Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: A Bayesian framework for verification and recalibration of ensemble
  forecasts: How uncertain is NAO predictability?   Predictability estimates of ensemble prediction systems are uncertain due to
limited numbers of past forecasts and observations. To account for such
uncertainty, this paper proposes a Bayesian inferential framework that provides
a simple 6-parameter representation of ensemble forecasting systems and the
corresponding observations. The framework is probabilistic, and thus allows for
quantifying uncertainty in predictability measures such as correlation skill
and signal-to-noise ratios. It also provides a natural way to produce
recalibrated probabilistic predictions from uncalibrated ensembles forecasts.
The framework is used to address important questions concerning the skill of
winter hindcasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation for 1992-2011 issued by the
Met Office GloSea5 climate prediction system. Although there is much
uncertainty in the correlation between ensemble mean and observations, there is
strong evidence of skill: the 95% credible interval of the correlation
coefficient of [0.19,0.68] does not overlap zero. There is also strong evidence
that the forecasts are not exchangeable with the observations: With over 99%
certainty, the signal-to-noise ratio of the forecasts is smaller than the
signal-to-noise ratio of the observations, which suggests that raw forecasts
should not be taken as representative scenarios of the observations. Forecast
recalibration is thus required, which can be coherently addressed within the
proposed framework.

13
The categories of this paper are: quant-ph
14
The categories of this paper are: math-ph
17
The categories of this paper are: q-fin
2
The categories of this paper are: math
1
The categories of this paper are: cs
31
The categories of this paper are: ao-sci
21
The categories of this paper are: adap-org
34
The categories of this paper are: chem-ph
3
The categories of this paper are: physics
25
The categories of this paper are: patt-sol
19
The categories of this paper are: eess
30
The categories of this paper are: q-alg
35
The categories of this paper are: mtrl-th
20
The categories of this paper are: acc-phys
8
The categories of this paper are: hep-ex
36
The categories of this paper are: cmp-lg