Daily Papers

Recent breakthroughs in large language modeling have facilitated rigorous exploration of their application in diverse tasks related to tabular data modeling, such as prediction, tabular data synthesis, question answering, and table understanding. Each task presents unique challenges and opportunities. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive review that summarizes and compares the key techniques, metrics, datasets, models, and optimization approaches in this research domain. This survey aims to address this gap by consolidating recent progress in these areas, offering a thorough survey and taxonomy of the datasets, metrics, and methodologies utilized. It identifies strengths, limitations, unexplored territories, and gaps in the existing literature, while providing some insights for future research directions in this vital and rapidly evolving field. It also provides relevant code and datasets references. Through this comprehensive review, we hope to provide interested readers with pertinent references and insightful perspectives, empowering them with the necessary tools and knowledge to effectively navigate and address the prevailing challenges in the field.

In recent years, medical information technology has made it possible for electronic health record (EHR) to store fairly complete clinical data. This has brought health care into the era of "big data". However, medical data are often sparse and strongly correlated, which means that medical problems cannot be solved effectively. With the rapid development of deep learning in recent years, it has provided opportunities for the use of big data in healthcare. In this paper, we propose a temporal-saptial correlation attention network (TSCAN) to handle some clinical characteristic prediction problems, such as predicting death, predicting length of stay, detecting physiologic decline, and classifying phenotypes. Based on the design of the attention mechanism model, our approach can effectively remove irrelevant items in clinical data and irrelevant nodes in time according to different tasks, so as to obtain more accurate prediction results. Our method can also find key clinical indicators of important outcomes that can be used to improve treatment options. Our experiments use information from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-IV) database, which is open to the public. Finally, we have achieved significant performance benefits of 2.0\% (metric) compared to other SOTA prediction methods. We achieved a staggering 90.7\% on mortality rate, 45.1\% on length of stay. The source code can be find: https://github.com/yuyuheintju/TSCAN.

Quantum reservoir computing is strongly emerging for sequential and time series data prediction in quantum machine learning. We make advancements to the quantum noise-induced reservoir, in which reservoir noise is used as a resource to generate expressive, nonlinear signals that are efficiently learned with a single linear output layer. We address the need for quantum reservoir tuning with a novel and generally applicable approach to quantum circuit parameterization, in which tunable noise models are programmed to the quantum reservoir circuit to be fully controlled for effective optimization. Our systematic approach also involves reductions in quantum reservoir circuits in the number of qubits and entanglement scheme complexity. We show that with only a single noise model and small memory capacities, excellent simulation results were obtained on nonlinear benchmarks that include the Mackey-Glass system for 100 steps ahead in the challenging chaotic regime.

The transferability of deep neural networks (DNNs) has made significant progress in image and language processing. However, due to the heterogeneity among tables, such DNN bonus is still far from being well exploited on tabular data prediction (e.g., regression or classification tasks). Condensing knowledge from diverse domains, language models (LMs) possess the capability to comprehend feature names from various tables, potentially serving as versatile learners in transferring knowledge across distinct tables and diverse prediction tasks, but their discrete text representation space is inherently incompatible with numerical feature values in tables. In this paper, we present TP-BERTa, a specifically pre-trained LM for tabular data prediction. Concretely, a novel relative magnitude tokenization converts scalar numerical feature values to finely discrete, high-dimensional tokens, and an intra-feature attention approach integrates feature values with the corresponding feature names. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that our pre-trained TP-BERTa leads the performance among tabular DNNs and is competitive with Gradient Boosted Decision Tree models in typical tabular data regime.

Tabular data -- structured, heterogeneous, spreadsheet-style data with rows and columns -- is widely used in practice across many domains. However, while recent foundation models have reduced the need for developing task-specific datasets and predictors in domains such as language modeling and computer vision, this transfer learning paradigm has not had similar impact in the tabular domain. In this work, we seek to narrow this gap and present TabuLa-8B, a language model for tabular prediction. We define a process for extracting a large, high-quality training dataset from the TabLib corpus, proposing methods for tabular data filtering and quality control. Using the resulting dataset, which comprises over 1.6B rows from 3.1M unique tables, we fine-tune a Llama 3-8B large language model (LLM) for tabular data prediction (classification and binned regression) using a novel packing and attention scheme for tabular prediction. Through evaluation across a test suite of 329 datasets, we find that TabuLa-8B has zero-shot accuracy on unseen tables that is over 15 percentage points (pp) higher than random guessing, a feat that is not possible with existing state-of-the-art tabular prediction models (e.g. XGBoost, TabPFN). In the few-shot setting (1-32 shots), without any fine-tuning on the target datasets, TabuLa-8B is 5-15 pp more accurate than XGBoost and TabPFN models that are explicitly trained on equal, or even up to 16x more data. We release our model, code, and data along with the publication of this paper.

Data organized in tabular format is ubiquitous in real-world applications, and users often craft tables with biased feature definitions and flexibly set prediction targets of their interests. Thus, a rapid development of a robust, effective, dataset-versatile, user-friendly tabular prediction approach is highly desired. While Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDTs) and existing deep neural networks (DNNs) have been extensively utilized by professional users, they present several challenges for casual users, particularly: (i) the dilemma of model selection due to their different dataset preferences, and (ii) the need for heavy hyperparameter searching, failing which their performances are deemed inadequate. In this paper, we delve into this question: Can we develop a deep learning model that serves as a "sure bet" solution for a wide range of tabular prediction tasks, while also being user-friendly for casual users? We delve into three key drawbacks of deep tabular models, encompassing: (P1) lack of rotational variance property, (P2) large data demand, and (P3) over-smooth solution. We propose ExcelFormer, addressing these challenges through a semi-permeable attention module that effectively constrains the influence of less informative features to break the DNNs' rotational invariance property (for P1), data augmentation approaches tailored for tabular data (for P2), and attentive feedforward network to boost the model fitting capability (for P3). These designs collectively make ExcelFormer a "sure bet" solution for diverse tabular datasets. Extensive and stratified experiments conducted on real-world datasets demonstrate that our model outperforms previous approaches across diverse tabular data prediction tasks, and this framework can be friendly to casual users, offering ease of use without the heavy hyperparameter tuning.

Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) followed by preference optimization (PO) denoted by SFTrightarrowPO has become the standard for improving pretrained large language models (LLMs), with PO demonstrating significant performance gains. However, PO methods rely on either human-labeled preference data or a strong reward model to generate preference data. Can we fine-tune LLMs without preference data or reward models while achieving competitive performance to SFTrightarrowPO? We address this question by introducing Discriminative Fine-Tuning (DFT), a novel approach that eliminates the need for preference data. Unlike SFT, which employs a generative approach and overlooks negative data, DFT adopts a discriminative paradigm that that increases the probability of positive answers while suppressing potentially negative ones, shifting from token prediction to data prediction. Our contributions include: (i) a discriminative probabilistic framework for fine-tuning LLMs by explicitly modeling the discriminative likelihood of an answer among all possible outputs given an input; (ii) efficient algorithms to optimize this discriminative likelihood; and (iii) extensive experiments demonstrating DFT's effectiveness, achieving performance better than SFT and comparable to if not better than SFTrightarrowPO. The code can be found at https://github.com/PenGuln/DFT.

Tabular data prediction is a fundamental machine learning task for many applications. Existing methods predominantly employ discriminative modeling and operate under the assumption of a fixed target column, necessitating re-training for every new predictive task. Inspired by the generative power of large language models (LLMs), this paper exploits the idea of building universal tabular data predictors based on generative modeling, namely UniPredict. Here, we demonstrate the scalability of an LLM to extensive tabular datasets, enabling it to comprehend diverse tabular inputs and predict target variables following the provided instructions. Specifically, we train a single LLM on an aggregation of 169 tabular datasets with diverse targets and compare its performance against baselines that are trained on each dataset separately. We observe this versatile UniPredict model demonstrates an advantage over other models, ranging from 5.4% to 13.4%, when compared with the best tree-boosting baseline and the best neural network baseline, respectively. We further test UniPredict in few-shot learning settings on another 62 tabular datasets. Our method achieves strong performance in quickly adapting to new tasks. In low-resource few-shot setup, we observed a 100%+ performance advantage compared with XGBoost, and significant margin over all baselines. We envision that UniPredict sheds light on developing a universal tabular data prediction system that learns from data at scale and serves a wide range of prediction tasks.

This paper proposes a generative speech enhancement model based on Schr\"odinger bridge (SB). The proposed model is employing a tractable SB to formulate a data-to-data process between the clean speech distribution and the observed noisy speech distribution. The model is trained with a data prediction loss, aiming to recover the complex-valued clean speech coefficients, and an auxiliary time-domain loss is used to improve training of the model. The effectiveness of the proposed SB-based model is evaluated in two different speech enhancement tasks: speech denoising and speech dereverberation. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed SB-based outperforms diffusion-based models in terms of speech quality metrics and ASR performance, e.g., resulting in relative word error rate reduction of 20% for denoising and 6% for dereverberation compared to the best baseline model. The proposed model also demonstrates improved efficiency, achieving better quality than the baselines for the same number of sampling steps and with a reduced computational cost.

Predicting the future is of great interest across many aspects of human activity. Businesses are interested in future trends, traders are interested in future stock prices, and companies are highly interested in future technological breakthroughs. While there are many automated systems for predicting future numerical data, such as weather, stock prices, and demand for products, there is relatively little work in automatically predicting textual data. Humans are interested in textual data predictions because it is a natural format for our consumption, and experts routinely make predictions in a textual format (Christensen et al., 2004; Tetlock & Gardner, 2015; Frick, 2015). However, there has been relatively little formalization of this general problem in the machine learning or natural language processing communities. To address this gap, we introduce the task of future language modeling: probabilistic modeling of texts in the future based on a temporal history of texts. To our knowledge, our work is the first work to formalize the task of predicting the future in this way. We show that it is indeed possible to build future language models that improve upon strong non-temporal language model baselines, opening the door to working on this important, and widely applicable problem.

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have achieved impressive success in high-resolution image synthesis, especially in recent large-scale text-to-image generation applications. An essential technique for improving the sample quality of DPMs is guided sampling, which usually needs a large guidance scale to obtain the best sample quality. The commonly-used fast sampler for guided sampling is DDIM, a first-order diffusion ODE solver that generally needs 100 to 250 steps for high-quality samples. Although recent works propose dedicated high-order solvers and achieve a further speedup for sampling without guidance, their effectiveness for guided sampling has not been well-tested before. In this work, we demonstrate that previous high-order fast samplers suffer from instability issues, and they even become slower than DDIM when the guidance scale grows large. To further speed up guided sampling, we propose DPM-Solver++, a high-order solver for the guided sampling of DPMs. DPM-Solver++ solves the diffusion ODE with the data prediction model and adopts thresholding methods to keep the solution matches training data distribution. We further propose a multistep variant of DPM-Solver++ to address the instability issue by reducing the effective step size. Experiments show that DPM-Solver++ can generate high-quality samples within only 15 to 20 steps for guided sampling by pixel-space and latent-space DPMs.

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have exhibited excellent performance for high-fidelity image generation while suffering from inefficient sampling. Recent works accelerate the sampling procedure by proposing fast ODE solvers that leverage the specific ODE form of DPMs. However, they highly rely on specific parameterization during inference (such as noise/data prediction), which might not be the optimal choice. In this work, we propose a novel formulation towards the optimal parameterization during sampling that minimizes the first-order discretization error of the ODE solution. Based on such formulation, we propose DPM-Solver-v3, a new fast ODE solver for DPMs by introducing several coefficients efficiently computed on the pretrained model, which we call empirical model statistics. We further incorporate multistep methods and a predictor-corrector framework, and propose some techniques for improving sample quality at small numbers of function evaluations (NFE) or large guidance scales. Experiments show that DPM-Solver-v3 achieves consistently better or comparable performance in both unconditional and conditional sampling with both pixel-space and latent-space DPMs, especially in 5sim10 NFEs. We achieve FIDs of 12.21 (5 NFE), 2.51 (10 NFE) on unconditional CIFAR10, and MSE of 0.55 (5 NFE, 7.5 guidance scale) on Stable Diffusion, bringing a speed-up of 15\%sim30\% compared to previous state-of-the-art training-free methods. Code is available at https://github.com/thu-ml/DPM-Solver-v3.

We propose PROSE-FD, a zero-shot multimodal PDE foundational model for simultaneous prediction of heterogeneous two-dimensional physical systems related to distinct fluid dynamics settings. These systems include shallow water equations and the Navier-Stokes equations with incompressible and compressible flow, regular and complex geometries, and different buoyancy settings. This work presents a new transformer-based multi-operator learning approach that fuses symbolic information to perform operator-based data prediction, i.e. non-autoregressive. By incorporating multiple modalities in the inputs, the PDE foundation model builds in a pathway for including mathematical descriptions of the physical behavior. We pre-train our foundation model on 6 parametric families of equations collected from 13 datasets, including over 60K trajectories. Our model outperforms popular operator learning, computer vision, and multi-physics models, in benchmark forward prediction tasks. We test our architecture choices with ablation studies.

Previous literature offers limited clues on how to learn a periodic function using modern neural networks. We start with a study of the extrapolation properties of neural networks; we prove and demonstrate experimentally that the standard activations functions, such as ReLU, tanh, sigmoid, along with their variants, all fail to learn to extrapolate simple periodic functions. We hypothesize that this is due to their lack of a "periodic" inductive bias. As a fix of this problem, we propose a new activation, namely, x + sin^2(x), which achieves the desired periodic inductive bias to learn a periodic function while maintaining a favorable optimization property of the ReLU-based activations. Experimentally, we apply the proposed method to temperature and financial data prediction.

In applications of diffusion models, controllable generation is of practical significance, but is also challenging. Current methods for controllable generation primarily focus on modifying the score function of diffusion models, while Mean Reverting (MR) Diffusion directly modifies the structure of the stochastic differential equation (SDE), making the incorporation of image conditions simpler and more natural. However, current training-free fast samplers are not directly applicable to MR Diffusion. And thus MR Diffusion requires hundreds of NFEs (number of function evaluations) to obtain high-quality samples. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm named MRS (MR Sampler) to reduce the sampling NFEs of MR Diffusion. We solve the reverse-time SDE and the probability flow ordinary differential equation (PF-ODE) associated with MR Diffusion, and derive semi-analytical solutions. The solutions consist of an analytical function and an integral parameterized by a neural network. Based on this solution, we can generate high-quality samples in fewer steps. Our approach does not require training and supports all mainstream parameterizations, including noise prediction, data prediction and velocity prediction. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MR Sampler maintains high sampling quality with a speedup of 10 to 20 times across ten different image restoration tasks. Our algorithm accelerates the sampling procedure of MR Diffusion, making it more practical in controllable generation.

Tabular data is one of the most common data sources in machine learning. Although a wide range of classical methods demonstrate practical utilities in this field, deep learning methods on tabular data are becoming promising alternatives due to their flexibility and ability to capture complex interactions within the data. Considering that deep tabular methods have diverse design philosophies, including the ways they handle features, design learning objectives, and construct model architectures, we introduce a versatile deep-learning toolbox called TALENT (Tabular Analytics and LEarNing Toolbox) to utilize, analyze, and compare tabular methods. TALENT encompasses an extensive collection of more than 20 deep tabular prediction methods, associated with various encoding and normalization modules, and provides a unified interface that is easily integrable with new methods as they emerge. In this paper, we present the design and functionality of the toolbox, illustrate its practical application through several case studies, and investigate the performance of various methods fairly based on our toolbox. Code is available at https://github.com/qile2000/LAMDA-TALENT.

Dataset distillation has become a popular method for compressing large datasets into smaller, more efficient representations while preserving critical information for model training. Data features are broadly categorized into two types: instance-specific features, which capture unique, fine-grained details of individual examples, and class-general features, which represent shared, broad patterns across a class. However, previous approaches often struggle to balance these features-some focus solely on class-general patterns, neglecting finer instance details, while others prioritize instance-specific features, overlooking the shared characteristics essential for class-level understanding. In this paper, we introduce the Non-Critical Region Refinement Dataset Distillation (NRR-DD) method, which preserves instance-specific details and fine-grained regions in synthetic data while enriching non-critical regions with class-general information. This approach enables models to leverage all pixel information, capturing both feature types and enhancing overall performance. Additionally, we present Distance-Based Representative (DBR) knowledge transfer, which eliminates the need for soft labels in training by relying on the distance between synthetic data predictions and one-hot encoded labels. Experimental results show that NRR-DD achieves state-of-the-art performance on both small- and large-scale datasets. Furthermore, by storing only two distances per instance, our method delivers comparable results across various settings. The code is available at https://github.com/tmtuan1307/NRR-DD.

World models for autonomous driving have the potential to dramatically improve the reasoning capabilities of today's systems. However, most works focus on camera data, with only a few that leverage lidar data or combine both to better represent autonomous vehicle sensor setups. In addition, raw sensor predictions are less actionable than 3D occupancy predictions, but there are no works examining the effects of combining both multimodal sensor data and 3D occupancy prediction. In this work, we perform a set of experiments with a MUltimodal World Model with Geometric VOxel representations (MUVO) to evaluate different sensor fusion strategies to better understand the effects on sensor data prediction. We also analyze potential weaknesses of current sensor fusion approaches and examine the benefits of additionally predicting 3D occupancy.

This paper introduces a new approach to using Large Language Models (LLMs) for classification tasks, which are typically handled using Machine Learning (ML) models. Unlike ML models that rely heavily on data cleaning and feature engineering, this method streamlines the process using LLMs. This paper proposes a new concept called "Language Model Learning (LML)" powered by a new method called "Data-Augmented Prediction (DAP)". The classification is performed by LLMs using a method similar to humans manually exploring and understanding the data and deciding classifications using data as a reference. Training data is summarized and evaluated to determine the features that lead to the classification of each label the most. In the process of DAP, the system uses the data summary to automatically create a query, which is used to retrieve relevant rows from the dataset. A classification is generated by the LLM using data summary and relevant rows, ensuring satisfactory accuracy even with complex data. Usage of data summary and similar data in DAP ensures context-aware decision-making. The proposed method uses the words "Act as an Explainable Machine Learning Model" in the prompt to enhance the interpretability of the predictions by allowing users to review the logic behind each prediction. In some test cases, the system scored an accuracy above 90%, proving the effectiveness of the system and its potential to outperform conventional ML models in various scenarios. The code is available at https://github.com/Pro-GenAI/LML-DAP

Large amounts of training data are one of the major reasons for the high performance of state-of-the-art NLP models. But what exactly in the training data causes a model to make a certain prediction? We seek to answer this question by providing a language for describing how training data influences predictions, through a causal framework. Importantly, our framework bypasses the need to retrain expensive models and allows us to estimate causal effects based on observational data alone. Addressing the problem of extracting factual knowledge from pretrained language models (PLMs), we focus on simple data statistics such as co-occurrence counts and show that these statistics do influence the predictions of PLMs, suggesting that such models rely on shallow heuristics. Our causal framework and our results demonstrate the importance of studying datasets and the benefits of causality for understanding NLP models.

In the present research, we delve into the intricate realm of electroencephalogram (EEG) data analysis, focusing on sequence-to-sequence prediction of data across 32 EEG channels. The study harmoniously fuses the principles of applied chaos theory and dynamical systems theory to engender a novel feature set, enriching the representational capacity of our deep learning model. The endeavour's cornerstone is a transformer-based sequence-to-sequence architecture, calibrated meticulously to capture the non-linear and high-dimensional temporal dependencies inherent in EEG sequences. Through judicious architecture design, parameter initialisation strategies, and optimisation techniques, we have navigated the intricate balance between computational expediency and predictive performance. Our model stands as a vanguard in EEG data sequence prediction, demonstrating remarkable generalisability and robustness. The findings not only extend our understanding of EEG data dynamics but also unveil a potent analytical framework that can be adapted to diverse temporal sequence prediction tasks in neuroscience and beyond.

We propose a method to optimize language model pre-training data mixtures through efficient approximation of the cross-entropy loss corresponding to each candidate mixture via a Mixture of Data Experts (MDE). We use this approximation as a source of additional features in a regression model, trained from observations of model loss for a small number of mixtures. Experiments with Transformer decoder-only language models in the range of 70M to 1B parameters on the SlimPajama dataset show that our method achieves significantly better performance than approaches that train regression models using only the mixture rates as input features. Combining this improved optimization method with an objective that takes into account cross-entropy on end task data leads to superior performance on few-shot downstream evaluations. We also provide theoretical insights on why aggregation of data expert predictions can provide good approximations to model losses for data mixtures.

The design of modern recommender systems relies on understanding which parts of the feature space are relevant for solving a given recommendation task. However, real-world data sets in this domain are often characterized by their large size, sparsity, and noise, making it challenging to identify meaningful signals. Feature ranking represents an efficient branch of algorithms that can help address these challenges by identifying the most informative features and facilitating the automated search for more compact and better-performing models (AutoML). We introduce OutRank, a system for versatile feature ranking and data quality-related anomaly detection. OutRank was built with categorical data in mind, utilizing a variant of mutual information that is normalized with regard to the noise produced by features of the same cardinality. We further extend the similarity measure by incorporating information on feature similarity and combined relevance. The proposed approach's feasibility is demonstrated by speeding up the state-of-the-art AutoML system on a synthetic data set with no performance loss. Furthermore, we considered a real-life click-through-rate prediction data set where it outperformed strong baselines such as random forest-based approaches. The proposed approach enables exploration of up to 300% larger feature spaces compared to AutoML-only approaches, enabling faster search for better models on off-the-shelf hardware.

Top-down Bird's Eye View (BEV) maps are a popular representation for ground robot navigation due to their richness and flexibility for downstream tasks. While recent methods have shown promise for predicting BEV maps from First-Person View (FPV) images, their generalizability is limited to small regions captured by current autonomous vehicle-based datasets. In this context, we show that a more scalable approach towards generalizable map prediction can be enabled by using two large-scale crowd-sourced mapping platforms, Mapillary for FPV images and OpenStreetMap for BEV semantic maps. We introduce Map It Anywhere (MIA), a data engine that enables seamless curation and modeling of labeled map prediction data from existing open-source map platforms. Using our MIA data engine, we display the ease of automatically collecting a dataset of 1.2 million pairs of FPV images & BEV maps encompassing diverse geographies, landscapes, environmental factors, camera models & capture scenarios. We further train a simple camera model-agnostic model on this data for BEV map prediction. Extensive evaluations using established benchmarks and our dataset show that the data curated by MIA enables effective pretraining for generalizable BEV map prediction, with zero-shot performance far exceeding baselines trained on existing datasets by 35%. Our analysis highlights the promise of using large-scale public maps for developing & testing generalizable BEV perception, paving the way for more robust autonomous navigation.

