How did exit polls start avalanche of inaccuracy?
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John Kerry was not beating President Bush in Ohio and Florida and on the cusp of becoming the new leader of the free world - despite what confidential
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THIS past week will go down as one of the most shocking in the annals of modern American history - a once-in-a generation election, when the most powerful and prescient prognosticator known to man, got it all wrong.
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Highlights of exit poll data in the Maryland and Virginia presidential primaries Tuesday:
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Four years ago, blindly relying on exit polls that had flawlessly predicted presidential winners for decades, ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox News and MSNBC made &quot;Dewey defeats Truman&quot; look like a warm-up act for the real laughter.
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Following is a summary of recommendations The Register-Guard has made to voters for the Nov. 2 general election. The editors are fallible human beings who stand an average chance of being wrong.
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The jury is out on whether presidential nominee John Kerry got a 'bounce' in the polls after the Democratic National Convention. Some surveys suggest he did; in others, he did not.
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In the weeks leading up to November in the US, it&#8217;s abundantly clear that this is not &#8220;election season&#8221; but rather &#8220;polling season&#8221;; with the actual voting still some ways off, our pundits must resort to polls and surveys as an estimate of what the will of the people will be on Election Day. But just how accurate are the samples in those polls?
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Exit polling, long a key indicator of election trends, emerged on Wednesday as a big loser in the 2004 election after Internet pundits latched onto early data to mistakenly report a commanding lead for Democrat John Kerry in key states.
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WASHINGTON - Call it the law of unintended consequences. A new national backup system meant to ensure that millions of eligible voters are not mistakenly turned away from the polls this year, as happened in 2000, could wind up causing Election Day problems as infamous as Florida's hanging chads...
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In another indictment of the reliability of electronic voting systems, a report released Friday shows some Ohio tallies could be rendered inaccurate using tools as simple as a magnet.
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Debunking the falsehoods springing from this November's contest
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Awash in a sea of public opinion polls &#151; national and state, telephone and Internet, independent and partisan &#151; voters must be seeing double by now. And it's about to get much worse as the presidential campaign heads into the home stretch. Those trying to make sense of the swirl of numbers need a "poll survival guide."
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Hillary Clinton's victory in New  Hampshire's Democratic presidential nominating contest  confounded pollsters, who found themselves trying to explain  how opinion polls got it so wrong.
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More and more bloggers are waking to the news:  Lessig :   ...  "Bush has won the popular vote. And it would take a freak of nature to imagine the 220,000 provisional ballots would fall strongly enough to shift Ohio. He will win the College. He is our President - legitimately, and credibly."  "Our criticism of this administration must now focus narrowly and sharply: on the policies, not on the credibility of the man."  Joi Ito :  "As Larry says, "It's over. Let it go." Jon is saying, "Don't complain - organize!" Although the previous post about the wacky voting system is interesting, it's unlikely that any sort of recount or technicality will change the fact that today, the people of the Uni ...
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Some highlights of preliminary data from exit polls conducted for The Associated Press and television networks in the South Carolina Democratic primary on Saturday:
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News organizations promised Wednesday to look into why their Election Day exit polls showed an initial surge for John Kerry, but also blamed bloggers for spreading news that gave a misleading view of the presidential race.
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I spent much of this afternoon in a mandatory (for poll workers) four hour training class on the Hart InterCivic eSlate voting system, soon to be in use in elections in my home county. (Hart InterCivic is a privately held firm out of Houston, specializing in election equipment and in software products for county records offices). Contrary to my previous impression, the machines are not touch screen machines, although they share some similarities.  I went into the class skeptical; I have been a critic of what I percieve as an unseemly rush to adopt insecure electronic voting systems. I emerged guardedly optimistic; the systems appear, from what I can tell, to be reasonably secure against vote manipulation by people who are not part of the election staff, and they appear to provide approximately the same level of security against election office malfeasance that paper ballots do. At the end of the day, if the election staff wants to tamper, they can; but that was true with paper ballots as well. That risk can be mitigated by election office procedures intended to mitigate it; in San Mateo County's case, those procedures have in some important regards not yet been established, as I will discuss below.