Daily Papers

Many natural language processing (NLP) tasks in English or general domains are widely available and are often used to evaluate pre-trained language models. In contrast, there are fewer tasks available for languages other than English and for the financial domain. In particular, tasks in Japanese and the financial domain are limited. We construct two large datasets using materials published by a Japanese central government agency. The datasets provide three Japanese financial NLP tasks, which include a 3-class and 12-class classification for categorizing sentences, as well as a 5-class classification task for sentiment analysis. Our datasets are designed to be comprehensive and up-to-date, leveraging an automatic update framework that ensures the latest task datasets are publicly available anytime.

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have significantly enhanced their ability to perform complex reasoning tasks, transitioning from fast and intuitive thinking (System 1) to slow and deep reasoning (System 2). While System 2 reasoning improves task accuracy, it often incurs substantial computational costs due to its slow thinking nature and inefficient or unnecessary reasoning behaviors. In contrast, System 1 reasoning is computationally efficient but leads to suboptimal performance. Consequently, it is critical to balance the trade-off between performance (benefits) and computational costs (budgets), giving rise to the concept of reasoning economy. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive analysis of reasoning economy in both the post-training and test-time inference stages of LLMs, encompassing i) the cause of reasoning inefficiency, ii) behavior analysis of different reasoning patterns, and iii) potential solutions to achieve reasoning economy. By offering actionable insights and highlighting open challenges, we aim to shed light on strategies for improving the reasoning economy of LLMs, thereby serving as a valuable resource for advancing research in this evolving area. We also provide a public repository to continually track developments in this fast-evolving field.

To advance the circular economy (CE), it is crucial to gain insights into the evolution of public attention, cognitive pathways of the masses concerning circular products, and to identify primary concerns. To achieve this, we collected data from diverse platforms, including Twitter, Reddit, and The Guardian, and utilised three topic models to analyse the data. Given the performance of topic modelling may vary depending on hyperparameter settings, this research proposed a novel framework that integrates twin (single and multi-objective) hyperparameter optimisation for the CE. We conducted systematic experiments to ensure that topic models are set with appropriate hyperparameters under different constraints, providing valuable insights into the correlations between CE and public attention. In summary, our optimised model reveals that public remains concerned about the economic impacts of sustainability and circular practices, particularly regarding recyclable materials and environmentally sustainable technologies. The analysis shows that the CE has attracted significant attention on The Guardian, especially in topics related to sustainable development and environmental protection technologies, while discussions are comparatively less active on Twitter. These insights highlight the need for policymakers to implement targeted education programs, create incentives for businesses to adopt CE principles, and enforce more stringent waste management policies alongside improved recycling processes.

To support the Low Altitude Economy (LAE), precise unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) localization in urban areas where global positioning system (GPS) signals are unavailable. Vision-based methods offer a viable alternative but face severe bandwidth, memory and processing constraints on lightweight UAVs. Inspired by mammalian spatial cognition, we propose a task-oriented communication framework, where UAVs equipped with multi-camera systems extract compact multi-view features and offload localization tasks to edge servers. We introduce the Orthogonally-constrained Variational Information Bottleneck encoder (O-VIB), which incorporates automatic relevance determination (ARD) to prune non-informative features while enforcing orthogonality to minimize redundancy. This enables efficient and accurate localization with minimal transmission cost. Extensive evaluation on a dedicated LAE UAV dataset shows that O-VIB achieves high-precision localization under stringent bandwidth budgets. Code and dataset will be made publicly available: github.com/fangzr/TOC-Edge-Aerial.

Volatility clustering is an important characteristic that has a significant effect on the behavior of stock markets. However, designing robust models for accurate prediction of future volatilities of stock prices is a very challenging research problem. We present several volatility models based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) framework for modeling the volatility of ten stocks listed in the national stock exchange (NSE) of India. The stocks are selected from the auto sector and the banking sector of the Indian economy, and they have a significant impact on the sectoral index of their respective sectors in the NSE. The historical stock price records from Jan 1, 2010, to Apr 30, 2021, are scraped from the Yahoo Finance website using the DataReader API of the Pandas module in the Python programming language. The GARCH modules are built and fine-tuned on the training data and then tested on the out-of-sample data to evaluate the performance of the models. The analysis of the results shows that asymmetric GARCH models yield more accurate forecasts on the future volatility of stocks.