Improvements in language model capabilities are often attributed to increasing model size or training data, but in some cases smaller models trained on curated data or with different architectural decisions can outperform larger ones trained on more tokens. What accounts for this? To quantify the impact of these design choices, we meta-analyze 92 open-source pretrained models across a wide array of scales, including state-of-the-art open-weights models as well as less performant models and those with less conventional design decisions. We find that by incorporating features besides model size and number of training tokens, we can achieve a relative 3-28% increase in ability to predict downstream performance compared with using scale alone. Analysis of model design decisions reveal insights into data composition, such as the trade-off between language and code tasks at 15-25\% code, as well as the better performance of some architectural decisions such as choosing rotary over learned embeddings. Broadly, our framework lays a foundation for more systematic investigation of how model development choices shape final capabilities.

Multi-channel imaging data is a prevalent data format in scientific fields such as astronomy and biology. The structured information and the high dimensionality of these 3-D tensor data makes the analysis an intriguing but challenging topic for statisticians and practitioners. The low-rank scalar-on-tensor regression model, in particular, has received widespread attention and has been re-formulated as a tensor Gaussian Process (Tensor-GP) model with multi-linear kernel in Yu et al. (2018). In this paper, we extend the Tensor-GP model by integrating a dimensionality reduction technique, called tensor contraction, with a Tensor-GP for a scalar-on-tensor regression task with multi-channel imaging data. This is motivated by the solar flare forecasting problem with high dimensional multi-channel imaging data. We first estimate a latent, reduced-size tensor for each data tensor and then apply a multi-linear Tensor-GP on the latent tensor data for prediction. We introduce an anisotropic total-variation regularization when conducting the tensor contraction to obtain a sparse and smooth latent tensor. We then propose an alternating proximal gradient descent algorithm for estimation. We validate our approach via extensive simulation studies and applying it to the solar flare forecasting problem.

We developed an explainable artificial intelligence (AI) early warning score (xAI-EWS) system for early detection of acute critical illness. While maintaining a high predictive performance, our system explains to the clinician on which relevant electronic health records (EHRs) data the prediction is grounded. Acute critical illness is often preceded by deterioration of routinely measured clinical parameters, e.g., blood pressure and heart rate. Early clinical prediction is typically based on manually calculated screening metrics that simply weigh these parameters, such as Early Warning Scores (EWS). The predictive performance of EWSs yields a tradeoff between sensitivity and specificity that can lead to negative outcomes for the patient. Previous work on EHR-trained AI systems offers promising results with high levels of predictive performance in relation to the early, real-time prediction of acute critical illness. However, without insight into the complex decisions by such system, clinical translation is hindered. In this letter, we present our xAI-EWS system, which potentiates clinical translation by accompanying a prediction with information on the EHR data explaining it.

In this paper, we present the practical problems and the lessons learned at short-video services from Kuaishou. In industry, a widely-used multi-task framework is the Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) paradigm, which always introduces some shared and specific experts for each task and then uses gate networks to measure related experts' contributions. Although the MoE achieves remarkable improvements, we still observe three anomalies that seriously affect model performances in our iteration: (1) Expert Collapse: We found that experts' output distributions are significantly different, and some experts have over 90% zero activations with ReLU, making it hard for gate networks to assign fair weights to balance experts. (2) Expert Degradation: Ideally, the shared-expert aims to provide predictive information for all tasks simultaneously. Nevertheless, we find that some shared-experts are occupied by only one task, which indicates that shared-experts lost their ability but degenerated into some specific-experts. (3) Expert Underfitting: In our services, we have dozens of behavior tasks that need to be predicted, but we find that some data-sparse prediction tasks tend to ignore their specific-experts and assign large weights to shared-experts. The reason might be that the shared-experts can perceive more gradient updates and knowledge from dense tasks, while specific-experts easily fall into underfitting due to their sparse behaviors. Motivated by those observations, we propose HoME to achieve a simple, efficient and balanced MoE system for multi-task learning.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) fine-tunes pre-trained deep neural networks for unseen test data. The primary challenge of TTA is limited access to the entire test dataset during online updates, causing error accumulation. To mitigate it, TTA methods have utilized the model output's entropy as a confidence metric that aims to determine which samples have a lower likelihood of causing error. Through experimental studies, however, we observed the unreliability of entropy as a confidence metric for TTA under biased scenarios and theoretically revealed that it stems from the neglect of the influence of latent disentangled factors of data on predictions. Building upon these findings, we introduce a novel TTA method named Destroy Your Object (DeYO), which leverages a newly proposed confidence metric named Pseudo-Label Probability Difference (PLPD). PLPD quantifies the influence of the shape of an object on prediction by measuring the difference between predictions before and after applying an object-destructive transformation. DeYO consists of sample selection and sample weighting, which employ entropy and PLPD concurrently. For robust adaptation, DeYO prioritizes samples that dominantly incorporate shape information when making predictions. Our extensive experiments demonstrate the consistent superiority of DeYO over baseline methods across various scenarios, including biased and wild. Project page is publicly available at https://whitesnowdrop.github.io/DeYO/.

Link prediction, a fundamental task on graphs, has proven indispensable in various applications, e.g., friend recommendation, protein analysis, and drug interaction prediction. However, since datasets span a multitude of domains, they could have distinct underlying mechanisms of link formation. Evidence in existing literature underscores the absence of a universally best algorithm suitable for all datasets. In this paper, we endeavor to explore principles of link prediction across diverse datasets from a data-centric perspective. We recognize three fundamental factors critical to link prediction: local structural proximity, global structural proximity, and feature proximity. We then unearth relationships among those factors where (i) global structural proximity only shows effectiveness when local structural proximity is deficient. (ii) The incompatibility can be found between feature and structural proximity. Such incompatibility leads to GNNs for Link Prediction (GNN4LP) consistently underperforming on edges where the feature proximity factor dominates. Inspired by these new insights from a data perspective, we offer practical instruction for GNN4LP model design and guidelines for selecting appropriate benchmark datasets for more comprehensive evaluations.

Dense prediction tasks hold significant importance of computer vision, aiming to learn pixel-wise annotated label for an input image. Despite advances in this field, existing methods primarily focus on idealized conditions, with limited generalization to real-world scenarios and facing the challenging scarcity of real-world data. To systematically study this problem, we first introduce DenseWorld, a benchmark spanning a broad set of 25 dense prediction tasks that correspond to urgent real-world applications, featuring unified evaluation across tasks. Then, we propose DenseDiT, which maximally exploits generative models' visual priors to perform diverse real-world dense prediction tasks through a unified strategy. DenseDiT combines a parameter-reuse mechanism and two lightweight branches that adaptively integrate multi-scale context, working with less than 0.1% additional parameters. Evaluations on DenseWorld reveal significant performance drops in existing general and specialized baselines, highlighting their limited real-world generalization. In contrast, DenseDiT achieves superior results using less than 0.01% training data of baselines, underscoring its practical value for real-world deployment. Our data, and checkpoints and codes are available at https://xcltql666.github.io/DenseDiTProj

Accumulating substantial volumes of real-world driving data proves pivotal in the realm of trajectory forecasting for autonomous driving. Given the heavy reliance of current trajectory forecasting models on data-driven methodologies, we aim to tackle the challenge of learning general trajectory forecasting representations under limited data availability. We propose a pipeline-level solution to mitigate the issue of data scarcity in trajectory forecasting. The solution is composed of two parts: firstly, we adopt HD map augmentation and trajectory synthesis for generating driving data, and then we learn representations by pre-training on them. Specifically, we apply vector transformations to reshape the maps, and then employ a rule-based model to generate trajectories on both original and augmented scenes; thus enlarging the driving data without collecting additional real ones. To foster the learning of general representations within this augmented dataset, we comprehensively explore the different pre-training strategies, including extending the concept of a Masked AutoEncoder (MAE) for trajectory forecasting. Without bells and whistles, our proposed pipeline-level solution is general, simple, yet effective: we conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of our data expansion and pre-training strategies, which outperform the baseline prediction model by large margins, e.g. 5.04%, 3.84% and 8.30% in terms of MR_6, minADE_6 and minFDE_6. The pre-training dataset and the codes for pre-training and fine-tuning are released at https://github.com/yhli123/Pretraining_on_Synthetic_Driving_Data_for_Trajectory_Prediction.

Recent advances in the theory of Neural Operators (NOs) have enabled fast and accurate computation of the solutions to complex systems described by partial differential equations (PDEs). Despite their great success, current NO-based solutions face important challenges when dealing with spatio-temporal PDEs over long time scales. Specifically, the current theory of NOs does not present a systematic framework to perform data assimilation and efficiently correct the evolution of PDE solutions over time based on sparsely sampled noisy measurements. In this paper, we propose a learning-based state-space approach to compute the solution operators to infinite-dimensional semilinear PDEs. Exploiting the structure of semilinear PDEs and the theory of nonlinear observers in function spaces, we develop a flexible recursive method that allows for both prediction and data assimilation by combining prediction and correction operations. The proposed framework is capable of producing fast and accurate predictions over long time horizons, dealing with irregularly sampled noisy measurements to correct the solution, and benefits from the decoupling between the spatial and temporal dynamics of this class of PDEs. We show through experiments on the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky, Navier-Stokes and Korteweg-de Vries equations that the proposed model is robust to noise and can leverage arbitrary amounts of measurements to correct its prediction over a long time horizon with little computational overhead.

While deep reinforcement learning excels at solving tasks where large amounts of data can be collected through virtually unlimited interaction with the environment, learning from limited interaction remains a key challenge. We posit that an agent can learn more efficiently if we augment reward maximization with self-supervised objectives based on structure in its visual input and sequential interaction with the environment. Our method, Self-Predictive Representations(SPR), trains an agent to predict its own latent state representations multiple steps into the future. We compute target representations for future states using an encoder which is an exponential moving average of the agent's parameters and we make predictions using a learned transition model. On its own, this future prediction objective outperforms prior methods for sample-efficient deep RL from pixels. We further improve performance by adding data augmentation to the future prediction loss, which forces the agent's representations to be consistent across multiple views of an observation. Our full self-supervised objective, which combines future prediction and data augmentation, achieves a median human-normalized score of 0.415 on Atari in a setting limited to 100k steps of environment interaction, which represents a 55% relative improvement over the previous state-of-the-art. Notably, even in this limited data regime, SPR exceeds expert human scores on 7 out of 26 games. The code associated with this work is available at https://github.com/mila-iqia/spr

Large language models (LLMs) present novel opportunities in public opinion research by predicting survey responses in advance during the early stages of survey design. Prior methods steer LLMs via descriptions of subpopulations as LLMs' input prompt, yet such prompt engineering approaches have struggled to faithfully predict the distribution of survey responses from human subjects. In this work, we propose directly fine-tuning LLMs to predict response distributions by leveraging unique structural characteristics of survey data. To enable fine-tuning, we curate SubPOP, a significantly scaled dataset of 3,362 questions and 70K subpopulation-response pairs from well-established public opinion surveys. We show that fine-tuning on SubPOP greatly improves the match between LLM predictions and human responses across various subpopulations, reducing the LLM-human gap by up to 46% compared to baselines, and achieves strong generalization to unseen surveys and subpopulations. Our findings highlight the potential of survey-based fine-tuning to improve opinion prediction for diverse, real-world subpopulations and therefore enable more efficient survey designs. Our code is available at https://github.com/JosephJeesungSuh/subpop.

As data becomes the fuel driving technological and economic growth, a fundamental challenge is how to quantify the value of data in algorithmic predictions and decisions. For example, in healthcare and consumer markets, it has been suggested that individuals should be compensated for the data that they generate, but it is not clear what is an equitable valuation for individual data. In this work, we develop a principled framework to address data valuation in the context of supervised machine learning. Given a learning algorithm trained on n data points to produce a predictor, we propose data Shapley as a metric to quantify the value of each training datum to the predictor performance. Data Shapley value uniquely satisfies several natural properties of equitable data valuation. We develop Monte Carlo and gradient-based methods to efficiently estimate data Shapley values in practical settings where complex learning algorithms, including neural networks, are trained on large datasets. In addition to being equitable, extensive experiments across biomedical, image and synthetic data demonstrate that data Shapley has several other benefits: 1) it is more powerful than the popular leave-one-out or leverage score in providing insight on what data is more valuable for a given learning task; 2) low Shapley value data effectively capture outliers and corruptions; 3) high Shapley value data inform what type of new data to acquire to improve the predictor.

The rise of big data has amplified the need for efficient, user-friendly automated machine learning (AutoML) tools. However, the intricacy of understanding domain-specific data and defining prediction tasks necessitates human intervention making the process time-consuming while preventing full automation. Instead, envision an intelligent agent capable of assisting users in conducting AutoML tasks through intuitive, natural conversations without requiring in-depth knowledge of the underlying machine learning (ML) processes. This agent's key challenge is to accurately comprehend the user's prediction goals and, consequently, formulate precise ML tasks, adjust data sets and model parameters accordingly, and articulate results effectively. In this paper, we take a pioneering step towards this ambitious goal by introducing a ChatGPT-based conversational data-science framework to act as a "personal data scientist". Precisely, we utilize Large Language Models (ChatGPT) to build a natural interface between the users and the ML models (Scikit-Learn), which in turn, allows us to approach this ambitious problem with a realistic solution. Our model pivots around four dialogue states: Data Visualization, Task Formulation, Prediction Engineering, and Result Summary and Recommendation. Each state marks a unique conversation phase, impacting the overall user-system interaction. Multiple LLM instances, serving as "micro-agents", ensure a cohesive conversation flow, granting us granular control over the conversation's progression. In summary, we developed an end-to-end system that not only proves the viability of the novel concept of conversational data science but also underscores the potency of LLMs in solving complex tasks. Interestingly, its development spotlighted several critical weaknesses in the current LLMs (ChatGPT) and highlighted substantial opportunities for improvement.

Ensuring the reliability and safety of automated decision-making is crucial. It is well-known that data distribution shifts in machine learning can produce unreliable outcomes. This paper proposes a new approach for measuring the reliability of predictions under distribution shifts. We analyze how the outputs of a trained neural network change using clustering to measure distances between outputs and class centroids. We propose this distance as a metric to evaluate the confidence of predictions under distribution shifts. We assign each prediction to a cluster with centroid representing the mean softmax output for all correct predictions of a given class. We then define a safety threshold for a class as the smallest distance from an incorrect prediction to the given class centroid. We evaluate the approach on the MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets using a Convolutional Neural Network and a Vision Transformer, respectively. The results show that our approach is consistent across these data sets and network models, and indicate that the proposed metric can offer an efficient way of determining when automated predictions are acceptable and when they should be deferred to human operators given a distribution shift.

Weather forecasting is critical for a range of human activities including transportation, agriculture, industry, as well as the safety of the general public. Machine learning models have the potential to transform the complex weather prediction pipeline, but current approaches still rely on numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems, limiting forecast speed and accuracy. Here we demonstrate that a machine learning model can replace the entire operational NWP pipeline. Aardvark Weather, an end-to-end data-driven weather prediction system, ingests raw observations and outputs global gridded forecasts and local station forecasts. Further, it can be optimised end-to-end to maximise performance over quantities of interest. Global forecasts outperform an operational NWP baseline for multiple variables and lead times. Local station forecasts are skillful up to ten days lead time and achieve comparable and often lower errors than a post-processed global NWP baseline and a state-of-the-art end-to-end forecasting system with input from human forecasters. These forecasts are produced with a remarkably simple neural process model using just 8% of the input data and three orders of magnitude less compute than existing NWP and hybrid AI-NWP methods. We anticipate that Aardvark Weather will be the starting point for a new generation of end-to-end machine learning models for medium-range forecasting that will reduce computational costs by orders of magnitude and enable the rapid and cheap creation of bespoke models for users in a variety of fields, including for the developing world where state-of-the-art local models are not currently available.

The goal of predictive data attribution is to estimate how adding or removing a given set of training datapoints will affect model predictions. In convex settings, this goal is straightforward (i.e., via the infinitesimal jackknife). In large-scale (non-convex) settings, however, existing methods are far less successful -- current methods' estimates often only weakly correlate with ground truth. In this work, we present a new data attribution method (MAGIC) that combines classical methods and recent advances in metadifferentiation to (nearly) optimally estimate the effect of adding or removing training data on model predictions.

Stock market is often important as it represents the ownership claims on businesses. Without sufficient stocks, a company cannot perform well in finance. Predicting a stock market performance of a company is nearly hard because every time the prices of a company stock keeps changing and not constant. So, its complex to determine the stock data. But if the previous performance of a company in stock market is known, then we can track the data and provide predictions to stockholders in order to wisely take decisions on handling the stocks to a company. To handle this, many machine learning models have been invented but they didn't succeed due to many reasons like absence of advanced libraries, inaccuracy of model when made to train with real time data and much more. So, to track the patterns and the features of data, a CNN-LSTM Neural Network can be made. Recently, CNN is now used in Natural Language Processing (NLP) based applications, so by identifying the features from stock data and converting them into tensors, we can obtain the features and then send it to LSTM neural network to find the patterns and thereby predicting the stock market for given period of time. The accuracy of the CNN-LSTM NN model is found to be high even when allowed to train on real-time stock market data. This paper describes about the features of the custom CNN-LSTM model, experiments we made with the model (like training with stock market datasets, performance comparison with other models) and the end product we obtained at final stage.

Relational databases are the de facto standard for storing and querying structured data, and extracting insights from structured data requires advanced analytics. Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved super-human prediction performance in particular data types, e.g., images. However, existing DNNs may not produce meaningful results when applied to structured data. The reason is that there are correlations and dependencies across combinations of attribute values in a table, and these do not follow simple additive patterns that can be easily mimicked by a DNN. The number of possible such cross features is combinatorial, making them computationally prohibitive to model. Furthermore, the deployment of learning models in real-world applications has also highlighted the need for interpretability, especially for high-stakes applications, which remains another issue of concern to DNNs. In this paper, we present ARM-Net, an adaptive relation modeling network tailored for structured data, and a lightweight framework ARMOR based on ARM-Net for relational data analytics. The key idea is to model feature interactions with cross features selectively and dynamically, by first transforming the input features into exponential space, and then determining the interaction order and interaction weights adaptively for each cross feature. We propose a novel sparse attention mechanism to dynamically generate the interaction weights given the input tuple, so that we can explicitly model cross features of arbitrary orders with noisy features filtered selectively. Then during model inference, ARM-Net can specify the cross features being used for each prediction for higher accuracy and better interpretability. Our extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that ARM-Net consistently outperforms existing models and provides more interpretable predictions for data-driven decision making.

Bone density prediction via CT scans to estimate T-scores is crucial, providing a more precise assessment of bone health compared to traditional methods like X-ray bone density tests, which lack spatial resolution and the ability to detect localized changes. However, CT-based prediction faces two major challenges: the high computational complexity of transformer-based architectures, which limits their deployment in portable and clinical settings, and the imbalanced, long-tailed distribution of real-world hospital data that skews predictions. To address these issues, we introduce MedConv, a convolutional model for bone density prediction that outperforms transformer models with lower computational demands. We also adapt Bal-CE loss and post-hoc logit adjustment to improve class balance. Extensive experiments on our AustinSpine dataset shows that our approach achieves up to 21% improvement in accuracy and 20% in ROC AUC over previous state-of-the-art methods.

Large pretrained models such as GPT-3 have had tremendous impact on modern natural language processing by leveraging self-supervised learning to learn salient representations that can be used to readily finetune on a wide variety of downstream tasks. We investigate the possibility of transferring such advances to molecular machine learning by building a chemical foundation model, ChemBERTa-2, using the language of SMILES. While labeled data for molecular prediction tasks is typically scarce, libraries of SMILES strings are readily available. In this work, we build upon ChemBERTa by optimizing the pretraining process. We compare multi-task and self-supervised pretraining by varying hyperparameters and pretraining dataset size, up to 77M compounds from PubChem. To our knowledge, the 77M set constitutes one of the largest datasets used for molecular pretraining to date. We find that with these pretraining improvements, we are competitive with existing state-of-the-art architectures on the MoleculeNet benchmark suite. We analyze the degree to which improvements in pretraining translate to improvement on downstream tasks.

Aligning Large Language Models (LLMs) with human preferences is crucial for their deployment in real-world applications. Recent advancements in Self-Rewarding Language Models suggest that an LLM can use its internal reward models (such as LLM-as-a-Judge) yuanself to generate preference data, improving alignment performance without costly human annotation. However, we find that different internal reward models within the same LLM often generate inconsistent preferences. This inconsistency raises concerns about the reliability of self-generated preference data, hinders overall alignment performance, and highlights the need for further research to ensure reliable and coherent alignment with human preferences. To address this limitation, we propose Self-Consistent Internal Rewards (SCIR), a novel framework designed to enhance consistency among internal reward models during training. In each training step, we collect preference predictions from multiple pre-defined internal reward models and enforce consistency and confidence through an inconsistency penalty mechanism, thereby improving the reliability of these internal reward models. We selectively use data with consistent predictions for preference optimization, ensuring the quality of the preference data. By employing self-consistent internal rewards, our method significantly improves the alignment performance and reward modeling capability of LLMs, outperforming baseline methods by a notable margin.

Semi-supervised learning, i.e. jointly learning from labeled and unlabeled samples, is an active research topic due to its key role on relaxing human supervision. In the context of image classification, recent advances to learn from unlabeled samples are mainly focused on consistency regularization methods that encourage invariant predictions for different perturbations of unlabeled samples. We, conversely, propose to learn from unlabeled data by generating soft pseudo-labels using the network predictions. We show that a naive pseudo-labeling overfits to incorrect pseudo-labels due to the so-called confirmation bias and demonstrate that mixup augmentation and setting a minimum number of labeled samples per mini-batch are effective regularization techniques for reducing it. The proposed approach achieves state-of-the-art results in CIFAR-10/100, SVHN, and Mini-ImageNet despite being much simpler than other methods. These results demonstrate that pseudo-labeling alone can outperform consistency regularization methods, while the opposite was supposed in previous work. Source code is available at https://git.io/fjQsC.

While diffusion models can successfully generate data and make predictions, they are predominantly designed for static images. We propose an approach for efficiently training diffusion models for probabilistic spatiotemporal forecasting, where generating stable and accurate rollout forecasts remains challenging, Our method, DYffusion, leverages the temporal dynamics in the data, directly coupling it with the diffusion steps in the model. We train a stochastic, time-conditioned interpolator and a forecaster network that mimic the forward and reverse processes of standard diffusion models, respectively. DYffusion naturally facilitates multi-step and long-range forecasting, allowing for highly flexible, continuous-time sampling trajectories and the ability to trade-off performance with accelerated sampling at inference time. In addition, the dynamics-informed diffusion process in DYffusion imposes a strong inductive bias and significantly improves computational efficiency compared to traditional Gaussian noise-based diffusion models. Our approach performs competitively on probabilistic forecasting of complex dynamics in sea surface temperatures, Navier-Stokes flows, and spring mesh systems.

