text: Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) place priors over the parameters in a neural network. Inference in BNNs, however, is difficult; all inference methods for BNNs are approximate. In this work, we empirically compare the quality of predictive uncertainty estimates for 10 common inference methods on both regression and classification tasks. Our experiments demonstrate that commonly used metrics (e.g. test log-likelihood) can be misleading. Our experiments also indicate that inference innovations designed to capture structure in the posterior do not necessarily produce high quality posterior approximations.
  @cite_0: In this paper we propose a new framework for learning from large scale datasets based on iterative learning from small mini-batches. By adding the right amount of noise to a standard stochastic gradient optimization algorithm we show that the iterates will converge to samples from the true posterior distribution as we anneal the stepsize. This seamless transition between optimization and Bayesian posterior sampling provides an inbuilt protection against overfitting. We also propose a practical method for Monte Carlo estimates of posterior statistics which monitors a "sampling threshold" and collects samples after it has been surpassed. We apply the method to three models: a mixture of Gaussians, logistic regression and ICA with natural gradients.
  @cite_5: Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling methods provide a mechanism for defining distant proposals with high acceptance probabilities in a Metropolis-Hastings framework, enabling more efficient exploration of the state space than standard random-walk proposals. The popularity of such methods has grown significantly in recent years. However, a limitation of HMC methods is the required gradient computation for simulation of the Hamiltonian dynamical system--such computation is infeasible in problems involving a large sample size or streaming data. Instead, we must rely on a noisy gradient estimate computed from a subset of the data. In this paper, we explore the properties of such a stochastic gradient HMC approach. Surprisingly, the natural implementation of the stochastic approximation can be arbitrarily bad. To address this problem we introduce a variant that uses second-order Langevin dynamics with a friction term that counteracts the effects of the noisy gradient, maintaining the desired target distribution as the invariant distribution. Results on simulated data validate our theory. We also provide an application of our methods to a classification task using neural networks and to online Bayesian matrix factorization.
  @cite_4: 
  @cite_12: Large multilayer neural networks trained with backpropagation have recently achieved state-of-the-art results in a wide range of problems. However, using backprop for neural net learning still has some disadvantages, e.g., having to tune a large number of hyperparameters to the data, lack of calibrated probabilistic predictions, and a tendency to overfit the training data. In principle, the Bayesian approach to learning neural networks does not have these problems. However, existing Bayesian techniques lack scalability to large dataset and network sizes. In this work we present a novel scalable method for learning Bayesian neural networks, called probabilistic backpropagation (PBP). Similar to classical backpropagation, PBP works by computing a forward propagation of probabilities through the network and then doing a backward computation of gradients. A series of experiments on ten real-world datasets show that PBP is significantly faster than other techniques, while offering competitive predictive abilities. Our experiments also show that PBP provides accurate estimates of the posterior variance on the network weights.
summary: In literature, posteriors for Bayesian Neural Network models obtained by Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) @cite_12 are frequently used as ground truth. However, HMC scales poorly on high dimensional parameter space and large datasets @cite_0 @cite_4 . Mini-batched versions of HMC, such as Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics (SGLD) @cite_0 and Stochastic Gadient HMC @cite_5 , have been introduced to address the issue of scalability. However, these methods still suffer from lower mixing rate and are not theoretically guaranteed to converge to the true posterior when model assumptions are not met (e.g. when the true model of the gradient noise is not well-estimated).