Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Resonance between contact patterns and disease progression shapes
  epidemic spread   The spread of a contagious disease clearly is affected by the contact
patterns of infected individuals. But it remains unclear how individual contact
patterns interact with the infectious and non-infectious stages through which a
disease progresses over time. Here, we investigate this interplay of contact
patterns and disease progression using real-world physical proximity data from
the Copenhagen Networks Study. We find from the data that the number of
encounters following a potential infection event varies significantly over time
-- with clear daily and weekly variations of encounter probability. These
variations can accelerate or slow down the spread of infectious diseases,
depending on how they are aligned with the infectious periods. Remarkably, the
resulting resonance strongly depends on the latent period, which, although
non-infectious and often neglected, is key to the degree of alignment of the
infectious period with the weekly modulation. We demonstrate that the resonance
effect can be reproduced by a generative process with a time-dependent
encounter rate that reflects the daily and weekly modulation found in the data.
Including this non-Markovian generative process into a well-mixed, mean-field
spreading model, we show that resonances between contact patterns and disease
progression can change the basic reproduction number considerably -- in our
case by up to 20%. Surprisingly, a change in latent period can thereby make
epidemic spread stronger even if the individual infectiousness is unaltered.

13
The categories of this paper are: quant-ph
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The categories of this paper are: nucl-th
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The categories of this paper are: hep-lat
6
The categories of this paper are: astro-ph
24
The categories of this paper are: dg-ga
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The categories of this paper are: math-ph
30
The categories of this paper are: q-alg
0
The categories of this paper are: hep-ph
34
The categories of this paper are: chem-ph
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The categories of this paper are: acc-phys
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The categories of this paper are: adap-org
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The categories of this paper are: bayes-an
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The categories of this paper are: stat
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The categories of this paper are: nlin
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The categories of this paper are: comp-gas
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The categories of this paper are: nucl-ex