Daily Papers

This work summarizes two strategies for completing time-series (TS) tasks using today's language model (LLM): LLM-for-TS, design and train a fundamental large model for TS data; TS-for-LLM, enable the pre-trained LLM to handle TS data. Considering the insufficient data accumulation, limited resources, and semantic context requirements, this work focuses on TS-for-LLM methods, where we aim to activate LLM's ability for TS data by designing a TS embedding method suitable for LLM. The proposed method is named TEST. It first tokenizes TS, builds an encoder to embed them by instance-wise, feature-wise, and text-prototype-aligned contrast, and then creates prompts to make LLM more open to embeddings, and finally implements TS tasks. Experiments are carried out on TS classification and forecasting tasks using 8 LLMs with different structures and sizes. Although its results cannot significantly outperform the current SOTA models customized for TS tasks, by treating LLM as the pattern machine, it can endow LLM's ability to process TS data without compromising the language ability. This paper is intended to serve as a foundational work that will inspire further research.

Time-series analysis is critical for a wide range of fields such as healthcare, finance, transportation, and energy, among many others. The practical applications often involve analyzing time-series data alongside contextual information in the form of natural language to support informed decisions. However, current time-series models are limited in their ability to perform reasoning that involves both time-series and their textual content. In this work, we address this gap by introducing Chat-TS, a large language model (LLM) based framework, designed to support reasoning over time series and textual data. Unlike traditional models, Chat-TS integrates time-series tokens into LLMs' vocabulary, enhancing its reasoning ability over both modalities without compromising the core natural language capabilities, enabling practical analysis and reasoning across modalities. To support learning and evaluation in this setup, we contribute new datasets: the TS Instruct Training Dataset which pairs diverse time-series data with relevant text instructions and responses for instruction tuning, the TS Instruct Question and Answer (QA) Gold Dataset which provides multiple-choice questions designed to evaluate multimodal reasoning, and a TS Instruct Quantitative Probing Set which contains a small subset of the TS Instruct QA tasks alongside math and decision-making questions for LLM evaluation. We designed a training strategy to preserve the inherent reasoning capabilities of LLMs while augmenting them for time-series reasoning. Experiments show that Chat-TS achieves state-of-the-art performance in multi-modal reasoning tasks by maintaining strong natural language proficiency while improving time-series reasoning. ~To ensure replicability and facilitate future research, all models, datasets, and code will be available at [\texttt{Github-URL].}

Large language models (LLMs) typically employ sampling or beam search, accompanied by prompts such as Chain-of-Thought (CoT), to boost reasoning and decoding ability. Recent work like Tree-of-Thought (ToT) and Reasoning via Planning (RAP) aim to augment the reasoning capabilities of LLMs by utilizing tree-search algorithms to guide multi-step reasoning. These methods mainly focus on LLMs' reasoning ability during inference and heavily rely on human-designed prompts to activate LLM as a value function, which lacks general applicability and scalability. To address these limitations, we present an AlphaZero-like tree-search framework for LLMs (termed TS-LLM), systematically illustrating how tree-search with a learned value function can guide LLMs' decoding ability. TS-LLM distinguishes itself in two key ways: (1) Leveraging a learned value function, our approach can be generally applied to different tasks beyond reasoning (such as RLHF alignment), and LLMs of any size, without prompting advanced, large-scale models. (2) It can guide LLM's decoding during both inference and training. Empirical evaluations across reasoning, planning, and RLHF alignment tasks validate the effectiveness of TS-LLM, even on trees with a depth of 64.

