text: We provide a framework for modeling social network formation through conditional multinomial logit models from discrete choice and random utility theory, in which each new edge is viewed as a “choice” made by a node to connect to another node, based on (generic) features of the other nodes available to make a connection. This perspective on network formation unifies existing models such as preferential attachment, triadic closure, and node fitness, which are all special cases, and thereby provides a flexible means for conceptualizing, estimating, and comparing models. The lens of discrete choice theory also provides several new tools for analyzing social network formation; for example, the significance of node features can be evaluated in a statistically rigorous manner, and mixtures of existing models can be estimated by adapting known expectation-maximization algorithms. We demonstrate the flexibility of our framework through examples that analyze a number of synthetic and real-world datasets. For example, we provide rigorous methods for estimating preferential attachment models and show how to separate the effects of preferential attachment and triadic closure. Non-parametric estimates of the importance of degree show a highly linear trend, and we expose the importance of looking carefully at nodes with degree zero. Examining the formation of a large citation graph, we find evidence for an increased role of degree when accounting for age.
  @cite_29: Networks have recently emerged as a powerful tool to describe and quantify many complex systems, with applications in engineering, communications, ecology, biochemistry and genetics. A general technique to divide network vertices in groups and sub-groups is reported. Revealing such underlying hierarchies in turn allows the predicting of missing links from partial data with higher accuracy than previous methods.
  @cite_9: Given a snapshot of a social network, can we infer which new interactions among its members are likely to occur in the near future? We formalize this question as the link-prediction problem, and we develop approaches to link prediction based on measures for analyzing the “proximity” of nodes in a network. Experiments on large coauthorship networks suggest that information about future interactions can be extracted from network topology alone, and that fairly subtle measures for detecting node proximity can outperform more direct measures. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
  @cite_14: Link prediction in complex networks has attracted increasing attention from both physical and computer science communities. The algorithms can be used to extract missing information, identify spurious interactions, evaluate network evolving mechanisms, and so on. This article summaries recent progress about link prediction algorithms, emphasizing on the contributions from physical perspectives and approaches, such as the random-walk-based methods and the maximum likelihood methods. We also introduce three typical applications: reconstruction of networks, evaluation of network evolving mechanism and classification of partially labeled networks. Finally, we introduce some applications and outline future challenges of link prediction algorithms.
summary: There is also a connection with the literature on link prediction in social networks @cite_9 . A network formation model implicitly makes claims about what edges are most likely to form next, and so can be evaluated by the same metrics as link prediction algorithms @cite_14 . Features like distance, common neighbors and degree have been shown to be predictive of link formation in multiple contexts @cite_9 @cite_29 . However, in that literature, the main focus of interest is usually predictive accuracy, rather than a robust understanding of the drivers of formation. While we use predictive accuracy as a measure of goodness of fit, we are more concerned with interpretability of the model and estimates, which is one of the advantages of the conditional logit model.