Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Towards Accurate Predictions and Causal 'What-if' Analyses for Planning
  and Policy-making: A Case Study in Emergency Medical Services Demand   Emergency Medical Services (EMS) demand load has become a considerable burden
for many government authorities, and EMS demand is often an early indicator for
stress in communities, a warning sign of emerging problems. In this paper, we
introduce Deep Planning and Policy Making Net (DeepPPMNet), a Long Short-Term
Memory network based, global forecasting and inference framework to forecast
the EMS demand, analyse causal relationships, and perform `what-if' analyses
for policy-making across multiple local government areas. Unless traditional
univariate forecasting techniques, the proposed method follows the global
forecasting methodology, where a model is trained across all the available EMS
demand time series to exploit the potential cross-series information available.
DeepPPMNet also uses seasonal decomposition techniques, incorporated in two
different training paradigms into the framework, to suit various
characteristics of the EMS related time series data. We then explore causal
relationships using the notion of Granger Causality, where the global
forecasting framework enables us to perform `what-if' analyses that could be
used for the national policy-making process. We empirically evaluate our
method, using a set of EMS datasets related to alcohol, drug use and self-harm
in Australia. The proposed framework is able to outperform many
state-of-the-art techniques and achieve competitive results in terms of
forecasting accuracy. We finally illustrate its use for policy-making in an
example regarding alcohol outlet licenses.

30
The categories of this paper are: q-alg
2
The categories of this paper are: math
27
The categories of this paper are: comp-gas
4
The categories of this paper are: cond-mat
3
The categories of this paper are: physics
29
The categories of this paper are: funct-an
23
The categories of this paper are: solv-int
37
The categories of this paper are: supr-con
7
The categories of this paper are: hep-th
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The categories of this paper are: mtrl-th
22
The categories of this paper are: chao-dyn
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The categories of this paper are: atom-ph
6
The categories of this paper are: astro-ph
14
The categories of this paper are: math-ph
25
The categories of this paper are: patt-sol
8
The categories of this paper are: hep-ex