Daily Papers

While reasoning models (e.g., DeepSeek R1) trained with reinforcement learning (RL), excel in textual reasoning, they struggle in scenarios requiring structured problem-solving, such as geometric reasoning, concise computation, or complex equation solving-areas where computational tools like code interpreters (CI) demonstrate distinct advantages. To bridge this gap, we propose ReTool, which enhances long-form reasoning with tool-integrated learning, including two key features: (1) dynamic interleaving of real-time code execution within natural language reasoning processes, and (2) an automated RL paradigm that allows policy rollouts with multi-turn real-time code execution and teaches the model in learning when and how to invoke tools based on outcome feedback. ReTool employs a systematic training framework, beginning with synthetic cold-start data generation to produce code-augmented long-form reasoning traces for fine-tuning base models. Subsequent RL training leverages task outcomes as rewards to iteratively refine the model's tool use strategy, enabling autonomous discovery of optimal tool invocation patterns without human priors. Experiments on the challenging MATH Olympiad benchmark AIME demonstrate ReTool's superiority: Our 32B model achieves 67% accuracy with 400 training steps, outperforming text-based RL baseline (40% accuracy, 1080 steps) in efficiency and performance. Remarkably, ReTool-32B attains 72.5% accuracy in extended settings, surpassing OpenAI's o1-preview by 27.9%. Further analysis reveals emergent behaviors such as code self-correction, signaling an ''aha moment'' in which the model autonomously masters adaptive tool use. These findings highlight the promise of outcome-driven tool integration for advancing complex mathematical reasoning and offer new insights into hybrid neuro-symbolic systems.

While Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) demonstrate remarkable capabilities on static images, they often fall short in comprehending dynamic, information-dense short-form videos, a dominant medium in today's digital landscape. To bridge this gap, we introduce Kwai Keye-VL, an 8-billion-parameter multimodal foundation model engineered for leading-edge performance in short-video understanding while maintaining robust general-purpose vision-language abilities. The development of Keye-VL rests on two core pillars: a massive, high-quality dataset exceeding 600 billion tokens with a strong emphasis on video, and an innovative training recipe. This recipe features a four-stage pre-training process for solid vision-language alignment, followed by a meticulous two-phase post-training process. The first post-training stage enhances foundational capabilities like instruction following, while the second phase focuses on stimulating advanced reasoning. In this second phase, a key innovation is our five-mode ``cold-start'' data mixture, which includes ``thinking'', ``non-thinking'', ``auto-think'', ``think with image'', and high-quality video data. This mixture teaches the model to decide when and how to reason. Subsequent reinforcement learning (RL) and alignment steps further enhance these reasoning capabilities and correct abnormal model behaviors, such as repetitive outputs. To validate our approach, we conduct extensive evaluations, showing that Keye-VL achieves state-of-the-art results on public video benchmarks and remains highly competitive on general image-based tasks (Figure 1). Furthermore, we develop and release the KC-MMBench, a new benchmark tailored for real-world short-video scenarios, where Keye-VL shows a significant advantage.

Compressing long chain-of-thought (CoT) from large language models (LLMs) is an emerging strategy to improve the reasoning efficiency of LLMs. Despite its promising benefits, existing studies equally compress all thoughts within a long CoT, hindering more concise and effective reasoning. To this end, we first investigate the importance of different thoughts by examining their effectiveness and efficiency in contributing to reasoning through automatic long CoT chunking and Monte Carlo rollouts. Building upon the insights, we propose a theoretically bounded metric to jointly measure the effectiveness and efficiency of different thoughts. We then propose LongotimesShort, an efficient reasoning framework that enables two LLMs to collaboratively solve the problem: a long-thought LLM for more effectively generating important thoughts, while a short-thought LLM for efficiently generating remaining thoughts. Specifically, we begin by synthesizing a small amount of cold-start data to fine-tune LLMs for long-thought and short-thought reasoning styles, respectively. Furthermore, we propose a synergizing-oriented multi-turn reinforcement learning, focusing on the model self-evolution and collaboration between long-thought and short-thought LLMs. Experimental results show that our method enables Qwen2.5-7B and Llama3.1-8B to achieve comparable performance compared to DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-7B and DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Llama-8B, while reducing token length by over 80% across the MATH500, AIME24/25, AMC23, and GPQA Diamond benchmarks. Our data and code are available at https://github.com/yasNing/Long-otimes-Short/.

We introduce our first-generation reasoning models, DeepSeek-R1-Zero and DeepSeek-R1. DeepSeek-R1-Zero, a model trained via large-scale reinforcement learning (RL) without supervised fine-tuning (SFT) as a preliminary step, demonstrates remarkable reasoning capabilities. Through RL, DeepSeek-R1-Zero naturally emerges with numerous powerful and intriguing reasoning behaviors. However, it encounters challenges such as poor readability, and language mixing. To address these issues and further enhance reasoning performance, we introduce DeepSeek-R1, which incorporates multi-stage training and cold-start data before RL. DeepSeek-R1 achieves performance comparable to OpenAI-o1-1217 on reasoning tasks. To support the research community, we open-source DeepSeek-R1-Zero, DeepSeek-R1, and six dense models (1.5B, 7B, 8B, 14B, 32B, 70B) distilled from DeepSeek-R1 based on Qwen and Llama.

We introduce Magistral, Mistral's first reasoning model and our own scalable reinforcement learning (RL) pipeline. Instead of relying on existing implementations and RL traces distilled from prior models, we follow a ground up approach, relying solely on our own models and infrastructure. Notably, we demonstrate a stack that enabled us to explore the limits of pure RL training of LLMs, present a simple method to force the reasoning language of the model, and show that RL on text data alone maintains most of the initial checkpoint's capabilities. We find that RL on text maintains or improves multimodal understanding, instruction following and function calling. We present Magistral Medium, trained for reasoning on top of Mistral Medium 3 with RL alone, and we open-source Magistral Small (Apache 2.0) which further includes cold-start data from Magistral Medium.

Traditional visual grounding methods primarily focus on single-image scenarios with simple textual references. However, extending these methods to real-world scenarios that involve implicit and complex instructions, particularly in conjunction with multiple images, poses significant challenges, which is mainly due to the lack of advanced reasoning ability across diverse multi-modal contexts. In this work, we aim to address the more practical universal grounding task, and propose UniVG-R1, a reasoning guided multimodal large language model (MLLM) for universal visual grounding, which enhances reasoning capabilities through reinforcement learning (RL) combined with cold-start data. Specifically, we first construct a high-quality Chain-of-Thought (CoT) grounding dataset, annotated with detailed reasoning chains, to guide the model towards correct reasoning paths via supervised fine-tuning. Subsequently, we perform rule-based reinforcement learning to encourage the model to identify correct reasoning chains, thereby incentivizing its reasoning capabilities. In addition, we identify a difficulty bias arising from the prevalence of easy samples as RL training progresses, and we propose a difficulty-aware weight adjustment strategy to further strengthen the performance. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of UniVG-R1, which achieves state-of-the-art performance on MIG-Bench with a 9.1% improvement over the previous method. Furthermore, our model exhibits strong generalizability, achieving an average improvement of 23.4% in zero-shot performance across four image and video reasoning grounding benchmarks. The project page can be accessed at https://amap-ml.github.io/UniVG-R1-page/.

DeepSeek-R1-Zero has successfully demonstrated the emergence of reasoning capabilities in LLMs purely through Reinforcement Learning (RL). Inspired by this breakthrough, we explore how RL can be utilized to enhance the reasoning capability of MLLMs. However, direct training with RL struggles to activate complex reasoning capabilities such as questioning and reflection in MLLMs, due to the absence of substantial high-quality multimodal reasoning data. To address this issue, we propose the reasoning MLLM, Vision-R1, to improve multimodal reasoning capability. Specifically, we first construct a high-quality multimodal CoT dataset without human annotations by leveraging an existing MLLM and DeepSeek-R1 through modality bridging and data filtering to obtain a 200K multimodal CoT dataset, Vision-R1-cold dataset. It serves as cold-start initialization data for Vision-R1. To mitigate the optimization challenges caused by overthinking after cold start, we propose Progressive Thinking Suppression Training (PTST) strategy and employ Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) with the hard formatting result reward function to gradually refine the model's ability to learn correct and complex reasoning processes on a 10K multimodal math dataset. Comprehensive experiments show our model achieves an average improvement of sim6% across various multimodal math reasoning benchmarks. Vision-R1-7B achieves a 73.5% accuracy on the widely used MathVista benchmark, which is only 0.4% lower than the leading reasoning model, OpenAI O1. The datasets and code will be released in: https://github.com/Osilly/Vision-R1 .

Collaborative filtering models, particularly graph-based approaches, have demonstrated strong performance in capturing user-item interactions for recommendation systems. However, they continue to struggle in cold-start and data-sparse scenarios. The emergence of large language models (LLMs) like GPT and LLaMA presents new possibilities for enhancing recommendation performance, especially in cold-start settings. Despite their promise, LLMs pose challenges related to scalability and efficiency due to their high computational demands and limited ability to model complex user-item relationships effectively. In this work, we introduce a novel perspective on leveraging LLMs for CF model initialization. Through experiments, we uncover an embedding collapse issue when scaling CF models to larger embedding dimensions. To effectively harness large-scale LLM embeddings, we propose innovative selective initialization strategies utilizing random, uniform, and variance-based index sampling. Our comprehensive evaluation on multiple real-world datasets demonstrates significant performance gains across various CF models while maintaining a lower computational cost compared to existing LLM-based recommendation approaches.

Cold-start active learning (CSAL) selects valuable instances from an unlabeled dataset for manual annotation. It provides high-quality data at a low annotation cost for label-scarce text classification. However, existing CSAL methods overlook weak classes and hard representative examples, resulting in biased learning. To address these issues, this paper proposes a novel dual-diversity enhancing and uncertainty-aware (DEUCE) framework for CSAL. Specifically, DEUCE leverages a pretrained language model (PLM) to efficiently extract textual representations, class predictions, and predictive uncertainty. Then, it constructs a Dual-Neighbor Graph (DNG) to combine information on both textual diversity and class diversity, ensuring a balanced data distribution. It further propagates uncertainty information via density-based clustering to select hard representative instances. DEUCE performs well in selecting class-balanced and hard representative data by dual-diversity and informativeness. Experiments on six NLP datasets demonstrate the superiority and efficiency of DEUCE.

This paper proposes a cold start recommendation model that integrates contrastive learning, aiming to solve the problem of performance degradation of recommendation systems in cold start scenarios due to the scarcity of user and item interaction data. The model dynamically adjusts the weights of key features through an adaptive feature selection module and effectively integrates user attributes, item meta-information, and contextual features by combining a multimodal feature fusion mechanism, thereby improving recommendation performance. In addition, the model introduces a contrastive learning mechanism to enhance the robustness and generalization ability of feature representation by constructing positive and negative sample pairs. Experiments are conducted on the MovieLens-1M dataset. The results show that the proposed model significantly outperforms mainstream recommendation methods such as Matrix Factorization, LightGBM, DeepFM, and AutoRec in terms of HR, NDCG, MRR, and Recall, especially in cold start scenarios. Ablation experiments further verify the key role of each module in improving model performance, and the learning rate sensitivity analysis shows that a moderate learning rate is crucial to the optimization effect of the model. This study not only provides a new solution to the cold start problem but also provides an important reference for the application of contrastive learning in recommendation systems. In the future, this model is expected to play a role in a wider range of scenarios, such as real-time recommendation and cross-domain recommendation.

Exemplar-Free Class Incremental Learning (EFCIL) aims to learn from a sequence of tasks without having access to previous task data. In this paper, we consider the challenging Cold Start scenario in which insufficient data is available in the first task to learn a high-quality backbone. This is especially challenging for EFCIL since it requires high plasticity, which results in feature drift which is difficult to compensate for in the exemplar-free setting. To address this problem, we propose a simple and effective approach that consolidates feature representations by regularizing drift in directions highly relevant to previous tasks and employs prototypes to reduce task-recency bias. Our method, called Elastic Feature Consolidation (EFC), exploits a tractable second-order approximation of feature drift based on an Empirical Feature Matrix (EFM). The EFM induces a pseudo-metric in feature space which we use to regularize feature drift in important directions and to update Gaussian prototypes used in a novel asymmetric cross entropy loss which effectively balances prototype rehearsal with data from new tasks. Experimental results on CIFAR-100, Tiny-ImageNet, ImageNet-Subset and ImageNet-1K demonstrate that Elastic Feature Consolidation is better able to learn new tasks by maintaining model plasticity and significantly outperform the state-of-the-art.

Active learning promises to improve annotation efficiency by iteratively selecting the most important data to be annotated first. However, we uncover a striking contradiction to this promise: active learning fails to select data as efficiently as random selection at the first few choices. We identify this as the cold start problem in vision active learning, caused by a biased and outlier initial query. This paper seeks to address the cold start problem by exploiting the three advantages of contrastive learning: (1) no annotation is required; (2) label diversity is ensured by pseudo-labels to mitigate bias; (3) typical data is determined by contrastive features to reduce outliers. Experiments are conducted on CIFAR-10-LT and three medical imaging datasets (i.e. Colon Pathology, Abdominal CT, and Blood Cell Microscope). Our initial query not only significantly outperforms existing active querying strategies but also surpasses random selection by a large margin. We foresee our solution to the cold start problem as a simple yet strong baseline to choose the initial query for vision active learning. Code is available: https://github.com/c-liangyu/CSVAL

Traditional recommender systems leverage users' item preference history to recommend novel content that users may like. However, modern dialog interfaces that allow users to express language-based preferences offer a fundamentally different modality for preference input. Inspired by recent successes of prompting paradigms for large language models (LLMs), we study their use for making recommendations from both item-based and language-based preferences in comparison to state-of-the-art item-based collaborative filtering (CF) methods. To support this investigation, we collect a new dataset consisting of both item-based and language-based preferences elicited from users along with their ratings on a variety of (biased) recommended items and (unbiased) random items. Among numerous experimental results, we find that LLMs provide competitive recommendation performance for pure language-based preferences (no item preferences) in the near cold-start case in comparison to item-based CF methods, despite having no supervised training for this specific task (zero-shot) or only a few labels (few-shot). This is particularly promising as language-based preference representations are more explainable and scrutable than item-based or vector-based representations.

With the widespread use of mobile devices and the rapid growth of micro-video platforms such as TikTok and Kwai, the demand for personalized micro-video recommendation systems has significantly increased. Micro-videos typically contain diverse information, such as textual metadata, visual cues (e.g., cover images), and dynamic video content, significantly affecting user interaction and engagement patterns. However, most existing approaches often suffer from the problem of over-smoothing, which limits their ability to capture comprehensive interaction information effectively. Additionally, cold-start scenarios present ongoing challenges due to sparse interaction data and the underutilization of available interaction signals. To address these issues, we propose a Multi-view Hypergraph-based Contrastive learning model for cold-start micro-video Recommendation (MHCR). MHCR introduces a multi-view multimodal feature extraction layer to capture interaction signals from various perspectives and incorporates multi-view self-supervised learning tasks to provide additional supervisory signals. Through extensive experiments on two real-world datasets, we show that MHCR significantly outperforms existing video recommendation models and effectively mitigates cold-start challenges. Our code is available at https://github.com/sisuolv/MHCR.

Session-based recommender systems (SBRSs) have shown superior performance over conventional methods. However, they show limited scalability on large-scale industrial datasets since most models learn one embedding per item. This leads to a large memory requirement (of storing one vector per item) and poor performance on sparse sessions with cold-start or unpopular items. Using one public and one large industrial dataset, we experimentally show that state-of-the-art SBRSs have low performance on sparse sessions with sparse items. We propose M2TRec, a Metadata-aware Multi-task Transformer model for session-based recommendations. Our proposed method learns a transformation function from item metadata to embeddings, and is thus, item-ID free (i.e., does not need to learn one embedding per item). It integrates item metadata to learn shared representations of diverse item attributes. During inference, new or unpopular items will be assigned identical representations for the attributes they share with items previously observed during training, and thus will have similar representations with those items, enabling recommendations of even cold-start and sparse items. Additionally, M2TRec is trained in a multi-task setting to predict the next item in the session along with its primary category and subcategories. Our multi-task strategy makes the model converge faster and significantly improves the overall performance. Experimental results show significant performance gains using our proposed approach on sparse items on the two datasets.

Inspired by the remarkable reasoning capabilities of Deepseek-R1 in complex textual tasks, many works attempt to incentivize similar capabilities in Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) by directly applying reinforcement learning (RL). However, they still struggle to activate complex reasoning. In this paper, rather than examining multimodal RL in isolation, we delve into current training pipelines and identify three crucial phenomena: 1) Effective cold start initialization is critical for enhancing MLLM reasoning. Intriguingly, we find that initializing with carefully selected text data alone can lead to performance surpassing many recent multimodal reasoning models, even before multimodal RL. 2) Standard GRPO applied to multimodal RL suffers from gradient stagnation, which degrades training stability and performance. 3) Subsequent text-only RL training, following the multimodal RL phase, further enhances multimodal reasoning. This staged training approach effectively balances perceptual grounding and cognitive reasoning development. By incorporating the above insights and addressing multimodal RL issues, we introduce ReVisual-R1, achieving a new state-of-the-art among open-source 7B MLLMs on challenging benchmarks including MathVerse, MathVision, WeMath, LogicVista, DynaMath, and challenging AIME2024 and AIME2025.

The burgeoning presence of multimodal content-sharing platforms propels the development of personalized recommender systems. Previous works usually suffer from data sparsity and cold-start problems, and may fail to adequately explore semantic user-product associations from multimodal data. To address these issues, we propose a novel Multi-Modal Hypergraph Contrastive Learning (MMHCL) framework for user recommendation. For a comprehensive information exploration from user-product relations, we construct two hypergraphs, i.e. a user-to-user (u2u) hypergraph and an item-to-item (i2i) hypergraph, to mine shared preferences among users and intricate multimodal semantic resemblance among items, respectively. This process yields denser second-order semantics that are fused with first-order user-item interaction as complementary to alleviate the data sparsity issue. Then, we design a contrastive feature enhancement paradigm by applying synergistic contrastive learning. By maximizing/minimizing the mutual information between second-order (e.g. shared preference pattern for users) and first-order (information of selected items for users) embeddings of the same/different users and items, the feature distinguishability can be effectively enhanced. Compared with using sparse primary user-item interaction only, our MMHCL obtains denser second-order hypergraphs and excavates more abundant shared attributes to explore the user-product associations, which to a certain extent alleviates the problems of data sparsity and cold-start. Extensive experiments have comprehensively demonstrated the effectiveness of our method. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/Xu107/MMHCL.

Inspired by DeepSeek-R1's success in eliciting reasoning abilities through rule-based reinforcement learning (RL), we introduce Video-R1 as the first attempt to systematically explore the R1 paradigm for eliciting video reasoning within multimodal large language models (MLLMs). However, directly applying RL training with the GRPO algorithm to video reasoning presents two primary challenges: (i) a lack of temporal modeling for video reasoning, and (ii) the scarcity of high-quality video-reasoning data. To address these issues, we first propose the T-GRPO algorithm, which encourages models to utilize temporal information in videos for reasoning. Additionally, instead of relying solely on video data, we incorporate high-quality image-reasoning data into the training process. We have constructed two datasets: Video-R1-COT-165k for SFT cold start and Video-R1-260k for RL training, both comprising image and video data. Experimental results demonstrate that Video-R1 achieves significant improvements on video reasoning benchmarks such as VideoMMMU and VSI-Bench, as well as on general video benchmarks including MVBench and TempCompass, etc. Notably, Video-R1-7B attains a 35.8% accuracy on video spatial reasoning benchmark VSI-bench, surpassing the commercial proprietary model GPT-4o. All codes, models, data are released.

Conversational recommendation systems (CRS) aim to recommend suitable items to users through natural language conversation. However, most CRS approaches do not effectively utilize the signal provided by these conversations. They rely heavily on explicit external knowledge e.g., knowledge graphs to augment the models' understanding of the items and attributes, which is quite hard to scale. To alleviate this, we propose an alternative information retrieval (IR)-styled approach to the CRS item recommendation task, where we represent conversations as queries and items as documents to be retrieved. We expand the document representation used for retrieval with conversations from the training set. With a simple BM25-based retriever, we show that our task formulation compares favorably with much more complex baselines using complex external knowledge on a popular CRS benchmark. We demonstrate further improvements using user-centric modeling and data augmentation to counter the cold start problem for CRSs.

Traditional POI recommendation systems often lack transparency, interpretability, and scrutability due to their reliance on dense vector-based user embeddings. Furthermore, the cold-start problem -- where systems have insufficient data for new users -- limits their ability to generate accurate recommendations. Existing methods often address this by leveraging similar trajectories from other users, but this approach can be computationally expensive and increases the context length for LLM-based methods, making them difficult to scale. To address these limitations, we propose a method that generates natural language (NL) user profiles from large-scale, location-based social network (LBSN) check-ins, utilizing robust personality assessments and behavioral theories. These NL profiles capture user preferences, routines, and behaviors, improving POI prediction accuracy while offering enhanced transparency. By incorporating NL profiles as system prompts to LLMs, our approach reduces reliance on extensive historical data, while remaining flexible, easily updated, and computationally efficient. Our method is not only competitive with other LLM-based and complex agentic frameworks but is also more scalable for real-world scenarios and on-device POI recommendations. Results demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms baseline methods, offering a more interpretable and resource-efficient solution for POI recommendation systems. Our source code is available at: https://github.com/w11wo/GenUP.

There has been growing interest in using neural networks and deep learning techniques to create dialogue systems. Conversational recommendation is an interesting setting for the scientific exploration of dialogue with natural language as the associated discourse involves goal-driven dialogue that often transforms naturally into more free-form chat. This paper provides two contributions. First, until now there has been no publicly available large-scale dataset consisting of real-world dialogues centered around recommendations. To address this issue and to facilitate our exploration here, we have collected ReDial, a dataset consisting of over 10,000 conversations centered around the theme of providing movie recommendations. We make this data available to the community for further research. Second, we use this dataset to explore multiple facets of conversational recommendations. In particular we explore new neural architectures, mechanisms, and methods suitable for composing conversational recommendation systems. Our dataset allows us to systematically probe model sub-components addressing different parts of the overall problem domain ranging from: sentiment analysis and cold-start recommendation generation to detailed aspects of how natural language is used in this setting in the real world. We combine such sub-components into a full-blown dialogue system and examine its behavior.

Recent advancements in Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), particularly through Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR), have significantly enhanced their reasoning abilities. However, a critical gap persists: these models struggle with dynamic spatial interactions, a capability essential for real-world applications. To bridge this gap, we introduce M2-Reasoning-7B, a model designed to excel in both general and spatial reasoning. Our approach integrates two key innovations: (1) a novel data pipeline that generates 294.2K high-quality data samples (168K for cold-start fine-tuning and 126.2K for RLVR), which feature logically coherent reasoning trajectories and have undergone comprehensive assessment; and (2) a dynamic multi-task training strategy with step-wise optimization to mitigate conflicts between data, and task-specific rewards for delivering tailored incentive signals. This combination of curated data and advanced training allows M2-Reasoning-7B to set a new state-of-the-art (SOTA) across 8 benchmarks, showcasing superior performance in both general and spatial reasoning domains.