We present Multi-HMR, a strong sigle-shot model for multi-person 3D human mesh recovery from a single RGB image. Predictions encompass the whole body, i.e., including hands and facial expressions, using the SMPL-X parametric model and 3D location in the camera coordinate system. Our model detects people by predicting coarse 2D heatmaps of person locations, using features produced by a standard Vision Transformer (ViT) backbone. It then predicts their whole-body pose, shape and 3D location using a new cross-attention module called the Human Prediction Head (HPH), with one query attending to the entire set of features for each detected person. As direct prediction of fine-grained hands and facial poses in a single shot, i.e., without relying on explicit crops around body parts, is hard to learn from existing data, we introduce CUFFS, the Close-Up Frames of Full-Body Subjects dataset, containing humans close to the camera with diverse hand poses. We show that incorporating it into the training data further enhances predictions, particularly for hands. Multi-HMR also optionally accounts for camera intrinsics, if available, by encoding camera ray directions for each image token. This simple design achieves strong performance on whole-body and body-only benchmarks simultaneously: a ViT-S backbone on 448{times}448 images already yields a fast and competitive model, while larger models and higher resolutions obtain state-of-the-art results.

With the increase of data in day-to-day life, businesses and different stakeholders need to analyze the data for better predictions. Traditionally, relational data has been a source of various insights, but with the increase in computational power and the need to understand deeper relationships between entities, the need to design new techniques has arisen. For this graph data analysis has become an extraordinary tool for understanding the data, which reveals more realistic and flexible modelling of complex relationships. Recently, Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have shown great promise in various applications, such as social network analysis, recommendation systems, drug discovery, and more. However, many adversarial attacks can happen over the data, whether during training (poisoning attack) or during testing (evasion attack), which can adversely manipulate the desired outcome from the GNN model. Therefore, it is crucial to make the GNNs robust to such attacks. The existing robustness methods are computationally demanding and perform poorly when the intensity of attack increases. This paper presents a computationally efficient framework, namely, pLapGNN, based on weighted p-Laplacian for making GNNs robust. Empirical evaluation on real datasets establishes the efficacy and efficiency of the proposed method.

Vision-language models (VLMs) have achieved remarkable success across diverse tasks by leveraging rich textual information with minimal labeled data. However, deploying such large models remains challenging, particularly in resource-constrained environments. Knowledge distillation (KD) offers a well-established solution to this problem; however, recent KD approaches from VLMs often involve multi-stage training or additional tuning, increasing computational overhead and optimization complexity. In this paper, we propose texttt{D}ual-texttt{H}ead texttt{O}ptimization (texttt{DHO}) -- a simple yet effective KD framework that transfers knowledge from VLMs to compact, task-specific models in semi-supervised settings. Specifically, we introduce dual prediction heads that independently learn from labeled data and teacher predictions, and propose to linearly combine their outputs during inference. We observe that DHO mitigates gradient conflicts between supervised and distillation signals, enabling more effective feature learning than single-head KD baselines. As a result, extensive experiments show that DHO consistently outperforms baselines across multiple domains and fine-grained datasets. Notably, on ImageNet, it achieves state-of-the-art performance, improving accuracy by 3% and 0.1% with 1% and 10% labeled data, respectively, while using fewer parameters.

Large foundation models have shown strong open-world generalization to complex problems in vision and language, but similar levels of generalization have yet to be achieved in robotics. One fundamental challenge is the lack of robotic data, which are typically obtained through expensive on-robot operation. A promising remedy is to leverage cheaper, off-domain data such as action-free videos, hand-drawn sketches or simulation data. In this work, we posit that hierarchical vision-language-action (VLA) models can be more effective in utilizing off-domain data than standard monolithic VLA models that directly finetune vision-language models (VLMs) to predict actions. In particular, we study a class of hierarchical VLA models, where the high-level VLM is finetuned to produce a coarse 2D path indicating the desired robot end-effector trajectory given an RGB image and a task description. The intermediate 2D path prediction is then served as guidance to the low-level, 3D-aware control policy capable of precise manipulation. Doing so alleviates the high-level VLM from fine-grained action prediction, while reducing the low-level policy's burden on complex task-level reasoning. We show that, with the hierarchical design, the high-level VLM can transfer across significant domain gaps between the off-domain finetuning data and real-robot testing scenarios, including differences on embodiments, dynamics, visual appearances and task semantics, etc. In the real-robot experiments, we observe an average of 20% improvement in success rate across seven different axes of generalization over OpenVLA, representing a 50% relative gain. Visual results, code, and dataset are provided at: https://hamster-robot.github.io/

It is well-known that a diverse corpus is critical for training large language models, which are typically constructed from a mixture of various domains. In general, previous efforts resort to sampling training data from different domains with static proportions, as well as adjusting data proportions during training. However, few methods have addressed the complexities of domain-adaptive continual pre-training. To fill this gap, we propose Velocitune, a novel framework dynamically assesses learning velocity and adjusts data proportions accordingly, favoring slower-learning domains while shunning faster-learning ones, which is guided by a scaling law to indicate the desired learning goal for each domain with less associated cost. To evaluate the effectiveness of Velocitune, we conduct experiments in a reasoning-focused dataset with CodeLlama, as well as in a corpus specialised for system command generation with Llama3 and Mistral. Velocitune achieves performance gains in both math and code reasoning tasks and command-line generation benchmarks. Further analysis reveals that key factors driving Velocitune's effectiveness include target loss prediction and data ordering.

We introduce the variational graph auto-encoder (VGAE), a framework for unsupervised learning on graph-structured data based on the variational auto-encoder (VAE). This model makes use of latent variables and is capable of learning interpretable latent representations for undirected graphs. We demonstrate this model using a graph convolutional network (GCN) encoder and a simple inner product decoder. Our model achieves competitive results on a link prediction task in citation networks. In contrast to most existing models for unsupervised learning on graph-structured data and link prediction, our model can naturally incorporate node features, which significantly improves predictive performance on a number of benchmark datasets.

Tracking by detection has been the prevailing paradigm in the field of Multi-object Tracking (MOT). These methods typically rely on the Kalman Filter to estimate the future locations of objects, assuming linear object motion. However, they fall short when tracking objects exhibiting nonlinear and diverse motion in scenarios like dancing and sports. In addition, there has been limited focus on utilizing learning-based motion predictors in MOT. To address these challenges, we resort to exploring data-driven motion prediction methods. Inspired by the great expectation of state space models (SSMs), such as Mamba, in long-term sequence modeling with near-linear complexity, we introduce a Mamba-based motion model named Mamba moTion Predictor (MTP). MTP is designed to model the complex motion patterns of objects like dancers and athletes. Specifically, MTP takes the spatial-temporal location dynamics of objects as input, captures the motion pattern using a bi-Mamba encoding layer, and predicts the next motion. In real-world scenarios, objects may be missed due to occlusion or motion blur, leading to premature termination of their trajectories. To tackle this challenge, we further expand the application of MTP. We employ it in an autoregressive way to compensate for missing observations by utilizing its own predictions as inputs, thereby contributing to more consistent trajectories. Our proposed tracker, MambaTrack, demonstrates advanced performance on benchmarks such as Dancetrack and SportsMOT, which are characterized by complex motion and severe occlusion.

Recent strides in interpretable machine learning (ML) research reveal that models exploit undesirable patterns in the data to make predictions, which potentially causes harms in deployment. However, it is unclear how we can fix these models. We present our ongoing work, GAM Changer, an open-source interactive system to help data scientists and domain experts easily and responsibly edit their Generalized Additive Models (GAMs). With novel visualization techniques, our tool puts interpretability into action -- empowering human users to analyze, validate, and align model behaviors with their knowledge and values. Built using modern web technologies, our tool runs locally in users' computational notebooks or web browsers without requiring extra compute resources, lowering the barrier to creating more responsible ML models. GAM Changer is available at https://interpret.ml/gam-changer.

Given the clinical notes written in electronic health records (EHRs), it is challenging to predict the diagnostic codes which is formulated as a multi-label classification task. The large set of labels, the hierarchical dependency, and the imbalanced data make this prediction task extremely hard. Most existing work built a binary prediction for each label independently, ignoring the dependencies between labels. To address this problem, we propose a two-stage framework to improve automatic ICD coding by capturing the label correlation. Specifically, we train a label set distribution estimator to rescore the probability of each label set candidate generated by a base predictor. This paper is the first attempt at learning the label set distribution as a reranking module for medical code prediction. In the experiments, our proposed framework is able to improve upon best-performing predictors on the benchmark MIMIC datasets. The source code of this project is available at https://github.com/MiuLab/ICD-Correlation.

Concept-based explanation methods, such as Concept Activation Vectors, are potent means to quantify how abstract or high-level characteristics of input data influence the predictions of complex deep neural networks. However, applying them to industrial prediction problems is challenging as it is not immediately clear how to define and access appropriate concepts for individual use cases and specific data types. In this work, we investigate how to leverage established concept-based explanation techniques in the context of bearing fault detection with deep neural networks trained on vibration signals. Since bearings are prevalent in almost every rotating equipment, ensuring the reliability of intransparent fault detection models is crucial to prevent costly repairs and downtimes of industrial machinery. Our evaluations demonstrate that explaining opaque models in terms of vibration concepts enables human-comprehensible and intuitive insights about their inner workings, but the underlying assumptions need to be carefully validated first.

Recent robot learning methods commonly rely on imitation learning from massive robotic dataset collected with teleoperation. When facing a new task, such methods generally require collecting a set of new teleoperation data and finetuning the policy. Furthermore, the teleoperation data collection pipeline is also tedious and expensive. Instead, human is able to efficiently learn new tasks by just watching others do. In this paper, we introduce a novel two-stage framework that utilizes human demonstrations to learn a generalizable robot policy. Such policy can directly take human demonstration video as a prompt and perform new tasks without any new teleoperation data and model finetuning at all. In the first stage, we train video generation model that captures a joint representation for both the human and robot demonstration video data using cross-prediction. In the second stage, we fuse the learned representation with a shared action space between human and robot using a novel prototypical contrastive loss. Empirical evaluations on real-world dexterous manipulation tasks show the effectiveness and generalization capabilities of our proposed method.

Existing text scoring methods require a large corpus, struggle with short texts, or require hand-labeled data. We develop a text scoring framework that leverages generative large language models (LLMs) to (1) set texts against the backdrop of information from the near-totality of the web and digitized media, and (2) effectively transform pairwise text comparisons from a reasoning problem to a pattern recognition task. Our approach, concept-guided chain-of-thought (CGCoT), utilizes a chain of researcher-designed prompts with an LLM to generate a concept-specific breakdown for each text, akin to guidance provided to human coders. We then pairwise compare breakdowns using an LLM and aggregate answers into a score using a probability model. We apply this approach to better understand speech reflecting aversion to specific political parties on Twitter, a topic that has commanded increasing interest because of its potential contributions to democratic backsliding. We achieve stronger correlations with human judgments than widely used unsupervised text scoring methods like Wordfish. In a supervised setting, besides a small pilot dataset to develop CGCoT prompts, our measures require no additional hand-labeled data and produce predictions on par with RoBERTa-Large fine-tuned on thousands of hand-labeled tweets. This project showcases the potential of combining human expertise and LLMs for scoring tasks.

We present a conceptual framework, datamodeling, for analyzing the behavior of a model class in terms of the training data. For any fixed "target" example x, training set S, and learning algorithm, a datamodel is a parameterized function 2^S to R that for any subset of S' subset S -- using only information about which examples of S are contained in S' -- predicts the outcome of training a model on S' and evaluating on x. Despite the potential complexity of the underlying process being approximated (e.g., end-to-end training and evaluation of deep neural networks), we show that even simple linear datamodels can successfully predict model outputs. We then demonstrate that datamodels give rise to a variety of applications, such as: accurately predicting the effect of dataset counterfactuals; identifying brittle predictions; finding semantically similar examples; quantifying train-test leakage; and embedding data into a well-behaved and feature-rich representation space. Data for this paper (including pre-computed datamodels as well as raw predictions from four million trained deep neural networks) is available at https://github.com/MadryLab/datamodels-data .

Stance detection is a critical component of rumour and fake news identification. It involves the extraction of the stance a particular author takes related to a given claim, both expressed in text. This paper investigates stance classification for Russian. It introduces a new dataset, RuStance, of Russian tweets and news comments from multiple sources, covering multiple stories, as well as text classification approaches to stance detection as benchmarks over this data in this language. As well as presenting this openly-available dataset, the first of its kind for Russian, the paper presents a baseline for stance prediction in the language.

Dense prediction tasks such as object detection and segmentation require high-quality labels at pixel level, which are costly to obtain. Recent advances in foundation models have enabled the generation of autolabels, which we find to be competitive but not yet sufficient to fully replace human annotations, especially for more complex datasets. Thus, we consider the challenge of selecting a representative subset of images for labeling from a large pool of unlabeled images under a constrained annotation budget. This task is further complicated by imbalanced class distributions, as rare classes are often underrepresented in selected subsets. We propose object-focused data selection (OFDS) which leverages object-level representations to ensure that the selected image subsets semantically cover the target classes, including rare ones. We validate OFDS on PASCAL VOC and Cityscapes for object detection and semantic segmentation tasks. Our experiments demonstrate that prior methods which employ image-level representations fail to consistently outperform random selection. In contrast, OFDS consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance with substantial improvements over all baselines in scenarios with imbalanced class distributions. Moreover, we demonstrate that pre-training with autolabels on the full datasets before fine-tuning on human-labeled subsets selected by OFDS further enhances the final performance.

Pedestrian intention prediction is crucial for autonomous driving. In particular, knowing if pedestrians are going to cross in front of the ego-vehicle is core to performing safe and comfortable maneuvers. Creating accurate and fast models that predict such intentions from sequential images is challenging. A factor contributing to this is the lack of datasets with diverse crossing and non-crossing (C/NC) scenarios. We address this scarceness by introducing a framework, named ARCANE, which allows programmatically generating synthetic datasets consisting of C/NC video clip samples. As an example, we use ARCANE to generate a large and diverse dataset named PedSynth. We will show how PedSynth complements widely used real-world datasets such as JAAD and PIE, so enabling more accurate models for C/NC prediction. Considering the onboard deployment of C/NC prediction models, we also propose a deep model named PedGNN, which is fast and has a very low memory footprint. PedGNN is based on a GNN-GRU architecture that takes a sequence of pedestrian skeletons as input to predict crossing intentions.

In the face of escalating climate changes, typhoon intensities and their ensuing damage have surged. Accurate trajectory prediction is crucial for effective damage control. Traditional physics-based models, while comprehensive, are computationally intensive and rely heavily on the expertise of forecasters. Contemporary data-driven methods often rely on reanalysis data, which can be considered to be the closest to the true representation of weather conditions. However, reanalysis data is not produced in real-time and requires time for adjustment because prediction models are calibrated with observational data. This reanalysis data, such as ERA5, falls short in challenging real-world situations. Optimal preparedness necessitates predictions at least 72 hours in advance, beyond the capabilities of standard physics models. In response to these constraints, we present an approach that harnesses real-time Unified Model (UM) data, sidestepping the limitations of reanalysis data. Our model provides predictions at 6-hour intervals for up to 72 hours in advance and outperforms both state-of-the-art data-driven methods and numerical weather prediction models. In line with our efforts to mitigate adversities inflicted by typhoons, we release our preprocessed PHYSICS TRACK dataset, which includes ERA5 reanalysis data, typhoon best-track, and UM forecast data.

With the increasing volume of high-frequency data in the information age, both challenges and opportunities arise in the prediction of stock volatility. On one hand, the outcome of prediction using tradition method combining stock technical and macroeconomic indicators still leaves room for improvement; on the other hand, macroeconomic indicators and peoples' search record on those search engines affecting their interested topics will intuitively have an impact on the stock volatility. For the convenience of assessment of the influence of these indicators, macroeconomic indicators and stock technical indicators are then grouped into objective factors, while Baidu search indices implying people's interested topics are defined as subjective factors. To align different frequency data, we introduce GARCH-MIDAS model. After mixing all the above data, we then feed them into Transformer model as part of the training data. Our experiments show that this model outperforms the baselines in terms of mean square error. The adaption of both types of data under Transformer model significantly reduces the mean square error from 1.00 to 0.86.

Accurate prediction of Drug-Target Affinity (DTA) is of vital importance in early-stage drug discovery, facilitating the identification of drugs that can effectively interact with specific targets and regulate their activities. While wet experiments remain the most reliable method, they are time-consuming and resource-intensive, resulting in limited data availability that poses challenges for deep learning approaches. Existing methods have primarily focused on developing techniques based on the available DTA data, without adequately addressing the data scarcity issue. To overcome this challenge, we present the SSM-DTA framework, which incorporates three simple yet highly effective strategies: (1) A multi-task training approach that combines DTA prediction with masked language modeling (MLM) using paired drug-target data. (2) A semi-supervised training method that leverages large-scale unpaired molecules and proteins to enhance drug and target representations. This approach differs from previous methods that only employed molecules or proteins in pre-training. (3) The integration of a lightweight cross-attention module to improve the interaction between drugs and targets, further enhancing prediction accuracy. Through extensive experiments on benchmark datasets such as BindingDB, DAVIS, and KIBA, we demonstrate the superior performance of our framework. Additionally, we conduct case studies on specific drug-target binding activities, virtual screening experiments, drug feature visualizations, and real-world applications, all of which showcase the significant potential of our work. In conclusion, our proposed SSM-DTA framework addresses the data limitation challenge in DTA prediction and yields promising results, paving the way for more efficient and accurate drug discovery processes. Our code is available at https://github.com/QizhiPei/SSM-DTA{Github}.

Reducing traffic accidents is an important public safety challenge, therefore, accident analysis and prediction has been a topic of much research over the past few decades. Using small-scale datasets with limited coverage, being dependent on extensive set of data, and being not applicable for real-time purposes are the important shortcomings of the existing studies. To address these challenges, we propose a new solution for real-time traffic accident prediction using easy-to-obtain, but sparse data. Our solution relies on a deep-neural-network model (which we have named DAP, for Deep Accident Prediction); which utilizes a variety of data attributes such as traffic events, weather data, points-of-interest, and time. DAP incorporates multiple components including a recurrent (for time-sensitive data), a fully connected (for time-insensitive data), and a trainable embedding component (to capture spatial heterogeneity). To fill the data gap, we have - through a comprehensive process of data collection, integration, and augmentation - created a large-scale publicly available database of accident information named US-Accidents. By employing the US-Accidents dataset and through an extensive set of experiments across several large cities, we have evaluated our proposal against several baselines. Our analysis and results show significant improvements to predict rare accident events. Further, we have shown the impact of traffic information, time, and points-of-interest data for real-time accident prediction.

This paper reports on a data-driven, interaction-aware motion prediction approach for pedestrians in environments cluttered with static obstacles. When navigating in such workspaces shared with humans, robots need accurate motion predictions of the surrounding pedestrians. Human navigation behavior is mostly influenced by their surrounding pedestrians and by the static obstacles in their vicinity. In this paper we introduce a new model based on Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, which is able to learn human motion behavior from demonstrated data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first approach using LSTMs, that incorporates both static obstacles and surrounding pedestrians for trajectory forecasting. As part of the model, we introduce a new way of encoding surrounding pedestrians based on a 1d-grid in polar angle space. We evaluate the benefit of interaction-aware motion prediction and the added value of incorporating static obstacles on both simulation and real-world datasets by comparing with state-of-the-art approaches. The results show, that our new approach outperforms the other approaches while being very computationally efficient and that taking into account static obstacles for motion predictions significantly improves the prediction accuracy, especially in cluttered environments.

This paper challenges the recent paradigm in atomic property prediction that links progress to growing dataset sizes and computational resources. We show that pretraining on a carefully selected, task-relevant dataset can match or even surpass large-scale pretraining, while using as little as 1/24th of the computational cost. We introduce the Chemical Similarity Index (CSI), a novel metric inspired by computer vision's Fr\'echet Inception Distance, for molecular graphs which quantifies the alignment between upstream pretraining datasets and downstream tasks. By selecting the most relevant dataset with minimal CSI distance, we show that models pretrained on a smaller, focused dataset consistently outperform those pretrained on massive, mixed datasets such as JMP, even when those larger datasets include the relevant dataset. Counterintuitively, we also find that indiscriminately adding more data can degrade model performance when the additional data poorly aligns with the task at hand. Our findings highlight that quality often outperforms quantity in pretraining for atomic property prediction.

Objective: To improve prediction of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) progression to End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) using machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models applied to an integrated clinical and claims dataset of varying observation windows, supported by explainable AI (XAI) to enhance interpretability and reduce bias. Materials and Methods: We utilized data about 10,326 CKD patients, combining their clinical and claims information from 2009 to 2018. Following data preprocessing, cohort identification, and feature engineering, we evaluated multiple statistical, ML and DL models using data extracted from five distinct observation windows. Feature importance and Shapley value analysis were employed to understand key predictors. Models were tested for robustness, clinical relevance, misclassification errors and bias issues. Results: Integrated data models outperformed those using single data sources, with the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model achieving the highest AUC (0.93) and F1 score (0.65). A 24-month observation window was identified as optimal for balancing early detection and prediction accuracy. The 2021 eGFR equation improved prediction accuracy and reduced racial bias, notably for African American patients. Discussion: Improved ESRD prediction accuracy, results interpretability and bias mitigation strategies presented in this study have the potential to significantly enhance CKD and ESRD management, support targeted early interventions and reduce healthcare disparities. Conclusion: This study presents a robust framework for predicting ESRD outcomes in CKD patients, improving clinical decision-making and patient care through multi-sourced, integrated data and AI/ML methods. Future research will expand data integration and explore the application of this framework to other chronic diseases.

Billions of USD are invested in new artists and songs by the music industry every year. This research provides a new strategy for assessing the hit potential of songs, which can help record companies support their investment decisions. A number of models were developed that use both audio data, and a novel feature based on social media listening behaviour. The results show that models based on early adopter behaviour perform well when predicting top 20 dance hits.

Large language models have evolved data-efficient generalists, benefiting from the universal language interface and large-scale pre-training. However, constructing a data-efficient generalist for dense visual prediction presents a distinct challenge due to the variation in label structures across different tasks. Consequently, generalization to unseen dense prediction tasks in the low-data regime is not straightforward and has received less attention from previous vision generalists. In this study, we explore a universal model that can flexibly adapt to unseen dense label structures with a few examples, enabling it to serve as a data-efficient vision generalist in diverse real-world scenarios. To this end, we base our method on a powerful meta-learning framework and explore several axes to improve its performance and versatility for real-world problems, such as flexible adaptation mechanisms and scalability. We evaluate our model across a spectrum of unseen real-world scenarios where low-shot learning is desirable, including video, 3D, medical, biological, and user-interactive tasks. Equipped with a generic architecture and an effective adaptation mechanism, our model flexibly adapts to all of these tasks with at most 50 labeled images, showcasing a significant advancement over existing data-efficient generalist approaches. Codes are available at https://github.com/GitGyun/chameleon.

