Daily Papers

Risk-averse reinforcement learning finds application in various high-stakes fields. Unlike classical reinforcement learning, which aims to maximize expected returns, risk-averse agents choose policies that minimize risk, occasionally sacrificing expected value. These preferences can be framed through utility theory. We focus on the specific case of the exponential utility function, where we can derive the Bellman equations and employ various reinforcement learning algorithms with few modifications. However, these methods suffer from numerical instability due to the need for exponent computation throughout the process. To address this, we introduce a numerically stable and mathematically sound loss function based on the Itakura-Saito divergence for learning state-value and action-value functions. We evaluate our proposed loss function against established alternatives, both theoretically and empirically. In the experimental section, we explore multiple financial scenarios, some with known analytical solutions, and show that our loss function outperforms the alternatives.

The recent exponential growth of Large Language Models (LLMs) has relied on GPU-based systems. However, CPUs are emerging as a flexible and lower-cost alternative, especially when targeting inference and reasoning workloads. RISC-V is rapidly gaining traction in this area, given its open and vendor-neutral ISA. However, the RISC-V hardware for LLM workloads and the corresponding software ecosystem are not fully mature and streamlined, given the requirement of domain-specific tuning. This paper aims at filling this gap, focusing on optimizing LLM inference on the Sophon SG2042, the first commercially available many-core RISC-V CPU with vector processing capabilities. On two recent state-of-the-art LLMs optimized for reasoning, DeepSeek R1 Distill Llama 8B and DeepSeek R1 Distill QWEN 14B, we achieve 4.32/2.29 token/s for token generation and 6.54/3.68 token/s for prompt processing, with a speed up of up 2.9x/3.0x compared to our baseline.

Through a systematic review of academic literature, we propose a taxonomy of systemic risks associated with artificial intelligence (AI), in particular general-purpose AI. Following the EU AI Act's definition, we consider systemic risks as large-scale threats that can affect entire societies or economies. Starting with an initial pool of 1,781 documents, we analyzed 86 selected papers to identify 13 categories of systemic risks and 50 contributing sources. Our findings reveal a complex landscape of potential threats, ranging from environmental harm and structural discrimination to governance failures and loss of control. Key sources of systemic risk emerge from knowledge gaps, challenges in recognizing harm, and the unpredictable trajectory of AI development. The taxonomy provides a snapshot of current academic literature on systemic risks. This paper contributes to AI safety research by providing a structured groundwork for understanding and addressing the potential large-scale negative societal impacts of general-purpose AI. The taxonomy can inform policymakers in risk prioritization and regulatory development.

With the rapidly increasing capabilities and adoption of code agents for AI-assisted coding, safety concerns, such as generating or executing risky code, have become significant barriers to the real-world deployment of these agents. To provide comprehensive and practical evaluations on the safety of code agents, we propose RedCode, a benchmark for risky code execution and generation: (1) RedCode-Exec provides challenging prompts that could lead to risky code execution, aiming to evaluate code agents' ability to recognize and handle unsafe code. We provide a total of 4,050 risky test cases in Python and Bash tasks with diverse input formats including code snippets and natural text. They covers 25 types of critical vulnerabilities spanning 8 domains (e.g., websites, file systems). We provide Docker environments and design corresponding evaluation metrics to assess their execution results. (2) RedCode-Gen provides 160 prompts with function signatures and docstrings as input to assess whether code agents will follow instructions to generate harmful code or software. Our empirical findings, derived from evaluating three agent frameworks based on 19 LLMs, provide insights into code agents' vulnerabilities. For instance, evaluations on RedCode-Exec show that agents are more likely to reject executing risky operations on the operating system, but are less likely to reject executing technically buggy code, indicating high risks. Risky operations described in natural text lead to a lower rejection rate than those in code format. Additionally, evaluations on RedCode-Gen show that more capable base models and agents with stronger overall coding abilities, such as GPT4, tend to produce more sophisticated and effective harmful software. Our findings highlight the need for stringent safety evaluations for diverse code agents. Our dataset and code are available at https://github.com/AI-secure/RedCode.

This paper presents RISC, an open-source Python package data generator (https://github.com/GRAAL-Research/risc). RISC generates look-alike automobile insurance contracts based on the Quebec regulatory insurance form in French and English. Insurance contracts are 90 to 100 pages long and use complex legal and insurance-specific vocabulary for a layperson. Hence, they are a much more complex class of documents than those in traditional NLP corpora. Therefore, we introduce RISCBAC, a Realistic Insurance Synthetic Bilingual Automobile Contract dataset based on the mandatory Quebec car insurance contract. The dataset comprises 10,000 French and English unannotated insurance contracts. RISCBAC enables NLP research for unsupervised automatic summarisation, question answering, text simplification, machine translation and more. Moreover, it can be further automatically annotated as a dataset for supervised tasks such as NER

This paper introduces RiskCards, a framework for structured assessment and documentation of risks associated with an application of language models. As with all language, text generated by language models can be harmful, or used to bring about harm. Automating language generation adds both an element of scale and also more subtle or emergent undesirable tendencies to the generated text. Prior work establishes a wide variety of language model harms to many different actors: existing taxonomies identify categories of harms posed by language models; benchmarks establish automated tests of these harms; and documentation standards for models, tasks and datasets encourage transparent reporting. However, there is no risk-centric framework for documenting the complexity of a landscape in which some risks are shared across models and contexts, while others are specific, and where certain conditions may be required for risks to manifest as harms. RiskCards address this methodological gap by providing a generic framework for assessing the use of a given language model in a given scenario. Each RiskCard makes clear the routes for the risk to manifest harm, their placement in harm taxonomies, and example prompt-output pairs. While RiskCards are designed to be open-source, dynamic and participatory, we present a "starter set" of RiskCards taken from a broad literature survey, each of which details a concrete risk presentation. Language model RiskCards initiate a community knowledge base which permits the mapping of risks and harms to a specific model or its application scenario, ultimately contributing to a better, safer and shared understanding of the risk landscape.

Deep neural networks are being used increasingly to automate data analysis and decision making, yet their decision-making process is largely unclear and is difficult to explain to the end users. In this paper, we address the problem of Explainable AI for deep neural networks that take images as input and output a class probability. We propose an approach called RISE that generates an importance map indicating how salient each pixel is for the model's prediction. In contrast to white-box approaches that estimate pixel importance using gradients or other internal network state, RISE works on black-box models. It estimates importance empirically by probing the model with randomly masked versions of the input image and obtaining the corresponding outputs. We compare our approach to state-of-the-art importance extraction methods using both an automatic deletion/insertion metric and a pointing metric based on human-annotated object segments. Extensive experiments on several benchmark datasets show that our approach matches or exceeds the performance of other methods, including white-box approaches. Project page: http://cs-people.bu.edu/vpetsiuk/rise/

When fine-tuning pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) to align with human values and intentions, maximizing the estimated reward can lead to superior performance, but it also introduces potential risks due to deviations from the reference model's intended behavior. Most existing methods typically introduce KL divergence to constrain deviations between the trained model and the reference model; however, this may not be sufficient in certain applications that require tight risk control. In this paper, we introduce Risk-aware Direct Preference Optimization (Ra-DPO), a novel approach that incorporates risk-awareness by employing a class of nested risk measures. This approach formulates a constrained risk-aware advantage function maximization problem and then converts the Bradley-Terry model into a token-level representation. The objective function maximizes the likelihood of the policy while suppressing the deviation between a trained model and the reference model using a sequential risk ratio, thereby enhancing the model's risk-awareness. Experimental results across three open-source datasets: IMDb Dataset, Anthropic HH Dataset, and AlpacaEval, demonstrate the proposed method's superior performance in balancing alignment performance and model drift. Our code is opensourced at https://github.com/zlj123-max/Ra-DPO.

We propose a reinforcement learning (RL) framework under a broad class of risk objectives, characterized by convex scoring functions. This class covers many common risk measures, such as variance, Expected Shortfall, entropic Value-at-Risk, and mean-risk utility. To resolve the time-inconsistency issue, we consider an augmented state space and an auxiliary variable and recast the problem as a two-state optimization problem. We propose a customized Actor-Critic algorithm and establish some theoretical approximation guarantees. A key theoretical contribution is that our results do not require the Markov decision process to be continuous. Additionally, we propose an auxiliary variable sampling method inspired by the alternating minimization algorithm, which is convergent under certain conditions. We validate our approach in simulation experiments with a financial application in statistical arbitrage trading, demonstrating the effectiveness of the algorithm.

Risk management in finance involves recognizing, evaluating, and addressing financial risks to maintain stability and ensure regulatory compliance. Extracting relevant insights from extensive regulatory documents is a complex challenge requiring advanced retrieval and language models. This paper introduces RiskData, a dataset specifically curated for finetuning embedding models in risk management, and RiskEmbed, a finetuned embedding model designed to improve retrieval accuracy in financial question-answering systems. The dataset is derived from 94 regulatory guidelines published by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) from 1991 to 2024. We finetune a state-of-the-art sentence BERT embedding model to enhance domain-specific retrieval performance typically for Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems. Experimental results demonstrate that RiskEmbed significantly outperforms general-purpose and financial embedding models, achieving substantial improvements in ranking metrics. By open-sourcing both the dataset and the model, we provide a valuable resource for financial institutions and researchers aiming to develop more accurate and efficient risk management AI solutions.

This work aims to implement Long Short-Term Memory mixture density networks (LSTM-MDNs) for Value-at-Risk forecasting and compare their performance with established models (historical simulation, CMM, and GARCH) using a defined backtesting procedure. The focus was on the neural network's ability to capture volatility clustering and its real-world applicability. Three architectures were tested: a 2-component mixture density network, a regularized 2-component model (Arimond et al., 2020), and a 3-component mixture model, the latter being tested for the first time in Value-at-Risk forecasting. Backtesting was performed on three stock indices (FTSE 100, S&P 500, EURO STOXX 50) over two distinct two-year periods (2017-2018 as a calm period, 2021-2022 as turbulent). Model performance was assessed through unconditional coverage and independence assumption tests. The neural network's ability to handle volatility clustering was validated via correlation analysis and graphical evaluation. Results show limited success for the neural network approach. LSTM-MDNs performed poorly for 2017/2018 but outperformed benchmark models in 2021/2022. The LSTM mechanism allowed the neural network to capture volatility clustering similarly to GARCH models. However, several issues were identified: the need for proper model initialization and reliance on large datasets for effective learning. The findings suggest that while LSTM-MDNs provide adequate risk forecasts, further research and adjustments are necessary for stable performance.