Post-training of Large Language Models often involves a pipeline of Supervised Finetuning (SFT) followed by Preference Finetuning (PFT) using methods like Direct Preference Optimization. Both stages require annotated data that are very different in structure and costs. We study how to optimally allocate a fixed training data budget between the two stages, through extensive experiments spanning four diverse tasks, multiple model sizes and various data annotation costs. Our findings reveal that just SFT on the base model dominates performance in low-data regimes (<1,000 annotated examples). With larger data-budgets, we observe that a combination of SFT and PFT, often with increasing portions allocated towards preference data yields optimal performance. However, completely eliminating SFT and running PFT directly on the base model yields suboptimal performance, described as the cold start problem on tasks like mathematics. We observe that this is due to the distribution shift arising from using DPO directly on the base model to elicit step-by-step reasoning. This limitation can be effectively addressed by allocating even a small portion (<10%) of the budget to SFT first, resulting in performance improvements of 15-20% on analytical benchmarks like GSM8k. These results provide actionable insights for researchers and practitioners optimizing model development under budget constraints, where high-quality data curation often represents a significant portion of the total costs of model development.

Sequential recommendation aims to model dynamic user behavior from historical interactions. Existing methods rely on either explicit item IDs or general textual features for sequence modeling to understand user preferences. While promising, these approaches still struggle to model cold-start items or transfer knowledge to new datasets. In this paper, we propose to model user preferences and item features as language representations that can be generalized to new items and datasets. To this end, we present a novel framework, named Recformer, which effectively learns language representations for sequential recommendation. Specifically, we propose to formulate an item as a "sentence" (word sequence) by flattening item key-value attributes described by text so that an item sequence for a user becomes a sequence of sentences. For recommendation, Recformer is trained to understand the "sentence" sequence and retrieve the next "sentence". To encode item sequences, we design a bi-directional Transformer similar to the model Longformer but with different embedding layers for sequential recommendation. For effective representation learning, we propose novel pretraining and finetuning methods which combine language understanding and recommendation tasks. Therefore, Recformer can effectively recommend the next item based on language representations. Extensive experiments conducted on six datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of Recformer for sequential recommendation, especially in low-resource and cold-start settings.

Recommendation systems play a critical role in enhancing user experience and engagement in various online platforms. Traditional methods, such as Collaborative Filtering (CF) and Content-Based Filtering (CBF), rely heavily on past user interactions or item features. However, these models often fail to capture the dynamic and evolving nature of user preferences. To address these limitations, we propose DUIP (Dynamic User Intent Prediction), a novel framework that combines LSTM networks with Large Language Models (LLMs) to dynamically capture user intent and generate personalized item recommendations. The LSTM component models the sequential and temporal dependencies of user behavior, while the LLM utilizes the LSTM-generated prompts to predict the next item of interest. Experimental results on three diverse datasets ML-1M, Games, and Bundle show that DUIP outperforms a wide range of baseline models, demonstrating its ability to handle the cold-start problem and real-time intent adaptation. The integration of dynamic prompts based on recent user interactions allows DUIP to provide more accurate, context-aware, and personalized recommendations. Our findings suggest that DUIP is a promising approach for next-generation recommendation systems, with potential for further improvements in cross-modal recommendations and scalability.

Addressing intricate real-world problems necessitates in-depth information seeking and multi-step reasoning. Recent progress in agentic systems, exemplified by Deep Research, underscores the potential for autonomous multi-step research. In this work, we present a cohesive paradigm for building end-to-end agentic information seeking agents from a data-centric and training-stage perspective. Our approach consists of four key stages: (1) browsing data construction, (2) trajectories sampling, (3) supervised fine-tuning for effective cold start, and (4) reinforcement learning for enhanced generalisation. We instantiate this framework in a web agent based on the ReAct, WebDancer. Empirical evaluations on the challenging information seeking benchmarks, GAIA and WebWalkerQA, demonstrate the strong performance of WebDancer, achieving considerable results and highlighting the efficacy of our training paradigm. Further analysis of agent training provides valuable insights and actionable, systematic pathways for developing more capable agentic models. The codes and demo will be released in https://github.com/Alibaba-NLP/WebAgent.

Product recommendation systems are important for major movie studios during the movie greenlight process and as part of machine learning personalization pipelines. Collaborative Filtering (CF) models have proved to be effective at powering recommender systems for online streaming services with explicit customer feedback data. CF models do not perform well in scenarios in which feedback data is not available, in cold start situations like new product launches, and situations with markedly different customer tiers (e.g., high frequency customers vs. casual customers). Generative natural language models that create useful theme-based representations of an underlying corpus of documents can be used to represent new product descriptions, like new movie plots. When combined with CF, they have shown to increase the performance in cold start situations. Outside of those cases though in which explicit customer feedback is available, recommender engines must rely on binary purchase data, which materially degrades performance. Fortunately, purchase data can be combined with product descriptions to generate meaningful representations of products and customer trajectories in a convenient product space in which proximity represents similarity. Learning to measure the distance between points in this space can be accomplished with a deep neural network that trains on customer histories and on dense vectorizations of product descriptions. We developed a system based on Collaborative (Deep) Metric Learning (CML) to predict the purchase probabilities of new theatrical releases. We trained and evaluated the model using a large dataset of customer histories, and tested the model for a set of movies that were released outside of the training window. Initial experiments show gains relative to models that do not train on collaborative preferences.

As textual reasoning with large language models (LLMs) has advanced significantly, there has been growing interest in enhancing the multimodal reasoning capabilities of large vision-language models (LVLMs). However, existing methods primarily approach multimodal reasoning in a straightforward, text-centric manner, where both reasoning and answer derivation are conducted purely through text, with the only difference being the presence of multimodal input. As a result, these methods often encounter fundamental limitations in spatial reasoning tasks that demand precise geometric understanding and continuous spatial tracking-capabilities that humans achieve through mental visualization and manipulation. To address the limitations, we propose drawing to reason in space, a novel paradigm that enables LVLMs to reason through elementary drawing operations in the visual space. By equipping models with basic drawing operations, including annotating bounding boxes and drawing auxiliary lines, we empower them to express and analyze spatial relationships through direct visual manipulation, meanwhile avoiding the performance ceiling imposed by specialized perception tools in previous tool-integrated reasoning approaches. To cultivate this capability, we develop a three-stage training framework: cold-start training with synthetic data to establish basic drawing abilities, reflective rejection sampling to enhance self-reflection behaviors, and reinforcement learning to directly optimize for target rewards. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our model, named VILASR, consistently outperforms existing methods across diverse spatial reasoning benchmarks, involving maze navigation, static spatial reasoning, video-based reasoning, and multi-view-based reasoning tasks, with an average improvement of 18.4%.

As large language models (LLMs) grow in power and influence, ensuring their safety and preventing harmful output becomes critical. Automated red teaming serves as a tool to detect security vulnerabilities in LLMs without manual labor. However, most existing methods struggle to balance the effectiveness and diversity of red-team generated attack prompts. To address this challenge, we propose \ourapproach, a novel automated red teaming training framework that utilizes reinforcement learning to explore and generate more effective attack prompts while balancing their diversity. Specifically, it consists of three training stages: (1) Cold Start: The red team model is supervised and fine-tuned on a jailbreak dataset obtained through imitation learning. (2) Warm-up Exploration: The model is trained in jailbreak instruction following and exploration, using diversity and consistency as reward signals. (3) Enhanced Jailbreak: Progressive jailbreak rewards are introduced to gradually enhance the jailbreak performance of the red-team model. Extensive experiments on a variety of LLMs show that \ourapproach effectively balances the diversity and effectiveness of jailbreak prompts compared to existing methods. Our work significantly improves the efficiency of red team exploration and provides a new perspective on automated red teaming.

Sequential recommendation (SR) aims to model the sequential dependencies in users' historical interactions to better capture their evolving interests. However, existing SR approaches primarily rely on collaborative data, which leads to limitations such as the cold-start problem and sub-optimal performance. Meanwhile, despite the success of large language models (LLMs), their application in industrial recommender systems is hindered by high inference latency, inability to capture all distribution statistics, and catastrophic forgetting. To this end, we propose a novel Pre-train, Align, and Disentangle (PAD) paradigm to empower recommendation models with LLMs. Specifically, we first pre-train both the SR and LLM models to get collaborative and textual embeddings. Next, a characteristic recommendation-anchored alignment loss is proposed using multi-kernel maximum mean discrepancy with Gaussian kernels. Finally, a triple-experts architecture, consisting aligned and modality-specific experts with disentangled embeddings, is fine-tuned in a frequency-aware manner. Experiments conducted on three public datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of PAD, showing significant improvements and compatibility with various SR backbone models, especially on cold items. The implementation code and datasets will be publicly available.

In recent years, Recommender Systems(RS) have witnessed a transformative shift with the advent of Large Language Models(LLMs) in the field of Natural Language Processing(NLP). These models such as OpenAI's GPT-3.5/4, Llama from Meta, have demonstrated unprecedented capabilities in understanding and generating human-like text. This has led to a paradigm shift in the realm of personalized and explainable recommendations, as LLMs offer a versatile toolset for processing vast amounts of textual data to enhance user experiences. To provide a comprehensive understanding of the existing LLM-based recommendation systems, this survey aims to analyze how RS can benefit from LLM-based methodologies. Furthermore, we describe major challenges in Personalized Explanation Generating(PEG) tasks, which are cold-start problems, unfairness and bias problems in RS.

Methods for making high-quality recommendations often rely on learning latent representations from interaction data. These methods, while performant, do not provide ready mechanisms for users to control the recommendation they receive. Our work tackles this problem by proposing LACE, a novel concept value bottleneck model for controllable text recommendations. LACE represents each user with a succinct set of human-readable concepts through retrieval given user-interacted documents and learns personalized representations of the concepts based on user documents. This concept based user profile is then leveraged to make recommendations. The design of our model affords control over the recommendations through a number of intuitive interactions with a transparent user profile. We first establish the quality of recommendations obtained from LACE in an offline evaluation on three recommendation tasks spanning six datasets in warm-start, cold-start, and zero-shot setups. Next, we validate the controllability of LACE under simulated user interactions. Finally, we implement LACE in an interactive controllable recommender system and conduct a user study to demonstrate that users are able to improve the quality of recommendations they receive through interactions with an editable user profile.

Privacy-preserving methods for personalizing large language models (LLMs) are relatively under-explored. There are two schools of thought on this topic: (1) generating personalized outputs by personalizing the input prompt through retrieval augmentation from the user's personal information (RAG-based methods), and (2) parameter-efficient fine-tuning of LLMs per user that considers efficiency and space limitations (PEFT-based methods). This paper presents the first systematic comparison between two approaches on a wide range of personalization tasks using seven diverse datasets. Our results indicate that RAG-based and PEFT-based personalization methods on average yield 14.92% and 1.07% improvements over the non-personalized LLM, respectively. We find that combining RAG with PEFT elevates these improvements to 15.98%. Additionally, we identify a positive correlation between the amount of user data and PEFT's effectiveness, indicating that RAG is a better choice for cold-start users (i.e., user's with limited personal data).

Recent advances in multimodal Reward Models (RMs) have shown significant promise in delivering reward signals to align vision models with human preferences. However, current RMs are generally restricted to providing direct responses or engaging in shallow reasoning processes with limited depth, often leading to inaccurate reward signals. We posit that incorporating explicit long chains of thought (CoT) into the reward reasoning process can significantly strengthen their reliability and robustness. Furthermore, we believe that once RMs internalize CoT reasoning, their direct response accuracy can also be improved through implicit reasoning capabilities. To this end, this paper proposes UnifiedReward-Think, the first unified multimodal CoT-based reward model, capable of multi-dimensional, step-by-step long-chain reasoning for both visual understanding and generation reward tasks. Specifically, we adopt an exploration-driven reinforcement fine-tuning approach to elicit and incentivize the model's latent complex reasoning ability: (1) We first use a small amount of image generation preference data to distill the reasoning process of GPT-4o, which is then used for the model's cold start to learn the format and structure of CoT reasoning. (2) Subsequently, by leveraging the model's prior knowledge and generalization capabilities, we prepare large-scale unified multimodal preference data to elicit the model's reasoning process across various vision tasks. During this phase, correct reasoning outputs are retained for rejection sampling to refine the model (3) while incorrect predicted samples are finally used for Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) based reinforcement fine-tuning, enabling the model to explore diverse reasoning paths and optimize for correct and robust solutions. Extensive experiments across various vision reward tasks demonstrate the superiority of our model.

Rapidly growing numbers of multilingual news consumers pose an increasing challenge to news recommender systems in terms of providing customized recommendations. First, existing neural news recommenders, even when powered by multilingual language models (LMs), suffer substantial performance losses in zero-shot cross-lingual transfer (ZS-XLT). Second, the current paradigm of fine-tuning the backbone LM of a neural recommender on task-specific data is computationally expensive and infeasible in few-shot recommendation and cold-start setups, where data is scarce or completely unavailable. In this work, we propose a news-adapted sentence encoder (NaSE), domain-specialized from a pretrained massively multilingual sentence encoder (SE). To this end, we construct and leverage PolyNews and PolyNewsParallel, two multilingual news-specific corpora. With the news-adapted multilingual SE in place, we test the effectiveness of (i.e., question the need for) supervised fine-tuning for news recommendation, and propose a simple and strong baseline based on (i) frozen NaSE embeddings and (ii) late click-behavior fusion. We show that NaSE achieves state-of-the-art performance in ZS-XLT in true cold-start and few-shot news recommendation.

As large language models (LLMs) evolve, their ability to deliver personalized and context-aware responses offers transformative potential for improving user experiences. Existing personalization approaches, however, often rely solely on user history to augment the prompt, limiting their effectiveness in generating tailored outputs, especially in cold-start scenarios with sparse data. To address these limitations, we propose Personalized Graph-based Retrieval-Augmented Generation (PGraphRAG), a framework that leverages user-centric knowledge graphs to enrich personalization. By directly integrating structured user knowledge into the retrieval process and augmenting prompts with user-relevant context, PGraphRAG enhances contextual understanding and output quality. We also introduce the Personalized Graph-based Benchmark for Text Generation, designed to evaluate personalized text generation tasks in real-world settings where user history is sparse or unavailable. Experimental results show that PGraphRAG significantly outperforms state-of-the-art personalization methods across diverse tasks, demonstrating the unique advantages of graph-based retrieval for personalization.

This paper releases and analyzes a month-long trace of 85 billion user requests and 11.9 million cold starts from Huawei's serverless cloud platform. Our analysis spans workloads from five data centers. We focus on cold starts and provide a comprehensive examination of the underlying factors influencing the number and duration of cold starts. These factors include trigger types, request synchronicity, runtime languages, and function resource allocations. We investigate components of cold starts, including pod allocation time, code and dependency deployment time, and scheduling delays, and examine their relationships with runtime languages, trigger types, and resource allocation. We introduce pod utility ratio to measure the pod's useful lifetime relative to its cold start time, giving a more complete picture of cold starts, and see that some pods with long cold start times have longer useful lifetimes. Our findings reveal the complexity and multifaceted origins of the number, duration, and characteristics of cold starts, driven by differences in trigger types, runtime languages, and function resource allocations. For example, cold starts in Region 1 take up to 7 seconds, dominated by dependency deployment time and scheduling. In Region 2, cold starts take up to 3 seconds and are dominated by pod allocation time. Based on this, we identify opportunities to reduce the number and duration of cold starts using strategies for multi-region scheduling. Finally, we suggest directions for future research to address these challenges and enhance the performance of serverless cloud platforms. Our datasets and code are available here https://github.com/sir-lab/data-release

Time series has been left behind in the era of pre-training and transfer learning. While research in the fields of natural language processing and computer vision are enjoying progressively larger datasets to train massive models, the most popular time series datasets consist of only tens of thousands of time steps, limiting our ability to study the effectiveness of pre-training and scaling. Recent studies have also cast doubt on the need for expressive models and scale. To alleviate these issues, we introduce three large-scale time series forecasting datasets from the cloud operations (CloudOps) domain, the largest having billions of observations, enabling further study into pre-training and scaling of time series models. We build the empirical groundwork for studying pre-training and scaling of time series models and pave the way for future research by identifying a promising candidate architecture. We show that it is a strong zero-shot baseline and benefits from further scaling, both in model and dataset size. Accompanying these datasets and results is a suite of comprehensive benchmark results comparing classical and deep learning baselines to our pre-trained method - achieving a 27% reduction in error on the largest dataset. Code and datasets will be released.

The modern paradigm in machine learning involves pre-training on diverse data, followed by task-specific fine-tuning. In reinforcement learning (RL), this translates to learning via offline RL on a diverse historical dataset, followed by rapid online RL fine-tuning using interaction data. Most RL fine-tuning methods require continued training on offline data for stability and performance. However, this is undesirable because training on diverse offline data is slow and expensive for large datasets, and in principle, also limit the performance improvement possible because of constraints or pessimism on offline data. In this paper, we show that retaining offline data is unnecessary as long as we use a properly-designed online RL approach for fine-tuning offline RL initializations. To build this approach, we start by analyzing the role of retaining offline data in online fine-tuning. We find that continued training on offline data is mostly useful for preventing a sudden divergence in the value function at the onset of fine-tuning, caused by a distribution mismatch between the offline data and online rollouts. This divergence typically results in unlearning and forgetting the benefits of offline pre-training. Our approach, Warm-start RL (WSRL), mitigates the catastrophic forgetting of pre-trained initializations using a very simple idea. WSRL employs a warmup phase that seeds the online RL run with a very small number of rollouts from the pre-trained policy to do fast online RL. The data collected during warmup helps ``recalibrate'' the offline Q-function to the online distribution, allowing us to completely discard offline data without destabilizing the online RL fine-tuning. We show that WSRL is able to fine-tune without retaining any offline data, and is able to learn faster and attains higher performance than existing algorithms irrespective of whether they retain offline data or not.

A major factor in the recent success of large language models is the use of enormous and ever-growing text datasets for unsupervised pre-training. However, naively training a model on all available data may not be optimal (or feasible), as the quality of available text data can vary. Filtering out data can also decrease the carbon footprint and financial costs of training models by reducing the amount of training required. Data selection methods aim to determine which candidate data points to include in the training dataset and how to appropriately sample from the selected data points. The promise of improved data selection methods has caused the volume of research in the area to rapidly expand. However, because deep learning is mostly driven by empirical evidence and experimentation on large-scale data is expensive, few organizations have the resources for extensive data selection research. Consequently, knowledge of effective data selection practices has become concentrated within a few organizations, many of which do not openly share their findings and methodologies. To narrow this gap in knowledge, we present a comprehensive review of existing literature on data selection methods and related research areas, providing a taxonomy of existing approaches. By describing the current landscape of research, this work aims to accelerate progress in data selection by establishing an entry point for new and established researchers. Additionally, throughout this review we draw attention to noticeable holes in the literature and conclude the paper by proposing promising avenues for future research.

Pretraining has been shown to scale well with compute, data size and data diversity. Multitask learning trains on a mixture of supervised datasets and produces improved performance compared to self-supervised pretraining. Until now, massively multitask learning required simultaneous access to all datasets in the mixture and heavy compute resources that are only available to well-resourced teams. In this paper, we propose ColD Fusion, a method that provides the benefits of multitask learning but leverages distributed computation and requires limited communication and no sharing of data. Consequentially, ColD Fusion can create a synergistic loop, where finetuned models can be recycled to continually improve the pretrained model they are based on. We show that ColD Fusion yields comparable benefits to multitask pretraining by producing a model that (a) attains strong performance on all of the datasets it was multitask trained on and (b) is a better starting point for finetuning on unseen datasets. We find ColD Fusion outperforms RoBERTa and even previous multitask models. Specifically, when training and testing on 35 diverse datasets, ColD Fusion-based model outperforms RoBERTa by 2.45 points in average without any changes to the architecture.

Natural Language to SQL (NL2SQL) enables intuitive interactions with databases by transforming natural language queries into structured SQL statements. Despite recent advancements in enhancing human-computer interaction within database applications, significant challenges persist, particularly regarding the inference performance in complex scenarios involving multi-table joins and nested queries. Current methodologies primarily utilize supervised fine-tuning (SFT) to train the NL2SQL model, which may limit adaptability and interpretability in new environments (e.g., finance and healthcare). In order to enhance the reasoning performance of the NL2SQL model in the above complex situations, we introduce SQL-R1, a novel NL2SQL reasoning model trained by the reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms. We design a specialized RL-based reward function tailored for NL2SQL tasks and discussed the impact of cold start on the effectiveness of intensive training. In addition, we achieve competitive accuracy using only a tiny amount of synthetic NL2SQL data for augmented training and further explore data engineering for RL. In existing experiments, SQL-R1 achieves execution accuracy of 88.6% and 66.6% on the benchmark Spider and BIRD, respectively, only using the 7B base model.

Heat pumps are essential for decarbonizing residential heating but consume substantial electrical energy, impacting operational costs and grid demand. Many systems run inefficiently due to planning flaws, operational faults, or misconfigurations. While optimizing performance requires skilled professionals, labor shortages hinder large-scale interventions. However, digital tools and improved data availability create new service opportunities for energy efficiency, predictive maintenance, and demand-side management. To support research and practical solutions, we present an open-source dataset of electricity consumption from 1,408 households with heat pumps and smart electricity meters in the canton of Zurich, Switzerland, recorded at 15-minute and daily resolutions between 2018-11-03 and 2024-03-21. The dataset includes household metadata, weather data from 8 stations, and ground truth data from 410 field visit protocols collected by energy consultants during system optimizations. Additionally, the dataset includes a Python-based data loader to facilitate seamless data processing and exploration.

Public and private actors struggle to assess the vast amounts of information about sustainability commitments made by various institutions. To address this problem, we create a novel tool for automatically detecting corporate, national, and regional net zero and reduction targets in three steps. First, we introduce an expert-annotated data set with 3.5K text samples. Second, we train and release ClimateBERT-NetZero, a natural language classifier to detect whether a text contains a net zero or reduction target. Third, we showcase its analysis potential with two use cases: We first demonstrate how ClimateBERT-NetZero can be combined with conventional question-answering (Q&A) models to analyze the ambitions displayed in net zero and reduction targets. Furthermore, we employ the ClimateBERT-NetZero model on quarterly earning call transcripts and outline how communication patterns evolve over time. Our experiments demonstrate promising pathways for extracting and analyzing net zero and emission reduction targets at scale.

Machine learning systems deployed in the wild are often trained on a source distribution but deployed on a different target distribution. Unlabeled data can be a powerful point of leverage for mitigating these distribution shifts, as it is frequently much more available than labeled data and can often be obtained from distributions beyond the source distribution as well. However, existing distribution shift benchmarks with unlabeled data do not reflect the breadth of scenarios that arise in real-world applications. In this work, we present the WILDS 2.0 update, which extends 8 of the 10 datasets in the WILDS benchmark of distribution shifts to include curated unlabeled data that would be realistically obtainable in deployment. These datasets span a wide range of applications (from histology to wildlife conservation), tasks (classification, regression, and detection), and modalities (photos, satellite images, microscope slides, text, molecular graphs). The update maintains consistency with the original WILDS benchmark by using identical labeled training, validation, and test sets, as well as the evaluation metrics. On these datasets, we systematically benchmark state-of-the-art methods that leverage unlabeled data, including domain-invariant, self-training, and self-supervised methods, and show that their success on WILDS is limited. To facilitate method development and evaluation, we provide an open-source package that automates data loading and contains all of the model architectures and methods used in this paper. Code and leaderboards are available at https://wilds.stanford.edu.

We present a faster algorithm to generate a warm start for sampling an arbitrary logconcave density specified by an evaluation oracle, leading to the first sub-cubic sampling algorithms for inputs in (near-)isotropic position. A long line of prior work incurred a warm-start penalty of at least linear in the dimension, hitting a cubic barrier, even for the special case of uniform sampling from convex bodies. Our improvement relies on two key ingredients of independent interest. (1) We show how to sample given a warm start in weaker notions of distance, in particular q-R\'enyi divergence for q=mathcal{O}(1), whereas previous analyses required stringent infty-R\'enyi divergence (with the exception of Hit-and-Run, whose known mixing time is higher). This marks the first improvement in the required warmness since Lov\'asz and Simonovits (1991). (2) We refine and generalize the log-Sobolev inequality of Lee and Vempala (2018), originally established for isotropic logconcave distributions in terms of the diameter of the support, to logconcave distributions in terms of a geometric average of the support diameter and the largest eigenvalue of the covariance matrix.

