text: Marginal MAP inference involves making MAP predictions in systems defined with latent variables or missing information. It is significantly more difficult than pure marginalization and MAP tasks, for which a large class of efficient and convergent variational algorithms, such as dual decomposition, exist. In this work, we generalize dual decomposition to a generic power sum inference task, which includes marginal MAP, along with pure marginalization and MAP, as special cases. Our method is based on a block coordinate descent algorithm on a new convex decomposition bound, that is guaranteed to converge monotonically, and can be parallelized efficiently. We demonstrate our approach on marginal MAP queries defined on real-world problems from the UAI approximate inference challenge, showing that our framework is faster and more reliable than previous methods.
  @cite_18: Marginal MAP problems are known to be very difficult tasks for graphical models and are so far solved exactly by systematic search guided by a join-tree upper bound. In this paper, we develop new AND OR branch and bound algorithms for marginal MAP that use heuristics extracted from weighted mini-buckets enhanced with message-passing updates. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the resulting search algorithms against previous join-tree based approaches, which we also extend to accommodate high induced width models, through extensive empirical evaluations. Our results show not only orders-of-magnitude improvements over the state-of-the-art, but also the ability to solve problem instances well beyond the reach of previous approaches.
  @cite_7: Graphical models (e.g., Bayesian and constraint networks, influence diagrams, and Markov decision processes) have become a central paradigm for knowledge representation and reasoning in both artificial intelligence and computer science in general. These models are used to perform many reasoning tasks, such as scheduling, planning and learning, diagnosis and prediction, design, hardware and software verification, and bioinformatics. These problems can be stated as the formal tasks of constraint satisfaction and satisfiability, combinatorial optimization, and probabilistic inference. It is well known that the tasks are computationally hard, but research during the past three decades has yielded a variety of principles and techniques that significantly advanced the state of the art. In this book we provide comprehensive coverage of the primary exact algorithms for reasoning with such models. The main feature exploited by the algorithms is the model's graph. We present inference-based, message-passing schemes (e.g., variable-elimination) and search-based, conditioning schemes (e.g., cycle-cutset conditioning and AND OR search). Each class possesses distinguished characteristics and in particular has different time vs. space behavior. We emphasize the dependence of both schemes on few graph parameters such as the treewidth, cycle-cutset, and (the pseudo-tree) height. We believe the principles outlined here would serve well in moving forward to approximation and anytime-based schemes. The target audience of this book is researchers and students in the artificial intelligence and machine learning area, and beyond. Table of Contents: Preface Introduction What are Graphical Models Inference: Bucket Elimination for Deterministic Networks Inference: Bucket Elimination for Probabilistic Networks Tree-Clustering Schemes AND OR Search Spaces and Algorithms for Graphical Models Combining Search and Inference: Trading Space for Time Conclusion Bibliography Author's Biography
  @cite_0: Message-passing algorithms have emerged as powerful techniques for approximate inference in graphical models. When these algorithms converge, they can be shown to find local (or sometimes even global) optima of variational formulations to the inference problem. But many of the most popular algorithms are not guaranteed to converge. This has lead to recent interest in convergent message-passing algorithms. In this paper, we present a unified view of convergent message-passing algorithms. We present a simple derivation of an abstract algorithm, tree-consistency bound optimization (TCBO) that is provably convergent in both its sum and max product forms. We then show that many of the existing convergent algorithms are instances of our TCBO algorithm, and obtain novel convergent algorithms "for free" by exchanging maximizations and summations in existing algorithms. In particular, we show that Wainwright's non-convergent sum-product algorithm for tree based variational bounds, is actually convergent with the right update order for the case where trees are monotonic chains.
  @cite_19: Important inference problems in statistical physics, computer vision, error-correcting coding theory, and artificial intelligence can all be reformulated as the computation of marginal probabilities on factor graphs. The belief propagation (BP) algorithm is an efficient way to solve these problems that is exact when the factor graph is a tree, but only approximate when the factor graph has cycles. We show that BP fixed points correspond to the stationary points of the Bethe approximation of the free energy for a factor graph. We explain how to obtain region-based free energy approximations that improve the Bethe approximation, and corresponding generalized belief propagation (GBP) algorithms. We emphasize the conditions a free energy approximation must satisfy in order to be a "valid" or "maxent-normal" approximation. We describe the relationship between four different methods that can be used to generate valid approximations: the "Bethe method", the "junction graph method", the "cluster variation method", and the "region graph method". Finally, we explain how to tell whether a region-based approximation, and its corresponding GBP algorithm, is likely to be accurate, and describe empirical results showing that GBP can significantly outperform BP.
  @cite_5: We describe an algorithm for approximate inference in graphical models based on Holder's inequality that provides upper and lower bounds on common summation problems such as computing the partition function or probability of evidence in a graphical model. Our algorithm unifies and extends several existing approaches, including variable elimination techniques such as mini-bucket elimination and variational methods such as tree reweighted belief propagation and conditional entropy decomposition. We show that our method inherits benefits from each approach to provide significantly better bounds on sum-product tasks.
summary: On the other hand, working in the primal domain ensures a bound, but usually at the cost of enumerating a large number of trees. @cite_19 heuristically select a small number of trees to avoid being too inefficient, while @cite_0 focus on trying to speed up the updates on a given collection of trees. Another primal bound is weighted mini-bucket (WMB, @cite_5 ), which can represent a large collection of trees compactly and is easily applied to marginal MAP using the weighted log partition function viewpoint @cite_7 @cite_18 ; however, existing optimization algorithms for WMB are non-monotonic, and often fail to converge, especially on marginal MAP tasks.