Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Space-Time Landslide Predictive Modelling   Landslides are nearly ubiquitous phenomena and pose severe threats to people,
properties, and the environment. Investigators have for long attempted to
estimate landslide hazard to determine where, when, and how destructive
landslides are expected to be in an area. This information is useful to design
landslide mitigation strategies, and to reduce landslide risk and societal and
economic losses. In the geomorphology literature, most attempts at predicting
the occurrence of populations of landslides rely on the observation that
landslides are the result of multiple interacting, conditioning and triggering
factors. Here, we propose a novel Bayesian modelling framework for the
prediction of space-time landslide occurrences of the slide type caused by
weather triggers. We consider log-Gaussian cox processes, assuming that
individual landslides stem from a point process described by an unknown
intensity function. We tested our prediction framework in the Collazzone area,
Umbria, Central Italy, for which a detailed multi-temporal landslide inventory
spanning 1941-2014 is available together with lithological and bedding data. We
tested five models of increasing complexity. Our most complex model includes
fixed effects and latent spatio-temporal effects, thus largely fulfilling the
common definition of landslide hazard in the literature. We quantified the
spatio-temporal predictive skill of our model and found that it performed
better than simpler alternatives. We then developed a novel classification
strategy and prepared an intensity-susceptibility landslide map, providing more
information than traditional susceptibility zonations for land planning and
management. We expect our novel approach to lead to better projections of
future landslides, and to improve our collective understanding of the evolution
of landscapes dominated by mass-wasting processes under geophysical and weather
triggers.

7
The categories of this paper are: hep-th
8
The categories of this paper are: hep-ex
15
The categories of this paper are: nucl-ex
23
The categories of this paper are: solv-int
5
The categories of this paper are: gr-qc
33
The categories of this paper are: plasm-ph
18
The categories of this paper are: econ
34
The categories of this paper are: chem-ph
32
The categories of this paper are: atom-ph
35
The categories of this paper are: mtrl-th
30
The categories of this paper are: q-alg
14
The categories of this paper are: math-ph
12
The categories of this paper are: nucl-th
28
The categories of this paper are: alg-geom
6
The categories of this paper are: astro-ph
2
The categories of this paper are: math