drives a lot of book sales at partner retailers through affiliate links. And it has great relationships with publishers (aka, suppliers) that it can leverage to build stock. So, why wouldn’t the company try to sell books?

Well, for one, it’s risky. Goodreads would likely be giving up its affiliate revenue to go after this and what if people don’t buy? Second, it doesn’t currently sell an e-reading device, so for ebooks, at least, it needs to sell through an app (and give a cut to Apple or Google) or sell files that users will upload to another device. Not a great user experience, though some booksellers are doing it (unless it sold or gave away an e-reading device — not so far-fetched as the costs of those devices approach $0). And on the print side, there are a lot of logistics issues the company would have to solve.

That said, it’s happening, folks. So get ready for a bookseller born of the social media era in 2013.

 

2. Ebook marketplace gets dynamic and goes beyond discounting.

Book-industry insiders have been privately talking amongst themselves about how the end of agency pricing for the major publishers (the end of their ability to limit discounting by retailers, basically — and slightly inaccurately, but fine) means the end of Barnes & Noble and every other Amazon competitor in the ebook space. The thinking is that Amazon will discount everything as much as it can, driving smaller players that can’t afford to discount as much out of business.

First, I don’t think this will happen. The most important factor for each of the major ebook retailers at this point is getting their devices into the hands of consumers. An owner of a Nook e-reader is likely buying her books on that device. So, as long as each of the retailers can continue to sell devices, they will continue to sell ebooks to the readers who use those devices. The bad news on that front is that e-readers are becoming less popular among consumers.

Second, I think the removal of discounting restrictions could be good for some of the smaller players in the marketplace. They can get creative with what they do with retail. It’s already happening. Barnes & Noble has a program going in the days leading up to Christmas where in-store shoppers who buy an ebook from a pre-selected list can gift an ebook from that list to someone else. Translation: Barnes & Noble is giving away ebooks. That’s a creative retail strategy. From short-term giveaways, to bundles to all sorts of creative deals, we’re going to see this market get very interesting in 2013.

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  • Kristen Lamb Kristen Lamb 2 years ago

    Great post. Interesting predictions and I guess time will tell. But for some debate…

    With all due respect, I don’t think Goodreads can become a bookseller, because few things shut down a social situation like someone trying to sell you something. Merging “selling stuff” with social media has a long history of not working out too great.

    Ads and spammy bands killed MySpace. Facebook tried to monetize and that hasn’t gone so well. Pinterest is still trying to figure out how to monetize without losing what they have.

    Why doesn’t openly selling stuff work with social media? It’s the pickle of social norms crossing with marketing norms. We can’t claim to be people’s friend and then charge to help them move. We can’t come to the cocktail party then set out a card table and a credit card machine.

    Additionally, Goodreads is infested with self-pubbed authors who are not much better than spam bots. It’s gotten as bad as it used to be on MySpace. On MySpace, one couldn’t go 20 minutes without some band spamming your e-mail or posting their music (unwanted) on your profile. I love books but almost never log in to Goodreads because of the 212 e-mails I get with some version of “Buy my book!”

    Now, Goodreads could possibly merge with B&N or Amazon, become a division and capitalize on what they DO bring to the table–namely a healthy database of people who profess to love books and let OTHERS do the selling–but going out on their own? I don’t see it. I think Amazon is going to get into the brick-and-mortar biz–give us a B. Dalton fit for the 21st century–only they will have the advantage of hindsight and learning where others failed. Not only do they get to sell tangible items in a store, but they have an ideal spot to push the Kindle Fire and take on Apple.

    I agree with point #2, though agency pricing has always been a flawed strategy. Just encourages piracy and competitive undercutting. I think consumers are growing tired on .99 crap and they will be willing to pay more…but NOT equal to a paper book.

    Consumers don’t like having their intelligence insulted and we KNOW that e-books have infinite shelf life, are far cheaper to produce, and also require no shipping, shelving or stocking. We EXPECT the product to be cheaper because iTunes spoiled us.

