Daily Papers

This paper introduces an improved duration informed attention neural network (DurIAN-E) for expressive and high-fidelity text-to-speech (TTS) synthesis. Inherited from the original DurIAN model, an auto-regressive model structure in which the alignments between the input linguistic information and the output acoustic features are inferred from a duration model is adopted. Meanwhile the proposed DurIAN-E utilizes multiple stacked SwishRNN-based Transformer blocks as linguistic encoders. Style-Adaptive Instance Normalization (SAIN) layers are exploited into frame-level encoders to improve the modeling ability of expressiveness. A denoiser incorporating both denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM) for mel-spectrograms and SAIN modules is conducted to further improve the synthetic speech quality and expressiveness. Experimental results prove that the proposed expressive TTS model in this paper can achieve better performance than the state-of-the-art approaches in both subjective mean opinion score (MOS) and preference tests.

We introduce OneCAT, a unified multimodal model that seamlessly integrates understanding, generation, and editing within a novel, pure decoder-only transformer architecture. Our framework uniquely eliminates the need for external components such as Vision Transformers (ViT) or vision tokenizer during inference, leading to significant efficiency gains, especially for high-resolution inputs. This is achieved through a modality-specific Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) structure trained with a single autoregressive (AR) objective, which also natively supports dynamic resolutions. Furthermore, we pioneer a multi-scale visual autoregressive mechanism within the Large Language Model (LLM) that drastically reduces decoding steps compared to diffusion-based methods while maintaining state-of-the-art performance. Our findings demonstrate the powerful potential of pure autoregressive modeling as a sufficient and elegant foundation for unified multimodal intelligence. As a result, OneCAT sets a new performance standard, outperforming existing open-source unified multimodal models across benchmarks for multimodal generation, editing, and understanding.

We study inferring a tree-structured representation from a single image for object shading. Prior work typically uses the parametric or measured representation to model shading, which is neither interpretable nor easily editable. We propose using the shade tree representation, which combines basic shading nodes and compositing methods to factorize object surface shading. The shade tree representation enables novice users who are unfamiliar with the physical shading process to edit object shading in an efficient and intuitive manner. A main challenge in inferring the shade tree is that the inference problem involves both the discrete tree structure and the continuous parameters of the tree nodes. We propose a hybrid approach to address this issue. We introduce an auto-regressive inference model to generate a rough estimation of the tree structure and node parameters, and then we fine-tune the inferred shade tree through an optimization algorithm. We show experiments on synthetic images, captured reflectance, real images, and non-realistic vector drawings, allowing downstream applications such as material editing, vectorized shading, and relighting. Project website: https://chen-geng.com/inv-shade-trees

This paper describes the University of Sydney& JD's joint submission of the IWSLT 2021 low resource speech translation task. We participated in the Swahili-English direction and got the best scareBLEU (25.3) score among all the participants. Our constrained system is based on a pipeline framework, i.e. ASR and NMT. We trained our models with the officially provided ASR and MT datasets. The ASR system is based on the open-sourced tool Kaldi and this work mainly explores how to make the most of the NMT models. To reduce the punctuation errors generated by the ASR model, we employ our previous work SlotRefine to train a punctuation correction model. To achieve better translation performance, we explored the most recent effective strategies, including back translation, knowledge distillation, multi-feature reranking and transductive finetuning. For model structure, we tried auto-regressive and non-autoregressive models, respectively. In addition, we proposed two novel pre-train approaches, i.e. de-noising training and bidirectional training to fully exploit the data. Extensive experiments show that adding the above techniques consistently improves the BLEU scores, and the final submission system outperforms the baseline (Transformer ensemble model trained with the original parallel data) by approximately 10.8 BLEU score, achieving the SOTA performance.

Transformer based Large Language Models (LLMs) have been widely used in many fields, and the efficiency of LLM inference becomes hot topic in real applications. However, LLMs are usually complicatedly designed in model structure with massive operations and perform inference in the auto-regressive mode, making it a challenging task to design a system with high efficiency. In this paper, we propose an efficient LLM inference solution with low latency and high throughput. Firstly, we simplify the LLM decoder layer by fusing data movement and element-wise operations to reduce the memory access frequency and lower system latency. We also propose a segment KV cache policy to keep key/value of the request and response tokens in separate physical memory for effective device memory management, helping enlarge the runtime batch size and improve system throughput. A customized Scaled-Dot-Product-Attention kernel is designed to match our fusion policy based on the segment KV cache solution. We implement our LLM inference solution on Intel GPU and publish it publicly. Compared with the standard HuggingFace implementation, the proposed solution achieves up to 7x lower token latency and 27x higher throughput for some popular LLMs on Intel GPU.

Graph generation is a critical task in numerous domains, including molecular design and social network analysis, due to its ability to model complex relationships and structured data. While most modern graph generative models utilize adjacency matrix representations, this work revisits an alternative approach that represents graphs as sequences of node set and edge set. We advocate for this approach due to its efficient encoding of graphs and propose a novel representation. Based on this representation, we introduce the Graph Generative Pre-trained Transformer (G2PT), an auto-regressive model that learns graph structures via next-token prediction. To further exploit G2PT's capabilities as a general-purpose foundation model, we explore fine-tuning strategies for two downstream applications: goal-oriented generation and graph property prediction. We conduct extensive experiments across multiple datasets. Results indicate that G2PT achieves superior generative performance on both generic graph and molecule datasets. Furthermore, G2PT exhibits strong adaptability and versatility in downstream tasks from molecular design to property prediction.

In recent months, Language Models (LMs) have become a part of daily discourse, with focus on OpenAI and the potential of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). Furthermore, the leaking of LLama's weights to the public has led to an influx of innovations demonstrating the impressive capabilities of generative LMs. While we believe that AGI is still a distant goal, we recognize the potential of LMs in solving tasks such as searching complex documents, compiling reports with basic analysis, and providing assistance in problem-solving. In this paper, we propose formalizing the execution model of language models. We investigate current execution models, to find that this formalism has received little attention, and present our contribution: the first formalized execution model for LMs. We introduce a new algorithm for sampling the predictions of LMs, which we use to build a reliable and inspectable execution model. We introduce a low-level language to write "cognitive program" for this execution model. We hope to shed light on the need for execution models for LMs and encourage further research in this area.

Foundation models pre-trained on massive unlabeled datasets have revolutionized natural language and computer vision, exhibiting remarkable generalization capabilities, thus highlighting the importance of pre-training. Yet, efforts in robotics have struggled to achieve similar success, limited by either the need for costly robotic annotations or the lack of representations that effectively model the physical world. In this paper, we introduce ARM4R, an Auto-regressive Robotic Model that leverages low-level 4D Representations learned from human video data to yield a better pre-trained robotic model. Specifically, we focus on utilizing 3D point tracking representations from videos derived by lifting 2D representations into 3D space via monocular depth estimation across time. These 4D representations maintain a shared geometric structure between the points and robot state representations up to a linear transformation, enabling efficient transfer learning from human video data to low-level robotic control. Our experiments show that ARM4R can transfer efficiently from human video data to robotics and consistently improves performance on tasks across various robot environments and configurations.

A variety of Auto-Regressive Video Diffusion Models (ARVDM) have achieved remarkable successes in generating realistic long-form videos. However, theoretical analyses of these models remain scant. In this work, we develop theoretical underpinnings for these models and use our insights to improve the performance of existing models. We first develop Meta-ARVDM, a unified framework of ARVDMs that subsumes most existing methods. Using Meta-ARVDM, we analyze the KL-divergence between the videos generated by Meta-ARVDM and the true videos. Our analysis uncovers two important phenomena inherent to ARVDM -- error accumulation and memory bottleneck. By deriving an information-theoretic impossibility result, we show that the memory bottleneck phenomenon cannot be avoided. To mitigate the memory bottleneck, we design various network structures to explicitly use more past frames. We also achieve a significantly improved trade-off between the mitigation of the memory bottleneck and the inference efficiency by compressing the frames. Experimental results on DMLab and Minecraft validate the efficacy of our methods. Our experiments also demonstrate a Pareto-frontier between the error accumulation and memory bottleneck across different methods.

Modern interactive applications increasingly demand dynamic 3D content, yet the transformation of static 3D models into animated assets constitutes a significant bottleneck in content creation pipelines. While recent advances in generative AI have revolutionized static 3D model creation, rigging and animation continue to depend heavily on expert intervention. We present Puppeteer, a comprehensive framework that addresses both automatic rigging and animation for diverse 3D objects. Our system first predicts plausible skeletal structures via an auto-regressive transformer that introduces a joint-based tokenization strategy for compact representation and a hierarchical ordering methodology with stochastic perturbation that enhances bidirectional learning capabilities. It then infers skinning weights via an attention-based architecture incorporating topology-aware joint attention that explicitly encodes inter-joint relationships based on skeletal graph distances. Finally, we complement these rigging advances with a differentiable optimization-based animation pipeline that generates stable, high-fidelity animations while being computationally more efficient than existing approaches. Extensive evaluations across multiple benchmarks demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art techniques in both skeletal prediction accuracy and skinning quality. The system robustly processes diverse 3D content, ranging from professionally designed game assets to AI-generated shapes, producing temporally coherent animations that eliminate the jittering issues common in existing methods.

When reading long-form text, human cognition is complex and structurized. While large language models (LLMs) process input contexts through a causal and sequential perspective, this approach can potentially limit their ability to handle intricate and complex inputs effectively. To enhance LLM's cognition capability, this paper presents a novel concept of context structurization. Specifically, we transform the plain, unordered contextual sentences into well-ordered and hierarchically structurized elements. By doing so, LLMs can better grasp intricate and extended contexts through precise attention and information-seeking along the organized structures. Extensive evaluations are conducted across various model architectures and sizes (including a series of auto-regressive LLMs as well as BERT-like masking models) on a diverse set of NLP tasks (e.g., context-based question-answering, exhaustive hallucination evaluation, and passage-level dense retrieval). Empirical results show consistent and significant performance gains afforded by a single-round structurization. In particular, we boost the open-sourced LLaMA2-70B model to achieve comparable performance against GPT-3.5-Turbo as the hallucination evaluator. Besides, we show the feasibility of distilling advanced LLMs' language processing abilities to a smaller yet effective StruXGPT-7B to execute structurization, addressing the practicality of our approach. Code is available at https://github.com/alibaba/struxgpt.

User interface modeling is inherently multimodal, which involves several distinct types of data: images, structures and language. The tasks are also diverse, including object detection, language generation and grounding. In this paper, we present VUT, a Versatile UI Transformer that takes multimodal input and simultaneously accomplishes 5 distinct tasks with the same model. Our model consists of a multimodal Transformer encoder that jointly encodes UI images and structures, and performs UI object detection when the UI structures are absent in the input. Our model also consists of an auto-regressive Transformer model that encodes the language input and decodes output, for both question-answering and command grounding with respect to the UI. Our experiments show that for most of the tasks, when trained jointly for multi-tasks, VUT substantially reduces the number of models and footprints needed for performing multiple tasks, while achieving accuracy exceeding or on par with baseline models trained for each individual task.

The past several years have witnessed Variational Auto-Encoder's superiority in various text generation tasks. However, due to the sequential nature of the text, auto-regressive decoders tend to ignore latent variables and then reduce to simple language models, known as the KL vanishing problem, which would further deteriorate when VAE is combined with Transformer-based structures. To ameliorate this problem, we propose DELLA, a novel variational Transformer framework. DELLA learns a series of layer-wise latent variables with each inferred from those of lower layers and tightly coupled with the hidden states by low-rank tensor product. In this way, DELLA forces these posterior latent variables to be fused deeply with the whole computation path and hence incorporate more information. We theoretically demonstrate that our method can be regarded as entangling latent variables to avoid posterior information decrease through layers, enabling DELLA to get higher non-zero KL values even without any annealing or thresholding tricks. Experiments on four unconditional and three conditional generation tasks show that DELLA could better alleviate KL vanishing and improve both quality and diversity compared to several strong baselines.

Recent years have seen a paradigm shift in NLP towards using pretrained language models ({PLM}) for a wide range of tasks. However, there are many difficult design decisions to represent structures (e.g. tagged text, coreference chains) in a way such that they can be captured by PLMs. Prior work on structured prediction with PLMs typically flattens the structured output into a sequence, which limits the quality of structural information being learned and leads to inferior performance compared to classic discriminative models. In this work, we describe an approach to model structures as sequences of actions in an autoregressive manner with PLMs, allowing in-structure dependencies to be learned without any loss. Our approach achieves the new state-of-the-art on all the structured prediction tasks we looked at, namely, named entity recognition, end-to-end relation extraction, and coreference resolution.

Autoregressive models, despite their commendable performance in a myriad of generative tasks, face challenges stemming from their inherently sequential structure. Inference on these models, by design, harnesses a temporal dependency, where the current token's probability distribution is conditioned on preceding tokens. This inherent characteristic severely impedes computational efficiency during inference as a typical inference request can require more than thousands of tokens, where generating each token requires a load of entire model weights, making the inference more memory-bound. The large overhead becomes profound in real deployment where requests arrive randomly, necessitating various generation lengths. Existing solutions, such as dynamic batching and concurrent instances, introduce significant response delays and bandwidth contention, falling short of achieving optimal latency and throughput. To address these shortcomings, we propose Flover -- a temporal fusion framework for efficiently inferring multiple requests in parallel. We deconstruct the general generation pipeline into pre-processing and token generation, and equip the framework with a dedicated work scheduler for fusing the generation process temporally across all requests. By orchestrating the token-level parallelism, Flover exhibits optimal hardware efficiency and significantly spares the system resources. By further employing a fast buffer reordering algorithm that allows memory eviction of finished tasks, it brings over 11x inference speedup on GPT and 16x on LLAMA compared to the cutting-edge solutions provided by NVIDIA FasterTransformer. Crucially, by leveraging the advanced tensor parallel technique, Flover proves efficacious across diverse computational landscapes, from single-GPU setups to distributed scenarios, thereby offering robust performance optimization that adapts to variable use cases.

Knowledge-intensive language tasks require NLP systems to both provide the correct answer and retrieve supporting evidence for it in a given corpus. Autoregressive language models are emerging as the de-facto standard for generating answers, with newer and more powerful systems emerging at an astonishing pace. In this paper we argue that all this (and future) progress can be directly applied to the retrieval problem with minimal intervention to the models' architecture. Previous work has explored ways to partition the search space into hierarchical structures and retrieve documents by autoregressively generating their unique identifier. In this work we propose an alternative that doesn't force any structure in the search space: using all ngrams in a passage as its possible identifiers. This setup allows us to use an autoregressive model to generate and score distinctive ngrams, that are then mapped to full passages through an efficient data structure. Empirically, we show this not only outperforms prior autoregressive approaches but also leads to an average improvement of at least 10 points over more established retrieval solutions for passage-level retrieval on the KILT benchmark, establishing new state-of-the-art downstream performance on some datasets, while using a considerably lighter memory footprint than competing systems. Code and pre-trained models at https://github.com/facebookresearch/SEAL.

Diffusion models have garnered considerable interest in the field of text generation. Several studies have explored text diffusion models with different structures and applied them to various tasks, including named entity recognition and summarization. However, there exists a notable disparity between the "easy-first" text generation process of current diffusion models and the "keyword-first" natural text generation process of humans, which has received limited attention. To bridge this gap, we propose InfoDiffusion, a non-autoregressive text diffusion model. Our approach introduces a "keyinfo-first" generation strategy and incorporates a noise schedule based on the amount of text information. In addition, InfoDiffusion combines self-conditioning with a newly proposed partially noising model structure. Experimental results show that InfoDiffusion outperforms the baseline model in terms of generation quality and diversity, as well as exhibiting higher sampling efficiency.

We introduce SceneScript, a method that directly produces full scene models as a sequence of structured language commands using an autoregressive, token-based approach. Our proposed scene representation is inspired by recent successes in transformers & LLMs, and departs from more traditional methods which commonly describe scenes as meshes, voxel grids, point clouds or radiance fields. Our method infers the set of structured language commands directly from encoded visual data using a scene language encoder-decoder architecture. To train SceneScript, we generate and release a large-scale synthetic dataset called Aria Synthetic Environments consisting of 100k high-quality in-door scenes, with photorealistic and ground-truth annotated renders of egocentric scene walkthroughs. Our method gives state-of-the art results in architectural layout estimation, and competitive results in 3D object detection. Lastly, we explore an advantage for SceneScript, which is the ability to readily adapt to new commands via simple additions to the structured language, which we illustrate for tasks such as coarse 3D object part reconstruction.

We report a flexible multi-modal mechanics language model, MeLM, applied to solve various nonlinear forward and inverse problems, that can deal with a set of instructions, numbers and microstructure data. The framework is applied to various examples including bio-inspired hierarchical honeycomb design, carbon nanotube mechanics, and protein unfolding. In spite of the flexible nature of the model-which allows us to easily incorporate diverse materials, scales, and mechanical features-it performs well across disparate forward and inverse tasks. Based on an autoregressive attention-model, MeLM effectively represents a large multi-particle system consisting of hundreds of millions of neurons, where the interaction potentials are discovered through graph-forming self-attention mechanisms that are then used to identify relationships from emergent structures, while taking advantage of synergies discovered in the training data. We show that the model can solve complex degenerate mechanics design problems and determine novel material architectures across a range of hierarchical levels, providing an avenue for materials discovery and analysis. Looking beyond the demonstrations reported in this paper, we discuss other opportunities in applied mechanics and general considerations about the use of large language models in modeling, design, and analysis that can span a broad spectrum of material properties from mechanical, thermal, optical, to electronic.

The generation of plausible crystal structures is often the first step in predicting the structure and properties of a material from its chemical composition. Quickly generating and predicting inorganic crystal structures is important for the discovery of new materials, which can target applications such as energy or electronic devices. However, most current methods for crystal structure prediction are computationally expensive, slowing the pace of innovation. Seeding structure prediction algorithms with quality generated candidates can overcome a major bottleneck. Here, we introduce CrystaLLM, a methodology for the versatile generation of crystal structures, based on the autoregressive large language modeling (LLM) of the Crystallographic Information File (CIF) format. Trained on millions of CIF files, CrystaLLM focuses on modeling crystal structures through text. CrystaLLM can produce plausible crystal structures for a wide range of inorganic compounds unseen in training, as demonstrated by ab initio simulations. The integration with predictors of formation energy permits the use of a Monte Carlo Tree Search algorithm to improve the generation of meaningful structures. Our approach challenges conventional representations of crystals, and demonstrates the potential of LLMs for learning effective 'world models' of crystal chemistry, which will lead to accelerated discovery and innovation in materials science.

Modern large language models (LLMs) are inherently auto-regressive, requiring input to be serialized into flat sequences regardless of their structural dependencies. This serialization hinders the model's ability to leverage structural inductive biases, especially in tasks such as retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) and reasoning on data with native graph structures, where inter-segment dependencies are crucial. We introduce Graph-KV with the potential to overcome this limitation. Graph-KV leverages the KV-cache of text segments as condensed representations and governs their interaction through structural inductive biases. In this framework, 'target' segments selectively attend only to the KV-caches of their designated 'source' segments, rather than all preceding segments in a serialized sequence. This approach induces a graph-structured block mask, sparsifying attention and enabling a message-passing-like step within the LLM. Furthermore, strategically allocated positional encodings for source and target segments reduce positional bias and context window consumption. We evaluate Graph-KV across three scenarios: (1) seven RAG benchmarks spanning direct inference, multi-hop reasoning, and long-document understanding; (2) Arxiv-QA, a novel academic paper QA task with full-text scientific papers structured as citation ego-graphs; and (3) paper topic classification within a citation network. By effectively reducing positional bias and harnessing structural inductive biases, Graph-KV substantially outperforms baselines, including standard costly sequential encoding, across various settings. Code and the Graph-KV data are publicly available.

Unified generation of sequence and structure for scientific data (e.g., materials, molecules, proteins) is a critical task. Existing approaches primarily rely on either autoregressive sequence models or diffusion models, each offering distinct advantages and facing notable limitations. Autoregressive models, such as GPT, Llama, and Phi-4, have demonstrated remarkable success in natural language generation and have been extended to multimodal tasks (e.g., image, video, and audio) using advanced encoders like VQ-VAE to represent complex modalities as discrete sequences. However, their direct application to scientific domains is challenging due to the high precision requirements and the diverse nature of scientific data. On the other hand, diffusion models excel at generating high-dimensional scientific data, such as protein, molecule, and material structures, with remarkable accuracy. Yet, their inability to effectively model sequences limits their potential as general-purpose multimodal foundation models. To address these challenges, we propose UniGenX, a unified framework that combines autoregressive next-token prediction with conditional diffusion models. This integration leverages the strengths of autoregressive models to ease the training of conditional diffusion models, while diffusion-based generative heads enhance the precision of autoregressive predictions. We validate the effectiveness of UniGenX on material and small molecule generation tasks, achieving a significant leap in state-of-the-art performance for material crystal structure prediction and establishing new state-of-the-art results for small molecule structure prediction, de novo design, and conditional generation. Notably, UniGenX demonstrates significant improvements, especially in handling long sequences for complex structures, showcasing its efficacy as a versatile tool for scientific data generation.

World models serve as essential building blocks toward Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), enabling intelligent agents to predict future states and plan actions by simulating complex physical interactions. However, existing interactive models primarily predict visual observations, thereby neglecting crucial hidden states like geometric structures and spatial coherence. This leads to rapid error accumulation and temporal inconsistency. To address these limitations, we introduce DeepVerse, a novel 4D interactive world model explicitly incorporating geometric predictions from previous timesteps into current predictions conditioned on actions. Experiments demonstrate that by incorporating explicit geometric constraints, DeepVerse captures richer spatio-temporal relationships and underlying physical dynamics. This capability significantly reduces drift and enhances temporal consistency, enabling the model to reliably generate extended future sequences and achieve substantial improvements in prediction accuracy, visual realism, and scene rationality. Furthermore, our method provides an effective solution for geometry-aware memory retrieval, effectively preserving long-term spatial consistency. We validate the effectiveness of DeepVerse across diverse scenarios, establishing its capacity for high-fidelity, long-horizon predictions grounded in geometry-aware dynamics.

We report a flexible language-model based deep learning strategy, applied here to solve complex forward and inverse problems in protein modeling, based on an attention neural network that integrates transformer and graph convolutional architectures in a causal multi-headed graph mechanism, to realize a generative pretrained model. The model is applied to predict secondary structure content (per-residue level and overall content), protein solubility, and sequencing tasks. Further trained on inverse tasks, the model is rendered capable of designing proteins with these properties as target features. The model is formulated as a general framework, completely prompt-based, and can be adapted for a variety of downstream tasks. We find that adding additional tasks yields emergent synergies that the model exploits in improving overall performance, beyond what would be possible by training a model on each dataset alone. Case studies are presented to validate the method, yielding protein designs specifically focused on structural proteins, but also exploring the applicability in the design of soluble, antimicrobial biomaterials. While our model is trained to ultimately perform 8 distinct tasks, with available datasets it can be extended to solve additional problems. In a broader sense, this work illustrates a form of multiscale modeling that relates a set of ultimate building blocks (here, byte-level utf8 characters) to complex output. This materiomic scheme captures complex emergent relationships between universal building block and resulting properties via a synergizing learning capacity to express a set of potentialities embedded in the knowledge used in training, via the interplay of universality and diversity.

We present LARP, a novel video tokenizer designed to overcome limitations in current video tokenization methods for autoregressive (AR) generative models. Unlike traditional patchwise tokenizers that directly encode local visual patches into discrete tokens, LARP introduces a holistic tokenization scheme that gathers information from the visual content using a set of learned holistic queries. This design allows LARP to capture more global and semantic representations, rather than being limited to local patch-level information. Furthermore, it offers flexibility by supporting an arbitrary number of discrete tokens, enabling adaptive and efficient tokenization based on the specific requirements of the task. To align the discrete token space with downstream AR generation tasks, LARP integrates a lightweight AR transformer as a training-time prior model that predicts the next token on its discrete latent space. By incorporating the prior model during training, LARP learns a latent space that is not only optimized for video reconstruction but is also structured in a way that is more conducive to autoregressive generation. Moreover, this process defines a sequential order for the discrete tokens, progressively pushing them toward an optimal configuration during training, ensuring smoother and more accurate AR generation at inference time. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate LARP's strong performance, achieving state-of-the-art FVD on the UCF101 class-conditional video generation benchmark. LARP enhances the compatibility of AR models with videos and opens up the potential to build unified high-fidelity multimodal large language models (MLLMs).

State of the art (SOTA) neural text to speech (TTS) models can generate natural-sounding synthetic voices. These models are characterized by large memory footprints and substantial number of operations due to the long-standing focus on speech quality with cloud inference in mind. Neural TTS models are generally not designed to perform standalone speech syntheses on resource-constrained and no Internet access edge devices. In this work, an efficient neural TTS called EfficientSpeech that synthesizes speech on an ARM CPU in real-time is proposed. EfficientSpeech uses a shallow non-autoregressive pyramid-structure transformer forming a U-Network. EfficientSpeech has 266k parameters and consumes 90 MFLOPS only or about 1% of the size and amount of computation in modern compact models such as Mixer-TTS. EfficientSpeech achieves an average mel generation real-time factor of 104.3 on an RPi4. Human evaluation shows only a slight degradation in audio quality as compared to FastSpeech2.

In this work, we propose DiffWave, a versatile diffusion probabilistic model for conditional and unconditional waveform generation. The model is non-autoregressive, and converts the white noise signal into structured waveform through a Markov chain with a constant number of steps at synthesis. It is efficiently trained by optimizing a variant of variational bound on the data likelihood. DiffWave produces high-fidelity audios in different waveform generation tasks, including neural vocoding conditioned on mel spectrogram, class-conditional generation, and unconditional generation. We demonstrate that DiffWave matches a strong WaveNet vocoder in terms of speech quality (MOS: 4.44 versus 4.43), while synthesizing orders of magnitude faster. In particular, it significantly outperforms autoregressive and GAN-based waveform models in the challenging unconditional generation task in terms of audio quality and sample diversity from various automatic and human evaluations.

In this work, we propose Dimple, the first Discrete Diffusion Multimodal Large Language Model (DMLLM). We observe that training with a purely discrete diffusion approach leads to significant training instability, suboptimal performance, and severe length bias issues. To address these challenges, we design a novel training paradigm that combines an initial autoregressive phase with a subsequent diffusion phase. This approach yields the Dimple-7B model, trained on the same dataset and using a similar training pipeline as LLaVA-NEXT. Dimple-7B ultimately surpasses LLaVA-NEXT in performance by 3.9%, demonstrating that DMLLM can achieve performance comparable to that of autoregressive models. To improve inference efficiency, we propose a decoding strategy termed confident decoding, which dynamically adjusts the number of tokens generated at each step, significantly reducing the number of generation iterations. In autoregressive models, the number of forward iterations during generation equals the response length. With confident decoding, however, the number of iterations needed by Dimple is even only text{response length}{3}. We also re-implement the prefilling technique in autoregressive models and demonstrate that it does not significantly impact performance on most benchmark evaluations, while offering a speedup of 1.5x to 7x. Additionally, we explore Dimple's capability to precisely control its response using structure priors. These priors enable structured responses in a manner distinct from instruction-based or chain-of-thought prompting, and allow fine-grained control over response format and length, which is difficult to achieve in autoregressive models. Overall, this work validates the feasibility and advantages of DMLLM and enhances its inference efficiency and controllability. Code and models are available at https://github.com/yu-rp/Dimple.

In this work, we propose WaveFlow, a small-footprint generative flow for raw audio, which is directly trained with maximum likelihood. It handles the long-range structure of 1-D waveform with a dilated 2-D convolutional architecture, while modeling the local variations using expressive autoregressive functions. WaveFlow provides a unified view of likelihood-based models for 1-D data, including WaveNet and WaveGlow as special cases. It generates high-fidelity speech as WaveNet, while synthesizing several orders of magnitude faster as it only requires a few sequential steps to generate very long waveforms with hundreds of thousands of time-steps. Furthermore, it can significantly reduce the likelihood gap that has existed between autoregressive models and flow-based models for efficient synthesis. Finally, our small-footprint WaveFlow has only 5.91M parameters, which is 15times smaller than WaveGlow. It can generate 22.05 kHz high-fidelity audio 42.6times faster than real-time (at a rate of 939.3 kHz) on a V100 GPU without engineered inference kernels.