We present 360Zhinao models with 7B parameter size and context lengths spanning 4K, 32K and 360K, all available at https://github.com/Qihoo360/360zhinao. For rapid development in pretraining, we establish a stable and sensitive ablation environment to evaluate and compare experiment runs with minimal model size. Under such guidance, we perfect our data cleaning and composition strategies to pretrain 360Zhinao-7B-Base on 3.4T tokens. We also mainly emphasize data during alignment, where we strive to balance quantity and quality with filtering and reformatting. With tailored data, 360Zhinao-7B's context window is easily extended to 32K and 360K. RMs and RLHF are trained following SFT and credibly applied to specific tasks. All together these contributions lead to 360Zhinao-7B's competitive performance among models of similar size.

Accurate demand estimation is critical for the retail business in guiding the inventory and pricing policies of perishable products. However, it faces fundamental challenges from censored sales data during stockouts, where unobserved demand creates systemic policy biases. Existing datasets lack the temporal resolution and annotations needed to address this censoring effect. To fill this gap, we present FreshRetailNet-50K, the first large-scale benchmark for censored demand estimation. It comprises 50,000 store-product time series of detailed hourly sales data from 898 stores in 18 major cities, encompassing 863 perishable SKUs meticulously annotated for stockout events. The hourly stock status records unique to this dataset, combined with rich contextual covariates, including promotional discounts, precipitation, and temporal features, enable innovative research beyond existing solutions. We demonstrate one such use case of two-stage demand modeling: first, we reconstruct the latent demand during stockouts using precise hourly annotations. We then leverage the recovered demand to train robust demand forecasting models in the second stage. Experimental results show that this approach achieves a 2.73\% improvement in prediction accuracy while reducing the systematic demand underestimation from 7.37\% to near-zero bias. With unprecedented temporal granularity and comprehensive real-world information, FreshRetailNet-50K opens new research directions in demand imputation, perishable inventory optimization, and causal retail analytics. The unique annotation quality and scale of the dataset address long-standing limitations in retail AI, providing immediate solutions and a platform for future methodological innovation. The data (https://huggingface.co/datasets/Dingdong-Inc/FreshRetailNet-50K) and code (https://github.com/Dingdong-Inc/frn-50k-baseline}) are openly released.

We present the data release and data reduction process for the Epoch 1 NIRCam observations for the Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science Survey (CEERS). These data consist of NIRCam imaging in six broadband filters (F115W, F150W, F200W, F277W, F356W and F444W) and one medium band filter (F410M) over four pointings, obtained in parallel with primary CEERS MIRI observations (Yang et al. in prep). We reduced the NIRCam imaging with the JWST Calibration Pipeline, with custom modifications and reduction steps designed to address additional features and challenges with the data. Here we provide a detailed description of each step in our reduction and a discussion of future expected improvements. Our reduction process includes corrections for known pre-launch issues such as 1/f noise, as well as in-flight issues including snowballs, wisps, and astrometric alignment. Many of our custom reduction processes were first developed with pre-launch simulated NIRCam imaging over the full 10 CEERS NIRCam pointings. We present a description of the creation and reduction of this simulated dataset in the Appendix. We provide mosaics of the real images in a public release, as well as our reduction scripts with detailed explanations to allow users to reproduce our final data products. These represent one of the first official public datasets released from the Directors Discretionary Early Release Science (DD-ERS) program.

Large language models (LLMs) are routinely pre-trained on billions of tokens, only to restart the process over again once new data becomes available. A much cheaper and more efficient solution would be to enable the continual pre-training of these models, i.e. updating pre-trained models with new data instead of re-training them from scratch. However, the distribution shift induced by novel data typically results in degraded performance on past data. Taking a step towards efficient continual pre-training, in this work, we examine the effect of different warm-up strategies. Our hypothesis is that the learning rate must be re-increased to improve compute efficiency when training on a new dataset. We study the warmup phase of models pre-trained on the Pile (upstream data, 300B tokens) as we continue to pre-train on SlimPajama (downstream data, 297B tokens), following a linear warmup and cosine decay schedule. We conduct all experiments on the Pythia 410M language model architecture and evaluate performance through validation perplexity. We experiment with different pre-training checkpoints, various maximum learning rates, and various warmup lengths. Our results show that while rewarming models first increases the loss on upstream and downstream data, in the longer run it improves the downstream performance, outperforming models trained from scratchx2013even for a large downstream dataset.

Collaborative filtering recommender systems (CF-RecSys) have shown successive results in enhancing the user experience on social media and e-commerce platforms. However, as CF-RecSys struggles under cold scenarios with sparse user-item interactions, recent strategies have focused on leveraging modality information of user/items (e.g., text or images) based on pre-trained modality encoders and Large Language Models (LLMs). Despite their effectiveness under cold scenarios, we observe that they underperform simple traditional collaborative filtering models under warm scenarios due to the lack of collaborative knowledge. In this work, we propose an efficient All-round LLM-based Recommender system, called A-LLMRec, that excels not only in the cold scenario but also in the warm scenario. Our main idea is to enable an LLM to directly leverage the collaborative knowledge contained in a pre-trained state-of-the-art CF-RecSys so that the emergent ability of the LLM as well as the high-quality user/item embeddings that are already trained by the state-of-the-art CF-RecSys can be jointly exploited. This approach yields two advantages: (1) model-agnostic, allowing for integration with various existing CF-RecSys, and (2) efficiency, eliminating the extensive fine-tuning typically required for LLM-based recommenders. Our extensive experiments on various real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of A-LLMRec in various scenarios, including cold/warm, few-shot, cold user, and cross-domain scenarios. Beyond the recommendation task, we also show the potential of A-LLMRec in generating natural language outputs based on the understanding of the collaborative knowledge by performing a favorite genre prediction task. Our code is available at https://github.com/ghdtjr/A-LLMRec .

The weather forecasting system is important for science and society, and significant achievements have been made in applying artificial intelligence (AI) to medium-range weather forecasting. However, existing AI-based weather forecasting models rely on analysis or reanalysis products from traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems as initial conditions for making predictions. Initial states are typically generated by traditional data assimilation components, which are computational expensive and time-consuming. Here we present an AI-based data assimilation model, i.e., Adas, for global weather variables. By introducing the confidence matrix, Adas employs gated convolution to handle sparse observations and gated cross-attention for capturing the interactions between the background and observations. Further, we combine Adas with the advanced AI-based forecasting model (i.e., FengWu) to construct the first end-to-end AI-based global weather forecasting system: FengWu-Adas. We demonstrate that Adas can assimilate global observations to produce high-quality analysis, enabling the system operate stably for long term. Moreover, we are the first to apply the methods to real-world scenarios, which is more challenging and has considerable practical application potential. We have also achieved the forecasts based on the analyses generated by AI with a skillful forecast lead time exceeding that of the IFS for the first time.

The advent of universal time series forecasting models has revolutionized zero-shot forecasting across diverse domains, yet the critical role of data diversity in training these models remains underexplored. Existing large-scale time series datasets often suffer from inherent biases and imbalanced distributions, leading to suboptimal model performance and generalization. To address this gap, we introduce BLAST, a novel pre-training corpus designed to enhance data diversity through a balanced sampling strategy. First, BLAST incorporates 321 billion observations from publicly available datasets and employs a comprehensive suite of statistical metrics to characterize time series patterns. Then, to facilitate pattern-oriented sampling, the data is implicitly clustered using grid-based partitioning. Furthermore, by integrating grid sampling and grid mixup techniques, BLAST ensures a balanced and representative coverage of diverse patterns. Experimental results demonstrate that models pre-trained on BLAST achieve state-of-the-art performance with a fraction of the computational resources and training tokens required by existing methods. Our findings highlight the pivotal role of data diversity in improving both training efficiency and model performance for the universal forecasting task.

Machine learning has successfully framed many sequential decision making problems as either supervised prediction, or optimal decision-making policy identification via reinforcement learning. In data-constrained offline settings, both approaches may fail as they assume fully optimal behavior or rely on exploring alternatives that may not exist. We introduce an inherently different approach that identifies possible "dead-ends" of a state space. We focus on the condition of patients in the intensive care unit, where a "medical dead-end" indicates that a patient will expire, regardless of all potential future treatment sequences. We postulate "treatment security" as avoiding treatments with probability proportional to their chance of leading to dead-ends, present a formal proof, and frame discovery as an RL problem. We then train three independent deep neural models for automated state construction, dead-end discovery and confirmation. Our empirical results discover that dead-ends exist in real clinical data among septic patients, and further reveal gaps between secure treatments and those that were administered.

Motivation: The development of novel compounds targeting proteins of interest is one of the most important tasks in the pharmaceutical industry. Deep generative models have been applied to targeted molecular design and have shown promising results. Recently, target-specific molecule generation has been viewed as a translation between the protein language and the chemical language. However, such a model is limited by the availability of interacting protein-ligand pairs. On the other hand, large amounts of unlabeled protein sequences and chemical compounds are available and have been used to train language models that learn useful representations. In this study, we propose exploiting pretrained biochemical language models to initialize (i.e. warm start) targeted molecule generation models. We investigate two warm start strategies: (i) a one-stage strategy where the initialized model is trained on targeted molecule generation (ii) a two-stage strategy containing a pre-finetuning on molecular generation followed by target specific training. We also compare two decoding strategies to generate compounds: beam search and sampling. Results: The results show that the warm-started models perform better than a baseline model trained from scratch. The two proposed warm-start strategies achieve similar results to each other with respect to widely used metrics from benchmarks. However, docking evaluation of the generated compounds for a number of novel proteins suggests that the one-stage strategy generalizes better than the two-stage strategy. Additionally, we observe that beam search outperforms sampling in both docking evaluation and benchmark metrics for assessing compound quality. Availability and implementation: The source code is available at https://github.com/boun-tabi/biochemical-lms-for-drug-design and the materials are archived in Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6832145

We present a data-driven approach for forecasting global weather using graph neural networks. The system learns to step forward the current 3D atmospheric state by six hours, and multiple steps are chained together to produce skillful forecasts going out several days into the future. The underlying model is trained on reanalysis data from ERA5 or forecast data from GFS. Test performance on metrics such as Z500 (geopotential height) and T850 (temperature) improves upon previous data-driven approaches and is comparable to operational, full-resolution, physical models from GFS and ECMWF, at least when evaluated on 1-degree scales and when using reanalysis initial conditions. We also show results from connecting this data-driven model to live, operational forecasts from GFS.

Many businesses and industries nowadays rely on large quantities of time series data making time series forecasting an important research area. Global forecasting models that are trained across sets of time series have shown a huge potential in providing accurate forecasts compared with the traditional univariate forecasting models that work on isolated series. However, there are currently no comprehensive time series archives for forecasting that contain datasets of time series from similar sources available for the research community to evaluate the performance of new global forecasting algorithms over a wide variety of datasets. In this paper, we present such a comprehensive time series forecasting archive containing 20 publicly available time series datasets from varied domains, with different characteristics in terms of frequency, series lengths, and inclusion of missing values. We also characterise the datasets, and identify similarities and differences among them, by conducting a feature analysis. Furthermore, we present the performance of a set of standard baseline forecasting methods over all datasets across eight error metrics, for the benefit of researchers using the archive to benchmark their forecasting algorithms.

With an ever-increasing availability of data, it has become more and more challenging to select and label appropriate samples for the training of machine learning models. It is especially difficult to detect long-tail classes of interest in large amounts of unlabeled data. This holds especially true for Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), where vehicle fleets and roadside perception systems generate an abundance of raw data. While industrial, proprietary data engines for such iterative data selection and model training processes exist, researchers and the open-source community suffer from a lack of an openly available system. We present the Mcity Data Engine, which provides modules for the complete data-based development cycle, beginning at the data acquisition phase and ending at the model deployment stage. The Mcity Data Engine focuses on rare and novel classes through an open-vocabulary data selection process. All code is publicly available on GitHub under an MIT license: https://github.com/mcity/mcity_data_engine

Time series foundation models excel in zero-shot forecasting, handling diverse tasks without explicit training. However, the advancement of these models has been hindered by the lack of comprehensive benchmarks. To address this gap, we introduce the General Time Series Forecasting Model Evaluation, GIFT-Eval, a pioneering benchmark aimed at promoting evaluation across diverse datasets. GIFT-Eval encompasses 28 datasets over 144,000 time series and 177 million data points, spanning seven domains, 10 frequencies, multivariate inputs, and prediction lengths ranging from short to long-term forecasts. To facilitate the effective pretraining and evaluation of foundation models, we also provide a non-leaking pretraining dataset containing approximately 230 billion data points. Additionally, we provide a comprehensive analysis of 17 baselines, which includes statistical models, deep learning models, and foundation models. We discuss each model in the context of various benchmark characteristics and offer a qualitative analysis that spans both deep learning and foundation models. We believe the insights from this analysis, along with access to this new standard zero-shot time series forecasting benchmark, will guide future developments in time series foundation models. The codebase, datasets, and a leaderboard showing all the results in detail will be available soon.

In practical scenarios, the effectiveness of sequential recommendation systems is hindered by the user cold-start problem, which arises due to limited interactions for accurately determining user preferences. Previous studies have attempted to address this issue by combining meta-learning with user and item-side information. However, these approaches face inherent challenges in modeling user preference dynamics, particularly for "minor users" who exhibit distinct preferences compared to more common or "major users." To overcome these limitations, we present a novel approach called ClusterSeq, a Meta-Learning Clustering-Based Sequential Recommender System. ClusterSeq leverages dynamic information in the user sequence to enhance item prediction accuracy, even in the absence of side information. This model preserves the preferences of minor users without being overshadowed by major users, and it capitalizes on the collective knowledge of users within the same cluster. Extensive experiments conducted on various benchmark datasets validate the effectiveness of ClusterSeq. Empirical results consistently demonstrate that ClusterSeq outperforms several state-of-the-art meta-learning recommenders. Notably, compared to existing meta-learning methods, our proposed approach achieves a substantial improvement of 16-39% in Mean Reciprocal Rank (MRR).

The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential to identify early warning signals that would allow researchers and managers to predict such events before they happen has therefore been an invaluable discovery that offers a way forward in spite of such seemingly unpredictable behavior. Research into early warning signals has demonstrated that it is possible to define and detect such early warning signals in advance of a transition in certain contexts. Here we describe the pattern emerging as research continues to explore just how far we can generalize these results. A core of examples emerges that shares three properties: the phenomenon of rapid regime shifts, a pattern of 'critical slowing down' that can be used to detect the approaching shift, and a mechanism of bifurcation driving the sudden change. As research has expanded beyond these core examples, it is becoming clear that not all systems that show regime shifts exhibit critical slowing down, or vice versa. Even when systems exhibit critical slowing down, statistical detection is a challenge. We review the literature that explores these edge cases and highlight the need for (a) new early warning behaviors that can be used in cases where rapid shifts do not exhibit critical slowing down, (b) the development of methods to identify which behavior might be an appropriate signal when encountering a novel system; bearing in mind that a positive indication for some systems is a negative indication in others, and (c) statistical methods that can distinguish between signatures of early warning behaviors and noise.

Background. Fully automatic analysis of myocardial perfusion MRI datasets enables rapid and objective reporting of stress/rest studies in patients with suspected ischemic heart disease. Developing deep learning techniques that can analyze multi-center datasets despite limited training data and variations in software and hardware is an ongoing challenge. Methods. Datasets from 3 medical centers acquired at 3T (n = 150 subjects) were included: an internal dataset (inD; n = 95) and two external datasets (exDs; n = 55) used for evaluating the robustness of the trained deep neural network (DNN) models against differences in pulse sequence (exD-1) and scanner vendor (exD-2). A subset of inD (n = 85) was used for training/validation of a pool of DNNs for segmentation, all using the same spatiotemporal U-Net architecture and hyperparameters but with different parameter initializations. We employed a space-time sliding-patch analysis approach that automatically yields a pixel-wise "uncertainty map" as a byproduct of the segmentation process. In our approach, a given test case is segmented by all members of the DNN pool and the resulting uncertainty maps are leveraged to automatically select the "best" one among the pool of solutions. Results. The proposed DAUGS analysis approach performed similarly to the established approach on the internal dataset (p = n.s.) whereas it significantly outperformed on the external datasets (p < 0.005 for exD-1 and exD-2). Moreover, the number of image series with "failed" segmentation was significantly lower for the proposed vs. the established approach (4.3% vs. 17.1%, p < 0.0005). Conclusions. The proposed DAUGS analysis approach has the potential to improve the robustness of deep learning methods for segmentation of multi-center stress perfusion datasets with variations in the choice of pulse sequence, site location or scanner vendor.

Modern climate projections lack adequate spatial and temporal resolution due to computational constraints. A consequence is inaccurate and imprecise predictions of critical processes such as storms. Hybrid methods that combine physics with machine learning (ML) have introduced a new generation of higher fidelity climate simulators that can sidestep Moore's Law by outsourcing compute-hungry, short, high-resolution simulations to ML emulators. However, this hybrid ML-physics simulation approach requires domain-specific treatment and has been inaccessible to ML experts because of lack of training data and relevant, easy-to-use workflows. We present ClimSim, the largest-ever dataset designed for hybrid ML-physics research. It comprises multi-scale climate simulations, developed by a consortium of climate scientists and ML researchers. It consists of 5.7 billion pairs of multivariate input and output vectors that isolate the influence of locally-nested, high-resolution, high-fidelity physics on a host climate simulator's macro-scale physical state. The dataset is global in coverage, spans multiple years at high sampling frequency, and is designed such that resulting emulators are compatible with downstream coupling into operational climate simulators. We implement a range of deterministic and stochastic regression baselines to highlight the ML challenges and their scoring. The data (https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_high-res, https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_low-res, and https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_low-res_aqua-planet) and code (https://leap-stc.github.io/ClimSim) are released openly to support the development of hybrid ML-physics and high-fidelity climate simulations for the benefit of science and society.

We present a large real-world dataset obtained from monitoring a smart company facility over the course of six years, from 2018 to 2023. The dataset includes energy consumption data from various facility areas and components, energy production data from a photovoltaic system and a combined heat and power plant, operational data from heating and cooling systems, and weather data from an on-site weather station. The measurement sensors installed throughout the facility are organized in a hierarchical metering structure with multiple sub-metering levels, which is reflected in the dataset. The dataset contains measurement data from 72 energy meters, 9 heat meters and a weather station. Both raw and processed data at different processing levels, including labeled issues, is available. In this paper, we describe the data acquisition and post-processing employed to create the dataset. The dataset enables the application of a wide range of methods in the domain of energy management, including optimization, modeling, and machine learning to optimize building operations and reduce costs and carbon emissions.

Large language models have recently been shown to attain reasonable zero-shot generalization on a diverse set of tasks (Brown et al., 2020). It has been hypothesized that this is a consequence of implicit multitask learning in language models' pretraining (Radford et al., 2019). Can zero-shot generalization instead be directly induced by explicit multitask learning? To test this question at scale, we develop a system for easily mapping any natural language tasks into a human-readable prompted form. We convert a large set of supervised datasets, each with multiple prompts with diverse wording. These prompted datasets allow for benchmarking the ability of a model to perform completely held-out tasks. We fine-tune a pretrained encoder-decoder model (Raffel et al., 2020; Lester et al., 2021) on this multitask mixture covering a wide variety of tasks. The model attains strong zero-shot performance on several standard datasets, often outperforming models up to 16x its size. Further, our approach attains strong performance on a subset of tasks from the BIG-bench benchmark, outperforming models up to 6x its size. All trained models are available at https://github.com/bigscience-workshop/t-zero and all prompts are available at https://github.com/bigscience-workshop/promptsource.

Early stopping based on hold-out data is a popular regularization technique designed to mitigate overfitting and increase the predictive accuracy of neural networks. Models trained with early stopping often provide relatively accurate predictions, but they generally still lack precise statistical guarantees unless they are further calibrated using independent hold-out data. This paper addresses the above limitation with conformalized early stopping: a novel method that combines early stopping with conformal calibration while efficiently recycling the same hold-out data. This leads to models that are both accurate and able to provide exact predictive inferences without multiple data splits nor overly conservative adjustments. Practical implementations are developed for different learning tasks -- outlier detection, multi-class classification, regression -- and their competitive performance is demonstrated on real data.

It stands to reason that the amount and the quality of data is of key importance for setting up accurate AI-driven models. Among others, a fundamental aspect to consider is the bias introduced during sample selection in database generation. This is particularly relevant when a model is trained on a specialized dataset to predict a property of interest, and then applied to forecast the same property over samples having a completely different genesis. Indeed, the resulting biased model will likely produce unreliable predictions for many of those out-of-the-box samples. Neglecting such an aspect may hinder the AI-based discovery process, even when high quality, sufficiently large and highly reputable data sources are available. In this regard, with superconducting and thermoelectric materials as two prototypical case studies in the field of energy material discovery, we present and validate a new method (based on a classification strategy) capable of detecting, quantifying and circumventing the presence of cross-domain data bias.

Electric vehicles (EVs) play an important role in reducing carbon emissions. As EV adoption accelerates, safety issues caused by EV batteries have become an important research topic. In order to benchmark and develop data-driven methods for this task, we introduce a large and comprehensive dataset of EV batteries. Our dataset includes charging records collected from hundreds of EVs from three manufacturers over several years. Our dataset is the first large-scale public dataset on real-world battery data, as existing data either include only several vehicles or is collected in the lab environment. Meanwhile, our dataset features two types of labels, corresponding to two key tasks - battery health estimation and battery capacity estimation. In addition to demonstrating how existing deep learning algorithms can be applied to this task, we further develop an algorithm that exploits the data structure of battery systems. Our algorithm achieves better results and shows that a customized method can improve model performances. We hope that this public dataset provides valuable resources for researchers, policymakers, and industry professionals to better understand the dynamics of EV battery aging and support the transition toward a sustainable transportation system.

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces -- a statistical error often known as the Prosecutor's Fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than these more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.

The ability to generate SQL queries from natural language has significant implications for making data accessible to non-specialists. This paper presents a novel approach to fine-tuning open-source large language models (LLMs) for the task of transforming natural language into SQL queries within the retail domain. We introduce models specialized in generating SQL queries, trained on synthetic datasets tailored to the Snowflake SQL and GoogleSQL dialects. Our methodology involves generating a context-specific dataset using GPT-4, then fine-tuning three open-source LLMs(Starcoder Plus, Code-Llama, and Mistral) employing the LoRa technique to optimize for resource constraints. The fine-tuned models demonstrate superior performance in zero-shot settings compared to the baseline GPT-4, with Code-Llama achieving the highest accuracy rates, at 81.58% for Snowflake SQL and 82.66% for GoogleSQL. These results underscore the effectiveness of fine-tuning LLMs on domain-specific tasks and suggest a promising direction for enhancing the accessibility of relational databases through natural language interfaces.

