Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: A Time Series Approach To Player Churn and Conversion in Videogames   Players of a free-to-play game are divided into three main groups: non-paying
active users, paying active users and inactive users. A State Space time series
approach is then used to model the daily conversion rates between the different
groups, i.e., the probability of transitioning from one group to another. This
allows, not only for predictions on how these rates are to evolve, but also for
a deeper understanding of the impact that in-game planning and calendar effects
have. It is also used in this work for the detection of marketing and promotion
campaigns about which no information is available. In particular, two different
State Space formulations are considered and compared: an Autoregressive
Integrated Moving Average process and an Unobserved Components approach, in
both cases with a linear regression to explanatory variables. Both yield very
close estimations for covariate parameters, producing forecasts with similar
performances for most transition rates. While the Unobserved Components
approach is more robust and needs less human intervention in regards to model
definition, it produces significantly worse forecasts for non-paying user
abandonment probability. More critically, it also fails to detect a plausible
marketing and promotion campaign scenario.

19
The categories of this paper are: eess
17
The categories of this paper are: q-fin
28
The categories of this paper are: alg-geom
37
The categories of this paper are: supr-con
10
The categories of this paper are: q-bio
32
The categories of this paper are: atom-ph
14
The categories of this paper are: math-ph
35
The categories of this paper are: mtrl-th
31
The categories of this paper are: ao-sci
20
The categories of this paper are: acc-phys
22
The categories of this paper are: chao-dyn
26
The categories of this paper are: bayes-an
6
The categories of this paper are: astro-ph
34
The categories of this paper are: chem-ph
0
The categories of this paper are: hep-ph
24
The categories of this paper are: dg-ga