text: Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) place priors over the parameters in a neural network. Inference in BNNs, however, is difficult; all inference methods for BNNs are approximate. In this work, we empirically compare the quality of predictive uncertainty estimates for 10 common inference methods on both regression and classification tasks. Our experiments demonstrate that commonly used metrics (e.g. test log-likelihood) can be misleading. Our experiments also indicate that inference innovations designed to capture structure in the posterior do not necessarily produce high quality posterior approximations.
  @cite_7: We introduce a new, efficient, principled and backpropagation-compatible algorithm for learning a probability distribution on the weights of a neural network, called Bayes by Backprop. It regularises the weights by minimising a compression cost, known as the variational free energy or the expected lower bound on the marginal likelihood. We show that this principled kind of regularisation yields comparable performance to dropout on MNIST classification. We then demonstrate how the learnt uncertainty in the weights can be used to improve generalisation in non-linear regression problems, and how this weight uncertainty can be used to drive the exploration-exploitation trade-off in reinforcement learning.
  @cite_8: We reinterpret multiplicative noise in neural networks as auxiliary random variables that augment the approximate posterior in a variational setting for Bayesian neural networks. We show that through this interpretation it is both efficient and straightforward to improve the approximation by employing normalizing flows while still allowing for local reparametrizations and a tractable lower bound. In experiments we show that with this new approximation we can significantly improve upon classical mean field for Bayesian neural networks on both predictive accuracy as well as predictive uncertainty.
  @cite_1: 
  @cite_3: Variational methods have been previously explored as a tractable approximation to Bayesian inference for neural networks. However the approaches proposed so far have only been applicable to a few simple network architectures. This paper introduces an easy-to-implement stochastic variational method (or equivalently, minimum description length loss function) that can be applied to most neural networks. Along the way it revisits several common regularisers from a variational perspective. It also provides a simple pruning heuristic that can both drastically reduce the number of network weights and lead to improved generalisation. Experimental results are provided for a hierarchical multidimensional recurrent neural network applied to the TIMIT speech corpus.
  @cite_2: We introduce a variational Bayesian neural network where the parameters are governed via a probability distribution on random matrices. Specifically, we employ a matrix variate Gaussian (Gupta & Nagar, 1999) parameter posterior distribution where we explicitly model the covariance among the input and output dimensions of each layer. Furthermore, with approximate covariance matrices we can achieve a more efficient way to represent those correlations that is also cheaper than fully factorized parameter posteriors. We further show that with the "local reprarametrization trick" (, 2015) on this posterior distribution we arrive at a Gaussian Process (Rasmussen, 2006) interpretation of the hidden units in each layer and we, similarly with (Gal & Ghahramani, 2015), provide connections with deep Gaussian processes. We continue in taking advantage of this duality and incorporate "pseudo-data" (Snelson & Ghahramani, 2005) in our model, which in turn allows for more efficient posterior sampling while maintaining the properties of the original model. The validity of the proposed approach is verified through extensive experiments.
summary: As a result, much effort has been spent on variational methods. Mean Field Variational Bayes for BNNs were in introduced in @cite_3 , the gradient computation of which was later improved in Bayes by Backprop (BBB) . However, the fully factorized Gaussian variational family used in BBB is unable to capture correlation amongst the parameters in the posterior. In contrast, Matrix Gaussian Posteriors (MVG) @cite_2 , Multiplicative Normalizing Flows (MNF) @cite_8 , and Bayes by Hypernet (BBH) @cite_7 are explicitly designed to capture posterior correlation by imposing structured approximation families; works like Black Box @math -Divergence @cite_1 and Probabilistic Backpropagation (PBP) use a richer family of divergence measures, encouraging approximate posteriors to capture important properties of true posterior distributions.