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Jul 29

SalesRLAgent: A Reinforcement Learning Approach for Real-Time Sales Conversion Prediction and Optimization

Current approaches to sales conversation analysis and conversion prediction typically rely on Large Language Models (LLMs) combined with basic retrieval augmented generation (RAG). These systems, while capable of answering questions, fail to accurately predict conversion probability or provide strategic guidance in real time. In this paper, we present SalesRLAgent, a novel framework leveraging specialized reinforcement learning to predict conversion probability throughout sales conversations. Unlike systems from Kapa.ai, Mendable, Inkeep, and others that primarily use off-the-shelf LLMs for content generation, our approach treats conversion prediction as a sequential decision problem, training on synthetic data generated using GPT-4O to develop a specialized probability estimation model. Our system incorporates Azure OpenAI embeddings (3072 dimensions), turn-by-turn state tracking, and meta-learning capabilities to understand its own knowledge boundaries. Evaluations demonstrate that SalesRLAgent achieves 96.7% accuracy in conversion prediction, outperforming LLM-only approaches by 34.7% while offering significantly faster inference (85ms vs 3450ms for GPT-4). Furthermore, integration with existing sales platforms shows a 43.2% increase in conversion rates when representatives utilize our system's real-time guidance. SalesRLAgent represents a fundamental shift from content generation to strategic sales intelligence, providing moment-by-moment conversion probability estimation with actionable insights for sales professionals.

Dynamic Pricing for Airline Ancillaries with Customer Context

Ancillaries have become a major source of revenue and profitability in the travel industry. Yet, conventional pricing strategies are based on business rules that are poorly optimized and do not respond to changing market conditions. This paper describes the dynamic pricing model developed by Deepair solutions, an AI technology provider for travel suppliers. We present a pricing model that provides dynamic pricing recommendations specific to each customer interaction and optimizes expected revenue per customer. The unique nature of personalized pricing provides the opportunity to search over the market space to find the optimal price-point of each ancillary for each customer, without violating customer privacy. In this paper, we present and compare three approaches for dynamic pricing of ancillaries, with increasing levels of sophistication: (1) a two-stage forecasting and optimization model using a logistic mapping function; (2) a two-stage model that uses a deep neural network for forecasting, coupled with a revenue maximization technique using discrete exhaustive search; (3) a single-stage end-to-end deep neural network that recommends the optimal price. We describe the performance of these models based on both offline and online evaluations. We also measure the real-world business impact of these approaches by deploying them in an A/B test on an airline's internet booking website. We show that traditional machine learning techniques outperform human rule-based approaches in an online setting by improving conversion by 36% and revenue per offer by 10%. We also provide results for our offline experiments which show that deep learning algorithms outperform traditional machine learning techniques for this problem. Our end-to-end deep learning model is currently being deployed by the airline in their booking system.

Aligning Language Models with Observational Data: Opportunities and Risks from a Causal Perspective

Large language models are being widely used across industries to generate content that contributes directly to key performance metrics, such as conversion rates. Pretrained models, however, often fall short when it comes to aligning with human preferences or optimizing for business objectives. As a result, fine-tuning with good-quality labeled data is essential to guide models to generate content that achieves better results. Controlled experiments, like A/B tests, can provide such data, but they are often expensive and come with significant engineering and logistical challenges. Meanwhile, companies have access to a vast amount of historical (observational) data that remains underutilized. In this work, we study the challenges and opportunities of fine-tuning LLMs using observational data. We show that while observational outcomes can provide valuable supervision, directly fine-tuning models on such data can lead them to learn spurious correlations. We present empirical evidence of this issue using various real-world datasets and propose DeconfoundLM, a method that explicitly removes the effect of known confounders from reward signals. Using simulation experiments, we demonstrate that DeconfoundLM improves the recovery of causal relationships and mitigates failure modes found in fine-tuning methods that ignore or naively incorporate confounding variables. Our findings highlight that while observational data presents risks, with the right causal corrections, it can be a powerful source of signal for LLM alignment. Please refer to the project page for code and related resources.

