text: Existing studies of how information diffuses across social networks have thus far concentrated on analysing and recovering the spread of deterministic innovations such as URLs, hashtags, and group membership. However investigating how mentions of real-world entities appear and spread has yet to be explored, largely due to the computationally intractable nature of performing large-scale entity extraction. In this paper we present, to the best of our knowledge, one of the first pieces of work to closely examine the diffusion of named entities on social media, using Reddit as our case study platform. We first investigate how named entities can be accurately recognised and extracted from discussion posts. We then use these extracted entities to study the patterns of entity cascades and how the probability of a user adopting an entity (i.e. mentioning it) is associated with exposures to the entity. We put these pieces together by presenting a parallelised diffusion model that can forecast the probability of entity adoption, finding that the influence of adoption between users can be characterised by their prior interactions -- as opposed to whether the users propagated entity-adoptions beforehand. Our findings have important implications for researchers studying influence and language, and for community analysts who wish to understand entity-level influence dynamics.
  @cite_27: In a social network, adoption probability refers to the probability that a social entity will adopt a product, service, or opinion in the foreseeable future. Such probabilities are central to fundamental issues in social network analysis, including the influence maximization problem. In practice, adoption probabilities have significant implications for applications ranging from social network-based target marketing to political campaigns, yet predicting adoption probabilities has not received sufficient research attention. Building on relevant social network theories, we identify and operationalize key factors that affect adoption decisions: social influence, structural equivalence, entity similarity, and confounding factors. We then develop the locally weighted expectation-maximization method for Naive Bayesian learning to predict adoption probabilities on the basis of these factors. The principal challenge addressed in this study is how to predict adoption probabilities in the presence of confounding factors that are generally unobserved. Using data from two large-scale social networks, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The empirical results also suggest that cascade methods primarily using social influence to predict adoption probabilities offer limited predictive power and that confounding factors are critical to adoption probability predictions.
  @cite_3: For the study of information propagation, one fundamental problem is uncovering universal laws governing the dynamics of information propagation. This problem, from the microscopic perspective, is formulated as estimating the propagation probability that a piece of information propagates from one individual to another. Such a propagation probability generally depends on two major classes of factors: the intrinsic attractiveness of information and the interactions between individuals. Despite the fact that the temporal effect of attractiveness is widely studied, temporal laws underlying individual interactions remain unclear, causing inaccurate prediction of information propagation on evolving social networks. In this report, we empirically study the dynamics of information propagation, using the dataset from a population-scale social media website. We discover a temporal scaling in information propagation: the probability a message propagates between two individuals decays with the length of time latency since their latest interaction, obeying a power-law rule. Leveraging the scaling law, we further propose a temporal model to estimate future propagation probabilities between individuals, reducing the error rate of information propagation prediction from 6.7 to 2.6 and improving viral marketing with 9.7 incremental customers.
  @cite_39: Recently, there has been tremendous interest in the phenomenon of influence propagation in social networks. The studies in this area assume they have as input to their problems a social graph with edges labeled with probabilities of influence between users. However, the question of where these probabilities come from or how they can be computed from real social network data has been largely ignored until now. Thus it is interesting to ask whether from a social graph and a log of actions by its users, one can build models of influence. This is the main problem attacked in this paper. In addition to proposing models and algorithms for learning the model parameters and for testing the learned models to make predictions, we also develop techniques for predicting the time by which a user may be expected to perform an action. We validate our ideas and techniques using the Flickr data set consisting of a social graph with 1.3M nodes, 40M edges, and an action log consisting of 35M tuples referring to 300K distinct actions. Beyond showing that there is genuine influence happening in a real social network, we show that our techniques have excellent prediction performance.
summary: @cite_27 predicted adoption probabilities in social networks by controlling for potential confounding, unobservable variables -- proposing a modification of expectation-maximisation to induce a Naive bayes predictive model. The authors found that social influence alone is insufficient to recover the diffusion process, and thus external factors -- that are latent -- must be countered for within any predictive model -- this was in the context of predicting the adoption of social ties. The adoption of information within a social network and its propagation was studied by @cite_3 by considering the role of temporal dynamics. The authors found that the probability of diffusion between users ( on Chinese microblogging platform Sina Weibo) reduces as a function of time from the last interaction between the users, thereby suggesting that have a strong effect in diffusion. We build time into our adaptation of 's @cite_39 general threshold diffusion model -- by comparing static and discrete time versions of adoption probabilities.