About two million U.S. corporations and partnerships are linked to each other and human investors by about 15 million owner-subsidiary links. Comparable social networks such as corporate board memberships and socially-built systems such as the network of Internet links are "small worlds," meaning a network with a small diameter and link densities with a power-law distribution, but these properties had not yet been measured for the business entity network. This article shows that both inbound links and outbound links display a power-law distribution with a coefficient of concentration estimable to within a generally narrow confidence interval, overall, for subnetworks including only business entities, only for the great connected component of the network, and in subnetworks with edges associated with certain industries, for all years 2009-2021. In contrast to other networks with power-law distributed link densities, the network is mostly a tree, and has a diameter an order of magnitude larger than a small-world network with the same link distribution. The regularity of the power-law distribution indicates that its coefficient can be used as a new, well-defined macroeconomic metric for the concentration of capital flows in an economy. Economists might use it as a new measure of market concentration which is more comprehensive than measures based only on the few biggest firms. Comparing capital link concentrations across countries would facilitate modeling the relationship between business network characteristics and other macroeconomic indicators.

This paper examines the profound challenges that transformative advances in AI towards Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) will pose for economists and economic policymakers. I examine how the Age of AI will revolutionize the basic structure of our economies by diminishing the role of labor, leading to unprecedented productivity gains but raising concerns about job disruption, income distribution, and the value of education and human capital. I explore what roles may remain for labor post-AGI, and which production factors will grow in importance. The paper then identifies eight key challenges for economic policy in the Age of AI: (1) inequality and income distribution, (2) education and skill development, (3) social and political stability, (4) macroeconomic policy, (5) antitrust and market regulation, (6) intellectual property, (7) environmental implications, and (8) global AI governance. It concludes by emphasizing how economists can contribute to a better understanding of these challenges.

Training large-scale language models is increasingly critical in various domains, but it is hindered by frequent failures, leading to significant time and economic costs. Current failure recovery methods in cloud-based settings inadequately address the diverse and complex scenarios that arise, focusing narrowly on erasing downtime for individual tasks without considering the overall cost impact on a cluster. We introduce Unicron, a workload manager designed for efficient self-healing in large-scale language model training. Unicron optimizes the training process by minimizing failure-related costs across multiple concurrent tasks within a cluster. Its key features include in-band error detection for real-time error identification without extra overhead, a dynamic cost-aware plan generation mechanism for optimal reconfiguration, and an efficient transition strategy to reduce downtime during state changes. Deployed on a 128-GPU distributed cluster, Unicron demonstrates up to a 1.9x improvement in training efficiency over state-of-the-art methods, significantly reducing failure recovery costs and enhancing the reliability of large-scale language model training.

We present the LLM Economist, a novel framework that uses agent-based modeling to design and assess economic policies in strategic environments with hierarchical decision-making. At the lower level, bounded rational worker agents -- instantiated as persona-conditioned prompts sampled from U.S. Census-calibrated income and demographic statistics -- choose labor supply to maximize text-based utility functions learned in-context. At the upper level, a planner agent employs in-context reinforcement learning to propose piecewise-linear marginal tax schedules anchored to the current U.S. federal brackets. This construction endows economic simulacra with three capabilities requisite for credible fiscal experimentation: (i) optimization of heterogeneous utilities, (ii) principled generation of large, demographically realistic agent populations, and (iii) mechanism design -- the ultimate nudging problem -- expressed entirely in natural language. Experiments with populations of up to one hundred interacting agents show that the planner converges near Stackelberg equilibria that improve aggregate social welfare relative to Saez solutions, while a periodic, persona-level voting procedure furthers these gains under decentralized governance. These results demonstrate that large language model-based agents can jointly model, simulate, and govern complex economic systems, providing a tractable test bed for policy evaluation at the societal scale to help build better civilizations.

Multi-head Latent Attention (MLA) is an innovative architecture proposed by DeepSeek, designed to ensure efficient and economical inference by significantly compressing the Key-Value (KV) cache into a latent vector. Compared to MLA, standard LLMs employing Multi-Head Attention (MHA) and its variants such as Grouped-Query Attention (GQA) exhibit significant cost disadvantages. Enabling well-trained LLMs (e.g., Llama) to rapidly adapt to MLA without pre-training from scratch is both meaningful and challenging. This paper proposes the first data-efficient fine-tuning method for transitioning from MHA to MLA (MHA2MLA), which includes two key components: for partial-RoPE, we remove RoPE from dimensions of queries and keys that contribute less to the attention scores, for low-rank approximation, we introduce joint SVD approximations based on the pre-trained parameters of keys and values. These carefully designed strategies enable MHA2MLA to recover performance using only a small fraction (0.3% to 0.6%) of the data, significantly reducing inference costs while seamlessly integrating with compression techniques such as KV cache quantization. For example, the KV cache size of Llama2-7B is reduced by 92.19%, with only a 0.5% drop in LongBench performance.