Deep learning probability flows and entropy production rates in active matter

Active matter systems, from self-propelled colloids to motile bacteria, are characterized by the conversion of free energy into useful work at the microscopic scale. These systems generically involve physics beyond the reach of equilibrium statistical mechanics, and a persistent challenge has been to understand the nature of their nonequilibrium states. The entropy production rate and the magnitude of the steady-state probability current provide quantitative ways to do so by measuring the breakdown of time-reversal symmetry and the strength of nonequilibrium transport of measure. Yet, their efficient computation has remained elusive, as they depend on the system's unknown and high-dimensional probability density. Here, building upon recent advances in generative modeling, we develop a deep learning framework that estimates the score of this density. We show that the score, together with the microscopic equations of motion, gives direct access to the entropy production rate, the probability current, and their decomposition into local contributions from individual particles, spatial regions, and degrees of freedom. To represent the score, we introduce a novel, spatially-local transformer-based network architecture that learns high-order interactions between particles while respecting their underlying permutation symmetry. We demonstrate the broad utility and scalability of the method by applying it to several high-dimensional systems of interacting active particles undergoing motility-induced phase separation (MIPS). We show that a single instance of our network trained on a system of 4096 particles at one packing fraction can generalize to other regions of the phase diagram, including systems with as many as 32768 particles. We use this observation to quantify the spatial structure of the departure from equilibrium in MIPS as a function of the number of particles and the packing fraction.

Entire Space Multi-Task Model: An Effective Approach for Estimating Post-Click Conversion Rate

Estimating post-click conversion rate (CVR) accurately is crucial for ranking systems in industrial applications such as recommendation and advertising. Conventional CVR modeling applies popular deep learning methods and achieves state-of-the-art performance. However it encounters several task-specific problems in practice, making CVR modeling challenging. For example, conventional CVR models are trained with samples of clicked impressions while utilized to make inference on the entire space with samples of all impressions. This causes a sample selection bias problem. Besides, there exists an extreme data sparsity problem, making the model fitting rather difficult. In this paper, we model CVR in a brand-new perspective by making good use of sequential pattern of user actions, i.e., impression -> click -> conversion. The proposed Entire Space Multi-task Model (ESMM) can eliminate the two problems simultaneously by i) modeling CVR directly over the entire space, ii) employing a feature representation transfer learning strategy. Experiments on dataset gathered from Taobao's recommender system demonstrate that ESMM significantly outperforms competitive methods. We also release a sampling version of this dataset to enable future research. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first public dataset which contains samples with sequential dependence of click and conversion labels for CVR modeling.

A study of a deterministic model for meningitis epidemic

A compartmental deterministic model that allows (1) immunity from two stages of infection and carriage, and (2) disease induced death, is used in studying the dynamics of meningitis epidemic process in a closed population. It allows for difference in the transmission rate of infection to a susceptible by a carrier and an infective. It is generalized to allow a proportion ({\phi}) of those susceptibles infected to progress directly to infectives in stage I. Both models are used in this study. The threshold conditions for the spread of carrier and infectives in stage I are derived for the two models. Sensitivity analysis is performed on the reproductive number derived from the next generation matrix. The case-carrier ratio profile for various parameters and threshold values are shown. So also are the graphs of the total number ever infected as influenced by {\epsilon} and {\phi}. The infection transmission rate (eta), the odds in favor of a carrier, over an infective, in transmitting an infection to a susceptible ({\epsilon}) and the carrier conversion rate ({\phi}) to an infective in stage I, are identified as key parameters that should be subject of attention for any control intervention strategy. The case-carrier ratio profiles provide evidence of a critical case-carrier ratio attained before the number of reported cases grows to an epidemic level. They also provide visual evidence of epidemiological context, in this case, epidemic incidence (in later part of dry season) and endemic incidence (during rainy season). Results from total proportion ever infected suggest that the model, in which {\phi}=0 obtained, can adequately represent, in essence, the generalized model for this study.

