The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century rule, the analysis predicted that regional fragmentation was now a less-likely scenario for China, with the most probable result being the re-imposition of strict authoritarian rule. It is unknown at present what implications this has for the books further predictions, such as the Third World War and the US conflict with Mexico. The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century The Next 100 Years is a 2009 book by George Friedman. In the book, Friedman attempts to predict the major geopolitical events and trends of the 21st century. Friedman also speculates in the book on changes in technology
Slavery in the 21st century environments where enforcement is cheap, and less attractive in environments where the wage-rate is low and enforcement is expensive. Free workers also earn compensating differentials, whereby they are paid more for doing unpleasant work. Neither sustenance nor enforcement costs rise with the unpleasantness of the work, however, so slaves' costs do not rise by the same amount. As such, slaves are more attractive for unpleasant work, and less for pleasant work. Because the unpleasantness of the work is not internalised, being borne by the slave rather than the owner, it is a negative externality and leads to over-use of slaves