Machine learning models are often trained to predict the outcome resulting from a human decision. For example, if a doctor decides to test a patient for disease, will the patient test positive? A challenge is that historical decision-making determines whether the outcome is observed: we only observe test outcomes for patients doctors historically tested. Untested patients, for whom outcomes are unobserved, may differ from tested patients along observed and unobserved dimensions. We propose a Bayesian model class which captures this setting. The purpose of the model is to accurately estimate risk for both tested and untested patients. Estimating this model is challenging due to the wide range of possibilities for untested patients. To address this, we propose two domain constraints which are plausible in health settings: a prevalence constraint, where the overall disease prevalence is known, and an expertise constraint, where the human decision-maker deviates from purely risk-based decision-making only along a constrained feature set. We show theoretically and on synthetic data that domain constraints improve parameter inference. We apply our model to a case study of cancer risk prediction, showing that the model's inferred risk predicts cancer diagnoses, its inferred testing policy captures known public health policies, and it can identify suboptimalities in test allocation. Though our case study is in healthcare, our analysis reveals a general class of domain constraints which can improve model estimation in many settings.

Understanding a student's problem-solving strategy can have a significant impact on effective math learning using Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITSs) and Adaptive Instructional Systems (AISs). For instance, the ITS/AIS can better personalize itself to correct specific misconceptions that are indicated by incorrect strategies, specific problems can be designed to improve strategies and frustration can be minimized by adapting to a student's natural way of thinking rather than trying to fit a standard strategy for all. While it may be possible for human experts to identify strategies manually in classroom settings with sufficient student interaction, it is not possible to scale this up to big data. Therefore, we leverage advances in Machine Learning and AI methods to perform scalable strategy prediction that is also fair to students at all skill levels. Specifically, we develop an embedding called MVec where we learn a representation based on the mastery of students. We then cluster these embeddings with a non-parametric clustering method where we progressively learn clusters such that we group together instances that have approximately symmetrical strategies. The strategy prediction model is trained on instances sampled from these clusters. This ensures that we train the model over diverse strategies and also that strategies from a particular group do not bias the DNN model, thus allowing it to optimize its parameters over all groups. Using real world large-scale student interaction datasets from MATHia, we implement our approach using transformers and Node2Vec for learning the mastery embeddings and LSTMs for predicting strategies. We show that our approach can scale up to achieve high accuracy by training on a small sample of a large dataset and also has predictive equality, i.e., it can predict strategies equally well for learners at diverse skill levels.

Background: This study aimed to evaluate and compare the performance of classical machine learning models (CMLs) and large language models (LLMs) in predicting mortality associated with COVID-19 by utilizing a high-dimensional tabular dataset. Materials and Methods: We analyzed data from 9,134 COVID-19 patients collected across four hospitals. Seven CML models, including XGBoost and random forest (RF), were trained and evaluated. The structured data was converted into text for zero-shot classification by eight LLMs, including GPT-4 and Mistral-7b. Additionally, Mistral-7b was fine-tuned using the QLoRA approach to enhance its predictive capabilities. Results: Among the CML models, XGBoost and RF achieved the highest accuracy, with F1 scores of 0.87 for internal validation and 0.83 for external validation. In the LLM category, GPT-4 was the top performer with an F1 score of 0.43. Fine-tuning Mistral-7b significantly improved its recall from 1% to 79%, resulting in an F1 score of 0.74, which was stable during external validation. Conclusion: While LLMs show moderate performance in zero-shot classification, fine-tuning can significantly enhance their effectiveness, potentially aligning them closer to CML models. However, CMLs still outperform LLMs in high-dimensional tabular data tasks.

Stock Price Trend Prediction (SPTP) based on Limit Order Book (LOB) data is a fundamental challenge in financial markets. Despite advances in deep learning, existing models fail to generalize across different market conditions and struggle to reliably predict short-term trends. Surprisingly, by adapting a simple MLP-based architecture to LOB, we show that we surpass SoTA performance; thus, challenging the necessity of complex architectures. Unlike past work that shows robustness issues, we propose TLOB, a transformer-based model that uses a dual attention mechanism to capture spatial and temporal dependencies in LOB data. This allows it to adaptively focus on the market microstructure, making it particularly effective for longer-horizon predictions and volatile market conditions. We also introduce a new labeling method that improves on previous ones, removing the horizon bias. We evaluate TLOB's effectiveness using the established FI-2010 benchmark, which exceeds the state-of-the-art by an average of 3.7 F1-score(\%). Additionally, TLOB shows improvements on Tesla and Intel with a 1.3 and 7.7 increase in F1-score(\%), respectively. Additionally, we empirically show how stock price predictability has declined over time (-6.68 absolute points in F1-score(\%)), highlighting the growing market efficiencies. Predictability must be considered in relation to transaction costs, so we experimented with defining trends using an average spread, reflecting the primary transaction cost. The resulting performance deterioration underscores the complexity of translating trend classification into profitable trading strategies. We argue that our work provides new insights into the evolving landscape of stock price trend prediction and sets a strong foundation for future advancements in financial AI. We release the code at https://github.com/LeonardoBerti00/TLOB.

Modern machine learning (ML) systems demand substantial training data, often resorting to external sources. Nevertheless, this practice renders them vulnerable to backdoor poisoning attacks. Prior backdoor defense strategies have primarily focused on the identification of backdoored models or poisoned data characteristics, typically operating under the assumption of access to clean data. In this work, we delve into a relatively underexplored challenge: the automatic identification of backdoor data within a poisoned dataset, all under realistic conditions, i.e., without the need for additional clean data or without manually defining a threshold for backdoor detection. We draw an inspiration from the scaled prediction consistency (SPC) technique, which exploits the prediction invariance of poisoned data to an input scaling factor. Based on this, we pose the backdoor data identification problem as a hierarchical data splitting optimization problem, leveraging a novel SPC-based loss function as the primary optimization objective. Our innovation unfolds in several key aspects. First, we revisit the vanilla SPC method, unveiling its limitations in addressing the proposed backdoor identification problem. Subsequently, we develop a bi-level optimization-based approach to precisely identify backdoor data by minimizing the advanced SPC loss. Finally, we demonstrate the efficacy of our proposal against a spectrum of backdoor attacks, encompassing basic label-corrupted attacks as well as more sophisticated clean-label attacks, evaluated across various benchmark datasets. Experiment results show that our approach often surpasses the performance of current baselines in identifying backdoor data points, resulting in about 4%-36% improvement in average AUROC. Codes are available at https://github.com/OPTML-Group/BackdoorMSPC.

Predicting in-hospital mortality for intensive care unit (ICU) patients is key to final clinical outcomes. AI has shown advantaged accuracy but suffers from the lack of explainability. To address this issue, this paper proposes an eXplainable Multimodal Mortality Predictor (X-MMP) approaching an efficient, explainable AI solution for predicting in-hospital mortality via multimodal ICU data. We employ multimodal learning in our framework, which can receive heterogeneous inputs from clinical data and make decisions. Furthermore, we introduce an explainable method, namely Layer-Wise Propagation to Transformer, as a proper extension of the LRP method to Transformers, producing explanations over multimodal inputs and revealing the salient features attributed to prediction. Moreover, the contribution of each modality to clinical outcomes can be visualized, assisting clinicians in understanding the reasoning behind decision-making. We construct a multimodal dataset based on MIMIC-III and MIMIC-III Waveform Database Matched Subset. Comprehensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that our proposed framework can achieve reasonable interpretation with competitive prediction accuracy. In particular, our framework can be easily transferred to other clinical tasks, which facilitates the discovery of crucial factors in healthcare research.

In the field of decision trees, most previous studies have difficulty ensuring the statistical optimality of a prediction of new data and suffer from overfitting because trees are usually used only to represent prediction functions to be constructed from given data. In contrast, some studies, including this paper, used the trees to represent stochastic data observation processes behind given data. Moreover, they derived the statistically optimal prediction, which is robust against overfitting, based on the Bayesian decision theory by assuming a prior distribution for the trees. However, these studies still have a problem in computing this Bayes optimal prediction because it involves an infeasible summation for all division patterns of a feature space, which is represented by the trees and some parameters. In particular, an open problem is a summation with respect to combinations of division axes, i.e., the assignment of features to inner nodes of the tree. We solve this by a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, whose step size is adaptively tuned according to a posterior distribution for the trees.

Clinical trials are crucial for drug development but are time consuming, expensive, and often burdensome on patients. More importantly, clinical trials face uncertain outcomes due to issues with efficacy, safety, or problems with patient recruitment. If we were better at predicting the results of clinical trials, we could avoid having to run trials that will inevitably fail more resources could be devoted to trials that are likely to succeed. In this paper, we propose Hierarchical INteraction Network (HINT) for more general, clinical trial outcome predictions for all diseases based on a comprehensive and diverse set of web data including molecule information of the drugs, target disease information, trial protocol and biomedical knowledge. HINT first encode these multi-modal data into latent embeddings, where an imputation module is designed to handle missing data. Next, these embeddings will be fed into the knowledge embedding module to generate knowledge embeddings that are pretrained using external knowledge on pharmaco-kinetic properties and trial risk from the web. Then the interaction graph module will connect all the embedding via domain knowledge to fully capture various trial components and their complex relations as well as their influences on trial outcomes. Finally, HINT learns a dynamic attentive graph neural network to predict trial outcome. Comprehensive experimental results show that HINT achieves strong predictive performance, obtaining 0.772, 0.607, 0.623, 0.703 on PR-AUC for Phase I, II, III, and indication outcome prediction, respectively. It also consistently outperforms the best baseline method by up to 12.4\% on PR-AUC.

With the rapid development and evolution of sophisticated algorithms for statistical analysis of time series data, the research community has started spending considerable effort in technical analysis of such data. Forecasting is also an area which has witnessed a paradigm shift in its approach. In this work, we have used the time series of the index values of the Auto sector in India during January 2010 to December 2015 for a deeper understanding of the behavior of its three constituent components, e.g., the Trend, the Seasonal component, and the Random component. Based on this structural analysis, we have also designed three approaches for forecasting and also computed their accuracy in prediction using suitably chosen training and test data sets. The results clearly demonstrate the accuracy of our decomposition results and efficiency of our forecasting techniques, even in presence of a dominant Random component in the time series.

This study explores the potential of utilizing administrative claims data, combined with advanced machine learning and deep learning techniques, to predict the progression of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) to End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD). We analyze a comprehensive, 10-year dataset provided by a major health insurance organization to develop prediction models for multiple observation windows using traditional machine learning methods such as Random Forest and XGBoost as well as deep learning approaches such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Our findings demonstrate that the LSTM model, particularly with a 24-month observation window, exhibits superior performance in predicting ESRD progression, outperforming existing models in the literature. We further apply SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis to enhance interpretability, providing insights into the impact of individual features on predictions at the individual patient level. This study underscores the value of leveraging administrative claims data for CKD management and predicting ESRD progression.

Non-coding RNA structure and function are essential to understanding various biological processes, such as cell signaling, gene expression, and post-transcriptional regulations. These are all among the core problems in the RNA field. With the rapid growth of sequencing technology, we have accumulated a massive amount of unannotated RNA sequences. On the other hand, expensive experimental observatory results in only limited numbers of annotated data and 3D structures. Hence, it is still challenging to design computational methods for predicting their structures and functions. The lack of annotated data and systematic study causes inferior performance. To resolve the issue, we propose a novel RNA foundation model (RNA-FM) to take advantage of all the 23 million non-coding RNA sequences through self-supervised learning. Within this approach, we discover that the pre-trained RNA-FM could infer sequential and evolutionary information of non-coding RNAs without using any labels. Furthermore, we demonstrate RNA-FM's effectiveness by applying it to the downstream secondary/3D structure prediction, SARS-CoV-2 genome structure and evolution prediction, protein-RNA binding preference modeling, and gene expression regulation modeling. The comprehensive experiments show that the proposed method improves the RNA structural and functional modelling results significantly and consistently. Despite only being trained with unlabelled data, RNA-FM can serve as the foundational model for the field.

The increasing complexity of foundational models underscores the necessity for explainability, particularly for fine-tuning, the most widely used training method for adapting models to downstream tasks. Instance attribution, one type of explanation, attributes the model prediction to each training example by an instance score. However, the robustness of instance scores, specifically towards dataset resampling, has been overlooked. To bridge this gap, we propose a notion of robustness on the sign of the instance score. We theoretically and empirically demonstrate that the popular leave-one-out-based methods lack robustness, while the Shapley value behaves significantly better, but at a higher computational cost. Accordingly, we introduce an efficient fine-tuning-free approximation of the Shapley value (FreeShap) for instance attribution based on the neural tangent kernel. We empirically demonstrate that FreeShap outperforms other methods for instance attribution and other data-centric applications such as data removal, data selection, and wrong label detection, and further generalize our scale to large language models (LLMs). Our code is available at https://github.com/JTWang2000/FreeShap.

This study introduces DrivAerNet, a large-scale high-fidelity CFD dataset of 3D industry-standard car shapes, and RegDGCNN, a dynamic graph convolutional neural network model, both aimed at aerodynamic car design through machine learning. DrivAerNet, with its 4000 detailed 3D car meshes using 0.5 million surface mesh faces and comprehensive aerodynamic performance data comprising of full 3D pressure, velocity fields, and wall-shear stresses, addresses the critical need for extensive datasets to train deep learning models in engineering applications. It is 60\% larger than the previously available largest public dataset of cars, and is the only open-source dataset that also models wheels and underbody. RegDGCNN leverages this large-scale dataset to provide high-precision drag estimates directly from 3D meshes, bypassing traditional limitations such as the need for 2D image rendering or Signed Distance Fields (SDF). By enabling fast drag estimation in seconds, RegDGCNN facilitates rapid aerodynamic assessments, offering a substantial leap towards integrating data-driven methods in automotive design. Together, DrivAerNet and RegDGCNN promise to accelerate the car design process and contribute to the development of more efficient vehicles. To lay the groundwork for future innovations in the field, the dataset and code used in our study are publicly accessible at https://github.com/Mohamedelrefaie/DrivAerNet

Weather radar is the primary tool used by forecasters to detect and warn for tornadoes in near-real time. In order to assist forecasters in warning the public, several algorithms have been developed to automatically detect tornadic signatures in weather radar observations. Recently, Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, which learn directly from large amounts of labeled data, have been shown to be highly effective for this purpose. Since tornadoes are extremely rare events within the corpus of all available radar observations, the selection and design of training datasets for ML applications is critical for the performance, robustness, and ultimate acceptance of ML algorithms. This study introduces a new benchmark dataset, TorNet to support development of ML algorithms in tornado detection and prediction. TorNet contains full-resolution, polarimetric, Level-II WSR-88D data sampled from 10 years of reported storm events. A number of ML baselines for tornado detection are developed and compared, including a novel deep learning (DL) architecture capable of processing raw radar imagery without the need for manual feature extraction required for existing ML algorithms. Despite not benefiting from manual feature engineering or other preprocessing, the DL model shows increased detection performance compared to non-DL and operational baselines. The TorNet dataset, as well as source code and model weights of the DL baseline trained in this work, are made freely available.

Advances in large language models (LLMs) have empowered a variety of applications. However, there is still a significant gap in research when it comes to understanding and enhancing the capabilities of LLMs in the field of mental health. In this work, we present the first comprehensive evaluation of multiple LLMs, including Alpaca, Alpaca-LoRA, FLAN-T5, GPT-3.5, and GPT-4, on various mental health prediction tasks via online text data. We conduct a broad range of experiments, covering zero-shot prompting, few-shot prompting, and instruction fine-tuning. The results indicate a promising yet limited performance of LLMs with zero-shot and few-shot prompt designs for the mental health tasks. More importantly, our experiments show that instruction finetuning can significantly boost the performance of LLMs for all tasks simultaneously. Our best-finetuned models, Mental-Alpaca and Mental-FLAN-T5, outperform the best prompt design of GPT-3.5 (25 and 15 times bigger) by 10.9% on balanced accuracy and the best of GPT-4 (250 and 150 times bigger) by 4.8%. They further perform on par with the state-of-the-art task-specific language model. We also conduct an exploratory case study on LLMs' capability on the mental health reasoning tasks, illustrating the promising capability of certain models such as GPT-4. We summarize our findings into a set of action guidelines for potential methods to enhance LLMs' capability for mental health tasks. Meanwhile, we also emphasize the important limitations before achieving deployability in real-world mental health settings, such as known racial and gender bias. We highlight the important ethical risks accompanying this line of research.

Semiconductor lasers have been rapidly evolving to meet the demands of next-generation optical networks. This imposes much more stringent requirements on the laser reliability, which are dominated by degradation mechanisms (e.g., sudden degradation) limiting the semiconductor laser lifetime. Physics-based approaches are often used to characterize the degradation behavior analytically, yet explicit domain knowledge and accurate mathematical models are required. Building such models can be very challenging due to a lack of a full understanding of the complex physical processes inducing the degradation under various operating conditions. To overcome the aforementioned limitations, we propose a new data-driven approach, extracting useful insights from the operational monitored data to predict the degradation trend without requiring any specific knowledge or using any physical model. The proposed approach is based on an unsupervised technique, a conditional variational autoencoder, and validated using vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser (VCSEL) and tunable edge emitting laser reliability data. The experimental results confirm that our model (i) achieves a good degradation prediction and generalization performance by yielding an F1 score of 95.3%, (ii) outperforms several baseline ML based anomaly detection techniques, and (iii) helps to shorten the aging tests by early predicting the failed devices before the end of the test and thereby saving costs

Large language models (LLMs) offer a promising pre-screening tool, improving early disease detection and providing enhanced healthcare access for underprivileged communities. The early diagnosis of various diseases continues to be a significant challenge in healthcare, primarily due to the nonspecific nature of early symptoms, the shortage of expert medical practitioners, and the need for prolonged clinical evaluations, all of which can delay treatment and adversely affect patient outcomes. With impressive accuracy in prediction across a range of diseases, LLMs have the potential to revolutionize clinical pre-screening and decision-making for various medical conditions. In this work, we study the diagnostic capability of LLMs for Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) with real world patients data. Patient data was collected alongside diagnoses from medical experts, and the performance of LLMs was evaluated in comparison to expert diagnoses for RA disease prediction. We notice an interesting pattern in disease diagnosis and find an unexpected misalignment between prediction and explanation. We conduct a series of multi-round analyses using different LLM agents. The best-performing model accurately predicts rheumatoid arthritis (RA) diseases approximately 95\% of the time. However, when medical experts evaluated the reasoning generated by the model, they found that nearly 68\% of the reasoning was incorrect. This study highlights a clear misalignment between LLMs high prediction accuracy and its flawed reasoning, raising important questions about relying on LLM explanations in clinical settings. LLMs provide incorrect reasoning to arrive at the correct answer for RA disease diagnosis.

We present a novel data-driven simulation environment for modeling traffic in metropolitan street intersections. Using real-world tracking data collected over an extended period of time, we train trajectory forecasting models to learn agent interactions and environmental constraints that are difficult to capture conventionally. Trajectories of new agents are first coarsely generated by sampling from the spatial and temporal generative distributions, then refined using state-of-the-art trajectory forecasting models. The simulation can run either autonomously, or under explicit human control conditioned on the generative distributions. We present the experiments for a variety of model configurations. Under an iterative prediction scheme, the way-point-supervised TrajNet++ model obtained 0.36 Final Displacement Error (FDE) in 20 FPS on an NVIDIA A100 GPU.

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We first show that the marginal coverage guarantee of conformal prediction holds on imputed data for any missingness distribution and almost all imputation functions. However, we emphasize that the average coverage varies depending on the pattern of missing values: conformal methods tend to construct prediction intervals that under-cover the response conditionally to some missing patterns. This motivates our novel generalized conformalized quantile regression framework, missing data augmentation, which yields prediction intervals that are valid conditionally to the patterns of missing values, despite their exponential number. We then show that a universally consistent quantile regression algorithm trained on the imputed data is Bayes optimal for the pinball risk, thus achieving valid coverage conditionally to any given data point. Moreover, we examine the case of a linear model, which demonstrates the importance of our proposal in overcoming the heteroskedasticity induced by missing values. Using synthetic and data from critical care, we corroborate our theory and report improved performance of our methods.

Datasets scraped from the internet have been critical to the successes of large-scale machine learning. Yet, this very success puts the utility of future internet-derived datasets at potential risk, as model outputs begin to replace human annotations as a source of supervision. In this work, we first formalize a system where interactions with one model are recorded as history and scraped as training data in the future. We then analyze its stability over time by tracking changes to a test-time bias statistic (e.g. gender bias of model predictions). We find that the degree of bias amplification is closely linked to whether the model's outputs behave like samples from the training distribution, a behavior which we characterize and define as consistent calibration. Experiments in three conditional prediction scenarios - image classification, visual role-labeling, and language generation - demonstrate that models that exhibit a sampling-like behavior are more calibrated and thus more stable. Based on this insight, we propose an intervention to help calibrate and stabilize unstable feedback systems. Code is available at https://github.com/rtaori/data_feedback.

For a long-time, researchers have been developing a reliable and accurate predictive model for stock price prediction. According to the literature, if predictive models are correctly designed and refined, they can painstakingly and faithfully estimate future stock values. This paper demonstrates a set of time series, econometric, and various learning-based models for stock price prediction. The data of Infosys, ICICI, and SUN PHARMA from the period of January 2004 to December 2019 was used here for training and testing the models to know which model performs best in which sector. One time series model (Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing), one econometric model (ARIMA), two machine Learning models (Random Forest and MARS), and two deep learning-based models (simple RNN and LSTM) have been included in this paper. MARS has been proved to be the best performing machine learning model, while LSTM has proved to be the best performing deep learning model. But overall, for all three sectors - IT (on Infosys data), Banking (on ICICI data), and Health (on SUN PHARMA data), MARS has proved to be the best performing model in sales forecasting.

Microsoft Azure is dedicated to guarantee high quality of service to its customers, in particular, during periods of high customer activity, while controlling cost. We employ a Data Science (DS) driven solution to predict user load and leverage these predictions to optimize resource allocation. To this end, we built the Seagull infrastructure that processes per-server telemetry, validates the data, trains and deploys ML models. The models are used to predict customer load per server (24h into the future), and optimize service operations. Seagull continually re-evaluates accuracy of predictions, fallback to previously known good models and triggers alerts as appropriate. We deployed this infrastructure in production for PostgreSQL and MySQL servers across all Azure regions, and applied it to the problem of scheduling server backups during low-load time. This minimizes interference with user-induced load and improves customer experience.

High-precision modeling of systems is one of the main areas of industrial data analysis. Models of systems, their digital twins, are used to predict their behavior under various conditions. We have developed several models of a storage system using machine learning-based generative models. The system consists of several components: hard disk drive (HDD) and solid-state drive (SSD) storage pools with different RAID schemes and cache. Each storage component is represented by a probabilistic model that describes the probability distribution of the component performance in terms of IOPS and latency, depending on their configuration and external data load parameters. The results of the experiments demonstrate the errors of 4-10 % for IOPS and 3-16 % for latency predictions depending on the components and models of the system. The predictions show up to 0.99 Pearson correlation with Little's law, which can be used for unsupervised reliability checks of the models. In addition, we present novel data sets that can be used for benchmarking regression algorithms, conditional generative models, and uncertainty estimation methods in machine learning.