Climate-economic modeling under uncertainty presents significant computational challenges that may limit policymakers' ability to address climate change effectively. This paper explores neural network-based approaches for solving high-dimensional optimal control problems arising from models that incorporate ambiguity aversion in climate mitigation decisions. We develop a continuous-time endogenous-growth economic model that accounts for multiple mitigation pathways, including emission-free capital and carbon intensity reductions. Given the inherent complexity and high dimensionality of these models, traditional numerical methods become computationally intractable. We benchmark several neural network architectures against finite-difference generated solutions, evaluating their ability to capture the dynamic interactions between uncertainty, technology transitions, and optimal climate policy. Our findings demonstrate that appropriate neural architecture selection significantly impacts both solution accuracy and computational efficiency when modeling climate-economic systems under uncertainty. These methodological advances enable more sophisticated modeling of climate policy decisions, allowing for better representation of technology transitions and uncertainty-critical elements for developing effective mitigation strategies in the face of climate change.

Despite widespread speculation about artificial intelligence's impact on the future of work, we lack systematic empirical evidence about how these systems are actually being used for different tasks. Here, we present a novel framework for measuring AI usage patterns across the economy. We leverage a recent privacy-preserving system to analyze over four million Claude.ai conversations through the lens of tasks and occupations in the U.S. Department of Labor's O*NET Database. Our analysis reveals that AI usage primarily concentrates in software development and writing tasks, which together account for nearly half of all total usage. However, usage of AI extends more broadly across the economy, with approximately 36% of occupations using AI for at least a quarter of their associated tasks. We also analyze how AI is being used for tasks, finding 57% of usage suggests augmentation of human capabilities (e.g., learning or iterating on an output) while 43% suggests automation (e.g., fulfilling a request with minimal human involvement). While our data and methods face important limitations and only paint a picture of AI usage on a single platform, they provide an automated, granular approach for tracking AI's evolving role in the economy and identifying leading indicators of future impact as these technologies continue to advance.

Large Language Models (LLMs) show significant potential in economic and strategic interactions, where communication via natural language is often prevalent. This raises key questions: Do LLMs behave rationally? Can they mimic human behavior? Do they tend to reach an efficient and fair outcome? What is the role of natural language in the strategic interaction? How do characteristics of the economic environment influence these dynamics? These questions become crucial concerning the economic and societal implications of integrating LLM-based agents into real-world data-driven systems, such as online retail platforms and recommender systems. While the ML community has been exploring the potential of LLMs in such multi-agent setups, varying assumptions, design choices and evaluation criteria across studies make it difficult to draw robust and meaningful conclusions. To address this, we introduce a benchmark for standardizing research on two-player, sequential, language-based games. Inspired by the economic literature, we define three base families of games with consistent parameterization, degrees of freedom and economic measures to evaluate agents' performance (self-gain), as well as the game outcome (efficiency and fairness). We develop an open-source framework for interaction simulation and analysis, and utilize it to collect a dataset of LLM vs. LLM interactions across numerous game configurations and an additional dataset of human vs. LLM interactions. Through extensive experimentation, we demonstrate how our framework and dataset can be used to: (i) compare the behavior of LLM-based agents to human players in various economic contexts; (ii) evaluate agents in both individual and collective performance measures; and (iii) quantify the effect of the economic characteristics of the environments on the behavior of agents.

Directly training Large Language Models (LLMs) for Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) remains challenging due to intricate reward modeling, dynamic agent interactions, and demanding generalization requirements. This paper explores whether post-training techniques, specifically Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) and Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR), can effectively generalize to multi-agent scenarios. We use economic reasoning as a testbed, leveraging its strong foundations in mathematics and game theory, its demand for structured analytical reasoning, and its relevance to real-world applications such as market design, resource allocation, and policy analysis. We introduce Recon (Reasoning like an ECONomist), a 7B-parameter open-source LLM post-trained on a hand-curated dataset of 2,100 high-quality economic reasoning problems. Comprehensive evaluation on economic reasoning benchmarks and multi-agent games reveals clear improvements in structured reasoning and economic rationality. These results underscore the promise of domain-aligned post-training for enhancing reasoning and agent alignment, shedding light on the roles of SFT and RL in shaping model behavior. Code is available at https://github.com/MasterZhou1/Recon .

The widespread adoption of AI systems in the economy hinges on their ability to generate economic value that outweighs their inference costs. Evaluating this tradeoff requires metrics that account for both performance and costs. We propose a framework grounded in production theory for evaluating language models by combining accuracy and inference cost. We introduce "cost-of-pass", the expected monetary cost of generating a correct solution. We then define the "frontier cost-of-pass" as the minimum cost-of-pass achievable across available models or the "human-expert, using the approximate cost of hiring an expert. Our analysis reveals distinct economic insights. First, lightweight models are most cost-effective for basic quantitative tasks, large models for knowledge-intensive ones, and reasoning models for complex quantitative problems, despite higher per-token costs. Second, tracking this frontier cost-of-pass over the past year reveals significant progress, particularly for complex quantitative tasks where the cost has roughly halved every few months. Third, to trace key innovations driving this progress, we examine counterfactual frontiers: estimates of cost-efficiency without specific model classes. We find that innovations in lightweight, large, and reasoning models have been essential for pushing the frontier in basic quantitative, knowledge-intensive, and complex quantitative tasks, respectively. Finally, we assess the cost-reductions afforded by common inference-time techniques like majority voting and self-refinement, finding that their marginal accuracy gains rarely justify their costs. Our findings underscore that complementary model-level innovations are the primary drivers of cost-efficiency, and our economic framework provides a principled tool for measuring this progress and guiding deployment.