Large language models (LLMs) rely on key-value (KV) caches for efficient autoregressive decoding; however, cache size grows linearly with context length and model depth, becoming a major bottleneck in long-context inference. Prior KV cache compression methods either enforce rigid heuristics, disrupt tensor layouts with per-attention-head variability, or require specialized compute kernels. We propose a simple, yet effective, KV cache compression framework based on attention-guided, layer-adaptive composite tokens. Our method aggregates attention scores to estimate token importance, selects head-specific tokens independently, and aligns them into composite tokens that respect the uniform cache structure required by existing inference engines. A global allocation mechanism further adapts retention budgets across layers, assigning more capacity to layers with informative tokens. This approach achieves significant memory reduction while preserving accuracy, consistently outperforming prior structured and semi-structured methods. Crucially, our approach remains fully compatible with standard inference pipelines, offering a practical and scalable solution for efficient long-context LLM deployment.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

We present Probabilistic Structure Integration (PSI), a system for learning richly controllable and flexibly promptable world models from data. PSI consists of a three-step cycle. The first step, Probabilistic prediction, involves building a probabilistic graphical model Psi of the data, in the form of a random-access autoregressive sequence model. Psi supports a complete set of learned conditional distributions describing the dependence of any variables in the data on any other set of variables. In step 2, Structure extraction, we show how to extract underlying low-dimensional properties in the data, corresponding to a diverse set of meaningful "intermediate structures", in a zero-shot fashion via causal inference on Psi. Step 3, Integration, completes the cycle by converting these structures into new token types that are then continually mixed back into the training diet as conditioning signals and prediction targets. Each such cycle augments the capabilities of Psi, both allowing it to model the underlying data better, and creating new control handles -- akin to an LLM-like universal prompting language. We train an instance of Psi on 1.4 trillion tokens of internet video data; we use it to perform a variety of useful video prediction and understanding inferences; we extract state-of-the-art optical flow, self-supervised depth and object segmentation; and we use these structures to support a full cycle of predictive improvements.

In this paper we propose a novel model for unconditional audio generation based on generating one audio sample at a time. We show that our model, which profits from combining memory-less modules, namely autoregressive multilayer perceptrons, and stateful recurrent neural networks in a hierarchical structure is able to capture underlying sources of variations in the temporal sequences over very long time spans, on three datasets of different nature. Human evaluation on the generated samples indicate that our model is preferred over competing models. We also show how each component of the model contributes to the exhibited performance.

Neural waveform models such as the WaveNet are used in many recent text-to-speech systems, but the original WaveNet is quite slow in waveform generation because of its autoregressive (AR) structure. Although faster non-AR models were recently reported, they may be prohibitively complicated due to the use of a distilling training method and the blend of other disparate training criteria. This study proposes a non-AR neural source-filter waveform model that can be directly trained using spectrum-based training criteria and the stochastic gradient descent method. Given the input acoustic features, the proposed model first uses a source module to generate a sine-based excitation signal and then uses a filter module to transform the excitation signal into the output speech waveform. Our experiments demonstrated that the proposed model generated waveforms at least 100 times faster than the AR WaveNet and the quality of its synthetic speech is close to that of speech generated by the AR WaveNet. Ablation test results showed that both the sine-wave excitation signal and the spectrum-based training criteria were essential to the performance of the proposed model.

Spider webs are incredible biological structures, comprising thin but strong silk filament and arranged into complex hierarchical architectures with striking mechanical properties (e.g., lightweight but high strength, achieving diverse mechanical responses). While simple 2D orb webs can easily be mimicked, the modeling and synthesis of 3D-based web structures remain challenging, partly due to the rich set of design features. Here we provide a detailed analysis of the heterogenous graph structures of spider webs, and use deep learning as a way to model and then synthesize artificial, bio-inspired 3D web structures. The generative AI models are conditioned based on key geometric parameters (including average edge length, number of nodes, average node degree, and others). To identify graph construction principles, we use inductive representation sampling of large experimentally determined spider web graphs, to yield a dataset that is used to train three conditional generative models: 1) An analog diffusion model inspired by nonequilibrium thermodynamics, with sparse neighbor representation, 2) a discrete diffusion model with full neighbor representation, and 3) an autoregressive transformer architecture with full neighbor representation. All three models are scalable, produce complex, de novo bio-inspired spider web mimics, and successfully construct graphs that meet the design objectives. We further propose algorithm that assembles web samples produced by the generative models into larger-scale structures based on a series of geometric design targets, including helical and parametric shapes, mimicking, and extending natural design principles towards integration with diverging engineering objectives. Several webs are manufactured using 3D printing and tested to assess mechanical properties.

Recent research on integrating Large Language Models (LLMs) with Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) typically follows two approaches: LLM-centered models, which convert graph data into tokens for LLM processing, and GNN-centered models, which use LLMs to encode text features into node and edge representations for GNN input. LLM-centered models often struggle to capture graph structures effectively, while GNN-centered models compress variable-length textual data into fixed-size vectors, limiting their ability to understand complex semantics. Additionally, GNN-centered approaches require converting tasks into a uniform, manually-designed format, restricting them to classification tasks and preventing language output. To address these limitations, we introduce a new architecture that deeply integrates GNN with LLM, featuring three key innovations: (1) Structure-Aware Transformers, which incorporate GNN's message-passing capabilities directly into LLM's transformer layers, allowing simultaneous processing of textual and structural information and generating outputs from both GNN and LLM; (2) Graph-Text Cross-Attention, which processes full, uncompressed text from graph nodes and edges, ensuring complete semantic integration; and (3) GNN-LLM Twin Predictor, enabling LLM's flexible autoregressive generation alongside GNN's scalable one-pass prediction. GL-Fusion achieves outstand performance on various tasks. Notably, it achieves state-of-the-art performance on OGBN-Arxiv and OGBG-Code2.

The creation of 3D assets with explicit, editable part structures is crucial for advancing interactive applications, yet most generative methods produce only monolithic shapes, limiting their utility. We introduce OmniPart, a novel framework for part-aware 3D object generation designed to achieve high semantic decoupling among components while maintaining robust structural cohesion. OmniPart uniquely decouples this complex task into two synergistic stages: (1) an autoregressive structure planning module generates a controllable, variable-length sequence of 3D part bounding boxes, critically guided by flexible 2D part masks that allow for intuitive control over part decomposition without requiring direct correspondences or semantic labels; and (2) a spatially-conditioned rectified flow model, efficiently adapted from a pre-trained holistic 3D generator, synthesizes all 3D parts simultaneously and consistently within the planned layout. Our approach supports user-defined part granularity, precise localization, and enables diverse downstream applications. Extensive experiments demonstrate that OmniPart achieves state-of-the-art performance, paving the way for more interpretable, editable, and versatile 3D content.

We introduce SPAFormer, an innovative model designed to overcome the combinatorial explosion challenge in the 3D Part Assembly (3D-PA) task. This task requires accurate prediction of each part's poses in sequential steps. As the number of parts increases, the possible assembly combinations increase exponentially, leading to a combinatorial explosion that severely hinders the efficacy of 3D-PA. SPAFormer addresses this problem by leveraging weak constraints from assembly sequences, effectively reducing the solution space's complexity. Since the sequence of parts conveys construction rules similar to sentences structured through words, our model explores both parallel and autoregressive generation. We further strengthen SPAFormer through knowledge enhancement strategies that utilize the attributes of parts and their sequence information, enabling it to capture the inherent assembly pattern and relationships among sequentially ordered parts. We also construct a more challenging benchmark named PartNet-Assembly covering 21 varied categories to more comprehensively validate the effectiveness of SPAFormer. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superior generalization capabilities of SPAFormer, particularly with multi-tasking and in scenarios requiring long-horizon assembly. Code is available at https://github.com/xuboshen/SPAFormer.

We performed variability analysis of the multiwavelength light curves for the flat-spectrum radio quasar PKS 0727-11. Using the generalized Lomb-Scargle periodogram, we identified a possible quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) of sim 168.6 days (persisted for 6 cycles, with a significance of 3.8sigma) in the gamma-ray light curve during the flare period (MJD 54687-55738). It is the first time that periodic variations have been detected in this source, and further supported by other methods: weighted wavelet z-transform, phase dispersion minimization, REDFIT, autoregressive integrated moving average model, and structure function analysis. Cross-correlation analysis shows that there is a strong correlation between multi-band light variations, indicating that gamma-ray and radio flares may originate from the same disturbance, and the distance between the emission regions of gamma-ray and radio flares is calculated based on the time lag. We demonstrate that QPO arising from the non-ballistic helical jet motion driven by the orbital motion in a supermassive binary black hole is a plausible physical explanation. In this scenario, the estimated mass of the primary black hole is Msim3.66times10^8-5.79times10^{9}M_odot.

Autoregressive models have achieved remarkable success across various domains, yet their performance in 3D shape generation lags significantly behind that of diffusion models. In this paper, we introduce OctGPT, a novel multiscale autoregressive model for 3D shape generation that dramatically improves the efficiency and performance of prior 3D autoregressive approaches, while rivaling or surpassing state-of-the-art diffusion models. Our method employs a serialized octree representation to efficiently capture the hierarchical and spatial structures of 3D shapes. Coarse geometry is encoded via octree structures, while fine-grained details are represented by binary tokens generated using a vector quantized variational autoencoder (VQVAE), transforming 3D shapes into compact multiscale binary sequences suitable for autoregressive prediction. To address the computational challenges of handling long sequences, we incorporate octree-based transformers enhanced with 3D rotary positional encodings, scale-specific embeddings, and token-parallel generation schemes. These innovations reduce training time by 13 folds and generation time by 69 folds, enabling the efficient training of high-resolution 3D shapes, e.g.,1024^3, on just four NVIDIA 4090 GPUs only within days. OctGPT showcases exceptional versatility across various tasks, including text-, sketch-, and image-conditioned generation, as well as scene-level synthesis involving multiple objects. Extensive experiments demonstrate that OctGPT accelerates convergence and improves generation quality over prior autoregressive methods, offering a new paradigm for high-quality, scalable 3D content creation.

Autoregressive modeling has been a huge success in the field of natural language processing (NLP). Recently, autoregressive models have emerged as a significant area of focus in computer vision, where they excel in producing high-quality visual content. Autoregressive models in NLP typically operate on subword tokens. However, the representation strategy in computer vision can vary in different levels, i.e., pixel-level, token-level, or scale-level, reflecting the diverse and hierarchical nature of visual data compared to the sequential structure of language. This survey comprehensively examines the literature on autoregressive models applied to vision. To improve readability for researchers from diverse research backgrounds, we start with preliminary sequence representation and modeling in vision. Next, we divide the fundamental frameworks of visual autoregressive models into three general sub-categories, including pixel-based, token-based, and scale-based models based on the strategy of representation. We then explore the interconnections between autoregressive models and other generative models. Furthermore, we present a multi-faceted categorization of autoregressive models in computer vision, including image generation, video generation, 3D generation, and multi-modal generation. We also elaborate on their applications in diverse domains, including emerging domains such as embodied AI and 3D medical AI, with about 250 related references. Finally, we highlight the current challenges to autoregressive models in vision with suggestions about potential research directions. We have also set up a Github repository to organize the papers included in this survey at: https://github.com/ChaofanTao/Autoregressive-Models-in-Vision-Survey.

Autoregressive models have emerged as a powerful generative paradigm for visual generation. The current de-facto standard of next token prediction commonly operates over a single-scale sequence of dense image tokens, and is incapable of utilizing global context especially for early tokens prediction. In this paper, we introduce a new autoregressive design to model a hierarchy from a few low-resolution image tokens to the typical dense image tokens, and delve into a thorough hierarchical dependency across multi-scale image tokens. Technically, we present a Hierarchical Masked Autoregressive models (Hi-MAR) that pivot on low-resolution image tokens to trigger hierarchical autoregressive modeling in a multi-phase manner. Hi-MAR learns to predict a few image tokens in low resolution, functioning as intermediary pivots to reflect global structure, in the first phase. Such pivots act as the additional guidance to strengthen the next autoregressive modeling phase by shaping global structural awareness of typical dense image tokens. A new Diffusion Transformer head is further devised to amplify the global context among all tokens for mask token prediction. Extensive evaluations on both class-conditional and text-to-image generation tasks demonstrate that Hi-MAR outperforms typical AR baselines, while requiring fewer computational costs. Code is available at https://github.com/HiDream-ai/himar.

Autoregressive (AR) models have achieved unified and strong performance across both visual understanding and image generation tasks. However, removing undesired concepts from AR models while maintaining overall generation quality remains an open challenge. In this paper, we propose Erasure Autoregressive Model (EAR), a fine-tuning method for effective and utility-preserving concept erasure in AR models. Specifically, we introduce Windowed Gradient Accumulation (WGA) strategy to align patch-level decoding with erasure objectives, and Thresholded Loss Masking (TLM) strategy to protect content unrelated to the target concept during fine-tuning. Furthermore, we propose a novel benchmark, Erase Concept Generator and Visual Filter (ECGVF), aim at provide a more rigorous and comprehensive foundation for evaluating concept erasure in AR models. Specifically, we first employ structured templates across diverse large language models (LLMs) to pre-generate a large-scale corpus of target-replacement concept prompt pairs. Subsequently, we generate images from these prompts and subject them to rigorous filtering via a visual classifier to ensure concept fidelity and alignment. Extensive experimental results conducted on the ECGVF benchmark with the AR model Janus-Pro demonstrate that EAR achieves marked improvements in both erasure effectiveness and model utility preservation. Code is available at: https://github.com/immc-lab/ear/

Pre-trained encoder-decoder transformer architectures have become increasingly popular recently with the advent of T5 models. T5 has also become more favorable over other architectures like BERT due to the amount of data that it is pre-trained on, increased scale of model parameter sizes and easy applicability to a diverse set of tasks due to the generative nature of the model. While being able to generalize to a wide variety of tasks, it is not clear that encoder-decoder architectures are the most efficient for fine-tuning tasks that don't require auto-regressive decoding. In this work, we study fine-tuning pre-trained encoder-decoder models for tasks such as classification, multi-label classification, and structured prediction. We propose EncT5, a framework for these problems, and illustrate instantiations for these tasks. Our experiment results show that EncT5 has advantages over T5 such as efficiency and usability out performs BERT when evaluated on publicly available pre-trained checkpoints.

Language models have recently been shown capable of performing regression tasks wherein numeric predictions are represented as decoded strings. In this work, we provide theoretical grounds for this capability and furthermore investigate the utility of causal auto-regressive sequence models when they are applied to any feature representation. We find that, despite being trained in the usual way - for next-token prediction via cross-entropy loss - decoding-based regression is as performant as traditional approaches for tabular regression tasks, while being flexible enough to capture arbitrary distributions, such as in the task of density estimation.

Real-world data is high-dimensional: a book, image, or musical performance can easily contain hundreds of thousands of elements even after compression. However, the most commonly used autoregressive models, Transformers, are prohibitively expensive to scale to the number of inputs and layers needed to capture this long-range structure. We develop Perceiver AR, an autoregressive, modality-agnostic architecture which uses cross-attention to map long-range inputs to a small number of latents while also maintaining end-to-end causal masking. Perceiver AR can directly attend to over a hundred thousand tokens, enabling practical long-context density estimation without the need for hand-crafted sparsity patterns or memory mechanisms. When trained on images or music, Perceiver AR generates outputs with clear long-term coherence and structure. Our architecture also obtains state-of-the-art likelihood on long-sequence benchmarks, including 64 x 64 ImageNet images and PG-19 books.

Creating machines capable of understanding the world in 3D is essential in assisting designers that build and edit 3D environments and robots navigating and interacting within a three-dimensional space. Inspired by advances in language and image modeling, we investigate the potential of autoregressive models for a new modality: structured 3D scenes. To this end, we propose a unified LLM framework that aligns language, images, and 3D scenes and provide a detailed ''cookbook'' outlining critical design choices for achieving optimal training and performance addressing key questions related to data representation, modality-specific objectives, and more. We evaluate performance across four core 3D tasks -- rendering, recognition, instruction-following, and question-answering -- and four 3D datasets, synthetic and real-world. We extend our approach to reconstruct complex 3D object shapes by enriching our 3D modality with quantized shape encodings, and show our model's effectiveness on real-world 3D object recognition tasks. Project webpage: https://glab-caltech.github.io/kyvo/

Advanced autoregressive models have reshaped multimodal AI. However, their transformative potential in medical imaging remains largely untapped due to the absence of a unified visual tokenizer -- one capable of capturing fine-grained visual structures for faithful image reconstruction and realistic image synthesis, as well as rich semantics for accurate diagnosis and image interpretation. To this end, we present MedITok, the first unified tokenizer tailored for medical images, encoding both low-level structural details and high-level clinical semantics within a unified latent space. To balance these competing objectives, we introduce a novel two-stage training framework: a visual representation alignment stage that cold-starts the tokenizer reconstruction learning with a visual semantic constraint, followed by a textual semantic representation alignment stage that infuses detailed clinical semantics into the latent space. Trained on the meticulously collected large-scale dataset with over 30 million medical images and 2 million image-caption pairs, MedITok achieves state-of-the-art performance on more than 30 datasets across 9 imaging modalities and 4 different tasks. By providing a unified token space for autoregressive modeling, MedITok supports a wide range of tasks in clinical diagnostics and generative healthcare applications. Model and code will be made publicly available at: https://github.com/Masaaki-75/meditok.

We address two challenges of probabilistic topic modelling in order to better estimate the probability of a word in a given context, i.e., P(word|context): (1) No Language Structure in Context: Probabilistic topic models ignore word order by summarizing a given context as a "bag-of-word" and consequently the semantics of words in the context is lost. The LSTM-LM learns a vector-space representation of each word by accounting for word order in local collocation patterns and models complex characteristics of language (e.g., syntax and semantics), while the TM simultaneously learns a latent representation from the entire document and discovers the underlying thematic structure. We unite two complementary paradigms of learning the meaning of word occurrences by combining a TM (e.g., DocNADE) and a LM in a unified probabilistic framework, named as ctx-DocNADE. (2) Limited Context and/or Smaller training corpus of documents: In settings with a small number of word occurrences (i.e., lack of context) in short text or data sparsity in a corpus of few documents, the application of TMs is challenging. We address this challenge by incorporating external knowledge into neural autoregressive topic models via a language modelling approach: we use word embeddings as input of a LSTM-LM with the aim to improve the word-topic mapping on a smaller and/or short-text corpus. The proposed DocNADE extension is named as ctx-DocNADEe. We present novel neural autoregressive topic model variants coupled with neural LMs and embeddings priors that consistently outperform state-of-the-art generative TMs in terms of generalization (perplexity), interpretability (topic coherence) and applicability (retrieval and classification) over 6 long-text and 8 short-text datasets from diverse domains.

Context-aware STR methods typically use internal autoregressive (AR) language models (LM). Inherent limitations of AR models motivated two-stage methods which employ an external LM. The conditional independence of the external LM on the input image may cause it to erroneously rectify correct predictions, leading to significant inefficiencies. Our method, PARSeq, learns an ensemble of internal AR LMs with shared weights using Permutation Language Modeling. It unifies context-free non-AR and context-aware AR inference, and iterative refinement using bidirectional context. Using synthetic training data, PARSeq achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) results in STR benchmarks (91.9% accuracy) and more challenging datasets. It establishes new SOTA results (96.0% accuracy) when trained on real data. PARSeq is optimal on accuracy vs parameter count, FLOPS, and latency because of its simple, unified structure and parallel token processing. Due to its extensive use of attention, it is robust on arbitrarily-oriented text which is common in real-world images. Code, pretrained weights, and data are available at: https://github.com/baudm/parseq.

Autoregressive language models demonstrate excellent performance in various scenarios. However, the inference efficiency is limited by its one-step-one-word generation mode, which has become a pressing problem recently as the models become increasingly larger. Speculative decoding employs a "draft and then verify" mechanism to allow multiple tokens to be generated in one step, realizing lossless acceleration. Existing methods mainly adopt fixed heuristic draft structures, which fail to adapt to different situations to maximize the acceptance length during verification. To alleviate this dilemma, we proposed OPT-Tree, an algorithm to construct adaptive and scalable draft trees. It searches the optimal tree structure that maximizes the mathematical expectation of the acceptance length in each decoding step. Experimental results reveal that OPT-Tree outperforms the existing draft structures and achieves a speed-up ratio of up to 3.2 compared with autoregressive decoding. If the draft model is powerful enough and the node budget is sufficient, it can generate more than ten tokens in a single step. Our code is available at https://github.com/Jikai0Wang/OPT-Tree.

Autoregressive transformer language models (LMs) possess strong syntactic abilities, often successfully handling phenomena from agreement to NPI licensing. However, the features they use to incrementally process language inputs are not well understood. In this paper, we fill this gap by studying the mechanisms underlying garden path sentence processing in LMs. We ask: (1) Do LMs use syntactic features or shallow heuristics to perform incremental sentence processing? (2) Do LMs represent only one potential interpretation, or multiple? and (3) Do LMs reanalyze or repair their initial incorrect representations? To address these questions, we use sparse autoencoders to identify interpretable features that determine which continuation - and thus which reading - of a garden path sentence the LM prefers. We find that while many important features relate to syntactic structure, some reflect syntactically irrelevant heuristics. Moreover, while most active features correspond to one reading of the sentence, some features correspond to the other, suggesting that LMs assign weight to both possibilities simultaneously. Finally, LMs do not re-use features from garden path sentence processing to answer follow-up questions.

[This paper was initially published in PHME conference in 2016, selected for further publication in International Journal of Prognostics and Health Management.] This paper describes an Autoregressive Partially-hidden Markov model (ARPHMM) for fault detection and prognostics of equipments based on sensors' data. It is a particular dynamic Bayesian network that allows to represent the dynamics of a system by means of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and an autoregressive (AR) process. The Markov chain assumes that the system is switching back and forth between internal states while the AR process ensures a temporal coherence on sensor measurements. A sound learning procedure of standard ARHMM based on maximum likelihood allows to iteratively estimate all parameters simultaneously. This paper suggests a modification of the learning procedure considering that one may have prior knowledge about the structure which becomes partially hidden. The integration of the prior is based on the Theory of Weighted Distributions which is compatible with the Expectation-Maximization algorithm in the sense that the convergence properties are still satisfied. We show how to apply this model to estimate the remaining useful life based on health indicators. The autoregressive parameters can indeed be used for prediction while the latent structure can be used to get information about the degradation level. The interest of the proposed method for prognostics and health assessment is demonstrated on CMAPSS datasets.

Text-to-video generation poses significant challenges due to the inherent complexity of video data, which spans both temporal and spatial dimensions. It introduces additional redundancy, abrupt variations, and a domain gap between language and vision tokens while generation. Addressing these challenges requires an effective video tokenizer that can efficiently encode video data while preserving essential semantic and spatiotemporal information, serving as a critical bridge between text and vision. Inspired by the observation in VQ-VAE-2 and workflows of traditional animation, we propose HiTVideo for text-to-video generation with hierarchical tokenizers. It utilizes a 3D causal VAE with a multi-layer discrete token framework, encoding video content into hierarchically structured codebooks. Higher layers capture semantic information with higher compression, while lower layers focus on fine-grained spatiotemporal details, striking a balance between compression efficiency and reconstruction quality. Our approach efficiently encodes longer video sequences (e.g., 8 seconds, 64 frames), reducing bits per pixel (bpp) by approximately 70\% compared to baseline tokenizers, while maintaining competitive reconstruction quality. We explore the trade-offs between compression and reconstruction, while emphasizing the advantages of high-compressed semantic tokens in text-to-video tasks. HiTVideo aims to address the potential limitations of existing video tokenizers in text-to-video generation tasks, striving for higher compression ratios and simplify LLMs modeling under language guidance, offering a scalable and promising framework for advancing text to video generation. Demo page: https://ziqinzhou66.github.io/project/HiTVideo.

By leveraging the generative priors from pre-trained text-to-image diffusion models, significant progress has been made in real-world image super-resolution (Real-ISR). However, these methods tend to generate inaccurate and unnatural reconstructions in complex and/or heavily degraded scenes, primarily due to their limited perception and understanding capability of the input low-quality image. To address these limitations, we propose, for the first time to our knowledge, to adapt the pre-trained autoregressive multimodal model such as Lumina-mGPT into a robust Real-ISR model, namely PURE, which Perceives and Understands the input low-quality image, then REstores its high-quality counterpart. Specifically, we implement instruction tuning on Lumina-mGPT to perceive the image degradation level and the relationships between previously generated image tokens and the next token, understand the image content by generating image semantic descriptions, and consequently restore the image by generating high-quality image tokens autoregressively with the collected information. In addition, we reveal that the image token entropy reflects the image structure and present a entropy-based Top-k sampling strategy to optimize the local structure of the image during inference. Experimental results demonstrate that PURE preserves image content while generating realistic details, especially in complex scenes with multiple objects, showcasing the potential of autoregressive multimodal generative models for robust Real-ISR. The model and code will be available at https://github.com/nonwhy/PURE.

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) (Ho et al. 2020) have shown impressive results on image and waveform generation in continuous state spaces. Here, we introduce Discrete Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (D3PMs), diffusion-like generative models for discrete data that generalize the multinomial diffusion model of Hoogeboom et al. 2021, by going beyond corruption processes with uniform transition probabilities. This includes corruption with transition matrices that mimic Gaussian kernels in continuous space, matrices based on nearest neighbors in embedding space, and matrices that introduce absorbing states. The third allows us to draw a connection between diffusion models and autoregressive and mask-based generative models. We show that the choice of transition matrix is an important design decision that leads to improved results in image and text domains. We also introduce a new loss function that combines the variational lower bound with an auxiliary cross entropy loss. For text, this model class achieves strong results on character-level text generation while scaling to large vocabularies on LM1B. On the image dataset CIFAR-10, our models approach the sample quality and exceed the log-likelihood of the continuous-space DDPM model.

Humans have a powerful and mysterious capacity to reason. By working through a series of purely mental steps, we can make inferences we would not be capable of making directly -- despite the fact that we get no additional data from the world. Similarly, when large language models generate a series of intermediate steps (a chain of thought) before answering a question, they often produce better answers than they otherwise would. We investigate why and how chain-of-thought reasoning is useful in language models, testing the hypothesis that reasoning is effective when training data consists of local clusters of variables that influence each other strongly. These training conditions enable the chaining of accurate local inferences in order to estimate relationships between variables that were not seen together in training. We prove that there will exist a "reasoning gap", where reasoning through intermediate variables improves inference, for the simple case of an autoregressive density estimator trained on local samples from a chain-structured probabilistic model. We then test our hypothesis empirically in more complex models, training an autoregressive language model on samples from Bayes nets but only including a subset of variables in each sample. We test language models' ability to match conditional probabilities with and without intermediate reasoning steps, finding that intermediate steps are only helpful when the training data is locally structured with respect to dependencies between variables and that the combination of locally-structured observations and reasoning is much more data-efficient than training on all variables. Our results illustrate how the effectiveness of reasoning step by step is rooted in the local statistical structure of the training data.

In this paper, we propose a novel method for joint entity and relation extraction from unstructured text by framing it as a conditional sequence generation problem. In contrast to conventional generative information extraction models that are left-to-right token-level generators, our approach is span-based. It generates a linearized graph where nodes represent text spans and edges represent relation triplets. Our method employs a transformer encoder-decoder architecture with pointing mechanism on a dynamic vocabulary of spans and relation types. Our model can capture the structural characteristics and boundaries of entities and relations through span representations while simultaneously grounding the generated output in the original text thanks to the pointing mechanism. Evaluation on benchmark datasets validates the effectiveness of our approach, demonstrating competitive results. Code is available at https://github.com/urchade/ATG.

Agentic task-solving with Large Language Models (LLMs) requires multi-turn, multi-step interactions, often involving complex function calls and dynamic user-agent exchanges. Existing simulation-based data generation methods for such scenarios rely heavily on costly autoregressive interactions between multiple LLM agents, thereby limiting real-world performance of agentic tasks. In this paper, we propose a novel Non-Autoregressive Iterative Generation framework, called ToolACE-MT, for constructing high-quality multi-turn agentic dialogues. ToolACE-MT generates full conversational trajectories through three stages: coarse-grained initialization, iterative refinement, and offline verification. The initialization phase builds a structurally complete yet semantically coarse dialogue skeleton; the iterative refinement phase introduces realistic complexities and continued refinement via mask-and-fill operations; and the offline verification phase ensures correctness and coherence via rule- and model-based checks. Experiments demonstrate that ToolACE-MT enables efficient, effective and generalizable agentic data generation, offering a new paradigm for high-quality data construction in tool-augmented LLM scenarios.