In many industries, predicting metric outcomes of large systems is a fundamental problem, driven largely by traditional tabular regression. However, such methods struggle on complex systems data in the wild such as configuration files or system logs, where feature engineering is often infeasible. We propose text-to-text regression as a general, scalable alternative. For predicting resource efficiency on Borg, Google's massive compute cluster scheduling system, a 60M parameter encoder-decoder, trained from random initialization, achieves up to a near perfect 0.99 (0.9 average) rank correlation across the entire fleet, and 100x lower MSE than tabular approaches. The model also easily adapts to new tasks in only 500 few-shot examples and captures the densities of complex outcome distributions. Ablation studies highlight the importance of using encoders, increasing sequence length, and the model's inherent uncertainty quantification. These findings pave the way for universal simulators of real-world outcomes.

Can human reading comprehension be assessed from eye movements in reading? In this work, we address this longstanding question using large-scale eyetracking data over textual materials that are geared towards behavioral analyses of reading comprehension. We focus on a fine-grained and largely unaddressed task of predicting reading comprehension from eye movements at the level of a single question over a passage. We tackle this task using three new multimodal language models, as well as a battery of prior models from the literature. We evaluate the models' ability to generalize to new textual items, new participants, and the combination of both, in two different reading regimes, ordinary reading and information seeking. The evaluations suggest that although the task is highly challenging, eye movements contain useful signals for fine-grained prediction of reading comprehension. Code and data will be made publicly available.

Predicting disease trajectories from electronic health records (EHRs) is a complex task due to major challenges such as data non-stationarity, high granularity of medical codes, and integration of multimodal data. EHRs contain both structured data, such as diagnostic codes, and unstructured data, such as clinical notes, which hold essential information often overlooked. Current models, primarily based on structured data, struggle to capture the complete medical context of patients, resulting in a loss of valuable information. To address this issue, we propose an approach that integrates unstructured clinical notes into transformer-based deep learning models for sequential disease prediction. This integration enriches the representation of patients' medical histories, thereby improving the accuracy of diagnosis predictions. Experiments on MIMIC-IV datasets demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms traditional models relying solely on structured data.

Recent advancements in sequence prediction have significantly improved the accuracy of video data interpretation; however, existing models often overlook the potential of attention-based mechanisms for next-frame prediction. This study introduces the Vision Augmentation Prediction Autoencoder with Attention Design (VAPAAD), an innovative approach that integrates attention mechanisms into sequence prediction, enabling nuanced analysis and understanding of temporal dynamics in video sequences. Utilizing the Moving MNIST dataset, we demonstrate VAPAAD's robust performance and superior handling of complex temporal data compared to traditional methods. VAPAAD combines data augmentation, ConvLSTM2D layers, and a custom-built self-attention mechanism to effectively focus on salient features within a sequence, enhancing predictive accuracy and context-aware analysis. This methodology not only adheres to human cognitive processes during video interpretation but also addresses limitations in conventional models, which often struggle with the variability inherent in video sequences. The experimental results confirm that VAPAAD outperforms existing models, especially in integrating attention mechanisms, which significantly improve predictive performance.

Ribosomally synthesized and post-translationally modified peptide (RiPP) biosynthetic enzymes often exhibit promiscuous substrate preferences that cannot be reduced to simple rules. Large language models are promising tools for predicting such peptide fitness landscapes. However, state-of-the-art protein language models are trained on relatively few peptide sequences. A previous study comprehensively profiled the peptide substrate preferences of LazBF (a two-component serine dehydratase) and LazDEF (a three-component azole synthetase) from the lactazole biosynthetic pathway. We demonstrated that masked language modeling of LazBF substrate preferences produced language model embeddings that improved downstream classification models of both LazBF and LazDEF substrates. Similarly, masked language modeling of LazDEF substrate preferences produced embeddings that improved the performance of classification models of both LazBF and LazDEF substrates. Our results suggest that the models learned functional forms that are transferable between distinct enzymatic transformations that act within the same biosynthetic pathway. Our transfer learning method improved performance and data efficiency in data-scarce scenarios. We then fine-tuned models on each data set and showed that the fine-tuned models provided interpretable insight that we anticipate will facilitate the design of substrate libraries that are compatible with desired RiPP biosynthetic pathways.

Traffic prediction is a typical spatio-temporal data mining task and has great significance to the public transportation system. Considering the demand for its grand application, we recognize key factors for an ideal spatio-temporal prediction method: efficient, lightweight, and effective. However, the current deep model-based spatio-temporal prediction solutions generally own intricate architectures with cumbersome optimization, which can hardly meet these expectations. To accomplish the above goals, we propose an intuitive and novel framework, MLPST, a pure multi-layer perceptron architecture for traffic prediction. Specifically, we first capture spatial relationships from both local and global receptive fields. Then, temporal dependencies in different intervals are comprehensively considered. Through compact and swift MLP processing, MLPST can well capture the spatial and temporal dependencies while requiring only linear computational complexity, as well as model parameters that are more than an order of magnitude lower than baselines. Extensive experiments validated the superior effectiveness and efficiency of MLPST against advanced baselines, and among models with optimal accuracy, MLPST achieves the best time and space efficiency.

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach for stock price prediction using machine learning and deep learning-based methods. We select the NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange of India, over a period of four years, from January 2015 till December 2019. Based on the NIFTY data during the said period, we build various predictive models using machine learning approaches, and then use those models to predict the Close value of NIFTY 50 for the year 2019, with a forecast horizon of one week. For predicting the NIFTY index movement patterns, we use a number of classification methods, while for forecasting the actual Close values of NIFTY index, various regression models are built. We, then, augment our predictive power of the models by building a deep learning-based regression model using Convolutional Neural Network with a walk-forward validation. The CNN model is fine-tuned for its parameters so that the validation loss stabilizes with increasing number of iterations, and the training and validation accuracies converge. We exploit the power of CNN in forecasting the future NIFTY index values using three approaches which differ in number of variables used in forecasting, number of sub-models used in the overall models and, size of the input data for training the models. Extensive results are presented on various metrics for all classification and regression models. The results clearly indicate that CNN-based multivariate forecasting model is the most effective and accurate in predicting the movement of NIFTY index values with a weekly forecast horizon.

Complex prediction models such as deep learning are the output from fitting machine learning, neural networks, or AI models to a set of training data. These are now standard tools in science. A key challenge with the current generation of models is that they are highly parameterized, which makes describing and interpreting the prediction strategies difficult. We use topological data analysis to transform these complex prediction models into pictures representing a topological view. The result is a map of the predictions that enables inspection. The methods scale up to large datasets across different domains and enable us to detect labeling errors in training data, understand generalization in image classification, and inspect predictions of likely pathogenic mutations in the BRCA1 gene.

This paper introduces the FinSen dataset that revolutionizes financial market analysis by integrating economic and financial news articles from 197 countries with stock market data. The dataset's extensive coverage spans 15 years from 2007 to 2023 with temporal information, offering a rich, global perspective with 160,000 records on financial market news. Our study leverages causally validated sentiment scores and LSTM models to enhance market forecast accuracy and reliability. Utilizing the FinSen dataset, we introduce an innovative Focal Calibration Loss, reducing Expected Calibration Error (ECE) to 3.34 percent with the DAN 3 model. This not only improves prediction accuracy but also aligns probabilistic forecasts closely with real outcomes, crucial for the financial sector where predicted probability is paramount. Our approach demonstrates the effectiveness of combining sentiment analysis with precise calibration techniques for trustworthy financial forecasting where the cost of misinterpretation can be high. Finsen Data can be found at [this github URL](https://github.com/EagleAdelaide/FinSen_Dataset.git).

Explaining predictions based on multivariate time series data carries the additional difficulty of handling not only multiple features, but also time dependencies. It matters not only what happened, but also when, and the same feature could have a very different impact on a prediction depending on this time information. Previous work has used perturbation-based saliency methods to tackle this issue, perturbing an input using a trainable mask to discover which features at which times are driving the predictions. However these methods introduce fixed perturbations, inspired from similar methods on static data, while there seems to be little motivation to do so on temporal data. In this work, we aim to explain predictions by learning not only masks, but also associated perturbations. We empirically show that learning these perturbations significantly improves the quality of these explanations on time series data.

Comprehensively understanding and accurately predicting the performance of large language models across diverse downstream tasks has emerged as a pivotal challenge in NLP research. The pioneering scaling law on downstream works demonstrated intrinsic similarities within model families and utilized such similarities for performance prediction. However, they tend to overlook the similarities between model families and only consider design factors listed in the original scaling law. To overcome these limitations, we introduce a novel framework, Collaborative Performance Prediction (CPP), which significantly enhances prediction accuracy by leveraging the historical performance of various models on downstream tasks and other design factors for both model and task. We also collect a collaborative data sourced from online platforms containing both historical performance and additional design factors. With the support of the collaborative data, CPP not only surpasses traditional scaling laws in predicting the performance of scaled LLMs but also facilitates a detailed analysis of factor importance, an area previously overlooked.

Data of sequential nature arise in many application domains in forms of, e.g. textual data, DNA sequences, and software execution traces. Different research disciplines have developed methods to learn sequence models from such datasets: (i) in the machine learning field methods such as (hidden) Markov models and recurrent neural networks have been developed and successfully applied to a wide-range of tasks, (ii) in process mining process discovery techniques aim to generate human-interpretable descriptive models, and (iii) in the grammar inference field the focus is on finding descriptive models in the form of formal grammars. Despite their different focuses, these fields share a common goal - learning a model that accurately describes the behavior in the underlying data. Those sequence models are generative, i.e, they can predict what elements are likely to occur after a given unfinished sequence. So far, these fields have developed mainly in isolation from each other and no comparison exists. This paper presents an interdisciplinary experimental evaluation that compares sequence modeling techniques on the task of next-element prediction on four real-life sequence datasets. The results indicate that machine learning techniques that generally have no aim at interpretability in terms of accuracy outperform techniques from the process mining and grammar inference fields that aim to yield interpretable models.

This paper reviews the Challenge on Video Saliency Prediction at AIM 2024. The goal of the participants was to develop a method for predicting accurate saliency maps for the provided set of video sequences. Saliency maps are widely exploited in various applications, including video compression, quality assessment, visual perception studies, the advertising industry, etc. For this competition, a previously unused large-scale audio-visual mouse saliency (AViMoS) dataset of 1500 videos with more than 70 observers per video was collected using crowdsourced mouse tracking. The dataset collection methodology has been validated using conventional eye-tracking data and has shown high consistency. Over 30 teams registered in the challenge, and there are 7 teams that submitted the results in the final phase. The final phase solutions were tested and ranked by commonly used quality metrics on a private test subset. The results of this evaluation and the descriptions of the solutions are presented in this report. All data, including the private test subset, is made publicly available on the challenge homepage - https://challenges.videoprocessing.ai/challenges/video-saliency-prediction.html.

With the increasing demands for safety, efficiency, and sustainability in global shipping, Automatic Identification System (AIS) data plays an increasingly important role in maritime monitoring. AIS data contains spatial-temporal variation patterns of vessels that hold significant research value in the marine domain. However, due to its massive scale, the full potential of AIS data has long remained untapped. With its powerful sequence modeling capabilities, particularly its ability to capture long-range dependencies and complex temporal dynamics, the Transformer model has emerged as an effective tool for processing AIS data. Therefore, this paper reviews the research on Transformer-based AIS data-driven maritime monitoring, providing a comprehensive overview of the current applications of Transformer models in the marine field. The focus is on Transformer-based trajectory prediction methods, behavior detection, and prediction techniques. Additionally, this paper collects and organizes publicly available AIS datasets from the reviewed papers, performing data filtering, cleaning, and statistical analysis. The statistical results reveal the operational characteristics of different vessel types, providing data support for further research on maritime monitoring tasks. Finally, we offer valuable suggestions for future research, identifying two promising research directions. Datasets are available at https://github.com/eyesofworld/Maritime-Monitoring.

Social media popularity prediction task aims to predict the popularity of posts on social media platforms, which has a positive driving effect on application scenarios such as content optimization, digital marketing and online advertising. Though many studies have made significant progress, few of them pay much attention to the integration between popularity prediction with temporal alignment. In this paper, with exploring YouTube's multilingual and multi-modal content, we construct a new social media temporal popularity prediction benchmark, namely SMTPD, and suggest a baseline framework for temporal popularity prediction. Through data analysis and experiments, we verify that temporal alignment and early popularity play crucial roles in social media popularity prediction for not only deepening the understanding of temporal dynamics of popularity in social media but also offering a suggestion about developing more effective prediction models in this field. Code is available at https://github.com/zhuwei321/SMTPD.

Central to our understanding of chemical reactivity is the principle of mass conservation, which is fundamental for ensuring physical consistency, balancing equations, and guiding reaction design. However, data-driven computational models for tasks such as reaction product prediction rarely abide by this most basic constraint. In this work, we recast the problem of reaction prediction as a problem of electron redistribution using the modern deep generative framework of flow matching. Our model, FlowER, overcomes limitations inherent in previous approaches by enforcing exact mass conservation, thereby resolving hallucinatory failure modes, recovering mechanistic reaction sequences for unseen substrate scaffolds, and generalizing effectively to out-of-domain reaction classes with extremely data-efficient fine-tuning. FlowER additionally enables estimation of thermodynamic or kinetic feasibility and manifests a degree of chemical intuition in reaction prediction tasks. This inherently interpretable framework represents a significant step in bridging the gap between predictive accuracy and mechanistic understanding in data-driven reaction outcome prediction.

Large recommendation models (LRMs) are fundamental to the multi-billion dollar online advertising industry, processing massive datasets of hundreds of billions of examples before transitioning to continuous online training to adapt to rapidly changing user behavior. The massive scale of data directly impacts both computational costs and the speed at which new methods can be evaluated (R&D velocity). This paper presents actionable principles and high-level frameworks to guide practitioners in optimizing training data requirements. These strategies have been successfully deployed in Google's largest Ads CTR prediction models and are broadly applicable beyond LRMs. We outline the concept of data convergence, describe methods to accelerate this convergence, and finally, detail how to optimally balance training data volume with model size.

A data-driven model (DDM) suitable for regional weather forecasting applications is presented. The model extends the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System by introducing a stretched-grid architecture that dedicates higher resolution over a regional area of interest and maintains a lower resolution elsewhere on the globe. The model is based on graph neural networks, which naturally affords arbitrary multi-resolution grid configurations. The model is applied to short-range weather prediction for the Nordics, producing forecasts at 2.5 km spatial and 6 h temporal resolution. The model is pre-trained on 43 years of global ERA5 data at 31 km resolution and is further refined using 3.3 years of 2.5 km resolution operational analyses from the MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS). The performance of the model is evaluated using surface observations from measurement stations across Norway and is compared to short-range weather forecasts from MEPS. The DDM outperforms both the control run and the ensemble mean of MEPS for 2 m temperature. The model also produces competitive precipitation and wind speed forecasts, but is shown to underestimate extreme events.

The difficulty of monitoring biodiversity at fine scales and over large areas limits ecological knowledge and conservation efforts. To fill this gap, Species Distribution Models (SDMs) predict species across space from spatially explicit features. Yet, they face the challenge of integrating the rich but heterogeneous data made available over the past decade, notably millions of opportunistic species observations and standardized surveys, as well as multi-modal remote sensing data. In light of that, we have designed and developed a new European-scale dataset for SDMs at high spatial resolution (10-50 m), including more than 10k species (i.e., most of the European flora). The dataset comprises 5M heterogeneous Presence-Only records and 90k exhaustive Presence-Absence survey records, all accompanied by diverse environmental rasters (e.g., elevation, human footprint, and soil) that are traditionally used in SDMs. In addition, it provides Sentinel-2 RGB and NIR satellite images with 10 m resolution, a 20-year time-series of climatic variables, and satellite time-series from the Landsat program. In addition to the data, we provide an openly accessible SDM benchmark (hosted on Kaggle), which has already attracted an active community and a set of strong baselines for single predictor/modality and multimodal approaches. All resources, e.g., the dataset, pre-trained models, and baseline methods (in the form of notebooks), are available on Kaggle, allowing one to start with our dataset literally with two mouse clicks.

In speech generation tasks, human subjective ratings, usually referred to as the opinion score, are considered the "gold standard" for speech quality evaluation, with the mean opinion score (MOS) serving as the primary evaluation metric. Due to the high cost of human annotation, several MOS prediction systems have emerged in the speech domain, demonstrating good performance. These MOS prediction models are trained using annotations from previous speech-related challenges. However, compared to the speech domain, the singing domain faces data scarcity and stricter copyright protections, leading to a lack of high-quality MOS-annotated datasets for singing. To address this, we propose SingMOS, a high-quality and diverse MOS dataset for singing, covering a range of Chinese and Japanese datasets. These synthesized vocals are generated using state-of-the-art models in singing synthesis, conversion, or resynthesis tasks and are rated by professional annotators alongside real vocals. Data analysis demonstrates the diversity and reliability of our dataset. Additionally, we conduct further exploration on SingMOS, providing insights for singing MOS prediction and guidance for the continued expansion of SingMOS.

This study presents an innovative approach for predicting cryptocurrency time series, specifically focusing on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin. The methodology integrates the use of technical indicators, a Performer neural network, and BiLSTM (Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory) to capture temporal dynamics and extract significant features from raw cryptocurrency data. The application of technical indicators, such facilitates the extraction of intricate patterns, momentum, volatility, and trends. The Performer neural network, employing Fast Attention Via positive Orthogonal Random features (FAVOR+), has demonstrated superior computational efficiency and scalability compared to the traditional Multi-head attention mechanism in Transformer models. Additionally, the integration of BiLSTM in the feedforward network enhances the model's capacity to capture temporal dynamics in the data, processing it in both forward and backward directions. This is particularly advantageous for time series data where past and future data points can influence the current state. The proposed method has been applied to the hourly and daily timeframes of the major cryptocurrencies and its performance has been benchmarked against other methods documented in the literature. The results underscore the potential of the proposed method to outperform existing models, marking a significant progression in the field of cryptocurrency price prediction.

Human choice prediction in economic contexts is crucial for applications in marketing, finance, public policy, and more. This task, however, is often constrained by the difficulties in acquiring human choice data. With most experimental economics studies focusing on simple choice settings, the AI community has explored whether LLMs can substitute for humans in these predictions and examined more complex experimental economics settings. However, a key question remains: can LLMs generate training data for human choice prediction? We explore this in language-based persuasion games, a complex economic setting involving natural language in strategic interactions. Our experiments show that models trained on LLM-generated data can effectively predict human behavior in these games and even outperform models trained on actual human data.

Epilepsy is a common disease of the nervous system. Timely prediction of seizures and intervention treatment can significantly reduce the accidental injury of patients and protect the life and health of patients. This paper presents a neuromorphic Spiking Convolutional Transformer, named Spiking Conformer, to detect and predict epileptic seizure segments from scalped long-term electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings. We report evaluation results from the Spiking Conformer model using the Boston Children's Hospital-MIT (CHB-MIT) EEG dataset. By leveraging spike-based addition operations, the Spiking Conformer significantly reduces the classification computational cost compared to the non-spiking model. Additionally, we introduce an approximate spiking neuron layer to further reduce spike-triggered neuron updates by nearly 38% without sacrificing accuracy. Using raw EEG data as input, the proposed Spiking Conformer achieved an average sensitivity rate of 94.9% and a specificity rate of 99.3% for the seizure detection task, and 96.8%, 89.5% for the seizure prediction task, and needs >10x fewer operations compared to the non-spiking equivalent model.

Emotion prediction is the field of study to understand human emotions. Existing methods focus on modalities like text, audio, facial expressions, etc., which could be private to the user. Emotion can be derived from the subject's psychological data as well. Various approaches that employ combinations of physiological sensors for emotion recognition have been proposed. Yet, not all sensors are simple to use and handy for individuals in their daily lives. Thus, we propose a system to predict user emotion using smartwatch sensors. We design a framework to collect ground truth in real-time utilizing a mix of English and regional language-based videos to invoke emotions in participants and collect the data. Further, we modeled the problem as binary classification due to the limited dataset size and experimented with multiple machine-learning models. We also did an ablation study to understand the impact of features including Heart Rate, Accelerometer, and Gyroscope sensor data on mood. From the experimental results, Multi-Layer Perceptron has shown a maximum accuracy of 93.75 percent for pleasant-unpleasant (high/low valence classification) moods.

TypeScript and Python are two programming languages that support optional type annotations, which are useful but tedious to introduce and maintain. This has motivated automated type prediction: given an untyped program, produce a well-typed output program. Large language models (LLMs) are promising for type prediction, but there are challenges: fill-in-the-middle performs poorly, programs may not fit into the context window, generated types may not type check, and it is difficult to measure how well-typed the output program is. We address these challenges by building OpenTau, a search-based approach for type prediction that leverages large language models. We propose a new metric for type prediction quality, give a tree-based program decomposition that searches a space of generated types, and present fill-in-the-type fine-tuning for LLMs. We evaluate our work with a new dataset for TypeScript type prediction, and show that 47.4% of files type check (14.5% absolute improvement) with an overall rate of 3.3 type errors per file. All code, data, and models are available at: https://github.com/GammaTauAI/opentau.

The growing popularity of data mining catalyses the researchers to explore various exciting aspects of education. Early prediction of student performance is an emerging area among them. The researchers have used various predictors in performance modelling studies. Although prior cognition can affect student performance, establishing their relationship is still an open research challenge. Quantifying the knowledge from readily available data is the major challenge here. We have proposed a semantic approach for this purpose. Association mining on nearly 0.35 million observations establishes that prior cognition impacts the student performance. The proposed approach of measuring domain knowledge can help the early performance modelling studies to use it as a predictor.

Motivation: The activity of the adaptive immune system is governed by T-cells and their specific T-cell receptors (TCR), which selectively recognize foreign antigens. Recent advances in experimental techniques have enabled sequencing of TCRs and their antigenic targets (epitopes), allowing to research the missing link between TCR sequence and epitope binding specificity. Scarcity of data and a large sequence space make this task challenging, and to date only models limited to a small set of epitopes have achieved good performance. Here, we establish a k-nearest-neighbor (K-NN) classifier as a strong baseline and then propose TITAN (Tcr epITope bimodal Attention Networks), a bimodal neural network that explicitly encodes both TCR sequences and epitopes to enable the independent study of generalization capabilities to unseen TCRs and/or epitopes. Results: By encoding epitopes at the atomic level with SMILES sequences, we leverage transfer learning and data augmentation to enrich the input data space and boost performance. TITAN achieves high performance in the prediction of specificity of unseen TCRs (ROC-AUC 0.87 in 10-fold CV) and surpasses the results of the current state-of-the-art (ImRex) by a large margin. Notably, our Levenshtein-distance-based K-NN classifier also exhibits competitive performance on unseen TCRs. While the generalization to unseen epitopes remains challenging, we report two major breakthroughs. First, by dissecting the attention heatmaps, we demonstrate that the sparsity of available epitope data favors an implicit treatment of epitopes as classes. This may be a general problem that limits unseen epitope performance for sufficiently complex models. Second, we show that TITAN nevertheless exhibits significantly improved performance on unseen epitopes and is capable of focusing attention on chemically meaningful molecular structures.

