Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Sub-national levels and trends in contraceptive prevalence, unmet need,
  and demand for family planning in Nigeria with survey uncertainty   Ambitious global goals have been established to provide universal access to
affordable modern contraceptive methods. The UN's sustainable development goal
3.7.1 proposes satisfying the demand for family planning (FP) services by
increasing the proportion of women of reproductive age using modern methods. To
measure progress toward such goals in populous countries like Nigeria, it's
essential to characterize the current levels and trends of FP indicators such
as unmet need and modern contraceptive prevalence rates (mCPR). Moreover, the
substantial heterogeneity across Nigeria and scale of programmatic
implementation requires a sub-national resolution of these FP indicators.
However, significant challenges face estimating FP indicators sub-nationally in
Nigeria. In this article, we develop a robust, data-driven model to utilize all
available surveys to estimate the levels and trends of FP indicators in
Nigerian states for all women and by age-parity demographic subgroups. We
estimate that overall rates and trends of mCPR and unmet need have remained low
in Nigeria: the average annual rate of change for mCPR by state is 0.5%
(0.4%,0.6%) from 2012-2017. Unmet need by age-parity demographic groups varied
significantly across Nigeria; parous women express much higher rates of unmet
need than nulliparous women. Our hierarchical Bayesian model incorporates data
from a diverse set of survey instruments, accounts for survey uncertainty,
leverages spatio-temporal smoothing, and produces probabilistic estimates with
uncertainty intervals. Our flexible modeling framework directly informs
programmatic decision-making by identifying age-parity-state subgroups with
large rates of unmet need, highlights conflicting trends across survey
instruments, and holistically interprets direct survey estimates.

18
The categories of this paper are: econ
28
The categories of this paper are: alg-geom
1
The categories of this paper are: cs
15
The categories of this paper are: nucl-ex
8
The categories of this paper are: hep-ex
23
The categories of this paper are: solv-int
11
The categories of this paper are: hep-lat
31
The categories of this paper are: ao-sci
21
The categories of this paper are: adap-org
13
The categories of this paper are: quant-ph
7
The categories of this paper are: hep-th
36
The categories of this paper are: cmp-lg
3
The categories of this paper are: physics
34
The categories of this paper are: chem-ph
25
The categories of this paper are: patt-sol
4
The categories of this paper are: cond-mat