Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Multiscale Influenza Forecasting   Influenza forecasting in the United States (US) is complex and challenging
for reasons including substantial spatial and temporal variability, nested
geographic scales of forecast interest, and heterogeneous surveillance
participation. Here we present a flexible influenza forecasting model called
Dante, a multiscale flu forecasting model that learns rather than prescribes
spatial, temporal, and surveillance data structure. Forecasts at the Health and
Human Services (HHS) regional and national scales are generated as linear
combinations of state forecasts with weights proportional to US Census
population estimates, resulting in coherent forecasts across nested geographic
scales. We retrospectively compare Dante's short-term and seasonal forecasts at
the state, regional, and national scales for the 2012 through 2017 flu seasons
in the US to the Dynamic Bayesian Model (DBM), a leading flu forecasting model.
Dante outperformed DBM for nearly all spatial units, flu seasons, geographic
scales, and forecasting targets. The improved performance is due to Dante
making forecasts, especially short-term forecasts, more confidently and
accurately than DBM, suggesting Dante's improved forecast scores will also
translate to more useful forecasts for the public health sector. Dante
participated in the prospective 2018/19 FluSight challenge hosted by the
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and placed 1st in both the national
and regional competition and the state competition. The methodology
underpinning Dante can be used in other disease forecasting contexts where
nested geographic scales of interest exist.

14
The categories of this paper are: math-ph
18
The categories of this paper are: econ
22
The categories of this paper are: chao-dyn
28
The categories of this paper are: alg-geom
8
The categories of this paper are: hep-ex
31
The categories of this paper are: ao-sci
21
The categories of this paper are: adap-org
19
The categories of this paper are: eess
4
The categories of this paper are: cond-mat
26
The categories of this paper are: bayes-an
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The categories of this paper are: q-fin
1
The categories of this paper are: cs
30
The categories of this paper are: q-alg
9
The categories of this paper are: nlin
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The categories of this paper are: hep-th
10
The categories of this paper are: q-bio