To reject the Efficient Market Hypothesis a set of 5 technical indicators and 23 fundamental indicators was identified to establish the possibility of generating excess returns on the stock market. Leveraging these data points and various classification machine learning models, trading data of the 505 equities on the US S&P500 over the past 20 years was analysed to develop a classifier effective for our cause. From any given day, we were able to predict the direction of change in price by 1% up to 10 days in the future. The predictions had an overall accuracy of 83.62% with a precision of 85% for buy signals and a recall of 100% for sell signals. Moreover, we grouped equities by their sector and repeated the experiment to see if grouping similar assets together positively effected the results but concluded that it showed no significant improvements in the performance rejecting the idea of sector-based analysis. Also, using feature ranking we could identify an even smaller set of 6 indicators while maintaining similar accuracies as that from the original 28 features and also uncovered the importance of buy, hold and sell analyst ratings as they came out to be the top contributors in the model. Finally, to evaluate the effectiveness of the classifier in real-life situations, it was backtested on FAANG equities using a modest trading strategy where it generated high returns of above 60% over the term of the testing dataset. In conclusion, our proposed methodology with the combination of purposefully picked features shows an improvement over the previous studies, and our model predicts the direction of 1% price changes on the 10th day with high confidence and with enough buffer to even build a robotic trading system.

Accurately predicting conversions in advertisements is generally a challenging task, because such conversions do not occur frequently. In this paper, we propose a new framework to support creating high-performing ad creatives, including the accurate prediction of ad creative text conversions before delivering to the consumer. The proposed framework includes three key ideas: multi-task learning, conditional attention, and attention highlighting. Multi-task learning is an idea for improving the prediction accuracy of conversion, which predicts clicks and conversions simultaneously, to solve the difficulty of data imbalance. Furthermore, conditional attention focuses attention of each ad creative with the consideration of its genre and target gender, thus improving conversion prediction accuracy. Attention highlighting visualizes important words and/or phrases based on conditional attention. We evaluated the proposed framework with actual delivery history data (14,000 creatives displayed more than a certain number of times from Gunosy Inc.), and confirmed that these ideas improve the prediction performance of conversions, and visualize noteworthy words according to the creatives' attributes.

Backward compatibility of model predictions is a desired property when updating a machine learning driven application. It allows to seamlessly improve the underlying model without introducing regression bugs. In classification tasks these bugs occur in the form of negative flips. This means an instance that was correctly classified by the old model is now classified incorrectly by the updated model. This has direct negative impact on the user experience of such systems e.g. a frequently used voice assistant query is suddenly misclassified. A common reason to update the model is when new training data becomes available and needs to be incorporated. Simply retraining the model with the updated data introduces the unwanted negative flips. We study the problem of regression during data updates and propose Backward Compatible Weight Interpolation (BCWI). This method interpolates between the weights of the old and new model and we show in extensive experiments that it reduces negative flips without sacrificing the improved accuracy of the new model. BCWI is straight forward to implement and does not increase inference cost. We also explore the use of importance weighting during interpolation and averaging the weights of multiple new models in order to further reduce negative flips.

Historical maps are invaluable for analyzing long-term changes in transportation and spatial development, offering a rich source of data for evolutionary studies. However, digitizing and classifying road networks from these maps is often expensive and time-consuming, limiting their widespread use. Recent advancements in deep learning have made automatic road extraction from historical maps feasible, yet these methods typically require large amounts of labeled training data. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel framework that integrates deep learning with geoinformation, computer-based painting, and image processing methodologies. This framework enables the extraction and classification of roads from historical maps using only road geometries without needing road class labels for training. The process begins with training of a binary segmentation model to extract road geometries, followed by morphological operations, skeletonization, vectorization, and filtering algorithms. Synthetic training data is then generated by a painting function that artificially re-paints road segments using predefined symbology for road classes. Using this synthetic data, a deep ensemble is trained to generate pixel-wise probabilities for road classes to mitigate distribution shift. These predictions are then discretized along the extracted road geometries. Subsequently, further processing is employed to classify entire roads, enabling the identification of potential changes in road classes and resulting in a labeled road class dataset. Our method achieved completeness and correctness scores of over 94% and 92%, respectively, for road class 2, the most prevalent class in the two Siegfried Map sheets from Switzerland used for testing. This research offers a powerful tool for urban planning and transportation decision-making by efficiently extracting and classifying roads from historical maps.

Misclassification detection is an important problem in machine learning, as it allows for the identification of instances where the model's predictions are unreliable. However, conventional uncertainty measures such as Shannon entropy do not provide an effective way to infer the real uncertainty associated with the model's predictions. In this paper, we introduce a novel data-driven measure of uncertainty relative to an observer for misclassification detection. By learning patterns in the distribution of soft-predictions, our uncertainty measure can identify misclassified samples based on the predicted class probabilities. Interestingly, according to the proposed measure, soft-predictions corresponding to misclassified instances can carry a large amount of uncertainty, even though they may have low Shannon entropy. We demonstrate empirical improvements over multiple image classification tasks, outperforming state-of-the-art misclassification detection methods.

Event extraction requires high-quality expert human annotations, which are usually expensive. Therefore, learning a data-efficient event extraction model that can be trained with only a few labeled examples has become a crucial challenge. In this paper, we focus on low-resource end-to-end event extraction and propose DEGREE, a data-efficient model that formulates event extraction as a conditional generation problem. Given a passage and a manually designed prompt, DEGREE learns to summarize the events mentioned in the passage into a natural sentence that follows a predefined pattern. The final event predictions are then extracted from the generated sentence with a deterministic algorithm. DEGREE has three advantages to learn well with less training data. First, our designed prompts provide semantic guidance for DEGREE to leverage DEGREE and thus better capture the event arguments. Moreover, DEGREE is capable of using additional weakly-supervised information, such as the description of events encoded in the prompts. Finally, DEGREE learns triggers and arguments jointly in an end-to-end manner, which encourages the model to better utilize the shared knowledge and dependencies among them. Our experimental results demonstrate the strong performance of DEGREE for low-resource event extraction.

The recent DeepSeek-R1 has showcased the emergence of reasoning capabilities in LLMs through reinforcement learning (RL) with rule-based rewards. Building on this idea, we are the first to explore how rule-based RL can enhance the reasoning capabilities of multimodal large language models (MLLMs) for graphic user interface (GUI) action prediction tasks. To this end, we curate a small yet high-quality dataset of 136 challenging tasks, encompassing five common action types on mobile devices. We also introduce a unified rule-based action reward, enabling model optimization via policy-based algorithms such as Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed data-efficient model, UI-R1-3B, achieves substantial improvements on both in-domain (ID) and out-of-domain (OOD) tasks. Specifically, on the ID benchmark AndroidControl, the action type accuracy improves by 15%, while grounding accuracy increases by 10.3%, compared with the base model (i.e. Qwen2.5-VL-3B). On the OOD GUI grounding benchmark ScreenSpot-Pro, our model surpasses the base model by 6.0% and achieves competitive performance with larger models (e.g., OS-Atlas-7B), which are trained via supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on 76K data. These results underscore the potential of rule-based reinforcement learning to advance GUI understanding and control, paving the way for future research in this domain.

Reasoning is a fundamental capability of Large Language Models. While prior research predominantly focuses on enhancing narrow skills like math or code generation, improving performance on many other reasoning tasks remains challenging due to sparse and fragmented training data. To address this issue, we propose CodeI/O, a novel approach that systematically condenses diverse reasoning patterns inherently embedded in contextually-grounded codes, through transforming the original code into a code input-output prediction format. By training models to predict inputs/outputs given code and test cases entirely in natural language as Chain-of-Thought (CoT) rationales, we expose them to universal reasoning primitives -- like logic flow planning, state-space searching, decision tree traversal, and modular decomposition -- while decoupling structured reasoning from code-specific syntax and preserving procedural rigor. Experimental results demonstrate CodeI/O leads to consistent improvements across symbolic, scientific, logic, math & numerical, and commonsense reasoning tasks. By matching the existing ground-truth outputs or re-executing the code with predicted inputs, we can verify each prediction and further enhance the CoTs through multi-turn revision, resulting in CodeI/O++ and achieving higher performance. Our data and models are available at https://github.com/hkust-nlp/CodeIO.

We cast real-world humanoid control as a next token prediction problem, akin to predicting the next word in language. Our model is a causal transformer trained via autoregressive prediction of sensorimotor trajectories. To account for the multi-modal nature of the data, we perform prediction in a modality-aligned way, and for each input token predict the next token from the same modality. This general formulation enables us to leverage data with missing modalities, like video trajectories without actions. We train our model on a collection of simulated trajectories coming from prior neural network policies, model-based controllers, motion capture data, and YouTube videos of humans. We show that our model enables a full-sized humanoid to walk in San Francisco zero-shot. Our model can transfer to the real world even when trained on only 27 hours of walking data, and can generalize to commands not seen during training like walking backward. These findings suggest a promising path toward learning challenging real-world control tasks by generative modeling of sensorimotor trajectories.

We introduce UniOcc, a comprehensive, unified benchmark for occupancy forecasting (i.e., predicting future occupancies based on historical information) and current-frame occupancy prediction from camera images. UniOcc unifies data from multiple real-world datasets (i.e., nuScenes, Waymo) and high-fidelity driving simulators (i.e., CARLA, OpenCOOD), which provides 2D/3D occupancy labels with per-voxel flow annotations and support for cooperative autonomous driving. In terms of evaluation, unlike existing studies that rely on suboptimal pseudo labels for evaluation, UniOcc incorporates novel metrics that do not depend on ground-truth occupancy, enabling robust assessment of additional aspects of occupancy quality. Through extensive experiments on state-of-the-art models, we demonstrate that large-scale, diverse training data and explicit flow information significantly enhance occupancy prediction and forecasting performance.

Data-efficient pretraining has shown tremendous potential to elevate scaling laws. This paper argues that effective pretraining data should be curated at the group level, treating a set of data points as a whole rather than as independent contributors. To achieve that, we propose Group-Level Data Influence Modeling (Group-MATES), a novel data-efficient pretraining method that captures and optimizes group-level data utility. Specifically, Group-MATES collects oracle group-level influences by locally probing the pretraining model with data sets. It then fine-tunes a relational data influence model to approximate oracles as relationship-weighted aggregations of individual influences. The fine-tuned model selects the data subset by maximizing its group-level influence prediction, with influence-aware clustering to enable efficient inference. Experiments on the DCLM benchmark demonstrate that Group-MATES achieves a 10% relative core score improvement on 22 downstream tasks over DCLM-Baseline and 5% over individual-influence-based methods, establishing a new state-of-the-art. Further analyses highlight the effectiveness of relational data influence models in capturing intricate interactions between data points.

Over the past decade, wearable computing devices (``smart glasses'') have undergone remarkable advancements in sensor technology, design, and processing power, ushering in a new era of opportunity for high-density human behavior data. Equipped with wearable cameras, these glasses offer a unique opportunity to analyze non-verbal behavior in natural settings as individuals interact. Our focus lies in predicting engagement in dyadic interactions by scrutinizing verbal and non-verbal cues, aiming to detect signs of disinterest or confusion. Leveraging such analyses may revolutionize our understanding of human communication, foster more effective collaboration in professional environments, provide better mental health support through empathetic virtual interactions, and enhance accessibility for those with communication barriers. In this work, we collect a dataset featuring 34 participants engaged in casual dyadic conversations, each providing self-reported engagement ratings at the end of each conversation. We introduce a novel fusion strategy using Large Language Models (LLMs) to integrate multiple behavior modalities into a ``multimodal transcript'' that can be processed by an LLM for behavioral reasoning tasks. Remarkably, this method achieves performance comparable to established fusion techniques even in its preliminary implementation, indicating strong potential for further research and optimization. This fusion method is one of the first to approach ``reasoning'' about real-world human behavior through a language model. Smart glasses provide us the ability to unobtrusively gather high-density multimodal data on human behavior, paving the way for new approaches to understanding and improving human communication with the potential for important societal benefits. The features and data collected during the studies will be made publicly available to promote further research.

From rearranging objects on a table to putting groceries into shelves, robots must plan precise action points to perform tasks accurately and reliably. In spite of the recent adoption of vision language models (VLMs) to control robot behavior, VLMs struggle to precisely articulate robot actions using language. We introduce an automatic synthetic data generation pipeline that instruction-tunes VLMs to robotic domains and needs. Using the pipeline, we train RoboPoint, a VLM that predicts image keypoint affordances given language instructions. Compared to alternative approaches, our method requires no real-world data collection or human demonstration, making it much more scalable to diverse environments and viewpoints. In addition, RoboPoint is a general model that enables several downstream applications such as robot navigation, manipulation, and augmented reality (AR) assistance. Our experiments demonstrate that RoboPoint outperforms state-of-the-art VLMs (GPT-4o) and visual prompting techniques (PIVOT) by 21.8% in the accuracy of predicting spatial affordance and by 30.5% in the success rate of downstream tasks. Project website: https://robo-point.github.io.

This paper addresses a critical challenge in cybersecurity: the gap between vulnerability information represented by Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures (CVEs) and the resulting cyberattack actions. CVEs provide insights into vulnerabilities, but often lack details on potential threat actions (tactics, techniques, and procedures, or TTPs) within the ATT&CK framework. This gap hinders accurate CVE categorization and proactive countermeasure initiation. The paper introduces the TTPpredictor tool, which uses innovative techniques to analyze CVE descriptions and infer plausible TTP attacks resulting from CVE exploitation. TTPpredictor overcomes challenges posed by limited labeled data and semantic disparities between CVE and TTP descriptions. It initially extracts threat actions from unstructured cyber threat reports using Semantic Role Labeling (SRL) techniques. These actions, along with their contextual attributes, are correlated with MITRE's attack functionality classes. This automated correlation facilitates the creation of labeled data, essential for categorizing novel threat actions into threat functionality classes and TTPs. The paper presents an empirical assessment, demonstrating TTPpredictor's effectiveness with accuracy rates of approximately 98% and F1-scores ranging from 95% to 98% in precise CVE classification to ATT&CK techniques. TTPpredictor outperforms state-of-the-art language model tools like ChatGPT. Overall, this paper offers a robust solution for linking CVEs to potential attack techniques, enhancing cybersecurity practitioners' ability to proactively identify and mitigate threats.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated exceptional capabilities in generalizing to new tasks in a zero-shot or few-shot manner. However, the extent to which LLMs can comprehend user preferences based on their previous behavior remains an emerging and still unclear research question. Traditionally, Collaborative Filtering (CF) has been the most effective method for these tasks, predominantly relying on the extensive volume of rating data. In contrast, LLMs typically demand considerably less data while maintaining an exhaustive world knowledge about each item, such as movies or products. In this paper, we conduct a thorough examination of both CF and LLMs within the classic task of user rating prediction, which involves predicting a user's rating for a candidate item based on their past ratings. We investigate various LLMs in different sizes, ranging from 250M to 540B parameters and evaluate their performance in zero-shot, few-shot, and fine-tuning scenarios. We conduct comprehensive analysis to compare between LLMs and strong CF methods, and find that zero-shot LLMs lag behind traditional recommender models that have the access to user interaction data, indicating the importance of user interaction data. However, through fine-tuning, LLMs achieve comparable or even better performance with only a small fraction of the training data, demonstrating their potential through data efficiency.

Decisions about managing patients on the heart transplant waitlist are currently made by committees of doctors who consider multiple factors, but the process remains largely ad-hoc. With the growing volume of longitudinal patient, donor, and organ data collected by the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) since 2018, there is increasing interest in analytical approaches to support clinical decision-making at the time of organ availability. In this study, we benchmark machine learning models that leverage longitudinal waitlist history data for time-dependent, time-to-event modeling of waitlist mortality. We train on 23,807 patient records with 77 variables and evaluate both survival prediction and discrimination at a 1-year horizon. Our best model achieves a C-Index of 0.94 and AUROC of 0.89, significantly outperforming previous models. Key predictors align with known risk factors while also revealing novel associations. Our findings can support urgency assessment and policy refinement in heart transplant decision making.

Multimodal pathology-genomic analysis is critical for cancer survival prediction. However, existing approaches predominantly integrate formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) slides with genomic data, while neglecting the availability of other preservation slides, such as Fresh Froze (FF) slides. Moreover, as the high-resolution spatial nature of pathology data tends to dominate the cross-modality fusion process, it hinders effective multimodal fusion and leads to modality imbalance challenges between pathology and genomics. These methods also typically require complete data modalities, limiting their clinical applicability with incomplete modalities, such as missing either pathology or genomic data. In this paper, we propose a multimodal survival prediction framework that leverages hypergraph learning to effectively integrate multi-WSI information and cross-modality interactions between pathology slides and genomics data while addressing modality imbalance. In addition, we introduce a memory mechanism that stores previously learned paired pathology-genomic features and dynamically compensates for incomplete modalities. Experiments on five TCGA datasets demonstrate that our model outperforms advanced methods by over 2.3% in C-Index. Under incomplete modality scenarios, our approach surpasses pathology-only (3.3%) and gene-only models (7.9%). Code: https://github.com/MCPathology/M2Surv

Postprandial hyperglycemia, marked by the blood glucose level exceeding the normal range after meals, is a critical indicator of progression toward type 2 diabetes in prediabetic and healthy individuals. A key metric for understanding blood glucose dynamics after eating is the postprandial area under the curve (PAUC). Predicting PAUC in advance based on a person's diet and activity level and explaining what affects postprandial blood glucose could allow an individual to adjust their lifestyle accordingly to maintain normal glucose levels. In this paper, we propose GlucoLens, an explainable machine learning approach to predict PAUC and hyperglycemia from diet, activity, and recent glucose patterns. We conducted a five-week user study with 10 full-time working individuals to develop and evaluate the computational model. Our machine learning model takes multimodal data including fasting glucose, recent glucose, recent activity, and macronutrient amounts, and provides an interpretable prediction of the postprandial glucose pattern. Our extensive analyses of the collected data revealed that the trained model achieves a normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) of 0.123. On average, GlucoLense with a Random Forest backbone provides a 16% better result than the baseline models. Additionally, GlucoLens predicts hyperglycemia with an accuracy of 74% and recommends different options to help avoid hyperglycemia through diverse counterfactual explanations. Code available: https://github.com/ab9mamun/GlucoLens.

The integration of multimodal data including pathology images and gene profiles is widely applied in precise survival prediction. Despite recent advances in multimodal survival models, collecting complete modalities for multimodal fusion still poses a significant challenge, hindering their application in clinical settings. Current approaches tackling incomplete modalities often fall short, as they typically compensate for only a limited part of the knowledge of missing modalities. To address this issue, we propose a Distilled Prompt Learning framework (DisPro) to utilize the strong robustness of Large Language Models (LLMs) to missing modalities, which employs two-stage prompting for compensation of comprehensive information for missing modalities. In the first stage, Unimodal Prompting (UniPro) distills the knowledge distribution of each modality, preparing for supplementing modality-specific knowledge of the missing modality in the subsequent stage. In the second stage, Multimodal Prompting (MultiPro) leverages available modalities as prompts for LLMs to infer the missing modality, which provides modality-common information. Simultaneously, the unimodal knowledge acquired in the first stage is injected into multimodal inference to compensate for the modality-specific knowledge of the missing modality. Extensive experiments covering various missing scenarios demonstrated the superiority of the proposed method. The code is available at https://github.com/Innse/DisPro.

Transformer neural operators have recently become an effective approach for surrogate modeling of systems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). In this paper, we introduce a modified implicit factorized transformer (IFactFormer-m) model which replaces the original chained factorized attention with parallel factorized attention. The IFactFormer-m model successfully performs long-term predictions for turbulent channel flow, whereas the original IFactFormer (IFactFormer-o), Fourier neural operator (FNO), and implicit Fourier neural operator (IFNO) exhibit a poor performance. Turbulent channel flows are simulated by direct numerical simulation using fine grids at friction Reynolds numbers Re_{tau}approx 180,395,590, and filtered to coarse grids for training neural operator. The neural operator takes the current flow field as input and predicts the flow field at the next time step, and long-term prediction is achieved in the posterior through an autoregressive approach. The results show that IFactFormer-m, compared to other neural operators and the traditional large eddy simulation (LES) methods including dynamic Smagorinsky model (DSM) and the wall-adapted local eddy-viscosity (WALE) model, reduces prediction errors in the short term, and achieves stable and accurate long-term prediction of various statistical properties and flow structures, including the energy spectrum, mean streamwise velocity, root mean square (rms) values of fluctuating velocities, Reynolds shear stress, and spatial structures of instantaneous velocity. Moreover, the trained IFactFormer-m is much faster than traditional LES methods. By analyzing the attention kernels, we elucidate the reasons why IFactFormer-m converges faster and achieves a stable and accurate long-term prediction compared to IFactFormer-o. Code and data are available at: https://github.com/huiyu-2002/IFactFormer-m.

Mobile robots require accurate and robust depth measurements to understand and interact with the environment. While existing sensing modalities address this problem to some extent, recent research on monocular depth estimation has leveraged the information richness, yet low cost and simplicity of monocular cameras. These works have shown significant generalization capabilities, mainly in automotive and indoor settings. However, robots often operate in environments with limited scale cues, self-similar appearances, and low texture. In this work, we encode measurements from a low-cost mmWave radar into the input space of a state-of-the-art monocular depth estimation model. Despite the radar's extreme point cloud sparsity, our method demonstrates generalization and robustness across industrial and outdoor experiments. Our approach reduces the absolute relative error of depth predictions by 9-64% across a range of unseen, real-world validation datasets. Importantly, we maintain consistency of all performance metrics across all experiments and scene depths where current vision-only approaches fail. We further address the present deficit of training data in mobile robotics environments by introducing a novel methodology for synthesizing rendered, realistic learning datasets based on photogrammetric data that simulate the radar sensor observations for training. Our code, datasets, and pre-trained networks are made available at https://github.com/ethz-asl/radarmeetsvision.

Weather forecasting traditionally relies on numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems that integrates global observational systems, data assimilation (DA), and forecasting models. Despite steady improvements in forecast accuracy over recent decades, further advances are increasingly constrained by high computational costs, the underutilization of vast observational datasets, and the challenges of obtaining finer resolution. These limitations, alongside the uneven distribution of observational networks, result in global disparities in forecast accuracy, leaving some regions vulnerable to extreme weather. Recent advances in machine learning present a promising alternative, providing more efficient and accurate forecasts using the same initial conditions as NWP. However, current machine learning models still depend on the initial conditions generated by NWP systems, which require extensive computational resources and expertise. Here we introduce FuXi Weather, a machine learning weather forecasting system that assimilates data from multiple satellites. Operating on a 6-hourly DA and forecast cycle, FuXi Weather generates reliable and accurate 10-day global weather forecasts at a spatial resolution of 0.25^circ. FuXi Weather is the first system to achieve all-grid, all-surface, all-channel, and all-sky DA and forecasting, extending skillful forecast lead times beyond those of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) high-resolution forecasts (HRES) while using significantly fewer observations. FuXi Weather consistently outperforms ECMWF HRES in observation-sparse regions, such as central Africa, demonstrating its potential to improve forecasts where observational infrastructure is limited.

