Daily Papers

We develop task scaling laws and model ladders to predict the individual task performance of pretrained language models (LMs) in the overtrained setting. Standard power laws for language modeling loss cannot accurately model task performance. Therefore, we leverage a two-step prediction approach: first use model and data size to predict a task-specific loss, and then use this task loss to predict task performance. We train a set of small-scale "ladder" models, collect data points to fit the parameterized functions of the two prediction steps, and make predictions for two target models: a 7B model trained to 4T tokens and a 13B model trained to 5T tokens. Training the ladder models only costs 1% of the compute used for the target models. On four multiple-choice tasks written in ranked classification format, we can predict the accuracy of both target models within 2 points of absolute error. We have higher prediction error on four other tasks (average absolute error 6.9) and find that these are often tasks with higher variance in task metrics. We also find that using less compute to train fewer ladder models tends to deteriorate predictions. Finally, we empirically show that our design choices and the two-step approach lead to superior performance in establishing scaling laws.

Lyrics alignment gained considerable attention in recent years. State-of-the-art systems either re-use established speech recognition toolkits, or design end-to-end solutions involving a Connectionist Temporal Classification (CTC) loss. However, both approaches suffer from specific weaknesses: toolkits are known for their complexity, and CTC systems use a loss designed for transcription which can limit alignment accuracy. In this paper, we use instead a contrastive learning procedure that derives cross-modal embeddings linking the audio and text domains. This way, we obtain a novel system that is simple to train end-to-end, can make use of weakly annotated training data, jointly learns a powerful text model, and is tailored to alignment. The system is not only the first to yield an average absolute error below 0.2 seconds on the standard Jamendo dataset but it is also robust to other languages, even when trained on English data only. Finally, we release word-level alignments for the JamendoLyrics Multi-Lang dataset.

We investigate large language model performance across five orders of magnitude of compute scaling in eleven recent model architectures. We show that average benchmark performance, aggregating over many individual tasks and evaluations as in the commonly-used BIG-Bench dataset, is decently predictable as a function of training compute scale. Specifically, when extrapolating BIG-Bench Hard performance across one order of magnitude in compute, we observe average absolute errors of 6 percentage points (pp). By contrast, extrapolation for individual BIG-Bench tasks across an order of magnitude in compute yields higher average errors of 18pp. Nonetheless, individual task performance remains significantly more predictable than chance. Overall, our work suggests compute scaling provides a promising basis to forecast AI capabilities in diverse benchmarks, though predicting performance in specific tasks poses challenges.

Accurate extraction of heart rate from photoplethysmography (PPG) signals remains challenging due to motion artifacts and signal degradation. Although deep learning methods trained as a data-driven inference problem offer promising solutions, they often underutilize existing knowledge from the medical and signal processing community. In this paper, we address three shortcomings of deep learning models: motion artifact removal, degradation assessment, and physiologically plausible analysis of the PPG signal. We propose KID-PPG, a knowledge-informed deep learning model that integrates expert knowledge through adaptive linear filtering, deep probabilistic inference, and data augmentation. We evaluate KID-PPG on the PPGDalia dataset, achieving an average mean absolute error of 2.85 beats per minute, surpassing existing reproducible methods. Our results demonstrate a significant performance improvement in heart rate tracking through the incorporation of prior knowledge into deep learning models. This approach shows promise in enhancing various biomedical applications by incorporating existing expert knowledge in deep learning models.

As a robust and large-scale multilingual speech recognition model, Whisper has demonstrated impressive results in many low-resource and out-of-distribution scenarios. However, its encoder-decoder structure hinders its application to streaming speech recognition. In this paper, we introduce Simul-Whisper, which uses the time alignment embedded in Whisper's cross-attention to guide auto-regressive decoding and achieve chunk-based streaming ASR without any fine-tuning of the pre-trained model. Furthermore, we observe the negative effect of the truncated words at the chunk boundaries on the decoding results and propose an integrate-and-fire-based truncation detection model to address this issue. Experiments on multiple languages and Whisper architectures show that Simul-Whisper achieves an average absolute word error rate degradation of only 1.46% at a chunk size of 1 second, which significantly outperforms the current state-of-the-art baseline.

Multivariable time series forecasting methods can integrate information from exogenous variables, leading to significant prediction accuracy gains. Transformer architecture has been widely applied in various time series forecasting models due to its ability to capture long-range sequential dependencies. However, a na\"ive application of transformers often struggles to effectively model complex relationships among variables over time. To mitigate against this, we propose a novel architecture, namely the Spectral Operator Neural Network (Sonnet). Sonnet applies learnable wavelet transformations to the input and incorporates spectral analysis using the Koopman operator. Its predictive skill relies on the Multivariable Coherence Attention (MVCA), an operation that leverages spectral coherence to model variable dependencies. Our empirical analysis shows that Sonnet yields the best performance on 34 out of 47 forecasting tasks with an average mean absolute error (MAE) reduction of 1.1% against the most competitive baseline (different per task). We further show that MVCA -- when put in place of the na\"ive attention used in various deep learning models -- can remedy its deficiencies, reducing MAE by 10.7% on average in the most challenging forecasting tasks.

