text: We propose a new approach to value function approximation which combines linear temporal difference reinforcement learning with subspace identification. In practical applications, reinforcement learning (RL) is complicated by the fact that state is either high-dimensional or partially observable. Therefore, RL methods are designed to work with features of state rather than state itself, and the success or failure of learning is often determined by the suitability of the selected features. By comparison, subspace identification (SSID) methods are designed to select a feature set which preserves as much information as possible about state. In this paper we connect the two approaches, looking at the problem of reinforcement learning with a large set of features, each of which may only be marginally useful for value function approximation. We introduce a new algorithm for this situation, called Predictive State Temporal Difference (PSTD) learning. As in SSID for predictive state representations, PSTD finds a linear compression operator that projects a large set of features down to a small set that preserves the maximum amount of predictive information. As in RL, PSTD then uses a Bellman recursion to estimate a value function. We discuss the connection between PSTD and prior approaches in RL and SSID. We prove that PSTD is statistically consistent, perform several experiments that illustrate its properties, and demonstrate its potential on a difficult optimal stopping problem.
  @cite_37: TD( ) is a popular family of algorithms for approximate policy evaluation in large MDPs. TD( ) works by incrementally updating the value function after each observed transition. It has two major drawbacks: it makes ine cient use of data, and it requires the user to manually tune a stepsize schedule for good performance. For the case of linear value function approximations and = 0, the Least-Squares TD (LSTD) algorithm of Bradtke and Barto (Bradtke and Barto, 1996) eliminates all stepsize parameters and improves data e ciency. This paper extends Bradtke and Barto's work in three signi cant ways. First, it presents a simpler derivation of the LSTD algorithm. Second, it generalizes from = 0 to arbitrary values of ; at the extreme of = 1, the resulting algorithm is shown to be a practical formulation of supervised linear regression. Third, it presents a novel, intuitive interpretation of LSTD as a model-based reinforcement learning technique.
  @cite_33: We show that linear value-function approximation is equivalent to a form of linear model approximation. We then derive a relationship between the model-approximation error and the Bellman error, and show how this relationship can guide feature selection for model improvement and or value-function improvement. We also show how these results give insight into the behavior of existing feature-selection algorithms.
summary: Recently, looked at the problem of value function estimation from the perspective of both model-free and model-based reinforcement learning @cite_33 . The model-free approach estimates a value function directly from sample trajectories, i.e., from sequences of feature vectors of visited states. The model-based approach, by contrast, first learns a model and then computes the value function from the learned model. compared LSTD (a model-free method) to a model-based method in which we first learn a linear model by viewing features as a proxy for state (leading to a linear transition matrix that predicts future features from past features), and then compute a value function from this approximate model. demonstrated that these two approaches compute exactly the same value function @cite_33 , formalizing a fact that has been recognized to some degree before @cite_37 .