Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: High ENSO-based 18-month lead Potential Predictability of Indian Summer
  Monsoon Rainfall   Scientific basis for long-lead seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon
rainfall (ISMR) critical for water resource and crop strategy planning is
lacking. Using a new predictor discovery method, here we show that the depth of
20 degree isotherm (D20) is least influenced by atmospheric noise and that the
18-month lead forecasts of ISMR have high potential skill (r = 0.86). The high
potential predictability is due to smaller initial errors associated with the
18-month lead initial conditions and their slow growth associated with the El
Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The potential skill arises not only from
the correlation between ISMR and large-scale slowly varying D20 but also
contributed significantly by that with the interannual small-scale D20
anomalies indicating a seminal role of the nonlinearity on the potential
predictability. It is, therefore, imperative that a nonlinear predictor
discovery as well as nonlinear prediction model is essential for realizing this
potential predictability.

17
The categories of this paper are: q-fin
32
The categories of this paper are: atom-ph
0
The categories of this paper are: hep-ph
30
The categories of this paper are: q-alg
16
The categories of this paper are: stat
25
The categories of this paper are: patt-sol
27
The categories of this paper are: comp-gas
34
The categories of this paper are: chem-ph
7
The categories of this paper are: hep-th
28
The categories of this paper are: alg-geom
31
The categories of this paper are: ao-sci
4
The categories of this paper are: cond-mat
29
The categories of this paper are: funct-an
10
The categories of this paper are: q-bio
6
The categories of this paper are: astro-ph
12
The categories of this paper are: nucl-th