Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Synergy in fertility forecasting: Improving forecast accuracy through
  model averaging   Accuracy in fertility forecasting has proved challenging and warrants renewed
attention. One way to improve accuracy is to combine the strengths of a set of
existing models through model averaging. The model-averaged forecast is derived
using empirical model weights that optimise forecast accuracy at each forecast
horizon based on historical data. We apply model averaging to fertility
forecasting for the first time, using data for 17 countries and six models.
Four model-averaging methods are compared: frequentist, Bayesian, model
confidence set, and equal weights. We compute individual-model and
model-averaged point and interval forecasts at horizons of one to 20 years. We
demonstrate gains in average accuracy of 4-23\% for point forecasts and 3-24\%
for interval forecasts, with greater gains from the frequentist and
equal-weights approaches at longer horizons. Data for England \& Wales are used
to illustrate model averaging in forecasting age-specific fertility to 2036.
The advantages and further potential of model averaging for fertility
forecasting are discussed. As the accuracy of model-averaged forecasts depends
on the accuracy of the individual models, there is ongoing need to develop
better models of fertility for use in forecasting and model averaging. We
conclude that model averaging holds considerable promise for the improvement of
fertility forecasting in a systematic way using existing models and warrants
further investigation.

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The categories of this paper are: atom-ph
1
The categories of this paper are: cs
5
The categories of this paper are: gr-qc
20
The categories of this paper are: acc-phys
17
The categories of this paper are: q-fin
13
The categories of this paper are: quant-ph
9
The categories of this paper are: nlin
4
The categories of this paper are: cond-mat
6
The categories of this paper are: astro-ph
0
The categories of this paper are: hep-ph
37
The categories of this paper are: supr-con
25
The categories of this paper are: patt-sol
19
The categories of this paper are: eess
28
The categories of this paper are: alg-geom
21
The categories of this paper are: adap-org
24
The categories of this paper are: dg-ga