text: Infrastructure as a service clouds hide the complexity of maintaining the physical infrastructure with a slight disadvantage: they also hide their internal working details. Should users need knowledge about these details e.g., to increase the reliability or performance of their applications, they would need solutions to detect behavioural changes in the underlying system. Existing runtime solutions for such purposes offer limited capabilities as they are mostly restricted to revealing weekly or yearly behavioural periodicity in the infrastructure. This article proposes a technique for predicting generic background workload by means of simulations that are capable of providing additional knowledge of the underlying private cloud systems in order to support activities like cloud orchestration or workflow enactment. Our technique uses long-running scientific workflows and their behaviour discrepancies and tries to replicate these in a simulated cloud with known (trace-based) workloads. We argue that the better we can mimic the current discrepancies the better we can tell expected workloads in the near future on the real life cloud. We evaluated the proposed prediction approach with a biochemical application on both real and simulated cloud infrastructures. The proposed algorithm has shown to produce significantly ( 20 ) better workload predictions for the future of simulated clouds than random workload selection.
  @cite_15: As companies shift from desktop applications to cloud-based software as a service (SaaS) applications deployed on public clouds, the competition for end-users by cloud providers offering similar services grows. In order to survive in such a competitive market, cloud-based companies must achieve good quality of service (QoS) for their users, or risk losing their customers to competitors. However, meeting the QoS with a cost-effective amount of resources is challenging because workloads experience variation over time. This problem can be solved with proactive dynamic provisioning of resources, which can estimate the future need of applications in terms of resources and allocate them in advance, releasing them once they are not required. In this paper, we present the realization of a cloud workload prediction module for SaaS providers based on the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. We introduce the prediction based on the ARIMA model and evaluate its accuracy of future workload prediction using real traces of requests to web servers. We also evaluate the impact of the achieved accuracy in terms of efficiency in resource utilization and QoS. Simulation results show that our model is able to achieve an average accuracy of up to 91 percent, which leads to efficiency in resource utilization with minimal impact on the QoS.
  @cite_3: We model a web application to support analysis and simulation of cloud environments.We implement the model as an extension of the CloudSim simulator.We found that the user behavior has a strong influence on the resource utilization.We found Generalized Extreme Value and Generalized Lambda distributions instead of Exponential distribution to represent session time. Display Omitted Workload modeling enables performance analysis and simulation of cloud resource management policies, which allows cloud providers to improve their systems' Quality of Service (QoS) and researchers to evaluate new policies without deploying expensive large scale environments. However, workload modeling is challenging in the context of cloud computing due to the virtualization layer overhead, insufficient tracelogs available for analysis, and complex workloads. These factors contribute to a lack of methodologies and models to characterize applications hosted in the cloud. To tackle the above issues, we propose a web application model to capture the behavioral patterns of different user profiles and to support analysis and simulation of resources utilization in cloud environments. A model validation was performed using graphic and statistical hypothesis methods. An implementation of our model is provided as an extension of the CloudSim simulator.
summary: @cite_15 offers cloud workload prediction based on autoregressive integrated moving average. They argue that proactive dynamic provisioning of resources could achieve good quality of service. Their model's accuracy is evaluated by predicting future workloads of real request traces to web servers. Additionally, @cite_3 developed a workload model for the CloudSim simulator using generalised extreme value lambda distributions. This model captures user behavioural patterns and supports the simulation of resource utilisation in clouds. They argue that user behaviour must be considered in workload modelling to reflect realistic conditions. Our approach share this view: we apply a runtime behaviour analysis to find a workflow enactment plan that best matches the infrastructure load including user activities.