StableVC: Style Controllable Zero-Shot Voice Conversion with Conditional Flow Matching

Zero-shot voice conversion (VC) aims to transfer the timbre from the source speaker to an arbitrary unseen speaker while preserving the original linguistic content. Despite recent advancements in zero-shot VC using language model-based or diffusion-based approaches, several challenges remain: 1) current approaches primarily focus on adapting timbre from unseen speakers and are unable to transfer style and timbre to different unseen speakers independently; 2) these approaches often suffer from slower inference speeds due to the autoregressive modeling methods or the need for numerous sampling steps; 3) the quality and similarity of the converted samples are still not fully satisfactory. To address these challenges, we propose a style controllable zero-shot VC approach named StableVC, which aims to transfer timbre and style from source speech to different unseen target speakers. Specifically, we decompose speech into linguistic content, timbre, and style, and then employ a conditional flow matching module to reconstruct the high-quality mel-spectrogram based on these decomposed features. To effectively capture timbre and style in a zero-shot manner, we introduce a novel dual attention mechanism with an adaptive gate, rather than using conventional feature concatenation. With this non-autoregressive design, StableVC can efficiently capture the intricate timbre and style from different unseen speakers and generate high-quality speech significantly faster than real-time. Experiments demonstrate that our proposed StableVC outperforms state-of-the-art baseline systems in zero-shot VC and achieves flexible control over timbre and style from different unseen speakers. Moreover, StableVC offers approximately 25x and 1.65x faster sampling compared to autoregressive and diffusion-based baselines.

neural concatenative singing voice conversion: rethinking concatenation-based approach for one-shot singing voice conversion

Any-to-any singing voice conversion is confronted with a significant challenge of ``timbre leakage'' issue caused by inadequate disentanglement between the content and the speaker timbre. To address this issue, this study introduces a novel neural concatenative singing voice conversion (NeuCoSVC) framework. The NeuCoSVC framework comprises a self-supervised learning (SSL) representation extractor, a neural harmonic signal generator, and a waveform synthesizer. Specifically, the SSL extractor condenses the audio into a sequence of fixed-dimensional SSL features. The harmonic signal generator produces both raw and filtered harmonic signals as the pitch information by leveraging a linear time-varying (LTV) filter. Finally, the audio generator reconstructs the audio waveform based on the SSL features, as well as the harmonic signals and the loudness information. During inference, the system performs voice conversion by substituting source SSL features with their nearest counterparts from a matching pool, which comprises SSL representations extracted from the target audio, while the raw harmonic signals and the loudness are extracted from the source audio and are kept unchanged. Since the utilized SSL features in the conversion stage are directly from the target audio, the proposed framework has great potential to address the ``timbre leakage'' issue caused by previous disentanglement-based approaches. Experimental results confirm that the proposed system delivers much better performance than the speaker embedding approach (disentanglement-based) in the context of one-shot SVC across intra-language, cross-language, and cross-domain evaluations.

StreamVoice: Streamable Context-Aware Language Modeling for Real-time Zero-Shot Voice Conversion

Recent language model (LM) advancements have showcased impressive zero-shot voice conversion (VC) performance. However, existing LM-based VC models usually apply offline conversion from source semantics to acoustic features, demanding the complete source speech, and limiting their deployment to real-time applications. In this paper, we introduce StreamVoice, a novel streaming LM-based model for zero-shot VC, facilitating real-time conversion given arbitrary speaker prompts and source speech. Specifically, to enable streaming capability, StreamVoice employs a fully causal context-aware LM with a temporal-independent acoustic predictor, while alternately processing semantic and acoustic features at each time step of autoregression which eliminates the dependence on complete source speech. To address the potential performance degradation from the incomplete context in streaming processing, we enhance the context-awareness of the LM through two strategies: 1) teacher-guided context foresight, using a teacher model to summarize the present and future semantic context during training to guide the model's forecasting for missing context; 2) semantic masking strategy, promoting acoustic prediction from preceding corrupted semantic and acoustic input, enhancing context-learning ability. Notably, StreamVoice is the first LM-based streaming zero-shot VC model without any future look-ahead. Experimental results demonstrate StreamVoice's streaming conversion capability while maintaining zero-shot performance comparable to non-streaming VC systems.

