text: Anticipating possible behaviors of traffic participants is an essential capability of autonomous vehicles. Many behavior detection and maneuver recognition methods only have a very limited prediction horizon that leaves inadequate time and space for planning. To avoid unsatisfactory reactive decisions, it is essential to count long-term future rewards in planning, which requires extending the prediction horizon. In this paper, we uncover that clues to vehicle behaviors over an extended horizon can be found in vehicle interaction, which makes it possible to anticipate the likelihood of a certain behavior, even in the absence of any clear maneuver pattern. We adopt a recurrent neural network (RNN) for observation encoding, and based on that, we propose a novel vehicle behavior interaction network (VBIN) to capture the vehicle interaction from the hidden states and connection feature of each interaction pair. The output of our method is a probabilistic likelihood of multiple behavior classes, which matches the multimodal and uncertain nature of the distant future. A systematic comparison of our method against two state-of-the-art methods and another two baseline methods on a publicly available real highway dataset is provided, showing that our method has superior accuracy and advanced capability for interaction modeling.
  @cite_18: In this paper, we propose a novel neural network model called RNN Encoder-Decoder that consists of two recurrent neural networks (RNN). One RNN encodes a sequence of symbols into a fixed-length vector representation, and the other decodes the representation into another sequence of symbols. The encoder and decoder of the proposed model are jointly trained to maximize the conditional probability of a target sequence given a source sequence. The performance of a statistical machine translation system is empirically found to improve by using the conditional probabilities of phrase pairs computed by the RNN Encoder-Decoder as an additional feature in the existing log-linear model. Qualitatively, we show that the proposed model learns a semantically and syntactically meaningful representation of linguistic phrases.
  @cite_4: We introduce a Deep Stochastic IOC RNN Encoder-decoder framework, DESIRE, for the task of future predictions of multiple interacting agents in dynamic scenes. DESIRE effectively predicts future locations of objects in multiple scenes by 1) accounting for the multi-modal nature of the future prediction (i.e., given the same context, future may vary), 2) foreseeing the potential future outcomes and make a strategic prediction based on that, and 3) reasoning not only from the past motion history, but also from the scene context as well as the interactions among the agents. DESIRE achieves these in a single end-to-end trainable neural network model, while being computationally efficient. The model first obtains a diverse set of hypothetical future prediction samples employing a conditional variational auto-encoder, which are ranked and refined by the following RNN scoring-regression module. Samples are scored by accounting for accumulated future rewards, which enables better long-term strategic decisions similar to IOC frameworks. An RNN scene context fusion module jointly captures past motion histories, the semantic scene context and interactions among multiple agents. A feedback mechanism iterates over the ranking and refinement to further boost the prediction accuracy. We evaluate our model on two publicly available datasets: KITTI and Stanford Drone Dataset. Our experiments show that the proposed model significantly improves the prediction accuracy compared to other baseline methods.
  @cite_7: Human motion and behaviour in crowded spaces is influenced by several factors, such as the dynamics of other moving agents in the scene, as well as the static elements that might be perceived as points of attraction or obstacles. In this work, we present a new model for human trajectory prediction which is able to take advantage of both human-human and human-space interactions. The future trajectory of humans, are generated by observing their past positions and interactions with the surroundings. To this end, we propose a "context-aware" recurrent neural network LSTM model, which can learn and predict human motion in crowded spaces such as a sidewalk, a museum or a shopping mall. We evaluate our model on a public pedestrian datasets, and we contribute a new challenging dataset that collects videos of humans that navigate in a (real) crowded space such as a big museum. Results show that our approach can predict human trajectories better when compared to previous state-of-the-art forecasting models.
  @cite_9: In this paper, we propose a deep learning-based vehicle trajectory prediction technique which can generate the future trajectory sequence of the surrounding vehicles in real time. We employ the encoder-decoder architecture which analyzes the pattern underlying in the past trajectory using the long short term memory (LSTM)-based encoder and generates the future trajectory sequence using the LSTM-based decoder. This structure produces the @math most likely trajectory candidates over occupancy grid map by employing the beam search technique which keeps the @math locally best candidates from the decoder output. The experiments conducted on highway traffic scenarios show that the prediction accuracy of the proposed method is significantly higher than the conventional trajectory prediction techniques.
  @cite_29: Crowd behavior understanding is crucial yet challenging across a wide range of applications, since crowd behavior is inherently determined by a sequential decision-making process based on various factors, such as the pedestrians' own destinations, interaction with nearby pedestrians and anticipation of upcoming events. In this paper, we propose a novel framework of Social-Aware Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning (SA-GAIL) to mimic the underlying decision-making process of pedestrians in crowds. Specifically, we infer the latent factors of human decision-making process in an unsupervised manner by extending the Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning framework to anticipate future paths of pedestrians. Different factors of human decision making are disentangled with mutual information maximization, with the process modeled by collision avoidance regularization and Social-Aware LSTMs. Experimental results demonstrate the potential of our framework in disentangling the latent decision-making factors of pedestrians and stronger abilities in predicting future trajectories.