Logic synthesis, a critical stage in electronic design automation (EDA), optimizes gate-level circuits to minimize power consumption and area occupancy in integrated circuits (ICs). Traditional logic synthesis tools rely on human-designed heuristics, often yielding suboptimal results. Although differentiable architecture search (DAS) has shown promise in generating circuits from truth tables, it faces challenges such as high computational complexity, convergence to local optima, and extensive hyperparameter tuning. Consequently, we propose a novel approach integrating conditional generative models with DAS for circuit generation. Our approach first introduces CircuitVQ, a circuit tokenizer trained based on our Circuit AutoEncoder We then develop CircuitAR, a masked autoregressive model leveraging CircuitVQ as the tokenizer. CircuitAR can generate preliminary circuit structures from truth tables, which guide DAS in producing functionally equivalent circuits. Notably, we observe the scalability and emergent capability in generating complex circuit structures of our CircuitAR models. Extensive experiments also show the superior performance of our method. This research bridges the gap between probabilistic generative models and precise circuit generation, offering a robust solution for logic synthesis.

Molecular structure elucidation from spectra is a foundational problem in chemistry, with profound implications for compound identification, synthesis, and drug development. Traditional methods rely heavily on expert interpretation and lack scalability. Pioneering machine learning methods have introduced retrieval-based strategies, but their reliance on finite libraries limits generalization to novel molecules. Generative models offer a promising alternative, yet most adopt autoregressive SMILES-based architectures that overlook 3D geometry and struggle to integrate diverse spectral modalities. In this work, we present DiffSpectra, a generative framework that directly infers both 2D and 3D molecular structures from multi-modal spectral data using diffusion models. DiffSpectra formulates structure elucidation as a conditional generation process. Its denoising network is parameterized by Diffusion Molecule Transformer, an SE(3)-equivariant architecture that integrates topological and geometric information. Conditioning is provided by SpecFormer, a transformer-based spectral encoder that captures intra- and inter-spectral dependencies from multi-modal spectra. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DiffSpectra achieves high accuracy in structure elucidation, recovering exact structures with 16.01% top-1 accuracy and 96.86% top-20 accuracy through sampling. The model benefits significantly from 3D geometric modeling, SpecFormer pre-training, and multi-modal conditioning. These results highlight the effectiveness of spectrum-conditioned diffusion modeling in addressing the challenge of molecular structure elucidation. To our knowledge, DiffSpectra is the first framework to unify multi-modal spectral reasoning and joint 2D/3D generative modeling for de novo molecular structure elucidation.

Recently, end-to-end models have been widely used in automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems. Two of the most representative approaches are connectionist temporal classification (CTC) and attention-based encoder-decoder (AED) models. Autoregressive transformers, variants of AED, adopt an autoregressive mechanism for token generation and thus are relatively slow during inference. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of a CTC Alignment-based Single-Step Non-Autoregressive Transformer (CASS-NAT) for end-to-end ASR. In CASS-NAT, word embeddings in the autoregressive transformer (AT) are substituted with token-level acoustic embeddings (TAE) that are extracted from encoder outputs with the acoustical boundary information offered by the CTC alignment. TAE can be obtained in parallel, resulting in a parallel generation of output tokens. During training, Viterbi-alignment is used for TAE generation, and multiple training strategies are further explored to improve the word error rate (WER) performance. During inference, an error-based alignment sampling method is investigated in depth to reduce the alignment mismatch in the training and testing processes. Experimental results show that the CASS-NAT has a WER that is close to AT on various ASR tasks, while providing a ~24x inference speedup. With and without self-supervised learning, we achieve new state-of-the-art results for non-autoregressive models on several datasets. We also analyze the behavior of the CASS-NAT decoder to explain why it can perform similarly to AT. We find that TAEs have similar functionality to word embeddings for grammatical structures, which might indicate the possibility of learning some semantic information from TAEs without a language model.

Recent advances in generative AI have significantly enhanced image and video editing, particularly in the context of text prompt control. State-of-the-art approaches predominantly rely on diffusion models to accomplish these tasks. However, the computational demands of diffusion-based methods are substantial, often necessitating large-scale paired datasets for training, and therefore challenging the deployment in practical applications. This study addresses this challenge by breaking down the text-based video editing process into two separate stages. In the first stage, we leverage an existing text-to-image diffusion model to simultaneously edit a few keyframes without additional fine-tuning. In the second stage, we introduce an efficient model called MaskINT, which is built on non-autoregressive masked generative transformers and specializes in frame interpolation between the keyframes, benefiting from structural guidance provided by intermediate frames. Our comprehensive set of experiments illustrates the efficacy and efficiency of MaskINT when compared to other diffusion-based methodologies. This research offers a practical solution for text-based video editing and showcases the potential of non-autoregressive masked generative transformers in this domain.

Chart parsing poses a significant challenge due to the diversity of styles, values, texts, and so forth. Even advanced large vision-language models (LVLMs) with billions of parameters struggle to handle such tasks satisfactorily. To address this, we propose OneChart: a reliable agent specifically devised for the structural extraction of chart information. Similar to popular LVLMs, OneChart incorporates an autoregressive main body. Uniquely, to enhance the reliability of the numerical parts of the output, we introduce an auxiliary token placed at the beginning of the total tokens along with an additional decoder. The numerically optimized (auxiliary) token allows subsequent tokens for chart parsing to capture enhanced numerical features through causal attention. Furthermore, with the aid of the auxiliary token, we have devised a self-evaluation mechanism that enables the model to gauge the reliability of its chart parsing results by providing confidence scores for the generated content. Compared to current state-of-the-art (SOTA) chart parsing models, e.g., DePlot, ChartVLM, ChartAst, OneChart significantly outperforms in Average Precision (AP) for chart structural extraction across multiple public benchmarks, despite enjoying only 0.2 billion parameters. Moreover, as a chart parsing agent, it also brings 10%+ accuracy gains for the popular LVLM (LLaVA-1.6) in the downstream ChartQA benchmark.

Generative models for structure-based drug design (SBDD) have shown promising results in recent years. Existing works mainly focus on how to generate molecules with higher binding affinity, ignoring the feasibility prerequisites for generated 3D poses and resulting in false positives. We conduct thorough studies on key factors of ill-conformational problems when applying autoregressive methods and diffusion to SBDD, including mode collapse and hybrid continuous-discrete space. In this paper, we introduce MolCRAFT, the first SBDD model that operates in the continuous parameter space, together with a novel noise reduced sampling strategy. Empirical results show that our model consistently achieves superior performance in binding affinity with more stable 3D structure, demonstrating our ability to accurately model interatomic interactions. To our best knowledge, MolCRAFT is the first to achieve reference-level Vina Scores (-6.59 kcal/mol) with comparable molecular size, outperforming other strong baselines by a wide margin (-0.84 kcal/mol). Code is available at https://github.com/AlgoMole/MolCRAFT.

As a key component of talking face generation, lip movements generation determines the naturalness and coherence of the generated talking face video. Prior literature mainly focuses on speech-to-lip generation while there is a paucity in text-to-lip (T2L) generation. T2L is a challenging task and existing end-to-end works depend on the attention mechanism and autoregressive (AR) decoding manner. However, the AR decoding manner generates current lip frame conditioned on frames generated previously, which inherently hinders the inference speed, and also has a detrimental effect on the quality of generated lip frames due to error propagation. This encourages the research of parallel T2L generation. In this work, we propose a parallel decoding model for fast and high-fidelity text-to-lip generation (ParaLip). Specifically, we predict the duration of the encoded linguistic features and model the target lip frames conditioned on the encoded linguistic features with their duration in a non-autoregressive manner. Furthermore, we incorporate the structural similarity index loss and adversarial learning to improve perceptual quality of generated lip frames and alleviate the blurry prediction problem. Extensive experiments conducted on GRID and TCD-TIMIT datasets demonstrate the superiority of proposed methods. Video samples are available via https://paralip.github.io/.

We present TraDE, a self-attention-based architecture for auto-regressive density estimation with continuous and discrete valued data. Our model is trained using a penalized maximum likelihood objective, which ensures that samples from the density estimate resemble the training data distribution. The use of self-attention means that the model need not retain conditional sufficient statistics during the auto-regressive process beyond what is needed for each covariate. On standard tabular and image data benchmarks, TraDE produces significantly better density estimates than existing approaches such as normalizing flow estimators and recurrent auto-regressive models. However log-likelihood on held-out data only partially reflects how useful these estimates are in real-world applications. In order to systematically evaluate density estimators, we present a suite of tasks such as regression using generated samples, out-of-distribution detection, and robustness to noise in the training data and demonstrate that TraDE works well in these scenarios.

The conventional evaluation protocols on machine learning models rely heavily on a labeled, i.i.d-assumed testing dataset, which is not often present in real world applications. The Automated Model Evaluation (AutoEval) shows an alternative to this traditional workflow, by forming a proximal prediction pipeline of the testing performance without the presence of ground-truth labels. Despite its recent successes, the AutoEval frameworks still suffer from an overconfidence issue, substantial storage and computational cost. In that regard, we propose a novel measure -- Meta-Distribution Energy (MDE) -- that allows the AutoEval framework to be both more efficient and effective. The core of the MDE is to establish a meta-distribution statistic, on the information (energy) associated with individual samples, then offer a smoother representation enabled by energy-based learning. We further provide our theoretical insights by connecting the MDE with the classification loss. We provide extensive experiments across modalities, datasets and different architectural backbones to validate MDE's validity, together with its superiority compared with prior approaches. We also prove MDE's versatility by showing its seamless integration with large-scale models, and easy adaption to learning scenarios with noisy- or imbalanced- labels. Code and data are available: https://github.com/pengr/Energy_AutoEval

Auto-regressive language models factorize sequence probabilities and are trained by minimizing the negative log-likelihood (NLL) objective. While empirically powerful, a deep theoretical understanding of why this simple objective yields such versatile representations remains elusive. This work introduces a unifying analytical framework using Markov Categories (MCs) to deconstruct the AR generation process and the NLL objective. We model the single-step generation map as a composition of Markov kernels in the category Stoch. This compositional view, when enriched with statistical divergences, allows us to dissect information flow and learned geometry. Our framework makes three main contributions. First, we provide a formal, information-theoretic rationale for the success of modern speculative decoding methods like EAGLE, quantifying the information surplus in hidden states that these methods exploit. Second, we formalize how NLL minimization forces the model to learn not just the next token, but the data's intrinsic conditional stochasticity, a process we analyze using categorical entropy. Third, and most centrally, we prove that NLL training acts as an implicit form of spectral contrastive learning. By analyzing the information geometry of the model's prediction head, we show that NLL implicitly forces the learned representation space to align with the eigenspectrum of a predictive similarity operator, thereby learning a geometrically structured space without explicit contrastive pairs. This compositional and information-geometric perspective reveals the deep structural principles underlying the effectiveness of modern LMs. Project Page: https://github.com/asiresearch/lm-theory

Foundation models of time series have not been fully developed due to the limited availability of time series corpora and the underexploration of scalable pre-training. Based on the similar sequential formulation of time series and natural language, increasing research demonstrates the feasibility of leveraging large language models (LLM) for time series. Nevertheless, the inherent autoregressive property and decoder-only architecture of LLMs have not been fully considered, resulting in insufficient utilization of LLM abilities. To fully revitalize the general-purpose token transition and multi-step generation capability of large language models, we propose AutoTimes to repurpose LLMs as autoregressive time series forecasters, which projects time series into the embedding space of language tokens and autoregressively generates future predictions with arbitrary lengths. Compatible with any decoder-only LLMs, the consequent forecaster exhibits the flexibility of the lookback length and scalability with larger LLMs. Further, we formulate time series as prompts, extending the context for prediction beyond the lookback window, termed in-context forecasting. By introducing LLM-embedded textual timestamps, AutoTimes can utilize chronological information to align multivariate time series. Empirically, AutoTimes achieves state-of-the-art with 0.1% trainable parameters and over 5times training/inference speedup compared to advanced LLM-based forecasters. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/AutoTimes.

The massive adoption of large language models (LLMs) demands efficient deployment strategies. However, the auto-regressive decoding process, which is fundamental to how most LLMs generate text, poses challenges to achieve efficient serving. In this work, we introduce a parallel auto-regressive generation method. By instruct-tuning on general domain data that contains hierarchical structures, we enable LLMs to independently plan their generation process and perform auto-parallel auto-regressive (APAR) generation, significantly reducing the number of generation steps. APAR alone can achieve up to 2x speed-up, and when combined with speculative decoding, the speed-up can reach up to 4x. In addition, APAR reduces the key-value cache consumption and attention computation during generation. This leads to a throughput increase of 20-70% and a latency reduce of 20-35% in high-throughput scenarios, compared to state-of-the-art serving frameworks.

We study data distillation for auto-regressive machine learning tasks, where the input and output have a strict left-to-right causal structure. More specifically, we propose Farzi, which summarizes an event sequence dataset into a small number of synthetic sequences -- Farzi Data -- which are optimized to maintain (if not improve) model performance compared to training on the full dataset. Under the hood, Farzi conducts memory-efficient data distillation by (i) deriving efficient reverse-mode differentiation of the Adam optimizer by leveraging Hessian-Vector Products; and (ii) factorizing the high-dimensional discrete event-space into a latent-space which provably promotes implicit regularization. Empirically, for sequential recommendation and language modeling tasks, we are able to achieve 98-120% of downstream full-data performance when training state-of-the-art models on Farzi Data of size as little as 0.1% of the original dataset. Notably, being able to train better models with significantly less data sheds light on the design of future large auto-regressive models, and opens up new opportunities to further scale up model and data sizes.

Extending the forecasting time is a critical demand for real applications, such as extreme weather early warning and long-term energy consumption planning. This paper studies the long-term forecasting problem of time series. Prior Transformer-based models adopt various self-attention mechanisms to discover the long-range dependencies. However, intricate temporal patterns of the long-term future prohibit the model from finding reliable dependencies. Also, Transformers have to adopt the sparse versions of point-wise self-attentions for long series efficiency, resulting in the information utilization bottleneck. Going beyond Transformers, we design Autoformer as a novel decomposition architecture with an Auto-Correlation mechanism. We break with the pre-processing convention of series decomposition and renovate it as a basic inner block of deep models. This design empowers Autoformer with progressive decomposition capacities for complex time series. Further, inspired by the stochastic process theory, we design the Auto-Correlation mechanism based on the series periodicity, which conducts the dependencies discovery and representation aggregation at the sub-series level. Auto-Correlation outperforms self-attention in both efficiency and accuracy. In long-term forecasting, Autoformer yields state-of-the-art accuracy, with a 38% relative improvement on six benchmarks, covering five practical applications: energy, traffic, economics, weather and disease. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/Autoformer.

Powerful generative models, particularly in Natural Language Modelling, are commonly trained by maximizing a variational lower bound on the data log likelihood. These models often suffer from poor use of their latent variable, with ad-hoc annealing factors used to encourage retention of information in the latent variable. We discuss an alternative and general approach to latent variable modelling, based on an objective that combines the data log likelihood as well as the likelihood of a perfect reconstruction through an autoencoder. Tying these together ensures by design that the latent variable captures information about the observations, whilst retaining the ability to generate well. Interestingly, though this approach is a priori unrelated to VAEs, the lower bound attained is identical to the standard VAE bound but with the addition of a simple pre-factor; thus, providing a formal interpretation of the commonly used, ad-hoc pre-factors in training VAEs.

Current language models demonstrate remarkable proficiency in text generation. However, for many applications it is desirable to control attributes, such as sentiment, or toxicity, of the generated language -- ideally tailored towards each specific use case and target audience. For auto-regressive language models, existing guidance methods are prone to decoding errors that cascade during generation and degrade performance. In contrast, text diffusion models can easily be guided with, for example, a simple linear sentiment classifier -- however they do suffer from significantly higher perplexity than auto-regressive alternatives. In this paper we use a guided diffusion model to produce a latent proposal that steers an auto-regressive language model to generate text with desired properties. Our model inherits the unmatched fluency of the auto-regressive approach and the plug-and-play flexibility of diffusion. We show that it outperforms previous plug-and-play guidance methods across a wide range of benchmark data sets. Further, controlling a new attribute in our framework is reduced to training a single logistic regression classifier.

Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series (MTS) aims to model the predictors of future values of time series given their incomplete past, which is important for many emerging applications. However, most existing methods process MTS's individually, and do not leverage the dynamic distributions underlying the MTS's, leading to sub-optimal results when the sparsity is high. To address this challenge, we propose a novel generative model, which tracks the transition of latent clusters, instead of isolated feature representations, to achieve robust modeling. It is characterized by a newly designed dynamic Gaussian mixture distribution, which captures the dynamics of clustering structures, and is used for emitting timeseries. The generative model is parameterized by neural networks. A structured inference network is also designed for enabling inductive analysis. A gating mechanism is further introduced to dynamically tune the Gaussian mixture distributions. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real-life datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) supports practitioners and researchers with the tedious task of designing machine learning pipelines and has recently achieved substantial success. In this paper, we introduce new AutoML approaches motivated by our winning submission to the second ChaLearn AutoML challenge. We develop PoSH Auto-sklearn, which enables AutoML systems to work well on large datasets under rigid time limits by using a new, simple and meta-feature-free meta-learning technique and by employing a successful bandit strategy for budget allocation. However, PoSH Auto-sklearn introduces even more ways of running AutoML and might make it harder for users to set it up correctly. Therefore, we also go one step further and study the design space of AutoML itself, proposing a solution towards truly hands-free AutoML. Together, these changes give rise to the next generation of our AutoML system, Auto-sklearn 2.0. We verify the improvements by these additions in an extensive experimental study on 39 AutoML benchmark datasets. We conclude the paper by comparing to other popular AutoML frameworks and Auto-sklearn 1.0, reducing the relative error by up to a factor of 4.5, and yielding a performance in 10 minutes that is substantially better than what Auto-sklearn 1.0 achieves within an hour.

Recent efforts have been dedicated to enhancing time series forecasting accuracy by introducing advanced network architectures and self-supervised pretraining strategies. Nevertheless, existing approaches still exhibit two critical drawbacks. Firstly, these methods often rely on a single dataset for training, limiting the model's generalizability due to the restricted scale of the training data. Secondly, the one-step generation schema is widely followed, which necessitates a customized forecasting head and overlooks the temporal dependencies in the output series, and also leads to increased training costs under different horizon length settings. To address these issues, we propose a novel generative pretrained hierarchical transformer architecture for forecasting, named GPHT. There are two aspects of key designs in GPHT. On the one hand, we advocate for constructing a mixed dataset for pretraining our model, comprising various datasets from diverse data scenarios. This approach significantly expands the scale of training data, allowing our model to uncover commonalities in time series data and facilitating improved transfer to specific datasets. On the other hand, GPHT employs an auto-regressive forecasting approach under the channel-independent assumption, effectively modeling temporal dependencies in the output series. Importantly, no customized forecasting head is required, enabling a single model to forecast at arbitrary horizon settings. We conduct sufficient experiments on eight datasets with mainstream self-supervised pretraining models and supervised models. The results demonstrated that GPHT surpasses the baseline models across various fine-tuning and zero/few-shot learning settings in the traditional long-term forecasting task, providing support for verifying the feasibility of pretrained time series large models.

Weighted graphs are ubiquitous throughout biology, chemistry, and the social sciences, motivating the development of generative models for abstract weighted graph data using deep neural networks. However, most current deep generative models are either designed for unweighted graphs and are not easily extended to weighted topologies or incorporate edge weights without consideration of a joint distribution with topology. Furthermore, learning a distribution over weighted graphs must account for complex nonlocal dependencies between both the edges of the graph and corresponding weights of each edge. We develop an autoregressive model BiGG-E, a nontrivial extension of the BiGG model, that learns a joint distribution over weighted graphs while still exploiting sparsity to generate a weighted graph with n nodes and m edges in O((n + m)log n) time. Simulation studies and experiments on a variety of benchmark datasets demonstrate that BiGG-E best captures distributions over weighted graphs while remaining scalable and computationally efficient.

We introduce Autoregressive Diffusion Models (ARDMs), a model class encompassing and generalizing order-agnostic autoregressive models (Uria et al., 2014) and absorbing discrete diffusion (Austin et al., 2021), which we show are special cases of ARDMs under mild assumptions. ARDMs are simple to implement and easy to train. Unlike standard ARMs, they do not require causal masking of model representations, and can be trained using an efficient objective similar to modern probabilistic diffusion models that scales favourably to highly-dimensional data. At test time, ARDMs support parallel generation which can be adapted to fit any given generation budget. We find that ARDMs require significantly fewer steps than discrete diffusion models to attain the same performance. Finally, we apply ARDMs to lossless compression, and show that they are uniquely suited to this task. Contrary to existing approaches based on bits-back coding, ARDMs obtain compelling results not only on complete datasets, but also on compressing single data points. Moreover, this can be done using a modest number of network calls for (de)compression due to the model's adaptable parallel generation.

Discovering the underlying relationships among variables from temporal observations has been a longstanding challenge in numerous scientific disciplines, including biology, finance, and climate science. The dynamics of such systems are often best described using continuous-time stochastic processes. Unfortunately, most existing structure learning approaches assume that the underlying process evolves in discrete-time and/or observations occur at regular time intervals. These mismatched assumptions can often lead to incorrect learned structures and models. In this work, we introduce a novel structure learning method, SCOTCH, which combines neural stochastic differential equations (SDE) with variational inference to infer a posterior distribution over possible structures. This continuous-time approach can naturally handle both learning from and predicting observations at arbitrary time points. Theoretically, we establish sufficient conditions for an SDE and SCOTCH to be structurally identifiable, and prove its consistency under infinite data limits. Empirically, we demonstrate that our approach leads to improved structure learning performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets compared to relevant baselines under regular and irregular sampling intervals.

Learning causal structure from observational data often assumes that we observe independent and identically distributed (i.\,i.\,d) data. The traditional approach aims to find a graphical representation that encodes the same set of conditional independence relationships as those present in the observed distribution. It is known that under i.\,i.\,d assumption, even with infinite data, there is a limit to how fine-grained a causal structure we can identify. To overcome this limitation, recent work has explored using data originating from different, related environments to learn richer causal structure. These approaches implicitly rely on the independent causal mechanisms (ICM) principle, which postulates that the mechanism giving rise to an effect given its causes and the mechanism which generates the causes do not inform or influence each other. Thus, components of the causal model can independently change from environment to environment. Despite its wide application in machine learning and causal inference, there is a lack of statistical formalization of the ICM principle and how it enables identification of richer causal structures from grouped data. Here we present new causal de Finetti theorems which offer a first statistical formalization of ICM principle and show how causal structure identification is possible from exchangeable data. Our work provides theoretical justification for a broad range of techniques leveraging multi-environment data to learn causal structure.

Identifying low-dimensional latent structures within high-dimensional data has long been a central topic in the machine learning community, driven by the need for data compression, storage, transmission, and deeper data understanding. Traditional methods, such as principal component analysis (PCA) and autoencoders (AE), operate in an unsupervised manner, ignoring label information even when it is available. In this work, we introduce a unified method capable of learning latent spaces in both unsupervised and supervised settings. We formulate the problem as a nonlinear multiple-response regression within an index model context. By applying the generalized Stein's lemma, the latent space can be estimated without knowing the nonlinear link functions. Our method can be viewed as a nonlinear generalization of PCA. Moreover, unlike AE and other neural network methods that operate as "black boxes", our approach not only offers better interpretability but also reduces computational complexity while providing strong theoretical guarantees. Comprehensive numerical experiments and real data analyses demonstrate the superior performance of our method.

Autoregressive models are typically applied to sequences of discrete tokens, but recent research indicates that generating sequences of continuous embeddings in an autoregressive manner is also feasible. However, such Continuous Autoregressive Models (CAMs) can suffer from a decline in generation quality over extended sequences due to error accumulation during inference. We introduce a novel method to address this issue by injecting random noise into the input embeddings during training. This procedure makes the model robust against varying error levels at inference. We further reduce error accumulation through an inference procedure that introduces low-level noise. Experiments on musical audio generation show that CAM substantially outperforms existing autoregressive and non-autoregressive approaches while preserving audio quality over extended sequences. This work paves the way for generating continuous embeddings in a purely autoregressive setting, opening new possibilities for real-time and interactive generative applications.

Conventional wisdom suggests that autoregressive models are used to process discrete data. When applied to continuous modalities such as visual data, Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR) typically resorts to quantization-based approaches to cast the data into a discrete space, which can introduce significant information loss. To tackle this issue, we introduce a Continuous VAR framework that enables direct visual autoregressive generation without vector quantization. The underlying theoretical foundation is strictly proper scoring rules, which provide powerful statistical tools capable of evaluating how well a generative model approximates the true distribution. Within this framework, all we need is to select a strictly proper score and set it as the training objective to optimize. We primarily explore a class of training objectives based on the energy score, which is likelihood-free and thus overcomes the difficulty of making probabilistic predictions in the continuous space. Previous efforts on continuous autoregressive generation, such as GIVT and diffusion loss, can also be derived from our framework using other strictly proper scores. Source code: https://github.com/shaochenze/EAR.

Diffusion models have gained significant attention in the realm of image generation due to their exceptional performance. Their success has been recently expanded to text generation via generating all tokens within a sequence concurrently. However, natural language exhibits a far more pronounced sequential dependency in comparison to images, and the majority of existing language models are trained utilizing a left-to-right auto-regressive approach. To account for the inherent sequential characteristic of natural language, we introduce Auto-Regressive Diffusion (AR-Diffusion). AR-Diffusion ensures that the generation of tokens on the right depends on the generated ones on the left, a mechanism achieved through employing a dynamic number of denoising steps that vary based on token position. This results in tokens on the left undergoing fewer denoising steps than those on the right, thereby enabling them to generate earlier and subsequently influence the generation of tokens on the right. In a series of experiments on various text generation tasks including text summarization, machine translation, and common sense generation, AR-Diffusion clearly demonstrated the superiority over existing diffusion language models and that it can be 100timessim600times faster when achieving comparable results. Our code will be publicly released.

In recent years, masked diffusion models (MDMs) have emerged as a promising alternative approach for generative modeling over discrete domains. Compared to autoregressive models (ARMs), MDMs trade off complexity at training time with flexibility at inference time. At training time, they must learn to solve an exponentially large number of infilling problems, but at inference time, they can decode tokens in essentially arbitrary order. In this work, we closely examine these two competing effects. On the training front, we theoretically and empirically demonstrate that MDMs indeed train on computationally intractable subproblems compared to their autoregressive counterparts. On the inference front, we show that a suitable strategy for adaptively choosing the token decoding order significantly enhances the capabilities of MDMs, allowing them to sidestep hard subproblems. On logic puzzles like Sudoku, we show that adaptive inference can boost solving accuracy in pretrained MDMs from <7% to approx 90%, even outperforming ARMs with 7times as many parameters and that were explicitly trained via teacher forcing to learn the right order of decoding.

In this paper we present a new framework for time-series modeling that combines the best of traditional statistical models and neural networks. We focus on time-series with long-range dependencies, needed for monitoring fine granularity data (e.g. minutes, seconds, milliseconds), prevalent in operational use-cases. Traditional models, such as auto-regression fitted with least squares (Classic-AR) can model time-series with a concise and interpretable model. When dealing with long-range dependencies, Classic-AR models can become intractably slow to fit for large data. Recently, sequence-to-sequence models, such as Recurrent Neural Networks, which were originally intended for natural language processing, have become popular for time-series. However, they can be overly complex for typical time-series data and lack interpretability. A scalable and interpretable model is needed to bridge the statistical and deep learning-based approaches. As a first step towards this goal, we propose modelling AR-process dynamics using a feed-forward neural network approach, termed AR-Net. We show that AR-Net is as interpretable as Classic-AR but also scales to long-range dependencies. Our results lead to three major conclusions: First, AR-Net learns identical AR-coefficients as Classic-AR, thus being equally interpretable. Second, the computational complexity with respect to the order of the AR process, is linear for AR-Net as compared to a quadratic for Classic-AR. This makes it possible to model long-range dependencies within fine granularity data. Third, by introducing regularization, AR-Net automatically selects and learns sparse AR-coefficients. This eliminates the need to know the exact order of the AR-process and allows to learn sparse weights for a model with long-range dependencies.

What do auto-encoders learn about the underlying data generating distribution? Recent work suggests that some auto-encoder variants do a good job of capturing the local manifold structure of data. This paper clarifies some of these previous observations by showing that minimizing a particular form of regularized reconstruction error yields a reconstruction function that locally characterizes the shape of the data generating density. We show that the auto-encoder captures the score (derivative of the log-density with respect to the input). It contradicts previous interpretations of reconstruction error as an energy function. Unlike previous results, the theorems provided here are completely generic and do not depend on the parametrization of the auto-encoder: they show what the auto-encoder would tend to if given enough capacity and examples. These results are for a contractive training criterion we show to be similar to the denoising auto-encoder training criterion with small corruption noise, but with contraction applied on the whole reconstruction function rather than just encoder. Similarly to score matching, one can consider the proposed training criterion as a convenient alternative to maximum likelihood because it does not involve a partition function. Finally, we show how an approximate Metropolis-Hastings MCMC can be setup to recover samples from the estimated distribution, and this is confirmed in sampling experiments.