This work introduces EE-Tuning, a lightweight and economical solution to training/tuning early-exit large language models (LLMs). In contrast to the common approach of full-parameter pre-training, EE-Tuning augments any pre-trained (and possibly fine-tuned) standard LLM with additional early-exit layers that are tuned in a parameter-efficient manner, which requires significantly less computational resources and training data. Our implementation of EE-Tuning achieves outstanding training efficiency via extensive performance optimizations, as well as scalability due to its full compatibility with 3D parallelism. Results of systematic experiments validate the efficacy of EE-Tuning, confirming that effective early-exit LLM inference can be achieved with a limited training budget. In hope of making early-exit LLMs accessible to the community, we release the source code of our implementation of EE-Tuning at https://github.com/pan-x-c/EE-LLM.

The sparsely-activated models have achieved great success in natural language processing through large-scale parameters and relatively low computational cost, and gradually become a feasible technique for training and implementing extremely large models. Due to the limit of communication cost, activating multiple experts is hardly affordable during training and inference. Therefore, previous work usually activate just one expert at a time to alleviate additional communication cost. Such routing mechanism limits the upper bound of model performance. In this paper, we first investigate a phenomenon that increasing the number of activated experts can boost the model performance with higher sparse ratio. To increase the number of activated experts without an increase in computational cost, we propose SAM (Switch and Mixture) routing, an efficient hierarchical routing mechanism that activates multiple experts in a same device (GPU). Our methods shed light on the training of extremely large sparse models and experiments prove that our models can achieve significant performance gain with great efficiency improvement.

Can AI effectively perform complex econometric analysis traditionally requiring human expertise? This paper evaluates an agentic AI's capability to master econometrics, focusing on empirical analysis performance. We develop an ``Econometrics AI Agent'' built on the open-source MetaGPT framework. This agent exhibits outstanding performance in: (1) planning econometric tasks strategically, (2) generating and executing code, (3) employing error-based reflection for improved robustness, and (4) allowing iterative refinement through multi-round conversations. We construct two datasets from academic coursework materials and published research papers to evaluate performance against real-world challenges. Comparative testing shows our domain-specialized agent significantly outperforms both benchmark large language models (LLMs) and general-purpose AI agents. This work establishes a testbed for exploring AI's impact on social science research and enables cost-effective integration of domain expertise, making advanced econometric methods accessible to users with minimal coding expertise. Furthermore, our agent enhances research reproducibility and offers promising pedagogical applications for econometrics teaching.

Unfair treatment and discrimination are critical ethical concerns in AI systems, particularly as their adoption expands across diverse domains. Addressing these challenges, the recent introduction of the EU AI Act establishes a unified legal framework to ensure legal certainty for AI innovation and investment while safeguarding public interests, such as health, safety, fundamental rights, democracy, and the rule of law (Recital 8). The Act encourages stakeholders to initiate dialogue on existing AI fairness notions to address discriminatory outcomes of AI systems. However, these notions often overlook the critical role of Socio-Economic Status (SES), inadvertently perpetuating biases that favour the economically advantaged. This is concerning, given that principles of equalization advocate for equalizing resources or opportunities to mitigate disadvantages beyond an individual's control. While provisions for discrimination are laid down in the AI Act, specialized directions should be broadened, particularly in addressing economic disparities perpetuated by AI systems. In this work, we explore the limitations of popular AI fairness notions using a real-world dataset (Adult), highlighting their inability to address SES-driven disparities. To fill this gap, we propose a novel fairness notion, Socio-Economic Parity (SEP), which incorporates SES and promotes positive actions for underprivileged groups while accounting for factors within an individual's control, such as working hours, which can serve as a proxy for effort. We define a corresponding fairness measure and optimize a model constrained by SEP to demonstrate practical utility. Our results show the effectiveness of SEP in mitigating SES-driven biases. By analyzing the AI Act alongside our method, we lay a foundation for aligning AI fairness with SES factors while ensuring legal compliance.

