Instruct: Identify the main category of Medrxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Using a household structured branching process to analyse contact tracing in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic We explore strategies of contact tracing, case isolation and quarantine of exposed contacts to control the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic using a branching process model with household structure. This structure reflects higher transmission risks among household members than among non-household members, and is also the level at which physical distancing policies have been applied. We explore implementation choices that make use of household structure, and investigate strategies including two-step tracing, backwards tracing, smartphone tracing and tracing upon symptom report rather than test results. The primary model outcome is the effect on the growth rate of the epidemic under contact tracing in combination with different levels of physical distancing, and we investigate epidemic extinction times to indicate the time period over which interventions must be sustained. We consider effects of non-uptake of isolation/quarantine, non-adherence, and declining recall of contacts over time. We find that compared to self-isolation of cases but no contact tracing, a household-based contact tracing strategy allows for some relaxation of physical distancing measures; however, it is unable to completely control the epidemic in the absence of other measures. Even assuming no imported cases and sustainment of moderate distancing, testing and tracing efforts, the time to bring the epidemic to extinction could be in the order of months to years.
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The categories of this paper are: systems
32
The categories of this paper are: rehabilitation
46
The categories of this paper are: therapeutics
18
The categories of this paper are: global
37
The categories of this paper are: aids
1
The categories of this paper are: sports
50
The categories of this paper are: medical
57
The categories of this paper are: primary
68
The categories of this paper are: surgery
20
The categories of this paper are: psychiatry
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The categories of this paper are: quality
15
The categories of this paper are: allergy
7
The categories of this paper are: emergency
22
The categories of this paper are: clinical
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The categories of this paper are: intensive
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The categories of this paper are: critical