Conventional wisdom holds that autoregressive models for image generation are typically accompanied by vector-quantized tokens. We observe that while a discrete-valued space can facilitate representing a categorical distribution, it is not a necessity for autoregressive modeling. In this work, we propose to model the per-token probability distribution using a diffusion procedure, which allows us to apply autoregressive models in a continuous-valued space. Rather than using categorical cross-entropy loss, we define a Diffusion Loss function to model the per-token probability. This approach eliminates the need for discrete-valued tokenizers. We evaluate its effectiveness across a wide range of cases, including standard autoregressive models and generalized masked autoregressive (MAR) variants. By removing vector quantization, our image generator achieves strong results while enjoying the speed advantage of sequence modeling. We hope this work will motivate the use of autoregressive generation in other continuous-valued domains and applications.

Sequential dependencies present a fundamental bottleneck in deploying large-scale autoregressive models, particularly for real-time applications. While traditional optimization approaches like pruning and quantization often compromise model quality, recent advances in generation-refinement frameworks demonstrate that this trade-off can be significantly mitigated. This survey presents a comprehensive taxonomy of generation-refinement frameworks, analyzing methods across autoregressive sequence tasks. We categorize methods based on their generation strategies (from simple n-gram prediction to sophisticated draft models) and refinement mechanisms (including single-pass verification and iterative approaches). Through systematic analysis of both algorithmic innovations and system-level implementations, we examine deployment strategies across computing environments and explore applications spanning text, images, and speech generation. This systematic examination of both theoretical frameworks and practical implementations provides a foundation for future research in efficient autoregressive decoding.

Autoregressive models, such as the GPT family, use a fixed order, usually left-to-right, to generate sequences. However, this is not a necessity. In this paper, we challenge this assumption and show that by simply adding a positional encoding for the output, this order can be modulated on-the-fly per-sample which offers key advantageous properties. It allows for the sampling of and conditioning on arbitrary subsets of tokens, and it also allows sampling in one shot multiple tokens dynamically according to a rejection strategy, leading to a sub-linear number of model evaluations. We evaluate our method across various domains, including language modeling, path-solving, and aircraft vertical rate prediction, decreasing the number of steps required for generation by an order of magnitude.

Synthetic data generation for tabular datasets must balance fidelity, efficiency, and versatility to meet the demands of real-world applications. We introduce the Tabular Auto-Regressive Generative Network (TabularARGN), a flexible framework designed to handle mixed-type, multivariate, and sequential datasets. By training on all possible conditional probabilities, TabularARGN supports advanced features such as fairness-aware generation, imputation, and conditional generation on any subset of columns. The framework achieves state-of-the-art synthetic data quality while significantly reducing training and inference times, making it ideal for large-scale datasets with diverse structures. Evaluated across established benchmarks, including realistic datasets with complex relationships, TabularARGN demonstrates its capability to synthesize high-quality data efficiently. By unifying flexibility and performance, this framework paves the way for practical synthetic data generation across industries.

Large Language Models' success on text generation has also made them better at code generation and coding tasks. While a lot of work has demonstrated their remarkable performance on tasks such as code completion and editing, it is still unclear as to why. We help bridge this gap by exploring to what degree auto-regressive models understand the logical constructs of the underlying programs. We propose Counterfactual Analysis for Programming Concept Predicates (CACP) as a counterfactual testing framework to evaluate whether Large Code Models understand programming concepts. With only black-box access to the model, we use CACP to evaluate ten popular Large Code Models for four different programming concepts. Our findings suggest that current models lack understanding of concepts such as data flow and control flow.

Enhancing the intelligibility and interpretability of machine learning is a crucial task in responding to the demand for Explicability as an AI principle, and in promoting the better social implementation of AI. The aim of our research is to contribute to this improvement by reformulating machine learning models through the lens of category theory, thereby developing a semantic framework for structuring and understanding AI systems. Our categorical modeling in this paper clarifies and formalizes the structural interplay between residuals and parameters in supervised learning. The present paper focuses on the multiple linear regression model, which represents the most basic form of supervised learning. By defining two concrete categories corresponding to parameters and data, along with an adjoint pair of functors between them, we introduce our categorical formulation of supervised learning. We show that the essential structure of this framework is captured by what we call the Gauss-Markov Adjunction. Within this setting, the dual flow of information can be explicitly described as a correspondence between variations in parameters and residuals. The ordinary least squares estimator for the parameters and the minimum residual are related via the preservation of limits by the right adjoint functor. Furthermore, we position this formulation as an instance of extended denotational semantics for supervised learning, and propose applying a semantic perspective developed in theoretical computer science as a formal foundation for Explicability in AI.

Machine learning techniques have deeply rooted in our everyday life. However, since it is knowledge- and labor-intensive to pursue good learning performance, human experts are heavily involved in every aspect of machine learning. In order to make machine learning techniques easier to apply and reduce the demand for experienced human experts, automated machine learning (AutoML) has emerged as a hot topic with both industrial and academic interest. In this paper, we provide an up to date survey on AutoML. First, we introduce and define the AutoML problem, with inspiration from both realms of automation and machine learning. Then, we propose a general AutoML framework that not only covers most existing approaches to date but also can guide the design for new methods. Subsequently, we categorize and review the existing works from two aspects, i.e., the problem setup and the employed techniques. Finally, we provide a detailed analysis of AutoML approaches and explain the reasons underneath their successful applications. We hope this survey can serve as not only an insightful guideline for AutoML beginners but also an inspiration for future research.

Diffusion models have emerged as a promising alternative to autoregressive models in modeling discrete categorical data. Yet diffusion models that directly work on discrete data space do not fully exploit the power of iterative refinement, as the signals are lost during the transition between discrete states. Existing continuous diffusion models for discrete data have limited performance compared to discrete approaches, and the unclear link between them restricts the development of diffusion models for discrete data. In this work, we propose a continuous diffusion model for language modeling that incorporates the geometry of the underlying categorical distribution. We establish a connection between the discrete diffusion and continuous flow on the statistical manifold, and building on the analogy, we introduce a simple design for the diffusion process that generalizes previous discrete diffusion models. We further propose a simulation-free training framework based on radial symmetry and a simple technique to address the high dimensionality of the manifold. Comprehensive experiments on language modeling benchmarks and other modalities show that our method outperforms existing discrete diffusion models and approaches the performance of autoregressive models. Codes available at https://github.com/harryjo97/RDLM{https://github.com/harryjo97/RDLM}.

Modern techniques for physical simulations rely on numerical schemes and mesh-refinement methods to address trade-offs between precision and complexity, but these handcrafted solutions are tedious and require high computational power. Data-driven methods based on large-scale machine learning promise high adaptivity by integrating long-range dependencies more directly and efficiently. In this work, we focus on fluid dynamics and address the shortcomings of a large part of the literature, which are based on fixed support for computations and predictions in the form of regular or irregular grids. We propose a novel setup to perform predictions in a continuous spatial and temporal domain while being trained on sparse observations. We formulate the task as a double observation problem and propose a solution with two interlinked dynamical systems defined on, respectively, the sparse positions and the continuous domain, which allows to forecast and interpolate a solution from the initial condition. Our practical implementation involves recurrent GNNs and a spatio-temporal attention observer capable of interpolating the solution at arbitrary locations. Our model not only generalizes to new initial conditions (as standard auto-regressive models do) but also performs evaluation at arbitrary space and time locations. We evaluate on three standard datasets in fluid dynamics and compare to strong baselines, which are outperformed both in classical settings and in the extended new task requiring continuous predictions.

Large Language Models (LLMs) based on the pre-trained fine-tuning paradigm have become pivotal in solving natural language processing tasks, consistently achieving state-of-the-art performance. Nevertheless, the theoretical understanding of how model complexity influences fine-tuning performance remains challenging and has not been well explored yet. In this paper, we focus on autoregressive LLMs and propose to employ Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to model them. Based on the HMM modeling, we investigate the relationship between model complexity and the generalization capability in downstream tasks. Specifically, we consider a popular tuning paradigm for downstream tasks, head tuning, where all pre-trained parameters are frozen and only individual heads are trained atop pre-trained LLMs. Our theoretical analysis reveals that the risk initially increases and then decreases with rising model complexity, showcasing a "double descent" phenomenon. In this case, the initial "descent" is degenerate, signifying that the "sweet spot" where bias and variance are balanced occurs when the model size is zero. Obtaining the presented in this study conclusion confronts several challenges, primarily revolving around effectively modeling autoregressive LLMs and downstream tasks, as well as conducting a comprehensive risk analysis for multivariate regression. Our research is substantiated by experiments conducted on data generated from HMMs, which provided empirical support and alignment with our theoretical insights.

Visual Autoregressive (VAR) models have emerged as a powerful approach for multi-modal content creation, offering high efficiency and quality across diverse multimedia applications. However, they face significant memory bottlenecks due to extensive KV cache accumulation during inference. Existing KV cache compression techniques for large language models are suboptimal for VAR models due to, as we identify in this paper, two distinct categories of attention heads in VAR models: Structural Heads, which preserve spatial coherence through diagonal attention patterns, and Contextual Heads, which maintain semantic consistency through vertical attention patterns. These differences render single-strategy KV compression techniques ineffective for VAR models. To address this, we propose HACK, a training-free Head-Aware Compression method for KV cache. HACK allocates asymmetric cache budgets and employs pattern-specific compression strategies tailored to the essential characteristics of each head category. Experiments on Infinity-2B, Infinity-8B, and VAR-d30 demonstrate its effectiveness in text-to-image and class-conditional generation tasks. HACK can hack down up to 50\% and 70\% of cache with minimal performance degradation for VAR-d30 and Infinity-8B, respectively. Even with 70\% and 90\% KV cache compression in VAR-d30 and Infinity-8B, HACK still maintains high-quality generation while reducing memory usage by 44.2\% and 58.9\%, respectively.

We present a constraint-based algorithm for learning causal structures from observational time-series data, in the presence of latent confounders. We assume a discrete-time, stationary structural vector autoregressive process, with both temporal and contemporaneous causal relations. One may ask if temporal and contemporaneous relations should be treated differently. The presented algorithm gradually refines a causal graph by learning long-term temporal relations before short-term ones, where contemporaneous relations are learned last. This ordering of causal relations to be learnt leads to a reduction in the required number of statistical tests. We validate this reduction empirically and demonstrate that it leads to higher accuracy for synthetic data and more plausible causal graphs for real-world data compared to state-of-the-art algorithms.

Knowledge distillation (KD) is widely used for compressing a teacher model to reduce its inference cost and memory footprint, by training a smaller student model. However, current KD methods for auto-regressive sequence models suffer from distribution mismatch between output sequences seen during training and those generated by the student during inference. To address this issue, we introduce Generalized Knowledge Distillation (GKD). Instead of solely relying on a fixed set of output sequences, GKD trains the student on its self-generated output sequences by leveraging feedback from the teacher on such sequences. Unlike supervised KD approaches, GKD also offers the flexibility to employ alternative loss functions between the student and teacher, which can be useful when the student lacks the expressivity to mimic the teacher's distribution. Furthermore, GKD facilitates the seamless integration of distillation with RL fine-tuning (RLHF). We demonstrate the efficacy of GKD for distilling auto-regressive language models on summarization, translation, and arithmetic reasoning tasks, and task-agnostic distillation for instruction-tuning.

Modularization is a cornerstone of computer science, abstracting complex functions into atomic building blocks. In this paper, we introduce a new level of modularization by abstracting generative models into atomic generative modules. Analogous to fractals in mathematics, our method constructs a new type of generative model by recursively invoking atomic generative modules, resulting in self-similar fractal architectures that we call fractal generative models. As a running example, we instantiate our fractal framework using autoregressive models as the atomic generative modules and examine it on the challenging task of pixel-by-pixel image generation, demonstrating strong performance in both likelihood estimation and generation quality. We hope this work could open a new paradigm in generative modeling and provide a fertile ground for future research. Code is available at https://github.com/LTH14/fractalgen.

Autoregressive models have demonstrated remarkable success in sequential data generation, particularly in NLP, but their extension to continuous-domain image generation presents significant challenges. Recent work, the masked autoregressive model (MAR), bypasses quantization by modeling per-token distributions in continuous spaces using a diffusion head but suffers from slow inference due to the high computational cost of the iterative denoising process. To address this, we propose the Fast AutoRegressive model (FAR), a novel framework that replaces MAR's diffusion head with a lightweight shortcut head, enabling efficient few-step sampling while preserving autoregressive principles. Additionally, FAR seamlessly integrates with causal Transformers, extending them from discrete to continuous token generation without requiring architectural modifications. Experiments demonstrate that FAR achieves 2.3times faster inference than MAR while maintaining competitive FID and IS scores. This work establishes the first efficient autoregressive paradigm for high-fidelity continuous-space image generation, bridging the critical gap between quality and scalability in visual autoregressive modeling.

State-space models (SSMs) offer a powerful framework for dynamical system analysis, wherein the temporal dynamics of the system are assumed to be captured through the evolution of the latent states, which govern the values of the observations. This paper provides a selective review of recent advancements in deep neural network-based approaches for SSMs, and presents a unified perspective for discrete time deep state space models and continuous time ones such as latent neural Ordinary Differential and Stochastic Differential Equations. It starts with an overview of the classical maximum likelihood based approach for learning SSMs, reviews variational autoencoder as a general learning pipeline for neural network-based approaches in the presence of latent variables, and discusses in detail representative deep learning models that fall under the SSM framework. Very recent developments, where SSMs are used as standalone architectural modules for improving efficiency in sequence modeling, are also examined. Finally, examples involving mixed frequency and irregularly-spaced time series data are presented to demonstrate the advantage of SSMs in these settings.

Autoregressive models (ARMs), which predict subsequent tokens one-by-one ``from left to right,'' have achieved significant success across a wide range of sequence generation tasks. However, they struggle to accurately represent sequences that require satisfying sophisticated constraints or whose sequential dependencies are better addressed by out-of-order generation. Masked Diffusion Models (MDMs) address some of these limitations, but the process of unmasking multiple tokens simultaneously in MDMs can introduce incoherences, and MDMs cannot handle arbitrary infilling constraints when the number of tokens to be filled in is not known in advance. In this work, we introduce Insertion Language Models (ILMs), which learn to insert tokens at arbitrary positions in a sequence -- that is, they select jointly both the position and the vocabulary element to be inserted. By inserting tokens one at a time, ILMs can represent strong dependencies between tokens, and their ability to generate sequences in arbitrary order allows them to accurately model sequences where token dependencies do not follow a left-to-right sequential structure. To train ILMs, we propose a tailored network parameterization and use a simple denoising objective. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that ILMs outperform both ARMs and MDMs on common planning tasks. Furthermore, we show that ILMs outperform MDMs and perform on par with ARMs in an unconditional text generation task while offering greater flexibility than MDMs in arbitrary-length text infilling.

Time series modeling is a well-established problem, which often requires that methods (1) expressively represent complicated dependencies, (2) forecast long horizons, and (3) efficiently train over long sequences. State-space models (SSMs) are classical models for time series, and prior works combine SSMs with deep learning layers for efficient sequence modeling. However, we find fundamental limitations with these prior approaches, proving their SSM representations cannot express autoregressive time series processes. We thus introduce SpaceTime, a new state-space time series architecture that improves all three criteria. For expressivity, we propose a new SSM parameterization based on the companion matrix -- a canonical representation for discrete-time processes -- which enables SpaceTime's SSM layers to learn desirable autoregressive processes. For long horizon forecasting, we introduce a "closed-loop" variation of the companion SSM, which enables SpaceTime to predict many future time-steps by generating its own layer-wise inputs. For efficient training and inference, we introduce an algorithm that reduces the memory and compute of a forward pass with the companion matrix. With sequence length ell and state-space size d, we go from O(d ell) na\"ively to O(d + ell). In experiments, our contributions lead to state-of-the-art results on extensive and diverse benchmarks, with best or second-best AUROC on 6 / 7 ECG and speech time series classification, and best MSE on 14 / 16 Informer forecasting tasks. Furthermore, we find SpaceTime (1) fits AR(p) processes that prior deep SSMs fail on, (2) forecasts notably more accurately on longer horizons than prior state-of-the-art, and (3) speeds up training on real-world ETTh1 data by 73% and 80% relative wall-clock time over Transformers and LSTMs.

Weak supervision (WS) is a powerful method to build labeled datasets for training supervised models in the face of little-to-no labeled data. It replaces hand-labeling data with aggregating multiple noisy-but-cheap label estimates expressed by labeling functions (LFs). While it has been used successfully in many domains, weak supervision's application scope is limited by the difficulty of constructing labeling functions for domains with complex or high-dimensional features. To address this, a handful of methods have proposed automating the LF design process using a small set of ground truth labels. In this work, we introduce AutoWS-Bench-101: a framework for evaluating automated WS (AutoWS) techniques in challenging WS settings -- a set of diverse application domains on which it has been previously difficult or impossible to apply traditional WS techniques. While AutoWS is a promising direction toward expanding the application-scope of WS, the emergence of powerful methods such as zero-shot foundation models reveals the need to understand how AutoWS techniques compare or cooperate with modern zero-shot or few-shot learners. This informs the central question of AutoWS-Bench-101: given an initial set of 100 labels for each task, we ask whether a practitioner should use an AutoWS method to generate additional labels or use some simpler baseline, such as zero-shot predictions from a foundation model or supervised learning. We observe that in many settings, it is necessary for AutoWS methods to incorporate signal from foundation models if they are to outperform simple few-shot baselines, and AutoWS-Bench-101 promotes future research in this direction. We conclude with a thorough ablation study of AutoWS methods.

Structured variational autoencoders (SVAEs) combine probabilistic graphical model priors on latent variables, deep neural networks to link latent variables to observed data, and structure-exploiting algorithms for approximate posterior inference. These models are particularly appealing for sequential data, where the prior can capture temporal dependencies. However, despite their conceptual elegance, SVAEs have proven difficult to implement, and more general approaches have been favored in practice. Here, we revisit SVAEs using modern machine learning tools and demonstrate their advantages over more general alternatives in terms of both accuracy and efficiency. First, we develop a modern implementation for hardware acceleration, parallelization, and automatic differentiation of the message passing algorithms at the core of the SVAE. Second, we show that by exploiting structure in the prior, the SVAE learns more accurate models and posterior distributions, which translate into improved performance on prediction tasks. Third, we show how the SVAE can naturally handle missing data, and we leverage this ability to develop a novel, self-supervised training approach. Altogether, these results show that the time is ripe to revisit structured variational autoencoders.

Machine learning on graphs has been extensively studied in both academic and industry. However, as the literature on graph learning booms with a vast number of emerging methods and techniques, it becomes increasingly difficult to manually design the optimal machine learning algorithm for different graph-related tasks. To solve this critical challenge, automated machine learning (AutoML) on graphs which combines the strength of graph machine learning and AutoML together, is gaining attention from the research community. Therefore, we comprehensively survey AutoML on graphs in this paper, primarily focusing on hyper-parameter optimization (HPO) and neural architecture search (NAS) for graph machine learning. We further overview libraries related to automated graph machine learning and in-depth discuss AutoGL, the first dedicated open-source library for AutoML on graphs. In the end, we share our insights on future research directions for automated graph machine learning. This paper is the first systematic and comprehensive review of automated machine learning on graphs to the best of our knowledge.

Recently, Visual Autoregressive (VAR) Models introduced a groundbreaking advancement in the field of image generation, offering a scalable approach through a coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" paradigm. However, the state-of-the-art algorithm of VAR models in [Tian, Jiang, Yuan, Peng and Wang, NeurIPS 2024] takes O(n^4) time, which is computationally inefficient. In this work, we analyze the computational limits and efficiency criteria of VAR Models through a fine-grained complexity lens. Our key contribution is identifying the conditions under which VAR computations can achieve sub-quadratic time complexity. Specifically, we establish a critical threshold for the norm of input matrices used in VAR attention mechanisms. Above this threshold, assuming the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH) from fine-grained complexity theory, a sub-quartic time algorithm for VAR models is impossible. To substantiate our theoretical findings, we present efficient constructions leveraging low-rank approximations that align with the derived criteria. This work initiates the study of the computational efficiency of the VAR model from a theoretical perspective. Our technique will shed light on advancing scalable and efficient image generation in VAR frameworks.

Time-series forecasting is one of the most active research topics in artificial intelligence. Applications in real-world time series should consider two factors for achieving reliable predictions: modeling dynamic dependencies among multiple variables and adjusting the model's intrinsic hyperparameters. A still open gap in that literature is that statistical and ensemble learning approaches systematically present lower predictive performance than deep learning methods. They generally disregard the data sequence aspect entangled with multivariate data represented in more than one time series. Conversely, this work presents a novel neural network architecture for time-series forecasting that combines the power of graph evolution with deep recurrent learning on distinct data distributions; we named our method Recurrent Graph Evolution Neural Network (ReGENN). The idea is to infer multiple multivariate relationships between co-occurring time-series by assuming that the temporal data depends not only on inner variables and intra-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from itself) but also on outer variables and inter-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from other-selves). An extensive set of experiments was conducted comparing ReGENN with dozens of ensemble methods and classical statistical ones, showing sound improvement of up to 64.87% over the competing algorithms. Furthermore, we present an analysis of the intermediate weights arising from ReGENN, showing that by looking at inter and intra-temporal relationships simultaneously, time-series forecasting is majorly improved if paying attention to how multiple multivariate data synchronously evolve.

Autoregressive (AR) models have long dominated the landscape of large language models, driving progress across a wide range of tasks. Recently, diffusion-based language models have emerged as a promising alternative, though their advantages over AR models remain underexplored. In this paper, we systematically study masked diffusion models in data-constrained settings-where training involves repeated passes over limited data-and find that they significantly outperform AR models when compute is abundant but data is scarce. Diffusion models make better use of repeated data, achieving lower validation loss and superior downstream performance. We interpret this advantage as implicit data augmentation: masked diffusion exposes the model to a diverse distribution of token orderings and prediction tasks, unlike AR's fixed left-to-right factorization. We find new scaling laws for diffusion models and derive a closed-form expression for the critical compute threshold at which diffusion begins to outperform AR. These results suggest that when data, not compute, is the bottleneck, diffusion models offer a compelling alternative to the standard AR paradigm. Our code is available at: https://diffusion-scaling.github.io.

Parameter-shared pre-trained language models (PLMs) have emerged as a successful approach in resource-constrained environments, enabling substantial reductions in model storage and memory costs without significant performance compromise. However, it is important to note that parameter sharing does not alleviate computational burdens associated with inference, thus impeding its practicality in situations characterized by limited stringent latency requirements or computational resources. Building upon neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs), we introduce a straightforward technique to enhance the inference efficiency of parameter-shared PLMs. Additionally, we propose a simple pre-training technique that leads to fully or partially shared models capable of achieving even greater inference acceleration. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods on both autoregressive and autoencoding PLMs, providing novel insights into more efficient utilization of parameter-shared models in resource-constrained settings.

Machine learning research has advanced in multiple aspects, including model structures and learning methods. The effort to automate such research, known as AutoML, has also made significant progress. However, this progress has largely focused on the architecture of neural networks, where it has relied on sophisticated expert-designed layers as building blocks---or similarly restrictive search spaces. Our goal is to show that AutoML can go further: it is possible today to automatically discover complete machine learning algorithms just using basic mathematical operations as building blocks. We demonstrate this by introducing a novel framework that significantly reduces human bias through a generic search space. Despite the vastness of this space, evolutionary search can still discover two-layer neural networks trained by backpropagation. These simple neural networks can then be surpassed by evolving directly on tasks of interest, e.g. CIFAR-10 variants, where modern techniques emerge in the top algorithms, such as bilinear interactions, normalized gradients, and weight averaging. Moreover, evolution adapts algorithms to different task types: e.g., dropout-like techniques appear when little data is available. We believe these preliminary successes in discovering machine learning algorithms from scratch indicate a promising new direction for the field.

Inferring causal structure poses a combinatorial search problem that typically involves evaluating structures with a score or independence test. The resulting search is costly, and designing suitable scores or tests that capture prior knowledge is difficult. In this work, we propose to amortize causal structure learning. Rather than searching over structures, we train a variational inference model to directly predict the causal structure from observational or interventional data. This allows our inference model to acquire domain-specific inductive biases for causal discovery solely from data generated by a simulator, bypassing both the hand-engineering of suitable score functions and the search over graphs. The architecture of our inference model emulates permutation invariances that are crucial for statistical efficiency in structure learning, which facilitates generalization to significantly larger problem instances than seen during training. On synthetic data and semisynthetic gene expression data, our models exhibit robust generalization capabilities when subject to substantial distribution shifts and significantly outperform existing algorithms, especially in the challenging genomics domain. Our code and models are publicly available at: https://github.com/larslorch/avici.

Knowledge distillation (KD) is widely used for compressing a teacher model to a smaller student model, reducing its inference cost and memory footprint while preserving model capabilities. However, current KD methods for auto-regressive sequence models (e.g., large language models) suffer from missing a standardized objective function. Moreover, the recent use of student-generated outputs to address training-inference mismatches has significantly escalated computational costs. To tackle these issues, we introduce DistiLLM, a more effective and efficient KD framework for auto-regressive language models. DistiLLM comprises two components: (1) a novel skew Kullback-Leibler divergence loss, where we unveil and leverage its theoretical properties, and (2) an adaptive off-policy approach designed to enhance the efficiency in utilizing student-generated outputs. Extensive experiments, including instruction-following tasks, demonstrate the effectiveness of DistiLLM in building high-performing student models while achieving up to 4.3times speedup compared to recent KD methods.

Covariates provide valuable information on external factors that influence time series and are critical in many real-world time series forecasting tasks. For example, in retail, covariates may indicate promotions or peak dates such as holiday seasons that heavily influence demand forecasts. Recent advances in pretraining large language model architectures for time series forecasting have led to highly accurate forecasters. However, the majority of these models do not readily use covariates as they are often specific to a certain task or domain. This paper introduces a new method to incorporate covariates into pretrained time series forecasting models. Our proposed approach incorporates covariate information into pretrained forecasting models through modular blocks that inject past and future covariate information, without necessarily modifying the pretrained model in consideration. In order to evaluate our approach, we introduce a benchmark composed of 32 different synthetic datasets with varying dynamics to evaluate the effectivity of forecasting models with covariates. Extensive evaluations on both synthetic and real datasets show that our approach effectively incorporates covariate information into pretrained models, outperforming existing baselines.

Structured state-space models (SSMs) such as S4, stemming from the seminal work of Gu et al., are gaining popularity as effective approaches for modeling sequential data. Deep SSMs demonstrate outstanding performance across a diverse set of domains, at a reduced training and inference cost compared to attention-based transformers. Recent developments show that if the linear recurrence powering SSMs allows for multiplicative interactions between inputs and hidden states (e.g. GateLoop, Mamba, GLA), then the resulting architecture can surpass in both in accuracy and efficiency attention-powered foundation models trained on text, at scales of billion parameters. In this paper, we give theoretical grounding to this recent finding using tools from Rough Path Theory: we show that when random linear recurrences are equipped with simple input-controlled transitions (selectivity mechanism), then the hidden state is provably a low-dimensional projection of a powerful mathematical object called the signature of the input -- capturing non-linear interactions between tokens at distinct timescales. Our theory not only motivates the success of modern selective state-space models such as Mamba but also provides a solid framework to understand the expressive power of future SSM variants.

An essential and challenging problem in causal inference is causal effect estimation from observational data. The problem becomes more difficult with the presence of unobserved confounding variables. The front-door adjustment is a practical approach for dealing with unobserved confounding variables. However, the restriction for the standard front-door adjustment is difficult to satisfy in practice. In this paper, we relax some of the restrictions by proposing the concept of conditional front-door (CFD) adjustment and develop the theorem that guarantees the causal effect identifiability of CFD adjustment. Furthermore, as it is often impossible for a CFD variable to be given in practice, it is desirable to learn it from data. By leveraging the ability of deep generative models, we propose CFDiVAE to learn the representation of the CFD adjustment variable directly from data with the identifiable Variational AutoEncoder and formally prove the model identifiability. Extensive experiments on synthetic datasets validate the effectiveness of CFDiVAE and its superiority over existing methods. The experiments also show that the performance of CFDiVAE is less sensitive to the causal strength of unobserved confounding variables. We further apply CFDiVAE to a real-world dataset to demonstrate its potential application.

