Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Forecasts of the trend in global-mean temperature to 2100 arising from
  the scenarios of first-difference CO2 and peak fossil fuel   Two future scenarios that are not explicitly in the range of scenarios (the
Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios) utilised by the IPCC. These two
scenarios are the emissions trend under peak fossil fuel (for example, Mohr et
al., 2015); and the climate sensitivity determinable from the relationship
between first-difference CO2 and temperature recently shown by Leggett and Ball
(2015). This paper provides forecasts of a global surface temperature
trajectory to 2100 resulting from the effect of these two scenarios. The
time-series models developed both displayed high statistical significance and
converged in their forecasts, so adding to the potential robustness of the
findings. Under the effect of the combination of the peak fossil fuel and
first-difference CO2 scenarios, we found that temperature is forecast to
continue to rise, but only gently, until around 2023 where it reaches a level
slightly higher than at present; and from then to display an also gentle steady
decrease. It is shown that this trajectory is markedly lower than that
generated by the IPCC business-as-usual level-of-CO2 (RCP8.5) model (Riahi et
al. 2011). These lower results are evidence that the climate problem may
require less future preventative action than is presently being considered
necessary. If so, it is stressed that the same evidence is support for the case
that the peak fossil fuel problem would require ameliorative action. This
globally required action is the same as it would have been for climate (as
embodied in the Paris Agreement on Climate Change of the 21st Conference of the
Parties of the UNFCCC in Paris adopted in 2015): the rapid transition to a
predominantly renewable global energy system.

2
The categories of this paper are: math
36
The categories of this paper are: cmp-lg
8
The categories of this paper are: hep-ex
22
The categories of this paper are: chao-dyn
33
The categories of this paper are: plasm-ph
0
The categories of this paper are: hep-ph
13
The categories of this paper are: quant-ph
7
The categories of this paper are: hep-th
9
The categories of this paper are: nlin
27
The categories of this paper are: comp-gas
14
The categories of this paper are: math-ph
34
The categories of this paper are: chem-ph
18
The categories of this paper are: econ
19
The categories of this paper are: eess
21
The categories of this paper are: adap-org
24
The categories of this paper are: dg-ga