This paper investigates the application of Feature-Enriched Generative Adversarial Networks (FE-GAN) in financial risk management, with a focus on improving the estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). FE-GAN enhances existing GANs architectures by incorporating an additional input sequence derived from preceding data to improve model performance. Two specialized GANs models, the Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network (WGAN) and the Tail Generative Adversarial Network (Tail-GAN), were evaluated under the FE-GAN framework. The results demonstrate that FE-GAN significantly outperforms traditional architectures in both VaR and ES estimation. Tail-GAN, leveraging its task-specific loss function, consistently outperforms WGAN in ES estimation, while both models exhibit similar performance in VaR estimation. Despite these promising results, the study acknowledges limitations, including reliance on highly correlated temporal data and restricted applicability to other domains. Future research directions include exploring alternative input generation methods, dynamic forecasting models, and advanced neural network architectures to further enhance GANs-based financial risk estimation.

In this paper, we propose a novel end-to-end relightable neural inverse rendering system that achieves high-quality reconstruction of geometry and material properties, thus enabling high-quality relighting. The cornerstone of our method is a two-stage approach for learning a better factorization of scene parameters. In the first stage, we develop a reflection-aware radiance field using a neural signed distance field (SDF) as the geometry representation and deploy an MLP (multilayer perceptron) to estimate indirect illumination. In the second stage, we introduce a novel information-sharing network structure to jointly learn the radiance field and the physically based factorization of the scene. For the physically based factorization, to reduce the noise caused by Monte Carlo sampling, we apply a split-sum approximation with a simplified Disney BRDF and cube mipmap as the environment light representation. In the relighting phase, to enhance the quality of indirect illumination, we propose a second split-sum algorithm to trace secondary rays under the split-sum rendering framework. Furthermore, there is no dataset or protocol available to quantitatively evaluate the inverse rendering performance for glossy objects. To assess the quality of material reconstruction and relighting, we have created a new dataset with ground truth BRDF parameters and relighting results. Our experiments demonstrate that our algorithm achieves state-of-the-art performance in inverse rendering and relighting, with particularly strong results in the reconstruction of highly reflective objects.

Despite the progress on 3D point cloud deep learning, most prior works focus on learning features that are invariant to translation and point permutation, and very limited efforts have been devoted for rotation invariant property. Several recent studies achieve rotation invariance at the cost of lower accuracies. In this work, we close this gap by proposing a novel yet effective rotation invariant architecture for 3D point cloud classification and segmentation. Instead of traditional pointwise operations, we construct local triangle surfaces to capture more detailed surface structure, based on which we can extract highly expressive rotation invariant surface properties which are then integrated into an attention-augmented convolution operator named RISurConv to generate refined attention features via self-attention layers. Based on RISurConv we build an effective neural network for 3D point cloud analysis that is invariant to arbitrary rotations while maintaining high accuracy. We verify the performance on various benchmarks with supreme results obtained surpassing the previous state-of-the-art by a large margin. We achieve an overall accuracy of 96.0% (+4.7%) on ModelNet40, 93.1% (+12.8%) on ScanObjectNN, and class accuracies of 91.5% (+3.6%), 82.7% (+5.1%), and 78.5% (+9.2%) on the three categories of the FG3D dataset for the fine-grained classification task. Additionally, we achieve 81.5% (+1.0%) mIoU on ShapeNet for the segmentation task. Code is available here: https://github.com/cszyzhang/RISurConv

The intricate relationship between electrons and the crystal lattice is a linchpin in condensed matter, traditionally described by the Fr\"ohlich model encompassing the lowest-order lattice-electron coupling. Recently developed quantum acoustics, emphasizing the wave nature of lattice vibrations, has enabled the exploration of previously uncharted territories of electron-lattice interaction not accessible with conventional tools such as perturbation theory. In this context, our agenda here is two-fold. First, we showcase the application of machine learning methods to categorize various interaction regimes within the subtle interplay of electrons and the dynamical lattice landscape. Second, we shed light on a nebulous region of electron dynamics identified by the machine learning approach and then attribute it to transient localization, where strong lattice vibrations result in a momentary Anderson prison for electronic wavepackets, which are later released by the evolution of the lattice. Overall, our research illuminates the spectrum of dynamics within the Fr\"ohlich model, such as transient localization, which has been suggested as a pivotal factor contributing to the mysteries surrounding strange metals. Furthermore, this paves the way for utilizing time-dependent perspectives in machine learning techniques for designing materials with tailored electron-lattice properties.

Applications of Generative AI (Gen AI) are expected to revolutionize a number of different areas, ranging from science & medicine to education. The potential for these seismic changes has triggered a lively debate about the potential risks of the technology, and resulted in calls for tighter regulation, in particular from some of the major tech companies who are leading in AI development. This regulation is likely to put at risk the budding field of open-source generative AI. Using a three-stage framework for Gen AI development (near, mid and long-term), we analyze the risks and opportunities of open-source generative AI models with similar capabilities to the ones currently available (near to mid-term) and with greater capabilities (long-term). We argue that, overall, the benefits of open-source Gen AI outweigh its risks. As such, we encourage the open sourcing of models, training and evaluation data, and provide a set of recommendations and best practices for managing risks associated with open-source generative AI.

Accelerated stochastic gradient descent (ASGD) is a workhorse in deep learning and often achieves better generalization performance than SGD. However, existing optimization theory can only explain the faster convergence of ASGD, but cannot explain its better generalization. In this paper, we study the generalization of ASGD for overparameterized linear regression, which is possibly the simplest setting of learning with overparameterization. We establish an instance-dependent excess risk bound for ASGD within each eigen-subspace of the data covariance matrix. Our analysis shows that (i) ASGD outperforms SGD in the subspace of small eigenvalues, exhibiting a faster rate of exponential decay for bias error, while in the subspace of large eigenvalues, its bias error decays slower than SGD; and (ii) the variance error of ASGD is always larger than that of SGD. Our result suggests that ASGD can outperform SGD when the difference between the initialization and the true weight vector is mostly confined to the subspace of small eigenvalues. Additionally, when our analysis is specialized to linear regression in the strongly convex setting, it yields a tighter bound for bias error than the best-known result.

Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RL) has become a popular tool to control the risk of uncertain outcomes and ensure reliable performance in various sequential decision-making problems. While policy gradient methods have been developed for risk-sensitive RL, it remains unclear if these methods enjoy the same global convergence guarantees as in the risk-neutral case. In this paper, we consider a class of dynamic time-consistent risk measures, called Expected Conditional Risk Measures (ECRMs), and derive policy gradient updates for ECRM-based objective functions. Under both constrained direct parameterization and unconstrained softmax parameterization, we provide global convergence and iteration complexities of the corresponding risk-averse policy gradient algorithms. We further test risk-averse variants of REINFORCE and actor-critic algorithms to demonstrate the efficacy of our method and the importance of risk control.

Evaluating automatically-generated text summaries is a challenging task. While there have been many interesting approaches, they still fall short of human evaluations. We present RISE, a new approach for evaluating summaries by leveraging techniques from information retrieval. RISE is first trained as a retrieval task using a dual-encoder retrieval setup, and can then be subsequently utilized for evaluating a generated summary given an input document, without gold reference summaries. RISE is especially well suited when working on new datasets where one may not have reference summaries available for evaluation. We conduct comprehensive experiments on the SummEval benchmark (Fabbri et al., 2021) and the results show that RISE has higher correlation with human evaluations compared to many past approaches to summarization evaluation. Furthermore, RISE also demonstrates data-efficiency and generalizability across languages.

Risk parity, also known as equal risk contribution, has recently gained increasing attention as a portfolio allocation method. However, solving portfolio weights must resort to numerical methods as the analytic solution is not available. This study improves two existing iterative methods: the cyclical coordinate descent (CCD) and Newton methods. We enhance the CCD method by simplifying the formulation using a correlation matrix and imposing an additional rescaling step. We also suggest an improved initial guess inspired by the CCD method for the Newton method. Numerical experiments show that the improved CCD method performs the best and is approximately three times faster than the original CCD method, saving more than 40% of the iterations.

AI is undergoing a paradigm shift with the rise of models (e.g., BERT, DALL-E, GPT-3) that are trained on broad data at scale and are adaptable to a wide range of downstream tasks. We call these models foundation models to underscore their critically central yet incomplete character. This report provides a thorough account of the opportunities and risks of foundation models, ranging from their capabilities (e.g., language, vision, robotics, reasoning, human interaction) and technical principles(e.g., model architectures, training procedures, data, systems, security, evaluation, theory) to their applications (e.g., law, healthcare, education) and societal impact (e.g., inequity, misuse, economic and environmental impact, legal and ethical considerations). Though foundation models are based on standard deep learning and transfer learning, their scale results in new emergent capabilities,and their effectiveness across so many tasks incentivizes homogenization. Homogenization provides powerful leverage but demands caution, as the defects of the foundation model are inherited by all the adapted models downstream. Despite the impending widespread deployment of foundation models, we currently lack a clear understanding of how they work, when they fail, and what they are even capable of due to their emergent properties. To tackle these questions, we believe much of the critical research on foundation models will require deep interdisciplinary collaboration commensurate with their fundamentally sociotechnical nature.

Risk scores are simple classification models that let users make quick risk predictions by adding and subtracting a few small numbers. These models are widely used in medicine and criminal justice, but are difficult to learn from data because they need to be calibrated, sparse, use small integer coefficients, and obey application-specific operational constraints. In this paper, we present a new machine learning approach to learn risk scores. We formulate the risk score problem as a mixed integer nonlinear program, and present a cutting plane algorithm for non-convex settings to efficiently recover its optimal solution. We improve our algorithm with specialized techniques to generate feasible solutions, narrow the optimality gap, and reduce data-related computation. Our approach can fit risk scores in a way that scales linearly in the number of samples, provides a certificate of optimality, and obeys real-world constraints without parameter tuning or post-processing. We benchmark the performance benefits of this approach through an extensive set of numerical experiments, comparing to risk scores built using heuristic approaches. We also discuss its practical benefits through a real-world application where we build a customized risk score for ICU seizure prediction in collaboration with the Massachusetts General Hospital.