Translating natural language into SQL (Test2SQL) is a longstanding challenge at the intersection of natural language understanding and structured data access. While large language models (LLMs) have significantly improved fluency in SQL generation, producing correct and executable SQL--particularly for complex queries--remains a bottleneck. We present Arctic-Text2SQL-R1, a reinforcement learning (RL) framework and model family designed to generate accurate, executable SQL using a lightweight reward signal based solely on execution correctness. Our approach avoids brittle intermediate supervision and complex reward shaping, promoting stable training and alignment with the end task. Combined with carefully curated data, strong supervised initialization, and effective training practices, Arctic-Text2SQL-R1 achieves state-of-the-art execution accuracy across six diverse Test2SQL benchmarks, including the top position on the BIRD leaderboard. Notably, our 7B model outperforms prior 70B-class systems, highlighting the framework's scalability and efficiency. We further demonstrate inference-time robustness through simple extensions like value retrieval and majority voting. Extensive experiments and ablation studies offer both positive and negative insights, providing practical guidance for future Test2SQL research.

High-quality machine learning (ML)-ready datasets play a foundational role in developing new artificial intelligence (AI) models or fine-tuning existing models for scientific applications such as weather and climate analysis. Unfortunately, despite the growing development of new deep learning models for weather and climate, there is a scarcity of curated, pre-processed machine learning (ML)-ready datasets. Curating such high-quality datasets for developing new models is challenging particularly because the modality of the input data varies significantly for different downstream tasks addressing different atmospheric scales (spatial and temporal). Here we introduce WxC-Bench (Weather and Climate Bench), a multi-modal dataset designed to support the development of generalizable AI models for downstream use-cases in weather and climate research. WxC-Bench is designed as a dataset of datasets for developing ML-models for a complex weather and climate system, addressing selected downstream tasks as machine learning phenomenon. WxC-Bench encompasses several atmospheric processes from meso-beta (20 - 200 km) scale to synoptic scales (2500 km), such as aviation turbulence, hurricane intensity and track monitoring, weather analog search, gravity wave parameterization, and natural language report generation. We provide a comprehensive description of the dataset and also present a technical validation for baseline analysis. The dataset and code to prepare the ML-ready data have been made publicly available on Hugging Face -- https://huggingface.co/datasets/nasa-impact/WxC-Bench

The industry is rich in cases when we are required to make forecasting for large amounts of time series at once. However, we might be in a situation where we can not afford to train a separate model for each of them. Such issue in time series modeling remains without due attention. The remedy for this setting is the establishment of a foundation model. Such a model is expected to work in zero-shot and few-shot regimes. However, what should we take as a training dataset for such kind of model? Witnessing the benefits from the enrichment of NLP datasets with artificially-generated data, we might want to adopt their experience for time series. In contrast to natural language, the process of generation of synthetic time series data is even more favorable because it provides full control of series patterns, time horizons, and number of samples. In this work, we consider the essential question if it is advantageous to train a foundation model on synthetic data or it is better to utilize only a limited number of real-life examples. Our experiments are conducted only for regular time series and speak in favor of leveraging solely the real time series. Moreover, the choice of the proper source dataset strongly influences the performance during inference. When provided access even to a limited quantity of short time series data, employing it within a supervised framework yields more favorable results than training on a larger volume of synthetic data. The code for our experiments is publicly available on Github https://github.com/sb-ai-lab/synthesize_or_not.

The 100 MW cryogenic liquid oxygen/hydrogen multi-injector combustor BKD operated by the DLR Institute of Space Propulsion is a research platform that allows the study of thermoacoustic instabilities under realistic conditions, representative of small upper stage rocket engines. We use data from BKD experimental campaigns in which the static chamber pressure and fuel-oxidizer ratio are varied such that the first tangential mode of the combustor is excited under some conditions. We train an autoregressive Bayesian neural network model to forecast the amplitude of the dynamic pressure time series, inputting multiple sensor measurements (injector pressure/ temperature measurements, static chamber pressure, high-frequency dynamic pressure measurements, high-frequency OH* chemiluminescence measurements) and future flow rate control signals. The Bayesian nature of our algorithms allows us to work with a dataset whose size is restricted by the expense of each experimental run, without making overconfident extrapolations. We find that the networks are able to accurately forecast the evolution of the pressure amplitude and anticipate instability events on unseen experimental runs 500 milliseconds in advance. We compare the predictive accuracy of multiple models using different combinations of sensor inputs. We find that the high-frequency dynamic pressure signal is particularly informative. We also use the technique of integrated gradients to interpret the influence of different sensor inputs on the model prediction. The negative log-likelihood of data points in the test dataset indicates that predictive uncertainties are well-characterized by our Bayesian model and simulating a sensor failure event results as expected in a dramatic increase in the epistemic component of the uncertainty.

Data-driven modeling based on machine learning (ML) is showing enormous potential for weather forecasting. Rapid progress has been made with impressive results for some applications. The uptake of ML methods could be a game-changer for the incremental progress in traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) known as the 'quiet revolution' of weather forecasting. The computational cost of running a forecast with standard NWP systems greatly hinders the improvements that can be made from increasing model resolution and ensemble sizes. An emerging new generation of ML models, developed using high-quality reanalysis datasets like ERA5 for training, allow forecasts that require much lower computational costs and that are highly-competitive in terms of accuracy. Here, we compare for the first time ML-generated forecasts with standard NWP-based forecasts in an operational-like context, initialized from the same initial conditions. Focusing on deterministic forecasts, we apply common forecast verification tools to assess to what extent a data-driven forecast produced with one of the recently developed ML models (PanguWeather) matches the quality and attributes of a forecast from one of the leading global NWP systems (the ECMWF IFS). The results are very promising, with comparable skill for both global metrics and extreme events, when verified against both the operational analysis and synoptic observations. Increasing forecast smoothness and bias drift with forecast lead time are identified as current drawbacks of ML-based forecasts. A new NWP paradigm is emerging relying on inference from ML models and state-of-the-art analysis and reanalysis datasets for forecast initialization and model training.

The coldest Y spectral type brown dwarfs are similar in mass and temperature to cool and warm (sim200 -- 400 K) giant exoplanets. We can therefore use their atmospheres as proxies for planetary atmospheres, testing our understanding of physics and chemistry for these complex, cool worlds. At these cold temperatures, their atmospheres are cold enough for water clouds to form, and chemical timescales increase, increasing the likelihood of disequilibrium chemistry compared to warmer classes of planets. JWST observations are revolutionizing the characterization of these worlds with high signal-to-noise, moderate resolution near- and mid-infrared spectra. The spectra have been used to measure the abundances of prominent species like water, methane, and ammonia; species that trace chemical reactions like carbon monoxide; and even isotopologues of carbon monoxide and ammonia. Here, we present atmospheric retrieval results using both published fixed-slit (GTO program 1230) and new averaged time series observations (GO program 2327) of the coldest known Y dwarf, WISE 0855-0714 (using NIRSpec G395M spectra), which has an effective temperature of sim 264 K. We present a detection of deuterium in an atmosphere outside of the solar system via a relative measurement of deuterated methane (CH_{3}D) and standard methane. From this, we infer the D/H ratio of a substellar object outside the solar system for the first time. We also present a well-constrained part-per-billion abundance of phosphine (PH_{3}). We discuss our interpretation of these results and the implications for brown dwarf and giant exoplanet formation and evolution.

In the face of escalating climate changes, typhoon intensities and their ensuing damage have surged. Accurate trajectory prediction is crucial for effective damage control. Traditional physics-based models, while comprehensive, are computationally intensive and rely heavily on the expertise of forecasters. Contemporary data-driven methods often rely on reanalysis data, which can be considered to be the closest to the true representation of weather conditions. However, reanalysis data is not produced in real-time and requires time for adjustment because prediction models are calibrated with observational data. This reanalysis data, such as ERA5, falls short in challenging real-world situations. Optimal preparedness necessitates predictions at least 72 hours in advance, beyond the capabilities of standard physics models. In response to these constraints, we present an approach that harnesses real-time Unified Model (UM) data, sidestepping the limitations of reanalysis data. Our model provides predictions at 6-hour intervals for up to 72 hours in advance and outperforms both state-of-the-art data-driven methods and numerical weather prediction models. In line with our efforts to mitigate adversities inflicted by typhoons, we release our preprocessed PHYSICS TRACK dataset, which includes ERA5 reanalysis data, typhoon best-track, and UM forecast data.

Large language models are being widely used across industries to generate content that contributes directly to key performance metrics, such as conversion rates. Pretrained models, however, often fall short when it comes to aligning with human preferences or optimizing for business objectives. As a result, fine-tuning with good-quality labeled data is essential to guide models to generate content that achieves better results. Controlled experiments, like A/B tests, can provide such data, but they are often expensive and come with significant engineering and logistical challenges. Meanwhile, companies have access to a vast amount of historical (observational) data that remains underutilized. In this work, we study the challenges and opportunities of fine-tuning LLMs using observational data. We show that while observational outcomes can provide valuable supervision, directly fine-tuning models on such data can lead them to learn spurious correlations. We present empirical evidence of this issue using various real-world datasets and propose DeconfoundLM, a method that explicitly removes the effect of known confounders from reward signals. Using simulation experiments, we demonstrate that DeconfoundLM improves the recovery of causal relationships and mitigates failure modes found in fine-tuning methods that ignore or naively incorporate confounding variables. Our findings highlight that while observational data presents risks, with the right causal corrections, it can be a powerful source of signal for LLM alignment. Please refer to the project page for code and related resources.

The Boreas dataset was collected by driving a repeated route over the course of one year, resulting in stark seasonal variations and adverse weather conditions such as rain and falling snow. In total, the Boreas dataset includes over 350km of driving data featuring a 128-channel Velodyne Alpha Prime lidar, a 360^circ Navtech CIR304-H scanning radar, a 5MP FLIR Blackfly S camera, and centimetre-accurate post-processed ground truth poses. Our dataset will support live leaderboards for odometry, metric localization, and 3D object detection. The dataset and development kit are available at https://www.boreas.utias.utoronto.ca

Offline reinforcement learning algorithms hold the promise of enabling data-driven RL methods that do not require costly or dangerous real-world exploration and benefit from large pre-collected datasets. This in turn can facilitate real-world applications, as well as a more standardized approach to RL research. Furthermore, offline RL methods can provide effective initializations for online finetuning to overcome challenges with exploration. However, evaluating progress on offline RL algorithms requires effective and challenging benchmarks that capture properties of real-world tasks, provide a range of task difficulties, and cover a range of challenges both in terms of the parameters of the domain (e.g., length of the horizon, sparsity of rewards) and the parameters of the data (e.g., narrow demonstration data or broad exploratory data). While considerable progress in offline RL in recent years has been enabled by simpler benchmark tasks, the most widely used datasets are increasingly saturating in performance and may fail to reflect properties of realistic tasks. We propose a new benchmark for offline RL that focuses on realistic simulations of robotic manipulation and locomotion environments, based on models of real-world robotic systems, and comprising a variety of data sources, including scripted data, play-style data collected by human teleoperators, and other data sources. Our proposed benchmark covers state-based and image-based domains, and supports both offline RL and online fine-tuning evaluation, with some of the tasks specifically designed to require both pre-training and fine-tuning. We hope that our proposed benchmark will facilitate further progress on both offline RL and fine-tuning algorithms. Website with code, examples, tasks, and data is available at https://sites.google.com/view/d5rl/

In this paper, we introduce TimeGPT, the first foundation model for time series, capable of generating accurate predictions for diverse datasets not seen during training. We evaluate our pre-trained model against established statistical, machine learning, and deep learning methods, demonstrating that TimeGPT zero-shot inference excels in performance, efficiency, and simplicity. Our study provides compelling evidence that insights from other domains of artificial intelligence can be effectively applied to time series analysis. We conclude that large-scale time series models offer an exciting opportunity to democratize access to precise predictions and reduce uncertainty by leveraging the capabilities of contemporary advancements in deep learning.

We present TimeFound, an encoder-decoder transformer-based time series foundation model for out-of-the-box zero-shot forecasting. To handle time series data from various domains, TimeFound employs a multi-resolution patching strategy to capture complex temporal patterns at multiple scales. We pre-train our model with two sizes (200M and 710M parameters) on a large time-series corpus comprising both real-world and synthetic datasets. Over a collection of unseen datasets across diverse domains and forecasting horizons, our empirical evaluations suggest that TimeFound can achieve superior or competitive zero-shot forecasting performance, compared to state-of-the-art time series foundation models.

Reinforcement learning (RL) agents improve through trial-and-error, but when reward is sparse and the agent cannot discover successful action sequences, learning stagnates. This has been a notable problem in training deep RL agents to perform web-based tasks, such as booking flights or replying to emails, where a single mistake can ruin the entire sequence of actions. A common remedy is to "warm-start" the agent by pre-training it to mimic expert demonstrations, but this is prone to overfitting. Instead, we propose to constrain exploration using demonstrations. From each demonstration, we induce high-level "workflows" which constrain the allowable actions at each time step to be similar to those in the demonstration (e.g., "Step 1: click on a textbox; Step 2: enter some text"). Our exploration policy then learns to identify successful workflows and samples actions that satisfy these workflows. Workflows prune out bad exploration directions and accelerate the agent's ability to discover rewards. We use our approach to train a novel neural policy designed to handle the semi-structured nature of websites, and evaluate on a suite of web tasks, including the recent World of Bits benchmark. We achieve new state-of-the-art results, and show that workflow-guided exploration improves sample efficiency over behavioral cloning by more than 100x.

This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the data preparation pipeline developed for the OpenGPT-X project, a large-scale initiative aimed at creating open and high-performance multilingual large language models (LLMs). The project goal is to deliver models that cover all major European languages, with a particular focus on real-world applications within the European Union. We explain all data processing steps, starting with the data selection and requirement definition to the preparation of the final datasets for model training. We distinguish between curated data and web data, as each of these categories is handled by distinct pipelines, with curated data undergoing minimal filtering and web data requiring extensive filtering and deduplication. This distinction guided the development of specialized algorithmic solutions for both pipelines. In addition to describing the processing methodologies, we provide an in-depth analysis of the datasets, increasing transparency and alignment with European data regulations. Finally, we share key insights and challenges faced during the project, offering recommendations for future endeavors in large-scale multilingual data preparation for LLMs.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is making a profound impact in almost every domain. A vital enabler of its great success is the availability of abundant and high-quality data for building machine learning models. Recently, the role of data in AI has been significantly magnified, giving rise to the emerging concept of data-centric AI. The attention of researchers and practitioners has gradually shifted from advancing model design to enhancing the quality and quantity of the data. In this survey, we discuss the necessity of data-centric AI, followed by a holistic view of three general data-centric goals (training data development, inference data development, and data maintenance) and the representative methods. We also organize the existing literature from automation and collaboration perspectives, discuss the challenges, and tabulate the benchmarks for various tasks. We believe this is the first comprehensive survey that provides a global view of a spectrum of tasks across various stages of the data lifecycle. We hope it can help the readers efficiently grasp a broad picture of this field, and equip them with the techniques and further research ideas to systematically engineer data for building AI systems. A companion list of data-centric AI resources will be regularly updated on https://github.com/daochenzha/data-centric-AI

With climate change-related extreme events on the rise, high dimensional Earth observation data presents a unique opportunity for forecasting and understanding impacts on ecosystems. This is, however, impeded by the complexity of processing, visualizing, modeling, and explaining this data. To showcase how this challenge can be met, here we train a convolutional long short-term memory-based architecture on the novel DeepExtremeCubes dataset. DeepExtremeCubes includes around 40,000 long-term Sentinel-2 minicubes (January 2016-October 2022) worldwide, along with labeled extreme events, meteorological data, vegetation land cover, and topography map, sampled from locations affected by extreme climate events and surrounding areas. When predicting future reflectances and vegetation impacts through kernel normalized difference vegetation index, the model achieved an R^2 score of 0.9055 in the test set. Explainable artificial intelligence was used to analyze the model's predictions during the October 2020 Central South America compound heatwave and drought event. We chose the same area exactly one year before the event as counterfactual, finding that the average temperature and surface pressure are generally the best predictors under normal conditions. In contrast, minimum anomalies of evaporation and surface latent heat flux take the lead during the event. A change of regime is also observed in the attributions before the event, which might help assess how long the event was brewing before happening. The code to replicate all experiments and figures in this paper is publicly available at https://github.com/DeepExtremes/txyXAI

We introduce GraphDOP, a new data-driven, end-to-end forecast system developed at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) that is trained and initialised exclusively from Earth System observations, with no physics-based (re)analysis inputs or feedbacks. GraphDOP learns the correlations between observed quantities - such as brightness temperatures from polar orbiters and geostationary satellites - and geophysical quantities of interest (that are measured by conventional observations), to form a coherent latent representation of Earth System state dynamics and physical processes, and is capable of producing skilful predictions of relevant weather parameters up to five days into the future.

Can meta-learning discover generic ways of processing time series (TS) from a diverse dataset so as to greatly improve generalization on new TS coming from different datasets? This work provides positive evidence to this using a broad meta-learning framework which we show subsumes many existing meta-learning algorithms. Our theoretical analysis suggests that residual connections act as a meta-learning adaptation mechanism, generating a subset of task-specific parameters based on a given TS input, thus gradually expanding the expressive power of the architecture on-the-fly. The same mechanism is shown via linearization analysis to have the interpretation of a sequential update of the final linear layer. Our empirical results on a wide range of data emphasize the importance of the identified meta-learning mechanisms for successful zero-shot univariate forecasting, suggesting that it is viable to train a neural network on a source TS dataset and deploy it on a different target TS dataset without retraining, resulting in performance that is at least as good as that of state-of-practice univariate forecasting models.

We introduce MOMENT, a family of open-source foundation models for general-purpose time-series analysis. Pre-training large models on time-series data is challenging due to (1) the absence of a large and cohesive public time-series repository, and (2) diverse time-series characteristics which make multi-dataset training onerous. Additionally, (3) experimental benchmarks to evaluate these models, especially in scenarios with limited resources, time, and supervision, are still in their nascent stages. To address these challenges, we compile a large and diverse collection of public time-series, called the Time-series Pile, and systematically tackle time-series-specific challenges to unlock large-scale multi-dataset pre-training. Finally, we build on recent work to design a benchmark to evaluate time-series foundation models on diverse tasks and datasets in limited supervision settings. Experiments on this benchmark demonstrate the effectiveness of our pre-trained models with minimal data and task-specific fine-tuning. Finally, we present several interesting empirical observations about large pre-trained time-series models. Our code is available anonymously at anonymous.4open.science/r/BETT-773F/.

Recent efforts have been dedicated to enhancing time series forecasting accuracy by introducing advanced network architectures and self-supervised pretraining strategies. Nevertheless, existing approaches still exhibit two critical drawbacks. Firstly, these methods often rely on a single dataset for training, limiting the model's generalizability due to the restricted scale of the training data. Secondly, the one-step generation schema is widely followed, which necessitates a customized forecasting head and overlooks the temporal dependencies in the output series, and also leads to increased training costs under different horizon length settings. To address these issues, we propose a novel generative pretrained hierarchical transformer architecture for forecasting, named GPHT. There are two aspects of key designs in GPHT. On the one hand, we advocate for constructing a mixed dataset for pretraining our model, comprising various datasets from diverse data scenarios. This approach significantly expands the scale of training data, allowing our model to uncover commonalities in time series data and facilitating improved transfer to specific datasets. On the other hand, GPHT employs an auto-regressive forecasting approach under the channel-independent assumption, effectively modeling temporal dependencies in the output series. Importantly, no customized forecasting head is required, enabling a single model to forecast at arbitrary horizon settings. We conduct sufficient experiments on eight datasets with mainstream self-supervised pretraining models and supervised models. The results demonstrated that GPHT surpasses the baseline models across various fine-tuning and zero/few-shot learning settings in the traditional long-term forecasting task, providing support for verifying the feasibility of pretrained time series large models.

Maritime transportation is paramount in achieving global economic growth, entailing concurrent ecological obligations in sustainability and safeguarding endangered marine species, most notably preserving large whale populations. In this regard, the Automatic Identification System (AIS) data plays a significant role by offering real-time streaming data on vessel movement, allowing enhanced traffic monitoring. This study explores using AIS data to prevent vessel-to-whale collisions by forecasting long-term vessel trajectories from engineered AIS data sequences. For such a task, we have developed an encoder-decoder model architecture using Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Networks (Bi-LSTM) to predict the next 12 hours of vessel trajectories using 1 to 3 hours of AIS data as input. We feed the model with probabilistic features engineered from historical AIS data that refer to each trajectory's potential route and destination. The model then predicts the vessel's trajectory, considering these additional features by leveraging convolutional layers for spatial feature learning and a position-aware attention mechanism that increases the importance of recent timesteps of a sequence during temporal feature learning. The probabilistic features have an F1 Score of approximately 85% and 75% for each feature type, respectively, demonstrating their effectiveness in augmenting information to the neural network. We test our model on the Gulf of St. Lawrence, a region known to be the habitat of North Atlantic Right Whales (NARW). Our model achieved a high R2 score of over 98% using various techniques and features. It stands out among other approaches as it can make complex decisions during turnings and path selection. Our study highlights the potential of data engineering and trajectory forecasting models for marine life species preservation.

Weather forecasting is critical for a range of human activities including transportation, agriculture, industry, as well as the safety of the general public. Machine learning models have the potential to transform the complex weather prediction pipeline, but current approaches still rely on numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems, limiting forecast speed and accuracy. Here we demonstrate that a machine learning model can replace the entire operational NWP pipeline. Aardvark Weather, an end-to-end data-driven weather prediction system, ingests raw observations and outputs global gridded forecasts and local station forecasts. Further, it can be optimised end-to-end to maximise performance over quantities of interest. Global forecasts outperform an operational NWP baseline for multiple variables and lead times. Local station forecasts are skillful up to ten days lead time and achieve comparable and often lower errors than a post-processed global NWP baseline and a state-of-the-art end-to-end forecasting system with input from human forecasters. These forecasts are produced with a remarkably simple neural process model using just 8% of the input data and three orders of magnitude less compute than existing NWP and hybrid AI-NWP methods. We anticipate that Aardvark Weather will be the starting point for a new generation of end-to-end machine learning models for medium-range forecasting that will reduce computational costs by orders of magnitude and enable the rapid and cheap creation of bespoke models for users in a variety of fields, including for the developing world where state-of-the-art local models are not currently available.

This work describes a process for efficiently fine-tuning the GraphCast data-driven forecast model to simulate another analysis system, here the Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS) of Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). Using two years of training data (July 2019 -- December 2021) and 37 GPU-days of computation to tune the 37-level, quarter-degree version of GraphCast, the resulting model significantly outperforms both the unmodified GraphCast and operational forecast, showing significant forecast skill in the troposphere over lead times from 1 to 10 days. This fine-tuning is accomplished through abbreviating DeepMind's original training curriculum for GraphCast, relying on a shorter single-step forecast stage to accomplish the bulk of the adaptation work and consolidating the autoregressive stages into separate 12hr, 1d, 2d, and 3d stages with larger learning rates. Additionally, training over 3d forecasts is split into two sub-steps to conserve host memory while maintaining a strong correlation with training over the full period.

This work focuses on leveraging and selecting from vast, unlabeled, open data to pre-fine-tune a pre-trained language model. The goal is to minimize the need for costly domain-specific data for subsequent fine-tuning while achieving desired performance levels. While many data selection algorithms have been designed for small-scale applications, rendering them unsuitable for our context, some emerging methods do cater to language data scales. However, they often prioritize data that aligns with the target distribution. While this strategy may be effective when training a model from scratch, it can yield limited results when the model has already been pre-trained on a different distribution. Differing from prior work, our key idea is to select data that nudges the pre-training distribution closer to the target distribution. We show the optimality of this approach for fine-tuning tasks under certain conditions. We demonstrate the efficacy of our methodology across a diverse array of tasks (NLU, NLG, zero-shot) with models up to 2.7B, showing that it consistently surpasses other selection methods. Moreover, our proposed method is significantly faster than existing techniques, scaling to millions of samples within a single GPU hour. Our code is open-sourced (Code repository: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/DV4LLM-D761/ ). While fine-tuning offers significant potential for enhancing performance across diverse tasks, its associated costs often limit its widespread adoption; with this work, we hope to lay the groundwork for cost-effective fine-tuning, making its benefits more accessible.