Large pre-trained models for zero/few-shot learning excel in language and vision domains but encounter challenges in multivariate time series (TS) due to the diverse nature and scarcity of publicly available pre-training data. Consequently, there has been a recent surge in utilizing pre-trained large language models (LLMs) with token adaptations for TS forecasting. These approaches employ cross-domain transfer learning and surprisingly yield impressive results. However, these models are typically very slow and large (~billion parameters) and do not consider cross-channel correlations. To address this, we present Tiny Time Mixers (TTM), a significantly small model based on the lightweight TSMixer architecture. TTM marks the first success in developing fast and tiny general pre-trained models (<1M parameters), exclusively trained on public TS datasets, with effective transfer learning capabilities for forecasting. To tackle the complexity of pre-training on multiple datasets with varied temporal resolutions, we introduce several novel enhancements such as adaptive patching, dataset augmentation via downsampling, and resolution prefix tuning. Moreover, we employ a multi-level modeling strategy to effectively model channel correlations and infuse exogenous signals during fine-tuning, a crucial capability lacking in existing benchmarks. TTM shows significant accuracy gains (12-38\%) over popular benchmarks in few/zero-shot forecasting. It also drastically reduces the compute needs as compared to LLM-TS methods, with a 14X cut in learnable parameters, 106X less total parameters, and substantial reductions in fine-tuning (65X) and inference time (54X). In fact, TTM's zero-shot often surpasses the few-shot results in many popular benchmarks, highlighting the efficacy of our approach. Code and pre-trained models will be open-sourced.

Recent advances in multimodal Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown great success in understanding multi-modal contents. For video understanding tasks, training-based video LLMs are difficult to build due to the scarcity of high-quality, curated video-text paired data. In contrast, paired image-text data are much easier to obtain, and there is substantial similarity between images and videos. Consequently, extending image LLMs for video understanding tasks presents an appealing alternative. Developing effective strategies for compressing visual tokens from multiple frames is a promising way to leverage the powerful pre-trained image LLM. In this work, we explore the limitations of the existing compression strategies for building a training-free video LLM. The findings lead to our method TS-LLaVA, which constructs visual tokens through a Thumbnail-and-Sampling strategy. Given a video, we select few equidistant frames from all input frames to construct a Thumbnail image as a detailed visual cue, complemented by Sampled visual tokens from all input frames. Our method establishes the new state-of-the-art performance among training-free video LLMs on various benchmarks. Notably, our 34B model outperforms GPT-4V on the MVBench benchmark, and achieves performance comparable to the 72B training-based video LLM, Video-LLaMA2, on the challenging MLVU benchmark. Code is available at https://github.com/tingyu215/TS-LLaVA.

Mainstream approaches to aligning large language models (LLMs) heavily rely on human preference data, particularly when models require periodic updates. The standard process for iterative alignment of LLMs involves collecting new human feedback for each update. However, the data collection process is costly and challenging to scale. To address this issue, we introduce the "TS-Align" framework, which fine-tunes a policy model using pairwise feedback data automatically mined from its outputs. This automatic mining process is efficiently accomplished through the collaboration between a large-scale teacher model and a small-scale student model. The policy fine-tuning process can be iteratively repeated using on-policy generations within our proposed teacher-student collaborative framework. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our final aligned policy outperforms the base policy model with an average win rate of 69.7% across seven conversational or instruction-following datasets. Furthermore, we show that the ranking capability of the teacher is effectively distilled into the student through our pipeline, resulting in a small-scale yet effective reward model for policy model alignment.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) has advanced significantly in recent years. The complexity of RAG systems, which involve multiple components-such as indexing, retrieval, and generation-along with numerous other parameters, poses substantial challenges for systematic evaluation and quality enhancement. Previous research highlights that evaluating RAG systems is essential for documenting advancements, comparing configurations, and identifying effective approaches for domain-specific applications. This study systematically reviews 63 academic articles to provide a comprehensive overview of state-of-the-art RAG evaluation methodologies, focusing on four key areas: datasets, retrievers, indexing and databases, and the generator component. We observe the feasibility of an automated evaluation approach for each component of a RAG system, leveraging an LLM capable of both generating evaluation datasets and conducting evaluations. In addition, we found that further practical research is essential to provide companies with clear guidance on the do's and don'ts of implementing and evaluating RAG systems. By synthesizing evaluation approaches for key RAG components and emphasizing the creation and adaptation of domain-specific datasets for benchmarking, we contribute to the advancement of systematic evaluation methods and the improvement of evaluation rigor for RAG systems. Furthermore, by examining the interplay between automated approaches leveraging LLMs and human judgment, we contribute to the ongoing discourse on balancing automation and human input, clarifying their respective contributions, limitations, and challenges in achieving robust and reliable evaluations.

