Daily Papers

Estimating post-click conversion rate (CVR) accurately is crucial for ranking systems in industrial applications such as recommendation and advertising. Conventional CVR modeling applies popular deep learning methods and achieves state-of-the-art performance. However it encounters several task-specific problems in practice, making CVR modeling challenging. For example, conventional CVR models are trained with samples of clicked impressions while utilized to make inference on the entire space with samples of all impressions. This causes a sample selection bias problem. Besides, there exists an extreme data sparsity problem, making the model fitting rather difficult. In this paper, we model CVR in a brand-new perspective by making good use of sequential pattern of user actions, i.e., impression -> click -> conversion. The proposed Entire Space Multi-task Model (ESMM) can eliminate the two problems simultaneously by i) modeling CVR directly over the entire space, ii) employing a feature representation transfer learning strategy. Experiments on dataset gathered from Taobao's recommender system demonstrate that ESMM significantly outperforms competitive methods. We also release a sampling version of this dataset to enable future research. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first public dataset which contains samples with sequential dependence of click and conversion labels for CVR modeling.

Reverb plays a critical role in music production, where it provides listeners with spatial realization, timbre, and texture of the music. Yet, it is challenging to reproduce the musical reverb of a reference music track even by skilled engineers. In response, we propose an end-to-end system capable of switching the musical reverb factor of two different mixed vocal tracks. This method enables us to apply the reverb of the reference track to the source track to which the effect is desired. Further, our model can perform de-reverberation when the reference track is used as a dry vocal source. The proposed model is trained in combination with an adversarial objective, which makes it possible to handle high-resolution audio samples. The perceptual evaluation confirmed that the proposed model can convert the reverb factor with the preferred rate of 64.8%. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to apply deep neural networks to converting music reverb of vocal tracks.

Current approaches to sales conversation analysis and conversion prediction typically rely on Large Language Models (LLMs) combined with basic retrieval augmented generation (RAG). These systems, while capable of answering questions, fail to accurately predict conversion probability or provide strategic guidance in real time. In this paper, we present SalesRLAgent, a novel framework leveraging specialized reinforcement learning to predict conversion probability throughout sales conversations. Unlike systems from Kapa.ai, Mendable, Inkeep, and others that primarily use off-the-shelf LLMs for content generation, our approach treats conversion prediction as a sequential decision problem, training on synthetic data generated using GPT-4O to develop a specialized probability estimation model. Our system incorporates Azure OpenAI embeddings (3072 dimensions), turn-by-turn state tracking, and meta-learning capabilities to understand its own knowledge boundaries. Evaluations demonstrate that SalesRLAgent achieves 96.7% accuracy in conversion prediction, outperforming LLM-only approaches by 34.7% while offering significantly faster inference (85ms vs 3450ms for GPT-4). Furthermore, integration with existing sales platforms shows a 43.2% increase in conversion rates when representatives utilize our system's real-time guidance. SalesRLAgent represents a fundamental shift from content generation to strategic sales intelligence, providing moment-by-moment conversion probability estimation with actionable insights for sales professionals.

Developments in IoT applications are playing an important role in our day-to-day life, starting from business predictions to self driving cars. One of the area, most influenced by the field of AI and IoT is retail analytics. In Retail Analytics, Conversion Rates - a metric which is most often used by retail stores to measure how many people have visited the store and how many purchases has happened. This retail conversion rate assess the marketing operations, increasing stock, store outlet and running promotions ..etc. Our project intends to build a cost-effective people counting system with AI at Edge, where it calculates Conversion rates using total number of people counted by the system and number of transactions for the day, which helps in providing analytical insights for retail store optimization with a very minimum hardware requirements.

A compartmental deterministic model that allows (1) immunity from two stages of infection and carriage, and (2) disease induced death, is used in studying the dynamics of meningitis epidemic process in a closed population. It allows for difference in the transmission rate of infection to a susceptible by a carrier and an infective. It is generalized to allow a proportion ({\phi}) of those susceptibles infected to progress directly to infectives in stage I. Both models are used in this study. The threshold conditions for the spread of carrier and infectives in stage I are derived for the two models. Sensitivity analysis is performed on the reproductive number derived from the next generation matrix. The case-carrier ratio profile for various parameters and threshold values are shown. So also are the graphs of the total number ever infected as influenced by {\epsilon} and {\phi}. The infection transmission rate (eta), the odds in favor of a carrier, over an infective, in transmitting an infection to a susceptible ({\epsilon}) and the carrier conversion rate ({\phi}) to an infective in stage I, are identified as key parameters that should be subject of attention for any control intervention strategy. The case-carrier ratio profiles provide evidence of a critical case-carrier ratio attained before the number of reported cases grows to an epidemic level. They also provide visual evidence of epidemiological context, in this case, epidemic incidence (in later part of dry season) and endemic incidence (during rainy season). Results from total proportion ever infected suggest that the model, in which {\phi}=0 obtained, can adequately represent, in essence, the generalized model for this study.