Adversarial Approximate Inference for Speech to Electroglottograph Conversion

Speech produced by human vocal apparatus conveys substantial non-semantic information including the gender of the speaker, voice quality, affective state, abnormalities in the vocal apparatus etc. Such information is attributed to the properties of the voice source signal, which is usually estimated from the speech signal. However, most of the source estimation techniques depend heavily on the goodness of the model assumptions and are prone to noise. A popular alternative is to indirectly obtain the source information through the Electroglottographic (EGG) signal that measures the electrical admittance around the vocal folds using dedicated hardware. In this paper, we address the problem of estimating the EGG signal directly from the speech signal, devoid of any hardware. Sampling from the intractable conditional distribution of the EGG signal given the speech signal is accomplished through optimization of an evidence lower bound. This is constructed via minimization of the KL-divergence between the true and the approximated posteriors of a latent variable learned using a deep neural auto-encoder that serves an informative prior. We demonstrate the efficacy of the method at generating the EGG signal by conducting several experiments on datasets comprising multiple speakers, voice qualities, noise settings and speech pathologies. The proposed method is evaluated on many benchmark metrics and is found to agree with the gold standard while proving better than the state-of-the-art algorithms on a few tasks such as epoch extraction.

ITCFN: Incomplete Triple-Modal Co-Attention Fusion Network for Mild Cognitive Impairment Conversion Prediction

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a common neurodegenerative disease among the elderly. Early prediction and timely intervention of its prodromal stage, mild cognitive impairment (MCI), can decrease the risk of advancing to AD. Combining information from various modalities can significantly improve predictive accuracy. However, challenges such as missing data and heterogeneity across modalities complicate multimodal learning methods as adding more modalities can worsen these issues. Current multimodal fusion techniques often fail to adapt to the complexity of medical data, hindering the ability to identify relationships between modalities. To address these challenges, we propose an innovative multimodal approach for predicting MCI conversion, focusing specifically on the issues of missing positron emission tomography (PET) data and integrating diverse medical information. The proposed incomplete triple-modal MCI conversion prediction network is tailored for this purpose. Through the missing modal generation module, we synthesize the missing PET data from the magnetic resonance imaging and extract features using specifically designed encoders. We also develop a channel aggregation module and a triple-modal co-attention fusion module to reduce feature redundancy and achieve effective multimodal data fusion. Furthermore, we design a loss function to handle missing modality issues and align cross-modal features. These components collectively harness multimodal data to boost network performance. Experimental results on the ADNI1 and ADNI2 datasets show that our method significantly surpasses existing unimodal and other multimodal models. Our code is available at https://github.com/justinhxy/ITFC.

DDDM-VC: Decoupled Denoising Diffusion Models with Disentangled Representation and Prior Mixup for Verified Robust Voice Conversion

Diffusion-based generative models have exhibited powerful generative performance in recent years. However, as many attributes exist in the data distribution and owing to several limitations of sharing the model parameters across all levels of the generation process, it remains challenging to control specific styles for each attribute. To address the above problem, this paper presents decoupled denoising diffusion models (DDDMs) with disentangled representations, which can control the style for each attribute in generative models. We apply DDDMs to voice conversion (VC) tasks to address the challenges of disentangling and controlling each speech attribute (e.g., linguistic information, intonation, and timbre). First, we use a self-supervised representation to disentangle the speech representation. Subsequently, the DDDMs are applied to resynthesize the speech from the disentangled representations for denoising with respect to each attribute. Moreover, we also propose the prior mixup for robust voice style transfer, which uses the converted representation of the mixed style as a prior distribution for the diffusion models. The experimental results reveal that our method outperforms publicly available VC models. Furthermore, we show that our method provides robust generative performance regardless of the model size. Audio samples are available https://hayeong0.github.io/DDDM-VC-demo/.