Understanding protein solubility is essential for their functional applications. Computational methods for predicting protein solubility are crucial for reducing experimental costs and enhancing the efficiency and success rates of protein engineering. Existing methods either construct a supervised learning scheme on small-scale datasets with manually processed physicochemical properties, or blindly apply pre-trained protein language models to extract amino acid interaction information. The scale and quality of available training datasets leave significant room for improvement in terms of accuracy and generalization. To address these research gaps, we propose \sol, a novel deep learning method that combines pre-training and fine-tuning schemes for protein solubility prediction. ProtSolM integrates information from multiple dimensions, including physicochemical properties, amino acid sequences, and protein backbone structures. Our model is trained using \data, the largest solubility dataset that we have constructed. PDBSol includes over 60,000 protein sequences and structures. We provide a comprehensive leaderboard of existing statistical learning and deep learning methods on independent datasets with computational and experimental labels. ProtSolM achieved state-of-the-art performance across various evaluation metrics, demonstrating its potential to significantly advance the accuracy of protein solubility prediction.

The task of chemical reaction predictions (CRPs) plays a pivotal role in advancing drug discovery and material science. However, its effectiveness is constrained by the vast and uncertain chemical reaction space and challenges in capturing reaction selectivity, particularly due to existing methods' limitations in exploiting the data's inherent knowledge. To address these challenges, we introduce a data-curated self-feedback knowledge elicitation approach. This method starts from iterative optimization of molecular representations and facilitates the extraction of knowledge on chemical reaction types (RTs). Then, we employ adaptive prompt learning to infuse the prior knowledge into the large language model (LLM). As a result, we achieve significant enhancements: a 14.2% increase in retrosynthesis prediction accuracy, a 74.2% rise in reagent prediction accuracy, and an expansion in the model's capability for handling multi-task chemical reactions. This research offers a novel paradigm for knowledge elicitation in scientific research and showcases the untapped potential of LLMs in CRPs.

Safety and robustness are crucial factors in developing trustworthy autonomous vehicles. One essential aspect of addressing these factors is to equip vehicles with the capability to predict future trajectories for all moving objects in the surroundings and quantify prediction uncertainties. In this paper, we propose the Sequential Neural Variational Agent (SeNeVA), a generative model that describes the distribution of future trajectories for a single moving object. Our approach can distinguish Out-of-Distribution data while quantifying uncertainty and achieving competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art methods on the Argoverse 2 and INTERACTION datasets. Specifically, a 0.446 meters minimum Final Displacement Error, a 0.203 meters minimum Average Displacement Error, and a 5.35% Miss Rate are achieved on the INTERACTION test set. Extensive qualitative and quantitative analysis is also provided to evaluate the proposed model. Our open-source code is available at https://github.com/PurdueDigitalTwin/seneva.

Understanding drivers' decision-making is crucial for road safety. Although predicting the ego-vehicle's path is valuable for driver-assistance systems, existing methods mainly focus on external factors like other vehicles' motions, often neglecting the driver's attention and intent. To address this gap, we infer the ego-trajectory by integrating the driver's gaze and the surrounding scene. We introduce RouteFormer, a novel multimodal ego-trajectory prediction network combining GPS data, environmental context, and the driver's field-of-view, comprising first-person video and gaze fixations. We also present the Path Complexity Index (PCI), a new metric for trajectory complexity that enables a more nuanced evaluation of challenging scenarios. To tackle data scarcity and enhance diversity, we introduce GEM, a comprehensive dataset of urban driving scenarios enriched with synchronized driver field-of-view and gaze data. Extensive evaluations on GEM and DR(eye)VE demonstrate that RouteFormer significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods, achieving notable improvements in prediction accuracy across diverse conditions. Ablation studies reveal that incorporating driver field-of-view data yields significantly better average displacement error, especially in challenging scenarios with high PCI scores, underscoring the importance of modeling driver attention. All data and code are available at https://meakbiyik.github.io/routeformer.

Entity linking is a prominent thread of research focused on structured data creation by linking spans of text to an ontology or knowledge source. We revisit the use of structured prediction for entity linking which classifies each individual input token as an entity, and aggregates the token predictions. Our system, called SpEL (Structured prediction for Entity Linking) is a state-of-the-art entity linking system that uses some new ideas to apply structured prediction to the task of entity linking including: two refined fine-tuning steps; a context sensitive prediction aggregation strategy; reduction of the size of the model's output vocabulary, and; we address a common problem in entity-linking systems where there is a training vs. inference tokenization mismatch. Our experiments show that we can outperform the state-of-the-art on the commonly used AIDA benchmark dataset for entity linking to Wikipedia. Our method is also very compute efficient in terms of number of parameters and speed of inference.

Machine-based prediction of real-world events is garnering attention due to its potential for informed decision-making. Whereas traditional forecasting predominantly hinges on structured data like time-series, recent breakthroughs in language models enable predictions using unstructured text. In particular, (Zou et al., 2022) unveils AutoCast, a new benchmark that employs news articles for answering forecasting queries. Nevertheless, existing methods still trail behind human performance. The cornerstone of accurate forecasting, we argue, lies in identifying a concise, yet rich subset of news snippets from a vast corpus. With this motivation, we introduce AutoCast++, a zero-shot ranking-based context retrieval system, tailored to sift through expansive news document collections for event forecasting. Our approach first re-ranks articles based on zero-shot question-passage relevance, honing in on semantically pertinent news. Following this, the chosen articles are subjected to zero-shot summarization to attain succinct context. Leveraging a pre-trained language model, we conduct both the relevance evaluation and article summarization without needing domain-specific training. Notably, recent articles can sometimes be at odds with preceding ones due to new facts or unanticipated incidents, leading to fluctuating temporal dynamics. To tackle this, our re-ranking mechanism gives preference to more recent articles, and we further regularize the multi-passage representation learning to align with human forecaster responses made on different dates. Empirical results underscore marked improvements across multiple metrics, improving the performance for multiple-choice questions (MCQ) by 48% and true/false (TF) questions by up to 8%.

PURPOSE: Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) entails high morbidity and mortality rates. Convolutional neural networks (CNN), a form of deep learning, are capable of generating highly accurate predictions from imaging data. Our objective was to predict mortality in SAH patients by processing the initial CT scan on a CNN based algorithm. METHODS: Retrospective multicentric study of a consecutive cohort of patients with SAH between 2011-2022. Demographic, clinical and radiological variables were analyzed. Pre-processed baseline CT scan images were used as the input for training a CNN using AUCMEDI Framework. Our model's architecture leverages the DenseNet-121 structure, employing transfer learning principles. The output variable was mortality in the first three months. Performance of the model was evaluated by statistical parameters conventionally used in studies involving artificial intelligence methods. RESULTS: Images from 219 patients were processed, 175 for training and validation of the CNN and 44 for its evaluation. 52%(115/219) of patients were female, and the median age was 58(SD=13.06) years. 18.5%(39/219) were idiopathic SAH. Mortality rate was 28.5%(63/219). The model showed good accuracy at predicting mortality in SAH patients exclusively using the images of the initial CT scan (Accuracy=74%, F1=75% and AUC=82%). CONCLUSION: Modern image processing techniques based on AI and CNN make possible to predict mortality in SAH patients with high accuracy using CT scan images as the only input. These models might be optimized by including more data and patients resulting in better training, development and performance on tasks which are beyond the skills of conventional clinical knowledge.

Benefiting from prompt tuning, recent years have witnessed the promising performance of pre-trained vision-language models, e.g., CLIP, on versatile downstream tasks. In this paper, we focus on a particular setting of learning adaptive prompts on the fly for each test sample from an unseen new domain, which is known as test-time prompt tuning (TPT). Existing TPT methods typically rely on data augmentation and confidence selection. However, conventional data augmentation techniques, e.g., random resized crops, suffers from the lack of data diversity, while entropy-based confidence selection alone is not sufficient to guarantee prediction fidelity. To address these issues, we propose a novel TPT method, named DiffTPT, which leverages pre-trained diffusion models to generate diverse and informative new data. Specifically, we incorporate augmented data by both conventional method and pre-trained stable diffusion to exploit their respective merits, improving the models ability to adapt to unknown new test data. Moreover, to ensure the prediction fidelity of generated data, we introduce a cosine similarity-based filtration technique to select the generated data with higher similarity to the single test sample. Our experiments on test datasets with distribution shifts and unseen categories demonstrate that DiffTPT improves the zero-shot accuracy by an average of 5.13\% compared to the state-of-the-art TPT method. Our code and models will be publicly released.

Model evolution and constant availability of data are two common phenomena in large-scale real-world machine learning applications, e.g. ads and recommendation systems. To adapt, the real-world system typically retrain with all available data and online learn with recently available data to update the models periodically with the goal of better serving performance. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, named Confidence Ranking, which designs the optimization objective as a ranking function with two different models. Our confidence ranking loss allows direct optimization of the logits output for different convex surrogate functions of metrics, e.g. AUC and Accuracy depending on the target task and dataset. Armed with our proposed methods, our experiments show that the introduction of confidence ranking loss can outperform all baselines on the CTR prediction tasks of public and industrial datasets. This framework has been deployed in the advertisement system of JD.com to serve the main traffic in the fine-rank stage.

We introduce the concept of "universal password model" -- a password model that, once pre-trained, can automatically adapt its guessing strategy based on the target system. To achieve this, the model does not need to access any plaintext passwords from the target credentials. Instead, it exploits users' auxiliary information, such as email addresses, as a proxy signal to predict the underlying password distribution. Specifically, the model uses deep learning to capture the correlation between the auxiliary data of a group of users (e.g., users of a web application) and their passwords. It then exploits those patterns to create a tailored password model for the target system at inference time. No further training steps, targeted data collection, or prior knowledge of the community's password distribution is required. Besides improving over current password strength estimation techniques and attacks, the model enables any end-user (e.g., system administrators) to autonomously generate tailored password models for their systems without the often unworkable requirements of collecting suitable training data and fitting the underlying machine learning model. Ultimately, our framework enables the democratization of well-calibrated password models to the community, addressing a major challenge in the deployment of password security solutions at scale.

Fairness is essential for machine learning systems deployed in high-stake applications. Among all fairness notions, individual fairness, deriving from a consensus that `similar individuals should be treated similarly,' is a vital notion to describe fair treatment for individual cases. Previous studies typically characterize individual fairness as a prediction-invariant problem when perturbing sensitive attributes on samples, and solve it by Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) paradigm. However, such adversarial perturbations along a direction covering sensitive information used in DRO do not consider the inherent feature correlations or innate data constraints, therefore could mislead the model to optimize at off-manifold and unrealistic samples. In light of this drawback, in this paper, we propose to learn and generate antidote data that approximately follows the data distribution to remedy individual unfairness. These generated on-manifold antidote data can be used through a generic optimization procedure along with original training data, resulting in a pure pre-processing approach to individual unfairness, or can also fit well with the in-processing DRO paradigm. Through extensive experiments on multiple tabular datasets, we demonstrate our method resists individual unfairness at a minimal or zero cost to predictive utility compared to baselines.

Chinese spelling check (CSC) is a fundamental NLP task that detects and corrects spelling errors in Chinese texts. As most of these spelling errors are caused by phonetic similarity, effectively modeling the pronunciation of Chinese characters is a key factor for CSC. In this paper, we consider introducing an auxiliary task of Chinese pronunciation prediction (CPP) to improve CSC, and, for the first time, systematically discuss the adaptivity and granularity of this auxiliary task. We propose SCOPE which builds on top of a shared encoder two parallel decoders, one for the primary CSC task and the other for a fine-grained auxiliary CPP task, with a novel adaptive weighting scheme to balance the two tasks. In addition, we design a delicate iterative correction strategy for further improvements during inference. Empirical evaluation shows that SCOPE achieves new state-of-the-art on three CSC benchmarks, demonstrating the effectiveness and superiority of the auxiliary CPP task. Comprehensive ablation studies further verify the positive effects of adaptivity and granularity of the task. Code and data used in this paper are publicly available at https://github.com/jiahaozhenbang/SCOPE.

Volatility clustering is a crucial property that has a substantial impact on stock market patterns. Nonetheless, developing robust models for accurately predicting future stock price volatility is a difficult research topic. For predicting the volatility of three equities listed on India's national stock market (NSE), we propose multiple volatility models depending on the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Glosten-Jagannathan-GARCH (GJR-GARCH), Exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (EGARCH), and LSTM framework. Sector-wise stocks have been chosen in our study. The sectors which have been considered are banking, information technology (IT), and pharma. yahoo finance has been used to obtain stock price data from Jan 2017 to Dec 2021. Among the pulled-out records, the data from Jan 2017 to Dec 2020 have been taken for training, and data from 2021 have been chosen for testing our models. The performance of predicting the volatility of stocks of three sectors has been evaluated by implementing three different types of GARCH models as well as by the LSTM model are compared. It has been observed the LSTM performed better in predicting volatility in pharma over banking and IT sectors. In tandem, it was also observed that E-GARCH performed better in the case of the banking sector and for IT and pharma, GJR-GARCH performed better.

This paper presents a motion data augmentation scheme incorporating motion synthesis encouraging diversity and motion correction imposing physical plausibility. This motion synthesis consists of our modified Variational AutoEncoder (VAE) and Inverse Kinematics (IK). In this VAE, our proposed sampling-near-samples method generates various valid motions even with insufficient training motion data. Our IK-based motion synthesis method allows us to generate a variety of motions semi-automatically. Since these two schemes generate unrealistic artifacts in the synthesized motions, our motion correction rectifies them. This motion correction scheme consists of imitation learning with physics simulation and subsequent motion debiasing. For this imitation learning, we propose the PD-residual force that significantly accelerates the training process. Furthermore, our motion debiasing successfully offsets the motion bias induced by imitation learning to maximize the effect of augmentation. As a result, our method outperforms previous noise-based motion augmentation methods by a large margin on both Recurrent Neural Network-based and Graph Convolutional Network-based human motion prediction models. The code is available at https://github.com/meaten/MotionAug.

The popularity of social media has created problems such as hate speech and sexism. The identification and classification of sexism in social media are very relevant tasks, as they would allow building a healthier social environment. Nevertheless, these tasks are considerably challenging. This work proposes a system to use multilingual and monolingual BERT and data points translation and ensemble strategies for sexism identification and classification in English and Spanish. It was conducted in the context of the sEXism Identification in Social neTworks shared 2021 (EXIST 2021) task, proposed by the Iberian Languages Evaluation Forum (IberLEF). The proposed system and its main components are described, and an in-depth hyperparameters analysis is conducted. The main results observed were: (i) the system obtained better results than the baseline model (multilingual BERT); (ii) ensemble models obtained better results than monolingual models; and (iii) an ensemble model considering all individual models and the best standardized values obtained the best accuracies and F1-scores for both tasks. This work obtained first place in both tasks at EXIST, with the highest accuracies (0.780 for task 1 and 0.658 for task 2) and F1-scores (F1-binary of 0.780 for task 1 and F1-macro of 0.579 for task 2).

Prediction of stock prices has been an important area of research for a long time. While supporters of the efficient market hypothesis believe that it is impossible to predict stock prices accurately, there are formal propositions demonstrating that accurate modeling and designing of appropriate variables may lead to models using which stock prices and stock price movement patterns can be very accurately predicted. In this work, we propose an approach of hybrid modeling for stock price prediction building different machine learning and deep learning-based models. For the purpose of our study, we have used NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India, during the period December 29, 2014 till July 31, 2020. We have built eight regression models using the training data that consisted of NIFTY 50 index records during December 29, 2014 till December 28, 2018. Using these regression models, we predicted the open values of NIFTY 50 for the period December 31, 2018 till July 31, 2020. We, then, augment the predictive power of our forecasting framework by building four deep learning-based regression models using long-and short-term memory (LSTM) networks with a novel approach of walk-forward validation. We exploit the power of LSTM regression models in forecasting the future NIFTY 50 open values using four different models that differ in their architecture and in the structure of their input data. Extensive results are presented on various metrics for the all the regression models. The results clearly indicate that the LSTM-based univariate model that uses one-week prior data as input for predicting the next week open value of the NIFTY 50 time series is the most accurate model.

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has always been a challenging task for the researchers. While the advocates of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) believe that it is impossible to design any predictive framework that can accurately predict the movement of stock prices, there are seminal work in the literature that have clearly demonstrated that the seemingly random movement patterns in the time series of a stock price can be predicted with a high level of accuracy. Design of such predictive models requires choice of appropriate variables, right transformation methods of the variables, and tuning of the parameters of the models. In this work, we present a very robust and accurate framework of stock price prediction that consists of an agglomeration of statistical, machine learning and deep learning models. We use the daily stock price data, collected at five minutes interval of time, of a very well known company that is listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The granular data is aggregated into three slots in a day, and the aggregated data is used for building and training the forecasting models. We contend that the agglomerative approach of model building that uses a combination of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning approaches, can very effectively learn from the volatile and random movement patterns in a stock price data. We build eight classification and eight regression models based on statistical and machine learning approaches. In addition to these models, a deep learning regression model using a long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) network is also built. Extensive results have been presented on the performance of these models, and the results are critically analyzed.

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. There is a gamut of literature of technical analysis of stock prices where the objective is to identify patterns in stock price movements and derive profit from it. Improving the prediction accuracy remains the single most challenge in this area of research. We propose a hybrid approach for stock price movement prediction using machine learning, deep learning, and natural language processing. We select the NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange of India, and collect its daily price movement over a period of three years (2015 to 2017). Based on the data of 2015 to 2017, we build various predictive models using machine learning, and then use those models to predict the closing value of NIFTY 50 for the period January 2018 till June 2019 with a prediction horizon of one week. For predicting the price movement patterns, we use a number of classification techniques, while for predicting the actual closing price of the stock, various regression models have been used. We also build a Long and Short-Term Memory - based deep learning network for predicting the closing price of the stocks and compare the prediction accuracies of the machine learning models with the LSTM model. We further augment the predictive model by integrating a sentiment analysis module on twitter data to correlate the public sentiment of stock prices with the market sentiment. This has been done using twitter sentiment and previous week closing values to predict stock price movement for the next week. We tested our proposed scheme using a cross validation method based on Self Organizing Fuzzy Neural Networks and found extremely interesting results.

Metadata are general characteristics of the data in a well-curated and condensed format, and have been proven to be useful for decision making, knowledge discovery, and also heterogeneous data organization of biobank. Among all data types in the biobank, pathology is the key component of the biobank and also serves as the gold standard of diagnosis. To maximize the utility of biobank and allow the rapid progress of biomedical science, it is essential to organize the data with well-populated pathology metadata. However, manual annotation of such information is tedious and time-consuming. In the study, we develop a multimodal multitask learning framework to predict four major slide-level metadata of pathology images. The framework learns generalizable representations across tissue slides, pathology reports, and case-level structured data. We demonstrate improved performance across all four tasks with the proposed method compared to a single modal single task baseline on two test sets, one external test set from a distinct data source (TCGA) and one internal held-out test set (TTH). In the test sets, the performance improvements on the averaged area under receiver operating characteristic curve across the four tasks are 16.48% and 9.05% on TCGA and TTH, respectively. Such pathology metadata prediction system may be adopted to mitigate the effort of expert annotation and ultimately accelerate the data-driven research by better utilization of the pathology biobank.

Knowledge graphs enable a wide variety of applications, including question answering and information retrieval. Despite the great effort invested in their creation and maintenance, even the largest (e.g., Yago, DBPedia or Wikidata) remain incomplete. We introduce Relational Graph Convolutional Networks (R-GCNs) and apply them to two standard knowledge base completion tasks: Link prediction (recovery of missing facts, i.e. subject-predicate-object triples) and entity classification (recovery of missing entity attributes). R-GCNs are related to a recent class of neural networks operating on graphs, and are developed specifically to deal with the highly multi-relational data characteristic of realistic knowledge bases. We demonstrate the effectiveness of R-GCNs as a stand-alone model for entity classification. We further show that factorization models for link prediction such as DistMult can be significantly improved by enriching them with an encoder model to accumulate evidence over multiple inference steps in the relational graph, demonstrating a large improvement of 29.8% on FB15k-237 over a decoder-only baseline.

We propose SharpDepth, a novel approach to monocular metric depth estimation that combines the metric accuracy of discriminative depth estimation methods (e.g., Metric3D, UniDepth) with the fine-grained boundary sharpness typically achieved by generative methods (e.g., Marigold, Lotus). Traditional discriminative models trained on real-world data with sparse ground-truth depth can accurately predict metric depth but often produce over-smoothed or low-detail depth maps. Generative models, in contrast, are trained on synthetic data with dense ground truth, generating depth maps with sharp boundaries yet only providing relative depth with low accuracy. Our approach bridges these limitations by integrating metric accuracy with detailed boundary preservation, resulting in depth predictions that are both metrically precise and visually sharp. Our extensive zero-shot evaluations on standard depth estimation benchmarks confirm SharpDepth effectiveness, showing its ability to achieve both high depth accuracy and detailed representation, making it well-suited for applications requiring high-quality depth perception across diverse, real-world environments.

Fine-tuning is widely used to adapt language models for specific goals, often leveraging real-world data such as patient records, customer-service interactions, or web content in languages not covered in pre-training. These datasets are typically massive, noisy, and often confidential, making their direct inspection challenging. However, understanding them is essential for guiding model deployment and informing decisions about data cleaning or suppressing any harmful behaviors learned during fine-tuning. In this study, we introduce the task of novelty discovery through generation, which aims to identify novel properties of a fine-tuning dataset by generating examples that illustrate these properties. Our approach, Contrastive Generative Exploration (CGE), assumes no direct access to the data but instead relies on a pre-trained model and the same model after fine-tuning. By contrasting the predictions of these two models, CGE can generate examples that highlight novel characteristics of the fine-tuning data. However, this simple approach may produce examples that are too similar to one another, failing to capture the full range of novel phenomena present in the dataset. We address this by introducing an iterative version of CGE, where the previously generated examples are used to update the pre-trained model, and this updated model is then contrasted with the fully fine-tuned model to generate the next example, promoting diversity in the generated outputs. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of CGE in detecting novel content, such as toxic language, as well as new natural and programming languages. Furthermore, we show that CGE remains effective even when models are fine-tuned using differential privacy techniques.