Foundation models are increasingly becoming better autonomous programmers, raising the prospect that they could also automate dangerous offensive cyber-operations. Current frontier model audits probe the cybersecurity risks of such agents, but most fail to account for the degrees of freedom available to adversaries in the real world. In particular, with strong verifiers and financial incentives, agents for offensive cybersecurity are amenable to iterative improvement by would-be adversaries. We argue that assessments should take into account an expanded threat model in the context of cybersecurity, emphasizing the varying degrees of freedom that an adversary may possess in stateful and non-stateful environments within a fixed compute budget. We show that even with a relatively small compute budget (8 H100 GPU Hours in our study), adversaries can improve an agent's cybersecurity capability on InterCode CTF by more than 40\% relative to the baseline -- without any external assistance. These results highlight the need to evaluate agents' cybersecurity risk in a dynamic manner, painting a more representative picture of risk.

For a long time, humanity has pursued artificial intelligence (AI) equivalent to or surpassing the human level, with AI agents considered a promising vehicle for this pursuit. AI agents are artificial entities that sense their environment, make decisions, and take actions. Many efforts have been made to develop intelligent AI agents since the mid-20th century. However, these efforts have mainly focused on advancement in algorithms or training strategies to enhance specific capabilities or performance on particular tasks. Actually, what the community lacks is a sufficiently general and powerful model to serve as a starting point for designing AI agents that can adapt to diverse scenarios. Due to the versatile and remarkable capabilities they demonstrate, large language models (LLMs) are regarded as potential sparks for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), offering hope for building general AI agents. Many research efforts have leveraged LLMs as the foundation to build AI agents and have achieved significant progress. We start by tracing the concept of agents from its philosophical origins to its development in AI, and explain why LLMs are suitable foundations for AI agents. Building upon this, we present a conceptual framework for LLM-based agents, comprising three main components: brain, perception, and action, and the framework can be tailored to suit different applications. Subsequently, we explore the extensive applications of LLM-based agents in three aspects: single-agent scenarios, multi-agent scenarios, and human-agent cooperation. Following this, we delve into agent societies, exploring the behavior and personality of LLM-based agents, the social phenomena that emerge when they form societies, and the insights they offer for human society. Finally, we discuss a range of key topics and open problems within the field.

This research presents a framework for quantitative risk management in volatile markets, specifically focusing on expectile-based methodologies applied to the FTSE 100 index. Traditional risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) have demonstrated significant limitations during periods of market stress, as evidenced during the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent volatile periods. This study develops an advanced expectile-based framework that addresses the shortcomings of conventional quantile-based approaches by providing greater sensitivity to tail losses and improved stability in extreme market conditions. The research employs a dataset spanning two decades of FTSE 100 returns, incorporating periods of high volatility, market crashes, and recovery phases. Our methodology introduces novel mathematical formulations for expectile regression models, enhanced threshold determination techniques using time series analysis, and robust backtesting procedures. The empirical results demonstrate that expectile-based Value-at-Risk (EVaR) consistently outperforms traditional VaR measures across various confidence levels and market conditions. The framework exhibits superior performance during volatile periods, with reduced model risk and enhanced predictive accuracy. Furthermore, the study establishes practical implementation guidelines for financial institutions and provides evidence-based recommendations for regulatory compliance and portfolio management. The findings contribute significantly to the literature on financial risk management and offer practical tools for practitioners dealing with volatile market environments.

This paper introduces a novel approach to financial risk analysis that does not rely on traditional price and market data, instead using market news to model assets as distributions over a metric space of risk factors. By representing asset returns as integrals over the scalar field of these risk factors, we derive the covariance structure between asset returns. Utilizing encoder-only language models to embed this news data, we explore the relationships between asset return distributions through the concept of Energy Distance, establishing connections between distributional differences and excess returns co-movements. This data-agnostic approach provides new insights into portfolio diversification, risk management, and the construction of hedging strategies. Our findings have significant implications for both theoretical finance and practical risk management, offering a more robust framework for modelling complex financial systems without depending on conventional market data.

The costs of training frontier AI models have grown dramatically in recent years, but there is limited public data on the magnitude and growth of these expenses. This paper develops a detailed cost model to address this gap, estimating training costs using three approaches that account for hardware, energy, cloud rental, and staff expenses. The analysis reveals that the amortized cost to train the most compute-intensive models has grown precipitously at a rate of 2.4x per year since 2016 (95% CI: 2.0x to 3.1x). For key frontier models, such as GPT-4 and Gemini, the most significant expenses are AI accelerator chips and staff costs, each costing tens of millions of dollars. Other notable costs include server components (15-22%), cluster-level interconnect (9-13%), and energy consumption (2-6%). If the trend of growing development costs continues, the largest training runs will cost more than a billion dollars by 2027, meaning that only the most well-funded organizations will be able to finance frontier AI models.

Digital technologies have changed the way supply chain operations are structured. In this article, we conduct systematic syntheses of literature on the impact of new technologies on supply chains and the related cyber risks. A taxonomic/cladistic approach is used for the evaluations of progress in the area of supply chain integration in the Industrial Internet of Things and Industry 4.0, with a specific focus on the mitigation of cyber risks. An analytical framework is presented, based on a critical assessment with respect to issues related to new types of cyber risk and the integration of supply chains with new technologies. This paper identifies a dynamic and self-adapting supply chain system supported with Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) and real-time intelligence for predictive cyber risk analytics. The system is integrated into a cognition engine that enables predictive cyber risk analytics with real-time intelligence from IoT networks at the edge. This enhances capacities and assist in the creation of a comprehensive understanding of the opportunities and threats that arise when edge computing nodes are deployed, and when AI/ML technologies are migrated to the periphery of IoT networks.

The future of software engineering--SE 3.0--is unfolding with the rise of AI teammates: autonomous, goal-driven systems collaborating with human developers. Among these, autonomous coding agents are especially transformative, now actively initiating, reviewing, and evolving code at scale. This paper introduces AIDev, the first large-scale dataset capturing how such agents operate in the wild. Spanning over 456,000 pull requests by five leading agents--OpenAI Codex, Devin, GitHub Copilot, Cursor, and Claude Code--across 61,000 repositories and 47,000 developers, AIDev provides an unprecedented empirical foundation for studying autonomous teammates in software development. Unlike prior work that has largely theorized the rise of AI-native software engineering, AIDev offers structured, open data to support research in benchmarking, agent readiness, optimization, collaboration modeling, and AI governance. The dataset includes rich metadata on PRs, authorship, review timelines, code changes, and integration outcomes--enabling exploration beyond synthetic benchmarks like SWE-bench. For instance, although agents often outperform humans in speed, their PRs are accepted less frequently, revealing a trust and utility gap. Furthermore, while agents accelerate code submission--one developer submitted as many PRs in three days as they had in three years--these are structurally simpler (via code complexity metrics). We envision AIDev as a living resource: extensible, analyzable, and ready for the SE and AI communities. Grounding SE 3.0 in real-world evidence, AIDev enables a new generation of research into AI-native workflows and supports building the next wave of symbiotic human-AI collaboration. The dataset is publicly available at https://github.com/SAILResearch/AI_Teammates_in_SE3. > AI Agent, Agentic AI, Coding Agent, Agentic Coding, Software Engineering Agent

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have witnessed a surge in the development of advanced reasoning paradigms, which are now being integrated into multimodal large language models (MLLMs). However, existing approaches often fall short: methods solely employing reinforcement learning (RL) can struggle with sample inefficiency and activating entirely absent reasoning capabilities, while conventional pipelines that initiate with a cold-start supervised fine-tuning (SFT) phase before RL may restrict the model's exploratory capacity and face suboptimal convergence. In this work, we introduce Metis-RISE (RL Incentivizes and SFT Enhances) for multimodal reasoning model learning. Unlike conventional approaches, Metis-RISE distinctively omits an initial SFT stage, beginning instead with an RL phase (e.g., using a Group Relative Policy Optimization variant) to incentivize and activate the model's latent reasoning capacity. Subsequently, the targeted SFT stage addresses two key challenges identified during RL: (1) inefficient trajectory sampling for tasks where the model possesses but inconsistently applies correct reasoning, which we tackle using self-distilled reasoning trajectories from the RL model itself; and (2) fundamental capability absence, which we address by injecting expert-augmented knowledge for prompts where the model entirely fails. This strategic application of RL for incentivization followed by SFT for enhancement forms the core of Metis-RISE, leading to two versions of our MLLMs (7B and 72B parameters). Evaluations on the OpenCompass Multimodal Reasoning Leaderboard demonstrate that both models achieve state-of-the-art performance among similar-sized models, with the 72B version ranking fourth overall.

Large language model pretraining is compute-intensive, yet many tokens contribute marginally to learning, resulting in inefficiency. We introduce Efficient Selective Language Modeling (ESLM), a risk-aware algorithm that improves training efficiency and distributional robustness by performing online token-level batch selection. ESLM leverages per-token statistics (e.g., entropy or loss) and applies value-at-risk thresholding to retain only the most informative tokens per batch. This data-centric mechanism reshapes the training loss, prioritizing high-risk tokens and eliminating redundant gradient computation. We frame ESLM as a bilevel game: the model competes with a masking adversary that selects worst-case token subsets under a constrained thresholding rule. In the loss-based setting, ESLM recovers conditional value-at-risk loss minimization, providing a principled connection to distributionally robust optimization. We extend our approach to Ada-ESLM, which adaptively tunes the selection confidence during training. Experiments on GPT-2 pretraining show that ESLM significantly reduces training FLOPs while maintaining or improving both perplexity and downstream performance compared to baselines. Our approach also scales across model sizes, pretraining corpora, and integrates naturally with knowledge distillation.

Large language models (LLMs) are demonstrating increasing prowess in cybersecurity applications, creating creating inherent risks alongside their potential for strengthening defenses. In this position paper, we argue that current efforts to evaluate risks posed by these capabilities are misaligned with the goal of understanding real-world impact. Evaluating LLM cybersecurity risk requires more than just measuring model capabilities -- it demands a comprehensive risk assessment that incorporates analysis of threat actor adoption behavior and potential for impact. We propose a risk assessment framework for LLM cyber capabilities and apply it to a case study of language models used as cybersecurity assistants. Our evaluation of frontier models reveals high compliance rates but moderate accuracy on realistic cyber assistance tasks. However, our framework suggests that this particular use case presents only moderate risk due to limited operational advantages and impact potential. Based on these findings, we recommend several improvements to align research priorities with real-world impact assessment, including closer academia-industry collaboration, more realistic modeling of attacker behavior, and inclusion of economic metrics in evaluations. This work represents an important step toward more effective assessment and mitigation of LLM-enabled cybersecurity risks.

