Instruct: Identify the main and secondary category of Arxiv papers based on the titles and abstracts
Query: Estimation and Inference for Synthetic Control Methods with Spillover
  Effects   The synthetic control method is often used in treatment effect estimation
with panel data where only a few units are treated and a small number of
post-treatment periods are available. Current estimation and inference
procedures for synthetic control methods do not allow for the existence of
spillover effects, which are plausible in many applications. In this paper, we
consider estimation and inference for synthetic control methods, allowing for
spillover effects. We propose estimators for both direct treatment effects and
spillover effects and show they are asymptotically unbiased. In addition, we
propose an inferential procedure and show it is asymptotically unbiased. Our
estimation and inference procedure applies to cases with multiple treated units
or periods, and where the underlying factor model is either stationary or
cointegrated. In simulations, we confirm that the presence of spillovers
renders current methods biased and have distorted sizes, whereas our methods
yield properly sized tests and retain reasonable power. We apply our method to
a classic empirical example that investigates the effect of California's
tobacco control program as in Abadie et al. (2010) and find evidence of
spillovers.

34
The categories of this paper are: chem-ph
11
The categories of this paper are: hep-lat
35
The categories of this paper are: mtrl-th
4
The categories of this paper are: cond-mat
8
The categories of this paper are: hep-ex
17
The categories of this paper are: q-fin
26
The categories of this paper are: bayes-an
32
The categories of this paper are: atom-ph
36
The categories of this paper are: cmp-lg
3
The categories of this paper are: physics
33
The categories of this paper are: plasm-ph
28
The categories of this paper are: alg-geom
2
The categories of this paper are: math
7
The categories of this paper are: hep-th
29
The categories of this paper are: funct-an
12
The categories of this paper are: nucl-th