In this paper, we introduce a novel graph-based method to classify the regions with similar climate in a local area. We refer our proposed method as Graph Partition Based Method (GPBM). Our proposed method attempts to overcome the shortcomings of the current state-of-the-art methods in the literature. It has no limit on the number of variables that can be used and also preserves the nature of climate data. To illustrate the capability of our proposed algorithm, we benchmark its performance with other state-of-the-art climate classification techniques. The climate data is collected from 24 synoptic stations in Fars province in southern Iran. The data includes seven climate variables stored as time series from 1951 to 2017. Our results exhibit that our proposed method performs a more realistic climate classification with less computational time. It can save more information during the climate classification process and is therefore efficient in further data analysis. Furthermore, using our method, we can introduce seasonal graphs to better investigate seasonal climate changes. To the best of our knowledge, our proposed method is the first graph-based climate classification system.

Climate change is negatively impacting the world's biodiversity. To build automated systems to monitor these negative biodiversity impacts, large-scale, volunteer-collected datasets like iNaturalist are built from community-identified, natural imagery. However, such volunteer-based data are opportunistic and lack a structured sampling strategy, resulting in geographic, temporal, observation quality, and socioeconomic, biases that stymie uptake of these models for downstream biodiversity monitoring tasks. Here we introduce DivShift North American West Coast (DivShift-NAWC), a curated dataset of almost 8 million iNaturalist plant images across the western coast of North America, for exploring the effects of these biases on deep learning model performance. We compare model performance across four known biases and observe that they indeed confound model performance. We suggest practical strategies for curating datasets to train deep learning models for monitoring climate change's impacts on the world's biodiversity.

CPU performance prediction, which involves forecasting the performance scores of a CPU based on its hardware characteristics during its operation, is a critical technology for computational system design and resource management in the big data era. However, this research field currently faces two significant challenges. First, collecting real-world data is challenging due to the wide variety of CPU products on the market and the highly specialized nature of relevant hardware characteristics. In the research process, this field lacks a standard dataset with unified hardware characteristics, wide data coverage, and comprehensive benchmarks. Second, existing methods based on hardware simulation models or machine learning exhibit notable shortcomings, such as lengthy simulation test cycles and low prediction accuracy. To bridge these gaps, we first collect, preprocess, and standardize historical data from the 4th Generation Intel Xeon Scalable Processors across multiple benchmark suites to create a new dataset, named PerfCastDB. Subsequently, we design a deep learning based model called Nova CPU Performance Predictor (NCPP) as the baseline for this new dataset. The NCPP network is designed based on group attention mechanism. It effectively quantifies the implicit relationships between hardware characteristics within and across groups and comprehensively models the impact of various hardware characteristics on CPU performance prediction. We conduct comparative experiments using the proposed PerfCastDB dataset. Compared to existing approaches, NCPP achieves superior evaluation results, demonstrating its effectiveness. Furthermore, we have open-sourced part of the dataset and the NCPP network code to facilitate subsequent research. The resources can be accessed at https://github.com/xiaoman-liu/NCPP.

Blocking events are an important cause of extreme weather, especially long-lasting blocking events that trap weather systems in place. The duration of blocking events is, however, underestimated in climate models. Explainable Artificial Intelligence are a class of data analysis methods that can help identify physical causes of prolonged blocking events and diagnose model deficiencies. We demonstrate this approach on an idealized quasigeostrophic model developed by Marshall and Molteni (1993). We train a convolutional neural network (CNN), and subsequently, build a sparse predictive model for the persistence of Atlantic blocking, conditioned on an initial high-pressure anomaly. Shapley Additive ExPlanation (SHAP) analysis reveals that high-pressure anomalies in the American Southeast and North Atlantic, separated by a trough over Atlantic Canada, contribute significantly to prediction of sustained blocking events in the Atlantic region. This agrees with previous work that identified precursors in the same regions via wave train analysis. When we apply the same CNN to blockings in the ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis, there is insufficient data to accurately predict persistent blocks. We partially overcome this limitation by pre-training the CNN on the plentiful data of the Marshall-Molteni model, and then using Transfer Learning to achieve better predictions than direct training. SHAP analysis before and after transfer learning allows a comparison between the predictive features in the reanalysis and the quasigeostrophic model, quantifying dynamical biases in the idealized model. This work demonstrates the potential for machine learning methods to extract meaningful precursors of extreme weather events and achieve better prediction using limited observational data.

Recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) for numerical weather prediction (NWP) have significantly transformed atmospheric modeling. AI NWP models outperform traditional physics-based systems, such as the Integrated Forecast System (IFS), across several global metrics while requiring fewer computational resources. However, existing AI NWP models face limitations related to training datasets and timestep choices, often resulting in artifacts that reduce model performance. To address these challenges, we introduce the Community Research Earth Digital Intelligence Twin (CREDIT) framework, developed at NSF NCAR. CREDIT provides a flexible, scalable, and user-friendly platform for training and deploying AI-based atmospheric models on high-performance computing systems. It offers an end-to-end pipeline for data preprocessing, model training, and evaluation, democratizing access to advanced AI NWP capabilities. We demonstrate CREDIT's potential through WXFormer, a novel deterministic vision transformer designed to predict atmospheric states autoregressively, addressing common AI NWP issues like compounding error growth with techniques such as spectral normalization, padding, and multi-step training. Additionally, to illustrate CREDIT's flexibility and state-of-the-art model comparisons, we train the FUXI architecture within this framework. Our findings show that both FUXI and WXFormer, trained on six-hourly ERA5 hybrid sigma-pressure levels, generally outperform IFS HRES in 10-day forecasts, offering potential improvements in efficiency and forecast accuracy. CREDIT's modular design enables researchers to explore various models, datasets, and training configurations, fostering innovation within the scientific community.

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

State-of-the-art space science missions increasingly rely on automation due to spacecraft complexity and the costs of human oversight. The high volume of data, including scientific and telemetry data, makes manual inspection challenging. Machine learning offers significant potential to meet these demands. The Euclid space telescope, in its survey phase since February 2024, exemplifies this shift. Euclid's success depends on accurate monitoring and interpretation of housekeeping telemetry and science-derived data. Thousands of telemetry parameters, monitored as time series, may or may not impact the quality of scientific data. These parameters have complex interdependencies, often due to physical relationships (e.g., proximity of temperature sensors). Optimising science operations requires careful anomaly detection and identification of hidden parameter states. Moreover, understanding the interactions between known anomalies and physical quantities is crucial yet complex, as related parameters may display anomalies with varied timing and intensity. We address these challenges by analysing temperature anomalies in Euclid's telemetry from February to August 2024, focusing on eleven temperature parameters and 35 covariates. We use a predictive XGBoost model to forecast temperatures based on historical values, detecting anomalies as deviations from predictions. A second XGBoost model predicts anomalies from covariates, capturing their relationships to temperature anomalies. We identify the top three anomalies per parameter and analyse their interactions with covariates using SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations), enabling rapid, automated analysis of complex parameter relationships. Our method demonstrates how machine learning can enhance telemetry monitoring, offering scalable solutions for other missions with similar data challenges.

We propose a semi-automatic staging area for efficiently building an accurate database of experimental physical properties of superconductors from literature, called SuperCon2, to enrich the existing manually-built superconductor database SuperCon. Here we report our curation interface (SuperCon2 Interface) and a workflow managing the state transitions of each examined record, to validate the dataset of superconductors from PDF documents collected using Grobid-superconductors in a previous work. This curation workflow allows both automatic and manual operations, the former contains ``anomaly detection'' that scans new data identifying outliers, and a ``training data collector'' mechanism that collects training data examples based on manual corrections. Such training data collection policy is effective in improving the machine-learning models with a reduced number of examples. For manual operations, the interface (SuperCon2 interface) is developed to increase efficiency during manual correction by providing a smart interface and an enhanced PDF document viewer. We show that our interface significantly improves the curation quality by boosting precision and recall as compared with the traditional ``manual correction''. Our semi-automatic approach would provide a solution for achieving a reliable database with text-data mining of scientific documents.

While data are the primary fuel for machine learning models, they often suffer from missing values, especially when collected in real-world scenarios. However, many off-the-shelf machine learning models, including artificial neural network models, are unable to handle these missing values directly. Therefore, extra data preprocessing and curation steps, such as data imputation, are inevitable before learning and prediction processes. In this study, we propose a simple and intuitive yet effective method for pruning missing values (PROMISSING) during learning and inference steps in neural networks. In this method, there is no need to remove or impute the missing values; instead, the missing values are treated as a new source of information (representing what we do not know). Our experiments on simulated data, several classification and regression benchmarks, and a multi-modal clinical dataset show that PROMISSING results in similar prediction performance compared to various imputation techniques. In addition, our experiments show models trained using PROMISSING techniques are becoming less decisive in their predictions when facing incomplete samples with many unknowns. This finding hopefully advances machine learning models from being pure predicting machines to more realistic thinkers that can also say "I do not know" when facing incomplete sources of information.

State space models (SSM) have recently been shown to be very effective as a deep learning layer as a promising alternative to sequence models such as RNNs, CNNs, or Transformers. The first version to show this potential was the S4 model, which is particularly effective on tasks involving long-range dependencies by using a prescribed state matrix called the HiPPO matrix. While this has an interpretable mathematical mechanism for modeling long dependencies, it introduces a custom representation and algorithm that can be difficult to implement. On the other hand, a recent variant of S4 called DSS showed that restricting the state matrix to be fully diagonal can still preserve the performance of the original model when using a specific initialization based on approximating S4's matrix. This work seeks to systematically understand how to parameterize and initialize such diagonal state space models. While it follows from classical results that almost all SSMs have an equivalent diagonal form, we show that the initialization is critical for performance. We explain why DSS works mathematically, by showing that the diagonal restriction of S4's matrix surprisingly recovers the same kernel in the limit of infinite state dimension. We also systematically describe various design choices in parameterizing and computing diagonal SSMs, and perform a controlled empirical study ablating the effects of these choices. Our final model S4D is a simple diagonal version of S4 whose kernel computation requires just 2 lines of code and performs comparably to S4 in almost all settings, with state-of-the-art results for image, audio, and medical time-series domains, and averaging 85\% on the Long Range Arena benchmark.

Buildings are significant contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for 26% of global energy sector emissions in 2022. Meeting net zero goals requires a rapid reduction in building emissions, both directly from the buildings and indirectly from the production of electricity and heat used in buildings. National energy planning for net zero demands both detailed and comprehensive building energy consumption data. However, geo-located building-level energy data is rarely available in Europe, with analysis typically relying on anonymised, simulated or low-resolution data. To address this problem, we introduce a dataset of Neighbourhood Energy, Buildings, and Urban Landscapes (NEBULA) for modelling domestic energy consumption for small neighbourhoods (5-150 households). NEBULA integrates data on building characteristics, climate, urbanisation, environment, and socio-demographics and contains 609,964 samples across England and Wales.

Most NLP tasks are modeled as supervised learning and thus require labeled training data to train effective models. However, manually producing such data at sufficient quality and quantity is known to be costly and time-intensive. Current research addresses this bottleneck by exploring a novel paradigm called zero-shot learning via dataset generation. Here, a powerful LLM is prompted with a task description to generate labeled data that can be used to train a downstream NLP model. For instance, an LLM might be prompted to "generate 500 movie reviews with positive overall sentiment, and another 500 with negative sentiment." The generated data could then be used to train a binary sentiment classifier, effectively leveraging an LLM as a teacher to a smaller student model. With this demo, we introduce Fabricator, an open-source Python toolkit for dataset generation. Fabricator implements common dataset generation workflows, supports a wide range of downstream NLP tasks (such as text classification, question answering, and entity recognition), and is integrated with well-known libraries to facilitate quick experimentation. With Fabricator, we aim to support researchers in conducting reproducible dataset generation experiments using LLMs and help practitioners apply this approach to train models for downstream tasks.

Zero-shot reinforcement learning (RL) promises to provide agents that can perform any task in an environment after an offline pre-training phase. Forward-backward (FB) representations represent remarkable progress towards this ideal, achieving 85% of the performance of task-specific agents in this setting. However, such performance is contingent on access to large and diverse datasets for pre-training, which cannot be expected for most real problems. Here, we explore how FB performance degrades when trained on small datasets that lack diversity, and mitigate it with conservatism, a well-established feature of performant offline RL algorithms. We evaluate our family of methods across various datasets, domains and tasks, reaching 150% of vanilla FB performance in aggregate. Somewhat surprisingly, conservative FB algorithms also outperform the task-specific baseline, despite lacking access to reward labels and being required to maintain policies for all tasks. Conservative FB algorithms perform no worse than FB on full datasets, and so present little downside over their predecessor. Our code is available open-source via https://enjeeneer.io/projects/conservative-world-models/.

Clustering tabular data remains a significant open challenge in data analysis and machine learning. Unlike for image data, similarity between tabular records often varies across datasets, making the definition of clusters highly dataset-dependent. Furthermore, the absence of supervised signals complicates hyperparameter tuning in deep learning clustering methods, frequently resulting in unstable performance. To address these issues and reduce the need for per-dataset tuning, we adopt an emerging approach in deep learning: zero-shot learning. We propose ZEUS, a self-contained model capable of clustering new datasets without any additional training or fine-tuning. It operates by decomposing complex datasets into meaningful components that can then be clustered effectively. Thanks to pre-training on synthetic datasets generated from a latent-variable prior, it generalizes across various datasets without requiring user intervention. To the best of our knowledge, ZEUS is the first zero-shot method capable of generating embeddings for tabular data in a fully unsupervised manner. Experimental results demonstrate that it performs on par with or better than traditional clustering algorithms and recent deep learning-based methods, while being significantly faster and more user-friendly.

Automated Vehicles (AVs) promise significant advances in transportation. Critical to these improvements is understanding AVs' longitudinal behavior, relying heavily on real-world trajectory data. Existing open-source trajectory datasets of AV, however, often fall short in refinement, reliability, and completeness, hindering effective performance metrics analysis and model development. This study addresses these challenges by creating a Unified Longitudinal TRAjectory dataset for AVs (Ultra-AV) to analyze their microscopic longitudinal driving behaviors. This dataset compiles data from 13 distinct sources, encompassing various AV types, test sites, and experiment scenarios. We established a three-step data processing: 1. extraction of longitudinal trajectory data, 2. general data cleaning, and 3. data-specific cleaning to obtain the longitudinal trajectory data and car-following trajectory data. The validity of the processed data is affirmed through performance evaluations across safety, mobility, stability, and sustainability, along with an analysis of the relationships between variables in car-following models. Our work not only furnishes researchers with standardized data and metrics for longitudinal AV behavior studies but also sets guidelines for data collection and model development.

A data-driven model (DDM) suitable for regional weather forecasting applications is presented. The model extends the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System by introducing a stretched-grid architecture that dedicates higher resolution over a regional area of interest and maintains a lower resolution elsewhere on the globe. The model is based on graph neural networks, which naturally affords arbitrary multi-resolution grid configurations. The model is applied to short-range weather prediction for the Nordics, producing forecasts at 2.5 km spatial and 6 h temporal resolution. The model is pre-trained on 43 years of global ERA5 data at 31 km resolution and is further refined using 3.3 years of 2.5 km resolution operational analyses from the MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS). The performance of the model is evaluated using surface observations from measurement stations across Norway and is compared to short-range weather forecasts from MEPS. The DDM outperforms both the control run and the ensemble mean of MEPS for 2 m temperature. The model also produces competitive precipitation and wind speed forecasts, but is shown to underestimate extreme events.

We analyze the growth of dataset sizes used in machine learning for natural language processing and computer vision, and extrapolate these using two methods; using the historical growth rate and estimating the compute-optimal dataset size for future predicted compute budgets. We investigate the growth in data usage by estimating the total stock of unlabeled data available on the internet over the coming decades. Our analysis indicates that the stock of high-quality language data will be exhausted soon; likely before 2026. By contrast, the stock of low-quality language data and image data will be exhausted only much later; between 2030 and 2050 (for low-quality language) and between 2030 and 2060 (for images). Our work suggests that the current trend of ever-growing ML models that rely on enormous datasets might slow down if data efficiency is not drastically improved or new sources of data become available.

IceCloudNet is a novel method based on machine learning able to predict high-quality vertically resolved cloud ice water contents (IWC) and ice crystal number concentrations (N_ice). The predictions come at the spatio-temporal coverage and resolution of geostationary satellite observations (SEVIRI) and the vertical resolution of active satellite retrievals (DARDAR). IceCloudNet consists of a ConvNeXt-based U-Net and a 3D PatchGAN discriminator model and is trained by predicting DARDAR profiles from co-located SEVIRI images. Despite the sparse availability of DARDAR data due to its narrow overpass, IceCloudNet is able to predict cloud occurrence, spatial structure, and microphysical properties with high precision. The model has been applied to ten years of SEVIRI data, producing a dataset of vertically resolved IWC and N_ice of clouds containing ice with a 3 kmx3 kmx240 mx15 minute resolution in a spatial domain of 30{\deg}W to 30{\deg}E and 30{\deg}S to 30{\deg}N. The produced dataset increases the availability of vertical cloud profiles, for the period when DARDAR is available, by more than six orders of magnitude and moreover, IceCloudNet is able to produce vertical cloud profiles beyond the lifetime of the recently ended satellite missions underlying DARDAR.

We introduce CLIMATE-FEVER, a new publicly available dataset for verification of climate change-related claims. By providing a dataset for the research community, we aim to facilitate and encourage work on improving algorithms for retrieving evidential support for climate-specific claims, addressing the underlying language understanding challenges, and ultimately help alleviate the impact of misinformation on climate change. We adapt the methodology of FEVER [1], the largest dataset of artificially designed claims, to real-life claims collected from the Internet. While during this process, we could rely on the expertise of renowned climate scientists, it turned out to be no easy task. We discuss the surprising, subtle complexity of modeling real-world climate-related claims within the fever framework, which we believe provides a valuable challenge for general natural language understanding. We hope that our work will mark the beginning of a new exciting long-term joint effort by the climate science and AI community.

Large-scale data sets on scholarly publications are the basis for a variety of bibliometric analyses and natural language processing (NLP) applications. Especially data sets derived from publication's full-text have recently gained attention. While several such data sets already exist, we see key shortcomings in terms of their domain and time coverage, citation network completeness, and representation of full-text content. To address these points, we propose a new version of the data set unarXive. We base our data processing pipeline and output format on two existing data sets, and improve on each of them. Our resulting data set comprises 1.9 M publications spanning multiple disciplines and 32 years. It furthermore has a more complete citation network than its predecessors and retains a richer representation of document structure as well as non-textual publication content such as mathematical notation. In addition to the data set, we provide ready-to-use training/test data for citation recommendation and IMRaD classification. All data and source code is publicly available at https://github.com/IllDepence/unarXive.

The advent of Industry 4.0 has precipitated the incorporation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods within industrial contexts, aiming to realize intelligent manufacturing, operation as well as maintenance, also known as industrial intelligence. However, intricate industrial milieus, particularly those relating to energy exploration and production, frequently encompass data characterized by long-tailed class distribution, sample imbalance, and domain shift. These attributes pose noteworthy challenges to data-centric Deep Learning (DL) techniques, crucial for the realization of industrial intelligence. The present study centers on the intricate and distinctive industrial scenarios of Nuclear Power Generation (NPG), meticulously scrutinizing the application of DL techniques under the constraints of finite data samples. Initially, the paper expounds on potential employment scenarios for AI across the full life-cycle of NPG. Subsequently, we delve into an evaluative exposition of DL's advancement, grounded in the finite sample perspective. This encompasses aspects such as small-sample learning, few-shot learning, zero-shot learning, and open-set recognition, also referring to the unique data characteristics of NPG. The paper then proceeds to present two specific case studies. The first revolves around the automatic recognition of zirconium alloy metallography, while the second pertains to open-set recognition for signal diagnosis of machinery sensors. These cases, spanning the entirety of NPG's life-cycle, are accompanied by constructive outcomes and insightful deliberations. By exploring and applying DL methodologies within the constraints of finite sample availability, this paper not only furnishes a robust technical foundation but also introduces a fresh perspective toward the secure and efficient advancement and exploitation of this advanced energy source.

Recent breakthroughs in artificial intelligence offer tremendous promise for the development of self-driving applications. Deep Neural Networks, in particular, are being utilized to support the operation of semi-autonomous cars through object identification and semantic segmentation. To assess the inadequacy of the current dataset in the context of autonomous and semi-autonomous cars, we created a new dataset named ANNA. This study discusses a custom-built dataset that includes some unidentified vehicles in the perspective of Bangladesh, which are not included in the existing dataset. A dataset validity check was performed by evaluating models using the Intersection Over Union (IOU) metric. The results demonstrated that the model trained on our custom dataset was more precise and efficient than the models trained on the KITTI or COCO dataset concerning Bangladeshi traffic. The research presented in this paper also emphasizes the importance of developing accurate and efficient object detection algorithms for the advancement of autonomous vehicles.

Clouds play a significant role in global temperature regulation through their effect on planetary albedo. Anthropogenic emissions of aerosols can alter the albedo of clouds, but the extent of this effect, and its consequent impact on temperature change, remains uncertain. Human-induced clouds caused by ship aerosol emissions, commonly referred to as ship tracks, provide visible manifestations of this effect distinct from adjacent cloud regions and therefore serve as a useful sandbox to study human-induced clouds. However, the lack of large-scale ship track data makes it difficult to deduce their general effects on cloud formation. Towards developing automated approaches to localize ship tracks at scale, we present CloudTracks, a dataset containing 3,560 satellite images labeled with more than 12,000 ship track instance annotations. We train semantic segmentation and instance segmentation model baselines on our dataset and find that our best model substantially outperforms previous state-of-the-art for ship track localization (61.29 vs. 48.65 IoU). We also find that the best instance segmentation model is able to identify the number of ship tracks in each image more accurately than the previous state-of-the-art (1.64 vs. 4.99 MAE). However, we identify cases where the best model struggles to accurately localize and count ship tracks, so we believe CloudTracks will stimulate novel machine learning approaches to better detect elongated and overlapping features in satellite images. We release our dataset openly at {zenodo.org/records/10042922}.

Reasoning from sequences of raw sensory data is a ubiquitous problem across fields ranging from medical devices to robotics. These problems often involve using long sequences of raw sensor data (e.g. magnetometers, piezoresistors) to predict sequences of desirable physical quantities (e.g. force, inertial measurements). While classical approaches are powerful for locally-linear prediction problems, they often fall short when using real-world sensors. These sensors are typically non-linear, are affected by extraneous variables (e.g. vibration), and exhibit data-dependent drift. For many problems, the prediction task is exacerbated by small labeled datasets since obtaining ground-truth labels requires expensive equipment. In this work, we present Hierarchical State-Space Models (HiSS), a conceptually simple, new technique for continuous sequential prediction. HiSS stacks structured state-space models on top of each other to create a temporal hierarchy. Across six real-world sensor datasets, from tactile-based state prediction to accelerometer-based inertial measurement, HiSS outperforms state-of-the-art sequence models such as causal Transformers, LSTMs, S4, and Mamba by at least 23% on MSE. Our experiments further indicate that HiSS demonstrates efficient scaling to smaller datasets and is compatible with existing data-filtering techniques. Code, datasets and videos can be found on https://hiss-csp.github.io.