We propose PROSE-FD, a zero-shot multimodal PDE foundational model for simultaneous prediction of heterogeneous two-dimensional physical systems related to distinct fluid dynamics settings. These systems include shallow water equations and the Navier-Stokes equations with incompressible and compressible flow, regular and complex geometries, and different buoyancy settings. This work presents a new transformer-based multi-operator learning approach that fuses symbolic information to perform operator-based data prediction, i.e. non-autoregressive. By incorporating multiple modalities in the inputs, the PDE foundation model builds in a pathway for including mathematical descriptions of the physical behavior. We pre-train our foundation model on 6 parametric families of equations collected from 13 datasets, including over 60K trajectories. Our model outperforms popular operator learning, computer vision, and multi-physics models, in benchmark forward prediction tasks. We test our architecture choices with ablation studies.

With the emerging trend of GPT models, we have established a framework called AutoML-GPT that integrates a comprehensive set of tools and libraries. This framework grants users access to a wide range of data preprocessing techniques, feature engineering methods, and model selection algorithms. Through a conversational interface, users can specify their requirements, constraints, and evaluation metrics. Throughout the process, AutoML-GPT employs advanced techniques for hyperparameter optimization and model selection, ensuring that the resulting model achieves optimal performance. The system effectively manages the complexity of the machine learning pipeline, guiding users towards the best choices without requiring deep domain knowledge. Through our experimental results on diverse datasets, we have demonstrated that AutoML-GPT significantly reduces the time and effort required for machine learning tasks. Its ability to leverage the vast knowledge encoded in large language models enables it to provide valuable insights, identify potential pitfalls, and suggest effective solutions to common challenges faced during model training.

We introduce a framework for automatically defining and learning deep generative models with problem-specific structure. We tackle problem domains that are more traditionally solved by algorithms such as sorting, constraint satisfaction for Sudoku, and matrix factorization. Concretely, we train diffusion models with an architecture tailored to the problem specification. This problem specification should contain a graphical model describing relationships between variables, and often benefits from explicit representation of subcomputations. Permutation invariances can also be exploited. Across a diverse set of experiments we improve the scaling relationship between problem dimension and our model's performance, in terms of both training time and final accuracy. Our code can be found at https://github.com/plai-group/gsdm.

Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) approaches encompass traditional methods that optimize fixed pipelines for model selection and ensembling, as well as newer LLM-based frameworks that autonomously build pipelines. While LLM-based agents have shown promise in automating machine learning tasks, they often generate low-diversity and suboptimal code, even after multiple iterations. To overcome these limitations, we introduce Tree-Search Enhanced LLM Agents (SELA), an innovative agent-based system that leverages Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to optimize the AutoML process. By representing pipeline configurations as trees, our framework enables agents to conduct experiments intelligently and iteratively refine their strategies, facilitating a more effective exploration of the machine learning solution space. This novel approach allows SELA to discover optimal pathways based on experimental feedback, improving the overall quality of the solutions. In an extensive evaluation across 20 machine learning datasets, we compare the performance of traditional and agent-based AutoML methods, demonstrating that SELA achieves a win rate of 65% to 80% against each baseline across all datasets. These results underscore the significant potential of agent-based strategies in AutoML, offering a fresh perspective on tackling complex machine learning challenges.

Autoregressive models excel in modeling sequential dependencies by enforcing causal constraints, yet they struggle to capture complex bidirectional patterns due to their unidirectional nature. In contrast, mask-based models leverage bidirectional context, enabling richer dependency modeling. However, they often assume token independence during prediction, which undermines the modeling of sequential dependencies. Additionally, the corruption of sequences through masking or absorption can introduce unnatural distortions, complicating the learning process. To address these issues, we propose Bidirectional Autoregressive Diffusion (BAD), a novel approach that unifies the strengths of autoregressive and mask-based generative models. BAD utilizes a permutation-based corruption technique that preserves the natural sequence structure while enforcing causal dependencies through randomized ordering, enabling the effective capture of both sequential and bidirectional relationships. Comprehensive experiments show that BAD outperforms autoregressive and mask-based models in text-to-motion generation, suggesting a novel pre-training strategy for sequence modeling. The codebase for BAD is available on https://github.com/RohollahHS/BAD.

We present a general causal generative modelling framework for accurate estimation of high fidelity image counterfactuals with deep structural causal models. Estimation of interventional and counterfactual queries for high-dimensional structured variables, such as images, remains a challenging task. We leverage ideas from causal mediation analysis and advances in generative modelling to design new deep causal mechanisms for structured variables in causal models. Our experiments demonstrate that our proposed mechanisms are capable of accurate abduction and estimation of direct, indirect and total effects as measured by axiomatic soundness of counterfactuals.

State space models (SSMs) have shown remarkable empirical performance on many long sequence modeling tasks, but a theoretical understanding of these models is still lacking. In this work, we study the learning dynamics of linear SSMs to understand how covariance structure in data, latent state size, and initialization affect the evolution of parameters throughout learning with gradient descent. We show that focusing on the learning dynamics in the frequency domain affords analytical solutions under mild assumptions, and we establish a link between one-dimensional SSMs and the dynamics of deep linear feed-forward networks. Finally, we analyze how latent state over-parameterization affects convergence time and describe future work in extending our results to the study of deep SSMs with nonlinear connections. This work is a step toward a theory of learning dynamics in deep state space models.

We propose a general and efficient framework to control auto-regressive generation models with NeurAlly-Decomposed Oracle (NADO). Given a pre-trained base language model and a sequence-level boolean oracle function, we propose to decompose the oracle function into token-level guidance to steer the base model in text generation. Specifically, the token-level guidance is approximated by a neural model trained with examples sampled from the base model, demanding no additional auxiliary labeled data. Based on posterior regularization, we present the closed-form optimal solution to incorporate the token-level guidance into the base model for controllable generation. We further provide a theoretical analysis of how the approximation quality of NADO affects the controllable generation results. Experiments conducted on two applications: (1) text generation with lexical constraints and (2) machine translation with formality control demonstrate that our framework efficiently guides the base model towards the given oracle while maintaining high generation quality.

Multivariate time series forecasting is an important machine learning problem across many domains, including predictions of solar plant energy output, electricity consumption, and traffic jam situation. Temporal data arise in these real-world applications often involves a mixture of long-term and short-term patterns, for which traditional approaches such as Autoregressive models and Gaussian Process may fail. In this paper, we proposed a novel deep learning framework, namely Long- and Short-term Time-series network (LSTNet), to address this open challenge. LSTNet uses the Convolution Neural Network (CNN) and the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to extract short-term local dependency patterns among variables and to discover long-term patterns for time series trends. Furthermore, we leverage traditional autoregressive model to tackle the scale insensitive problem of the neural network model. In our evaluation on real-world data with complex mixtures of repetitive patterns, LSTNet achieved significant performance improvements over that of several state-of-the-art baseline methods. All the data and experiment codes are available online.

This paper proposes a method for the automatic creation of variables (in the case of regression) that complement the information contained in the initial input vector. The method works as a pre-processing step in which the continuous values of the variable to be regressed are discretized into a set of intervals which are then used to define value thresholds. Then classifiers are trained to predict whether the value to be regressed is less than or equal to each of these thresholds. The different outputs of the classifiers are then concatenated in the form of an additional vector of variables that enriches the initial vector of the regression problem. The implemented system can thus be considered as a generic pre-processing tool. We tested the proposed enrichment method with 5 types of regressors and evaluated it in 33 regression datasets. Our experimental results confirm the interest of the approach.

Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) systems have been shown to efficiently build good models for new datasets. However, it is often not clear how well they can adapt when the data evolves over time. The main goal of this study is to understand the effect of data stream challenges such as concept drift on the performance of AutoML methods, and which adaptation strategies can be employed to make them more robust. To that end, we propose 6 concept drift adaptation strategies and evaluate their effectiveness on different AutoML approaches. We do this for a variety of AutoML approaches for building machine learning pipelines, including those that leverage Bayesian optimization, genetic programming, and random search with automated stacking. These are evaluated empirically on real-world and synthetic data streams with different types of concept drift. Based on this analysis, we propose ways to develop more sophisticated and robust AutoML techniques.

Autoregressive models (ARMs) have become the workhorse for sequence generation tasks, since many problems can be modeled as next-token prediction. While there appears to be a natural ordering for text (i.e., left-to-right), for many data types, such as graphs, the canonical ordering is less obvious. To address this problem, we introduce a variant of ARM that generates high-dimensional data using a probabilistic ordering that is sequentially inferred from data. This model incorporates a trainable probability distribution, referred to as an order-policy, that dynamically decides the autoregressive order in a state-dependent manner. To train the model, we introduce a variational lower bound on the exact log-likelihood, which we optimize with stochastic gradient estimation. We demonstrate experimentally that our method can learn meaningful autoregressive orderings in image and graph generation. On the challenging domain of molecular graph generation, we achieve state-of-the-art results on the QM9 and ZINC250k benchmarks, evaluated using the Fr\'{e}chet ChemNet Distance (FCD).

Autoregressive Predictive Coding (APC), as a self-supervised objective, has enjoyed success in learning representations from large amounts of unlabeled data, and the learned representations are rich for many downstream tasks. However, the connection between low self-supervised loss and strong performance in downstream tasks remains unclear. In this work, we propose Vector-Quantized Autoregressive Predictive Coding (VQ-APC), a novel model that produces quantized representations, allowing us to explicitly control the amount of information encoded in the representations. By studying a sequence of increasingly limited models, we reveal the constituents of the learned representations. In particular, we confirm the presence of information with probing tasks, while showing the absence of information with mutual information, uncovering the model's preference in preserving speech information as its capacity becomes constrained. We find that there exists a point where phonetic and speaker information are amplified to maximize a self-supervised objective. As a byproduct, the learned codes for a particular model capacity correspond well to English phones.

In this report we review memory-based meta-learning as a tool for building sample-efficient strategies that learn from past experience to adapt to any task within a target class. Our goal is to equip the reader with the conceptual foundations of this tool for building new, scalable agents that operate on broad domains. To do so, we present basic algorithmic templates for building near-optimal predictors and reinforcement learners which behave as if they had a probabilistic model that allowed them to efficiently exploit task structure. Furthermore, we recast memory-based meta-learning within a Bayesian framework, showing that the meta-learned strategies are near-optimal because they amortize Bayes-filtered data, where the adaptation is implemented in the memory dynamics as a state-machine of sufficient statistics. Essentially, memory-based meta-learning translates the hard problem of probabilistic sequential inference into a regression problem.

Discovering causal structures from data is a challenging inference problem of fundamental importance in all areas of science. The appealing properties of neural networks have recently led to a surge of interest in differentiable neural network-based methods for learning causal structures from data. So far, differentiable causal discovery has focused on static datasets of observational or fixed interventional origin. In this work, we introduce an active intervention targeting (AIT) method which enables a quick identification of the underlying causal structure of the data-generating process. Our method significantly reduces the required number of interactions compared with random intervention targeting and is applicable for both discrete and continuous optimization formulations of learning the underlying directed acyclic graph (DAG) from data. We examine the proposed method across multiple frameworks in a wide range of settings and demonstrate superior performance on multiple benchmarks from simulated to real-world data.

Recommender systems play a significant role in information filtering and have been utilized in different scenarios, such as e-commerce and social media. With the prosperity of deep learning, deep recommender systems show superior performance by capturing non-linear information and item-user relationships. However, the design of deep recommender systems heavily relies on human experiences and expert knowledge. To tackle this problem, Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) is introduced to automatically search for the proper candidates for different parts of deep recommender systems. This survey performs a comprehensive review of the literature in this field. Firstly, we propose an abstract concept for AutoML for deep recommender systems (AutoRecSys) that describes its building blocks and distinguishes it from conventional AutoML techniques and recommender systems. Secondly, we present a taxonomy as a classification framework containing feature selection search, embedding dimension search, feature interaction search, model architecture search, and other components search. Furthermore, we put a particular emphasis on the search space and search strategy, as they are the common thread to connect all methods within each category and enable practitioners to analyze and compare various approaches. Finally, we propose four future promising research directions that will lead this line of research.

Autoregressive models for text sometimes generate repetitive and low-quality output because errors accumulate during the steps of generation. This issue is often attributed to exposure bias - the difference between how a model is trained, and how it is used during inference. Denoising diffusion models provide an alternative approach in which a model can revisit and revise its output. However, they can be computationally expensive and prior efforts on text have led to models that produce less fluent output compared to autoregressive models, especially for longer text and paragraphs. In this paper, we propose PLANNER, a model that combines latent semantic diffusion with autoregressive generation, to generate fluent text while exercising global control over paragraphs. The model achieves this by combining an autoregressive "decoding" module with a "planning" module that uses latent diffusion to generate semantic paragraph embeddings in a coarse-to-fine manner. The proposed method is evaluated on various conditional generation tasks, and results on semantic generation, text completion and summarization show its effectiveness in generating high-quality long-form text in an efficient manner.

We present a simple picture of the training process of joint embedding self-supervised learning methods. We find that these methods learn their high-dimensional embeddings one dimension at a time in a sequence of discrete, well-separated steps. We arrive at this conclusion via the study of a linearized model of Barlow Twins applicable to the case in which the trained network is infinitely wide. We solve the training dynamics of this model from small initialization, finding that the model learns the top eigenmodes of a certain contrastive kernel in a stepwise fashion, and obtain a closed-form expression for the final learned representations. Remarkably, we then see the same stepwise learning phenomenon when training deep ResNets using the Barlow Twins, SimCLR, and VICReg losses. Our theory suggests that, just as kernel regression can be thought of as a model of supervised learning, kernel PCA may serve as a useful model of self-supervised learning.

Can a mere next-token predictor faithfully model human intelligence? We crystallize this intuitive concern, which is fragmented in the literature. As a starting point, we argue that the two often-conflated phases of next-token prediction -- autoregressive inference and teacher-forced training -- must be treated distinctly. The popular criticism that errors can compound during autoregressive inference, crucially assumes that teacher-forcing has learned an accurate next-token predictor. This assumption sidesteps a more deep-rooted problem we expose: in certain classes of tasks, teacher-forcing can simply fail to learn an accurate next-token predictor in the first place. We describe a general mechanism of how teacher-forcing can fail, and design a minimal planning task where both the Transformer and the Mamba architecture empirically fail in that manner -- remarkably, despite the task being straightforward to learn. We provide preliminary evidence that this failure can be resolved when training to predict multiple tokens in advance. We hope this finding can ground future debates and inspire explorations beyond the next-token prediction paradigm. We make our code available under https://github.com/gregorbachmann/Next-Token-Failures

Autoregressive (AR) models have reformulated image generation as next-token prediction, demonstrating remarkable potential and emerging as strong competitors to diffusion models. However, control-to-image generation, akin to ControlNet, remains largely unexplored within AR models. Although a natural approach, inspired by advancements in Large Language Models, is to tokenize control images into tokens and prefill them into the autoregressive model before decoding image tokens, it still falls short in generation quality compared to ControlNet and suffers from inefficiency. To this end, we introduce ControlAR, an efficient and effective framework for integrating spatial controls into autoregressive image generation models. Firstly, we explore control encoding for AR models and propose a lightweight control encoder to transform spatial inputs (e.g., canny edges or depth maps) into control tokens. Then ControlAR exploits the conditional decoding method to generate the next image token conditioned on the per-token fusion between control and image tokens, similar to positional encodings. Compared to prefilling tokens, using conditional decoding significantly strengthens the control capability of AR models but also maintains the model's efficiency. Furthermore, the proposed ControlAR surprisingly empowers AR models with arbitrary-resolution image generation via conditional decoding and specific controls. Extensive experiments can demonstrate the controllability of the proposed ControlAR for the autoregressive control-to-image generation across diverse inputs, including edges, depths, and segmentation masks. Furthermore, both quantitative and qualitative results indicate that ControlAR surpasses previous state-of-the-art controllable diffusion models, e.g., ControlNet++. Code, models, and demo will soon be available at https://github.com/hustvl/ControlAR.

To combat the memory bandwidth-bound nature of autoregressive LLM inference, previous research has proposed the speculative decoding framework. To perform speculative decoding, a small draft model proposes candidate continuations of the input sequence, that are then verified in parallel by the base model. One way to specify the draft model, as used in the recent Medusa decoding framework, is as a collection of light-weight heads, called draft heads, that operate on the base model's hidden states. To date, all existing draft heads have been sequentially independent, meaning that they speculate tokens in the candidate continuation independently of any preceding tokens in the candidate continuation. In this work, we propose Hydra heads, a sequentially dependent, drop-in replacement for standard draft heads that significantly improves speculation accuracy. Decoding with Hydra heads improves throughput compared to Medusa decoding with standard draft heads. We further explore the design space of Hydra head training objectives and architectures, and propose a carefully-tuned Hydra head recipe, which we call Hydra++, that improves decoding throughput by 1.31x and 2.71x compared to Medusa decoding and autoregressive decoding, respectively. Overall, Hydra heads are a simple intervention on standard draft heads that significantly improve the end-to-end speed of draft head based speculative decoding.

Despite a growing interest in diffusion-based language models, existing work has not shown that these models can attain nontrivial likelihoods on standard language modeling benchmarks. In this work, we take the first steps towards closing the likelihood gap between autoregressive and diffusion-based language models, with the goal of building and releasing a diffusion model which outperforms a small but widely-known autoregressive model. We pursue this goal through algorithmic improvements, scaling laws, and increased compute. On the algorithmic front, we introduce several methodological improvements for the maximum-likelihood training of diffusion language models. We then study scaling laws for our diffusion models and find compute-optimal training regimes which differ substantially from autoregressive models. Using our methods and scaling analysis, we train and release Plaid 1B, a large diffusion language model which outperforms GPT-2 124M in likelihood on benchmark datasets and generates fluent samples in unconditional and zero-shot control settings.

We formalize constraint-based structure learning of the "true" causal graph from observed data when unobserved variables are also existent. We provide conditions for a "natural" family of constraint-based structure-learning algorithms that output graphs that are Markov equivalent to the causal graph. Under the faithfulness assumption, this natural family contains all exact structure-learning algorithms. We also provide a set of assumptions, under which any natural structure-learning algorithm outputs Markov equivalent graphs to the causal graph. These assumptions can be thought of as a relaxation of faithfulness, and most of them can be directly tested from (the underlying distribution) of the data, particularly when one focuses on structural causal models. We specialize the definitions and results for structural causal models.

1. The popularity of Machine learning (ML), Deep learning (DL), and Artificial intelligence (AI) has risen sharply in recent years. Despite this spike in popularity, the inner workings of ML and DL algorithms are often perceived as opaque, and their relationship to classical data analysis tools remains debated. 2. Although it is often assumed that ML and DL excel primarily at making predictions, ML and DL can also be used for analytical tasks traditionally addressed with statistical models. Moreover, most recent discussions and reviews on ML focus mainly on DL, missing out on synthesizing the wealth of ML algorithms with different advantages and general principles. 3. Here, we provide a comprehensive overview of the field of ML and DL, starting by summarizing its historical developments, existing algorithm families, differences to traditional statistical tools, and universal ML principles. We then discuss why and when ML and DL models excel at prediction tasks and where they could offer alternatives to traditional statistical methods for inference, highlighting current and emerging applications for ecological problems. Finally, we summarize emerging trends such as scientific and causal ML, explainable AI, and responsible AI that may significantly impact ecological data analysis in the future. 4. We conclude that ML and DL are powerful new tools for predictive modeling and data analysis. The superior performance of ML and DL algorithms compared to statistical models can be explained by their higher flexibility and automatic data-dependent complexity optimization. However, their use for causal inference is still disputed as the focus of ML and DL methods on predictions creates challenges for the interpretation of these models. Nevertheless, we expect ML and DL to become an indispensable tool in E&E, comparable to other traditional statistical tools.

Masked diffusion models (MDMs) have emerged as a popular research topic for generative modeling of discrete data, thanks to their superior performance over other discrete diffusion models, and are rivaling the auto-regressive models (ARMs) for language modeling tasks. The recent effort in simplifying the masked diffusion framework further leads to alignment with continuous-space diffusion models and more principled training and sampling recipes. In this paper, however, we reveal that both training and sampling of MDMs are theoretically free from the time variable, arguably the key signature of diffusion models, and are instead equivalent to masked models. The connection on the sampling aspect is drawn by our proposed first-hitting sampler (FHS). Specifically, we show that the FHS is theoretically equivalent to MDMs' original generation process while significantly alleviating the time-consuming categorical sampling and achieving a 20times speedup. In addition, our investigation raises doubts about whether MDMs can truly beat ARMs. We identify, for the first time, an underlying numerical issue, even with the commonly used 32-bit floating-point precision, which results in inaccurate categorical sampling. We show that the numerical issue lowers the effective temperature both theoretically and empirically, and the resulting decrease in token diversity makes previous evaluations, which assess the generation quality solely through the incomplete generative perplexity metric, somewhat unfair.

Developing architectures suitable for modeling raw audio is a challenging problem due to the high sampling rates of audio waveforms. Standard sequence modeling approaches like RNNs and CNNs have previously been tailored to fit the demands of audio, but the resultant architectures make undesirable computational tradeoffs and struggle to model waveforms effectively. We propose SaShiMi, a new multi-scale architecture for waveform modeling built around the recently introduced S4 model for long sequence modeling. We identify that S4 can be unstable during autoregressive generation, and provide a simple improvement to its parameterization by drawing connections to Hurwitz matrices. SaShiMi yields state-of-the-art performance for unconditional waveform generation in the autoregressive setting. Additionally, SaShiMi improves non-autoregressive generation performance when used as the backbone architecture for a diffusion model. Compared to prior architectures in the autoregressive generation setting, SaShiMi generates piano and speech waveforms which humans find more musical and coherent respectively, e.g. 2x better mean opinion scores than WaveNet on an unconditional speech generation task. On a music generation task, SaShiMi outperforms WaveNet on density estimation and speed at both training and inference even when using 3x fewer parameters. Code can be found at https://github.com/HazyResearch/state-spaces and samples at https://hazyresearch.stanford.edu/sashimi-examples.

Sparse autoencoders have recently produced dictionaries of high-dimensional vectors corresponding to the universe of concepts represented by large language models. We find that this concept universe has interesting structure at three levels: 1) The "atomic" small-scale structure contains "crystals" whose faces are parallelograms or trapezoids, generalizing well-known examples such as (man-woman-king-queen). We find that the quality of such parallelograms and associated function vectors improves greatly when projecting out global distractor directions such as word length, which is efficiently done with linear discriminant analysis. 2) The "brain" intermediate-scale structure has significant spatial modularity; for example, math and code features form a "lobe" akin to functional lobes seen in neural fMRI images. We quantify the spatial locality of these lobes with multiple metrics and find that clusters of co-occurring features, at coarse enough scale, also cluster together spatially far more than one would expect if feature geometry were random. 3) The "galaxy" scale large-scale structure of the feature point cloud is not isotropic, but instead has a power law of eigenvalues with steepest slope in middle layers. We also quantify how the clustering entropy depends on the layer.

Neural operators have proven to be a promising approach for modeling spatiotemporal systems in the physical sciences. However, training these models for large systems can be quite challenging as they incur significant computational and memory expense -- these systems are often forced to rely on autoregressive time-stepping of the neural network to predict future temporal states. While this is effective in managing costs, it can lead to uncontrolled error growth over time and eventual instability. We analyze the sources of this autoregressive error growth using prototypical neural operator models for physical systems and explore ways to mitigate it. We introduce architectural and application-specific improvements that allow for careful control of instability-inducing operations within these models without inflating the compute/memory expense. We present results on several scientific systems that include Navier-Stokes fluid flow, rotating shallow water, and a high-resolution global weather forecasting system. We demonstrate that applying our design principles to neural operators leads to significantly lower errors for long-term forecasts as well as longer time horizons without qualitative signs of divergence compared to the original models for these systems. We open-source our https://github.com/mikemccabe210/stabilizing_neural_operators{code} for reproducibility.

In many real-world settings, agents must learn from an offline dataset gathered by some prior behavior policy. Such a setting naturally leads to distribution shift between the behavior policy and the target policy being trained - requiring policy conservatism to avoid instability and overestimation bias. Autoregressive world models offer a different solution to this by generating synthetic, on-policy experience. However, in practice, model rollouts must be severely truncated to avoid compounding error. As an alternative, we propose policy-guided diffusion. Our method uses diffusion models to generate entire trajectories under the behavior distribution, applying guidance from the target policy to move synthetic experience further on-policy. We show that policy-guided diffusion models a regularized form of the target distribution that balances action likelihood under both the target and behavior policies, leading to plausible trajectories with high target policy probability, while retaining a lower dynamics error than an offline world model baseline. Using synthetic experience from policy-guided diffusion as a drop-in substitute for real data, we demonstrate significant improvements in performance across a range of standard offline reinforcement learning algorithms and environments. Our approach provides an effective alternative to autoregressive offline world models, opening the door to the controllable generation of synthetic training data.

Autoregressive models have achieved impressive results over a wide range of domains in terms of generation quality and downstream task performance. In the continuous domain, a key factor behind this success is the usage of quantized latent spaces (e.g., obtained via VQ-VAE autoencoders), which allow for dimensionality reduction and faster inference times. However, using existing pre-trained models to perform new non-trivial tasks is difficult since it requires additional fine-tuning or extensive training to elicit prompting. This paper introduces LASS as a way to perform vector-quantized Latent Autoregressive Source Separation (i.e., de-mixing an input signal into its constituent sources) without requiring additional gradient-based optimization or modifications of existing models. Our separation method relies on the Bayesian formulation in which the autoregressive models are the priors, and a discrete (non-parametric) likelihood function is constructed by performing frequency counts over latent sums of addend tokens. We test our method on images and audio with several sampling strategies (e.g., ancestral, beam search) showing competitive results with existing approaches in terms of separation quality while offering at the same time significant speedups in terms of inference time and scalability to higher dimensional data.

Recent work has proposed the linear representation hypothesis: that language models perform computation by manipulating one-dimensional representations of concepts ("features") in activation space. In contrast, we explore whether some language model representations may be inherently multi-dimensional. We begin by developing a rigorous definition of irreducible multi-dimensional features based on whether they can be decomposed into either independent or non-co-occurring lower-dimensional features. Motivated by these definitions, we design a scalable method that uses sparse autoencoders to automatically find multi-dimensional features in GPT-2 and Mistral 7B. These auto-discovered features include strikingly interpretable examples, e.g. circular features representing days of the week and months of the year. We identify tasks where these exact circles are used to solve computational problems involving modular arithmetic in days of the week and months of the year. Finally, we provide evidence that these circular features are indeed the fundamental unit of computation in these tasks with intervention experiments on Mistral 7B and Llama 3 8B, and we find further circular representations by breaking down the hidden states for these tasks into interpretable components.

In the realm of time series forecasting (TSF), it is imperative for models to adeptly discern and distill hidden patterns within historical time series data to forecast future states. Transformer-based models exhibit formidable efficacy in TSF, primarily attributed to their advantage in apprehending these patterns. However, the quadratic complexity of the Transformer leads to low computational efficiency and high costs, which somewhat hinders the deployment of the TSF model in real-world scenarios. Recently, Mamba, a selective state space model, has gained traction due to its ability to process dependencies in sequences while maintaining near-linear complexity. For TSF tasks, these characteristics enable Mamba to comprehend hidden patterns as the Transformer and reduce computational overhead compared to the Transformer. Therefore, we propose a Mamba-based model named Simple-Mamba (S-Mamba) for TSF. Specifically, we tokenize the time points of each variate autonomously via a linear layer. A bidirectional Mamba layer is utilized to extract inter-variate correlations and a Feed-Forward Network is set to learn temporal dependencies. Finally, the generation of forecast outcomes through a linear mapping layer. Experiments on thirteen public datasets prove that S-Mamba maintains low computational overhead and achieves leading performance. Furthermore, we conduct extensive experiments to explore Mamba's potential in TSF tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/wzhwzhwzh0921/S-D-Mamba.

Temperature scaling is a popular technique for tuning the sharpness of a model distribution. It is used extensively for sampling likely generations and calibrating model uncertainty, and even features as a controllable parameter to many large language models in deployment. However, autoregressive models rely on myopic temperature scaling that greedily optimizes the next token. To address this, we propose Long Horizon Temperature Scaling (LHTS), a novel approach for sampling from temperature-scaled joint distributions. LHTS is compatible with all likelihood-based models, and optimizes for the long-horizon likelihood of samples. We derive a temperature-dependent LHTS objective, and show that fine-tuning a model on a range of temperatures produces a single model capable of generation with a controllable long-horizon temperature parameter. We experiment with LHTS on image diffusion models and character/language autoregressive models, demonstrating advantages over myopic temperature scaling in likelihood and sample quality, and showing improvements in accuracy on a multiple choice analogy task by 10%.