    As far as prediction #3, perhaps. But it’s still too little too late. NY likely will hemorrhage midlist talent to the up and coming indie presses who pay better and offer far more creative control. NY has a bloated business model where everyone gets paid before the writer. We writers are bad at math, but we aren’t THAT bad. We writers know there is a HUGE difference between 17% royalties and 70%.

    There is a new generation of traditionally published authors who tweet, blog, do 98% of their own marketing with little support from NY. They are doing everything the indie author does…except making enough money to quit the day job. Yes, extraordinary that a writer can make the NY Times Best-Selling list and still not make enough to write full time.

    I don’t see these authors staying with NY long enough to rise to be the new ranks of mega author. These writers will go to those who are willing to pay them for their art, and NY will lose their emerging talent. Many new writers are no longer even considering traditional publishing, so those ranks are fading, too. And with cuts in the size of the sales force, cuts in author advances, and cuts in number of new authors, it looks fairly bleak for traditional publishing.

    I hope NY changes its practices. I’ve rooted for them for a long time. But unless they start remembering who creates the art and who should be paid first (and better), I see this move as merely buying time before the inevitable end. You have to have writers to have a publishing business, and let’s hope they are wise to remember that.

    Thank you for such a well-thought article. Definitely some interesting and exciting points I would not have considered. Have a Happy New Year and many blessings in 2013!

  • The phrase “the end of agency pricing” is not slightly inaccurate. It is a lie told for a very specific reason. You continue to enable a false narrative about the illegal retail price-fixing conspiracy that ripped off consumers for millions of dollars. Agency pricing did not end. What ended was the illegal price-fixing. Just be honest. The sooner the industry faces up to the truth, the better for everyone.

  • Jeremy Greenfield Jeremy Greenfield, Contributor 2 years ago

    You’re right, Will. I can always count on you to point out stuff like that. I’m using it here as shorthand for the end of the last round of agency pricing, where the price the consumer paid was 100% determined by the publisher.

  • Goodreads already allows authors to upload a full manuscript that can be downloaded by readers, and the author sets the price for it. But of course, the only ones participating are those who own the rights to sell their books– self-published authors (see “infestation” reference in comment #1). I don’t think this function has caught on at all, though, because really, Goodreads has nothing to offer as a bookseller– it’s not as easy as buying from Amazon, if you have a Kindle or from B&N if you have a Nook, and it doesn’t offer the range of formats that Smashwords does. The site is just not built for shopping. Plus, in order to sign on, authors have to agree they won’t ever want to take down the books. I have had one of my books available on Goodreads (yikes, I must be part of the infestation!) and have never had a nibble on it. Of course, it is free other places, so maybe that’s why.

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  • Seeley James Seeley James 2 years ago

    #1 Goodreads is struggling to keep their system running now. They don’t have the infrastructure to start selling and -unless they engage a massive private equity partner- they’re not going to. Best they can do is get a commission (which one would assume is why they have those ‘where to buy’ buttons that have Amazon at the bottom of the list).

    #2 Your ereader-as-a-device premise is flawed. Both Amazon & BN are selling pads and apps; while ereader devices are disappearing, ereader apps are exploding. My iphone has readers for Kindle, Nook, and Kobo (the latter unused). In my family of 4, we have 9 ereader platforms and 16 apps. Agency pricing won’t change anything significant. Change will only come if/when readers demand interoperability between ereader apps. Think: move my Kindle Library to Kobo. Reverse engineering (probably by Kobo) will be the harbinger of this sea change.

    #3 No, authors (the smart ones) have been harvesting their backlists for just this purpose. While publishers will form specialized divisions, it will be to hire staff writers to write/publish a series under the publisher’s brand — think: Nancy Drew. More authors with their own brand name will pursue indie-hybrid publishing (Hugh Howey) publishing.

    Peace, Seeley
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