SACRAMENTO — When it comes to campaign dollars, the May 19 special election is shaping up as a lopsided affair. Led by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, the campaign for a slate of ballot measures designed to shore up the state budget is outraising opponents by at least 6 to 1 — and as much as 13 to 1, depending on how you count.
But the governor and his supporters may need every cent. With early polling showing voters angry at the state's political leaders and wary of the tax increases and borrowing that the measures would authorize, opponents are gambling that it won't take much cash to sink the measures.
"People are already against them, so we don't have to convince them of anything," said Kenneth Burt, political director of the California Federation of Teachers, a leading opponent of the cornerstone measure, Proposition 1A. "It's a good place to be."
Schwarzenegger and legislative leaders drafted the ballot measures as part of their plan to close a $40 billion deficit through mid-2010. Proponents warn that the state budget will be in dire shape if the propositions fail.
The fiercest campaign is being waged over Proposition 1A. It would limit the annual growth of state spending and place unexpected revenue in flush years into a special reserve. The measure also would extend a series of tax increases that are now in effect through mid-2010 for an additional one or two years, generating $16 billion.
A companion measure, Proposition 1B, would set aside 1.5 percent of state revenue, starting in 2011, to essentially pay back public schools for the funding cuts they sustained in the recent budget deal. That set-aside would continue until public education receives $9.3 billion over and above what schools are guaranteed under the state constitution. The measure would take effect only if Proposition 1A passes also.
The governor is collecting cash from a bevy of business interests that are frequent supporters of his political causes. Among the biggest donors so far, according to campaign records: Spanish-language media mogul A. Jerrold Perenchio ($1.5 million); Chevron ($500,000); developer Henry T. Segerstrom Properties ($250,000); Netflix CEO Reed Hastings ($250,000); and Constellation Brands, the beverage giant that owns Robert Mondavi wines, Clos du Bois, Ravenswood and other popular brands ($100,000).
Schwarzenegger also has transferred more than $1 million to the ballot campaign from his own political account. The Schwarzenegger-led committee pushing for the propositions also has accepted large checks from a frequent adversary of the governor: the California Teachers Association. The association has kicked in $6.7 million, although most of that has gone to a campaign committee focused solely on promoting Proposition 1B, the education measure.
Altogether, the campaigns for Propositions 1A and 1B have collected about $13 million.
The opposition campaign, by contrast, has collected just over $1 million, with about $600,000 of that total coming from the Service Employees International Union's state council. The California Faculty Association has contributed $177,000, and the California Federation of Teachers, a rival to the CTA, has given $116,000. Union opponents say Proposition 1A's spending cap would starve state programs that help the needy,
Perhaps more notable than who has given money to the opposition campaign is who has not. While Proposition 1A has come under fire from some fiscal conservatives who dislike the tax increases it would prolong, so far, two of the most vocal and well-heeled critics of the measure — state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and former eBay CEO Meg Whitman — have declined to open their wallets. Both are Republican candidates for governor in 2010.
"They're saying the right things," said Jon Coupal, president of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, "but it would certainly help the cause of fiscal conservatism to have them donate something in the seven figures."
Spokesmen for both candidates responded virtually the same way: They said they are keeping their options open about a possible contribution, but suggested that spending money against the propositions would be a waste of money because voters will probably reject them anyway.
"The reality is, the measures don't seem to be faring well in the polling," said Kevin Spillane, a Poizner adviser.
A poll by the Public Policy Institute of California last month showed the key ballot measures well below the 50 percent mark — an ominous sign for any proposition early in a campaign. And a long list of factors is working against the measures, from the difficulty of selling voters on higher taxes in the midst of a recession, to the governor's and Legislature's dismal approval ratings, to the mind-numbing complexity of some of the measures themselves.
But with proponents continuing to rake in large contributions — Schwarzenegger has scheduled two $100,000-a-head fundraisers at his Brentwood mansion, including one last night — it's hardly a given that the measures are destined to fail, analysts said. Proponents plan to use their financial advantage to drive home the importance of the propositions to the state budget.
The deficit would grow by $6 billion immediately, and possibly by tens of billions more in future years, if voters reject the measures.
"We think that as voters learn the consequences if these don't pass, they'll continue to come on board," said Julie Soderlund, a spokeswoman for the "yes" campaign.
Contact Mike Zapler at firstname.lastname@example.org or 916-441-4603.
prop. 1a supporters
Some other top contributors to Proposition 1A on the May 19 special election ballot:
California Alliance for Jobs (represents construction industry)
Brian L. Harvey, Cypress Land
Anschutz Entertainment Group
A.G. Spanos Cos.
California State Council of Laborers
Charles T. Munger Jr., Stanford physicist
E. & J. Gallo Winery
Gerald Forsythe, CEO of Indeck Energy Services
GTECH Enterprises (gaming technology)
Wine Institute of California