Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Distribution of Maximum Earthquake Magnitudes in Future Time Intervals,
  Application to the Seismicity of Japan (1923-2007)   We modify the new method for the statistical estimation of the tail
distribution of earthquake seismic moments introduced by Pisarenko et al.
[2009] and apply it to the earthquake catalog of Japan (1923-2007). The method
is based on the two main limit theorems of the theory of extreme values and on
the derived duality between the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) and
Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV). We obtain the distribution of
maximum earthquake magnitudes in future time intervals of arbitrary duration
tau. This distribution can be characterized by its quantile Qq(tau) at any
desirable statistical level q. The quantile Qq(tau) provides a much more stable
and robust characteristic than the traditional absolute maximum magnitude Mmax
(Mmax can be obtained as the limit of Qq(tau) as q tends to 1, and tau tends to
infinity). The best estimates of the parameters governing the distribution of
Qq(tay) for Japan (1923-2007) are the following: Form parameter for GEV =
-0.1901 +- 0.0717; position parameter GEV(tau=200)= 6.3387 +- 0.0380; spread
parameter for GEV(tau=200)= 0.5995 +- 0.0223; Q_0.90,GEV(tau=10)= 8.34 +- 0.32.
We also estimate Qq(tau) for a set of q-values and future time periods in the
range for tau between 1 and 50 years from 2007. For comparison, the absolute
maximum estimate Mmax from GEV, which is equal to 9.57 +- 0.86, has a scatter
more than twice that of the 90 percent quantile Q_{0.90,GEV}(tau=10) of the
maximum magnitude over the next 10 years counted from 2007.

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The categories of this paper are: bayes-an
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The categories of this paper are: chao-dyn
2
The categories of this paper are: math
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The categories of this paper are: econ
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The categories of this paper are: q-bio
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The categories of this paper are: eess
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The categories of this paper are: solv-int
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The categories of this paper are: cmp-lg
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The categories of this paper are: q-alg
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The categories of this paper are: q-fin
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The categories of this paper are: nucl-th
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The categories of this paper are: hep-lat
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The categories of this paper are: astro-ph
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The categories of this paper are: cs
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The categories of this paper are: nucl-ex
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The categories of this paper are: plasm-ph