Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Assessing the global and local uncertainty in scientific evidence in the
  presence of model misspecification   Scientists need to compare the support for models based on observed
phenomena. The main goal of the evidential paradigm is to quantify the strength
of evidence in the data for a reference model relative to an alternative model.
This is done via an evidence function, such as $\Delta SIC$, an estimator of
the sample size scaled difference of divergences between the generating
mechanism and the competing models. To use evidence, either for decision making
or as a guide to the accumulation of knowledge, an understanding of the
uncertainty in the evidence is needed. This uncertainty is well characterized
by the standard statistical theory of estimation. Unfortunately, the standard
theory breaks down if the models are misspecified, as it is normally the case
in scientific studies. We develop non-parametric bootstrap methodologies for
estimating the sampling distribution of the evidence estimator under model
misspecification. This sampling distribution allows us to determine how secure
we are in our evidential statement. We characterize this uncertainty in the
strength of evidence with two different types of confidence intervals, which we
term "global" and "local". We discuss how evidence uncertainty can be used to
improve scientific inference and illustrate this with a reanalysis of the model
identification problem in a prominent landscape ecology study (Grace and
Keeley, 2006) using structural equations.

22
The categories of this paper are: chao-dyn
14
The categories of this paper are: math-ph
6
The categories of this paper are: astro-ph
23
The categories of this paper are: solv-int
27
The categories of this paper are: comp-gas
34
The categories of this paper are: chem-ph
4
The categories of this paper are: cond-mat
21
The categories of this paper are: adap-org
25
The categories of this paper are: patt-sol
3
The categories of this paper are: physics
8
The categories of this paper are: hep-ex
10
The categories of this paper are: q-bio
36
The categories of this paper are: cmp-lg
32
The categories of this paper are: atom-ph
31
The categories of this paper are: ao-sci
20
The categories of this paper are: acc-phys