Recession unlikely in next year: U.S. Chamber
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Problems in the U.S. subprime mortgage market are unlikely to push the U.S. economy into a recession over the next 12 months, the top economist for a leading U.S. business group said on Tuesday.
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If the U.S. economy tips into a recession, don't count on the technology business to be a safe haven, experts say. In fact, tech high-fliers like Google and Amazon may be particularly vulnerable to recession.
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U.S. growth will be tepid until mid-year but should get a one-two punch from tax rebates and lower interest rates to boost the economy, Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez predicted on Tuesday.
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The top executives of America's largest companies have grown more cautious about the economic outlook, according to a survey released on Monday by the Business Roundtable, but they still expect growth despite the turmoil in the world's credit markets and what it characterized as the "recession" in U.S. housing.
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The U.S. economy may be in recession,   based on Midwest manufacturing data, a report said on Thursday.
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A pair of Forrester Research analysts gave CIOs a passel of advice Thursday on how to deal with the possibility of a U.S. economic recession.&quot;We are not predicting a recession, but we think its important for CIOs to be proactive, to get their businesses ready in case there is a recession,&quot; said analyst Andrew Bartels, who conducted the teleconference with colleague Alex Cullen.Their recommendations boiled down to a number of main themes: The right ways to cut costs, to work closely with CFOs, and to plan not only for the lean times but for the good ones that inevitably follow.&quot;Get close to your CFO. You want to be arm in arm with that CFO,&quot; Bartels stressed.Forrester said there is a 55 percent probability the economy will remain essentially stabilized, due to factors including U.S. exports boosted by a weak dollar. The firm projects a 35 percent chance the country will enter a shallow recession, and a 10 percent chance it will fall into a deep one.The analysts said to watch for two key warning signs: Gas prices rising above $4 a gallon and two or more consecutive months of non-farm payroll employment.If they haven&#39;t already, CIOs should prepare now by reviewing their portfolios and identify which projects could be postponed, cut, or cancelled, he said.&quot;If you&#39;re running things well, adapting to recession is easier,&quot; Cullen noted.The tradeoffs vary depending on the type of cut, he said. For example, delaying hardware purchases could result in increased service outages.CIOs could also try other tactics, such as renegotiating vendor pacts or enacting hiring freezes, according to Forrester. Such measures could antagonize business partners and overburden staff, they said.But those types of risks are mild in comparison to that posed by cutting certain types of &quot;low-hanging fruit,&quot; such as time and support for research and development.&quot;These things look like they don&#39;t have immediate payback, so the question is &#39;Why are we doing them when times are tight?&#39;&quot; Cullen said.Likewise, it would be foolish to pull money and resources away from architectural strategy, he argued: &quot;You&#39;re going to be impeding your ability to take a long-term view of IT investments. When the tap opens up again people are going to be creating silos ... and you&#39;re going to spend your time unwinding these things.&quot;&quot;The worst thing you can do as a CIO is get so focused on cuts that when you come out of a recession, your department can&#39;t take the business where it wants to be,&quot; Bartels added.Outsourcing IT may also look like an appealing option, but the analysts issued a stern warning against it as a quick fix.Large-scale outsourcing deals take a long time to close, for one thing, Cullen argued: &quot;This is not near-term savings. This is not 2008 savings.&quot; But outsourcing of a particular IT function could make sense, he said.The hot trend of the past couple of years -- SaaS (software as a service) -- is not necessarily a fitting remedy during a recession, the analysts argued. While SaaS vendors relentlessly tout the cost savings their offerings can provide, it would cost a lot more to rip and replace legacy assets with SaaS products, the analysts said. However, they added, SaaS might offer lower upfront costs for a new technology.
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The US economy will grow in 2008, the White House says, shrugging off concerns that the US is facing a recession.
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The White House predicted the economy would escape a recession and unemployment would remain low this year, though it acknowledged growth had already slowed.
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There is a 40 percent chance that the United States economy will fall into recession next year, a senior analyst at Fitch Ratings said on Thursday.
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A "whiff" of stagflation will  linger about the U.S. economy through next year as growth slows  and inflation holds at a level higher than the Federal Reserve  would like, according to the latest UCLA Anderson Forecast  report.
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Most economists don't think the real-estate bust will lead to a recession.
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The U.S. economy will slow sharply this year and fall behind growth rates in most of the world, according to forecasts in a U.N. report released Wednesday.
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The Software &amp; Information Industry Association (SIIA) released a report on Thursday that painted a rosy picture of the sector&#39;s fortunes, one that stands in stark contrast to widespread fears of a recession in the U.S.
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A growing number of Americans expect a U.S. recession in the next year as the housing slump and steep food and energy prices sour sentiment, a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday shows.
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Forecasters said on average that there was a 47 percent chance the economy would shrink in the first quarter of 2008. Reading between the lines, recession is now unavoidable.
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Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan was quoted as seeing a "one-third probability" of recession in the United States this year, according to an interview with Bloomberg.
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The U.S. economy will expand at a  weak pace next year, setting the stage for lower interest  rates, according to a UCLA Anderson Forecast report released on  Thursday.