Time series forecasting has attracted significant attention in recent decades. Previous studies have demonstrated that the Channel-Independent (CI) strategy improves forecasting performance by treating different channels individually, while it leads to poor generalization on unseen instances and ignores potentially necessary interactions between channels. Conversely, the Channel-Dependent (CD) strategy mixes all channels with even irrelevant and indiscriminate information, which, however, results in oversmoothing issues and limits forecasting accuracy. There is a lack of channel strategy that effectively balances individual channel treatment for improved forecasting performance without overlooking essential interactions between channels. Motivated by our observation of a correlation between the time series model's performance boost against channel mixing and the intrinsic similarity on a pair of channels, we developed a novel and adaptable Channel Clustering Module (CCM). CCM dynamically groups channels characterized by intrinsic similarities and leverages cluster information instead of individual channel identities, combining the best of CD and CI worlds. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that CCM can (1) boost the performance of CI and CD models by an average margin of 2.4% and 7.2% on long-term and short-term forecasting, respectively; (2) enable zero-shot forecasting with mainstream time series forecasting models; (3) uncover intrinsic time series patterns among channels and improve interpretability of complex time series models.

Training and evaluating language models increasingly requires the construction of meta-datasets --diverse collections of curated data with clear provenance. Natural language prompting has recently lead to improved zero-shot generalization by transforming existing, supervised datasets into a diversity of novel pretraining tasks, highlighting the benefits of meta-dataset curation. While successful in general-domain text, translating these data-centric approaches to biomedical language modeling remains challenging, as labeled biomedical datasets are significantly underrepresented in popular data hubs. To address this challenge, we introduce BigBIO a community library of 126+ biomedical NLP datasets, currently covering 12 task categories and 10+ languages. BigBIO facilitates reproducible meta-dataset curation via programmatic access to datasets and their metadata, and is compatible with current platforms for prompt engineering and end-to-end few/zero shot language model evaluation. We discuss our process for task schema harmonization, data auditing, contribution guidelines, and outline two illustrative use cases: zero-shot evaluation of biomedical prompts and large-scale, multi-task learning. BigBIO is an ongoing community effort and is available at https://github.com/bigscience-workshop/biomedical

We present the Wildland-fire Infrared Thermal (WIT-UAS) dataset for long-wave infrared sensing of crew and vehicle assets amidst prescribed wildland fire environments. While such a dataset is crucial for safety monitoring in wildland fire applications, to the authors' awareness, no such dataset focusing on assets near fire is publicly available. Presumably, this is due to the barrier to entry of collaborating with fire management personnel. We present two related data subsets: WIT-UAS-ROS consists of full ROS bag files containing sensor and robot data of UAS flight over the fire, and WIT-UAS-Image contains hand-labeled long-wave infrared (LWIR) images extracted from WIT-UAS-ROS. Our dataset is the first to focus on asset detection in a wildland fire environment. We show that thermal detection models trained without fire data frequently detect false positives by classifying fire as people. By adding our dataset to training, we show that the false positive rate is reduced significantly. Yet asset detection in wildland fire environments is still significantly more challenging than detection in urban environments, due to dense obscuring trees, greater heat variation, and overbearing thermal signal of the fire. We publicize this dataset to encourage the community to study more advanced models to tackle this challenging environment. The dataset, code and pretrained models are available at https://github.com/castacks/WIT-UAS-Dataset.

Analyzing large datasets requires responsive query execution, but executing SQL queries on massive datasets can be slow. This paper explores whether query execution can begin even before the user has finished typing, allowing results to appear almost instantly. We propose SpeQL, a system that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to predict likely queries based on the database schema, the user's past queries, and their incomplete query. Since exact query prediction is infeasible, SpeQL speculates on partial queries in two ways: 1) it predicts the query structure to compile and plan queries in advance, and 2) it precomputes smaller temporary tables that are much smaller than the original database, but are still predicted to contain all information necessary to answer the user's final query. Additionally, SpeQL continuously displays results for speculated queries and subqueries in real time, aiding exploratory analysis. A utility/user study showed that SpeQL improved task completion time, and participants reported that its speculative display of results helped them discover patterns in the data more quickly. In the study, SpeQL improves user's query latency by up to 289times and kept the overhead reasonable, at 4$ per hour.

Clustering is a NP-hard problem. Thus, no optimal algorithm exists, heuristics are applied to cluster the data. Heuristics can be very resource-intensive, if not applied properly. For substantially large data sets computational efficiencies can be achieved by reducing the input space if a minimal loss of information can be achieved. Clustering algorithms, in general, face two common problems: 1) these converge to different settings with different initial conditions and; 2) the number of clusters has to be arbitrarily decided beforehand. This problem has become critical in the realm of big data. Recently, clustering algorithms have emerged which can speedup computations using parallel processing over the grid but face the aforementioned problems. Goals: Our goals are to find methods to cluster data which: 1) guarantee convergence to the same settings irrespective of the initial conditions; 2) eliminate the need to establish the number of clusters beforehand, and 3) can be applied to cluster large datasets. Methods: We introduce a method that combines probabilistic and combinatorial clustering methods to produce repeatable and compact clusters that are not sensitive to initial conditions. This method harnesses the power of k-means (a combinatorial clustering method) to cluster/partition very large dimensional datasets and uses the Gaussian Mixture Model (a probabilistic clustering method) to validate the k-means partitions. Results: We show that this method produces very compact clusters that are not sensitive to initial conditions. This method can be used to identify the most 'separable' set in a dataset which increases the 'clusterability' of a dataset. This method also eliminates the need to specify the number of clusters in advance.

We investigate the use of randomly generated data for the sake of pre-training a model. We justify this approach theoretically from the perspective of algorithmic complexity, building on recent research that shows that sequence models can be trained to approximate Solomonoff induction. We derive similar, but complementary theoretical results. We show empirically that synthetically generated data can be used to pre-train a model before the data is seen. We replicate earlier results that models trained this way show zero-shot in-context learning across a variety of datasets, and that this performance improves with scale. We extend earlier results to real-world data, and show that finetuning a model after pre-training offers faster convergence and better generalization.

We assessed the performance of commercial Large Language Models (LLMs) GPT-3.5-Turbo and GPT-4 on tasks from the 2023 BioASQ challenge. In Task 11b Phase B, which is focused on answer generation, both models demonstrated competitive abilities with leading systems. Remarkably, they achieved this with simple zero-shot learning, grounded with relevant snippets. Even without relevant snippets, their performance was decent, though not on par with the best systems. Interestingly, the older and cheaper GPT-3.5-Turbo system was able to compete with GPT-4 in the grounded Q&A setting on factoid and list answers. In Task 11b Phase A, focusing on retrieval, query expansion through zero-shot learning improved performance, but the models fell short compared to other systems. The code needed to rerun these experiments is available through GitHub.

Recent progress in neural forecasting accelerated improvements in the performance of large-scale forecasting systems. Yet, long-horizon forecasting remains a very difficult task. Two common challenges afflicting the task are the volatility of the predictions and their computational complexity. We introduce N-HiTS, a model which addresses both challenges by incorporating novel hierarchical interpolation and multi-rate data sampling techniques. These techniques enable the proposed method to assemble its predictions sequentially, emphasizing components with different frequencies and scales while decomposing the input signal and synthesizing the forecast. We prove that the hierarchical interpolation technique can efficiently approximate arbitrarily long horizons in the presence of smoothness. Additionally, we conduct extensive large-scale dataset experiments from the long-horizon forecasting literature, demonstrating the advantages of our method over the state-of-the-art methods, where N-HiTS provides an average accuracy improvement of almost 20% over the latest Transformer architectures while reducing the computation time by an order of magnitude (50 times). Our code is available at bit.ly/3VA5DoT

Recently, Offline Reinforcement Learning (RL) has achieved remarkable progress with the emergence of various algorithms and datasets. However, these methods usually focus on algorithmic advancements, ignoring that many low-level implementation choices considerably influence or even drive the final performance. As a result, it becomes hard to attribute the progress in Offline RL as these choices are not sufficiently discussed and aligned in the literature. In addition, papers focusing on a dataset (e.g., D4RL) often ignore algorithms proposed on another dataset (e.g., RL Unplugged), causing isolation among the algorithms, which might slow down the overall progress. Therefore, this work aims to bridge the gaps caused by low-level choices and datasets. To this end, we empirically investigate 20 implementation choices using three representative algorithms (i.e., CQL, CRR, and IQL) and present a guidebook for choosing implementations. Following the guidebook, we find two variants CRR+ and CQL+ , achieving new state-of-the-art on D4RL. Moreover, we benchmark eight popular offline RL algorithms across datasets under unified training and evaluation framework. The findings are inspiring: the success of a learning paradigm severely depends on the data distribution, and some previous conclusions are biased by the dataset used. Our code is available at https://github.com/sail-sg/offbench.

Time series research has gathered lots of interests in the last decade, especially for Time Series Classification (TSC) and Time Series Forecasting (TSF). Research in TSC has greatly benefited from the University of California Riverside and University of East Anglia (UCR/UEA) Time Series Archives. On the other hand, the advancement in Time Series Forecasting relies on time series forecasting competitions such as the Makridakis competitions, NN3 and NN5 Neural Network competitions, and a few Kaggle competitions. Each year, thousands of papers proposing new algorithms for TSC and TSF have utilized these benchmarking archives. These algorithms are designed for these specific problems, but may not be useful for tasks such as predicting the heart rate of a person using photoplethysmogram (PPG) and accelerometer data. We refer to this problem as Time Series Extrinsic Regression (TSER), where we are interested in a more general methodology of predicting a single continuous value, from univariate or multivariate time series. This prediction can be from the same time series or not directly related to the predictor time series and does not necessarily need to be a future value or depend heavily on recent values. To the best of our knowledge, research into TSER has received much less attention in the time series research community and there are no models developed for general time series extrinsic regression problems. Most models are developed for a specific problem. Therefore, we aim to motivate and support the research into TSER by introducing the first TSER benchmarking archive. This archive contains 19 datasets from different domains, with varying number of dimensions, unequal length dimensions, and missing values. In this paper, we introduce the datasets in this archive and did an initial benchmark on existing models.

The oceans are a source of an impressive mixture of complex data that could be used to uncover relationships yet to be discovered. Such data comes from the oceans and their surface, such as Automatic Identification System (AIS) messages used for tracking vessels' trajectories. AIS messages are transmitted over radio or satellite at ideally periodic time intervals but vary irregularly over time. As such, this paper aims to model the AIS message transmission behavior through neural networks for forecasting upcoming AIS messages' content from multiple vessels, particularly in a simultaneous approach despite messages' temporal irregularities as outliers. We present a set of experiments comprising multiple algorithms for forecasting tasks with horizon sizes of varying lengths. Deep learning models (e.g., neural networks) revealed themselves to adequately preserve vessels' spatial awareness regardless of temporal irregularity. We show how convolutional layers, feed-forward networks, and recurrent neural networks can improve such tasks by working together. Experimenting with short, medium, and large-sized sequences of messages, our model achieved 36/37/38% of the Relative Percentage Difference - the lower, the better, whereas we observed 92/45/96% on the Elman's RNN, 51/52/40% on the GRU, and 129/98/61% on the LSTM. These results support our model as a driver for improving the prediction of vessel routes when analyzing multiple vessels of diverging types simultaneously under temporally noise data.

In-context learning, the ability of large language models to perform tasks using only examples provided in the prompt, has recently been adapted for time series forecasting. This paradigm enables zero-shot prediction, where past values serve as context for forecasting future values, making powerful forecasting tools accessible to non-experts and increasing the performance when training data are scarce. Most existing zero-shot forecasting approaches rely on transformer architectures, which, despite their success in language, often fall short of expectations in time series forecasting, where recurrent models like LSTMs frequently have the edge. Conversely, while LSTMs are well-suited for time series modeling due to their state-tracking capabilities, they lack strong in-context learning abilities. We introduce TiRex that closes this gap by leveraging xLSTM, an enhanced LSTM with competitive in-context learning skills. Unlike transformers, state-space models, or parallelizable RNNs such as RWKV, TiRex retains state-tracking, a critical property for long-horizon forecasting. To further facilitate its state-tracking ability, we propose a training-time masking strategy called CPM. TiRex sets a new state of the art in zero-shot time series forecasting on the HuggingFace benchmarks GiftEval and Chronos-ZS, outperforming significantly larger models including TabPFN-TS (Prior Labs), Chronos Bolt (Amazon), TimesFM (Google), and Moirai (Salesforce) across both short- and long-term forecasts.

Industrial Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) is limited by the scarcity of high-quality datasets and the complex variability of industrial energy consumption patterns. To address data scarcity and privacy issues, we introduce the Synthetic Industrial Dataset for Energy Disaggregation (SIDED), an open-source dataset generated using Digital Twin simulations. SIDED includes three types of industrial facilities across three different geographic locations, capturing diverse appliance behaviors, weather conditions, and load profiles. We also propose the Appliance-Modulated Data Augmentation (AMDA) method, a computationally efficient technique that enhances NILM model generalization by intelligently scaling appliance power contributions based on their relative impact. We show in experiments that NILM models trained with AMDA-augmented data significantly improve the disaggregation of energy consumption of complex industrial appliances like combined heat and power systems. Specifically, in our out-of-sample scenarios, models trained with AMDA achieved a Normalized Disaggregation Error of 0.093, outperforming models trained without data augmentation (0.451) and those trained with random data augmentation (0.290). Data distribution analyses confirm that AMDA effectively aligns training and test data distributions, enhancing model generalization.

Conversational NLU providers often need to scale to thousands of intent-classification models where new customers often face the cold-start problem. Scaling to so many customers puts a constraint on storage space as well. In this paper, we explore four different zero and few-shot intent classification approaches with this low-resource constraint: 1) domain adaptation, 2) data augmentation, 3) zero-shot intent classification using descriptions large language models (LLMs), and 4) parameter-efficient fine-tuning of instruction-finetuned language models. Our results show that all these approaches are effective to different degrees in low-resource settings. Parameter-efficient fine-tuning using T-few recipe (Liu et al., 2022) on Flan-T5 (Chang et al., 2022) yields the best performance even with just one sample per intent. We also show that the zero-shot method of prompting LLMs using intent descriptions

Large language models are well-known to be effective at few-shot in-context learning (ICL). Recent advancements in multimodal foundation models have enabled unprecedentedly long context windows, presenting an opportunity to explore their capability to perform ICL with many more demonstrating examples. In this work, we evaluate the performance of multimodal foundation models scaling from few-shot to many-shot ICL. We benchmark GPT-4o and Gemini 1.5 Pro across 10 datasets spanning multiple domains (natural imagery, medical imagery, remote sensing, and molecular imagery) and tasks (multi-class, multi-label, and fine-grained classification). We observe that many-shot ICL, including up to almost 2,000 multimodal demonstrating examples, leads to substantial improvements compared to few-shot (<100 examples) ICL across all of the datasets. Further, Gemini 1.5 Pro performance continues to improve log-linearly up to the maximum number of tested examples on many datasets. Given the high inference costs associated with the long prompts required for many-shot ICL, we also explore the impact of batching multiple queries in a single API call. We show that batching up to 50 queries can lead to performance improvements under zero-shot and many-shot ICL, with substantial gains in the zero-shot setting on multiple datasets, while drastically reducing per-query cost and latency. Finally, we measure ICL data efficiency of the models, or the rate at which the models learn from more demonstrating examples. We find that while GPT-4o and Gemini 1.5 Pro achieve similar zero-shot performance across the datasets, Gemini 1.5 Pro exhibits higher ICL data efficiency than GPT-4o on most datasets. Our results suggest that many-shot ICL could enable users to efficiently adapt multimodal foundation models to new applications and domains. Our codebase is publicly available at https://github.com/stanfordmlgroup/ManyICL .

We present Visuelle 2.0, the first dataset useful for facing diverse prediction problems that a fast-fashion company has to manage routinely. Furthermore, we demonstrate how the use of computer vision is substantial in this scenario. Visuelle 2.0 contains data for 6 seasons / 5355 clothing products of Nuna Lie, a famous Italian company with hundreds of shops located in different areas within the country. In particular, we focus on a specific prediction problem, namely short-observation new product sale forecasting (SO-fore). SO-fore assumes that the season has started and a set of new products is on the shelves of the different stores. The goal is to forecast the sales for a particular horizon, given a short, available past (few weeks), since no earlier statistics are available. To be successful, SO-fore approaches should capture this short past and exploit other modalities or exogenous data. To these aims, Visuelle 2.0 is equipped with disaggregated data at the item-shop level and multi-modal information for each clothing item, allowing computer vision approaches to come into play. The main message that we deliver is that the use of image data with deep networks boosts performances obtained when using the time series in long-term forecasting scenarios, ameliorating the WAPE and MAE by up to 5.48% and 7% respectively compared to competitive baseline methods. The dataset is available at https://humaticslab.github.io/forecasting/visuelle

Data profiling is an essential process in modern data-driven industries. One of its critical components is the discovery and validation of complex statistics, including functional dependencies, data constraints, association rules, and others. However, most existing data profiling systems that focus on complex statistics do not provide proper integration with the tools used by contemporary data scientists. This creates a significant barrier to the adoption of these tools in the industry. Moreover, existing systems were not created with industrial-grade workloads in mind. Finally, they do not aim to provide descriptive explanations, i.e. why a given pattern is not found. It is a significant issue as it is essential to understand the underlying reasons for a specific pattern's absence to make informed decisions based on the data. Because of that, these patterns are effectively rest in thin air: their application scope is rather limited, they are rarely used by the broader public. At the same time, as we are going to demonstrate in this presentation, complex statistics can be efficiently used to solve many classic data quality problems. Desbordante is an open-source data profiler that aims to close this gap. It is built with emphasis on industrial application: it is efficient, scalable, resilient to crashes, and provides explanations. Furthermore, it provides seamless Python integration by offloading various costly operations to the C++ core, not only mining. In this demonstration, we show several scenarios that allow end users to solve different data quality problems. Namely, we showcase typo detection, data deduplication, and data anomaly detection scenarios.

Recent advances in AI weather forecasting have led to the emergence of so-called "foundation models", typically defined by expensive pretraining and minimal fine-tuning for downstream tasks. However, in the natural sciences, a desirable foundation model should also encode meaningful statistical relationships between the underlying physical variables. This study evaluates the performance of the state-of-the-art Aurora foundation model in predicting hydrological variables, which were not considered during pretraining. We introduce a lightweight approach using shallow decoders trained on the latent representations of the pretrained model to predict these new variables. As a baseline, we compare this to fine-tuning the full model, which allows further optimization of the latent space while incorporating new variables into both inputs and outputs. The decoder-based approach requires 50% less training time and 35% less memory, while achieving strong accuracy across various hydrological variables and preserving desirable properties of the foundation model, such as autoregressive stability. Notably, decoder accuracy depends on the physical correlation between the new variables and those used during pretraining, indicating that Aurora's latent space captures meaningful physical relationships. In this sense, we argue that an important quality metric for foundation models in Earth sciences is their ability to be extended to new variables without a full fine-tuning. This provides a new perspective for making foundation models more accessible to communities with limited computational resources, while supporting broader adoption in Earth sciences.

Weather forecasting traditionally relies on numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems that integrates global observational systems, data assimilation (DA), and forecasting models. Despite steady improvements in forecast accuracy over recent decades, further advances are increasingly constrained by high computational costs, the underutilization of vast observational datasets, and the challenges of obtaining finer resolution. These limitations, alongside the uneven distribution of observational networks, result in global disparities in forecast accuracy, leaving some regions vulnerable to extreme weather. Recent advances in machine learning present a promising alternative, providing more efficient and accurate forecasts using the same initial conditions as NWP. However, current machine learning models still depend on the initial conditions generated by NWP systems, which require extensive computational resources and expertise. Here we introduce FuXi Weather, a machine learning weather forecasting system that assimilates data from multiple satellites. Operating on a 6-hourly DA and forecast cycle, FuXi Weather generates reliable and accurate 10-day global weather forecasts at a spatial resolution of 0.25^circ. FuXi Weather is the first system to achieve all-grid, all-surface, all-channel, and all-sky DA and forecasting, extending skillful forecast lead times beyond those of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) high-resolution forecasts (HRES) while using significantly fewer observations. FuXi Weather consistently outperforms ECMWF HRES in observation-sparse regions, such as central Africa, demonstrating its potential to improve forecasts where observational infrastructure is limited.

AI computing and data centers consume a large amount of freshwater, both directly for cooling and indirectly for electricity generation. While most attention has been paid to developed countries such as the U.S., this paper presents the first-of-its-kind dataset that combines nation-level weather and electricity generation data to estimate water usage efficiency for data centers in 41 African countries across five different climate regions. We also use our dataset to evaluate and estimate the water consumption of inference on two large language models (i.e., Llama-3-70B and GPT-4) in 11 selected African countries. Our findings show that writing a 10-page report using Llama-3-70B could consume about 0.7 liters of water, while the water consumption by GPT-4 for the same task may go up to about 60 liters. For writing a medium-length email of 120-200 words, Llama-3-70B and GPT-4 could consume about 0.13 liters and 3 liters of water, respectively. Interestingly, given the same AI model, 8 out of the 11 selected African countries consume less water than the global average, mainly because of lower water intensities for electricity generation. However, water consumption can be substantially higher in some African countries with a steppe climate than the U.S. and global averages, prompting more attention when deploying AI computing in these countries. Our dataset is publicly available on https://huggingface.co/datasets/masterlion/WaterEfficientDatasetForAfricanCountries/tree/main{Hugging Face}.

The UCR Time Series Archive - introduced in 2002, has become an important resource in the time series data mining community, with at least one thousand published papers making use of at least one data set from the archive. The original incarnation of the archive had sixteen data sets but since that time, it has gone through periodic expansions. The last expansion took place in the summer of 2015 when the archive grew from 45 to 85 data sets. This paper introduces and will focus on the new data expansion from 85 to 128 data sets. Beyond expanding this valuable resource, this paper offers pragmatic advice to anyone who may wish to evaluate a new algorithm on the archive. Finally, this paper makes a novel and yet actionable claim: of the hundreds of papers that show an improvement over the standard baseline (1-nearest neighbor classification), a large fraction may be mis-attributing the reasons for their improvement. Moreover, they may have been able to achieve the same improvement with a much simpler modification, requiring just a single line of code.

Data is a crucial component of machine learning. The field is reliant on data to train, validate, and test models. With increased technical capabilities, machine learning research has boomed in both academic and industry settings, and one major focus has been on computer vision. Computer vision is a popular domain of machine learning increasingly pertinent to real-world applications, from facial recognition in policing to object detection for autonomous vehicles. Given computer vision's propensity to shape machine learning research and impact human life, we seek to understand disciplinary practices around dataset documentation - how data is collected, curated, annotated, and packaged into datasets for computer vision researchers and practitioners to use for model tuning and development. Specifically, we examine what dataset documentation communicates about the underlying values of vision data and the larger practices and goals of computer vision as a field. To conduct this study, we collected a corpus of about 500 computer vision datasets, from which we sampled 114 dataset publications across different vision tasks. Through both a structured and thematic content analysis, we document a number of values around accepted data practices, what makes desirable data, and the treatment of humans in the dataset construction process. We discuss how computer vision datasets authors value efficiency at the expense of care; universality at the expense of contextuality; impartiality at the expense of positionality; and model work at the expense of data work. Many of the silenced values we identify sit in opposition with social computing practices. We conclude with suggestions on how to better incorporate silenced values into the dataset creation and curation process.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) aims to learn an optimal policy from pre-collected data. However, it faces challenges of distributional shift, where the learned policy may encounter unseen scenarios not covered in the offline data. Additionally, numerous applications suffer from a scarcity of labeled reward data. Relying on labeled data alone often leads to a narrow state-action distribution, further amplifying the distributional shift, and resulting in suboptimal policy learning. To address these issues, we first recognize that the volume of unlabeled data is typically substantially larger than that of labeled data. We then propose a semi-pessimistic RL method to effectively leverage abundant unlabeled data. Our approach offers several advantages. It considerably simplifies the learning process, as it seeks a lower bound of the reward function, rather than that of the Q-function or state transition function. It is highly flexible, and can be integrated with a range of model-free and model-based RL algorithms. It enjoys the guaranteed improvement when utilizing vast unlabeled data, but requires much less restrictive conditions. We compare our method with a number of alternative solutions, both analytically and numerically, and demonstrate its clear competitiveness. We further illustrate with an application to adaptive deep brain stimulation for Parkinson's disease.

