Contrary to early discussions, global warming is not the only factor affecting the frequency and intensity of tropical storms. Tropical storms are especially likely to form over warm ocean surfaces. Global warming probably will not produce more frequent and intense tropical storms. Instabilities in wind flow will negate the effect of global warming on the formation of tropical storms.
Geographer: Because tropical storms require heat and moisture, they form especially over ocean surfaces of at least 26 degrees Celsius (79 degrees Fahrenheit), ocean temperatures that global warming would encourage. For this reason, many early discussions of global warming predicted that it would cause more frequent and intense tropical storms. But recent research shows that this prediction is unlikely to be borne out. Other factors, such as instabilities in wind flow, are likely to counteract global warming' s effects on tropical storm development.
Which one of the following most accurately expresses the conclusion drawn in the geographer's argument?