text: In this paper, we propose an offline counterfactual policy estimation framework called Genie to optimize Sponsored Search Marketplace. Genie employs an open box simulation engine with click calibration model to compute the KPI impact of any modification to the system. From the experimental results on Bing traffic, we showed that Genie performs better than existing observational approaches that employs randomized experiments for traffic slices that have frequent policy updates. We also show that Genie can be used to tune completely new policies efficiently without creating risky randomized experiments due to cold start problem. As time of today, Genie hosts more than 10000 optimization jobs yearly which runs more than 30 Million processing node hours of big data jobs for Bing Ads. For the last 3 years, Genie has been proven to be the one of the major platforms to optimize Bing Ads Marketplace due to its reliability under frequent policy changes and its efficiency to minimize risks in real experiments.
  @cite_19: This work shows how to leverage causal inference to understand the behavior of complex learning systems interacting with their environment and predict the consequences of changes to the system. Such predictions allow both humans and algorithms to select the changes that would have improved the system performance. This work is illustrated by experiments on the ad placement system associated with the Bing search engine.
  @cite_14: This paper identifies a severe problem of the counterfactual risk estimator typically used in batch learning from logged bandit feedback (BLBF), and proposes the use of an alternative estimator that avoids this problem. In the BLBF setting, the learner does not receive full-information feedback like in supervised learning, but observes feedback only for the actions taken by a historical policy. This makes BLBF algorithms particularly attractive for training online systems (e.g., ad placement, web search, recommendation) using their historical logs. The Counterfactual Risk Minimization (CRM) principle [1] offers a general recipe for designing BLBF algorithms. It requires a counterfactual risk estimator, and virtually all existing works on BLBF have focused on a particular unbiased estimator. We show that this conventional estimator suffers from a propensity overfitting problem when used for learning over complex hypothesis spaces. We propose to replace the risk estimator with a self-normalized estimator, showing that it neatly avoids this problem. This naturally gives rise to a new learning algorithm - Normalized Policy Optimizer for Exponential Models (Norm-POEM) - for structured output prediction using linear rules. We evaluate the empirical effectiveness of Norm-POEM on several multi-label classification problems, finding that it consistently outperforms the conventional estimator.
  @cite_21: Optimizing an interactive system against a predefined online metric is particularly challenging, especially when the metric is computed from user feedback such as clicks and payments. The key challenge is the counterfactual nature: in the case of Web search, any change to a component of the search engine may result in a different search result page for the same query, but we normally cannot infer reliably from search log how users would react to the new result page. Consequently, it appears impossible to accurately estimate online metrics that depend on user feedback, unless the new engine is actually run to serve live users and compared with a baseline in a controlled experiment. This approach, while valid and successful, is unfortunately expensive and time-consuming. In this paper, we propose to address this problem using causal inference techniques, under the contextual-bandit framework. This approach effectively allows one to run potentially many online experiments offline from search log, making it possible to estimate and optimize online metrics quickly and inexpensively. Focusing on an important component in a commercial search engine, we show how these ideas can be instantiated and applied, and obtain very promising results that suggest the wide applicability of these techniques.
summary: Counterfactual reasoning and estimation systems @cite_19 @cite_21 @cite_14 answer questions like "how would the system performance had been changed if the modification had been applied to the system during log collection?". The idea for these systems is to use online event logs to train models and predict KPIs for new modifications.