Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Can Cascades be Predicted?   On many social networking web sites such as Facebook and Twitter, resharing
or reposting functionality allows users to share others' content with their own
friends or followers. As content is reshared from user to user, large cascades
of reshares can form. While a growing body of research has focused on analyzing
and characterizing such cascades, a recent, parallel line of work has argued
that the future trajectory of a cascade may be inherently unpredictable. In
this work, we develop a framework for addressing cascade prediction problems.
On a large sample of photo reshare cascades on Facebook, we find strong
performance in predicting whether a cascade will continue to grow in the
future. We find that the relative growth of a cascade becomes more predictable
as we observe more of its reshares, that temporal and structural features are
key predictors of cascade size, and that initially, breadth, rather than depth
in a cascade is a better indicator of larger cascades. This prediction
performance is robust in the sense that multiple distinct classes of features
all achieve similar performance. We also discover that temporal features are
predictive of a cascade's eventual shape. Observing independent cascades of the
same content, we find that while these cascades differ greatly in size, we are
still able to predict which ends up the largest.

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The categories of this paper are: funct-an
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The categories of this paper are: atom-ph
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The categories of this paper are: math-ph
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The categories of this paper are: q-alg
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The categories of this paper are: hep-ph
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The categories of this paper are: chao-dyn
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The categories of this paper are: supr-con
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The categories of this paper are: math
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The categories of this paper are: gr-qc
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The categories of this paper are: chem-ph
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The categories of this paper are: q-fin
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The categories of this paper are: eess
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The categories of this paper are: econ
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The categories of this paper are: hep-th
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The categories of this paper are: bayes-an
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The categories of this paper are: nlin