Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Confidence in the dynamic spread of epidemics under biased sampling
  conditions   The interpretation of sampling data plays a crucial role in policy response
to the spread of a disease during an epidemic, such as the COVID-19 epidemic of
2020. However, this is a non-trivial endeavor due to the complexity of real
world conditions and limits to the availability of diagnostic tests, which
necessitate a bias in testing favoring symptomatic individuals. A thorough
understanding of sampling confidence and bias is necessary in order make
accurate conclusions. In this manuscript, we provide a stochastic model of
sampling for assessing confidence in disease metrics such as trend detection,
peak detection, and disease spread estimation. Our model simulates testing for
a disease in an epidemic with known dynamics, allowing us to use Monte-Carlo
sampling to assess metric confidence. This model can provide realistic
simulated data which can be used in the design and calibration of data analysis
and prediction methods. As an example, we use this method to show that trends
in the disease may be identified using under $10000$ biased samples each day,
and an estimate of disease spread can be made with additional $1000-2000$
unbiased samples each day. We also demonstrate that the model can be used to
assess more advanced metrics by finding the precision and recall of a strategy
for finding peaks in the dynamics.

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The categories of this paper are: q-alg
11
The categories of this paper are: hep-lat
15
The categories of this paper are: nucl-ex
35
The categories of this paper are: mtrl-th
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The categories of this paper are: solv-int
4
The categories of this paper are: cond-mat
28
The categories of this paper are: alg-geom
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The categories of this paper are: dg-ga
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The categories of this paper are: stat
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The categories of this paper are: eess
13
The categories of this paper are: quant-ph
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The categories of this paper are: patt-sol
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The categories of this paper are: chao-dyn
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The categories of this paper are: cs
32
The categories of this paper are: atom-ph
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The categories of this paper are: chem-ph