We deal with the combinatorial problem of learning directed acyclic graph (DAG) structure from observational data adhering to a linear structural equation model (SEM). Leveraging advances in differentiable, nonconvex characterizations of acyclicity, recent efforts have advocated a continuous constrained optimization paradigm to efficiently explore the space of DAGs. Most existing methods employ lasso-type score functions to guide this search, which (i) require expensive penalty parameter retuning when the unknown SEM noise variances change across problem instances; and (ii) implicitly rely on limiting homoscedasticity assumptions. In this work, we propose a new convex score function for sparsity-aware learning of linear DAGs, which incorporates concomitant estimation of scale and thus effectively decouples the sparsity parameter from the exogenous noise levels. Regularization via a smooth, nonconvex acyclicity penalty term yields CoLiDE (Concomitant Linear DAG Estimation), a regression-based criterion amenable to efficient gradient computation and closed-form estimation of noise variances in heteroscedastic scenarios. Our algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art methods without incurring added complexity, especially when the DAGs are larger and the noise level profile is heterogeneous. We also find CoLiDE exhibits enhanced stability manifested via reduced standard deviations in several domain-specific metrics, underscoring the robustness of our novel linear DAG estimator.

The proliferation of generative models, combined with pretraining on web-scale data, raises a timely question: what happens when these models are trained on their own generated outputs? Recent investigations into model-data feedback loops proposed that such loops would lead to a phenomenon termed model collapse, under which performance progressively degrades with each model-data feedback iteration until fitted models become useless. However, those studies largely assumed that new data replace old data over time, where an arguably more realistic assumption is that data accumulate over time. In this paper, we ask: what effect does accumulating data have on model collapse? We empirically study this question by pretraining sequences of language models on text corpora. We confirm that replacing the original real data by each generation's synthetic data does indeed tend towards model collapse, then demonstrate that accumulating the successive generations of synthetic data alongside the original real data avoids model collapse; these results hold across a range of model sizes, architectures, and hyperparameters. We obtain similar results for deep generative models on other types of real data: diffusion models for molecule conformation generation and variational autoencoders for image generation. To understand why accumulating data can avoid model collapse, we use an analytically tractable framework introduced by prior work in which a sequence of linear models are fit to the previous models' outputs. Previous work used this framework to show that if data are replaced, the test error increases with the number of model-fitting iterations; we extend this argument to prove that if data instead accumulate, the test error has a finite upper bound independent of the number of iterations, meaning model collapse no longer occurs.

Graph-based deep learning methods have become popular tools to process collections of correlated time series. Differently from traditional multivariate forecasting methods, neural graph-based predictors take advantage of pairwise relationships by conditioning forecasts on a (possibly dynamic) graph spanning the time series collection. The conditioning can take the form of an architectural inductive bias on the neural forecasting architecture, resulting in a family of deep learning models called spatiotemporal graph neural networks. Such relational inductive biases enable the training of global forecasting models on large time-series collections, while at the same time localizing predictions w.r.t. each element in the set (i.e., graph nodes) by accounting for local correlations among them (i.e., graph edges). Indeed, recent theoretical and practical advances in graph neural networks and deep learning for time series forecasting make the adoption of such processing frameworks appealing and timely. However, most of the studies in the literature focus on proposing variations of existing neural architectures by taking advantage of modern deep learning practices, while foundational and methodological aspects have not been subject to systematic investigation. To fill the gap, this paper aims to introduce a comprehensive methodological framework that formalizes the forecasting problem and provides design principles for graph-based predictive models and methods to assess their performance. At the same time, together with an overview of the field, we provide design guidelines, recommendations, and best practices, as well as an in-depth discussion of open challenges and future research directions.

A directed acyclic graph (DAG) provides valuable prior knowledge that is often discarded in regression tasks in machine learning. We show that the independences arising from the presence of collider structures in DAGs provide meaningful inductive biases, which constrain the regression hypothesis space and improve predictive performance. We introduce collider regression, a framework to incorporate probabilistic causal knowledge from a collider in a regression problem. When the hypothesis space is a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, we prove a strictly positive generalisation benefit under mild assumptions and provide closed-form estimators of the empirical risk minimiser. Experiments on synthetic and climate model data demonstrate performance gains of the proposed methodology.

As black-box models increasingly power high-stakes applications, a variety of data-driven explanation methods have been introduced. Meanwhile, machine learning models are constantly challenged by distributional shifts. A question naturally arises: Are data-driven explanations robust against out-of-distribution data? Our empirical results show that even though predict correctly, the model might still yield unreliable explanations under distributional shifts. How to develop robust explanations against out-of-distribution data? To address this problem, we propose an end-to-end model-agnostic learning framework Distributionally Robust Explanations (DRE). The key idea is, inspired by self-supervised learning, to fully utilizes the inter-distribution information to provide supervisory signals for the learning of explanations without human annotation. Can robust explanations benefit the model's generalization capability? We conduct extensive experiments on a wide range of tasks and data types, including classification and regression on image and scientific tabular data. Our results demonstrate that the proposed method significantly improves the model's performance in terms of explanation and prediction robustness against distributional shifts.

Transformer-based foundation models have emerged as a dominant paradigm in time series analysis, offering unprecedented capabilities in tasks such as forecasting, anomaly detection, classification, trend analysis and many more time series analytical tasks. This survey provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of the art pre-trained foundation models, introducing a novel taxonomy to categorize them across several dimensions. Specifically, we classify models by their architecture design, distinguishing between those leveraging patch-based representations and those operating directly on raw sequences. The taxonomy further includes whether the models provide probabilistic or deterministic predictions, and whether they are designed to work with univariate time series or can handle multivariate time series out of the box. Additionally, the taxonomy encompasses model scale and complexity, highlighting differences between lightweight architectures and large-scale foundation models. A unique aspect of this survey is its categorization by the type of objective function employed during training phase. By synthesizing these perspectives, this survey serves as a resource for researchers and practitioners, providing insights into current trends and identifying promising directions for future research in transformer-based time series modeling.

While early AutoML frameworks focused on optimizing traditional ML pipelines and their hyperparameters, a recent trend in AutoML is to focus on neural architecture search. In this paper, we introduce Auto-PyTorch, which brings the best of these two worlds together by jointly and robustly optimizing the architecture of networks and the training hyperparameters to enable fully automated deep learning (AutoDL). Auto-PyTorch achieves state-of-the-art performance on several tabular benchmarks by combining multi-fidelity optimization with portfolio construction for warmstarting and ensembling of deep neural networks (DNNs) and common baselines for tabular data. To thoroughly study our assumptions on how to design such an AutoDL system, we additionally introduce a new benchmark on learning curves for DNNs, dubbed LCBench, and run extensive ablation studies of the full Auto-PyTorch on typical AutoML benchmarks, eventually showing that Auto-PyTorch performs better than several state-of-the-art competitors on average.

As systems trend toward superintelligence, a natural modeling premise is that agents can self-improve along every facet of their own design. We formalize this with a five-axis decomposition and a decision layer, separating incentives from learning behavior and analyzing axes in isolation. Our central result identifies and introduces a sharp utility--learning tension, the structural conflict in self-modifying systems whereby utility-driven changes that improve immediate or expected performance can also erode the statistical preconditions for reliable learning and generalization. Our findings show that distribution-free guarantees are preserved iff the policy-reachable model family is uniformly capacity-bounded; when capacity can grow without limit, utility-rational self-changes can render learnable tasks unlearnable. Under standard assumptions common in practice, these axes reduce to the same capacity criterion, yielding a single boundary for safe self-modification. Numerical experiments across several axes validate the theory by comparing destructive utility policies against our proposed two-gate policies that preserve learnability.

Linear structural equation models are multivariate statistical models encoded by mixed graphs. In particular, the set of covariance matrices for distributions belonging to a linear structural equation model for a fixed mixed graph G=(V, D,B) is parameterized by a rational function with parameters for each vertex and edge in G. This rational parametrization naturally allows for the study of these models from an algebraic and combinatorial point of view. Indeed, this point of view has led to a collection of results in the literature, mainly focusing on questions related to identifiability and determining relationships between covariances (i.e., finding polynomials in the Gaussian vanishing ideal). So far, a large proportion of these results has focused on the case when D, the directed part of the mixed graph G, is acyclic. This is due to the fact that in the acyclic case, the parametrization becomes polynomial and there is a description of the entries of the covariance matrices in terms of a finite sum. We move beyond the acyclic case and give a closed form expression for the entries of the covariance matrices in terms of the one-connections in a graph obtained from D through some small operations. This closed form expression then allows us to show that if G is simple, then the parametrization map is generically finite-to-one. Finally, having a closed form expression for the covariance matrices allows for the development of an algorithm for systematically exploring possible polynomials in the Gaussian vanishing ideal.

Neural networks transform high-dimensional data into compact, structured representations, often modeled as elements of a lower dimensional latent space. In this paper, we present an alternative interpretation of neural models as dynamical systems acting on the latent manifold. Specifically, we show that autoencoder models implicitly define a latent vector field on the manifold, derived by iteratively applying the encoding-decoding map, without any additional training. We observe that standard training procedures introduce inductive biases that lead to the emergence of attractor points within this vector field. Drawing on this insight, we propose to leverage the vector field as a representation for the network, providing a novel tool to analyze the properties of the model and the data. This representation enables to: (i) analyze the generalization and memorization regimes of neural models, even throughout training; (ii) extract prior knowledge encoded in the network's parameters from the attractors, without requiring any input data; (iii) identify out-of-distribution samples from their trajectories in the vector field. We further validate our approach on vision foundation models, showcasing the applicability and effectiveness of our method in real-world scenarios.

Variational autoencoders provide a principled framework for learning deep latent-variable models and corresponding inference models. In this work, we provide an introduction to variational autoencoders and some important extensions.

As synthetic data becomes higher quality and proliferates on the internet, machine learning models are increasingly trained on a mix of human- and machine-generated data. Despite the successful stories of using synthetic data for representation learning, using synthetic data for generative model training creates "self-consuming loops" which may lead to training instability or even collapse, unless certain conditions are met. Our paper aims to stabilize self-consuming generative model training. Our theoretical results demonstrate that by introducing an idealized correction function, which maps a data point to be more likely under the true data distribution, self-consuming loops can be made exponentially more stable. We then propose self-correction functions, which rely on expert knowledge (e.g. the laws of physics programmed in a simulator), and aim to approximate the idealized corrector automatically and at scale. We empirically validate the effectiveness of self-correcting self-consuming loops on the challenging human motion synthesis task, and observe that it successfully avoids model collapse, even when the ratio of synthetic data to real data is as high as 100%.

Answering counterfactual queries has many important applications such as knowledge discovery and explainability, but is challenging when causal variables are unobserved and we only see a projection onto an observation space, for instance, image pixels. One approach is to recover the latent Structural Causal Model (SCM), but this typically needs unrealistic assumptions, such as linearity of the causal mechanisms. Another approach is to use na\"ive ML approximations, such as generative models, to generate counterfactual samples; however, these lack guarantees of accuracy. In this work, we strive to strike a balance between practicality and theoretical guarantees by focusing on a specific type of causal query called domain counterfactuals, which hypothesizes what a sample would have looked like if it had been generated in a different domain (or environment). Concretely, by only assuming invertibility, sparse domain interventions and access to observational data from different domains, we aim to improve domain counterfactual estimation both theoretically and practically with less restrictive assumptions. We define domain counterfactually equivalent models and prove necessary and sufficient properties for equivalent models that provide a tight characterization of the domain counterfactual equivalence classes. Building upon this result, we prove that every equivalence class contains a model where all intervened variables are at the end when topologically sorted by the causal DAG. This surprising result suggests that a model design that only allows intervention in the last k latent variables may improve model estimation for counterfactuals. We then test this model design on extensive simulated and image-based experiments which show the sparse canonical model indeed improves counterfactual estimation over baseline non-sparse models.

In arbitrary-order language models, it is an open question how to sample tokens in parallel from the correct joint distribution. With discrete diffusion models, the more tokens they generate in parallel, the less their predicted distributions adhere to the originally learned data distribution, as they rely on a conditional independence assumption that only works with infinitesimally small timesteps. We find that a different class of models, any-subset autoregressive models (AS-ARMs), holds the solution. As implied by the name, AS-ARMs can generate tokens in any order, and in parallel. Moreover, AS-ARMs support parallelized joint probability density estimation, allowing them to correct their own parallel-generated token distributions, via our Any-Subset Speculative Decoding (ASSD) algorithm. ASSD provably enables generation of tokens from the correct joint distribution, with the number of neural network calls upper bounded by the number of tokens predicted. We empirically verify that ASSD speeds up language generation, without sacrificing quality. Furthermore, we provide a mathematically justified scheme for training AS-ARMs for generation, and show that AS-ARMs achieve state-of-the-art performance among sub-200M parameter models on infilling benchmark tasks, and nearly match the performance of models 50X larger on code generation. Our theoretical and empirical results indicate that the once-forgotten AS-ARMs are a promising direction of language modeling.

Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) have been proposed as an unsupervised approach to learn a decomposition of a model's latent space. This enables useful applications such as steering - influencing the output of a model towards a desired concept - without requiring labeled data. Current methods identify SAE features to steer by analyzing the input tokens that activate them. However, recent work has highlighted that activations alone do not fully describe the effect of a feature on the model's output. In this work, we draw a distinction between two types of features: input features, which mainly capture patterns in the model's input, and output features, which have a human-understandable effect on the model's output. We propose input and output scores to characterize and locate these types of features, and show that high values for both scores rarely co-occur in the same features. These findings have practical implications: after filtering out features with low output scores, we obtain 2-3x improvements when steering with SAEs, making them competitive with supervised methods.

We show that autoregressive decoding of a transformer-based language model can realize universal computation, without external intervention or modification of the model's weights. Establishing this result requires understanding how a language model can process arbitrarily long inputs using a bounded context. For this purpose, we consider a generalization of autoregressive decoding where, given a long input, emitted tokens are appended to the end of the sequence as the context window advances. We first show that the resulting system corresponds to a classical model of computation, a Lag system, that has long been known to be computationally universal. By leveraging a new proof, we show that a universal Turing machine can be simulated by a Lag system with 2027 production rules. We then investigate whether an existing large language model can simulate the behaviour of such a universal Lag system. We give an affirmative answer by showing that a single system-prompt can be developed for gemini-1.5-pro-001 that drives the model, under deterministic (greedy) decoding, to correctly apply each of the 2027 production rules. We conclude that, by the Church-Turing thesis, prompted gemini-1.5-pro-001 with extended autoregressive (greedy) decoding is a general purpose computer.

The Game of Life (Life), a well known algorithm within the broader class of cellular automata (CA), exhibits complex emergent dynamics, with extreme sensitivity to initial conditions. Modeling and predicting such intricate behavior without explicit knowledge of the system's underlying topology presents a significant challenge, motivating the development of algorithms that can generalize across various grid configurations and boundary conditions. We develop a decoder-only generative pretrained transformer model to solve this problem, showing that our model can simulate Life on a toroidal grid with no prior knowledge on the size of the grid, or its periodic boundary conditions (LifeGPT). LifeGPT is topology-agnostic with respect to its training data and our results show that a GPT model is capable of capturing the deterministic rules of a Turing-complete system with near-perfect accuracy, given sufficiently diverse training data. We also introduce the idea of an `autoregressive autoregressor' to recursively implement Life using LifeGPT. Our results pave the path towards true universal computation within a large language model (LLM) framework, synthesizing of mathematical analysis with natural language processing, and probing AI systems for situational awareness about the evolution of such algorithms without ever having to compute them. Similar GPTs could potentially solve inverse problems in multicellular self-assembly by extracting CA-compatible rulesets from real-world biological systems to create new predictive models, which would have significant consequences for the fields of bioinspired materials, tissue engineering, and architected materials design.

The integration of knowledge extracted from diverse models, whether described by domain experts or generated by machine learning algorithms, has historically been challenged by the absence of a suitable framework for specifying and integrating structures, learning processes, data transformations, and data models or rules. In this work, we extend algebraic specification methods to address these challenges within such a framework. In our work, we tackle the challenging task of developing a comprehensive framework for defining and analyzing deep learning architectures. We believe that previous efforts have fallen short by failing to establish a clear connection between the constraints a model must adhere to and its actual implementation. Our methodology employs graphical structures that resemble Ehresmann's sketches, interpreted within a universe of fuzzy sets. This approach offers a unified theory that elegantly encompasses both deterministic and non-deterministic neural network designs. Furthermore, we highlight how this theory naturally incorporates fundamental concepts from computer science and automata theory. Our extended algebraic specification framework, grounded in graphical structures akin to Ehresmann's sketches, offers a promising solution for integrating knowledge across disparate models and domains. By bridging the gap between domain-specific expertise and machine-generated insights, we pave the way for more comprehensive, collaborative, and effective approaches to knowledge integration and modeling.

Recent studies have shown that autoencoder-based models can achieve superior performance on anomaly detection tasks due to their excellent ability to fit complex data in an unsupervised manner. In this work, we propose a novel autoencoder-based model, named StackVAE-G that can significantly bring the efficiency and interpretability to multivariate time series anomaly detection. Specifically, we utilize the similarities across the time series channels by the stacking block-wise reconstruction with a weight-sharing scheme to reduce the size of learned models and also relieve the overfitting to unknown noises in the training data. We also leverage a graph learning module to learn a sparse adjacency matrix to explicitly capture the stable interrelation structure among multiple time series channels for the interpretable pattern reconstruction of interrelated channels. Combining these two modules, we introduce the stacking block-wise VAE (variational autoencoder) with GNN (graph neural network) model for multivariate time series anomaly detection. We conduct extensive experiments on three commonly used public datasets, showing that our model achieves comparable (even better) performance with the state-of-the-art modelsand meanwhile requires much less computation and memory cost. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the adjacency matrix learned by our model accurately captures the interrelation among multiple channels, and can provide valuable information for failure diagnosis applications.

Although autoregressive models have dominated language modeling in recent years, there has been a growing interest in exploring alternative paradigms to the conventional next-token prediction framework. Diffusion-based language models have emerged as a compelling alternative due to their powerful parallel generation capabilities and inherent editability. However, these models are often constrained by fixed-length generation. A promising direction is to combine the strengths of both paradigms, segmenting sequences into blocks, modeling autoregressive dependencies across blocks while leveraging discrete diffusion to estimate the conditional distribution within each block given the preceding context. Nevertheless, their practical application is often hindered by two key limitations: rigid fixed-length outputs and a lack of flexible control mechanisms. In this work, we address the critical limitations of fixed granularity and weak controllability in current large diffusion language models. We propose CtrlDiff, a dynamic and controllable semi-autoregressive framework that adaptively determines the size of each generation block based on local semantics using reinforcement learning. Furthermore, we introduce a classifier-guided control mechanism tailored to discrete diffusion, which significantly reduces computational overhead while facilitating efficient post-hoc conditioning without retraining. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CtrlDiff sets a new standard among hybrid diffusion models, narrows the performance gap to state-of-the-art autoregressive approaches, and enables effective conditional text generation across diverse tasks.

We revisit the structure learning problem for dynamic Bayesian networks and propose a method that simultaneously estimates contemporaneous (intra-slice) and time-lagged (inter-slice) relationships between variables in a time-series. Our approach is score-based, and revolves around minimizing a penalized loss subject to an acyclicity constraint. To solve this problem, we leverage a recent algebraic result characterizing the acyclicity constraint as a smooth equality constraint. The resulting algorithm, which we call DYNOTEARS, outperforms other methods on simulated data, especially in high-dimensions as the number of variables increases. We also apply this algorithm on real datasets from two different domains, finance and molecular biology, and analyze the resulting output. Compared to state-of-the-art methods for learning dynamic Bayesian networks, our method is both scalable and accurate on real data. The simple formulation and competitive performance of our method make it suitable for a variety of problems where one seeks to learn connections between variables across time.

Autoregressive language models, despite their impressive capabilities, struggle with complex reasoning and long-term planning tasks. We introduce discrete diffusion models as a novel solution to these challenges. Through the lens of subgoal imbalance, we demonstrate how diffusion models effectively learn difficult subgoals that elude autoregressive approaches. We propose Multi-granularity Diffusion Modeling (MDM), which prioritizes subgoals based on difficulty during learning. On complex tasks like Countdown, Sudoku, and Boolean Satisfiability Problems, MDM significantly outperforms autoregressive models without using search techniques. For instance, MDM achieves 91.5\% and 100\% accuracy on Countdown and Sudoku, respectively, compared to 45.8\% and 20.7\% for autoregressive models. Our work highlights the potential of diffusion-based approaches in advancing AI capabilities for sophisticated language understanding and problem-solving tasks.

This paper introduces a novel training methodology that enables a small Transformer model to generalize the addition of two-digit numbers to numbers with unseen lengths of digits. The proposed approach employs an autoregressive generation technique, processing from right to left, which mimics a common manual method for adding large numbers. To the best of my knowledge, this methodology has not been previously explored in the literature. All results are reproducible, and the corresponding R code is available at: https://github.com/AGPatriota/ALGA-R/.

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has always been a challenging task for the researchers. While the advocates of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) believe that it is impossible to design any predictive framework that can accurately predict the movement of stock prices, there are seminal work in the literature that have clearly demonstrated that the seemingly random movement patterns in the time series of a stock price can be predicted with a high level of accuracy. Design of such predictive models requires choice of appropriate variables, right transformation methods of the variables, and tuning of the parameters of the models. In this work, we present a very robust and accurate framework of stock price prediction that consists of an agglomeration of statistical, machine learning and deep learning models. We use the daily stock price data, collected at five minutes interval of time, of a very well known company that is listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The granular data is aggregated into three slots in a day, and the aggregated data is used for building and training the forecasting models. We contend that the agglomerative approach of model building that uses a combination of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning approaches, can very effectively learn from the volatile and random movement patterns in a stock price data. We build eight classification and eight regression models based on statistical and machine learning approaches. In addition to these models, a deep learning regression model using a long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) network is also built. Extensive results have been presented on the performance of these models, and the results are critically analyzed.

This paper presents Diffusion via Autoregressive models (D-AR), a new paradigm recasting the image diffusion process as a vanilla autoregressive procedure in the standard next-token-prediction fashion. We start by designing the tokenizer that converts images into sequences of discrete tokens, where tokens in different positions can be decoded into different diffusion denoising steps in the pixel space. Thanks to the diffusion properties, these tokens naturally follow a coarse-to-fine order, which directly lends itself to autoregressive modeling. Therefore, we apply standard next-token prediction on these tokens, without modifying any underlying designs (either causal masks or training/inference strategies), and such sequential autoregressive token generation directly mirrors the diffusion procedure in image space. That is, once the autoregressive model generates an increment of tokens, we can directly decode these tokens into the corresponding diffusion denoising step in the streaming manner. Our pipeline naturally reveals several intriguing properties, for example, it supports consistent previews when generating only a subset of tokens and enables zero-shot layout-controlled synthesis. On the standard ImageNet benchmark, our method achieves 2.09 FID using a 775M Llama backbone with 256 discrete tokens. We hope our work can inspire future research on unified autoregressive architectures of visual synthesis, especially with large language models. Code and models will be available at https://github.com/showlab/D-AR

In the era of proliferation of large language and image generation models, the phenomenon of "model collapse" refers to the situation whereby as a model is trained recursively on data generated from previous generations of itself over time, its performance degrades until the model eventually becomes completely useless, i.e the model collapses. In this work, we study this phenomenon in the setting of high-dimensional regression and obtain analytic formulae which quantitatively outline this phenomenon in a broad range of regimes. In the special case of polynomial decaying spectral and source conditions, we obtain modified scaling laws which exhibit new crossover phenomena from fast to slow rates. We also propose a simple strategy based on adaptive regularization to mitigate model collapse. Our theoretical results are validated with experiments.

Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) have emerged as a powerful framework for machine learning interpretability, enabling the unsupervised decomposition of model representations into a dictionary of abstract, human-interpretable concepts. However, we reveal a fundamental limitation: existing SAEs exhibit severe instability, as identical models trained on similar datasets can produce sharply different dictionaries, undermining their reliability as an interpretability tool. To address this issue, we draw inspiration from the Archetypal Analysis framework introduced by Cutler & Breiman (1994) and present Archetypal SAEs (A-SAE), wherein dictionary atoms are constrained to the convex hull of data. This geometric anchoring significantly enhances the stability of inferred dictionaries, and their mildly relaxed variants RA-SAEs further match state-of-the-art reconstruction abilities. To rigorously assess dictionary quality learned by SAEs, we introduce two new benchmarks that test (i) plausibility, if dictionaries recover "true" classification directions and (ii) identifiability, if dictionaries disentangle synthetic concept mixtures. Across all evaluations, RA-SAEs consistently yield more structured representations while uncovering novel, semantically meaningful concepts in large-scale vision models.

Can large language models (LLMs) implement computations of psychopathology? An effective approach to the question hinges on addressing two factors. First, for conceptual validity, we require a general and computational account of psychopathology that is applicable to computational entities without biological embodiment or subjective experience. Second, mechanisms underlying LLM behaviors need to be studied for better methodological validity. Thus, we establish a computational-theoretical framework to provide an account of psychopathology applicable to LLMs. To ground the theory for empirical analysis, we also propose a novel mechanistic interpretability method alongside a tailored empirical analytic framework. Based on the frameworks, we conduct experiments demonstrating three key claims: first, that distinct dysfunctional and problematic representational states are implemented in LLMs; second, that their activations can spread and self-sustain to trap LLMs; and third, that dynamic, cyclic structural causal models encoded in the LLMs underpin these patterns. In concert, the empirical results corroborate our hypothesis that network-theoretic computations of psychopathology have already emerged in LLMs. This suggests that certain LLM behaviors mirroring psychopathology may not be a superficial mimicry but a feature of their internal processing. Thus, our work alludes to the possibility of AI systems with psychopathological behaviors in the near future.

Automated machine learning (AutoML) is a collection of techniques designed to automate the machine learning development process. While traditional AutoML approaches have been successfully applied in several critical steps of model development (e.g. hyperparameter optimization), there lacks a AutoML system that automates the entire end-to-end model production workflow. To fill this blank, we present AutoMMLab, a general-purpose LLM-empowered AutoML system that follows user's language instructions to automate the whole model production workflow for computer vision tasks. The proposed AutoMMLab system effectively employs LLMs as the bridge to connect AutoML and OpenMMLab community, empowering non-expert individuals to easily build task-specific models via a user-friendly language interface. Specifically, we propose RU-LLaMA to understand users' request and schedule the whole pipeline, and propose a novel LLM-based hyperparameter optimizer called HPO-LLaMA to effectively search for the optimal hyperparameters. Experiments show that our AutoMMLab system is versatile and covers a wide range of mainstream tasks, including classification, detection, segmentation and keypoint estimation. We further develop a new benchmark, called LAMP, for studying key components in the end-to-end prompt-based model training pipeline. Code, model, and data will be released.

Temporal data such as time series can be viewed as discretized measurements of the underlying function. To build a generative model for such data we have to model the stochastic process that governs it. We propose a solution by defining the denoising diffusion model in the function space which also allows us to naturally handle irregularly-sampled observations. The forward process gradually adds noise to functions, preserving their continuity, while the learned reverse process removes the noise and returns functions as new samples. To this end, we define suitable noise sources and introduce novel denoising and score-matching models. We show how our method can be used for multivariate probabilistic forecasting and imputation, and how our model can be interpreted as a neural process.

Self-supervised learning excels at learning representations from large amounts of data. At the same time, generative models offer the complementary property of learning information about the underlying data generation process. In this study, we aim at establishing a principled connection between these two paradigms and highlight the benefits of their complementarity. In particular, we perform an analysis of self-supervised learning objectives, elucidating the underlying probabilistic graphical models and presenting a standardized methodology for their derivation from first principles. The analysis suggests a natural means of integrating self-supervised learning with likelihood-based generative models. We instantiate this concept within the realm of cluster-based self-supervised learning and energy models, introducing a lower bound proven to reliably penalize the most important failure modes and unlocking full unification. Our theoretical findings are substantiated through experiments on synthetic and real-world data, including SVHN, CIFAR10, and CIFAR100, demonstrating that our objective function allows to jointly train a backbone network in a discriminative and generative fashion, consequently outperforming existing self-supervised learning strategies in terms of clustering, generation and out-of-distribution detection performance by a wide margin. We also demonstrate that the solution can be integrated into a neuro-symbolic framework to tackle a simple yet non-trivial instantiation of the symbol grounding problem. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/emsansone/GEDI.

