the likelihood that a budget proposal will be approved is influenced by the amount of money that budget proposal requests the vice president is required to approve at least half of all budget proposals submitted having the last five budget proposals turned down affects the likelihood that the next budget proposal will be turned down the last five budget proposals' having been turned down guarantees that the next five budget proposals will be approved
Supervisor: Our next budget proposal will probably be approved, because normally about half of all budget proposals that the vice president considers are approved, and our last five budget proposals have all been turned down.
The supervisor's reasoning is flawed because it presumes, without giving warrant, that