Quantitative tools are increasingly appealing for decision support in healthcare, driven by the growing capabilities of advanced AI systems. However, understanding the predictive uncertainties surrounding a tool's output is crucial for decision-makers to ensure reliable and transparent decisions. In this paper, we present a case study on pulmonary nodule detection for lung cancer screening, enhancing an advanced detection model with an uncertainty quantification technique called conformal risk control (CRC). We demonstrate that prediction sets with conformal guarantees are attractive measures of predictive uncertainty in the safety-critical healthcare domain, allowing end-users to achieve arbitrary validity by trading off false positives and providing formal statistical guarantees on model performance. Among ground-truth nodules annotated by at least three radiologists, our model achieves a sensitivity that is competitive with that generally achieved by individual radiologists, with a slight increase in false positives. Furthermore, we illustrate the risks of using off-the-shelve prediction models when faced with ontological uncertainty, such as when radiologists disagree on what constitutes the ground truth on pulmonary nodules.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown significant multilingual capabilities. However, the mechanisms underlying the development of these capabilities during pre-training are not well understood. In this paper, we use code LLMs as an experimental platform to explore the evolution of multilingual capabilities in LLMs during the pre-training process. Based on our observations, we propose the Babel Tower Hypothesis, which describes the entire process of LLMs acquiring new language capabilities. During the learning process, multiple languages initially share a single knowledge system dominated by the primary language and gradually develop language-specific knowledge systems. We then validate the above hypothesis by tracking the internal states of the LLMs through identifying working languages and language transferring neurons. Experimental results show that the internal state changes of the LLM are consistent with our Babel Tower Hypothesis. Building on these insights, we propose a novel method to construct an optimized pre-training corpus for multilingual code LLMs, which significantly outperforms LLMs trained on the original corpus. The proposed Babel Tower Hypothesis provides new insights into designing pre-training data distributions to achieve optimal multilingual capabilities in LLMs.

Online inclusive financial services encounter significant financial risks due to their expansive user base and low default costs. By real-world practice, we reveal that utilizing longer-term user payment behaviors can enhance models' ability to forecast financial risks. However, learning long behavior sequences is non-trivial for deep sequential models. Additionally, the diverse fields of payment behaviors carry rich information, requiring thorough exploitation. These factors collectively complicate the task of long-term user behavior modeling. To tackle these challenges, we propose a Long-term Payment Behavior Sequence Folding method, referred to as LBSF. In LBSF, payment behavior sequences are folded based on merchants, using the merchant field as an intrinsic grouping criterion, which enables informative parallelism without reliance on external knowledge. Meanwhile, we maximize the utility of payment details through a multi-field behavior encoding mechanism. Subsequently, behavior aggregation at the merchant level followed by relational learning across merchants facilitates comprehensive user financial representation. We evaluate LBSF on the financial risk assessment task using a large-scale real-world dataset. The results demonstrate that folding long behavior sequences based on internal behavioral cues effectively models long-term patterns and changes, thereby generating more accurate user financial profiles for practical applications.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) become more prevalent, concerns about their safety, ethics, and potential biases have risen. Systematically evaluating LLMs' risk decision-making tendencies and attitudes, particularly in the ethical domain, has become crucial. This study innovatively applies the Domain-Specific Risk-Taking (DOSPERT) scale from cognitive science to LLMs and proposes a novel Ethical Decision-Making Risk Attitude Scale (EDRAS) to assess LLMs' ethical risk attitudes in depth. We further propose a novel approach integrating risk scales and role-playing to quantitatively evaluate systematic biases in LLMs. Through systematic evaluation and analysis of multiple mainstream LLMs, we assessed the "risk personalities" of LLMs across multiple domains, with a particular focus on the ethical domain, and revealed and quantified LLMs' systematic biases towards different groups. This research helps understand LLMs' risk decision-making and ensure their safe and reliable application. Our approach provides a tool for identifying and mitigating biases, contributing to fairer and more trustworthy AI systems. The code and data are available.

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) has emerged as a popular solution to mitigate the hallucination issues of large language models. However, existing studies on RAG seldom address the issue of predictive uncertainty, i.e., how likely it is that a RAG model's prediction is incorrect, resulting in uncontrollable risks in real-world applications. In this work, we emphasize the importance of risk control, ensuring that RAG models proactively refuse to answer questions with low confidence. Our research identifies two critical latent factors affecting RAG's confidence in its predictions: the quality of the retrieved results and the manner in which these results are utilized. To guide RAG models in assessing their own confidence based on these two latent factors, we develop a counterfactual prompting framework that induces the models to alter these factors and analyzes the effect on their answers. We also introduce a benchmarking procedure to collect answers with the option to abstain, facilitating a series of experiments. For evaluation, we introduce several risk-related metrics and the experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) in educational measurement has revolutionized assessment methods, enabling automated scoring, rapid content analysis, and personalized feedback through machine learning and natural language processing. These advancements provide timely, consistent feedback and valuable insights into student performance, thereby enhancing the assessment experience. However, the deployment of AI in education also raises significant ethical concerns regarding validity, reliability, transparency, fairness, and equity. Issues such as algorithmic bias and the opacity of AI decision-making processes pose risks of perpetuating inequalities and affecting assessment outcomes. Responding to these concerns, various stakeholders, including educators, policymakers, and organizations, have developed guidelines to ensure ethical AI use in education. The National Council of Measurement in Education's Special Interest Group on AI in Measurement and Education (AIME) also focuses on establishing ethical standards and advancing research in this area. In this paper, a diverse group of AIME members examines the ethical implications of AI-powered tools in educational measurement, explores significant challenges such as automation bias and environmental impact, and proposes solutions to ensure AI's responsible and effective use in education.

We present a comprehensive AI risk taxonomy derived from eight government policies from the European Union, United States, and China and 16 company policies worldwide, making a significant step towards establishing a unified language for generative AI safety evaluation. We identify 314 unique risk categories organized into a four-tiered taxonomy. At the highest level, this taxonomy encompasses System & Operational Risks, Content Safety Risks, Societal Risks, and Legal & Rights Risks. The taxonomy establishes connections between various descriptions and approaches to risk, highlighting the overlaps and discrepancies between public and private sector conceptions of risk. By providing this unified framework, we aim to advance AI safety through information sharing across sectors and the promotion of best practices in risk mitigation for generative AI models and systems.

Large language models (LLMs) have become increasingly sophisticated, leading to widespread deployment in sensitive applications where safety and reliability are paramount. However, LLMs have inherent risks accompanying them, including bias, potential for unsafe actions, dataset poisoning, lack of explainability, hallucinations, and non-reproducibility. These risks necessitate the development of "guardrails" to align LLMs with desired behaviors and mitigate potential harm. This work explores the risks associated with deploying LLMs and evaluates current approaches to implementing guardrails and model alignment techniques. We examine intrinsic and extrinsic bias evaluation methods and discuss the importance of fairness metrics for responsible AI development. The safety and reliability of agentic LLMs (those capable of real-world actions) are explored, emphasizing the need for testability, fail-safes, and situational awareness. Technical strategies for securing LLMs are presented, including a layered protection model operating at external, secondary, and internal levels. System prompts, Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) architectures, and techniques to minimize bias and protect privacy are highlighted. Effective guardrail design requires a deep understanding of the LLM's intended use case, relevant regulations, and ethical considerations. Striking a balance between competing requirements, such as accuracy and privacy, remains an ongoing challenge. This work underscores the importance of continuous research and development to ensure the safe and responsible use of LLMs in real-world applications.

Survival risk stratification is an important step in clinical decision making for breast cancer management. We propose a novel deep learning approach for this purpose by integrating histopathological imaging, genetic and clinical data. It employs vision transformers, specifically the MaxViT model, for image feature extraction, and self-attention to capture intricate image relationships at the patient level. A dual cross-attention mechanism fuses these features with genetic data, while clinical data is incorporated at the final layer to enhance predictive accuracy. Experiments on the public TCGA-BRCA dataset show that our model, trained using the negative log likelihood loss function, can achieve superior performance with a mean C-index of 0.64, surpassing existing methods. This advancement facilitates tailored treatment strategies, potentially leading to improved patient outcomes.

Governments are increasingly considering integrating autonomous AI agents in high-stakes military and foreign-policy decision-making, especially with the emergence of advanced generative AI models like GPT-4. Our work aims to scrutinize the behavior of multiple AI agents in simulated wargames, specifically focusing on their predilection to take escalatory actions that may exacerbate multilateral conflicts. Drawing on political science and international relations literature about escalation dynamics, we design a novel wargame simulation and scoring framework to assess the escalation risks of actions taken by these agents in different scenarios. Contrary to prior studies, our research provides both qualitative and quantitative insights and focuses on large language models (LLMs). We find that all five studied off-the-shelf LLMs show forms of escalation and difficult-to-predict escalation patterns. We observe that models tend to develop arms-race dynamics, leading to greater conflict, and in rare cases, even to the deployment of nuclear weapons. Qualitatively, we also collect the models' reported reasonings for chosen actions and observe worrying justifications based on deterrence and first-strike tactics. Given the high stakes of military and foreign-policy contexts, we recommend further examination and cautious consideration before deploying autonomous language model agents for strategic military or diplomatic decision-making.

The recent explosion in the capabilities of large language models has led to a wave of interest in how best to prompt a model to perform a given task. While it may be tempting to simply choose a prompt based on average performance on a validation set, this can lead to a deployment where unexpectedly poor responses are generated, especially for the worst-off users. To mitigate this prospect, we propose Prompt Risk Control, a lightweight framework for selecting a prompt based on rigorous upper bounds on families of informative risk measures. We offer methods for producing bounds on a diverse set of metrics, including quantities that measure worst-case responses and disparities in generation quality across the population of users. In addition, we extend the underlying statistical bounding techniques to accommodate the possibility of distribution shifts in deployment. Experiments on applications such as open-ended chat, medical question summarization, and code generation highlight how such a framework can foster responsible deployment by reducing the risk of the worst outcomes.

