Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Probability and expected frequency of breakthroughs - a robust method of
  research assessment based on the double rank property of citation
  distributions   In research policy, effective measures that lead to improvements in the
generation of knowledge must be based on reliable methods of research
assessment, but for many countries and institutions this is not the case.
Publication and citation analyses can be used to estimate the part played by
countries and institutions in the global progress of knowledge, but a concrete
method of estimation is far from evident. The challenge arises because
publications that report real progress of knowledge form an extremely low
proportion of all publications; in most countries and institutions such
contributions appear less than once per year. One way to overcome this
difficulty is to calculate probabilities instead of counting the rare events on
which scientific progress is based. This study reviews and summarizes several
recent publications, and adds new results that demonstrate that the citation
distribution of normal publications allows the probability of the infrequent
events that support the progress of knowledge to be calculated.

15
The categories of this paper are: nucl-ex
22
The categories of this paper are: chao-dyn
36
The categories of this paper are: cmp-lg
29
The categories of this paper are: funct-an
18
The categories of this paper are: econ
32
The categories of this paper are: atom-ph
33
The categories of this paper are: plasm-ph
27
The categories of this paper are: comp-gas
34
The categories of this paper are: chem-ph
4
The categories of this paper are: cond-mat
19
The categories of this paper are: eess
5
The categories of this paper are: gr-qc
26
The categories of this paper are: bayes-an
35
The categories of this paper are: mtrl-th
10
The categories of this paper are: q-bio
17
The categories of this paper are: q-fin