Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Excess registered deaths in England and Wales during the COVID-19
  pandemic, March 2020 to May 2020   Official counts of COVID-19 deaths have been criticized for potentially
including people who did not die of COVID-19 but merely died with COVID-19. I
address that critique by fitting a generalized additive model to weekly counts
of all deaths registered in England and Wales during the 2010s. The model
produces baseline rates of death registrations expected without the COVID-19
pandemic, and comparing those baselines to recent counts of registered deaths
exposes the emergence of excess deaths late in March 2020. By April's end,
England and Wales registered 45,300 $\pm$ 3200 excess deaths of adults aged
45+. Through 22 May, the last day of available all-deaths data, 56,600 $\pm$
4400 were registered (about 53% of which were of men). Both the ONS's
corresponding count of 43,205 death certificates which mention COVID-19, and
the Department of Health and Social Care's count of 33,671 deaths, are
appreciably less, implying that their counting methods have underestimated, not
overestimated, the pandemic's true death toll. If underreporting rates have
held steady during May, about 59,000 direct and indirect COVID-19 deaths might
have been registered through the end of May but not yet publicly reported in
full.

8
The categories of this paper are: hep-ex
36
The categories of this paper are: cmp-lg
3
The categories of this paper are: physics
27
The categories of this paper are: comp-gas
19
The categories of this paper are: eess
26
The categories of this paper are: bayes-an
30
The categories of this paper are: q-alg
5
The categories of this paper are: gr-qc
21
The categories of this paper are: adap-org
29
The categories of this paper are: funct-an
6
The categories of this paper are: astro-ph
4
The categories of this paper are: cond-mat
31
The categories of this paper are: ao-sci
34
The categories of this paper are: chem-ph
35
The categories of this paper are: mtrl-th
1
The categories of this paper are: cs