Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Short-term Forecasting of Anomalous Load Using Rule-based Triple
  Seasonal Methods   Numerous methods have been proposed for forecasting load for normal days.
Modeling of anomalous load, however, has often been ignored in the research
literature. Occurring on special days, such as public holidays, anomalous load
conditions pose considerable modeling challenges due to their infrequent
occurrence and significant deviation from normal load. To overcome these
limitations, we adopt a rule-based approach, which allows incorporation of
prior expert knowledge of load profiles into the statistical model. We use
triple seasonal Holt-Winters-Taylor (HWT) exponential smoothing, triple
seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA), artificial neural networks
(ANNs), and triple seasonal intraweek singular value decomposition (SVD) based
exponential smoothing. These methods have been shown to be competitive for
modeling load for normal days. The methodological contribution of this paper is
to demonstrate how these methods can be adapted to model load for special days,
when used in conjunction with a rule-based approach. The proposed rule-based
method is able to model normal and anomalous load in a unified framework. Using
nine years of half-hourly load for Great Britain, we evaluate point forecasts,
for lead times from one half-hour up to a day ahead. A combination of two
rule-based methods generated the most accurate forecasts.

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The categories of this paper are: physics
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The categories of this paper are: solv-int
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The categories of this paper are: econ
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The categories of this paper are: alg-geom
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The categories of this paper are: dg-ga
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The categories of this paper are: nlin
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The categories of this paper are: adap-org
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The categories of this paper are: math
25
The categories of this paper are: patt-sol
37
The categories of this paper are: supr-con
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The categories of this paper are: funct-an
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The categories of this paper are: hep-lat
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The categories of this paper are: atom-ph
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The categories of this paper are: gr-qc
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The categories of this paper are: cond-mat
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The categories of this paper are: q-bio