Recent advances in 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) have enabled RGB-only SLAM systems to achieve high-fidelity scene representation. However, the heavy reliance of existing systems on photometric rendering loss for camera tracking undermines their robustness, especially in unbounded outdoor environments with severe viewpoint and illumination changes. To address these challenges, we propose TVG-SLAM, a robust RGB-only 3DGS SLAM system that leverages a novel tri-view geometry paradigm to ensure consistent tracking and high-quality mapping. We introduce a dense tri-view matching module that aggregates reliable pairwise correspondences into consistent tri-view matches, forming robust geometric constraints across frames. For tracking, we propose Hybrid Geometric Constraints, which leverage tri-view matches to construct complementary geometric cues alongside photometric loss, ensuring accurate and stable pose estimation even under drastic viewpoint shifts and lighting variations. For mapping, we propose a new probabilistic initialization strategy that encodes geometric uncertainty from tri-view correspondences into newly initialized Gaussians. Additionally, we design a Dynamic Attenuation of Rendering Trust mechanism to mitigate tracking drift caused by mapping latency. Experiments on multiple public outdoor datasets show that our TVG-SLAM outperforms prior RGB-only 3DGS-based SLAM systems. Notably, in the most challenging dataset, our method improves tracking robustness, reducing the average Absolute Trajectory Error (ATE) by 69.0\% while achieving state-of-the-art rendering quality. The implementation of our method will be released as open-source.

One straightforward metric to evaluate a survival prediction model is based on the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) -- the average of the absolute difference between the time predicted by the model and the true event time, over all subjects. Unfortunately, this is challenging because, in practice, the test set includes (right) censored individuals, meaning we do not know when a censored individual actually experienced the event. In this paper, we explore various metrics to estimate MAE for survival datasets that include (many) censored individuals. Moreover, we introduce a novel and effective approach for generating realistic semi-synthetic survival datasets to facilitate the evaluation of metrics. Our findings, based on the analysis of the semi-synthetic datasets, reveal that our proposed metric (MAE using pseudo-observations) is able to rank models accurately based on their performance, and often closely matches the true MAE -- in particular, is better than several alternative methods.

As the use of Lithium-ion batteries continues to grow, it becomes increasingly important to be able to predict their remaining useful life. This work aims to compare the relative performance of different machine learning algorithms, both traditional machine learning and deep learning, in order to determine the best-performing algorithms for battery cycle life prediction based on minimal data. We investigated 14 different machine learning models that were fed handcrafted features based on statistical data and split into 3 feature groups for testing. For deep learning models, we tested a variety of neural network models including different configurations of standard Recurrent Neural Networks, Gated Recurrent Units, and Long Short Term Memory with and without attention mechanism. Deep learning models were fed multivariate time series signals based on the raw data for each battery across the first 100 cycles. Our experiments revealed that the machine learning algorithms on handcrafted features performed particularly well, resulting in 10-20% average mean absolute percentage error. The best-performing algorithm was the Random Forest Regressor, which gave a minimum 9.8% mean absolute percentage error. Traditional machine learning models excelled due to their capability to comprehend general data set trends. In comparison, deep learning models were observed to perform particularly poorly on raw, limited data. Algorithms like GRU and RNNs that focused on capturing medium-range data dependencies were less adept at recognizing the gradual, slow trends critical for this task. Our investigation reveals that implementing machine learning models with hand-crafted features proves to be more effective than advanced deep learning models for predicting the remaining useful Lithium-ion battery life with limited data availability.

In this work, we present a novel physics-based data-driven framework for reduced-order modeling of laser ignition in a model rocket combustor based on parameterized neural ordinary differential equations (PNODE). Deep neural networks are embedded as functions of high-dimensional parameters of laser ignition to predict various terms in a 0D flow model including the heat source function, pre-exponential factors, and activation energy. Using the governing equations of a 0D flow model, our PNODE needs only a limited number of training samples and predicts trajectories of various quantities such as temperature, pressure, and mass fractions of species while satisfying physical constraints. We validate our physics-based PNODE on solution snapshots of high-fidelity Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations of laser-induced ignition in a prototype rocket combustor. We compare the performance of our physics-based PNODE with that of kernel ridge regression and fully connected neural networks. Our results show that our physics-based PNODE provides solutions with lower mean absolute errors of average temperature over time, thus improving the prediction of successful laser ignition with high-dimensional parameters.