Transformer-based large language models (LLMs) exhibit impressive performance in generative tasks but introduce significant challenges in real-world serving due to inefficient use of the expensive, computation-optimized accelerators. This mismatch arises from the autoregressive nature of LLMs, where the generation phase comprises operators with varying resource demands. Specifically, the attention operator is memory-intensive, exhibiting a memory access pattern that clashes with the strengths of modern accelerators, especially as context length increases. To enhance the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of LLM serving, we introduce the concept of attention offloading. This approach leverages a collection of cheap, memory-optimized devices for the attention operator while still utilizing high-end accelerators for other parts of the model. This heterogeneous setup ensures that each component is tailored to its specific workload, maximizing overall performance and cost efficiency. Our comprehensive analysis and experiments confirm the viability of splitting the attention computation over multiple devices. Also, the communication bandwidth required between heterogeneous devices proves to be manageable with prevalent networking technologies. To further validate our theory, we develop Lamina, an LLM inference system that incorporates attention offloading. Experimental results indicate that Lamina can provide 1.48x-12.1x higher estimated throughput per dollar than homogeneous solutions.

This study examines the effects of de-globalization trends on international trade networks and their role in improving forecasts for economic growth. Using section-level trade data from nearly 200 countries from 2010 to 2022, we identify significant shifts in the network topology driven by rising trade policy uncertainty. Our analysis highlights key global players through centrality rankings, with the United States, China, and Germany maintaining consistent dominance. Using a horse race of supervised regressors, we find that network topology descriptors evaluated from section-specific trade networks substantially enhance the quality of a country's GDP growth forecast. We also find that non-linear models, such as Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM, outperform traditional linear models used in the economics literature. Using SHAP values to interpret these non-linear model's predictions, we find that about half of most important features originate from the network descriptors, underscoring their vital role in refining forecasts. Moreover, this study emphasizes the significance of recent economic performance, population growth, and the primary sector's influence in shaping economic growth predictions, offering novel insights into the intricacies of economic growth forecasting.

Various parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) techniques have been proposed to enable computationally efficient fine-tuning while maintaining model performance. However, existing PEFT methods are still limited by the growing number of trainable parameters with the rapid deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs). To address this challenge, we present LoRETTA, an ultra-parameter-efficient framework that significantly reduces trainable parameters through tensor-train decomposition. Specifically, we propose two methods, named {LoRETTA}_{adp} and {LoRETTA}_{rep}. The former employs tensorized adapters, offering a high-performance yet lightweight approach for the fine-tuning of LLMs. The latter emphasizes fine-tuning via weight parameterization with a set of small tensor factors. LoRETTA achieves comparable or better performance than most widely used PEFT methods with up to 100times fewer parameters on the LLaMA-2-7B models. Furthermore, empirical results demonstrate that the proposed method effectively improves training efficiency, enjoys better multi-task learning performance, and enhances the anti-overfitting capability. Plug-and-play codes built upon the Huggingface framework and PEFT library will be released.

Human choice prediction in economic contexts is crucial for applications in marketing, finance, public policy, and more. This task, however, is often constrained by the difficulties in acquiring human choice data. With most experimental economics studies focusing on simple choice settings, the AI community has explored whether LLMs can substitute for humans in these predictions and examined more complex experimental economics settings. However, a key question remains: can LLMs generate training data for human choice prediction? We explore this in language-based persuasion games, a complex economic setting involving natural language in strategic interactions. Our experiments show that models trained on LLM-generated data can effectively predict human behavior in these games and even outperform models trained on actual human data.

Congestion is a common failure mode of markets, where consumers compete inefficiently on the same subset of goods (e.g., chasing the same small set of properties on a vacation rental platform). The typical economic story is that prices decongest by balancing supply and demand. But in modern online marketplaces, prices are typically set in a decentralized way by sellers, and the information about items is inevitably partial. The power of a platform is limited to controlling representations -- the subset of information about items presented by default to users. This motivates the present study of decongestion by representation, where a platform seeks to learn representations that reduce congestion and thus improve social welfare. The technical challenge is twofold: relying only on revealed preferences from the choices of consumers, rather than true preferences; and the combinatorial problem associated with representations that determine the features to reveal in the default view. We tackle both challenges by proposing a differentiable proxy of welfare that can be trained end-to-end on consumer choice data. We develop sufficient conditions for when decongestion promotes welfare, and present the results of extensive experiments on both synthetic and real data that demonstrate the utility of our approach.

Predicting market movements based on the sentiment of news media has a long tradition in data analysis. With advances in natural language processing, transformer architectures have emerged that enable contextually aware sentiment classification. Nevertheless, current methods built for the general financial market such as FinBERT cannot distinguish asset-specific value-driving factors. This paper addresses this shortcoming by presenting a method that identifies and classifies events that impact supply and demand in the crude oil markets within a large corpus of relevant news headlines. We then introduce CrudeBERT, a new sentiment analysis model that draws upon these events to contextualize and fine-tune FinBERT, thereby yielding improved sentiment classifications for headlines related to the crude oil futures market. An extensive evaluation demonstrates that CrudeBERT outperforms proprietary and open-source solutions in the domain of crude oil.

