text: Infrastructure as a service clouds hide the complexity of maintaining the physical infrastructure with a slight disadvantage: they also hide their internal working details. Should users need knowledge about these details e.g., to increase the reliability or performance of their applications, they would need solutions to detect behavioural changes in the underlying system. Existing runtime solutions for such purposes offer limited capabilities as they are mostly restricted to revealing weekly or yearly behavioural periodicity in the infrastructure. This article proposes a technique for predicting generic background workload by means of simulations that are capable of providing additional knowledge of the underlying private cloud systems in order to support activities like cloud orchestration or workflow enactment. Our technique uses long-running scientific workflows and their behaviour discrepancies and tries to replicate these in a simulated cloud with known (trace-based) workloads. We argue that the better we can mimic the current discrepancies the better we can tell expected workloads in the near future on the real life cloud. We evaluated the proposed prediction approach with a biochemical application on both real and simulated cloud infrastructures. The proposed algorithm has shown to produce significantly ( 20 ) better workload predictions for the future of simulated clouds than random workload selection.
  @cite_4: The Cloud phenomenon brings along the cost-saving benefit of dynamic scaling. As a result, the question of efficient resource scaling arises. Prediction is necessary as the virtual resources that Cloud computing uses have a setup time that is not negligible. We propose an approach to the problem of workload prediction based on identifying similar past occurrences of the current short-term workload history. We present in detail the Cloud client resource auto-scaling algorithm that uses the above approach to help when scaling decisions are made, as well as experimental results by using real-world traces from Cloud and Grid platforms. We also present an overall evaluation of this approach, its potential and usefulness for enabling efficient auto-scaling of Cloud user resources.
summary: @cite_4 used workload prediction based on identifying similar past occurrences of the current short-term workload history for efficient resource scaling. This approach is the closest to ours (albeit, we have a different focus support for on-line decision making in scientific workflow enactors etc.), as it uses real-world traces from clouds and grids. They examine historic data to identify similar usage patterns to a current window of records, and their algorithm predicts the system usage by extrapolating beyond the identified patterns. In contrast, our work's specific focus on scientific workflows allows the analysis and prediction of recently observed execution time discrepancies, by introducing simulations to the prediction and validation phases.