Koopman representations aim to learn features of nonlinear dynamical systems (NLDS) which lead to linear dynamics in the latent space. Theoretically, such features can be used to simplify many problems in modeling and control of NLDS. In this work we study autoencoder formulations of this problem, and different ways they can be used to model dynamics, specifically for future state prediction over long horizons. We discover several limitations of predicting future states in the latent space and propose an inference-time mechanism, which we refer to as Periodic Reencoding, for faithfully capturing long term dynamics. We justify this method both analytically and empirically via experiments in low and high dimensional NLDS.

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) were recently proposed as a new paradigm for machine learning. Instead of training the network to an observed training set, a fixed model is pre-trained offline on small, simulated training sets from a variety of tasks. The pre-trained model is then used to infer class probabilities in-context on fresh training sets with arbitrary size and distribution. Empirically, PFNs achieve state-of-the-art performance on tasks with similar size to the ones used in pre-training. Surprisingly, their accuracy further improves when passed larger data sets during inference. This article establishes a theoretical foundation for PFNs and illuminates the statistical mechanisms governing their behavior. While PFNs are motivated by Bayesian ideas, a purely frequentistic interpretation of PFNs as pre-tuned, but untrained predictors explains their behavior. A predictor's variance vanishes if its sensitivity to individual training samples does and the bias vanishes only if it is appropriately localized around the test feature. The transformer architecture used in current PFN implementations ensures only the former. These findings shall prove useful for designing architectures with favorable empirical behavior.

In this paper, we present the findings of our Project ALPINE which stands for ``Autoregressive Learning for Planning In NEtworks." Project ALPINE initiates a theoretical investigation into the development of planning capabilities in Transformer-based language models through their autoregressive learning mechanisms, aiming to identify any potential limitations in their planning abilities. We abstract planning as a network path-finding task where the objective is to generate a valid path from a specified source node to a designated target node. In terms of expressiveness, we show that the Transformer is capable of executing path-finding by embedding the adjacency and reachability matrices within its weights. Our theoretical analysis of the gradient-based learning dynamic of the Transformer reveals that the Transformer is capable of learning both the adjacency matrix and a limited form of the reachability matrix. These theoretical insights are then validated through experiments, which demonstrate that the Transformer indeed learns the adjacency matrix and an incomplete reachability matrix, which aligns with the predictions made in our theoretical analysis. Additionally, when applying our methodology to a real-world planning benchmark, called Blocksworld, our observations remain consistent. Our theoretical and empirical analyses further unveil a potential limitation of Transformer in path-finding: it cannot identify reachability relationships through transitivity, and thus would fail when path concatenation is needed to generate a path. In summary, our findings shed new light on how the internal mechanisms of autoregressive learning enable planning in networks. This study may contribute to our understanding of the general planning capabilities in other related domains.

Graph generation has been dominated by autoregressive models due to their simplicity and effectiveness, despite their sensitivity to ordering. Yet diffusion models have garnered increasing attention, as they offer comparable performance while being permutation-invariant. Current graph diffusion models generate graphs in a one-shot fashion, but they require extra features and thousands of denoising steps to achieve optimal performance. We introduce PARD, a Permutation-invariant Auto Regressive Diffusion model that integrates diffusion models with autoregressive methods. PARD harnesses the effectiveness and efficiency of the autoregressive model while maintaining permutation invariance without ordering sensitivity. Specifically, we show that contrary to sets, elements in a graph are not entirely unordered and there is a unique partial order for nodes and edges. With this partial order, PARD generates a graph in a block-by-block, autoregressive fashion, where each block's probability is conditionally modeled by a shared diffusion model with an equivariant network. To ensure efficiency while being expressive, we further propose a higher-order graph transformer, which integrates transformer with PPGN. Like GPT, we extend the higher-order graph transformer to support parallel training of all blocks. Without any extra features, PARD achieves state-of-the-art performance on molecular and non-molecular datasets, and scales to large datasets like MOSES containing 1.9M molecules.

This study explores the application of self-supervised learning (SSL) to the task of motion forecasting, an area that has not yet been extensively investigated despite the widespread success of SSL in computer vision and natural language processing. To address this gap, we introduce Forecast-MAE, an extension of the mask autoencoders framework that is specifically designed for self-supervised learning of the motion forecasting task. Our approach includes a novel masking strategy that leverages the strong interconnections between agents' trajectories and road networks, involving complementary masking of agents' future or history trajectories and random masking of lane segments. Our experiments on the challenging Argoverse 2 motion forecasting benchmark show that Forecast-MAE, which utilizes standard Transformer blocks with minimal inductive bias, achieves competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art methods that rely on supervised learning and sophisticated designs. Moreover, it outperforms the previous self-supervised learning method by a significant margin. Code is available at https://github.com/jchengai/forecast-mae.

We discovered the underlying physics in Next-token Prediction (NTP). We identified the law of information conservation within NTP and proposed the First Law of Information Capacity (IC-1), demonstrating that the essence of intelligence emergence in auto-regressive models is fundamentally a process of information transfer. We also introduced Landauer's Principle into NTP, formulating the Second Law of Information Capacity (IC-2), which establishes the relationship between auto-regressive model training and energy consumption. Additionally, we presented several corollaries, which hold practical significance for production practices. Finally, we validated the compatibility and complementarity of our findings with existing theories.

Imagine a developer who can only change their last line of code, how often would they have to start writing a function from scratch before it is correct? Auto-regressive models for code generation from natural language have a similar limitation: they do not easily allow reconsidering earlier tokens generated. We introduce CodeFusion, a pre-trained diffusion code generation model that addresses this limitation by iteratively denoising a complete program conditioned on the encoded natural language. We evaluate CodeFusion on the task of natural language to code generation for Bash, Python, and Microsoft Excel conditional formatting (CF) rules. Experiments show that CodeFusion (75M parameters) performs on par with state-of-the-art auto-regressive systems (350M-175B parameters) in top-1 accuracy and outperforms them in top-3 and top-5 accuracy due to its better balance in diversity versus quality.

Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) have emerged as a useful tool for interpreting the internal representations of neural networks. However, naively optimising SAEs for reconstruction loss and sparsity results in a preference for SAEs that are extremely wide and sparse. We present an information-theoretic framework for interpreting SAEs as lossy compression algorithms for communicating explanations of neural activations. We appeal to the Minimal Description Length (MDL) principle to motivate explanations of activations which are both accurate and concise. We further argue that interpretable SAEs require an additional property, "independent additivity": features should be able to be understood separately. We demonstrate an example of applying our MDL-inspired framework by training SAEs on MNIST handwritten digits and find that SAE features representing significant line segments are optimal, as opposed to SAEs with features for memorised digits from the dataset or small digit fragments. We argue that using MDL rather than sparsity may avoid potential pitfalls with naively maximising sparsity such as undesirable feature splitting and that this framework naturally suggests new hierarchical SAE architectures which provide more concise explanations.

State space models (SSM) have recently been shown to be very effective as a deep learning layer as a promising alternative to sequence models such as RNNs, CNNs, or Transformers. The first version to show this potential was the S4 model, which is particularly effective on tasks involving long-range dependencies by using a prescribed state matrix called the HiPPO matrix. While this has an interpretable mathematical mechanism for modeling long dependencies, it introduces a custom representation and algorithm that can be difficult to implement. On the other hand, a recent variant of S4 called DSS showed that restricting the state matrix to be fully diagonal can still preserve the performance of the original model when using a specific initialization based on approximating S4's matrix. This work seeks to systematically understand how to parameterize and initialize such diagonal state space models. While it follows from classical results that almost all SSMs have an equivalent diagonal form, we show that the initialization is critical for performance. We explain why DSS works mathematically, by showing that the diagonal restriction of S4's matrix surprisingly recovers the same kernel in the limit of infinite state dimension. We also systematically describe various design choices in parameterizing and computing diagonal SSMs, and perform a controlled empirical study ablating the effects of these choices. Our final model S4D is a simple diagonal version of S4 whose kernel computation requires just 2 lines of code and performs comparably to S4 in almost all settings, with state-of-the-art results for image, audio, and medical time-series domains, and averaging 85\% on the Long Range Arena benchmark.

The numerical solution of partial differential equations (PDEs) is difficult, having led to a century of research so far. Recently, there have been pushes to build neural--numerical hybrid solvers, which piggy-backs the modern trend towards fully end-to-end learned systems. Most works so far can only generalize over a subset of properties to which a generic solver would be faced, including: resolution, topology, geometry, boundary conditions, domain discretization regularity, dimensionality, etc. In this work, we build a solver, satisfying these properties, where all the components are based on neural message passing, replacing all heuristically designed components in the computation graph with backprop-optimized neural function approximators. We show that neural message passing solvers representationally contain some classical methods, such as finite differences, finite volumes, and WENO schemes. In order to encourage stability in training autoregressive models, we put forward a method that is based on the principle of zero-stability, posing stability as a domain adaptation problem. We validate our method on various fluid-like flow problems, demonstrating fast, stable, and accurate performance across different domain topologies, equation parameters, discretizations, etc., in 1D and 2D.

Learning the tail behavior of a distribution is a notoriously difficult problem. By definition, the number of samples from the tail is small, and deep generative models, such as normalizing flows, tend to concentrate on learning the body of the distribution. In this paper, we focus on improving the ability of normalizing flows to correctly capture the tail behavior and, thus, form more accurate models. We prove that the marginal tailedness of an autoregressive flow can be controlled via the tailedness of the marginals of its base distribution. This theoretical insight leads us to a novel type of flows based on flexible base distributions and data-driven linear layers. An empirical analysis shows that the proposed method improves on the accuracy -- especially on the tails of the distribution -- and is able to generate heavy-tailed data. We demonstrate its application on a weather and climate example, in which capturing the tail behavior is essential.

Do transformers "think ahead" during inference at a given position? It is known transformers prepare information in the hidden states of the forward pass at t that is then used in future forward passes t+tau. We posit two explanations for this phenomenon: pre-caching, in which off-diagonal gradient terms present in training result in the model computing features at t irrelevant to the present inference task but useful for the future, and breadcrumbs, in which features most relevant to time step t are already the same as those that would most benefit inference at time t+tau. We test these hypotheses by training language models without propagating gradients to past timesteps, a scheme we formalize as myopic training. In a synthetic data setting, we find clear evidence for pre-caching. In the autoregressive language modeling setting, our experiments are more suggestive of the breadcrumbs hypothesis.

High-precision modeling of systems is one of the main areas of industrial data analysis. Models of systems, their digital twins, are used to predict their behavior under various conditions. We have developed several models of a storage system using machine learning-based generative models. The system consists of several components: hard disk drive (HDD) and solid-state drive (SSD) storage pools with different RAID schemes and cache. Each storage component is represented by a probabilistic model that describes the probability distribution of the component performance in terms of IOPS and latency, depending on their configuration and external data load parameters. The results of the experiments demonstrate the errors of 4-10 % for IOPS and 3-16 % for latency predictions depending on the components and models of the system. The predictions show up to 0.99 Pearson correlation with Little's law, which can be used for unsupervised reliability checks of the models. In addition, we present novel data sets that can be used for benchmarking regression algorithms, conditional generative models, and uncertainty estimation methods in machine learning.

Bayesian models of cognition have gained considerable traction in computational neuroscience and psychiatry. Their scopes are now expected to expand rapidly to artificial intelligence, providing general inference frameworks to support embodied, adaptable, and energy-efficient autonomous agents. A central theory in this domain is predictive coding, which posits that learning and behaviour are driven by hierarchical probabilistic inferences about the causes of sensory inputs. Biological realism constrains these networks to rely on simple local computations in the form of precision-weighted predictions and prediction errors. This can make this framework highly efficient, but its implementation comes with unique challenges on the software development side. Embedding such models in standard neural network libraries often becomes limiting, as these libraries' compilation and differentiation backends can force a conceptual separation between optimization algorithms and the systems being optimized. This critically departs from other biological principles such as self-monitoring, self-organisation, cellular growth and functional plasticity. In this paper, we introduce pyhgf: a Python package backed by JAX and Rust for creating, manipulating and sampling dynamic networks for predictive coding. We improve over other frameworks by enclosing the network components as transparent, modular and malleable variables in the message-passing steps. The resulting graphs can implement arbitrary computational complexities as beliefs propagation. But the transparency of core variables can also translate into inference processes that leverage self-organisation principles, and express structure learning, meta-learning or causal discovery as the consequence of network structural adaptation to surprising inputs. The code, tutorials and documentation are hosted at: https://github.com/ilabcode/pyhgf.

Sparse AutoEnocders (SAEs) have recently been employed as an unsupervised approach for understanding the inner workings of Large Language Models (LLMs). They reconstruct the model's activations with a sparse linear combination of interpretable features. However, training SAEs is computationally intensive, especially as models grow in size and complexity. To address this challenge, we propose a novel training strategy that reduces the number of trained SAEs from one per layer to one for a given group of contiguous layers. Our experimental results on Pythia 160M highlight a speedup of up to 6x without compromising the reconstruction quality and performance on downstream tasks. Therefore, layer clustering presents an efficient approach to train SAEs in modern LLMs.

In many domains, autoregressive models can attain high likelihood on the task of predicting the next observation. However, this maximum-likelihood (MLE) objective does not necessarily match a downstream use-case of autoregressively generating high-quality sequences. The MLE objective weights sequences proportionally to their frequency under the data distribution, with no guidance for the model's behaviour out of distribution (OOD): leading to compounding error during autoregressive generation. In order to address this compounding error problem, we formulate sequence generation as an imitation learning (IL) problem. This allows us to minimize a variety of divergences between the distribution of sequences generated by an autoregressive model and sequences from a dataset, including divergences with weight on OOD generated sequences. The IL framework also allows us to incorporate backtracking by introducing a backspace action into the generation process. This further mitigates the compounding error problem by allowing the model to revert a sampled token if it takes the sequence OOD. Our resulting method, SequenceMatch, can be implemented without adversarial training or major architectural changes. We identify the SequenceMatch-chi^2 divergence as a more suitable training objective for autoregressive models which are used for generation. We show that empirically, SequenceMatch training leads to improvements over MLE on text generation with language models.

The Automated Model Evaluation (AutoEval) framework entertains the possibility of evaluating a trained machine learning model without resorting to a labeled testing set. Despite the promise and some decent results, the existing AutoEval methods heavily rely on computing distribution shifts between the unlabelled testing set and the training set. We believe this reliance on the training set becomes another obstacle in shipping this technology to real-world ML development. In this work, we propose Contrastive Automatic Model Evaluation (CAME), a novel AutoEval framework that is rid of involving training set in the loop. The core idea of CAME bases on a theoretical analysis which bonds the model performance with a contrastive loss. Further, with extensive empirical validation, we manage to set up a predictable relationship between the two, simply by deducing on the unlabeled/unseen testing set. The resulting framework CAME establishes a new SOTA results for AutoEval by surpassing prior work significantly.

One of the predominant methods for training world models is autoregressive prediction in the output space of the next element of a sequence. In Natural Language Processing (NLP), this takes the form of Large Language Models (LLMs) predicting the next token; in Computer Vision (CV), this takes the form of autoregressive models predicting the next frame/token/pixel. However, this approach differs from human cognition in several respects. First, human predictions about the future actively influence internal cognitive processes. Second, humans naturally evaluate the plausibility of predictions regarding future states. Based on this capability, and third, by assessing when predictions are sufficient, humans allocate a dynamic amount of time to make a prediction. This adaptive process is analogous to System 2 thinking in psychology. All these capabilities are fundamental to the success of humans at high-level reasoning and planning. Therefore, to address the limitations of traditional autoregressive models lacking these human-like capabilities, we introduce Energy-Based World Models (EBWM). EBWM involves training an Energy-Based Model (EBM) to predict the compatibility of a given context and a predicted future state. In doing so, EBWM enables models to achieve all three facets of human cognition described. Moreover, we developed a variant of the traditional autoregressive transformer tailored for Energy-Based models, termed the Energy-Based Transformer (EBT). Our results demonstrate that EBWM scales better with data and GPU Hours than traditional autoregressive transformers in CV, and that EBWM offers promising early scaling in NLP. Consequently, this approach offers an exciting path toward training future models capable of System 2 thinking and intelligently searching across state spaces.

Recent empirical studies have demonstrated that diffusion models can effectively learn the image distribution and generate new samples. Remarkably, these models can achieve this even with a small number of training samples despite a large image dimension, circumventing the curse of dimensionality. In this work, we provide theoretical insights into this phenomenon by leveraging key empirical observations: (i) the low intrinsic dimensionality of image data, (ii) a union of manifold structure of image data, and (iii) the low-rank property of the denoising autoencoder in trained diffusion models. These observations motivate us to assume the underlying data distribution of image data as a mixture of low-rank Gaussians and to parameterize the denoising autoencoder as a low-rank model according to the score function of the assumed distribution. With these setups, we rigorously show that optimizing the training loss of diffusion models is equivalent to solving the canonical subspace clustering problem over the training samples. Based on this equivalence, we further show that the minimal number of samples required to learn the underlying distribution scales linearly with the intrinsic dimensions under the above data and model assumptions. This insight sheds light on why diffusion models can break the curse of dimensionality and exhibit the phase transition in learning distributions. Moreover, we empirically establish a correspondence between the subspaces and the semantic representations of image data, facilitating image editing. We validate these results with corroborated experimental results on both simulated distributions and image datasets.

Stochastic processes have found numerous applications in science, as they are broadly used to model a variety of natural phenomena. Due to their intrinsic randomness and uncertainty, they are however difficult to characterize. Here, we introduce an unsupervised machine learning approach to determine the minimal set of parameters required to effectively describe the dynamics of a stochastic process. Our method builds upon an extended beta-variational autoencoder architecture. By means of simulated datasets corresponding to paradigmatic diffusion models, we showcase its effectiveness in extracting the minimal relevant parameters that accurately describe these dynamics. Furthermore, the method enables the generation of new trajectories that faithfully replicate the expected stochastic behavior. Overall, our approach enables for the autonomous discovery of unknown parameters describing stochastic processes, hence enhancing our comprehension of complex phenomena across various fields.

We introduce the concept of programmable feature engineering for time series modeling and propose a feature programming framework. This framework generates large amounts of predictive features for noisy multivariate time series while allowing users to incorporate their inductive bias with minimal effort. The key motivation of our framework is to view any multivariate time series as a cumulative sum of fine-grained trajectory increments, with each increment governed by a novel spin-gas dynamical Ising model. This fine-grained perspective motivates the development of a parsimonious set of operators that summarize multivariate time series in an abstract fashion, serving as the foundation for large-scale automated feature engineering. Numerically, we validate the efficacy of our method on several synthetic and real-world noisy time series datasets.

The variational autoencoder (VAE) is a popular, deep, latent-variable model (DLVM) due to its simple yet effective formulation for modeling the data distribution. Moreover, optimizing the VAE objective function is more manageable than other DLVMs. The bottleneck dimension of the VAE is a crucial design choice, and it has strong ramifications for the model's performance, such as finding the hidden explanatory factors of a dataset using the representations learned by the VAE. However, the size of the latent dimension of the VAE is often treated as a hyperparameter estimated empirically through trial and error. To this end, we propose a statistical formulation to discover the relevant latent factors required for modeling a dataset. In this work, we use a hierarchical prior in the latent space that estimates the variance of the latent axes using the encoded data, which identifies the relevant latent dimensions. For this, we replace the fixed prior in the VAE objective function with a hierarchical prior, keeping the remainder of the formulation unchanged. We call the proposed method the automatic relevancy detection in the variational autoencoder (ARD-VAE). We demonstrate the efficacy of the ARD-VAE on multiple benchmark datasets in finding the relevant latent dimensions and their effect on different evaluation metrics, such as FID score and disentanglement analysis.

We introduce AutoGluon-TimeSeries - an open-source AutoML library for probabilistic time series forecasting. Focused on ease of use and robustness, AutoGluon-TimeSeries enables users to generate accurate point and quantile forecasts with just 3 lines of Python code. Built on the design philosophy of AutoGluon, AutoGluon-TimeSeries leverages ensembles of diverse forecasting models to deliver high accuracy within a short training time. AutoGluon-TimeSeries combines both conventional statistical models, machine-learning based forecasting approaches, and ensembling techniques. In our evaluation on 29 benchmark datasets, AutoGluon-TimeSeries demonstrates strong empirical performance, outperforming a range of forecasting methods in terms of both point and quantile forecast accuracy, and often even improving upon the best-in-hindsight combination of prior methods.

Decomposing model activations into interpretable components is a key open problem in mechanistic interpretability. Sparse autoencoders (SAEs) are a popular method for decomposing the internal activations of trained transformers into sparse, interpretable features, and have been applied to MLP layers and the residual stream. In this work we train SAEs on attention layer outputs and show that also here SAEs find a sparse, interpretable decomposition. We demonstrate this on transformers from several model families and up to 2B parameters. We perform a qualitative study of the features computed by attention layers, and find multiple families: long-range context, short-range context and induction features. We qualitatively study the role of every head in GPT-2 Small, and estimate that at least 90% of the heads are polysemantic, i.e. have multiple unrelated roles. Further, we show that Sparse Autoencoders are a useful tool that enable researchers to explain model behavior in greater detail than prior work. For example, we explore the mystery of why models have so many seemingly redundant induction heads, use SAEs to motivate the hypothesis that some are long-prefix whereas others are short-prefix, and confirm this with more rigorous analysis. We use our SAEs to analyze the computation performed by the Indirect Object Identification circuit (Wang et al.), validating that the SAEs find causally meaningful intermediate variables, and deepening our understanding of the semantics of the circuit. We open-source the trained SAEs and a tool for exploring arbitrary prompts through the lens of Attention Output SAEs.

Attention-based models such as Transformers and recurrent models like state space models (SSMs) have emerged as successful methods for autoregressive sequence modeling. Although both enable parallel training, none enable parallel generation due to their autoregressiveness. We propose the variational SSM (VSSM), a variational autoencoder (VAE) where both the encoder and decoder are SSMs. Since sampling the latent variables and decoding them with the SSM can be parallelized, both training and generation can be conducted in parallel. Moreover, the decoder recurrence allows generation to be resumed without reprocessing the whole sequence. Finally, we propose the autoregressive VSSM that can be conditioned on a partial realization of the sequence, as is common in language generation tasks. Interestingly, the autoregressive VSSM still enables parallel generation. We highlight on toy problems (MNIST, CIFAR) the empirical gains in speed-up and show that it competes with traditional models in terms of generation quality (Transformer, Mamba SSM).

Recently, deep learning has driven significant advancements in multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) tasks. However, much of the current research in MTSF tends to evaluate models from a holistic perspective, which obscures the individual contributions and leaves critical issues unaddressed. Adhering to the current modeling paradigms, this work bridges these gaps by systematically decomposing deep MTSF methods into their core, fine-grained components like series-patching tokenization, channel-independent strategy, attention modules, or even Large Language Models and Time-series Foundation Models. Through extensive experiments and component-level analysis, our work offers more profound insights than previous benchmarks that typically discuss models as a whole. Furthermore, we propose a novel automated solution called TSGym for MTSF tasks. Unlike traditional hyperparameter tuning, neural architecture searching or fixed model selection, TSGym performs fine-grained component selection and automated model construction, which enables the creation of more effective solutions tailored to diverse time series data, therefore enhancing model transferability across different data sources and robustness against distribution shifts. Extensive experiments indicate that TSGym significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art MTSF and AutoML methods. All code is publicly available on https://github.com/SUFE-AILAB/TSGym.

We focus on solving the univariate times series point forecasting problem using deep learning. We propose a deep neural architecture based on backward and forward residual links and a very deep stack of fully-connected layers. The architecture has a number of desirable properties, being interpretable, applicable without modification to a wide array of target domains, and fast to train. We test the proposed architecture on several well-known datasets, including M3, M4 and TOURISM competition datasets containing time series from diverse domains. We demonstrate state-of-the-art performance for two configurations of N-BEATS for all the datasets, improving forecast accuracy by 11% over a statistical benchmark and by 3% over last year's winner of the M4 competition, a domain-adjusted hand-crafted hybrid between neural network and statistical time series models. The first configuration of our model does not employ any time-series-specific components and its performance on heterogeneous datasets strongly suggests that, contrarily to received wisdom, deep learning primitives such as residual blocks are by themselves sufficient to solve a wide range of forecasting problems. Finally, we demonstrate how the proposed architecture can be augmented to provide outputs that are interpretable without considerable loss in accuracy.

While the activations of neurons in deep neural networks usually do not have a simple human-understandable interpretation, sparse autoencoders (SAEs) can be used to transform these activations into a higher-dimensional latent space which may be more easily interpretable. However, these SAEs can have millions of distinct latent features, making it infeasible for humans to manually interpret each one. In this work, we build an open-source automated pipeline to generate and evaluate natural language explanations for SAE features using LLMs. We test our framework on SAEs of varying sizes, activation functions, and losses, trained on two different open-weight LLMs. We introduce five new techniques to score the quality of explanations that are cheaper to run than the previous state of the art. One of these techniques, intervention scoring, evaluates the interpretability of the effects of intervening on a feature, which we find explains features that are not recalled by existing methods. We propose guidelines for generating better explanations that remain valid for a broader set of activating contexts, and discuss pitfalls with existing scoring techniques. We use our explanations to measure the semantic similarity of independently trained SAEs, and find that SAEs trained on nearby layers of the residual stream are highly similar. Our large-scale analysis confirms that SAE latents are indeed much more interpretable than neurons, even when neurons are sparsified using top-k postprocessing. Our code is available at https://github.com/EleutherAI/sae-auto-interp, and our explanations are available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/EleutherAI/auto_interp_explanations.

Self-supervised speech representations have been shown to be effective in a variety of speech applications. However, existing representation learning methods generally rely on the autoregressive model and/or observed global dependencies while generating the representation. In this work, we propose Non-Autoregressive Predictive Coding (NPC), a self-supervised method, to learn a speech representation in a non-autoregressive manner by relying only on local dependencies of speech. NPC has a conceptually simple objective and can be implemented easily with the introduced Masked Convolution Blocks. NPC offers a significant speedup for inference since it is parallelizable in time and has a fixed inference time for each time step regardless of the input sequence length. We discuss and verify the effectiveness of NPC by theoretically and empirically comparing it with other methods. We show that the NPC representation is comparable to other methods in speech experiments on phonetic and speaker classification while being more efficient.

In disentangled representation learning, the goal is to achieve a compact representation that consists of all interpretable generative factors in the observational data. Learning disentangled representations for graphs becomes increasingly important as graph data rapidly grows. Existing approaches often rely on Variational Auto-Encoder (VAE) or its causal structure learning-based refinement, which suffer from sub-optimality in VAEs due to the independence factor assumption and unavailability of concept labels, respectively. In this paper, we propose an unsupervised solution, dubbed concept-free causal disentanglement, built on a theoretically provable tight upper bound approximating the optimal factor. This results in an SCM-like causal structure modeling that directly learns concept structures from data. Based on this idea, we propose Concept-free Causal VGAE (CCVGAE) by incorporating a novel causal disentanglement layer into Variational Graph Auto-Encoder. Furthermore, we prove concept consistency under our concept-free causal disentanglement framework, hence employing it to enhance the meta-learning framework, called concept-free causal Meta-Graph (CC-Meta-Graph). We conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate the superiority of the proposed models: CCVGAE and CC-Meta-Graph, reaching up to 29% and 11% absolute improvements over baselines in terms of AUC, respectively.

Physics-based numerical models have been the bedrock of atmospheric sciences for decades, offering robust solutions but often at the cost of significant computational resources. Deep learning (DL) models have emerged as powerful tools in meteorology, capable of analyzing complex weather and climate data by learning intricate dependencies and providing rapid predictions once trained. While these models demonstrate promising performance in weather prediction, often surpassing traditional physics-based methods, they still face critical challenges. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of recent deep learning and foundation models for weather prediction. We propose a taxonomy to classify existing models based on their training paradigms: deterministic predictive learning, probabilistic generative learning, and pre-training and fine-tuning. For each paradigm, we delve into the underlying model architectures, address major challenges, offer key insights, and propose targeted directions for future research. Furthermore, we explore real-world applications of these methods and provide a curated summary of open-source code repositories and widely used datasets, aiming to bridge research advancements with practical implementations while fostering open and trustworthy scientific practices in adopting cutting-edge artificial intelligence for weather prediction. The related sources are available at https://github.com/JimengShi/ DL-Foundation-Models-Weather.

