Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Assessing coincident neutrino detections using population models   Several marginally significant associations between high-energy neutrinos and
potential astrophysical sources have been recently reported, but a conclusive
identification of these sources remains challenging. We explore the use of
Monte Carlo simulations to gain deeper insight into the implications of, in
particular, the IC170922A-TXS 0506+056 observation. Assuming a null model, we
find a 7.6% chance to mistakenly identify coincidences between flaring blazars
and neutrino alerts in 10-year surveys. We confirm that a blazar-neutrino
connection based on the ${\gamma}$-ray flux is required to find a low chance
coincidence probability and, therefore, a significant IC170922A-TXS 0506+056
association. We then assume this blazar-neutrino connection for the whole
population and find that the ratio of neutrino to ${\gamma}$-ray fluxes must be
$\lesssim 10^{-2}$ in order not to overproduce the total number of neutrino
alerts seen by IceCube. For the IC170922A-TXS 0506+056 association to make
sense, we must either accept this low flux ratio or suppose that only some rare
sub-population of blazars is capable of high-energy neutrino production. For
example, if we consider neutrino production only in blazar flares, we expect
the flux ratio of between $10^{-3}$ and $10^{-1}$ to be consistent with a
single coincident observation of a neutrino alert and flaring blazar. These
conclusions are robust with respect to the uncertainties in our modelling
assumptions.

5
The categories of this paper are: gr-qc
21
The categories of this paper are: adap-org
1
The categories of this paper are: cs
13
The categories of this paper are: quant-ph
29
The categories of this paper are: funct-an
10
The categories of this paper are: q-bio
25
The categories of this paper are: patt-sol
4
The categories of this paper are: cond-mat
36
The categories of this paper are: cmp-lg
24
The categories of this paper are: dg-ga
37
The categories of this paper are: supr-con
22
The categories of this paper are: chao-dyn
16
The categories of this paper are: stat
27
The categories of this paper are: comp-gas
3
The categories of this paper are: physics
18
The categories of this paper are: econ