Mississippi River channel if flood-control structures are overtopped or heavily damaged during a severe flood. Failure of the Old River Control Structure, the Morganza Spillway, or nearby levees would likely re-route the main channel of the Mississippi through Louisiana's Atchafalaya Basin and down the Atchafalaya River to reach the Gulf of Mexico south of Morgan City in southern Louisiana. This route provides a more direct path to the Gulf of Mexico than the present Mississippi River channel through Baton Rouge and New Orleans. While the risk of such a diversion is present during any major flood event, such a change has so
2011 Mississippi River floods to open more gates on the spillway, the Corps studied four flooding scenarios, all of which assumed the Bonnet Carré Spillway near New Orleans would be concurrently operating at full capacity (100%). Following this analysis, which showed that extensive flooding was expected in the Atchafalaya Basin regardless of the choice made regarding the Morganza Spillway, the Corps decided to start the 2011 diversion by opening the spillway a bit less than described in scenario 1a (21%, not 25%) The Corps of Engineers subsequently released a map showing the estimated times it would take the flood waters to reach the various