Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Computing the Death Rate of COVID-19   The Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of COVID-19 is difficult to estimate
because the number of infections is unknown and there is a lag between each
infection and the potentially subsequent death. We introduce a new approach for
estimating the IFR by first estimating the entire sequence of daily infections.
Unlike prior approaches, we incorporate existing data on the number of daily
COVID-19 tests into our estimation; knowing the test rates helps us estimate
the ratio between the number of cases and the number of infections. Also unlike
prior approaches, rather than determining a constant lag from studying a group
of patients, we treat the lag as a random variable, whose parameters we
determine empirically by fitting our infections sequence to the sequence of
deaths. Our approach allows us to narrow our estimation to smaller time
intervals in order to observe how the IFR changes over time. We analyze a 250
day period starting on March 1, 2020. We estimate that the IFR in the U.S.
decreases from a high of $0.68\%$ down to $0.24\%$ over the course of this time
period. We also provide IFR and lag estimates for Italy, Denmark, and the
Netherlands, all of which also exhibit decreasing IFRs but to different
degrees.

11
The categories of this paper are: hep-lat
30
The categories of this paper are: q-alg
17
The categories of this paper are: q-fin
16
The categories of this paper are: stat
23
The categories of this paper are: solv-int
9
The categories of this paper are: nlin
34
The categories of this paper are: chem-ph
2
The categories of this paper are: math
13
The categories of this paper are: quant-ph
3
The categories of this paper are: physics
27
The categories of this paper are: comp-gas
5
The categories of this paper are: gr-qc
19
The categories of this paper are: eess
25
The categories of this paper are: patt-sol
8
The categories of this paper are: hep-ex
12
The categories of this paper are: nucl-th