Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: A modelling framework for the analysis of the transmission of SARS-CoV2   Action plans against the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic have been implemented
around the globe in order to reduce transmission. The reproduction number has
been found to respond to public health interventions changing throughout the
pandemic waves. However, the actual global burden of SARS-CoV-2 remains unknown
due to severe under-ascertainment of cases. The use of reported deaths has been
pointed out as a more reliable source of information, likely less prone to
under-reporting. Given that daily deaths occur from past infections weighted by
their probability of death, one may infer the true number of infections
accounting for their age distribution, using the data on reported deaths. We
adopt this framework and assume that the transmission dynamics generating the
total number of underlying infections can be described by a continuous time
transmission model expressed through a system of non-linear ordinary
differential equations, where the transmission rate and consequently the
reproduction number are stochastic. We model the transmission rate as a
diffusion process, with distinct volatility phases for each pandemic wave,
allowing to reveal both the effect of control strategies and the changes in
individuals behavior. We study the case of 6 European countries and estimate
the time-varying reproduction number ($R_t$) as well as the true cumulative
number of infected individuals using Stan's No-U-Turn sampler variant of
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. As we estimate the true number of infections through
deaths, we offer a more accurate estimate of $R_t$. We also provide an estimate
of the daily reporting ratio and discuss the effects of changes in mobility and
testing to the inferred quantities.

36
The categories of this paper are: cmp-lg
6
The categories of this paper are: astro-ph
9
The categories of this paper are: nlin
23
The categories of this paper are: solv-int
37
The categories of this paper are: supr-con
19
The categories of this paper are: eess
35
The categories of this paper are: mtrl-th
27
The categories of this paper are: comp-gas
8
The categories of this paper are: hep-ex
34
The categories of this paper are: chem-ph
14
The categories of this paper are: math-ph
2
The categories of this paper are: math
15
The categories of this paper are: nucl-ex
21
The categories of this paper are: adap-org
12
The categories of this paper are: nucl-th
11
The categories of this paper are: hep-lat