AI and reinforcement learning (RL) have improved many areas, but are not yet widely adopted in economic policy design, mechanism design, or economics at large. At the same time, current economic methodology is limited by a lack of counterfactual data, simplistic behavioral models, and limited opportunities to experiment with policies and evaluate behavioral responses. Here we show that machine-learning-based economic simulation is a powerful policy and mechanism design framework to overcome these limitations. The AI Economist is a two-level, deep RL framework that trains both agents and a social planner who co-adapt, providing a tractable solution to the highly unstable and novel two-level RL challenge. From a simple specification of an economy, we learn rational agent behaviors that adapt to learned planner policies and vice versa. We demonstrate the efficacy of the AI Economist on the problem of optimal taxation. In simple one-step economies, the AI Economist recovers the optimal tax policy of economic theory. In complex, dynamic economies, the AI Economist substantially improves both utilitarian social welfare and the trade-off between equality and productivity over baselines. It does so despite emergent tax-gaming strategies, while accounting for agent interactions and behavioral change more accurately than economic theory. These results demonstrate for the first time that two-level, deep RL can be used for understanding and as a complement to theory for economic design, unlocking a new computational learning-based approach to understanding economic policy.

AI Alignment is often presented as an interaction between a single designer and an artificial agent in which the designer attempts to ensure the agent's behavior is consistent with its purpose, and risks arise solely because of conflicts caused by inadvertent misalignment between the utility function intended by the designer and the resulting internal utility function of the agent. With the advent of agents instantiated with large-language models (LLMs), which are typically pre-trained, we argue this does not capture the essential aspects of AI safety because in the real world there is not a one-to-one correspondence between designer and agent, and the many agents, both artificial and human, have heterogeneous values. Therefore, there is an economic aspect to AI safety and the principal-agent problem is likely to arise. In a principal-agent problem conflict arises because of information asymmetry together with inherent misalignment between the utility of the agent and its principal, and this inherent misalignment cannot be overcome by coercing the agent into adopting a desired utility function through training. We argue the assumptions underlying principal-agent problems are crucial to capturing the essence of safety problems involving pre-trained AI models in real-world situations. Taking an empirical approach to AI safety, we investigate how GPT models respond in principal-agent conflicts. We find that agents based on both GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 override their principal's objectives in a simple online shopping task, showing clear evidence of principal-agent conflict. Surprisingly, the earlier GPT-3.5 model exhibits more nuanced behaviour in response to changes in information asymmetry, whereas the later GPT-4 model is more rigid in adhering to its prior alignment. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating principles from economics into the alignment process.

We introduce EconWebArena, a benchmark for evaluating autonomous agents on complex, multimodal economic tasks in realistic web environments. The benchmark comprises 360 curated tasks from 82 authoritative websites spanning domains such as macroeconomics, labor, finance, trade, and public policy. Each task challenges agents to navigate live websites, interpret structured and visual content, interact with real interfaces, and extract precise, time-sensitive data through multi-step workflows. We construct the benchmark by prompting multiple large language models (LLMs) to generate candidate tasks, followed by rigorous human curation to ensure clarity, feasibility, and source reliability. Unlike prior work, EconWebArena emphasizes fidelity to authoritative data sources and the need for grounded web-based economic reasoning. We evaluate a diverse set of state-of-the-art multimodal LLMs as web agents, analyze failure cases, and conduct ablation studies to assess the impact of visual grounding, plan-based reasoning, and interaction design. Our results reveal substantial performance gaps and highlight persistent challenges in grounding, navigation, and multimodal understanding, positioning EconWebArena as a rigorous testbed for economic web intelligence.

Large language models (LLMs) cannot be trusted for economic forecasts during periods covered by their training data. We provide the first systematic evaluation of LLMs' memorization of economic and financial data, including major economic indicators, news headlines, stock returns, and conference calls. Our findings show that LLMs can perfectly recall the exact numerical values of key economic variables from before their knowledge cutoff dates. This recall appears to be randomly distributed across different dates and data types. This selective perfect memory creates a fundamental issue -- when testing forecasting capabilities before their knowledge cutoff dates, we cannot distinguish whether LLMs are forecasting or simply accessing memorized data. Explicit instructions to respect historical data boundaries fail to prevent LLMs from achieving recall-level accuracy in forecasting tasks. Further, LLMs seem exceptional at reconstructing masked entities from minimal contextual clues, suggesting that masking provides inadequate protection against motivated reasoning. Our findings raise concerns about using LLMs to forecast historical data or backtest trading strategies, as their apparent predictive success may merely reflect memorization rather than genuine economic insight. Any application where future knowledge would change LLMs' outputs can be affected by memorization. In contrast, consistent with the absence of data contamination, LLMs cannot recall data after their knowledge cutoff date.