Financial risk prediction plays a crucial role in the financial sector. Machine learning methods have been widely applied for automatically detecting potential risks and thus saving the cost of labor. However, the development in this field is lagging behind in recent years by the following two facts: 1) the algorithms used are somewhat outdated, especially in the context of the fast advance of generative AI and large language models (LLMs); 2) the lack of a unified and open-sourced financial benchmark has impeded the related research for years. To tackle these issues, we propose FinPT and FinBench: the former is a novel approach for financial risk prediction that conduct Profile Tuning on large pretrained foundation models, and the latter is a set of high-quality datasets on financial risks such as default, fraud, and churn. In FinPT, we fill the financial tabular data into the pre-defined instruction template, obtain natural-language customer profiles by prompting LLMs, and fine-tune large foundation models with the profile text to make predictions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed FinPT by experimenting with a range of representative strong baselines on FinBench. The analytical studies further deepen the understanding of LLMs for financial risk prediction.

Data-driven modeling based on machine learning (ML) is showing enormous potential for weather forecasting. Rapid progress has been made with impressive results for some applications. The uptake of ML methods could be a game-changer for the incremental progress in traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) known as the 'quiet revolution' of weather forecasting. The computational cost of running a forecast with standard NWP systems greatly hinders the improvements that can be made from increasing model resolution and ensemble sizes. An emerging new generation of ML models, developed using high-quality reanalysis datasets like ERA5 for training, allow forecasts that require much lower computational costs and that are highly-competitive in terms of accuracy. Here, we compare for the first time ML-generated forecasts with standard NWP-based forecasts in an operational-like context, initialized from the same initial conditions. Focusing on deterministic forecasts, we apply common forecast verification tools to assess to what extent a data-driven forecast produced with one of the recently developed ML models (PanguWeather) matches the quality and attributes of a forecast from one of the leading global NWP systems (the ECMWF IFS). The results are very promising, with comparable skill for both global metrics and extreme events, when verified against both the operational analysis and synoptic observations. Increasing forecast smoothness and bias drift with forecast lead time are identified as current drawbacks of ML-based forecasts. A new NWP paradigm is emerging relying on inference from ML models and state-of-the-art analysis and reanalysis datasets for forecast initialization and model training.

Task-oriented dialogue research has mainly focused on a few popular languages like English and Chinese, due to the high dataset creation cost for a new language. To reduce the cost, we apply manual editing to automatically translated data. We create a new multilingual benchmark, X-RiSAWOZ, by translating the Chinese RiSAWOZ to 4 languages: English, French, Hindi, Korean; and a code-mixed English-Hindi language. X-RiSAWOZ has more than 18,000 human-verified dialogue utterances for each language, and unlike most multilingual prior work, is an end-to-end dataset for building fully-functioning agents. The many difficulties we encountered in creating X-RiSAWOZ led us to develop a toolset to accelerate the post-editing of a new language dataset after translation. This toolset improves machine translation with a hybrid entity alignment technique that combines neural with dictionary-based methods, along with many automated and semi-automated validation checks. We establish strong baselines for X-RiSAWOZ by training dialogue agents in the zero- and few-shot settings where limited gold data is available in the target language. Our results suggest that our translation and post-editing methodology and toolset can be used to create new high-quality multilingual dialogue agents cost-effectively. Our dataset, code, and toolkit are released open-source.

Counterfactual Risk Minimization (CRM) is a framework for dealing with the logged bandit feedback problem, where the goal is to improve a logging policy using offline data. In this paper, we explore the case where it is possible to deploy learned policies multiple times and acquire new data. We extend the CRM principle and its theory to this scenario, which we call "Sequential Counterfactual Risk Minimization (SCRM)." We introduce a novel counterfactual estimator and identify conditions that can improve the performance of CRM in terms of excess risk and regret rates, by using an analysis similar to restart strategies in accelerated optimization methods. We also provide an empirical evaluation of our method in both discrete and continuous action settings, and demonstrate the benefits of multiple deployments of CRM.

Robust planning in interactive scenarios requires predicting the uncertain future to make risk-aware decisions. Unfortunately, due to long-tail safety-critical events, the risk is often under-estimated by finite-sampling approximations of probabilistic motion forecasts. This can lead to overconfident and unsafe robot behavior, even with robust planners. Instead of assuming full prediction coverage that robust planners require, we propose to make prediction itself risk-aware. We introduce a new prediction objective to learn a risk-biased distribution over trajectories, so that risk evaluation simplifies to an expected cost estimation under this biased distribution. This reduces the sample complexity of the risk estimation during online planning, which is needed for safe real-time performance. Evaluation results in a didactic simulation environment and on a real-world dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. The code and a demo are available.

We extend conformal prediction to control the expected value of any monotone loss function. The algorithm generalizes split conformal prediction together with its coverage guarantee. Like conformal prediction, the conformal risk control procedure is tight up to an O(1/n) factor. We also introduce extensions of the idea to distribution shift, quantile risk control, multiple and adversarial risk control, and expectations of U-statistics. Worked examples from computer vision and natural language processing demonstrate the usage of our algorithm to bound the false negative rate, graph distance, and token-level F1-score.

Portfolio design and optimization have been always an area of research that has attracted a lot of attention from researchers from the finance domain. Designing an optimum portfolio is a complex task since it involves accurate forecasting of future stock returns and risks and making a suitable tradeoff between them. This paper proposes a systematic approach to designing portfolios using two algorithms, the critical line algorithm, and the hierarchical risk parity algorithm on eight sectors of the Indian stock market. While the portfolios are designed using the stock price data from Jan 1, 2016, to Dec 31, 2020, they are tested on the data from Jan 1, 2021, to Aug 26, 2021. The backtesting results of the portfolios indicate while the performance of the CLA algorithm is superior on the training data, the HRP algorithm has outperformed the CLA algorithm on the test data.

Disease risk prediction has attracted increasing attention in the field of modern healthcare, especially with the latest advances in artificial intelligence (AI). Electronic health records (EHRs), which contain heterogeneous patient information, are widely used in disease risk prediction tasks. One challenge of applying AI models for risk prediction lies in generating interpretable evidence to support the prediction results while retaining the prediction ability. In order to address this problem, we propose the method of jointly embedding words and labels whereby attention modules learn the weights of words from medical notes according to their relevance to the names of risk prediction labels. This approach boosts interpretability by employing an attention mechanism and including the names of prediction tasks in the model. However, its application is only limited to the handling of textual inputs such as medical notes. In this paper, we propose a label dependent attention model LDAM to 1) improve the interpretability by exploiting Clinical-BERT (a biomedical language model pre-trained on a large clinical corpus) to encode biomedically meaningful features and labels jointly; 2) extend the idea of joint embedding to the processing of time-series data, and develop a multi-modal learning framework for integrating heterogeneous information from medical notes and time-series health status indicators. To demonstrate our method, we apply LDAM to the MIMIC-III dataset to predict different disease risks. We evaluate our method both quantitatively and qualitatively. Specifically, the predictive power of LDAM will be shown, and case studies will be carried out to illustrate its interpretability.

Designing an optimum portfolio that allocates weights to its constituent stocks in a way that achieves the best trade-off between the return and the risk is a challenging research problem. The classical mean-variance theory of portfolio proposed by Markowitz is found to perform sub-optimally on the real-world stock market data since the error in estimation for the expected returns adversely affects the performance of the portfolio. This paper presents three approaches to portfolio design, viz, the minimum risk portfolio, the optimum risk portfolio, and the Eigen portfolio, for seven important sectors of the Indian stock market. The daily historical prices of the stocks are scraped from Yahoo Finance website from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020. Three portfolios are built for each of the seven sectors chosen for this study, and the portfolios are analyzed on the training data based on several metrics such as annualized return and risk, weights assigned to the constituent stocks, the correlation heatmaps, and the principal components of the Eigen portfolios. Finally, the optimum risk portfolios and the Eigen portfolios for all sectors are tested on their return over a period of a six-month period. The performances of the portfolios are compared and the portfolio yielding the higher return for each sector is identified.

Reducing traffic accidents is an important public safety challenge, therefore, accident analysis and prediction has been a topic of much research over the past few decades. Using small-scale datasets with limited coverage, being dependent on extensive set of data, and being not applicable for real-time purposes are the important shortcomings of the existing studies. To address these challenges, we propose a new solution for real-time traffic accident prediction using easy-to-obtain, but sparse data. Our solution relies on a deep-neural-network model (which we have named DAP, for Deep Accident Prediction); which utilizes a variety of data attributes such as traffic events, weather data, points-of-interest, and time. DAP incorporates multiple components including a recurrent (for time-sensitive data), a fully connected (for time-insensitive data), and a trainable embedding component (to capture spatial heterogeneity). To fill the data gap, we have - through a comprehensive process of data collection, integration, and augmentation - created a large-scale publicly available database of accident information named US-Accidents. By employing the US-Accidents dataset and through an extensive set of experiments across several large cities, we have evaluated our proposal against several baselines. Our analysis and results show significant improvements to predict rare accident events. Further, we have shown the impact of traffic information, time, and points-of-interest data for real-time accident prediction.

Reconfigurable intelligent surfaces (RISs) have become one of the key technologies in 6G wireless communications. By configuring the reflection beamforming codebooks, RIS focuses signals on target receivers. In this paper, we investigate the codebook configuration for 1-bit RIS-aided systems. We propose a novel learning-based method built upon the advanced methodology of implicit neural representations. The proposed model learns a continuous and differentiable coordinate-to-codebook representation from samplings. Our method only requires the information of the user's coordinate and avoids the assumption of channel models. Moreover, we propose an encoding-decoding strategy to reduce the dimension of codebooks, and thus improve the learning efficiency of the proposed method. Experimental results on simulation and measured data demonstrated the remarkable advantages of the proposed method.

