Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Bayesian Heuristics for Group Decisions   We propose a model of inference and heuristic decision-making in groups that
is rooted in the Bayes rule but avoids the complexities of rational inference
in partially observed environments with incomplete information, which are
characteristic of group interactions. Our model is also consistent with a
dual-process psychological theory of thinking: the group members behave
rationally at the initiation of their interactions with each other (the slow
and deliberative mode); however, in the ensuing decision epochs, they rely on a
heuristic that replicates their experiences from the first stage (the fast
automatic mode). We specialize this model to a group decision scenario where
private observations are received at the beginning, and agents aim to take the
best action given the aggregate observations of all group members. We study the
implications of the information structure together with the properties of the
probability distributions which determine the structure of the so-called
"Bayesian heuristics" that the agents follow in our model. We also analyze the
group decision outcomes in two classes of linear action updates and log-linear
belief updates and show that many inefficiencies arise in group decisions as a
result of repeated interactions between individuals, leading to overconfident
beliefs as well as choice-shifts toward extremes. Nevertheless, balanced
regular structures demonstrate a measure of efficiency in terms of aggregating
the initial information of individuals. These results not only verify some
well-known insights about group decision-making but also complement these
insights by revealing additional mechanistic interpretations for the group
declension-process, as well as psychological and cognitive intuitions about the
group interaction model.

28
The categories of this paper are: alg-geom
19
The categories of this paper are: eess
6
The categories of this paper are: astro-ph
7
The categories of this paper are: hep-th
15
The categories of this paper are: nucl-ex
23
The categories of this paper are: solv-int
37
The categories of this paper are: supr-con
20
The categories of this paper are: acc-phys
31
The categories of this paper are: ao-sci
14
The categories of this paper are: math-ph
0
The categories of this paper are: hep-ph
30
The categories of this paper are: q-alg
25
The categories of this paper are: patt-sol
4
The categories of this paper are: cond-mat
17
The categories of this paper are: q-fin
10
The categories of this paper are: q-bio