Instruct: Identify the main category of Medrxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Ascertaining the initiation of epidemic resurgences: an application to the COVID-19 second surges in Europe and the Northeast United States Assessing a potential resurgence of an epidemic outbreak with certainty is as important as challenging. The low number of infectious individuals after a long regression, and the randomness associated with it, makes it difficult to ascertain whether the infectious population is growing or just fluctuating. We have developed an approach to compute confidence intervals for the switching time from decay to growth and to compute the corresponding supra-location aggregated quantities to increase the precision of the determination. We estimated the aggregate prevalence over time for Europe and the Northeast United States to characterize the COVID-19 second surge in these regions during year 2020. We find a starting date as early as July 3 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): July 1- July 6) for Europe and August 19 (95% CI: August 16 - August 23) for the Northeast; subsequent infectious populations that, as of December 31 have always increased or remained stagnant; and the resurgences being the collective effect of each overall region with no location dominating the regional dynamics by itself.
31
The categories of this paper are: imaging
26
The categories of this paper are: systems
7
The categories of this paper are: emergency
61
The categories of this paper are: dermatology
70
The categories of this paper are: otolaryngology
55
The categories of this paper are: obstetrics
29
The categories of this paper are: anesthesia
67
The categories of this paper are: transplantation
62
The categories of this paper are: orthopedics
15
The categories of this paper are: allergy
24
The categories of this paper are: oncology
50
The categories of this paper are: medical
22
The categories of this paper are: clinical
71
The categories of this paper are: ethics
64
The categories of this paper are: ophthalmology
39
The categories of this paper are: rheumatology