Creating programs to correctly manipulate data is a difficult task, as the underlying programming languages and APIs can be challenging to learn for many users who are not skilled programmers. Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable potential for generating code from natural language, but in the data manipulation domain, apart from the natural language (NL) description of the intended task, we also have the dataset on which the task is to be performed, or the "data context". Existing approaches have utilized data context in a limited way by simply adding relevant information from the input data into the prompts sent to the LLM. In this work, we utilize the available input data to execute the candidate programs generated by the LLMs and gather their outputs. We introduce semantic reranking, a technique to rerank the programs generated by LLMs based on three signals coming the program outputs: (a) semantic filtering and well-formedness based score tuning: do programs even generate well-formed outputs, (b) semantic interleaving: how do the outputs from different candidates compare to each other, and (c) output-based score tuning: how do the outputs compare to outputs predicted for the same task. We provide theoretical justification for semantic interleaving. We also introduce temperature mixing, where we combine samples generated by LLMs using both high and low temperatures. We extensively evaluate our approach in three domains, namely databases (SQL), data science (Pandas) and business intelligence (Excel's Power Query M) on a variety of new and existing benchmarks. We observe substantial gains across domains, with improvements of up to 45% in top-1 accuracy and 34% in top-3 accuracy.

Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of early warning indicators such as rising variance or increased return times. Despite widespread appreciation of the difficulties and uncertainty involved in such forecasts, proposed methods hardly ever characterize their expected error rates. Without the benefits of replicates, controls, or hindsight, applications of these approaches must quantify how reliable different indicators are in avoiding false alarms, and how sensitive they are to missing subtle warning signs. We propose a model based approach in order to quantify this trade-off between reliability and sensitivity and allow comparisons between different indicators. We show these error rates can be quite severe for common indicators even under favorable assumptions, and also illustrate how a model-based indicator can improve this performance. We demonstrate how the performance of an early warning indicator varies in different data sets, and suggest that uncertainty quantification become a more central part of early warning predictions.

This research delves into the construction and utilization of synthetic datasets, specifically within the telematics sphere, leveraging OpenAI's powerful language model, ChatGPT. Synthetic datasets present an effective solution to challenges pertaining to data privacy, scarcity, and control over variables - characteristics that make them particularly valuable for research pursuits. The utility of these datasets, however, largely depends on their quality, measured through the lenses of diversity, relevance, and coherence. To illustrate this data creation process, a hands-on case study is conducted, focusing on the generation of a synthetic telematics dataset. The experiment involved an iterative guidance of ChatGPT, progressively refining prompts and culminating in the creation of a comprehensive dataset for a hypothetical urban planning scenario in Columbus, Ohio. Upon generation, the synthetic dataset was subjected to an evaluation, focusing on the previously identified quality parameters and employing descriptive statistics and visualization techniques for a thorough analysis. Despite synthetic datasets not serving as perfect replacements for actual world data, their potential in specific use-cases, when executed with precision, is significant. This research underscores the potential of AI models like ChatGPT in enhancing data availability for complex sectors like telematics, thus paving the way for a myriad of new research opportunities.

Currently, there is limited research investigating the phenomenon of research data repositories being shut down, and the impact this has on the long-term availability of data. This paper takes an infrastructure perspective on the preservation of research data by using a registry to identify 191 research data repositories that have been closed and presenting information on the shutdown process. The results show that 6.2 % of research data repositories indexed in the registry were shut down. The risks resulting in repository shutdown are varied. The median age of a repository when shutting down is 12 years. Strategies to prevent data loss at the infrastructure level are pursued to varying extent. 44 % of the repositories in the sample migrated data to another repository, and 12 % maintain limited access to their data collection. However, both strategies are not permanent solutions. Finally, the general lack of information on repository shutdown events as well as the effect on the findability of data and the permanence of the scholarly record are discussed.

The topic of Climate Change (CC) has received limited attention in NLP despite its real world urgency. Activists and policy-makers need NLP tools in order to effectively process the vast and rapidly growing textual data produced on CC. Their utility, however, primarily depends on whether the current state-of-the-art models can generalize across various tasks in the CC domain. In order to address this gap, we introduce Climate Change Benchmark (ClimaBench), a benchmark collection of existing disparate datasets for evaluating model performance across a diverse set of CC NLU tasks systematically. Further, we enhance the benchmark by releasing two large-scale labelled text classification and question-answering datasets curated from publicly available environmental disclosures. Lastly, we provide an analysis of several generic and CC-oriented models answering whether fine-tuning on domain text offers any improvements across these tasks. We hope this work provides a standard assessment tool for research on CC text data.

Dataset Condensation is a newly emerging technique aiming at learning a tiny dataset that captures the rich information encoded in the original dataset. As the size of datasets contemporary machine learning models rely on becomes increasingly large, condensation methods become a prominent direction for accelerating network training and reducing data storage. Despite numerous methods have been proposed in this rapidly growing field, evaluating and comparing different condensation methods is non-trivial and still remains an open issue. The quality of condensed dataset are often shadowed by many critical contributing factors to the end performance, such as data augmentation and model architectures. The lack of a systematic way to evaluate and compare condensation methods not only hinders our understanding of existing techniques, but also discourages practical usage of the synthesized datasets. This work provides the first large-scale standardized benchmark on Dataset Condensation. It consists of a suite of evaluations to comprehensively reflect the generability and effectiveness of condensation methods through the lens of their generated dataset. Leveraging this benchmark, we conduct a large-scale study of current condensation methods, and report many insightful findings that open up new possibilities for future development. The benchmark library, including evaluators, baseline methods, and generated datasets, is open-sourced to facilitate future research and application.

Detecting and attributing temperature increases due to climate change is crucial for understanding global warming and guiding adaptation strategies. The complexity of distinguishing human-induced climate signals from natural variability has challenged traditional detection and attribution (D&A) approaches, which seek to identify specific "fingerprints" in climate response variables. Deep learning offers potential for discerning these complex patterns in expansive spatial datasets. However, lack of standard protocols has hindered consistent comparisons across studies. We introduce ClimDetect, a standardized dataset of over 816k daily climate snapshots, designed to enhance model accuracy in identifying climate change signals. ClimDetect integrates various input and target variables used in past research, ensuring comparability and consistency. We also explore the application of vision transformers (ViT) to climate data, a novel and modernizing approach in this context. Our open-access data and code serve as a benchmark for advancing climate science through improved model evaluations. ClimDetect is publicly accessible via Huggingface dataet respository at: https://huggingface.co/datasets/ClimDetect/ClimDetect.

Early time classification algorithms aim to label a stream of features without processing the full input stream, while maintaining accuracy comparable to that achieved by applying the classifier to the entire input. In this paper, we introduce a statistical framework that can be applied to any sequential classifier, formulating a calibrated stopping rule. This data-driven rule attains finite-sample, distribution-free control of the accuracy gap between full and early-time classification. We start by presenting a novel method that builds on the Learn-then-Test calibration framework to control this gap marginally, on average over i.i.d. instances. As this algorithm tends to yield an excessively high accuracy gap for early halt times, our main contribution is the proposal of a framework that controls a stronger notion of error, where the accuracy gap is controlled conditionally on the accumulated halt times. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness, applicability, and usefulness of our method. We show that our proposed early stopping mechanism reduces up to 94% of timesteps used for classification while achieving rigorous accuracy gap control.

A new golden age in astronomy is upon us, dominated by data. Large astronomical surveys are broadcasting unprecedented rates of information, demanding machine learning as a critical component in modern scientific pipelines to handle the deluge of data. The upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory will raise the big-data bar for time-domain astronomy, with an expected 10 million alerts per-night, and generating many petabytes of data over the lifetime of the survey. Fast and efficient classification algorithms that can operate in real-time, yet robustly and accurately, are needed for time-critical events where additional resources can be sought for follow-up analyses. In order to handle such data, state-of-the-art deep learning architectures coupled with tools that leverage modern hardware accelerators are essential. We showcase how the use of modern deep compression methods can achieve a 18times reduction in model size, whilst preserving classification performance. We also show that in addition to the deep compression techniques, careful choice of file formats can improve inference latency, and thereby throughput of alerts, on the order of 8times for local processing, and 5times in a live production setting. To test this in a live setting, we deploy this optimised version of the original time-series transformer, t2, into the community alert broking system of FINK on real Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) alert data, and compare throughput performance with other science modules that exist in FINK. The results shown herein emphasise the time-series transformer's suitability for real-time classification at LSST scale, and beyond, and introduce deep model compression as a fundamental tool for improving deploy-ability and scalable inference of deep learning models for transient classification.

The offline reinforcement learning (RL) setting (also known as full batch RL), where a policy is learned from a static dataset, is compelling as progress enables RL methods to take advantage of large, previously-collected datasets, much like how the rise of large datasets has fueled results in supervised learning. However, existing online RL benchmarks are not tailored towards the offline setting and existing offline RL benchmarks are restricted to data generated by partially-trained agents, making progress in offline RL difficult to measure. In this work, we introduce benchmarks specifically designed for the offline setting, guided by key properties of datasets relevant to real-world applications of offline RL. With a focus on dataset collection, examples of such properties include: datasets generated via hand-designed controllers and human demonstrators, multitask datasets where an agent performs different tasks in the same environment, and datasets collected with mixtures of policies. By moving beyond simple benchmark tasks and data collected by partially-trained RL agents, we reveal important and unappreciated deficiencies of existing algorithms. To facilitate research, we have released our benchmark tasks and datasets with a comprehensive evaluation of existing algorithms, an evaluation protocol, and open-source examples. This serves as a common starting point for the community to identify shortcomings in existing offline RL methods and a collaborative route for progress in this emerging area.

Large language models are increasingly becoming a cornerstone technology in artificial intelligence, the sciences, and society as a whole, yet the optimal strategies for dataset composition and filtering remain largely elusive. Many of the top-performing models lack transparency in their dataset curation and model development processes, posing an obstacle to the development of fully open language models. In this paper, we identify three core data-related challenges that must be addressed to advance open-source language models. These include (1) transparency in model development, including the data curation process, (2) access to large quantities of high-quality data, and (3) availability of artifacts and metadata for dataset curation and analysis. To address these challenges, we release RedPajama-V1, an open reproduction of the LLaMA training dataset. In addition, we release RedPajama-V2, a massive web-only dataset consisting of raw, unfiltered text data together with quality signals and metadata. Together, the RedPajama datasets comprise over 100 trillion tokens spanning multiple domains and with their quality signals facilitate the filtering of data, aiming to inspire the development of numerous new datasets. To date, these datasets have already been used in the training of strong language models used in production, such as Snowflake Arctic, Salesforce's XGen and AI2's OLMo. To provide insight into the quality of RedPajama, we present a series of analyses and ablation studies with decoder-only language models with up to 1.6B parameters. Our findings demonstrate how quality signals for web data can be effectively leveraged to curate high-quality subsets of the dataset, underscoring the potential of RedPajama to advance the development of transparent and high-performing language models at scale.

Text-to-SQL, which enables natural language interaction with databases, serves as a pivotal method across diverse industries. With new, more powerful large language models (LLMs) emerging every few months, fine-tuning has become incredibly costly, labor-intensive, and error-prone. As an alternative, zero-shot Text-to-SQL, which leverages the growing knowledge and reasoning capabilities encoded in LLMs without task-specific fine-tuning, presents a promising and more challenging direction. To address this challenge, we propose Alpha-SQL, a novel approach that leverages a Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) framework to iteratively infer SQL construction actions based on partial SQL query states. To enhance the framework's reasoning capabilities, we introduce LLM-as-Action-Model to dynamically generate SQL construction actions during the MCTS process, steering the search toward more promising SQL queries. Moreover, Alpha-SQL employs a self-supervised reward function to evaluate the quality of candidate SQL queries, ensuring more accurate and efficient query generation. Experimental results show that Alpha-SQL achieves 69.7% execution accuracy on the BIRD development set, using a 32B open-source LLM without fine-tuning. Alpha-SQL outperforms the best previous zero-shot approach based on GPT-4o by 2.5% on the BIRD development set.

In theoretical neuroscience, recent work leverages deep learning tools to explore how some network attributes critically influence its learning dynamics. Notably, initial weight distributions with small (resp. large) variance may yield a rich (resp. lazy) regime, where significant (resp. minor) changes to network states and representation are observed over the course of learning. However, in biology, neural circuit connectivity could exhibit a low-rank structure and therefore differs markedly from the random initializations generally used for these studies. As such, here we investigate how the structure of the initial weights -- in particular their effective rank -- influences the network learning regime. Through both empirical and theoretical analyses, we discover that high-rank initializations typically yield smaller network changes indicative of lazier learning, a finding we also confirm with experimentally-driven initial connectivity in recurrent neural networks. Conversely, low-rank initialization biases learning towards richer learning. Importantly, however, as an exception to this rule, we find lazier learning can still occur with a low-rank initialization that aligns with task and data statistics. Our research highlights the pivotal role of initial weight structures in shaping learning regimes, with implications for metabolic costs of plasticity and risks of catastrophic forgetting.

Access to labeled reference data is one of the grand challenges in supervised machine learning endeavors. This is especially true for an automated analysis of remote sensing images on a global scale, which enables us to address global challenges such as urbanization and climate change using state-of-the-art machine learning techniques. To meet these pressing needs, especially in urban research, we provide open access to a valuable benchmark dataset named "So2Sat LCZ42," which consists of local climate zone (LCZ) labels of about half a million Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 image patches in 42 urban agglomerations (plus 10 additional smaller areas) across the globe. This dataset was labeled by 15 domain experts following a carefully designed labeling work flow and evaluation process over a period of six months. As rarely done in other labeled remote sensing dataset, we conducted rigorous quality assessment by domain experts. The dataset achieved an overall confidence of 85%. We believe this LCZ dataset is a first step towards an unbiased globallydistributed dataset for urban growth monitoring using machine learning methods, because LCZ provide a rather objective measure other than many other semantic land use and land cover classifications. It provides measures of the morphology, compactness, and height of urban areas, which are less dependent on human and culture. This dataset can be accessed from http://doi.org/10.14459/2018mp1483140.

Text-to-SQL, which involves translating natural language into Structured Query Language (SQL), is crucial for enabling broad access to structured databases without expert knowledge. However, designing models for such tasks is challenging due to numerous factors, including the presence of 'noise,' such as ambiguous questions and syntactical errors. This study provides an in-depth analysis of the distribution and types of noise in the widely used BIRD-Bench benchmark and the impact of noise on models. While BIRD-Bench was created to model dirty and noisy database values, it was not created to contain noise and errors in the questions and gold queries. We found that noise in questions and gold queries are prevalent in the dataset, with varying amounts across domains, and with an uneven distribution between noise types. The presence of incorrect gold SQL queries, which then generate incorrect gold answers, has a significant impact on the benchmark's reliability. Surprisingly, when evaluating models on corrected SQL queries, zero-shot baselines surpassed the performance of state-of-the-art prompting methods. We conclude that informative noise labels and reliable benchmarks are crucial to developing new Text-to-SQL methods that can handle varying types of noise. All datasets, annotations, and code are available at https://github.com/niklaswretblad/the-effects-of-noise-in-text-to-SQL.

Many social and environmental phenomena are associated with macroscopic changes in the built environment, captured by satellite imagery on a global scale and with daily temporal resolution. While widely used for prediction, these images and especially image sequences remain underutilized for causal inference, especially in the context of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), where causal identification is established by design. In this paper, we develop and compare a set of general tools for analyzing Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) from temporal satellite data that can be applied to any RCT where geographical identifiers are available. Through a simulation study, we analyze different modeling strategies for estimating CATE in sequences of satellite images. We find that image sequence representation models with more parameters generally yield a greater ability to detect heterogeneity. To explore the role of model and data choice in practice, we apply the approaches to two influential RCTs -- Banerjee et al. (2015), a poverty study in Cusco, Peru, and Bolsen et al. (2014), a water conservation experiment in Georgia, USA. We benchmark our image sequence models against image-only, tabular-only, and combined image-tabular data sources, summarizing practical implications for investigators in a multivariate analysis. Land cover classifications over satellite images facilitate interpretation of what image features drive heterogeneity. We also show robustness to data and model choice of satellite-based generalization of the RCT results to larger geographical areas outside the original. Overall, this paper shows how satellite sequence data can be incorporated into the analysis of RCTs, and provides evidence about the implications of data, model, and evaluation metric choice for causal analysis.

The quality of generative models depends on the quality of the data they are trained on. Creating large-scale, high-quality datasets is often expensive and sometimes impossible, e.g. in certain scientific applications where there is no access to clean data due to physical or instrumentation constraints. Ambient Diffusion and related frameworks train diffusion models with solely corrupted data (which are usually cheaper to acquire) but ambient models significantly underperform models trained on clean data. We study this phenomenon at scale by training more than 80 models on data with different corruption levels across three datasets ranging from 30,000 to approx 1.3M samples. We show that it is impossible, at these sample sizes, to match the performance of models trained on clean data when only training on noisy data. Yet, a combination of a small set of clean data (e.g.~10% of the total dataset) and a large set of highly noisy data suffices to reach the performance of models trained solely on similar-size datasets of clean data, and in particular to achieve near state-of-the-art performance. We provide theoretical evidence for our findings by developing novel sample complexity bounds for learning from Gaussian Mixtures with heterogeneous variances. Our theoretical model suggests that, for large enough datasets, the effective marginal utility of a noisy sample is exponentially worse than that of a clean sample. Providing a small set of clean samples can significantly reduce the sample size requirements for noisy data, as we also observe in our experiments.

Temperature scaling is a popular technique for tuning the sharpness of a model distribution. It is used extensively for sampling likely generations and calibrating model uncertainty, and even features as a controllable parameter to many large language models in deployment. However, autoregressive models rely on myopic temperature scaling that greedily optimizes the next token. To address this, we propose Long Horizon Temperature Scaling (LHTS), a novel approach for sampling from temperature-scaled joint distributions. LHTS is compatible with all likelihood-based models, and optimizes for the long-horizon likelihood of samples. We derive a temperature-dependent LHTS objective, and show that fine-tuning a model on a range of temperatures produces a single model capable of generation with a controllable long-horizon temperature parameter. We experiment with LHTS on image diffusion models and character/language autoregressive models, demonstrating advantages over myopic temperature scaling in likelihood and sample quality, and showing improvements in accuracy on a multiple choice analogy task by 10%.

Learning with few labeled tabular samples is often an essential requirement for industrial machine learning applications as varieties of tabular data suffer from high annotation costs or have difficulties in collecting new samples for novel tasks. Despite the utter importance, such a problem is quite under-explored in the field of tabular learning, and existing few-shot learning schemes from other domains are not straightforward to apply, mainly due to the heterogeneous characteristics of tabular data. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective framework for few-shot semi-supervised tabular learning, coined Self-generated Tasks from UNlabeled Tables (STUNT). Our key idea is to self-generate diverse few-shot tasks by treating randomly chosen columns as a target label. We then employ a meta-learning scheme to learn generalizable knowledge with the constructed tasks. Moreover, we introduce an unsupervised validation scheme for hyperparameter search (and early stopping) by generating a pseudo-validation set using STUNT from unlabeled data. Our experimental results demonstrate that our simple framework brings significant performance gain under various tabular few-shot learning benchmarks, compared to prior semi- and self-supervised baselines. Code is available at https://github.com/jaehyun513/STUNT.

The availability of reliable, high-resolution climate and weather data is important to inform long-term decisions on climate adaptation and mitigation and to guide rapid responses to extreme events. Forecasting models are limited by computational costs and, therefore, often generate coarse-resolution predictions. Statistical downscaling, including super-resolution methods from deep learning, can provide an efficient method of upsampling low-resolution data. However, despite achieving visually compelling results in some cases, such models frequently violate conservation laws when predicting physical variables. In order to conserve physical quantities, here we introduce methods that guarantee statistical constraints are satisfied by a deep learning downscaling model, while also improving their performance according to traditional metrics. We compare different constraining approaches and demonstrate their applicability across different neural architectures as well as a variety of climate and weather data sets. Besides enabling faster and more accurate climate predictions through downscaling, we also show that our novel methodologies can improve super-resolution for satellite data and natural images data sets.

Due to the importance of zero-shot learning, i.e. classifying images where there is a lack of labeled training data, the number of proposed approaches has recently increased steadily. We argue that it is time to take a step back and to analyze the status quo of the area. The purpose of this paper is three-fold. First, given the fact that there is no agreed upon zero-shot learning benchmark, we first define a new benchmark by unifying both the evaluation protocols and data splits of publicly available datasets used for this task. This is an important contribution as published results are often not comparable and sometimes even flawed due to, e.g. pre-training on zero-shot test classes. Moreover, we propose a new zero-shot learning dataset, the Animals with Attributes 2 (AWA2) dataset which we make publicly available both in terms of image features and the images themselves. Second, we compare and analyze a significant number of the state-of-the-art methods in depth, both in the classic zero-shot setting but also in the more realistic generalized zero-shot setting. Finally, we discuss in detail the limitations of the current status of the area which can be taken as a basis for advancing it.

This report describes the training dataset creation and recipe behind the family of arctic-embed text embedding models (a set of five models ranging from 22 to 334 million parameters with weights open-sourced under an Apache-2 license). At the time of their release, each model achieved state-of-the-art retrieval accuracy for models of their size on the MTEB Retrieval leaderboard, with the largest model, arctic-embed-l outperforming closed source embedding models such as Cohere's embed-v3 and Open AI's text-embed-3-large. In addition to the details of our training recipe, we have provided several informative ablation studies, which we believe are the cause of our model performance.

Irregularly sampled time series data arise naturally in many application domains including biology, ecology, climate science, astronomy, and health. Such data represent fundamental challenges to many classical models from machine learning and statistics due to the presence of non-uniform intervals between observations. However, there has been significant progress within the machine learning community over the last decade on developing specialized models and architectures for learning from irregularly sampled univariate and multivariate time series data. In this survey, we first describe several axes along which approaches to learning from irregularly sampled time series differ including what data representations they are based on, what modeling primitives they leverage to deal with the fundamental problem of irregular sampling, and what inference tasks they are designed to perform. We then survey the recent literature organized primarily along the axis of modeling primitives. We describe approaches based on temporal discretization, interpolation, recurrence, attention and structural invariance. We discuss similarities and differences between approaches and highlight primary strengths and weaknesses.

This paper describes the first open dataset for full-scale and high-speed autonomous racing. Multi-modal sensor data has been collected from fully autonomous Indy race cars operating at speeds of up to 170 mph (273 kph). Six teams who raced in the Indy Autonomous Challenge have contributed to this dataset. The dataset spans 11 interesting racing scenarios across two race tracks which include solo laps, multi-agent laps, overtaking situations, high-accelerations, banked tracks, obstacle avoidance, pit entry and exit at different speeds. The dataset contains data from 27 racing sessions across the 11 scenarios with over 6.5 hours of sensor data recorded from the track. The data is organized and released in both ROS2 and nuScenes format. We have also developed the ROS2-to-nuScenes conversion library to achieve this. The RACECAR data is unique because of the high-speed environment of autonomous racing. We present several benchmark problems on localization, object detection and tracking (LiDAR, Radar, and Camera), and mapping using the RACECAR data to explore issues that arise at the limits of operation of the vehicle.

