Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Benchmarks for Solar Radiation Time Series Forecasting   With an ever-increasing share of intermittent renewable energy in the world's
energy mix,there is an increasing need for advanced solar power forecasting
models to optimize the operation and control of solar power plants. In order to
justify the need for more elaborate forecast modeling, one must compare the
performance of advanced models with naive reference methods. On this point, a
rigorous formalism using statistical tools, variational calculation and
quantification of noise in the measurement is studied and five naive reference
forecasting methods are considered, among which there is a newly proposed
approach called ARTU (a particular autoregressive model of order two). These
methods do not require any training phase nor demand any (or almost no)
historical data. Additionally, motivated by the well-known benefits of ensemble
forecasting, a combination of these models is considered, and then validated
using data from multiple sites with diverse climatological characteristics,
based on various error metrics, among which some are rarely used in the field
of solar energy. The most appropriate benchmarking method depends on the
salient features of the variable being forecast (e.g., seasonality, cyclicity,
or conditional heteoroscedasity) as well as the forecast horizon. Hence, to
ensure a fair benchmarking, forecasters should endeavor to discover the most
appropriate naive reference method for their setup by testing all available
options. Among the methods proposed in this paper, the combination and ARTU
statistically offer the best results for the proposed study conditions.

11
The categories of this paper are: hep-lat
29
The categories of this paper are: funct-an
0
The categories of this paper are: hep-ph
2
The categories of this paper are: math
12
The categories of this paper are: nucl-th
35
The categories of this paper are: mtrl-th
1
The categories of this paper are: cs
4
The categories of this paper are: cond-mat
36
The categories of this paper are: cmp-lg
32
The categories of this paper are: atom-ph
17
The categories of this paper are: q-fin
27
The categories of this paper are: comp-gas
33
The categories of this paper are: plasm-ph
8
The categories of this paper are: hep-ex
30
The categories of this paper are: q-alg
22
The categories of this paper are: chao-dyn