Recent decisions by leading AI labs to either open-source their models or to restrict access to their models has sparked debate about whether, and how, increasingly capable AI models should be shared. Open-sourcing in AI typically refers to making model architecture and weights freely and publicly accessible for anyone to modify, study, build on, and use. This offers advantages such as enabling external oversight, accelerating progress, and decentralizing control over AI development and use. However, it also presents a growing potential for misuse and unintended consequences. This paper offers an examination of the risks and benefits of open-sourcing highly capable foundation models. While open-sourcing has historically provided substantial net benefits for most software and AI development processes, we argue that for some highly capable foundation models likely to be developed in the near future, open-sourcing may pose sufficiently extreme risks to outweigh the benefits. In such a case, highly capable foundation models should not be open-sourced, at least not initially. Alternative strategies, including non-open-source model sharing options, are explored. The paper concludes with recommendations for developers, standard-setting bodies, and governments for establishing safe and responsible model sharing practices and preserving open-source benefits where safe.

Polis is a platform that leverages machine intelligence to scale up deliberative processes. In this paper, we explore the opportunities and risks associated with applying Large Language Models (LLMs) towards challenges with facilitating, moderating and summarizing the results of Polis engagements. In particular, we demonstrate with pilot experiments using Anthropic's Claude that LLMs can indeed augment human intelligence to help more efficiently run Polis conversations. In particular, we find that summarization capabilities enable categorically new methods with immense promise to empower the public in collective meaning-making exercises. And notably, LLM context limitations have a significant impact on insight and quality of these results. However, these opportunities come with risks. We discuss some of these risks, as well as principles and techniques for characterizing and mitigating them, and the implications for other deliberative or political systems that may employ LLMs. Finally, we conclude with several open future research directions for augmenting tools like Polis with LLMs.

Intelligent agents powered by large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated substantial promise in autonomously conducting experiments and facilitating scientific discoveries across various disciplines. While their capabilities are promising, they also introduce novel vulnerabilities that demand careful consideration for safety. However, there exists a notable gap in the literature, as there has been no comprehensive exploration of these vulnerabilities. This position paper fills this gap by conducting a thorough examination of vulnerabilities in LLM-based agents within scientific domains, shedding light on potential risks associated with their misuse and emphasizing the need for safety measures. We begin by providing a comprehensive overview of the potential risks inherent to scientific LLM agents, taking into account user intent, the specific scientific domain, and their potential impact on the external environment. Then, we delve into the origins of these vulnerabilities and provide a scoping review of the limited existing works. Based on our analysis, we propose a triadic framework involving human regulation, agent alignment, and an understanding of environmental feedback (agent regulation) to mitigate these identified risks. Furthermore, we highlight the limitations and challenges associated with safeguarding scientific agents and advocate for the development of improved models, robust benchmarks, and comprehensive regulations to address these issues effectively.

Extreme edge platforms, such as in-vehicle smart devices, require efficient deployment of quantized deep neural networks (DNNs) to enable intelligent applications with limited amounts of energy, memory, and computing resources. However, many edge devices struggle to boost inference throughput of various quantized DNNs due to the varying quantization levels, and these devices lack floating-point (FP) support for on-device learning, which prevents them from improving model accuracy while ensuring data privacy. To tackle the challenges above, we propose a precision-scalable RISC-V DNN processor with on-device learning capability. It facilitates diverse precision levels of fixed-point DNN inference, spanning from 2-bit to 16-bit, and enhances on-device learning through improved support with FP16 operations. Moreover, we employ multiple methods such as FP16 multiplier reuse and multi-precision integer multiplier reuse, along with balanced mapping of FPGA resources, to significantly improve hardware resource utilization. Experimental results on the Xilinx ZCU102 FPGA show that our processor significantly improves inference throughput by 1.6sim14.6times and energy efficiency by 1.1sim14.6times across various DNNs, compared to the prior art, XpulpNN. Additionally, our processor achieves a 16.5times higher FP throughput for on-device learning.

The field of artificial intelligence (AI) has experienced remarkable progress in recent years, driven by the widespread adoption of open-source machine learning models in both research and industry. Considering the resource-intensive nature of training on vast datasets, many applications opt for models that have already been trained. Hence, a small number of key players undertake the responsibility of training and publicly releasing large pre-trained models, providing a crucial foundation for a wide range of applications. However, the adoption of these open-source models carries inherent privacy and security risks that are often overlooked. To provide a concrete example, an inconspicuous model may conceal hidden functionalities that, when triggered by specific input patterns, can manipulate the behavior of the system, such as instructing self-driving cars to ignore the presence of other vehicles. The implications of successful privacy and security attacks encompass a broad spectrum, ranging from relatively minor damage like service interruptions to highly alarming scenarios, including physical harm or the exposure of sensitive user data. In this work, we present a comprehensive overview of common privacy and security threats associated with the use of open-source models. By raising awareness of these dangers, we strive to promote the responsible and secure use of AI systems.

Large language models (LLMs) learn not only natural text generation abilities but also social biases against different demographic groups from real-world data. This poses a critical risk when deploying LLM-based applications. Existing research and resources are not readily applicable in South Korea due to the differences in language and culture, both of which significantly affect the biases and targeted demographic groups. This limitation requires localized social bias datasets to ensure the safe and effective deployment of LLMs. To this end, we present KO SB I, a new social bias dataset of 34k pairs of contexts and sentences in Korean covering 72 demographic groups in 15 categories. We find that through filtering-based moderation, social biases in generated content can be reduced by 16.47%p on average for HyperCLOVA (30B and 82B), and GPT-3.

Emerging Artificial Intelligence-enabled Internet-of-Things (AI-IoT) System-on-a-Chip (SoC) for augmented reality, personalized healthcare, and nano-robotics need to run many diverse tasks within a power envelope of a few tens of mW over a wide range of operating conditions: compute-intensive but strongly quantized Deep Neural Network (DNN) inference, as well as signal processing and control requiring high-precision floating-point. We present Marsellus, an all-digital heterogeneous SoC for AI-IoT end-nodes fabricated in GlobalFoundries 22nm FDX that combines 1) a general-purpose cluster of 16 RISC-V Digital Signal Processing (DSP) cores attuned for the execution of a diverse range of workloads exploiting 4-bit and 2-bit arithmetic extensions (XpulpNN), combined with fused MAC&LOAD operations and floating-point support; 2) a 2-8bit Reconfigurable Binary Engine (RBE) to accelerate 3x3 and 1x1 (pointwise) convolutions in DNNs; 3) a set of On-Chip Monitoring (OCM) blocks connected to an Adaptive Body Biasing (ABB) generator and a hardware control loop, enabling on-the-fly adaptation of transistor threshold voltages. Marsellus achieves up to 180 Gop/s or 3.32 Top/s/W on 2-bit precision arithmetic in software, and up to 637 Gop/s or 12.4 Top/s/W on hardware-accelerated DNN layers.

Decentralised Machine Learning (DML) enables collaborative machine learning without centralised input data. Federated Learning (FL) and Edge Inference are examples of DML. While tools for DML (especially FL) are starting to flourish, many are not flexible and portable enough to experiment with novel processors (e.g., RISC-V), non-fully connected network topologies, and asynchronous collaboration schemes. We overcome these limitations via a domain-specific language allowing us to map DML schemes to an underlying middleware, i.e. the FastFlow parallel programming library. We experiment with it by generating different working DML schemes on x86-64 and ARM platforms and an emerging RISC-V one. We characterise the performance and energy efficiency of the presented schemes and systems. As a byproduct, we introduce a RISC-V porting of the PyTorch framework, the first publicly available to our knowledge.

This paper aims to help structure the risk landscape associated with large-scale Language Models (LMs). In order to foster advances in responsible innovation, an in-depth understanding of the potential risks posed by these models is needed. A wide range of established and anticipated risks are analysed in detail, drawing on multidisciplinary expertise and literature from computer science, linguistics, and social sciences. We outline six specific risk areas: I. Discrimination, Exclusion and Toxicity, II. Information Hazards, III. Misinformation Harms, V. Malicious Uses, V. Human-Computer Interaction Harms, VI. Automation, Access, and Environmental Harms. The first area concerns the perpetuation of stereotypes, unfair discrimination, exclusionary norms, toxic language, and lower performance by social group for LMs. The second focuses on risks from private data leaks or LMs correctly inferring sensitive information. The third addresses risks arising from poor, false or misleading information including in sensitive domains, and knock-on risks such as the erosion of trust in shared information. The fourth considers risks from actors who try to use LMs to cause harm. The fifth focuses on risks specific to LLMs used to underpin conversational agents that interact with human users, including unsafe use, manipulation or deception. The sixth discusses the risk of environmental harm, job automation, and other challenges that may have a disparate effect on different social groups or communities. In total, we review 21 risks in-depth. We discuss the points of origin of different risks and point to potential mitigation approaches. Lastly, we discuss organisational responsibilities in implementing mitigations, and the role of collaboration and participation. We highlight directions for further research, particularly on expanding the toolkit for assessing and evaluating the outlined risks in LMs.

The Combined Algorithm Selection and Hyperparameter optimization (CASH) is one of the most fundamental problems in Automatic Machine Learning (AutoML). The existing Bayesian optimization (BO) based solutions turn the CASH problem into a Hyperparameter Optimization (HPO) problem by combining the hyperparameters of all machine learning (ML) algorithms, and use BO methods to solve it. As a result, these methods suffer from the low-efficiency problem due to the huge hyperparameter space in CASH. To alleviate this issue, we propose the alternating optimization framework, where the HPO problem for each ML algorithm and the algorithm selection problem are optimized alternately. In this framework, the BO methods are used to solve the HPO problem for each ML algorithm separately, incorporating a much smaller hyperparameter space for BO methods. Furthermore, we introduce Rising Bandits, a CASH-oriented Multi-Armed Bandits (MAB) variant, to model the algorithm selection in CASH. This framework can take the advantages of both BO in solving the HPO problem with a relatively small hyperparameter space and the MABs in accelerating the algorithm selection. Moreover, we further develop an efficient online algorithm to solve the Rising Bandits with provably theoretical guarantees. The extensive experiments on 30 OpenML datasets demonstrate the superiority of the proposed approach over the competitive baselines.

The Internet of Things (IoT) triggers new types of cyber risks. Therefore, the integration of new IoT devices and services requires a self-assessment of IoT cyber security posture. By security posture this article refers to the cybersecurity strength of an organisation to predict, prevent and respond to cyberthreats. At present, there is a gap in the state of the art, because there are no self-assessment methods for quantifying IoT cyber risk posture. To address this gap, an empirical analysis is performed of 12 cyber risk assessment approaches. The results and the main findings from the analysis is presented as the current and a target risk state for IoT systems, followed by conclusions and recommendations on a transformation roadmap, describing how IoT systems can achieve the target state with a new goal-oriented dependency model. By target state, we refer to the cyber security target that matches the generic security requirements of an organisation. The research paper studies and adapts four alternatives for IoT risk assessment and identifies the goal-oriented dependency modelling as a dominant approach among the risk assessment models studied. The new goal-oriented dependency model in this article enables the assessment of uncontrollable risk states in complex IoT systems and can be used for a quantitative self-assessment of IoT cyber risk posture.