Newly-developed large language models (LLM) -- because of how they are trained and designed -- are implicit computational models of humans -- a homo silicus. These models can be used the same way economists use homo economicus: they can be given endowments, information, preferences, and so on and then their behavior can be explored in scenarios via simulation. I demonstrate this approach using OpenAI's GPT3 with experiments derived from Charness and Rabin (2002), Kahneman, Knetsch and Thaler (1986) and Samuelson and Zeckhauser (1988). The findings are qualitatively similar to the original results, but it is also trivially easy to try variations that offer fresh insights. Departing from the traditional laboratory paradigm, I also create a hiring scenario where an employer faces applicants that differ in experience and wage ask and then analyze how a minimum wage affects realized wages and the extent of labor-labor substitution.

We present DeepSeek-V2, a strong Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) language model characterized by economical training and efficient inference. It comprises 236B total parameters, of which 21B are activated for each token, and supports a context length of 128K tokens. DeepSeek-V2 adopts innovative architectures including Multi-head Latent Attention (MLA) and DeepSeekMoE. MLA guarantees efficient inference through significantly compressing the Key-Value (KV) cache into a latent vector, while DeepSeekMoE enables training strong models at an economical cost through sparse computation. Compared with DeepSeek 67B, DeepSeek-V2 achieves significantly stronger performance, and meanwhile saves 42.5% of training costs, reduces the KV cache by 93.3%, and boosts the maximum generation throughput to 5.76 times. We pretrain DeepSeek-V2 on a high-quality and multi-source corpus consisting of 8.1T tokens, and further perform Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) and Reinforcement Learning (RL) to fully unlock its potential. Evaluation results show that, even with only 21B activated parameters, DeepSeek-V2 and its chat versions still achieve top-tier performance among open-source models.

The use of robo-readers to analyze news texts is an emerging technology trend in computational finance. In recent research, a substantial effort has been invested to develop sophisticated financial polarity-lexicons that can be used to investigate how financial sentiments relate to future company performance. However, based on experience from other fields, where sentiment analysis is commonly applied, it is well-known that the overall semantic orientation of a sentence may differ from the prior polarity of individual words. The objective of this article is to investigate how semantic orientations can be better detected in financial and economic news by accommodating the overall phrase-structure information and domain-specific use of language. Our three main contributions are: (1) establishment of a human-annotated finance phrase-bank, which can be used as benchmark for training and evaluating alternative models; (2) presentation of a technique to enhance financial lexicons with attributes that help to identify expected direction of events that affect overall sentiment; (3) development of a linearized phrase-structure model for detecting contextual semantic orientations in financial and economic news texts. The relevance of the newly added lexicon features and the benefit of using the proposed learning-algorithm are demonstrated in a comparative study against previously used general sentiment models as well as the popular word frequency models used in recent financial studies. The proposed framework is parsimonious and avoids the explosion in feature-space caused by the use of conventional n-gram features.

In this paper, we introduce EconLogicQA, a rigorous benchmark designed to assess the sequential reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) within the intricate realms of economics, business, and supply chain management. Diverging from traditional benchmarks that predict subsequent events individually, EconLogicQA poses a more challenging task: it requires models to discern and sequence multiple interconnected events, capturing the complexity of economic logics. EconLogicQA comprises an array of multi-event scenarios derived from economic articles, which necessitate an insightful understanding of both temporal and logical event relationships. Through comprehensive evaluations, we exhibit that EconLogicQA effectively gauges a LLM's proficiency in navigating the sequential complexities inherent in economic contexts. We provide a detailed description of EconLogicQA dataset and shows the outcomes from evaluating the benchmark across various leading-edge LLMs, thereby offering a thorough perspective on their sequential reasoning potential in economic contexts. Our benchmark dataset is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/yinzhu-quan/econ_logic_qa.

In an era where language models are increasingly integrated into decision-making and communication, understanding the biases within Large Language Models (LLMs) becomes imperative, especially when these models are applied in the economic and political domains. This work investigates the impact of fine-tuning and data selection on economic and political biases in LLM. We explore the methodological aspects of biasing LLMs towards specific ideologies, mindful of the biases that arise from their extensive training on diverse datasets. Our approach, distinct from earlier efforts that either focus on smaller models or entail resource-intensive pre-training, employs Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) techniques. These techniques allow for the alignment of LLMs with targeted ideologies by modifying a small subset of parameters. We introduce a systematic method for dataset selection, annotation, and instruction tuning, and we assess its effectiveness through both quantitative and qualitative evaluations. Our work analyzes the potential of embedding specific biases into LLMs and contributes to the dialogue on the ethical application of AI, highlighting the importance of deploying AI in a manner that aligns with societal values.