Medical vision-language models often struggle with generating accurate quantitative measurements in radiology reports, leading to hallucinations that undermine clinical reliability. We introduce FactCheXcker, a modular framework that de-hallucinates radiology report measurements by leveraging an improved query-code-update paradigm. Specifically, FactCheXcker employs specialized modules and the code generation capabilities of large language models to solve measurement queries generated based on the original report. After extracting measurable findings, the results are incorporated into an updated report. We evaluate FactCheXcker on endotracheal tube placement, which accounts for an average of 78% of report measurements, using the MIMIC-CXR dataset and 11 medical report-generation models. Our results show that FactCheXcker significantly reduces hallucinations, improves measurement precision, and maintains the quality of the original reports. Specifically, FactCheXcker improves the performance of 10/11 models and achieves an average improvement of 135.0% in reducing measurement hallucinations measured by mean absolute error. Code is available at https://github.com/rajpurkarlab/FactCheXcker.

GPUs are the most popular platform for accelerating HPC workloads, such as artificial intelligence and science simulations. However, most microarchitectural research in academia relies on GPU core pipeline designs based on architectures that are more than 15 years old. This paper reverse engineers modern NVIDIA GPU cores, unveiling many key aspects of its design and explaining how GPUs leverage hardware-compiler techniques where the compiler guides hardware during execution. In particular, it reveals how the issue logic works including the policy of the issue scheduler, the structure of the register file and its associated cache, and multiple features of the memory pipeline. Moreover, it analyses how a simple instruction prefetcher based on a stream buffer fits well with modern NVIDIA GPUs and is likely to be used. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of the register file cache and the number of register file read ports on both simulation accuracy and performance. By modeling all these new discovered microarchitectural details, we achieve 18.24% lower mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) in execution cycles than previous state-of-the-art simulators, resulting in an average of 13.98% MAPE with respect to real hardware (NVIDIA RTX A6000). Also, we demonstrate that this new model stands for other NVIDIA architectures, such as Turing. Finally, we show that the software-based dependence management mechanism included in modern NVIDIA GPUs outperforms a hardware mechanism based on scoreboards in terms of performance and area.

In the radiation therapy of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), clinicians typically delineate the gross tumor volume (GTV) using non-contrast planning computed tomography to ensure accurate radiation dose delivery. However, the low contrast between tumors and adjacent normal tissues necessitates that radiation oncologists manually delineate the tumors, often relying on diagnostic MRI for guidance. % In this study, we propose a novel approach to directly segment NPC gross tumors on non-contrast planning CT images, circumventing potential registration errors when aligning MRI or MRI-derived tumor masks to planning CT. To address the low contrast issues between tumors and adjacent normal structures in planning CT, we introduce a 3D Semantic Asymmetry Tumor segmentation (SATs) method. Specifically, we posit that a healthy nasopharyngeal region is characteristically bilaterally symmetric, whereas the emergence of nasopharyngeal carcinoma disrupts this symmetry. Then, we propose a Siamese contrastive learning segmentation framework that minimizes the voxel-wise distance between original and flipped areas without tumor and encourages a larger distance between original and flipped areas with tumor. Thus, our approach enhances the sensitivity of features to semantic asymmetries. % Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed SATs achieves the leading NPC GTV segmentation performance in both internal and external testing, e.g., with at least 2\% absolute Dice score improvement and 12\% average distance error reduction when compared to other state-of-the-art methods in the external testing.

With the advancement of Self-supervised Learning (SSL) in speech-related tasks, there has been growing interest in utilizing discrete tokens generated by SSL for automatic speech recognition (ASR), as they offer faster processing techniques. However, previous studies primarily focused on multilingual ASR with Fbank features or English ASR with discrete tokens, leaving a gap in adapting discrete tokens for multilingual ASR scenarios. This study presents a comprehensive comparison of discrete tokens generated by various leading SSL models across multiple language domains. We aim to explore the performance and efficiency of speech discrete tokens across multiple language domains for both monolingual and multilingual ASR scenarios. Experimental results demonstrate that discrete tokens achieve comparable results against systems trained on Fbank features in ASR tasks across seven language domains with an average word error rate (WER) reduction of 0.31% and 1.76% absolute (2.80% and 15.70% relative) on dev and test sets respectively, with particularly WER reduction of 6.82% absolute (41.48% relative) on the Polish test set.

One of the goals of automatic evaluation metrics in grammatical error correction (GEC) is to rank GEC systems such that it matches human preferences. However, current automatic evaluations are based on procedures that diverge from human evaluation. Specifically, human evaluation derives rankings by aggregating sentence-level relative evaluation results, e.g., pairwise comparisons, using a rating algorithm, whereas automatic evaluation averages sentence-level absolute scores to obtain corpus-level scores, which are then sorted to determine rankings. In this study, we propose an aggregation method for existing automatic evaluation metrics which aligns with human evaluation methods to bridge this gap. We conducted experiments using various metrics, including edit-based metrics, n-gram based metrics, and sentence-level metrics, and show that resolving the gap improves results for the most of metrics on the SEEDA benchmark. We also found that even BERT-based metrics sometimes outperform the metrics of GPT-4. The proposed ranking method is integrated gec-metrics.