This paper explores multi-scenario optimization on large platforms using multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL). We address this by treating scenarios like search, recommendation, and advertising as a cooperative, partially observable multi-agent decision problem. We introduce the Multi-Agent Recurrent Deterministic Policy Gradient (MARDPG) algorithm, which aligns different scenarios under a shared objective and allows for strategy communication to boost overall performance. Our results show marked improvements in metrics such as click-through rate (CTR), conversion rate, and total sales, confirming our method's efficacy in practical settings.

This work introduces MultiTRON, an approach that adapts Pareto front approximation techniques to multi-objective session-based recommender systems using a transformer neural network. Our approach optimizes trade-offs between key metrics such as click-through and conversion rates by training on sampled preference vectors. A significant advantage is that after training, a single model can access the entire Pareto front, allowing it to be tailored to meet the specific requirements of different stakeholders by adjusting an additional input vector that weights the objectives. We validate the model's performance through extensive offline and online evaluation. For broader application and research, the source code is made available at https://github.com/otto-de/MultiTRON. The results confirm the model's ability to manage multiple recommendation objectives effectively, offering a flexible tool for diverse business needs.

Ancillaries have become a major source of revenue and profitability in the travel industry. Yet, conventional pricing strategies are based on business rules that are poorly optimized and do not respond to changing market conditions. This paper describes the dynamic pricing model developed by Deepair solutions, an AI technology provider for travel suppliers. We present a pricing model that provides dynamic pricing recommendations specific to each customer interaction and optimizes expected revenue per customer. The unique nature of personalized pricing provides the opportunity to search over the market space to find the optimal price-point of each ancillary for each customer, without violating customer privacy. In this paper, we present and compare three approaches for dynamic pricing of ancillaries, with increasing levels of sophistication: (1) a two-stage forecasting and optimization model using a logistic mapping function; (2) a two-stage model that uses a deep neural network for forecasting, coupled with a revenue maximization technique using discrete exhaustive search; (3) a single-stage end-to-end deep neural network that recommends the optimal price. We describe the performance of these models based on both offline and online evaluations. We also measure the real-world business impact of these approaches by deploying them in an A/B test on an airline's internet booking website. We show that traditional machine learning techniques outperform human rule-based approaches in an online setting by improving conversion by 36% and revenue per offer by 10%. We also provide results for our offline experiments which show that deep learning algorithms outperform traditional machine learning techniques for this problem. Our end-to-end deep learning model is currently being deployed by the airline in their booking system.

Large language models are being widely used across industries to generate content that contributes directly to key performance metrics, such as conversion rates. Pretrained models, however, often fall short when it comes to aligning with human preferences or optimizing for business objectives. As a result, fine-tuning with good-quality labeled data is essential to guide models to generate content that achieves better results. Controlled experiments, like A/B tests, can provide such data, but they are often expensive and come with significant engineering and logistical challenges. Meanwhile, companies have access to a vast amount of historical (observational) data that remains underutilized. In this work, we study the challenges and opportunities of fine-tuning LLMs using observational data. We show that while observational outcomes can provide valuable supervision, directly fine-tuning models on such data can lead them to learn spurious correlations. We present empirical evidence of this issue using various real-world datasets and propose DeconfoundLM, a method that explicitly removes the effect of known confounders from reward signals. Using simulation experiments, we demonstrate that DeconfoundLM improves the recovery of causal relationships and mitigates failure modes found in fine-tuning methods that ignore or naively incorporate confounding variables. Our findings highlight that while observational data presents risks, with the right causal corrections, it can be a powerful source of signal for LLM alignment. Please refer to the project page for code and related resources.

Zero-shot voice conversion aims to transform a source speech utterance to match the timbre of a reference speech from an unseen speaker. Traditional approaches struggle with timbre leakage, insufficient timbre representation, and mismatches between training and inference tasks. We propose Seed-VC, a novel framework that addresses these issues by introducing an external timbre shifter during training to perturb the source speech timbre, mitigating leakage and aligning training with inference. Additionally, we employ a diffusion transformer that leverages the entire reference speech context, capturing fine-grained timbre features through in-context learning. Experiments demonstrate that Seed-VC outperforms strong baselines like OpenVoice and CosyVoice, achieving higher speaker similarity and lower word error rates in zero-shot voice conversion tasks. We further extend our approach to zero-shot singing voice conversion by incorporating fundamental frequency (F0) conditioning, resulting in comparative performance to current state-of-the-art methods. Our findings highlight the effectiveness of Seed-VC in overcoming core challenges, paving the way for more accurate and versatile voice conversion systems.