Sharp, multidimensional changepoints-abrupt shifts in a regression surface whose locations and magnitudes are unknown-arise in settings as varied as gene-expression profiling, financial covariance breaks, climate-regime detection, and urban socioeconomic mapping. Despite their prevalence, there are no current approaches that jointly estimate the location and size of the discontinuity set in a one-shot approach with statistical guarantees. We therefore introduce Free Discontinuity Regression (FDR), a fully nonparametric estimator that simultaneously (i) smooths a regression surface, (ii) segments it into contiguous regions, and (iii) provably recovers the precise locations and sizes of its jumps. By extending a convex relaxation of the Mumford-Shah functional to random spatial sampling and correlated noise, FDR overcomes the fixed-grid and i.i.d. noise assumptions of classical image-segmentation approaches, thus enabling its application to real-world data of any dimension. This yields the first identification and uniform consistency results for multivariate jump surfaces: under mild SBV regularity, the estimated function, its discontinuity set, and all jump sizes converge to their true population counterparts. Hyperparameters are selected automatically from the data using Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimate, and large-scale simulations up to three dimensions validate the theoretical results and demonstrate good finite-sample performance. Applying FDR to an internet shutdown in India reveals a 25-35% reduction in economic activity around the estimated shutdown boundaries-much larger than previous estimates. By unifying smoothing, segmentation, and effect-size recovery in a general statistical setting, FDR turns free-discontinuity ideas into a practical tool with formal guarantees for modern multivariate data.

Artificial Intelligence (AI), particularly large language models (LLMs), holds the potential to bridge language and information gaps, which can benefit the economies of developing nations. However, our analysis of FLORES-200, FLORES+, Ethnologue, and World Development Indicators data reveals that these benefits largely favor English speakers. Speakers of languages in low-income and lower-middle-income countries face higher costs when using OpenAI's GPT models via APIs because of how the system processes the input -- tokenization. Around 1.5 billion people, speaking languages primarily from lower-middle-income countries, could incur costs that are 4 to 6 times higher than those faced by English speakers. Disparities in LLM performance are significant, and tokenization in models priced per token amplifies inequalities in access, cost, and utility. Moreover, using the quality of translation tasks as a proxy measure, we show that LLMs perform poorly in low-resource languages, presenting a ``double jeopardy" of higher costs and poor performance for these users. We also discuss the direct impact of fragmentation in tokenizing low-resource languages on climate. This underscores the need for fairer algorithm development to benefit all linguistic groups.

For a long-time, researchers have been developing a reliable and accurate predictive model for stock price prediction. According to the literature, if predictive models are correctly designed and refined, they can painstakingly and faithfully estimate future stock values. This paper demonstrates a set of time series, econometric, and various learning-based models for stock price prediction. The data of Infosys, ICICI, and SUN PHARMA from the period of January 2004 to December 2019 was used here for training and testing the models to know which model performs best in which sector. One time series model (Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing), one econometric model (ARIMA), two machine Learning models (Random Forest and MARS), and two deep learning-based models (simple RNN and LSTM) have been included in this paper. MARS has been proved to be the best performing machine learning model, while LSTM has proved to be the best performing deep learning model. But overall, for all three sectors - IT (on Infosys data), Banking (on ICICI data), and Health (on SUN PHARMA data), MARS has proved to be the best performing model in sales forecasting.

In economy, markets are denoted as efficient when it is impossible to systematically generate profits which outperform the average. In the past years, the concept has been tested in other domains such as the growing sports betting market. Surprisingly, despite its large size and its level of maturity, sports betting shows traits of inefficiency. The anomalies indicate the existence of strategies which shift betting from a game of chance towards a game of skill. This article shows an example for an inefficiency detected in the German soccer betting TOTO 13er Wette, which is operated by state-run lottery agencies. Gamblers have to guess the outcome (win, draw, loss) of 13 soccer matches listed on a lottery tip. Applying stochastic methods, a recipe is presented to determine hit rates for single match outcomes. More important, the recipe provides the number of lottery tips required to achieve a specific number of strikes (number of correct match forecasts per lottery tip) for any given level of safety. An approximation is derived to cope with large numbers in hypergeometric distributions, valid under certain constraints. Overall, the strategy does lead to returns exceeding the aggregated lottery fees, resulting in moderate, but consistent profits. It is briefly discussed if lessions learned from soccer betting can be transferred back to financial markets, because gamblers and retail investors face similar challenges and opportunities.