Mississippi River channel if flood-control structures are overtopped or heavily damaged during a severe flood. Failure of the Old River Control Structure, the Morganza Spillway, or nearby levees would likely re-route the main channel of the Mississippi through Louisiana's Atchafalaya Basin and down the Atchafalaya River to reach the Gulf of Mexico south of Morgan City in southern Louisiana. This route provides a more direct path to the Gulf of Mexico than the present Mississippi River channel through Baton Rouge and New Orleans. While the risk of such a diversion is present during any major flood event, such a change has so
Morganza Spillway still open. All bays were closed on July 7, 2011. The Corps had estimated that it would take opening one-fourth of the spillway’s 125 bays — or 31 bays — to control the flow of the river through Baton Rouge in response to a forecast crest of anticipated on Tuesday, May 17, 2011, which must remain below of water per second through Baton Rouge to ensure the integrity of the levee system. Since Morganza never operated above , the flooding in the Atchafalaya Basin was considerably lower than had been anticipated during the initial estimates of . By May 29,