Unsupervised pretraining has been transformative in many supervised domains. However, applying such ideas to reinforcement learning (RL) presents a unique challenge in that fine-tuning does not involve mimicking task-specific data, but rather exploring and locating the solution through iterative self-improvement. In this work, we study how unlabeled prior trajectory data can be leveraged to learn efficient exploration strategies. While prior data can be used to pretrain a set of low-level skills, or as additional off-policy data for online RL, it has been unclear how to combine these ideas effectively for online exploration. Our method SUPE (Skills from Unlabeled Prior data for Exploration) demonstrates that a careful combination of these ideas compounds their benefits. Our method first extracts low-level skills using a variational autoencoder (VAE), and then pseudo-relabels unlabeled trajectories using an optimistic reward model, transforming prior data into high-level, task-relevant examples. Finally, SUPE uses these transformed examples as additional off-policy data for online RL to learn a high-level policy that composes pretrained low-level skills to explore efficiently. We empirically show that SUPE reliably outperforms prior strategies, successfully solving a suite of long-horizon, sparse-reward tasks. Code: https://github.com/rail-berkeley/supe.

In recent years, vision-language models have made significant strides, excelling in tasks like optical character recognition and geometric problem-solving. However, several critical issues remain: 1) Proprietary models often lack transparency about their architectures, while open-source models need more detailed ablations of their training strategies. 2) Pre-training data in open-source works is under-explored, with datasets added empirically, making the process cumbersome. 3) Fine-tuning often focuses on adding datasets, leading to diminishing returns. To address these issues, we propose the following contributions: 1) We trained a robust baseline model using the latest advancements in vision-language models, introducing effective improvements and conducting comprehensive ablation and validation for each technique. 2) Inspired by recent work on large language models, we filtered pre-training data using perplexity, selecting the lowest perplexity data for training. This approach allowed us to train on a curated 1M dataset, achieving competitive performance. 3) During visual instruction tuning, we used model soup on different datasets when adding more datasets yielded marginal improvements. These innovations resulted in a 9B parameter model that performs competitively with state-of-the-art models. Our strategies are efficient and lightweight, making them easily adoptable by the community.

Learning accurate predictive models of real-world dynamic phenomena (e.g., climate, biological) remains a challenging task. One key issue is that the data generated by both natural and artificial processes often comprise time series that are irregularly sampled and/or contain missing observations. In this work, we propose the Neural Continuous-Discrete State Space Model (NCDSSM) for continuous-time modeling of time series through discrete-time observations. NCDSSM employs auxiliary variables to disentangle recognition from dynamics, thus requiring amortized inference only for the auxiliary variables. Leveraging techniques from continuous-discrete filtering theory, we demonstrate how to perform accurate Bayesian inference for the dynamic states. We propose three flexible parameterizations of the latent dynamics and an efficient training objective that marginalizes the dynamic states during inference. Empirical results on multiple benchmark datasets across various domains show improved imputation and forecasting performance of NCDSSM over existing models.

The use of Large Language Models (LLMs) in climate science has recently gained significant attention. However, a critical issue remains: the lack of a comprehensive evaluation framework capable of assessing the quality and scientific validity of model outputs. To address this issue, we develop ClimaGen (Climate QA Generator), an adaptive learning framework that generates question-answer pairs from graduate textbooks with climate scientists in the loop. As a result, we present ClimaQA-Gold, an expert-annotated benchmark dataset alongside ClimaQA-Silver, a large-scale, comprehensive synthetic QA dataset for climate science. Finally, we develop evaluation strategies and compare different LLMs on our benchmarks. Our results offer novel insights into various approaches used to enhance knowledge of climate LLMs. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/Rose-STL-Lab/genie-climaqa

With the success of machine learning (ML) applied to climate reaching further every day, emulators have begun to show promise not only for weather but for multi-year time scales in the atmosphere. Similar work for the ocean remains nascent, with state-of-the-art limited to models running for shorter time scales or only for regions of the globe. In this work, we demonstrate high-skill global emulation for surface ocean fields over 5-8 years of model rollout, accurately representing modes of variability for two different ML architectures (ConvNext and Transformers). In addition, we address the outstanding question of generalization, an essential consideration if the end-use of emulation is to model warming scenarios outside of the model training data. We show that 1) generalization is not an intrinsic feature of a data-driven emulator, 2) fine-tuning the emulator on only small amounts of additional data from a distribution similar to the test set can enable the emulator to perform well in a warmed climate, and 3) the forced emulators are robust to noise in the forcing.

Two different approaches exist to handle missing values for prediction: either imputation, prior to fitting any predictive algorithms, or dedicated methods able to natively incorporate missing values. While imputation is widely (and easily) use, it is unfortunately biased when low-capacity predictors (such as linear models) are applied afterward. However, in practice, naive imputation exhibits good predictive performance. In this paper, we study the impact of imputation in a high-dimensional linear model with MCAR missing data. We prove that zero imputation performs an implicit regularization closely related to the ridge method, often used in high-dimensional problems. Leveraging on this connection, we establish that the imputation bias is controlled by a ridge bias, which vanishes in high dimension. As a predictor, we argue in favor of the averaged SGD strategy, applied to zero-imputed data. We establish an upper bound on its generalization error, highlighting that imputation is benign in the d sqrt n regime. Experiments illustrate our findings.

The problem of community-level information pathway prediction (CLIPP) aims at predicting the transmission trajectory of content across online communities. A successful solution to CLIPP holds significance as it facilitates the distribution of valuable information to a larger audience and prevents the proliferation of misinformation. Notably, solving CLIPP is non-trivial as inter-community relationships and influence are unknown, information spread is multi-modal, and new content and new communities appear over time. In this work, we address CLIPP by collecting large-scale, multi-modal datasets to examine the diffusion of online YouTube videos on Reddit. We analyze these datasets to construct community influence graphs (CIGs) and develop a novel dynamic graph framework, INPAC (Information Pathway Across Online Communities), which incorporates CIGs to capture the temporal variability and multi-modal nature of video propagation across communities. Experimental results in both warm-start and cold-start scenarios show that INPAC outperforms seven baselines in CLIPP.

Earth observation is a fundamental tool for monitoring the evolution of land use in specific areas of interest. Observing and precisely defining change, in this context, requires both time-series data and pixel-wise segmentations. To that end, we propose the DynamicEarthNet dataset that consists of daily, multi-spectral satellite observations of 75 selected areas of interest distributed over the globe with imagery from Planet Labs. These observations are paired with pixel-wise monthly semantic segmentation labels of 7 land use and land cover (LULC) classes. DynamicEarthNet is the first dataset that provides this unique combination of daily measurements and high-quality labels. In our experiments, we compare several established baselines that either utilize the daily observations as additional training data (semi-supervised learning) or multiple observations at once (spatio-temporal learning) as a point of reference for future research. Finally, we propose a new evaluation metric SCS that addresses the specific challenges associated with time-series semantic change segmentation. The data is available at: https://mediatum.ub.tum.de/1650201.

Historical weather records from Europe indicate that the Earth experienced substantial climate variability, which caused, for instance, the Little Ice Age and the global crisis in the period between the 14th and 19th centuries. However, it is still unclear how global this climate variability was because of the scarce meteorological data availability in other regions including East Asia, especially around the 17th century. In this context, Seungjeongwon Ilgi, a daily record of the Royal Secretariat of the Joseon Dynasty of Korea, is a precious source of historical meteorological records for the Korean Peninsula, as it covers 288 years of weather observations made during 1623-1910. We used the digital database of Seungjeongwon Ilgi to construct a machine-readable weather condition dataset. To this end, we extracted valid weather information from the original weather description text and compiled them into predefined weather categories. Additionally, we attempted to improve the usability of the dataset by converting the reported dates in the traditional calendar system to those in the Gregorian calendar. Finally, we outlined the promising implications of this dataset for meteorological and climatological studies, while describing the limitations of the dataset. Overall, future studies focusing on the climate and weather of the past could use this meteorological database for investigating long-term climate variability. Our datasets are publicly available at 10.5281/zenodo.8142701.

In this work, we present a novel physics-based data-driven framework for reduced-order modeling of laser ignition in a model rocket combustor based on parameterized neural ordinary differential equations (PNODE). Deep neural networks are embedded as functions of high-dimensional parameters of laser ignition to predict various terms in a 0D flow model including the heat source function, pre-exponential factors, and activation energy. Using the governing equations of a 0D flow model, our PNODE needs only a limited number of training samples and predicts trajectories of various quantities such as temperature, pressure, and mass fractions of species while satisfying physical constraints. We validate our physics-based PNODE on solution snapshots of high-fidelity Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations of laser-induced ignition in a prototype rocket combustor. We compare the performance of our physics-based PNODE with that of kernel ridge regression and fully connected neural networks. Our results show that our physics-based PNODE provides solutions with lower mean absolute errors of average temperature over time, thus improving the prediction of successful laser ignition with high-dimensional parameters.

Ocean scientists have been collecting visual data to study marine organisms for decades. These images and videos are extremely valuable both for basic science and environmental monitoring tasks. There are tools for automatically processing these data, but none that are capable of handling the extreme variability in sample populations, image quality, and habitat characteristics that are common in visual sampling of the ocean. Such distribution shifts can occur over very short physical distances and in narrow time windows. Creating models that are able to recognize when an image or video sequence contains a new organism, an unusual collection of animals, or is otherwise out-of-sample is critical to fully leverage visual data in the ocean. The FathomNet2023 competition dataset presents a realistic scenario where the set of animals in the target data differs from the training data. The challenge is both to identify the organisms in a target image and assess whether it is out-of-sample.

With the exacerbation of the biodiversity and climate crises, macroecological pursuits such as global biodiversity mapping become more urgent. Remote sensing offers a wealth of Earth observation data for ecological studies, but the scarcity of labeled datasets remains a major challenge. Recently, self-supervised learning has enabled learning representations from unlabeled data, triggering the development of pretrained geospatial models with generalizable features. However, these models are often trained on datasets biased toward areas of high human activity, leaving entire ecological regions underrepresented. Additionally, while some datasets attempt to address seasonality through multi-date imagery, they typically follow calendar seasons rather than local phenological cycles. To better capture vegetation seasonality at a global scale, we propose a simple phenology-informed sampling strategy and introduce corresponding SSL4Eco, a multi-date Sentinel-2 dataset, on which we train an existing model with a season-contrastive objective. We compare representations learned from SSL4Eco against other datasets on diverse ecological downstream tasks and demonstrate that our straightforward sampling method consistently improves representation quality, highlighting the importance of dataset construction. The model pretrained on SSL4Eco reaches state of the art performance on 7 out of 8 downstream tasks spanning (multi-label) classification and regression. We release our code, data, and model weights to support macroecological and computer vision research at https://github.com/PlekhanovaElena/ssl4eco.

3D semantic segmentation is a fundamental task for robotic and autonomous driving applications. Recent works have been focused on using deep learning techniques, whereas developing fine-annotated 3D LiDAR datasets is extremely labor intensive and requires professional skills. The performance limitation caused by insufficient datasets is called data hunger problem. This research provides a comprehensive survey and experimental study on the question: are we hungry for 3D LiDAR data for semantic segmentation? The studies are conducted at three levels. First, a broad review to the main 3D LiDAR datasets is conducted, followed by a statistical analysis on three representative datasets to gain an in-depth view on the datasets' size and diversity, which are the critical factors in learning deep models. Second, a systematic review to the state-of-the-art 3D semantic segmentation is conducted, followed by experiments and cross examinations of three representative deep learning methods to find out how the size and diversity of the datasets affect deep models' performance. Finally, a systematic survey to the existing efforts to solve the data hunger problem is conducted on both methodological and dataset's viewpoints, followed by an insightful discussion of remaining problems and open questions To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to analyze the data hunger problem for 3D semantic segmentation using deep learning techniques that are addressed in the literature review, statistical analysis, and cross-dataset and cross-algorithm experiments. We share findings and discussions, which may lead to potential topics in future works.

Air pollution poses a significant threat to public health and well-being, particularly in urban areas. This study introduces a series of machine-learning models that integrate data from the Sentinel-5P satellite, meteorological conditions, and topological characteristics to forecast future levels of five major pollutants. The investigation delineates the process of data collection, detailing the combination of diverse data sources utilized in the study. Through experiments conducted in the Milan metropolitan area, the models demonstrate their efficacy in predicting pollutant levels for the forthcoming day, achieving a percentage error of around 30%. The proposed models are advantageous as they are independent of monitoring stations, facilitating their use in areas without existing infrastructure. Additionally, we have released the collected dataset to the public, aiming to stimulate further research in this field. This research contributes to advancing our understanding of urban air quality dynamics and emphasizes the importance of amalgamating satellite, meteorological, and topographical data to develop robust pollution forecasting models.

Data plays a fundamental role in the training of Large Language Models (LLMs). Effective data management, particularly in the formulation of a well-suited training dataset, holds significance for enhancing model performance and improving training efficiency during pretraining and supervised fine-tuning phases. Despite the considerable importance of data management, the current research community still falls short in providing a systematic analysis of the rationale behind management strategy selection, its consequential effects, methodologies for evaluating curated datasets, and the ongoing pursuit of improved strategies. Consequently, the exploration of data management has attracted more and more attention among the research community. This survey provides a comprehensive overview of current research in data management within both the pretraining and supervised fine-tuning stages of LLMs, covering various noteworthy aspects of data management strategy design: data quantity, data quality, domain/task composition, etc. Looking toward the future, we extrapolate existing challenges and outline promising directions for development in this field. Therefore, this survey serves as a guiding resource for practitioners aspiring to construct powerful LLMs through effective data management practices. The collection of the latest papers is available at https://github.com/ZigeW/data_management_LLM.

We propose and release a new vulnerable source code dataset. We curate the dataset by crawling security issue websites, extracting vulnerability-fixing commits and source codes from the corresponding projects. Our new dataset contains 18,945 vulnerable functions spanning 150 CWEs and 330,492 non-vulnerable functions extracted from 7,514 commits. Our dataset covers 295 more projects than all previous datasets combined. Combining our new dataset with previous datasets, we present an analysis of the challenges and promising research directions of using deep learning for detecting software vulnerabilities. We study 11 model architectures belonging to 4 families. Our results show that deep learning is still not ready for vulnerability detection, due to high false positive rate, low F1 score, and difficulty of detecting hard CWEs. In particular, we demonstrate an important generalization challenge for the deployment of deep learning-based models. We show that increasing the volume of training data may not further improve the performance of deep learning models for vulnerability detection, but might be useful to improve the generalization ability to unseen projects. We also identify hopeful future research directions. We demonstrate that large language models (LLMs) are a promising research direction for ML-based vulnerability detection, outperforming Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) with code-structure features in our experiments. Moreover, developing source code specific pre-training objectives is a promising research direction to improve the vulnerability detection performance.

Battery Life Prediction (BLP), which relies on time series data produced by battery degradation tests, is crucial for battery utilization, optimization, and production. Despite impressive advancements, this research area faces three key challenges. Firstly, the limited size of existing datasets impedes insights into modern battery life data. Secondly, most datasets are restricted to small-capacity lithium-ion batteries tested under a narrow range of diversity in labs, raising concerns about the generalizability of findings. Thirdly, inconsistent and limited benchmarks across studies obscure the effectiveness of baselines and leave it unclear if models popular in other time series fields are effective for BLP. To address these challenges, we propose BatteryLife, a comprehensive dataset and benchmark for BLP. BatteryLife integrates 16 datasets, offering a 2.4 times sample size compared to the previous largest dataset, and provides the most diverse battery life resource with batteries from 8 formats, 80 chemical systems, 12 operating temperatures, and 646 charge/discharge protocols, including both laboratory and industrial tests. Notably, BatteryLife is the first to release battery life datasets of zinc-ion batteries, sodium-ion batteries, and industry-tested large-capacity lithium-ion batteries. With the comprehensive dataset, we revisit the effectiveness of baselines popular in this and other time series fields. Furthermore, we propose CyclePatch, a plug-in technique that can be employed in a series of neural networks. Extensive benchmarking of 18 methods reveals that models popular in other time series fields can be unsuitable for BLP, and CyclePatch consistently improves model performance establishing state-of-the-art benchmarks. Moreover, BatteryLife evaluates model performance across aging conditions and domains. BatteryLife is available at https://github.com/Ruifeng-Tan/BatteryLife.

The rise of the phenomenon of the "right to be forgotten" has prompted research on machine unlearning, which grants data owners the right to actively withdraw data that has been used for model training, and requires the elimination of the contribution of that data to the model. A simple method to achieve this is to use the remaining data to retrain the model, but this is not acceptable for other data owners who continue to participate in training. Existing machine unlearning methods have been found to be ineffective in quickly removing knowledge from deep learning models. This paper proposes using a stochastic network as a teacher to expedite the mitigation of the influence caused by forgotten data on the model. We performed experiments on three datasets, and the findings demonstrate that our approach can efficiently mitigate the influence of target data on the model within a single epoch. This allows for one-time erasure and reconstruction of the model, and the reconstruction model achieves the same performance as the retrained model.

Adapting to concept drift is a challenging task in machine learning, which is usually tackled using incremental learning techniques that periodically re-fit a learning model leveraging newly available data. A primary limitation of these techniques is their reliance on substantial amounts of data for retraining. The necessity of acquiring fresh data introduces temporal delays prior to retraining, potentially rendering the models inaccurate if a sudden concept drift occurs in-between two consecutive retrainings. In communication networks, such issue emerges when performing traffic forecasting following a~failure event: post-failure re-routing may induce a drastic shift in distribution and pattern of traffic data, thus requiring a timely model adaptation. In this work, we address this challenge for the problem of traffic forecasting and propose an approach that exploits adaptive learning algorithms, namely, liquid neural networks, which are capable of self-adaptation to abrupt changes in data patterns without requiring any retraining. Through extensive simulations of failure scenarios, we compare the predictive performance of our proposed approach to that of a reference method based on incremental learning. Experimental results show that our proposed approach outperforms incremental learning-based methods in situations where the shifts in traffic patterns are drastic.

The field of trajectory forecasting has grown significantly in recent years, partially owing to the release of numerous large-scale, real-world human trajectory datasets for autonomous vehicles (AVs) and pedestrian motion tracking. While such datasets have been a boon for the community, they each use custom and unique data formats and APIs, making it cumbersome for researchers to train and evaluate methods across multiple datasets. To remedy this, we present trajdata: a unified interface to multiple human trajectory datasets. At its core, trajdata provides a simple, uniform, and efficient representation and API for trajectory and map data. As a demonstration of its capabilities, in this work we conduct a comprehensive empirical evaluation of existing trajectory datasets, providing users with a rich understanding of the data underpinning much of current pedestrian and AV motion forecasting research, and proposing suggestions for future datasets from these insights. trajdata is permissively licensed (Apache 2.0) and can be accessed online at https://github.com/NVlabs/trajdata

Time series modeling is a well-established problem, which often requires that methods (1) expressively represent complicated dependencies, (2) forecast long horizons, and (3) efficiently train over long sequences. State-space models (SSMs) are classical models for time series, and prior works combine SSMs with deep learning layers for efficient sequence modeling. However, we find fundamental limitations with these prior approaches, proving their SSM representations cannot express autoregressive time series processes. We thus introduce SpaceTime, a new state-space time series architecture that improves all three criteria. For expressivity, we propose a new SSM parameterization based on the companion matrix -- a canonical representation for discrete-time processes -- which enables SpaceTime's SSM layers to learn desirable autoregressive processes. For long horizon forecasting, we introduce a "closed-loop" variation of the companion SSM, which enables SpaceTime to predict many future time-steps by generating its own layer-wise inputs. For efficient training and inference, we introduce an algorithm that reduces the memory and compute of a forward pass with the companion matrix. With sequence length ell and state-space size d, we go from O(d ell) na\"ively to O(d + ell). In experiments, our contributions lead to state-of-the-art results on extensive and diverse benchmarks, with best or second-best AUROC on 6 / 7 ECG and speech time series classification, and best MSE on 14 / 16 Informer forecasting tasks. Furthermore, we find SpaceTime (1) fits AR(p) processes that prior deep SSMs fail on, (2) forecasts notably more accurately on longer horizons than prior state-of-the-art, and (3) speeds up training on real-world ETTh1 data by 73% and 80% relative wall-clock time over Transformers and LSTMs.

Thermal comfort inside buildings is a well-studied field where human judgment for thermal comfort is collected and may be used for automatic thermal comfort estimation. However, indoor scenarios are rather static in terms of thermal state changes and, thus, cannot be applied to dynamic conditions, e.g., inside a vehicle. In this work, we present our findings of a gap between building and in-vehicle scenarios regarding thermal comfort estimation. We provide evidence by comparing deep neural classifiers for thermal comfort estimation for indoor and in-vehicle conditions. Further, we introduce a temporal dataset for indoor predictions incorporating 31 input signals and self-labeled user ratings by 18 subjects in a self-built climatic chamber. For in-vehicle scenarios, we acquired a second dataset featuring human judgments from 20 subjects in a BMW 3 Series. Our experimental results indicate superior performance for estimations from time series data over single vector input. Leveraging modern machine learning architectures enables us to recognize human thermal comfort states and estimate future states automatically. We provide details on training a recurrent network-based classifier and perform an initial performance benchmark of the proposed dataset. Ultimately, we compare our collected dataset to publicly available thermal comfort datasets.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) aims to learn from historical data without requiring (costly) access to the environment. To facilitate offline RL research, we previously introduced NeoRL, which highlighted that datasets from real-world tasks are often conservative and limited. With years of experience applying offline RL to various domains, we have identified additional real-world challenges. These include extremely conservative data distributions produced by deployed control systems, delayed action effects caused by high-latency transitions, external factors arising from the uncontrollable variance of transitions, and global safety constraints that are difficult to evaluate during the decision-making process. These challenges are underrepresented in previous benchmarks but frequently occur in real-world tasks. To address this, we constructed the extended Near Real-World Offline RL Benchmark (NeoRL-2), which consists of 7 datasets from 7 simulated tasks along with their corresponding evaluation simulators. Benchmarking results from state-of-the-art offline RL approaches demonstrate that current methods often struggle to outperform the data-collection behavior policy, highlighting the need for more effective methods. We hope NeoRL-2 will accelerate the development of reinforcement learning algorithms for real-world applications. The benchmark project page is available at https://github.com/polixir/NeoRL2.

New capabilities in foundation models are owed in large part to massive, widely-sourced, and under-documented training data collections. Existing practices in data collection have led to challenges in documenting data transparency, tracing authenticity, verifying consent, privacy, representation, bias, copyright infringement, and the overall development of ethical and trustworthy foundation models. In response, regulation is emphasizing the need for training data transparency to understand foundation models' limitations. Based on a large-scale analysis of the foundation model training data landscape and existing solutions, we identify the missing infrastructure to facilitate responsible foundation model development practices. We examine the current shortcomings of common tools for tracing data authenticity, consent, and documentation, and outline how policymakers, developers, and data creators can facilitate responsible foundation model development by adopting universal data provenance standards.

Novel Class Discovery (NCD) is the problem of trying to discover novel classes in an unlabeled set, given a labeled set of different but related classes. The majority of NCD methods proposed so far only deal with image data, despite tabular data being among the most widely used type of data in practical applications. To interpret the results of clustering or NCD algorithms, data scientists need to understand the domain- and application-specific attributes of tabular data. This task is difficult and can often only be performed by a domain expert. Therefore, this interface allows a domain expert to easily run state-of-the-art algorithms for NCD in tabular data. With minimal knowledge in data science, interpretable results can be generated.