Recent observations have underscored a disparity between the inflated benchmark scores and the actual performance of LLMs, raising concerns about potential contamination of evaluation benchmarks. This issue is especially critical for closed-source models and certain open-source models where training data transparency is lacking. In this paper we study data contamination by proposing two methods tailored for both open-source and proprietary LLMs. We first introduce a retrieval-based system to explore potential overlaps between evaluation benchmarks and pretraining corpora. We further present a novel investigation protocol named Testset Slot Guessing (TS-Guessing), applicable to both open and proprietary models. This approach entails masking a wrong answer in a multiple-choice question and prompting the model to fill in the gap. Additionally, it involves obscuring an unlikely word in an evaluation example and asking the model to produce it. We find that certain commercial LLMs could surprisingly guess the missing option in various test sets. Specifically, in the TruthfulQA benchmark, we find that LLMs exhibit notable performance improvement when provided with additional metadata in the benchmark. Further, in the MMLU benchmark, ChatGPT and GPT-4 demonstrated an exact match rate of 52\% and 57\%, respectively, in guessing the missing options in benchmark test data. We hope these results underscore the need for more robust evaluation methodologies and benchmarks in the field.

Recently, leveraging pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) for time series (TS) tasks has gained increasing attention, which involves activating and enhancing LLMs' capabilities. Many methods aim to activate LLMs' capabilities based on token-level alignment but overlook LLMs' inherent strength on natural language processing -- their deep understanding of linguistic logic and structure rather than superficial embedding processing. We propose Context-Alignment, a new paradigm that aligns TS with a linguistic component in the language environments familiar to LLMs to enable LLMs to contextualize and comprehend TS data, thereby activating their capabilities. Specifically, such context-level alignment comprises structural alignment and logical alignment, which is achieved by a Dual-Scale Context-Alignment GNNs (DSCA-GNNs) applied to TS-language multimodal inputs. Structural alignment utilizes dual-scale nodes to describe hierarchical structure in TS-language, enabling LLMs treat long TS data as a whole linguistic component while preserving intrinsic token features. Logical alignment uses directed edges to guide logical relationships, ensuring coherence in the contextual semantics. Demonstration examples prompt are employed to construct Demonstration Examples based Context-Alignment (DECA) following DSCA-GNNs framework. DECA can be flexibly and repeatedly integrated into various layers of pre-trained LLMs to improve awareness of logic and structure, thereby enhancing performance. Extensive experiments show the effectiveness of DECA and the importance of Context-Alignment across tasks, particularly in few-shot and zero-shot forecasting, confirming that Context-Alignment provide powerful prior knowledge on context.

Large language models (LLMs) have created new opportunities to assist teachers and support student learning. Methods such as chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting enable LLMs to grade formative assessments in science, providing scores and relevant feedback to students. However, the extent to which these methods generalize across curricula in multiple domains (such as science, computing, and engineering) remains largely untested. In this paper, we introduce Chain-of-Thought Prompting + Active Learning (CoTAL), an LLM-based approach to formative assessment scoring that (1) leverages Evidence-Centered Design (ECD) principles to develop curriculum-aligned formative assessments and rubrics, (2) applies human-in-the-loop prompt engineering to automate response scoring, and (3) incorporates teacher and student feedback to iteratively refine assessment questions, grading rubrics, and LLM prompts for automated grading. Our findings demonstrate that CoTAL improves GPT-4's scoring performance, achieving gains of up to 24.5% over a non-prompt-engineered baseline. Both teachers and students view CoTAL as effective in scoring and explaining student responses, each providing valuable refinements to enhance grading accuracy and explanation quality.

In the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem, a randomized probability matching policy called Thompson sampling (TS) has shown excellent performance in various reward models. In addition to the empirical performance, TS has been shown to achieve asymptotic problem-dependent lower bounds in several models. However, its optimality has been mainly addressed under light-tailed or one-parameter models that belong to exponential families. In this paper, we consider the optimality of TS for the Pareto model that has a heavy tail and is parameterized by two unknown parameters. Specifically, we discuss the optimality of TS with probability matching priors that include the Jeffreys prior and the reference priors. We first prove that TS with certain probability matching priors can achieve the optimal regret bound. Then, we show the suboptimality of TS with other priors, including the Jeffreys and the reference priors. Nevertheless, we find that TS with the Jeffreys and reference priors can achieve the asymptotic lower bound if one uses a truncation procedure. These results suggest carefully choosing noninformative priors to avoid suboptimality and show the effectiveness of truncation procedures in TS-based policies.

