Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Spatial Heterogeneity Can Lead to Substantial Local Variations in
  COVID-19 Timing and Severity   Standard epidemiological models for COVID-19 employ variants of compartment
(SIR) models at local scales, implicitly assuming spatially uniform local
mixing. Here, we examine the effect of employing more geographically detailed
diffusion models based on known spatial features of interpersonal networks,
most particularly the presence of a long-tailed but monotone decline in the
probability of interaction with distance, on disease diffusion. Based on
simulations of unrestricted COVID-19 diffusion in 19 U.S cities, we conclude
that heterogeneity in population distribution can have large impacts on local
pandemic timing and severity, even when aggregate behavior at larger scales
mirrors a classic SIR-like pattern. Impacts observed include severe local
outbreaks with long lag time relative to the aggregate infection curve, and the
presence of numerous areas whose disease trajectories correlate poorly with
those of neighboring areas. A simple catchment model for hospital demand
illustrates potential implications for health care utilization, with
substantial disparities in the timing and extremity of impacts even without
distancing interventions. Likewise, analysis of social exposure to others who
are morbid or deceased shows considerable variation in how the epidemic can
appear to individuals on the ground, potentially affecting risk assessment and
compliance with mitigation measures. These results demonstrate the potential
for spatial network structure to generate highly non-uniform diffusion behavior
even at the scale of cities, and suggest the importance of incorporating such
structure when designing models to inform healthcare planning, predict
community outcomes, or identify potential disparities.

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The categories of this paper are: hep-ph
28
The categories of this paper are: alg-geom
23
The categories of this paper are: solv-int
35
The categories of this paper are: mtrl-th
8
The categories of this paper are: hep-ex
14
The categories of this paper are: math-ph
27
The categories of this paper are: comp-gas
22
The categories of this paper are: chao-dyn
33
The categories of this paper are: plasm-ph
4
The categories of this paper are: cond-mat
17
The categories of this paper are: q-fin
32
The categories of this paper are: atom-ph
19
The categories of this paper are: eess
9
The categories of this paper are: nlin
29
The categories of this paper are: funct-an
24
The categories of this paper are: dg-ga