  @cite_0: Forecasting the motion of surrounding vehicles is a critical ability for an autonomous vehicle deployed in complex traffic. Motion of all vehicles in a scene is governed by the traffic context, i.e., the motion and relative spatial configuration of neighboring vehicles. In this paper we propose an LSTM encoder-decoder model that uses convolutional social pooling as an improvement to social pooling layers for robustly learning interdependencies in vehicle motion. Additionally, our model outputs a multi-modal predictive distribution over future trajectories based on maneuver classes. We evaluate our model using the publicly available NGSIM US-101 and I-80 datasets. Our results show improvement over the state of the art in terms of RMS values of prediction error and negative log-likelihoods of true future trajectories under the model's predictive distribution. We also present a qualitative analysis of the model's predicted distributions for various traffic scenarios.
  @cite_19: Advanced Driver Assistance Systems have been shown to greatly improve road safety. However, existing systems are typically reactive with an inability to understand complex traffic scenarios. We present a method to predict driver intention as the vehicle enters an intersection using a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) based Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). The model is learnt using the position, heading and velocity fused from GPS, IMU and odometry data collected by the ego-vehicle. In this paper we focus on determining the earliest possible moment in which we can classify the driver's intention at an intersection. We consider the outcome of this work an essential component for all levels of road vehicle automation.
  @cite_5: Predicting driver behavior in general, and the problem of predicting an impending lane change in particular have been studied in the community under different aspects and setups. Mostly the problem is approached as a classification problem in which each class represents a possible action in the next few seconds. In this work, we re-define the task as a regression problem, in which the time until the ego-vehicle touches the other lane is predicted. In particular, we use Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) networks to learn to predict the time to lane change. Even though a regression-based formulation of the problem captures more information and should thus be harder to learn, we can show that it provides slightly better results than a comparable classification-based approach. Moreover, the additional precision that we get about the exact time of the impending the lane change could be used to further increase a user's acceptance of advanced driver assistance systems. We also show that it is possible to individualize the network by fine-tuning it to a particular driver's behavior. The fine-tuning results in an improvement of F1-Score while observing about 20 minutes of driving data from that driver.
  @cite_16: Pedestrians follow different trajectories to avoid obstacles and accommodate fellow pedestrians. Any autonomous vehicle navigating such a scene should be able to foresee the future positions of pedestrians and accordingly adjust its path to avoid collisions. This problem of trajectory prediction can be viewed as a sequence generation task, where we are interested in predicting the future trajectory of people based on their past positions. Following the recent success of Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) models for sequence prediction tasks, we propose an LSTM model which can learn general human movement and predict their future trajectories. This is in contrast to traditional approaches which use hand-crafted functions such as Social forces. We demonstrate the performance of our method on several public datasets. Our model outperforms state-of-the-art methods on some of these datasets. We also analyze the trajectories predicted by our model to demonstrate the motion behaviour learned by our model.
  @cite_20: Trajectory Prediction of dynamic objects is a widely studied topic in the field of artificial intelligence. Thanks to a large number of applications like predicting abnormal events, navigation system for the blind, etc. there have been many approaches to attempt learning patterns of motion directly from data using a wide variety of techniques ranging from hand-crafted features to sophisticated deep learning models for unsupervised feature learning. All these approaches have been limited by problems like inefficient features in the case of hand crafted features, large error propagation across the predicted trajectory and no information of static artefacts around the dynamic moving objects. We propose an end to end deep learning model to learn the motion patterns of humans using different navigational modes directly from data using the much popular sequence to sequence model coupled with a soft attention mechanism. We also propose a novel approach to model the static artefacts in a scene and using these to predict the dynamic trajectories. The proposed method, tested on trajectories of pedestrians, consistently outperforms previously proposed state of the art approaches on a variety of large scale data sets. We also show how our architecture can be naturally extended to handle multiple modes of movement (say pedestrians, skaters, bikers and buses) simultaneously.
summary: Many learning-based prediction methods follow an RNN encoder-decoder structure @cite_18 and use it for predicting the trajectory of pedestrians @cite_9 @cite_4 @cite_29 and vehicles @cite_0 @cite_4 . RNNs are an alternative to the traditional methods (e.g., SVM, Gaussian process) @cite_19 @cite_5 for capturing maneuver patterns. Some works move one step further and consider the multi-agent interactions among pedestrians @cite_16 @cite_4 @cite_7 @cite_20 and vehicles @cite_4 @cite_0 in the RNN structure. The interaction-aware models for vehicles mainly adopt a social pooling strategy using RNN hidden states, which may be problematic for a highly dynamic scenario, as elaborated in the following.