Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Estimating efficacy of measles supplementary immunization activities via
  discrete-time modeling of disease incidence time series   Measles is a significant source of global disease burden and child mortality.
Measles vaccination through routine immunization (RI) programs in high-burden
settings remains a challenge due to poor health care infrastructure and access.
Supplementary immunization activities (SIA) in the form of vaccination
campaigns are therefore implemented to prevent measles outbreaks by reducing
the size of the susceptible population. The SIA efficacy, defined as the
fraction of susceptible population immunized by an SIA, is a critical metric
for assessing campaign effectiveness. We propose a discrete-time hidden Markov
model for estimating SIA efficacy and forecasting future incidence trends using
reported measles incidence data. Our approach extends the time-series
susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR) framework by adding a model component to
capture the impact of SIAs on the susceptible population. It also accounts for
under-reporting and its associated uncertainty via a two-stage estimation
procedure with uncertainty propagation. The proposed model can be used to
estimate the underlying susceptible population dynamics, assess how many
susceptible people were immunized by past SIAs, and forecast incidence trends
in the future under various hypothetical SIA scenarios. We examine model
performance via simulations under various levels of under-reporting, and apply
the model to analyze monthly reported measles incidence in Benin from 2012 to
2018.

15
The categories of this paper are: nucl-ex
25
The categories of this paper are: patt-sol
26
The categories of this paper are: bayes-an
33
The categories of this paper are: plasm-ph
18
The categories of this paper are: econ
5
The categories of this paper are: gr-qc
35
The categories of this paper are: mtrl-th
27
The categories of this paper are: comp-gas
22
The categories of this paper are: chao-dyn
0
The categories of this paper are: hep-ph
17
The categories of this paper are: q-fin
9
The categories of this paper are: nlin
7
The categories of this paper are: hep-th
12
The categories of this paper are: nucl-th
20
The categories of this paper are: acc-phys
29
The categories of this paper are: funct-an