Adversarial Speaker Disentanglement Using Unannotated External Data for Self-supervised Representation Based Voice Conversion

Nowadays, recognition-synthesis-based methods have been quite popular with voice conversion (VC). By introducing linguistics features with good disentangling characters extracted from an automatic speech recognition (ASR) model, the VC performance achieved considerable breakthroughs. Recently, self-supervised learning (SSL) methods trained with a large-scale unannotated speech corpus have been applied to downstream tasks focusing on the content information, which is suitable for VC tasks. However, a huge amount of speaker information in SSL representations degrades timbre similarity and the quality of converted speech significantly. To address this problem, we proposed a high-similarity any-to-one voice conversion method with the input of SSL representations. We incorporated adversarial training mechanisms in the synthesis module using external unannotated corpora. Two auxiliary discriminators were trained to distinguish whether a sequence of mel-spectrograms has been converted by the acoustic model and whether a sequence of content embeddings contains speaker information from external corpora. Experimental results show that our proposed method achieves comparable similarity and higher naturalness than the supervised method, which needs a huge amount of annotated corpora for training and is applicable to improve similarity for VC methods with other SSL representations as input.

nnAudio: An on-the-fly GPU Audio to Spectrogram Conversion Toolbox Using 1D Convolution Neural Networks

Converting time domain waveforms to frequency domain spectrograms is typically considered to be a prepossessing step done before model training. This approach, however, has several drawbacks. First, it takes a lot of hard disk space to store different frequency domain representations. This is especially true during the model development and tuning process, when exploring various types of spectrograms for optimal performance. Second, if another dataset is used, one must process all the audio clips again before the network can be retrained. In this paper, we integrate the time domain to frequency domain conversion as part of the model structure, and propose a neural network based toolbox, nnAudio, which leverages 1D convolutional neural networks to perform time domain to frequency domain conversion during feed-forward. It allows on-the-fly spectrogram generation without the need to store any spectrograms on the disk. This approach also allows back-propagation on the waveforms-to-spectrograms transformation layer, which implies that this transformation process can be made trainable, and hence further optimized by gradient descent. nnAudio reduces the waveforms-to-spectrograms conversion time for 1,770 waveforms (from the MAPS dataset) from 10.64 seconds with librosa to only 0.001 seconds for Short-Time Fourier Transform (STFT), 18.3 seconds to 0.015 seconds for Mel spectrogram, 103.4 seconds to 0.258 for constant-Q transform (CQT), when using GPU on our DGX work station with CPU: Intel(R) Xeon(R) CPU E5-2698 v4 @ 2.20GHz Tesla v100 32Gb GPUs. (Only 1 GPU is being used for all the experiments.) We also further optimize the existing CQT algorithm, so that the CQT spectrogram can be obtained without aliasing in a much faster computation time (from 0.258 seconds to only 0.001 seconds).

Mono2Stereo: A Benchmark and Empirical Study for Stereo Conversion

With the rapid proliferation of 3D devices and the shortage of 3D content, stereo conversion is attracting increasing attention. Recent works introduce pretrained Diffusion Models (DMs) into this task. However, due to the scarcity of large-scale training data and comprehensive benchmarks, the optimal methodologies for employing DMs in stereo conversion and the accurate evaluation of stereo effects remain largely unexplored. In this work, we introduce the Mono2Stereo dataset, providing high-quality training data and benchmark to support in-depth exploration of stereo conversion. With this dataset, we conduct an empirical study that yields two primary findings. 1) The differences between the left and right views are subtle, yet existing metrics consider overall pixels, failing to concentrate on regions critical to stereo effects. 2) Mainstream methods adopt either one-stage left-to-right generation or warp-and-inpaint pipeline, facing challenges of degraded stereo effect and image distortion respectively. Based on these findings, we introduce a new evaluation metric, Stereo Intersection-over-Union, which prioritizes disparity and achieves a high correlation with human judgments on stereo effect. Moreover, we propose a strong baseline model, harmonizing the stereo effect and image quality simultaneously, and notably surpassing current mainstream methods. Our code and data will be open-sourced to promote further research in stereo conversion. Our models are available at mono2stereo-bench.github.io.

