Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Log-normal distribution based EMOS models for probabilistic wind speed
  forecasting   Ensembles of forecasts are obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather
forecasting models with different initial conditions and typically employed to
account for forecast uncertainties. However, biases and dispersion errors often
occur in forecast ensembles, they are usually under-dispersive and uncalibrated
and require statistical post-processing. We present an Ensemble Model Output
Statistics (EMOS) method for calibration of wind speed forecasts based on the
log-normal (LN) distribution, and we also show a regime-switching extension of
the model which combines the previously studied truncated normal (TN)
distribution with the LN.
  Both presented models are applied to wind speed forecasts of the eight-member
University of Washington mesoscale ensemble, of the fifty-member ECMWF ensemble
and of the eleven-member ALADIN-HUNEPS ensemble of the Hungarian Meteorological
Service, and their predictive performances are compared to those of the TN and
general extreme value (GEV) distribution based EMOS methods and to the TN-GEV
mixture model. The results indicate improved calibration of probabilistic and
accuracy of point forecasts in comparison to the raw ensemble and to
climatological forecasts. Further, the TN-LN mixture model outperforms the
traditional TN method and its predictive performance is able to keep up with
the models utilizing the GEV distribution without assigning mass to negative
values.

30
The categories of this paper are: q-alg
28
The categories of this paper are: alg-geom
0
The categories of this paper are: hep-ph
36
The categories of this paper are: cmp-lg
4
The categories of this paper are: cond-mat
24
The categories of this paper are: dg-ga
35
The categories of this paper are: mtrl-th
20
The categories of this paper are: acc-phys
29
The categories of this paper are: funct-an
26
The categories of this paper are: bayes-an
2
The categories of this paper are: math
9
The categories of this paper are: nlin
8
The categories of this paper are: hep-ex
7
The categories of this paper are: hep-th
33
The categories of this paper are: plasm-ph
31
The categories of this paper are: ao-sci