Computer vision was long a tool used for aiding visually impaired people to move around their environment and avoid obstacles and falls. Solutions are limited to either indoor or outdoor scenes, which limits the kind of places and scenes visually disabled people can be in, including entertainment places such as theatres. Furthermore, most of the proposed computer-vision-based methods rely on RGB benchmarks to train their models resulting in a limited performance due to the absence of the depth modality. In this paper, we propose a novel RGB-D dataset containing theatre scenes with ground truth human actions and dense captions annotations for image captioning and human action recognition: TS-RGBD dataset. It includes three types of data: RGB, depth, and skeleton sequences, captured by Microsoft Kinect. We test image captioning models on our dataset as well as some skeleton-based human action recognition models in order to extend the range of environment types where a visually disabled person can be, by detecting human actions and textually describing appearances of regions of interest in theatre scenes.

Text summarization (TS) is a natural language processing (NLP) subtask pertaining to the automatic formulation of a concise and coherent summary that covers the major concepts and topics from one or multiple documents. Recent advancements in deep learning have led to the development of abstractive summarization transformer-based models, which outperform classical approaches. In any case, research in this field focuses on high resource languages such as English, while the corresponding work for low resource languages is still underdeveloped. Taking the above into account, this paper proposes a series of novel TS models for Greek news articles. The proposed models were thoroughly evaluated on the same dataset against GreekBART, which is the state-of-the-art model in Greek abstractive news summarization. Our evaluation results reveal that most of the proposed models significantly outperform GreekBART on various evaluation metrics. We make our evaluation code public, aiming to increase the reproducibility of this work and facilitate future research in the field.

Complex, temporally evolving phenomena, from climate to brain activity, are governed by dynamical systems (DS). DS reconstruction (DSR) seeks to infer generative surrogate models of these from observed data, reproducing their long-term behavior. Existing DSR approaches require purpose-training for any new system observed, lacking the zero-shot and in-context inference capabilities known from LLMs. Here we introduce DynaMix, a novel multivariate ALRNN-based mixture-of-experts architecture pre-trained for DSR, the first DSR model able to generalize zero-shot to out-of-domain DS. Just from a provided context signal, without any re-training, DynaMix faithfully forecasts the long-term evolution of novel DS where existing time series (TS) foundation models, like Chronos, fail -- at a fraction of the number of parameters and orders of magnitude faster inference times. DynaMix outperforms TS foundation models in terms of long-term statistics, and often also short-term forecasts, even on real-world time series, like traffic or weather data, typically used for training and evaluating TS models, but not at all part of DynaMix' training corpus. We illustrate some of the failure modes of TS models for DSR problems, and conclude that models built on DS principles may bear a huge potential also for advancing the TS prediction field.

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) are becoming the leading paradigm for generative models. It has recently shown breakthroughs in audio synthesis, time series imputation and forecasting. In this paper, we propose Diffusion-TS, a novel diffusion-based framework that generates multivariate time series samples of high quality by using an encoder-decoder transformer with disentangled temporal representations, in which the decomposition technique guides Diffusion-TS to capture the semantic meaning of time series while transformers mine detailed sequential information from the noisy model input. Different from existing diffusion-based approaches, we train the model to directly reconstruct the sample instead of the noise in each diffusion step, combining a Fourier-based loss term. Diffusion-TS is expected to generate time series satisfying both interpretablity and realness. In addition, it is shown that the proposed Diffusion-TS can be easily extended to conditional generation tasks, such as forecasting and imputation, without any model changes. This also motivates us to further explore the performance of Diffusion-TS under irregular settings. Finally, through qualitative and quantitative experiments, results show that Diffusion-TS achieves the state-of-the-art results on various realistic analyses of time series.