Breast cancer is a significant health concern affecting millions of women worldwide. Accurate survival risk stratification plays a crucial role in guiding personalised treatment decisions and improving patient outcomes. Here we present BioFusionNet, a deep learning framework that fuses image-derived features with genetic and clinical data to achieve a holistic patient profile and perform survival risk stratification of ER+ breast cancer patients. We employ multiple self-supervised feature extractors, namely DINO and MoCoV3, pretrained on histopathology patches to capture detailed histopathological image features. We then utilise a variational autoencoder (VAE) to fuse these features, and harness the latent space of the VAE to feed into a self-attention network, generating patient-level features. Next, we develop a co-dual-cross-attention mechanism to combine the histopathological features with genetic data, enabling the model to capture the interplay between them. Additionally, clinical data is incorporated using a feed-forward network (FFN), further enhancing predictive performance and achieving comprehensive multimodal feature integration. Furthermore, we introduce a weighted Cox loss function, specifically designed to handle imbalanced survival data, which is a common challenge in the field. The proposed model achieves a mean concordance index (C-index) of 0.77 and a time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) of 0.84, outperforming state-of-the-art methods. It predicts risk (high versus low) with prognostic significance for overall survival (OS) in univariate analysis (HR=2.99, 95% CI: 1.88--4.78, p<0.005), and maintains independent significance in multivariate analysis incorporating standard clinicopathological variables (HR=2.91, 95% CI: 1.80--4.68, p<0.005). The proposed method not only improves model performance but also addresses a critical gap in handling imbalanced data.

Self-disclosure, while being common and rewarding in social media interaction, also poses privacy risks. In this paper, we take the initiative to protect the user-side privacy associated with online self-disclosure through identification and abstraction. We develop a taxonomy of 19 self-disclosure categories, and curate a large corpus consisting of 4.8K annotated disclosure spans. We then fine-tune a language model for identification, achieving over 75% in Token F_1. We further conduct a HCI user study, with 82\% of participants viewing the model positively, highlighting its real world applicability. Motivated by the user feedback, we introduce the task of self-disclosure abstraction. We experiment with both one-span abstraction and three-span abstraction settings, and explore multiple fine-tuning strategies. Our best model can generate diverse abstractions that moderately reduce privacy risks while maintaining high utility according to human evaluation.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has emerged as a powerful technique to make large language models (LLMs) easier to use and more effective. A core piece of the RLHF process is the training and utilization of a model of human preferences that acts as a reward function for optimization. This approach, which operates at the intersection of many stakeholders and academic disciplines, remains poorly understood. RLHF reward models are often cited as being central to achieving performance, yet very few descriptors of capabilities, evaluations, training methods, or open-source models exist. Given this lack of information, further study and transparency is needed for learned RLHF reward models. In this paper, we illustrate the complex history of optimizing preferences, and articulate lines of inquiry to understand the sociotechnical context of reward models. In particular, we highlight the ontological differences between costs, rewards, and preferences at stake in RLHF's foundations, related methodological tensions, and possible research directions to improve general understanding of how reward models function.

Recent advances in Language Model (LM) agents and tool use, exemplified by applications like ChatGPT Plugins, enable a rich set of capabilities but also amplify potential risks - such as leaking private data or causing financial losses. Identifying these risks is labor-intensive, necessitating implementing the tools, manually setting up the environment for each test scenario, and finding risky cases. As tools and agents become more complex, the high cost of testing these agents will make it increasingly difficult to find high-stakes, long-tailed risks. To address these challenges, we introduce ToolEmu: a framework that uses an LM to emulate tool execution and enables the testing of LM agents against a diverse range of tools and scenarios, without manual instantiation. Alongside the emulator, we develop an LM-based automatic safety evaluator that examines agent failures and quantifies associated risks. We test both the tool emulator and evaluator through human evaluation and find that 68.8% of failures identified with ToolEmu would be valid real-world agent failures. Using our curated initial benchmark consisting of 36 high-stakes tools and 144 test cases, we provide a quantitative risk analysis of current LM agents and identify numerous failures with potentially severe outcomes. Notably, even the safest LM agent exhibits such failures 23.9% of the time according to our evaluator, underscoring the need to develop safer LM agents for real-world deployment.

The robustness of legged locomotion is crucial for quadrupedal robots in challenging terrains. Recently, Reinforcement Learning (RL) has shown promising results in legged locomotion and various methods try to integrate privileged distillation, scene modeling, and external sensors to improve the generalization and robustness of locomotion policies. However, these methods are hard to handle uncertain scenarios such as abrupt terrain changes or unexpected external forces. In this paper, we consider a novel risk-sensitive perspective to enhance the robustness of legged locomotion. Specifically, we employ a distributional value function learned by quantile regression to model the aleatoric uncertainty of environments, and perform risk-averse policy learning by optimizing the worst-case scenarios via a risk distortion measure. Extensive experiments in both simulation environments and a real Aliengo robot demonstrate that our method is efficient in handling various external disturbances, and the resulting policy exhibits improved robustness in harsh and uncertain situations in legged locomotion. Videos are available at https://risk-averse-locomotion.github.io/.

This paper studies distributional model risk in marginal problems, where each marginal measure is assumed to lie in a Wasserstein ball centered at a fixed reference measure with a given radius. Theoretically, we establish several fundamental results including strong duality, finiteness of the proposed Wasserstein distributional model risk, and the existence of an optimizer at each radius. In addition, we show continuity of the Wasserstein distributional model risk as a function of the radius. Using strong duality, we extend the well-known Makarov bounds for the distribution function of the sum of two random variables with given marginals to Wasserstein distributionally robust Markarov bounds. Practically, we illustrate our results on four distinct applications when the sample information comes from multiple data sources and only some marginal reference measures are identified. They are: partial identification of treatment effects; externally valid treatment choice via robust welfare functions; Wasserstein distributionally robust estimation under data combination; and evaluation of the worst aggregate risk measures.

Rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) have sparked growing concerns among experts, policymakers, and world leaders regarding the potential for increasingly advanced AI systems to pose catastrophic risks. Although numerous risks have been detailed separately, there is a pressing need for a systematic discussion and illustration of the potential dangers to better inform efforts to mitigate them. This paper provides an overview of the main sources of catastrophic AI risks, which we organize into four categories: malicious use, in which individuals or groups intentionally use AIs to cause harm; AI race, in which competitive environments compel actors to deploy unsafe AIs or cede control to AIs; organizational risks, highlighting how human factors and complex systems can increase the chances of catastrophic accidents; and rogue AIs, describing the inherent difficulty in controlling agents far more intelligent than humans. For each category of risk, we describe specific hazards, present illustrative stories, envision ideal scenarios, and propose practical suggestions for mitigating these dangers. Our goal is to foster a comprehensive understanding of these risks and inspire collective and proactive efforts to ensure that AIs are developed and deployed in a safe manner. Ultimately, we hope this will allow us to realize the benefits of this powerful technology while minimizing the potential for catastrophic outcomes.

Software engineers develop, fine-tune, and deploy deep learning (DL) models. They use and re-use models in a variety of development frameworks and deploy them on a range of runtime environments. In this diverse ecosystem, engineers use DL model converters to move models from frameworks to runtime environments. However, errors in converters can compromise model quality and disrupt deployment. The failure frequency and failure modes of DL model converters are unknown. In this paper, we conduct the first failure analysis on DL model converters. Specifically, we characterize failures in model converters associated with ONNX (Open Neural Network eXchange). We analyze past failures in the ONNX converters in two major DL frameworks, PyTorch and TensorFlow. The symptoms, causes, and locations of failures (for N=200 issues), and trends over time are also reported. We also evaluate present-day failures by converting 8,797 models, both real-world and synthetically generated instances. The consistent result from both parts of the study is that DL model converters commonly fail by producing models that exhibit incorrect behavior: 33% of past failures and 8% of converted models fell into this category. Our results motivate future research on making DL software simpler to maintain, extend, and validate.

In recent decades, wildfires, as widespread and extremely destructive natural disasters, have caused tremendous property losses and fatalities, as well as extensive damage to forest ecosystems. Many fire risk assessment projects have been proposed to prevent wildfires, but GIS-based methods are inherently challenging to scale to different geographic areas due to variations in data collection and local conditions. Inspired by the abundance of publicly available remote sensing projects and the burgeoning development of deep learning in computer vision, our research focuses on assessing fire risk using remote sensing imagery. In this work, we propose a novel remote sensing dataset, FireRisk, consisting of 7 fire risk classes with a total of 91872 labelled images for fire risk assessment. This remote sensing dataset is labelled with the fire risk classes supplied by the Wildfire Hazard Potential (WHP) raster dataset, and remote sensing images are collected using the National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP), a high-resolution remote sensing imagery program. On FireRisk, we present benchmark performance for supervised and self-supervised representations, with Masked Autoencoders (MAE) pre-trained on ImageNet1k achieving the highest classification accuracy, 65.29%. This remote sensing dataset, FireRisk, provides a new direction for fire risk assessment, and we make it publicly available on https://github.com/CharmonyShen/FireRisk.

Score-based generative modeling, informally referred to as diffusion models, continue to grow in popularity across several important domains and tasks. While they provide high-quality and diverse samples from empirical distributions, important questions remain on the reliability and trustworthiness of these sampling procedures for their responsible use in critical scenarios. Conformal prediction is a modern tool to construct finite-sample, distribution-free uncertainty guarantees for any black-box predictor. In this work, we focus on image-to-image regression tasks and we present a generalization of the Risk-Controlling Prediction Sets (RCPS) procedure, that we term K-RCPS, which allows to (i) provide entrywise calibrated intervals for future samples of any diffusion model, and (ii) control a certain notion of risk with respect to a ground truth image with minimal mean interval length. Differently from existing conformal risk control procedures, ours relies on a novel convex optimization approach that allows for multidimensional risk control while provably minimizing the mean interval length. We illustrate our approach on two real-world image denoising problems: on natural images of faces as well as on computed tomography (CT) scans of the abdomen, demonstrating state of the art performance.

