Silverdale — If the preliminary results of a demographic study hold true, Central Kitsap School District will continue to face budget cuts — and might consider closing schools to save money.
An analyst studying local enrollment trends told school board members this week that the school district can expect to continue losing students through at least 2014. Enrollment at Central Kitsap schools already has dropped by nearly 1,000 students since 1997. Current enrollment is 12,114, still making it the largest school district in Kitsap.
Reed Hansen, an analyst based on Bainbridge Island, said the current population growth rate for Kitsap County is so low that there likely will be no enrollment gains over the next eight years.
Since state funding for education largely is based on enrollment, Central Kitsap School District likely will have to cut its expenses for the next few years. Administrators anticipate costs will exceed revenues by up to $3 million for the 2006-07 school year. The current budget is about $103 million.
Superintendent Greg Lynch says the district has enough of a financial cushion to cover the upcoming budget. But he warns that the long-range outlook could be painful.
It can become cost-inefficient for a district to maintain and operate a school that is well below capacity. The fixed costs don't decline just because enrollment does.
School boards are reluctant to close schools or lay off teachers because of public pressure. When Lynch mentioned the possibility of closing schools at Wednesday's meeting, he said it was the first time it had been publicly discussed since fall 2004.
Central Kitsap is hardly alone in this quandary. Aside from Bainbridge Island, each school district on the Kitsap Peninsula has either declining or stagnant enrollment.
Analysts say it's difficult to precisely say why enrollment at many Kitsap school districts is declining. The biggest factor is the declining birth rate, which peaked in 1992. Another possible explanation is that many new homes being built in Kitsap are so expensive that only "empty-nesters" and retirees can afford them.
Regardless of the reasons for the decline, Lynch says this summer the board likely will address the possibility of closing schools.
"Unfortunately, none of this is related to school performance," Lynch said. "This is just financial reality."
Hansen is expected to present the completed demographic study by early July.
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