Adaptive Pattern Extraction Multi-Task Learning for Multi-Step Conversion Estimations

Multi-task learning (MTL) has been successfully used in many real-world applications, which aims to simultaneously solve multiple tasks with a single model. The general idea of multi-task learning is designing kinds of global parameter sharing mechanism and task-specific feature extractor to improve the performance of all tasks. However, challenge still remains in balancing the trade-off of various tasks since model performance is sensitive to the relationships between them. Less correlated or even conflict tasks will deteriorate the performance by introducing unhelpful or negative information. Therefore, it is important to efficiently exploit and learn fine-grained feature representation corresponding to each task. In this paper, we propose an Adaptive Pattern Extraction Multi-task (APEM) framework, which is adaptive and flexible for large-scale industrial application. APEM is able to fully utilize the feature information by learning the interactions between the input feature fields and extracted corresponding tasks-specific information. We first introduce a DeepAuto Group Transformer module to automatically and efficiently enhance the feature expressivity with a modified set attention mechanism and a Squeeze-and-Excitation operation. Second, explicit Pattern Selector is introduced to further enable selectively feature representation learning by adaptive task-indicator vectors. Empirical evaluations show that APEM outperforms the state-of-the-art MTL methods on public and real-world financial services datasets. More importantly, we explore the online performance of APEM in a real industrial-level recommendation scenario.

Progressive Volume Distillation with Active Learning for Efficient NeRF Architecture Conversion

Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF) have been widely adopted as practical and versatile representations for 3D scenes, facilitating various downstream tasks. However, different architectures, including the plain Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Tensors, low-rank Tensors, Hashtables, and their combinations, entail distinct trade-offs. For instance, representations based on Hashtables enable faster rendering but lack clear geometric meaning, thereby posing challenges for spatial-relation-aware editing. To address this limitation and maximize the potential of each architecture, we propose Progressive Volume Distillation with Active Learning (PVD-AL), a systematic distillation method that enables any-to-any conversion between diverse architectures. PVD-AL decomposes each structure into two parts and progressively performs distillation from shallower to deeper volume representation, leveraging effective information retrieved from the rendering process. Additionally, a three-level active learning technique provides continuous feedback from teacher to student during the distillation process, achieving high-performance outcomes. Experimental evidence showcases the effectiveness of our method across multiple benchmark datasets. For instance, PVD-AL can distill an MLP-based model from a Hashtables-based model at a 10~20X faster speed and 0.8dB~2dB higher PSNR than training the MLP-based model from scratch. Moreover, PVD-AL permits the fusion of diverse features among distinct structures, enabling models with multiple editing properties and providing a more efficient model to meet real-time requirements like mobile devices. Project website: https://sk-fun.fun/PVD-AL.

WESPER: Zero-shot and Realtime Whisper to Normal Voice Conversion for Whisper-based Speech Interactions

Recognizing whispered speech and converting it to normal speech creates many possibilities for speech interaction. Because the sound pressure of whispered speech is significantly lower than that of normal speech, it can be used as a semi-silent speech interaction in public places without being audible to others. Converting whispers to normal speech also improves the speech quality for people with speech or hearing impairments. However, conventional speech conversion techniques do not provide sufficient conversion quality or require speaker-dependent datasets consisting of pairs of whispered and normal speech utterances. To address these problems, we propose WESPER, a zero-shot, real-time whisper-to-normal speech conversion mechanism based on self-supervised learning. WESPER consists of a speech-to-unit (STU) encoder, which generates hidden speech units common to both whispered and normal speech, and a unit-to-speech (UTS) decoder, which reconstructs speech from the encoded speech units. Unlike the existing methods, this conversion is user-independent and does not require a paired dataset for whispered and normal speech. The UTS decoder can reconstruct speech in any target speaker's voice from speech units, and it requires only an unlabeled target speaker's speech data. We confirmed that the quality of the speech converted from a whisper was improved while preserving its natural prosody. Additionally, we confirmed the effectiveness of the proposed approach to perform speech reconstruction for people with speech or hearing disabilities. (project page: http://lab.rekimoto.org/projects/wesper )