In this study, we tackle massively multilingual grapheme-to-phoneme conversion through implementing G2P models based on ByT5. We have curated a G2P dataset from various sources that covers around 100 languages and trained large-scale multilingual G2P models based on ByT5. We found that ByT5 operating on byte-level inputs significantly outperformed the token-based mT5 model in terms of multilingual G2P. Pairwise comparison with monolingual models in these languages suggests that multilingual ByT5 models generally lower the phone error rate by jointly learning from a variety of languages. The pretrained model can further benefit low resource G2P through zero-shot prediction on unseen languages or provides pretrained weights for finetuning, which helps the model converge to a lower phone error rate than randomly initialized weights. To facilitate future research on multilingual G2P, we make available our code and pretrained multilingual G2P models at: https://github.com/lingjzhu/CharsiuG2P.

Active matter systems, from self-propelled colloids to motile bacteria, are characterized by the conversion of free energy into useful work at the microscopic scale. These systems generically involve physics beyond the reach of equilibrium statistical mechanics, and a persistent challenge has been to understand the nature of their nonequilibrium states. The entropy production rate and the magnitude of the steady-state probability current provide quantitative ways to do so by measuring the breakdown of time-reversal symmetry and the strength of nonequilibrium transport of measure. Yet, their efficient computation has remained elusive, as they depend on the system's unknown and high-dimensional probability density. Here, building upon recent advances in generative modeling, we develop a deep learning framework that estimates the score of this density. We show that the score, together with the microscopic equations of motion, gives direct access to the entropy production rate, the probability current, and their decomposition into local contributions from individual particles, spatial regions, and degrees of freedom. To represent the score, we introduce a novel, spatially-local transformer-based network architecture that learns high-order interactions between particles while respecting their underlying permutation symmetry. We demonstrate the broad utility and scalability of the method by applying it to several high-dimensional systems of interacting active particles undergoing motility-induced phase separation (MIPS). We show that a single instance of our network trained on a system of 4096 particles at one packing fraction can generalize to other regions of the phase diagram, including systems with as many as 32768 particles. We use this observation to quantify the spatial structure of the departure from equilibrium in MIPS as a function of the number of particles and the packing fraction.

In speech generation tasks, human subjective ratings, usually referred to as the opinion score, are considered the "gold standard" for speech quality evaluation, with the mean opinion score (MOS) serving as the primary evaluation metric. Due to the high cost of human annotation, several MOS prediction systems have emerged in the speech domain, demonstrating good performance. These MOS prediction models are trained using annotations from previous speech-related challenges. However, compared to the speech domain, the singing domain faces data scarcity and stricter copyright protections, leading to a lack of high-quality MOS-annotated datasets for singing. To address this, we propose SingMOS, a high-quality and diverse MOS dataset for singing, covering a range of Chinese and Japanese datasets. These synthesized vocals are generated using state-of-the-art models in singing synthesis, conversion, or resynthesis tasks and are rated by professional annotators alongside real vocals. Data analysis demonstrates the diversity and reliability of our dataset. Additionally, we conduct further exploration on SingMOS, providing insights for singing MOS prediction and guidance for the continued expansion of SingMOS.

Tidal disruption events (TDEs), characterized by their luminous transients and high-velocity outflows, have emerged as plausible sources of high-energy neutrinos contributing to the diffuse neutrino. In this study, we calculate the contribution of TDEs to the diffuse neutrino by employing the outflow-cloud model within the TDE framework. Our analysis indicates that the contribution of TDEs becomes negligible when the redshift Z exceeds 2. Employing a set of fiducial values, which includes outflow energy E_{rm kin}=10^{51} erg, a proton spectrum cutoff energy E_{rm p,max}=100 PeV, a volume TDE rate N=8 times 10^{-7} rm Mpc^{-3} year^{-1}, covering fraction of clouds C_V=0.1, energy conversion efficiency in the shock eta =0.1, and a proton spectrum index Gamma=-1.7, we find that TDEs can account for approximately 80\% of the contribution at energies around 0.3 PeV. Additionally, TDEs still contribute around 18\% to the IceCube data below 0.1 PeV and the total contribution is sim 24^{+2}_{-15}%. In addition, we also discuss the potential influence of various parameter values on the results in detail. With the IceCube data, we impose constraints on the combination of the physical parameters, i.e., C_{f}=NE_{rm kin}C_{rm v}eta. Future observations or theoretical considerations would fix some physical parameters, which will help to constrain some individual parameters of TDEs.

We present Rapid Attention Distillation to Linear Attention Decoders at Scale (RADLADS), a protocol for rapidly converting softmax attention transformers into linear attention decoder models, along with two new RWKV-variant architectures, and models converted from popular Qwen2.5 open source models in 7B, 32B, and 72B sizes. Our conversion process requires only 350-700M tokens, less than 0.005% of the token count used to train the original teacher models. Converting to our 72B linear attention model costs less than \$2,000 USD at today's prices, yet quality at inference remains close to the original transformer. These models achieve state-of-the-art downstream performance across a set of standard benchmarks for linear attention models of their size. We release all our models on HuggingFace under the Apache 2.0 license, with the exception of our 72B models which are also governed by the Qwen License Agreement. Models at https://huggingface.co/collections/recursal/radlads-6818ee69e99e729ba8a87102 Training Code at https://github.com/recursal/RADLADS-paper