In this paper, we study risk-sensitive Reinforcement Learning (RL), focusing on the objective of Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) with risk tolerance tau. Starting with multi-arm bandits (MABs), we show the minimax CVaR regret rate is Omega(tau^{-1AK}), where A is the number of actions and K is the number of episodes, and that it is achieved by an Upper Confidence Bound algorithm with a novel Bernstein bonus. For online RL in tabular Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), we show a minimax regret lower bound of Omega(tau^{-1SAK}) (with normalized cumulative rewards), where S is the number of states, and we propose a novel bonus-driven Value Iteration procedure. We show that our algorithm achieves the optimal regret of widetilde O(tau^{-1SAK}) under a continuity assumption and in general attains a near-optimal regret of widetilde O(tau^{-1}SAK), which is minimax-optimal for constant tau. This improves on the best available bounds. By discretizing rewards appropriately, our algorithms are computationally efficient.

Self-supervised learning (SSL) pipelines differ in many design choices such as the architecture, augmentations, or pretraining data. Yet SSL is typically evaluated using a single metric: linear probing on ImageNet. This does not provide much insight into why or when a model is better, now how to improve it. To address this, we propose an SSL risk decomposition, which generalizes the classical supervised approximation-estimation decomposition by considering errors arising from the representation learning step. Our decomposition consists of four error components: approximation, representation usability, probe generalization, and encoder generalization. We provide efficient estimators for each component and use them to analyze the effect of 30 design choices on 169 SSL vision models evaluated on ImageNet. Our analysis gives valuable insights for designing and using SSL models. For example, it highlights the main sources of error and shows how to improve SSL in specific settings (full- vs few-shot) by trading off error components. All results and pretrained models are at https://github.com/YannDubs/SSL-Risk-Decomposition.

Recently, test-time adaptation (TTA) has been proposed as a promising solution for addressing distribution shifts. It allows a base model to adapt to an unforeseen distribution during inference by leveraging the information from the batch of (unlabeled) test data. However, we uncover a novel security vulnerability of TTA based on the insight that predictions on benign samples can be impacted by malicious samples in the same batch. To exploit this vulnerability, we propose Distribution Invading Attack (DIA), which injects a small fraction of malicious data into the test batch. DIA causes models using TTA to misclassify benign and unperturbed test data, providing an entirely new capability for adversaries that is infeasible in canonical machine learning pipelines. Through comprehensive evaluations, we demonstrate the high effectiveness of our attack on multiple benchmarks across six TTA methods. In response, we investigate two countermeasures to robustify the existing insecure TTA implementations, following the principle of "security by design". Together, we hope our findings can make the community aware of the utility-security tradeoffs in deploying TTA and provide valuable insights for developing robust TTA approaches.

To enable quantitative risk assessment of uncontrollable risk states in complex and coupled IoT systems, a new epistemological equation is designed and tested though comparative and empirical analysis. The comparative analysis is conducted on national digital strategies, followed by an empirical analysis of cyber risk assessment approaches. The new epistemological analysis approach enables the assessment of uncontrollable risk states in complex IoT systems, which begin to resemble artificial intelligence, and can be used for a quantitative self-assessment of IoT cyber risk posture.

Recent domain generalization (DG) approaches typically use the hypothesis learned on source domains for inference on the unseen target domain. However, such a hypothesis can be arbitrarily far from the optimal one for the target domain, induced by a gap termed ``adaptivity gap''. Without exploiting the domain information from the unseen test samples, adaptivity gap estimation and minimization are intractable, which hinders us to robustify a model to any unknown distribution. In this paper, we first establish a generalization bound that explicitly considers the adaptivity gap. Our bound motivates two strategies to reduce the gap: the first one is ensembling multiple classifiers to enrich the hypothesis space, then we propose effective gap estimation methods for guiding the selection of a better hypothesis for the target. The other method is minimizing the gap directly by adapting model parameters using online target samples. We thus propose Domain-specific Risk Minimization (DRM). During training, DRM models the distributions of different source domains separately; for inference, DRM performs online model steering using the source hypothesis for each arriving target sample. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed DRM for domain generalization with the following advantages: 1) it significantly outperforms competitive baselines on different distributional shift settings; 2) it achieves either comparable or superior accuracies on all source domains compared to vanilla empirical risk minimization; 3) it remains simple and efficient during training, and 4) it is complementary to invariant learning approaches.

In order for agents in multi-agent systems (MAS) to be safe, they need to take into account the risks posed by the actions of other agents. However, the dominant paradigm in game theory (GT) assumes that agents are not affected by risk from other agents and only strive to maximise their expected utility. For example, in hybrid human-AI driving systems, it is necessary to limit large deviations in reward resulting from car crashes. Although there are equilibrium concepts in game theory that take into account risk aversion, they either assume that agents are risk-neutral with respect to the uncertainty caused by the actions of other agents, or they are not guaranteed to exist. We introduce a new GT-based Risk-Averse Equilibrium (RAE) that always produces a solution that minimises the potential variance in reward accounting for the strategy of other agents. Theoretically and empirically, we show RAE shares many properties with a Nash Equilibrium (NE), establishing convergence properties and generalising to risk-dominant NE in certain cases. To tackle large-scale problems, we extend RAE to the PSRO multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) framework. We empirically demonstrate the minimum reward variance benefits of RAE in matrix games with high-risk outcomes. Results on MARL experiments show RAE generalises to risk-dominant NE in a trust dilemma game and that it reduces instances of crashing by 7x in an autonomous driving setting versus the best performing baseline.

In dynamic programming (DP) and reinforcement learning (RL), an agent learns to act optimally in terms of expected long-term return by sequentially interacting with its environment modeled by a Markov decision process (MDP). More generally in distributional reinforcement learning (DRL), the focus is on the whole distribution of the return, not just its expectation. Although DRL-based methods produced state-of-the-art performance in RL with function approximation, they involve additional quantities (compared to the non-distributional setting) that are still not well understood. As a first contribution, we introduce a new class of distributional operators, together with a practical DP algorithm for policy evaluation, that come with a robust MDP interpretation. Indeed, our approach reformulates through an augmented state space where each state is split into a worst-case substate and a best-case substate, whose values are maximized by safe and risky policies respectively. Finally, we derive distributional operators and DP algorithms solving a new control task: How to distinguish safe from risky optimal actions in order to break ties in the space of optimal policies?

We investigate a new threat to neural sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) models: training-time attacks that cause models to "spin" their outputs so as to support an adversary-chosen sentiment or point of view -- but only when the input contains adversary-chosen trigger words. For example, a spinned summarization model outputs positive summaries of any text that mentions the name of some individual or organization. Model spinning introduces a "meta-backdoor" into a model. Whereas conventional backdoors cause models to produce incorrect outputs on inputs with the trigger, outputs of spinned models preserve context and maintain standard accuracy metrics, yet also satisfy a meta-task chosen by the adversary. Model spinning enables propaganda-as-a-service, where propaganda is defined as biased speech. An adversary can create customized language models that produce desired spins for chosen triggers, then deploy these models to generate disinformation (a platform attack), or else inject them into ML training pipelines (a supply-chain attack), transferring malicious functionality to downstream models trained by victims. To demonstrate the feasibility of model spinning, we develop a new backdooring technique. It stacks an adversarial meta-task onto a seq2seq model, backpropagates the desired meta-task output to points in the word-embedding space we call "pseudo-words," and uses pseudo-words to shift the entire output distribution of the seq2seq model. We evaluate this attack on language generation, summarization, and translation models with different triggers and meta-tasks such as sentiment, toxicity, and entailment. Spinned models largely maintain their accuracy metrics (ROUGE and BLEU) while shifting their outputs to satisfy the adversary's meta-task. We also show that, in the case of a supply-chain attack, the spin functionality transfers to downstream models.

The Invariant Risk Minimization (IRM) principle was first proposed by Arjovsky et al. [2019] to address the domain generalization problem by leveraging data heterogeneity from differing experimental conditions. Specifically, IRM seeks to find a data representation under which an optimal classifier remains invariant across all domains. Despite the conceptual appeal of IRM, the effectiveness of the originally proposed invariance penalty has recently been brought into question. In particular, there exists counterexamples for which that invariance penalty can be arbitrarily small for non-invariant data representations. We propose an alternative invariance penalty by revisiting the Gramian matrix of the data representation. We discuss the role of its eigenvalues in the relationship between the risk and the invariance penalty, and demonstrate that it is ill-conditioned for said counterexamples. The proposed approach is guaranteed to recover an invariant representation for linear settings under mild non-degeneracy conditions. Its effectiveness is substantiated by experiments on DomainBed and InvarianceUnitTest, two extensive test beds for domain generalization.

With an estimated 160,000 deaths in 2018, lung cancer is the most common cause of cancer death in the United States. Lung cancer CT screening has been shown to reduce mortality by up to 40% and is now included in US screening guidelines. Reducing the high error rates in lung cancer screening is imperative because of the high clinical and financial costs caused by diagnosis mistakes. Despite the use of standards for radiological diagnosis, persistent inter-grader variability and incomplete characterization of comprehensive imaging findings remain as limitations of current methods. These limitations suggest opportunities for more sophisticated systems to improve performance and inter-reader consistency. In this report, we reproduce a state-of-the-art deep learning algorithm for lung cancer risk prediction. Our model predicts malignancy probability and risk bucket classification from lung CT studies. This allows for risk categorization of patients being screened and suggests the most appropriate surveillance and management. Combining our solution high accuracy, consistency and fully automated nature, our approach may enable highly efficient screening procedures and accelerate the adoption of lung cancer screening.

Large deep neural networks are powerful, but exhibit undesirable behaviors such as memorization and sensitivity to adversarial examples. In this work, we propose mixup, a simple learning principle to alleviate these issues. In essence, mixup trains a neural network on convex combinations of pairs of examples and their labels. By doing so, mixup regularizes the neural network to favor simple linear behavior in-between training examples. Our experiments on the ImageNet-2012, CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, Google commands and UCI datasets show that mixup improves the generalization of state-of-the-art neural network architectures. We also find that mixup reduces the memorization of corrupt labels, increases the robustness to adversarial examples, and stabilizes the training of generative adversarial networks.