text: To manage and maintain large-scale cellular networks, operators need to know which sectors underperform at any given time. For this purpose, they use the so-called hot spot score, which is the result of a combination of multiple network measurements and reflects the instantaneous overall performance of individual sectors. While operators have a good understanding of the current performance of a network and its overall trend, forecasting the performance of each sector over time is a challenging task, as it is affected by both regular and non-regular events, triggered by human behavior and hardware failures. In this paper, we study the spatio-temporal patterns of the hot spot score and uncover its regularities. Based on our observations, we then explore the possibility to use recent measurements' history to predict future hot spots. To this end, we consider tree-based machine learning models, and study their performance as a function of time, amount of past data, and prediction horizon. Our results indicate that, compared to the best baseline, tree-based models can deliver up to 14 better forecasts for regular hot spots and 153 better forecasts for non-regular hot spots. The latter brings strong evidence that, for moderate horizons, forecasts can be made even for sectors exhibiting isolated, non-regular behavior. Overall, our work provides insight into the dynamics of cellular sectors and their predictability. It also paves the way for more proactive network operations with greater forecasting horizons.
  @cite_4: The unprecedented growth in mobile data usage is posing significant challenges to cellular operators. One key challenge is how to provide quality of service to subscribers when their residing cell is experiencing a significant amount of traffic, i.e. becoming a traffic hotspot. In this paper, we perform an empirical study on data hotspots in today's cellular networks using a 9-week cellular dataset with 734K+ users and 5327 cell sites. Our analysis examines in details static and dynamic characteristics, predictability, and causes of data hotspots, and their correlation with call hotspots. We believe the understanding of these key issues will lead to more efficient and responsive resource management and thus better QoS provision in cellular networks. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first to characterize in detail traffic hotspots in today's cellular networks using real data.
summary: After an exhaustive search, we have not been able to find any work that characterizes performance of hot spots in cellular networks using real data. The only exception could be the work by Nika et al. @cite_4 , where a data set with more than 700K users is analyzed to understand temporal characteristics of data hot spots. Predictability is assessed, but considering only hot spot repetitions at the exact time and location in the forthcoming week. However, we find that the focus of the work is not on performance, but on load, with hot spots being defined on the basis of relative daily cell traffic.