Among adversarial attacks against sequential recommender systems, model extraction attacks represent a method to attack sequential recommendation models without prior knowledge. Existing research has primarily concentrated on the adversary's execution of black-box attacks through data-free model extraction. However, a significant gap remains in the literature concerning the development of surrogate models by adversaries with access to few-shot raw data (10\% even less). That is, the challenge of how to construct a surrogate model with high functional similarity within the context of few-shot data scenarios remains an issue that requires resolution.This study addresses this gap by introducing a novel few-shot model extraction framework against sequential recommenders, which is designed to construct a superior surrogate model with the utilization of few-shot data. The proposed few-shot model extraction framework is comprised of two components: an autoregressive augmentation generation strategy and a bidirectional repair loss-facilitated model distillation procedure. Specifically, to generate synthetic data that closely approximate the distribution of raw data, autoregressive augmentation generation strategy integrates a probabilistic interaction sampler to extract inherent dependencies and a synthesis determinant signal module to characterize user behavioral patterns. Subsequently, bidirectional repair loss, which target the discrepancies between the recommendation lists, is designed as auxiliary loss to rectify erroneous predictions from surrogate models, transferring knowledge from the victim model to the surrogate model effectively. Experiments on three datasets show that the proposed few-shot model extraction framework yields superior surrogate models.

Machine learning methods can be a valuable aid in the scientific process, but they need to face challenging settings where data come from inhomogeneous experimental conditions. Recent meta-learning methods have made significant progress in multi-task learning, but they rely on black-box neural networks, resulting in high computational costs and limited interpretability. Leveraging the structure of the learning problem, we argue that multi-environment generalization can be achieved using a simpler learning model, with an affine structure with respect to the learning task. Crucially, we prove that this architecture can identify the physical parameters of the system, enabling interpreable learning. We demonstrate the competitive generalization performance and the low computational cost of our method by comparing it to state-of-the-art algorithms on physical systems, ranging from toy models to complex, non-analytical systems. The interpretability of our method is illustrated with original applications to physical-parameter-induced adaptation and to adaptive control.

Objective: Electroencephalography signals are recorded as a multidimensional dataset. We propose a new framework based on the augmented covariance extracted from an autoregressive model to improve motor imagery classification. Methods: From the autoregressive model can be derived the Yule-Walker equations, which show the emergence of a symmetric positive definite matrix: the augmented covariance matrix. The state-of the art for classifying covariance matrices is based on Riemannian Geometry. A fairly natural idea is therefore to extend the standard approach using these augmented covariance matrices. The methodology for creating the augmented covariance matrix shows a natural connection with the delay embedding theorem proposed by Takens for dynamical systems. Such an embedding method is based on the knowledge of two parameters: the delay and the embedding dimension, respectively related to the lag and the order of the autoregressive model. This approach provides new methods to compute the hyper-parameters in addition to standard grid search. Results: The augmented covariance matrix performed noticeably better than any state-of-the-art methods. We will test our approach on several datasets and several subjects using the MOABB framework, using both within-session and cross-session evaluation. Conclusion: The improvement in results is due to the fact that the augmented covariance matrix incorporates not only spatial but also temporal information, incorporating nonlinear components of the signal through an embedding procedure, which allows the leveraging of dynamical systems algorithms. Significance: These results extend the concepts and the results of the Riemannian distance based classification algorithm.

We present a conceptual framework, datamodeling, for analyzing the behavior of a model class in terms of the training data. For any fixed "target" example x, training set S, and learning algorithm, a datamodel is a parameterized function 2^S to R that for any subset of S' subset S -- using only information about which examples of S are contained in S' -- predicts the outcome of training a model on S' and evaluating on x. Despite the potential complexity of the underlying process being approximated (e.g., end-to-end training and evaluation of deep neural networks), we show that even simple linear datamodels can successfully predict model outputs. We then demonstrate that datamodels give rise to a variety of applications, such as: accurately predicting the effect of dataset counterfactuals; identifying brittle predictions; finding semantically similar examples; quantifying train-test leakage; and embedding data into a well-behaved and feature-rich representation space. Data for this paper (including pre-computed datamodels as well as raw predictions from four million trained deep neural networks) is available at https://github.com/MadryLab/datamodels-data .

In this paper, we focus on quantifying model stability as a function of random seed by investigating the effects of the induced randomness on model performance and the robustness of the model in general. We specifically perform a controlled study on the effect of random seeds on the behaviour of attention, gradient-based and surrogate model based (LIME) interpretations. Our analysis suggests that random seeds can adversely affect the consistency of models resulting in counterfactual interpretations. We propose a technique called Aggressive Stochastic Weight Averaging (ASWA)and an extension called Norm-filtered Aggressive Stochastic Weight Averaging (NASWA) which improves the stability of models over random seeds. With our ASWA and NASWA based optimization, we are able to improve the robustness of the original model, on average reducing the standard deviation of the model's performance by 72%.

Attention-based transformers have become the standard architecture in many deep learning fields, primarily due to their ability to model long-range dependencies and handle variable-length input sequences. However, the attention mechanism with its quadratic complexity is a significant bottleneck in the transformer architecture. This algorithm is only uni-directional in the decoder and converges to a static pattern in over-parametrized decoder-only models. I address this issue by developing a generative function as attention or activation replacement. It still has the auto-regressive character by comparing each token with the previous one. In my test setting with nanoGPT this yields a smaller loss while having a smaller model. The loss further drops by incorporating an average context vector. This concept of attention replacement is distributed under the GNU AGPL v3 license at https://gitlab.com/Bachstelze/causal_generation.

In this work, we provide a systematic survey of Discrete Diffusion Language Models (dLLMs) and Discrete Diffusion Multimodal Language Models (dMLLMs). Unlike autoregressive (AR) models, dLLMs and dMLLMs adopt a multi-token, parallel decoding paradigm using full attention and a denoising-based generation strategy. This paradigm naturally enables parallel generation, fine-grained output controllability, and dynamic, response-aware perception. These capabilities are previously difficult to achieve with AR models. Recently, a growing number of industrial-scale proprietary d(M)LLMs, as well as a large number of open-source academic d(M)LLMs, have demonstrated performance comparable to their autoregressive counterparts, while achieving up to 10x acceleration in inference speed. The advancement of discrete diffusion LLMs and MLLMs has been largely driven by progress in two domains. The first is the development of autoregressive LLMs and MLLMs, which has accumulated vast amounts of data, benchmarks, and foundational infrastructure for training and inference. The second contributing domain is the evolution of the mathematical models underlying discrete diffusion. Together, these advancements have catalyzed a surge in dLLMs and dMLLMs research in early 2025. In this work, we present a comprehensive overview of the research in the dLLM and dMLLM domains. We trace the historical development of dLLMs and dMLLMs, formalize the underlying mathematical frameworks, and categorize representative models. We further analyze key techniques for training and inference, and summarize emerging applications across language, vision-language, and biological domains. We conclude by discussing future directions for research and deployment. Paper collection: https://github.com/LiQiiiii/DLLM-Survey

Model compression is a critical technique to efficiently deploy neural network models on mobile devices which have limited computation resources and tight power budgets. Conventional model compression techniques rely on hand-crafted heuristics and rule-based policies that require domain experts to explore the large design space trading off among model size, speed, and accuracy, which is usually sub-optimal and time-consuming. In this paper, we propose AutoML for Model Compression (AMC) which leverage reinforcement learning to provide the model compression policy. This learning-based compression policy outperforms conventional rule-based compression policy by having higher compression ratio, better preserving the accuracy and freeing human labor. Under 4x FLOPs reduction, we achieved 2.7% better accuracy than the handcrafted model compression policy for VGG-16 on ImageNet. We applied this automated, push-the-button compression pipeline to MobileNet and achieved 1.81x speedup of measured inference latency on an Android phone and 1.43x speedup on the Titan XP GPU, with only 0.1% loss of ImageNet Top-1 accuracy.

Learning accurate predictive models of real-world dynamic phenomena (e.g., climate, biological) remains a challenging task. One key issue is that the data generated by both natural and artificial processes often comprise time series that are irregularly sampled and/or contain missing observations. In this work, we propose the Neural Continuous-Discrete State Space Model (NCDSSM) for continuous-time modeling of time series through discrete-time observations. NCDSSM employs auxiliary variables to disentangle recognition from dynamics, thus requiring amortized inference only for the auxiliary variables. Leveraging techniques from continuous-discrete filtering theory, we demonstrate how to perform accurate Bayesian inference for the dynamic states. We propose three flexible parameterizations of the latent dynamics and an efficient training objective that marginalizes the dynamic states during inference. Empirical results on multiple benchmark datasets across various domains show improved imputation and forecasting performance of NCDSSM over existing models.

Time series forecasting has been a widely explored task of great importance in many applications. However, it is common that real-world time series data are recorded in a short time period, which results in a big gap between the deep model and the limited and noisy time series. In this work, we propose to address the time series forecasting problem with generative modeling and propose a bidirectional variational auto-encoder (BVAE) equipped with diffusion, denoise, and disentanglement, namely D3VAE. Specifically, a coupled diffusion probabilistic model is proposed to augment the time series data without increasing the aleatoric uncertainty and implement a more tractable inference process with BVAE. To ensure the generated series move toward the true target, we further propose to adapt and integrate the multiscale denoising score matching into the diffusion process for time series forecasting. In addition, to enhance the interpretability and stability of the prediction, we treat the latent variable in a multivariate manner and disentangle them on top of minimizing total correlation. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world data show that D3VAE outperforms competitive algorithms with remarkable margins. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/PaddlePaddle/PaddleSpatial/tree/main/research/D3VAE.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

In recent years, exploiting the domain-specific underlying structure of data and its generative factors for representation learning has shown success in various use-case agnostic applications. However, the diversity and complexity of tabular data have made it challenging to represent these structures in a latent space through multi-dimensional vectors. We design an autoencoder-based framework for building general purpose embeddings, we assess the performance of different autoencoder architectures, and show simpler models outperform complex ones in embedding highly complex tabular data. We apply our framework to produce plug-and-play, rich, and anonymized embeddings representing AWS customers for usage in any model, saving up to 45% of development time, and observe significant improvements in downstream models. Moreover, we propose a significant improvement to the calculation of reconstruction loss for multi-layer contractive autoencoders (CAE) by calculating the Jacobian of the entire encoder leading to a 15% improvement in reconstruction quality when compared to a stacked CAE.

Recent years have seen significant advancements in foundation models through generative pre-training, yet algorithmic innovation in this space has largely stagnated around autoregressive models for discrete signals and diffusion models for continuous signals. This stagnation creates a bottleneck that prevents us from fully unlocking the potential of rich multi-modal data, which in turn limits the progress on multimodal intelligence. We argue that an inference-first perspective, which prioritizes scaling efficiency during inference time across sequence length and refinement steps, can inspire novel generative pre-training algorithms. Using Inductive Moment Matching (IMM) as a concrete example, we demonstrate how addressing limitations in diffusion models' inference process through targeted modifications yields a stable, single-stage algorithm that achieves superior sample quality with over an order of magnitude greater inference efficiency.

Feature engineering has demonstrated substantial utility for many machine learning workflows, such as in the small data regime or when distribution shifts are severe. Thus automating this capability can relieve much manual effort and improve model performance. Towards this, we propose AutoMAN, or Automated Mask-based Feature Engineering, an automated feature engineering framework that achieves high accuracy, low latency, and can be extended to heterogeneous and time-varying data. AutoMAN is based on effectively exploring the candidate transforms space, without explicitly manifesting transformed features. This is achieved by learning feature importance masks, which can be extended to support other modalities such as time series. AutoMAN learns feature transform importance end-to-end, incorporating a dataset's task target directly into feature engineering, resulting in state-of-the-art performance with significantly lower latency compared to alternatives.

Beginning with text and images, generative AI has expanded to audio, video, computer code, and molecules. Yet, if generative AI is the answer, what is the question? We explore the foundations of generation as a distinct machine learning task with connections to prediction, compression, and decision-making. We survey five major generative model families: autoregressive models, variational autoencoders, normalizing flows, generative adversarial networks, and diffusion models. We then introduce a probabilistic framework that emphasizes the distinction between density estimation and generation. We review a game-theoretic framework with a two-player adversary-learner setup to study generation. We discuss post-training modifications that prepare generative models for deployment. We end by highlighting some important topics in socially responsible generation such as privacy, detection of AI-generated content, and copyright and IP. We adopt a task-first framing of generation, focusing on what generation is as a machine learning problem, rather than only on how models implement it.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have recently gained significant attention due to their strong zero-shot capabilities and widespread real-world applications. Such models typically require a computationally costly pretraining on large-scale, carefully curated collections of real-world sequences. To allow for a sample-efficient pretraining of TSFMs, we propose CauKer, a novel algorithm designed to generate diverse, causally coherent synthetic time series with realistic trends, seasonality, and nonlinear interactions. CauKer combines Gaussian Process (GP) kernel composition with Structural Causal Models (SCM) to produce data for sample-efficient pretraining of state-of-the-art classification TSFMs having different architectures and following different pretraining approaches. Additionally, our experiments reveal that CauKer-generated datasets exhibit clear scaling laws for both dataset size (10K to 10M samples) and model capacity (1M to 783M parameters), unlike real-world datasets, which display irregular scaling behavior.

In this paper, we present a new approach to time series forecasting. Time series data are prevalent in many scientific and engineering disciplines. Time series forecasting is a crucial task in modeling time series data, and is an important area of machine learning. In this work we developed a novel method that employs Transformer-based machine learning models to forecast time series data. This approach works by leveraging self-attention mechanisms to learn complex patterns and dynamics from time series data. Moreover, it is a generic framework and can be applied to univariate and multivariate time series data, as well as time series embeddings. Using influenza-like illness (ILI) forecasting as a case study, we show that the forecasting results produced by our approach are favorably comparable to the state-of-the-art.

As large language models (LMs) advance, there is an increasing need to control their outputs to align with human values (e.g., detoxification) or desired attributes (e.g., personalization, topic). However, autoregressive models focus on next-token predictions and struggle with global properties that require looking ahead. Existing solutions either tune or post-train LMs for each new attribute - expensive and inflexible - or approximate the Expected Attribute Probability (EAP) of future sequences by sampling or training, which is slow and unreliable for rare attributes. We introduce TRACE (Tractable Probabilistic Reasoning for Adaptable Controllable gEneration), a novel framework that efficiently computes EAP and adapts to new attributes through tractable probabilistic reasoning and lightweight control. TRACE distills a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) from an LM and pairs it with a small classifier to estimate attribute probabilities, enabling exact EAP computation over the HMM's predicted futures. This EAP is then used to reweigh the LM's next-token probabilities for globally compliant continuations. Empirically, TRACE achieves state-of-the-art results in detoxification with only 10% decoding overhead, adapts to 76 low-resource personalized LLMs within seconds, and seamlessly extends to composite attributes.

State-space models (SSMs) have recently emerged as a framework for learning long-range sequence tasks. An example is the structured state-space sequence (S4) layer, which uses the diagonal-plus-low-rank structure of the HiPPO initialization framework. However, the complicated structure of the S4 layer poses challenges; and, in an effort to address these challenges, models such as S4D and S5 have considered a purely diagonal structure. This choice simplifies the implementation, improves computational efficiency, and allows channel communication. However, diagonalizing the HiPPO framework is itself an ill-posed problem. In this paper, we propose a general solution for this and related ill-posed diagonalization problems in machine learning. We introduce a generic, backward-stable "perturb-then-diagonalize" (PTD) methodology, which is based on the pseudospectral theory of non-normal operators, and which may be interpreted as the approximate diagonalization of the non-normal matrices defining SSMs. Based on this, we introduce the S4-PTD and S5-PTD models. Through theoretical analysis of the transfer functions of different initialization schemes, we demonstrate that the S4-PTD/S5-PTD initialization strongly converges to the HiPPO framework, while the S4D/S5 initialization only achieves weak convergences. As a result, our new models show resilience to Fourier-mode noise-perturbed inputs, a crucial property not achieved by the S4D/S5 models. In addition to improved robustness, our S5-PTD model averages 87.6% accuracy on the Long-Range Arena benchmark, demonstrating that the PTD methodology helps to improve the accuracy of deep learning models.

Modeling multivariate time series is a well-established problem with a wide range of applications from healthcare to financial markets. Traditional State Space Models (SSMs) are classical approaches for univariate time series modeling due to their simplicity and expressive power to represent linear dependencies. They, however, have fundamentally limited expressive power to capture non-linear dependencies, are slow in practice, and fail to model the inter-variate information flow. Despite recent attempts to improve the expressive power of SSMs by using deep structured SSMs, the existing methods are either limited to univariate time series, fail to model complex patterns (e.g., seasonal patterns), fail to dynamically model the dependencies of variate and time dimensions, and/or are input-independent. We present Chimera that uses two input-dependent 2-D SSM heads with different discretization processes to learn long-term progression and seasonal patterns. To improve the efficiency of complex 2D recurrence, we present a fast training using a new 2-dimensional parallel selective scan. We further present and discuss 2-dimensional Mamba and Mamba-2 as the spacial cases of our 2D SSM. Our experimental evaluation shows the superior performance of Chimera on extensive and diverse benchmarks, including ECG and speech time series classification, long-term and short-term time series forecasting, and time series anomaly detection.

Linear time-invariant state space models (SSM) are a classical model from engineering and statistics, that have recently been shown to be very promising in machine learning through the Structured State Space sequence model (S4). A core component of S4 involves initializing the SSM state matrix to a particular matrix called a HiPPO matrix, which was empirically important for S4's ability to handle long sequences. However, the specific matrix that S4 uses was actually derived in previous work for a particular time-varying dynamical system, and the use of this matrix as a time-invariant SSM had no known mathematical interpretation. Consequently, the theoretical mechanism by which S4 models long-range dependencies actually remains unexplained. We derive a more general and intuitive formulation of the HiPPO framework, which provides a simple mathematical interpretation of S4 as a decomposition onto exponentially-warped Legendre polynomials, explaining its ability to capture long dependencies. Our generalization introduces a theoretically rich class of SSMs that also lets us derive more intuitive S4 variants for other bases such as the Fourier basis, and explains other aspects of training S4, such as how to initialize the important timescale parameter. These insights improve S4's performance to 86% on the Long Range Arena benchmark, with 96% on the most difficult Path-X task.

Text-to-speech (TTS) methods have shown promising results in voice cloning, but they require a large number of labeled text-speech pairs. Minimally-supervised speech synthesis decouples TTS by combining two types of discrete speech representations(semantic \& acoustic) and using two sequence-to-sequence tasks to enable training with minimal supervision. However, existing methods suffer from information redundancy and dimension explosion in semantic representation, and high-frequency waveform distortion in discrete acoustic representation. Autoregressive frameworks exhibit typical instability and uncontrollability issues. And non-autoregressive frameworks suffer from prosodic averaging caused by duration prediction models. To address these issues, we propose a minimally-supervised high-fidelity speech synthesis method, where all modules are constructed based on the diffusion models. The non-autoregressive framework enhances controllability, and the duration diffusion model enables diversified prosodic expression. Contrastive Token-Acoustic Pretraining (CTAP) is used as an intermediate semantic representation to solve the problems of information redundancy and dimension explosion in existing semantic coding methods. Mel-spectrogram is used as the acoustic representation. Both semantic and acoustic representations are predicted by continuous variable regression tasks to solve the problem of high-frequency fine-grained waveform distortion. Experimental results show that our proposed method outperforms the baseline method. We provide audio samples on our website.

Generating realistic time series data is important for many engineering and scientific applications. Existing work tackles this problem using generative adversarial networks (GANs). However, GANs are often unstable during training, and they can suffer from mode collapse. While variational autoencoders (VAEs) are known to be more robust to these issues, they are (surprisingly) less often considered for time series generation. In this work, we introduce Koopman VAE (KVAE), a new generative framework that is based on a novel design for the model prior, and that can be optimized for either regular and irregular training data. Inspired by Koopman theory, we represent the latent conditional prior dynamics using a linear map. Our approach enhances generative modeling with two desired features: (i) incorporating domain knowledge can be achieved by leverageing spectral tools that prescribe constraints on the eigenvalues of the linear map; and (ii) studying the qualitative behavior and stablity of the system can be performed using tools from dynamical systems theory. Our results show that KVAE outperforms state-of-the-art GAN and VAE methods across several challenging synthetic and real-world time series generation benchmarks. Whether trained on regular or irregular data, KVAE generates time series that improve both discriminative and predictive metrics. We also present visual evidence suggesting that KVAE learns probability density functions that better approximate empirical ground truth distributions.

Diffusion models are a class of generative models that learn to synthesize samples by inverting a diffusion process that gradually maps data into noise. While these models have enjoyed great success recently, a full theoretical understanding of their observed properties is still lacking, in particular, their weak sensitivity to the choice of noise family and the role of adequate scheduling of noise levels for good synthesis. By identifying a correspondence between diffusion models and a well-known paradigm in cognitive science known as serial reproduction, whereby human agents iteratively observe and reproduce stimuli from memory, we show how the aforementioned properties of diffusion models can be explained as a natural consequence of this correspondence. We then complement our theoretical analysis with simulations that exhibit these key features. Our work highlights how classic paradigms in cognitive science can shed light on state-of-the-art machine learning problems.

Reversing a diffusion process by learning its score forms the heart of diffusion-based generative modeling and for estimating properties of scientific systems. The diffusion processes that are tractable center on linear processes with a Gaussian stationary distribution. This limits the kinds of models that can be built to those that target a Gaussian prior or more generally limits the kinds of problems that can be generically solved to those that have conditionally linear score functions. In this work, we introduce a family of tractable denoising score matching objectives, called local-DSM, built using local increments of the diffusion process. We show how local-DSM melded with Taylor expansions enables automated training and score estimation with nonlinear diffusion processes. To demonstrate these ideas, we use automated-DSM to train generative models using non-Gaussian priors on challenging low dimensional distributions and the CIFAR10 image dataset. Additionally, we use the automated-DSM to learn the scores for nonlinear processes studied in statistical physics.

State space models have shown to be effective at modeling long range dependencies, specially on sequence classification tasks. In this work we focus on autoregressive sequence modeling over English books, Github source code and ArXiv mathematics articles. Based on recent developments around the effectiveness of gated activation functions, we propose a new layer named Gated State Space (GSS) and show that it trains significantly faster than the diagonal version of S4 (i.e. DSS) on TPUs, is fairly competitive with several well-tuned Transformer-based baselines and exhibits zero-shot generalization to longer inputs while being straightforward to implement. Finally, we show that leveraging self-attention to model local dependencies improves the performance of GSS even further.

As AI model size grows, neural scaling laws have become a crucial tool to predict the improvements of large models when increasing capacity and the size of original (human or natural) training data. Yet, the widespread use of popular models means that the ecosystem of online data and text will co-evolve to progressively contain increased amounts of synthesized data. In this paper we ask: How will the scaling laws change in the inevitable regime where synthetic data makes its way into the training corpus? Will future models, still improve, or be doomed to degenerate up to total (model) collapse? We develop a theoretical framework of model collapse through the lens of scaling laws. We discover a wide range of decay phenomena, analyzing loss of scaling, shifted scaling with number of generations, the ''un-learning" of skills, and grokking when mixing human and synthesized data. Our theory is validated by large-scale experiments with a transformer on an arithmetic task and text generation using the large language model Llama2.

This work explores the in-context learning capabilities of State Space Models (SSMs) and presents, to the best of our knowledge, the first theoretical explanation of a possible underlying mechanism. We introduce a novel weight construction for SSMs, enabling them to predict the next state of any dynamical system after observing previous states without parameter fine-tuning. This is accomplished by extending the HiPPO framework to demonstrate that continuous SSMs can approximate the derivative of any input signal. Specifically, we find an explicit weight construction for continuous SSMs and provide an asymptotic error bound on the derivative approximation. The discretization of this continuous SSM subsequently yields a discrete SSM that predicts the next state. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our parameterization empirically. This work should be an initial step toward understanding how sequence models based on SSMs learn in context.

In recent years, generative pre-trained paradigms such as Large Language Models (LLMs) and Large Vision Models (LVMs) have achieved revolutionary advancements and widespread real-world applications. Particularly, the emergence of pre-trained LLMs-based temporal works, compared to previous deep model approaches, has demonstrated superior generalization and robustness, showcasing the potential of generative pre-trained paradigms as foundation models for time series. However, those LLMs-based works mainly focus on cross-modal research, i.e., leveraging the language capabilities of LLMs in time series contexts. Although they have achieved impressive performance, there still exist the issues of concept drift caused by differences in data distribution and inflexibility caused by misalignment of dimensions. To this end, inspired by recent work on LVMs, we reconsider the paradigm of time series modeling. In this paper, we comprehensively explore, for the first time, the effectiveness and superiority of the Generative Pre-trained Diffusion (GPD) paradigm in real-world multivariate time series forecasting (TSF). Specifically, to mitigate performance bias introduced by sophisticated networks, we propose a straightforward MLP diffusion network for unconditional modeling of time series. Then we employ a zero-shot and tuning-free method to predict (generate) future data using historical data as prompts. The GPD paradigm is established on the time series modality, effectively preventing the phenomenon of concept drift, and enabling flexible forecasting of arbitrary lengths. We demonstrate that the GPD paradigm achieves comprehensive performance and generalization comparable to current SOTA LLM-based and deep model paradigms on mainstream benchmarks and various TSF tasks. Extensive experiments validate the potential of the GPD paradigm and its assistance in future related research.

We propose a novel interpretation technique to explain the behavior of structured output models, which learn mappings between an input vector to a set of output variables simultaneously. Because of the complex relationship between the computational path of output variables in structured models, a feature can affect the value of output through other ones. We focus on one of the outputs as the target and try to find the most important features utilized by the structured model to decide on the target in each locality of the input space. In this paper, we assume an arbitrary structured output model is available as a black box and argue how considering the correlations between output variables can improve the explanation performance. The goal is to train a function as an interpreter for the target output variable over the input space. We introduce an energy-based training process for the interpreter function, which effectively considers the structural information incorporated into the model to be explained. The effectiveness of the proposed method is confirmed using a variety of simulated and real data sets.

We introduce the concept of Automated Causal Discovery (AutoCD), defined as any system that aims to fully automate the application of causal discovery and causal reasoning methods. AutoCD's goal is to deliver all causal information that an expert human analyst would and answer a user's causal queries. We describe the architecture of such a platform, and illustrate its performance on synthetic data sets. As a case study, we apply it on temporal telecommunication data. The system is general and can be applied to a plethora of causal discovery problems.

This study introduces PV-RNN, a novel variational RNN inspired by the predictive-coding ideas. The model learns to extract the probabilistic structures hidden in fluctuating temporal patterns by dynamically changing the stochasticity of its latent states. Its architecture attempts to address two major concerns of variational Bayes RNNs: how can latent variables learn meaningful representations and how can the inference model transfer future observations to the latent variables. PV-RNN does both by introducing adaptive vectors mirroring the training data, whose values can then be adapted differently during evaluation. Moreover, prediction errors during backpropagation, rather than external inputs during the forward computation, are used to convey information to the network about the external data. For testing, we introduce error regression for predicting unseen sequences as inspired by predictive coding that leverages those mechanisms. The model introduces a weighting parameter, the meta-prior, to balance the optimization pressure placed on two terms of a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the sequential data. We test the model on two datasets with probabilistic structures and show that with high values of the meta-prior the network develops deterministic chaos through which the data's randomness is imitated. For low values, the model behaves as a random process. The network performs best on intermediate values, and is able to capture the latent probabilistic structure with good generalization. Analyzing the meta-prior's impact on the network allows to precisely study the theoretical value and practical benefits of incorporating stochastic dynamics in our model. We demonstrate better prediction performance on a robot imitation task with our model using error regression compared to a standard variational Bayes model lacking such a procedure.

In this paper, we investigate the long-term memory learning capabilities of state-space models (SSMs) from the perspective of parameterization. We prove that state-space models without any reparameterization exhibit a memory limitation similar to that of traditional RNNs: the target relationships that can be stably approximated by state-space models must have an exponential decaying memory. Our analysis identifies this "curse of memory" as a result of the recurrent weights converging to a stability boundary, suggesting that a reparameterization technique can be effective. To this end, we introduce a class of reparameterization techniques for SSMs that effectively lift its memory limitations. Besides improving approximation capabilities, we further illustrate that a principled choice of reparameterization scheme can also enhance optimization stability. We validate our findings using synthetic datasets and language models.

The autoencoder is an unsupervised learning paradigm that aims to create a compact latent representation of data by minimizing the reconstruction loss. However, it tends to overlook the fact that most data (images) are embedded in a lower-dimensional space, which is crucial for effective data representation. To address this limitation, we propose a novel approach called Low-Rank Autoencoder (LoRAE). In LoRAE, we incorporated a low-rank regularizer to adaptively reconstruct a low-dimensional latent space while preserving the basic objective of an autoencoder. This helps embed the data in a lower-dimensional space while preserving important information. It is a simple autoencoder extension that learns low-rank latent space. Theoretically, we establish a tighter error bound for our model. Empirically, our model's superiority shines through various tasks such as image generation and downstream classification. Both theoretical and practical outcomes highlight the importance of acquiring low-dimensional embeddings.