Assessing the effectiveness of large language models (LLMs) presents substantial challenges. The method of conducting human-annotated battles in an online Chatbot Arena is a highly effective evaluative technique. However, this approach is limited by the costs and time required for human annotation. In this paper, we introduce Arena Learning, an innovative offline strategy designed to simulate these arena battles using AI-driven annotations to evaluate battle outcomes, thus facilitating the continuous improvement of the target model through both supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning. Arena Learning comprises two key elements. First, it ensures precise evaluations and maintains consistency between offline simulations and online competitions via WizardArena, a pipeline developed to accurately predict the Elo rankings of various models using a meticulously designed offline test set. Our results demonstrate that WizardArena's predictions closely align with those from the online Arena. Second, it involves the continuous improvement of training data based on the battle results and the refined model. We establish a data flywheel to iteratively update the training data by highlighting the weaknesses of the target model based on its battle results, enabling it to learn from the strengths of multiple different models. We apply Arena Learning to train our target model, WizardLM-beta, and demonstrate significant performance enhancements across various metrics. This fully automated training and evaluation pipeline sets the stage for continuous advancements in various LLMs via post-training. Notably, Arena Learning plays a pivotal role in the success of WizardLM-2, and this paper serves both as an exploration of its efficacy and a foundational study for future discussions related to WizardLM-2 and its derivatives.

In this paper, we introduce data multiplexing (DataMUX), a technique that enables deep neural networks to process multiple inputs simultaneously using a single compact representation. DataMUX demonstrates that neural networks are capable of generating accurate predictions over mixtures of inputs, resulting in increased throughput with minimal extra memory requirements. Our approach uses two key components -- 1) a multiplexing layer that performs a fixed linear transformation to each input before combining them to create a mixed representation of the same size as a single input, which is then processed by the base network, and 2) a demultiplexing layer that converts the base network's output back into independent representations before producing predictions for each input. We show the viability of DataMUX for different architectures (Transformers, and to a lesser extent MLPs and CNNs) across six different tasks spanning sentence classification, named entity recognition and image classification. For instance, DataMUX for Transformers can multiplex up to 20x/40x inputs, achieving 11x/18x increase in throughput with minimal absolute performance drops of <2% and <4% respectively on MNLI, a natural language inference task. We also provide a theoretical construction for multiplexing in self-attention networks and analyze the effect of various design elements in DataMUX.

Recent work found that LLMs are sensitive to a wide range of arbitrary prompt dimensions, including the type of delimiters, answer enumerators, instruction wording, and more. This throws into question popular single-prompt evaluation practices. We present DOVE (Dataset Of Variation Evaluation) a large-scale dataset containing prompt perturbations of various evaluation benchmarks. In contrast to previous work, we examine LLM sensitivity from an holistic perspective, and assess the joint effects of perturbations along various dimensions, resulting in thousands of perturbations per instance. We evaluate several model families against DOVE, leading to several findings, including efficient methods for choosing well-performing prompts, observing that few-shot examples reduce sensitivity, and identifying instances which are inherently hard across all perturbations. DOVE consists of more than 250M prompt perturbations and model outputs, which we make publicly available to spur a community-wide effort toward meaningful, robust, and efficient evaluation. Browse the data, contribute, and more: https://slab-nlp.github.io/DOVE/

Several recent deep learning (DL) based techniques perform considerably well on image-based multilingual text detection. However, their performance relies heavily on the availability and quality of training data. There are numerous types of page-level document images consisting of information in several modalities, languages, fonts, and layouts. This makes text detection a challenging problem in the field of computer vision (CV), especially for low-resource or handwritten languages. Furthermore, there is a scarcity of word-level labeled data for text detection, especially for multilingual settings and Indian scripts that incorporate both printed and handwritten text. Conventionally, Indian script text detection requires training a DL model on plenty of labeled data, but to the best of our knowledge, no relevant datasets are available. Manual annotation of such data requires a lot of time, effort, and expertise. In order to solve this problem, we propose TEXTRON, a Data Programming-based approach, where users can plug various text detection methods into a weak supervision-based learning framework. One can view this approach to multilingual text detection as an ensemble of different CV-based techniques and DL approaches. TEXTRON can leverage the predictions of DL models pre-trained on a significant amount of language data in conjunction with CV-based methods to improve text detection in other languages. We demonstrate that TEXTRON can improve the detection performance for documents written in Indian languages, despite the absence of corresponding labeled data. Further, through extensive experimentation, we show improvement brought about by our approach over the current State-of-the-art (SOTA) models, especially for handwritten Devanagari text. Code and dataset has been made available at https://github.com/IITB-LEAP-OCR/TEXTRON

In domains with high stakes such as law, recruitment, and healthcare, learning models frequently rely on sensitive user data for inference, necessitating the complete set of features. This not only poses significant privacy risks for individuals but also demands substantial human effort from organizations to verify information accuracy. This paper asks whether it is necessary to use all input features for accurate predictions at inference time. The paper demonstrates that, in a personalized setting, individuals may only need to disclose a small subset of their features without compromising decision-making accuracy. The paper also provides an efficient sequential algorithm to determine the appropriate attributes for each individual to provide. Evaluations across various learning tasks show that individuals can potentially report as little as 10\% of their information while maintaining the same accuracy level as a model that employs the full set of user information.

A model involving Gaussian processes (GPs) is introduced to simultaneously handle multi-task learning, clustering, and prediction for multiple functional data. This procedure acts as a model-based clustering method for functional data as well as a learning step for subsequent predictions for new tasks. The model is instantiated as a mixture of multi-task GPs with common mean processes. A variational EM algorithm is derived for dealing with the optimisation of the hyper-parameters along with the hyper-posteriors' estimation of latent variables and processes. We establish explicit formulas for integrating the mean processes and the latent clustering variables within a predictive distribution, accounting for uncertainty on both aspects. This distribution is defined as a mixture of cluster-specific GP predictions, which enhances the performances when dealing with group-structured data. The model handles irregular grid of observations and offers different hypotheses on the covariance structure for sharing additional information across tasks. The performances on both clustering and prediction tasks are assessed through various simulated scenarios and real datasets. The overall algorithm, called MagmaClust, is publicly available as an R package.

We describe the accurate prediction of ligand-protein interaction (LPI) affinities, also known as drug-target interactions (DTI), with instruction fine-tuned pretrained generative small language models (SLMs). We achieved accurate predictions for a range of affinity values associated with ligand-protein interactions on out-of-sample data in a zero-shot setting. Only the SMILES string of the ligand and the amino acid sequence of the protein were used as the model inputs. Our results demonstrate a clear improvement over machine learning (ML) and free-energy perturbation (FEP+) based methods in accurately predicting a range of ligand-protein interaction affinities, which can be leveraged to further accelerate drug discovery campaigns against challenging therapeutic targets.

Extraction of building footprint polygons from remotely sensed data is essential for several urban understanding tasks such as reconstruction, navigation, and mapping. Despite significant progress in the area, extracting accurate polygonal building footprints remains an open problem. In this paper, we introduce Pix2Poly, an attention-based end-to-end trainable and differentiable deep neural network capable of directly generating explicit high-quality building footprints in a ring graph format. Pix2Poly employs a generative encoder-decoder transformer to produce a sequence of graph vertex tokens whose connectivity information is learned by an optimal matching network. Compared to previous graph learning methods, ours is a truly end-to-end trainable approach that extracts high-quality building footprints and road networks without requiring complicated, computationally intensive raster loss functions and intricate training pipelines. Upon evaluating Pix2Poly on several complex and challenging datasets, we report that Pix2Poly outperforms state-of-the-art methods in several vector shape quality metrics while being an entirely explicit method. Our code is available at https://github.com/yeshwanth95/Pix2Poly.

Air quality prediction and modelling plays a pivotal role in public health and environment management, for individuals and authorities to make informed decisions. Although traditional data-driven models have shown promise in this domain, their long-term prediction accuracy can be limited, especially in scenarios with sparse or incomplete data and they often rely on black-box deep learning structures that lack solid physical foundation leading to reduced transparency and interpretability in predictions. To address these limitations, this paper presents a novel approach named Physics guided Neural Network for Air Quality Prediction (AirPhyNet). Specifically, we leverage two well-established physics principles of air particle movement (diffusion and advection) by representing them as differential equation networks. Then, we utilize a graph structure to integrate physics knowledge into a neural network architecture and exploit latent representations to capture spatio-temporal relationships within the air quality data. Experiments on two real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that AirPhyNet outperforms state-of-the-art models for different testing scenarios including different lead time (24h, 48h, 72h), sparse data and sudden change prediction, achieving reduction in prediction errors up to 10%. Moreover, a case study further validates that our model captures underlying physical processes of particle movement and generates accurate predictions with real physical meaning.

Brain tumor growth is unique to each glioma patient and extends beyond what is visible in imaging scans, infiltrating surrounding brain tissue. Understanding these hidden patient-specific progressions is essential for effective therapies. Current treatment plans for brain tumors, such as radiotherapy, typically involve delineating a uniform margin around the visible tumor on pre-treatment scans to target this invisible tumor growth. This "one size fits all" approach is derived from population studies and often fails to account for the nuances of individual patient conditions. We present the GliODIL framework, which infers the full spatial distribution of tumor cell concentration from available multi-modal imaging, leveraging a Fisher-Kolmogorov type physics model to describe tumor growth. This is achieved through the newly introduced method of Optimizing the Discrete Loss (ODIL), where both data and physics-based constraints are softly assimilated into the solution. Our test dataset comprises 152 glioblastoma patients with pre-treatment imaging and post-treatment follow-ups for tumor recurrence monitoring. By blending data-driven techniques with physics-based constraints, GliODIL enhances recurrence prediction in radiotherapy planning, challenging traditional uniform margins and strict adherence to the Fisher-Kolmogorov partial differential equation (PDE) model, which is adapted for complex cases.

In collaborative human-robot manipulation, a robot must predict human intents and adapt its actions accordingly to smoothly execute tasks. However, the human's intent in turn depends on actions the robot takes, creating a chicken-or-egg problem. Prior methods ignore such inter-dependency and instead train marginal intent prediction models independent of robot actions. This is because training conditional models is hard given a lack of paired human-robot interaction datasets. Can we instead leverage large-scale human-human interaction data that is more easily accessible? Our key insight is to exploit a correspondence between human and robot actions that enables transfer learning from human-human to human-robot data. We propose a novel architecture, InteRACT, that pre-trains a conditional intent prediction model on large human-human datasets and fine-tunes on a small human-robot dataset. We evaluate on a set of real-world collaborative human-robot manipulation tasks and show that our conditional model improves over various marginal baselines. We also introduce new techniques to tele-operate a 7-DoF robot arm and collect a diverse range of human-robot collaborative manipulation data, which we open-source.

Large language models (LLMs) effectively generate fluent text when the target output follows natural language patterns. However, structured prediction tasks confine the output format to a limited ontology, causing even very large models to struggle since they were never trained with such restrictions in mind. The difficulty of using LLMs for direct prediction is exacerbated in few-shot learning scenarios, which commonly arise due to domain shift and resource limitations. We flip the problem on its head by leveraging the LLM as a tool for data augmentation rather than direct prediction. Our proposed Mixture of Soft Prompts (MSP) serves as a parameter-efficient procedure for generating data in a controlled manner. Denoising mechanisms are further applied to improve the quality of synthesized data. Automatic metrics show our method is capable of producing diverse and natural text, while preserving label semantics. Moreover, MSP achieves state-of-the-art results on three benchmarks when compared against strong baselines. Our method offers an alternate data-centric approach for applying LLMs to complex prediction tasks.

Transformers have gained increasing popularity in a wide range of applications, including Natural Language Processing (NLP), Computer Vision and Speech Recognition, because of their powerful representational capacity. However, harnessing this representational capacity effectively requires a large amount of data, strong regularization, or both, to mitigate overfitting. Recently, the power of the Transformer has been unlocked by self-supervised pretraining strategies based on masked autoencoders which rely on reconstructing masked inputs, directly, or contrastively from unmasked content. This pretraining strategy which has been used in BERT models in NLP, Wav2Vec models in Speech and, recently, in MAE models in Vision, forces the model to learn about relationships between the content in different parts of the input using autoencoding related objectives. In this paper, we propose a novel, but surprisingly simple alternative to content reconstruction~-- that of predicting locations from content, without providing positional information for it. Doing so requires the Transformer to understand the positional relationships between different parts of the input, from their content alone. This amounts to an efficient implementation where the pretext task is a classification problem among all possible positions for each input token. We experiment on both Vision and Speech benchmarks, where our approach brings improvements over strong supervised training baselines and is comparable to modern unsupervised/self-supervised pretraining methods. Our method also enables Transformers trained without position embeddings to outperform ones trained with full position information.

Neural architecture search (NAS) with an accuracy predictor that predicts the accuracy of candidate architectures has drawn increasing attention due to its simplicity and effectiveness. Previous works usually employ neural network-based predictors which require more delicate design and are easy to overfit. Considering that most architectures are represented as sequences of discrete symbols which are more like tabular data and preferred by non-neural predictors, in this paper, we study an alternative approach which uses non-neural model for accuracy prediction. Specifically, as decision tree based models can better handle tabular data, we leverage gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) as the predictor for NAS. We demonstrate that the GBDT predictor can achieve comparable (if not better) prediction accuracy than neural network based predictors. Moreover, considering that a compact search space can ease the search process, we propose to prune the search space gradually according to important features derived from GBDT. In this way, NAS can be performed by first pruning the search space and then searching a neural architecture, which is more efficient and effective. Experiments on NASBench-101 and ImageNet demonstrate the effectiveness of using GBDT as predictor for NAS: (1) On NASBench-101, it is 22x, 8x, and 6x more sample efficient than random search, regularized evolution, and Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) in finding the global optimum; (2) It achieves 24.2% top-1 error rate on ImageNet, and further achieves 23.4% top-1 error rate on ImageNet when enhanced with search space pruning. Code is provided at https://github.com/renqianluo/GBDT-NAS.

Real-world multichannel time series prediction faces growing demands for efficiency across edge and cloud environments, making channel compression a timely and essential problem. Motivated by success of Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (MIMO) methods, we propose a predictability-aware compression-decompression framework to reduce runtime, lower communication cost, and maintain prediction accuracy across diverse predictors. The core idea involves using a circular periodicity key matrix with orthogonality to capture underlying time series predictability during compression and to mitigate reconstruction errors during decompression by relaxing oversimplified data assumptions. Theoretical and empirical analyses show that the proposed framework is both time-efficient and scalable under a large number of channels. Extensive experiments on six datasets across various predictors demonstrate that the proposed method achieves superior overall performance by jointly considering prediction accuracy and runtime, while maintaining strong compatibility with diverse predictors.

This report reviews recent advancements in human motion prediction, reconstruction, and generation. Human motion prediction focuses on forecasting future poses and movements from historical data, addressing challenges like nonlinear dynamics, occlusions, and motion style variations. Reconstruction aims to recover accurate 3D human body movements from visual inputs, often leveraging transformer-based architectures, diffusion models, and physical consistency losses to handle noise and complex poses. Motion generation synthesizes realistic and diverse motions from action labels, textual descriptions, or environmental constraints, with applications in robotics, gaming, and virtual avatars. Additionally, text-to-motion generation and human-object interaction modeling have gained attention, enabling fine-grained and context-aware motion synthesis for augmented reality and robotics. This review highlights key methodologies, datasets, challenges, and future research directions driving progress in these fields.

3D occupancy prediction is crucial for autonomous driving perception. Fusion of 4D radar and camera provides a potential solution of robust occupancy prediction on serve weather with least cost. How to achieve effective multi-modal feature fusion and reduce annotation costs remains significant challenges. In this work, we propose MetaOcc, a novel multi-modal occupancy prediction framework that fuses surround-view cameras and 4D radar for comprehensive environmental perception. We first design a height self-attention module for effective 3D feature extraction from sparse radar points. Then, a local-global fusion mechanism is proposed to adaptively capture modality contributions while handling spatio-temporal misalignments. Temporal alignment and fusion module is employed to further aggregate historical feature. Furthermore, we develop a semi-supervised training procedure leveraging open-set segmentor and geometric constraints for pseudo-label generation, enabling robust perception with limited annotations. Extensive experiments on OmniHD-Scenes dataset demonstrate that MetaOcc achieves state-of-the-art performance, surpassing previous methods by significant margins. Notably, as the first semi-supervised 4D radar and camera fusion-based occupancy prediction approach, MetaOcc maintains 92.5% of the fully-supervised performance while using only 50% of ground truth annotations, establishing a new benchmark for multi-modal 3D occupancy prediction. Code and data are available at https://github.com/LucasYang567/MetaOcc.

We apply a complex network approach to analyse the time series of five solar parameters, and propose an strategy to predict the number of sunspots for the next solar maximum, and when will this maximum will occur. The approach is based on the Visibility Graph (VG) algorithm, and a slightly modified version of it, the Horizontal Visibility Graph (HVG), which map a time series into a complex network. Various network metrics exhibit either an exponential or a scale-free behavior, and we find that the evolution of the characteristic decay exponents is consistent with variations of the sunspots number along solar cycles. During solar minimum, the sunspots number and the solar index time series have characteristic decay exponents that correlate well with the next maximum sunspots number, suggesting that they may be good precursors of the intensity of the next solar maximum. Based on this observation, we find that, based on current data, the algorithm predicts a number of 179 sunspots for cycle 25. Combining this with the Hathaway function, adjusted to yield such maximum sunspots number, we find that the maximum for solar cycle 25 will occur in December 2024/January 2025.

The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) in legal judgment prediction (LJP) has the potential to transform the legal landscape, particularly in jurisdictions like India, where a significant backlog of cases burdens the legal system. This paper introduces NyayaAnumana, the largest and most diverse corpus of Indian legal cases compiled for LJP, encompassing a total of 7,02,945 preprocessed cases. NyayaAnumana, which combines the words "Nyay" (judgment) and "Anuman" (prediction or inference) respectively for most major Indian languages, includes a wide range of cases from the Supreme Court, High Courts, Tribunal Courts, District Courts, and Daily Orders and, thus, provides unparalleled diversity and coverage. Our dataset surpasses existing datasets like PredEx and ILDC, offering a comprehensive foundation for advanced AI research in the legal domain. In addition to the dataset, we present INLegalLlama, a domain-specific generative large language model (LLM) tailored to the intricacies of the Indian legal system. It is developed through a two-phase training approach over a base LLaMa model. First, Indian legal documents are injected using continual pretraining. Second, task-specific supervised finetuning is done. This method allows the model to achieve a deeper understanding of legal contexts. Our experiments demonstrate that incorporating diverse court data significantly boosts model accuracy, achieving approximately 90% F1-score in prediction tasks. INLegalLlama not only improves prediction accuracy but also offers comprehensible explanations, addressing the need for explainability in AI-assisted legal decisions.

Understanding how deep learning models predict oncology patient risk can provide critical insights into disease progression, support clinical decision-making, and pave the way for trustworthy and data-driven precision medicine. Building on recent advances in the spatial modeling of the tumor microenvironment using graph neural networks, we present an explainable cell graph (xCG) approach for survival prediction. We validate our model on a public cohort of imaging mass cytometry (IMC) data for 416 cases of lung adenocarcinoma. We explain survival predictions in terms of known phenotypes on the cell level by computing risk attributions over cell graphs, for which we propose an efficient grid-based layer-wise relevance propagation (LRP) method. Our ablation studies highlight the importance of incorporating the cancer stage and model ensembling to improve the quality of risk estimates. Our xCG method, together with the IMC data, is made publicly available to support further research.

Protein structure prediction is pivotal for understanding the structure-function relationship of proteins, advancing biological research, and facilitating pharmaceutical development and experimental design. While deep learning methods and the expanded availability of experimental 3D protein structures have accelerated structure prediction, the dynamic nature of protein structures has received limited attention. This study introduces an innovative 4D diffusion model incorporating molecular dynamics (MD) simulation data to learn dynamic protein structures. Our approach is distinguished by the following components: (1) a unified diffusion model capable of generating dynamic protein structures, including both the backbone and side chains, utilizing atomic grouping and side-chain dihedral angle predictions; (2) a reference network that enhances structural consistency by integrating the latent embeddings of the initial 3D protein structures; and (3) a motion alignment module aimed at improving temporal structural coherence across multiple time steps. To our knowledge, this is the first diffusion-based model aimed at predicting protein trajectories across multiple time steps simultaneously. Validation on benchmark datasets demonstrates that our model exhibits high accuracy in predicting dynamic 3D structures of proteins containing up to 256 amino acids over 32 time steps, effectively capturing both local flexibility in stable states and significant conformational changes.

Based on the WASSA 2022 Shared Task on Empathy Detection and Emotion Classification, we predict the level of empathic concern and personal distress displayed in essays. For the first stage of this project we implemented a Feed-Forward Neural Network using sentence-level embeddings as features. We experimented with four different embedding models for generating the inputs to the neural network. The subsequent stage builds upon the previous work and we have implemented three types of revisions. The first revision focuses on the enhancements to the model architecture and the training approach. The second revision focuses on handling class imbalance using stratified data sampling. The third revision focuses on leveraging lexical resources, where we apply four different resources to enrich the features associated with the dataset. During the final stage of this project, we have created the final end-to-end system for the primary task using an ensemble of models to revise primary task performance. Additionally, as part of the final stage, these approaches have been adapted to the WASSA 2023 Shared Task on Empathy Emotion and Personality Detection in Interactions, in which the empathic concern, emotion polarity, and emotion intensity in dyadic text conversations are predicted.

CPU performance prediction, which involves forecasting the performance scores of a CPU based on its hardware characteristics during its operation, is a critical technology for computational system design and resource management in the big data era. However, this research field currently faces two significant challenges. First, collecting real-world data is challenging due to the wide variety of CPU products on the market and the highly specialized nature of relevant hardware characteristics. In the research process, this field lacks a standard dataset with unified hardware characteristics, wide data coverage, and comprehensive benchmarks. Second, existing methods based on hardware simulation models or machine learning exhibit notable shortcomings, such as lengthy simulation test cycles and low prediction accuracy. To bridge these gaps, we first collect, preprocess, and standardize historical data from the 4th Generation Intel Xeon Scalable Processors across multiple benchmark suites to create a new dataset, named PerfCastDB. Subsequently, we design a deep learning based model called Nova CPU Performance Predictor (NCPP) as the baseline for this new dataset. The NCPP network is designed based on group attention mechanism. It effectively quantifies the implicit relationships between hardware characteristics within and across groups and comprehensively models the impact of various hardware characteristics on CPU performance prediction. We conduct comparative experiments using the proposed PerfCastDB dataset. Compared to existing approaches, NCPP achieves superior evaluation results, demonstrating its effectiveness. Furthermore, we have open-sourced part of the dataset and the NCPP network code to facilitate subsequent research. The resources can be accessed at https://github.com/xiaoman-liu/NCPP.

Many training data attribution (TDA) methods aim to estimate how a model's behavior would change if one or more data points were removed from the training set. Methods based on implicit differentiation, such as influence functions, can be made computationally efficient, but fail to account for underspecification, the implicit bias of the optimization algorithm, or multi-stage training pipelines. By contrast, methods based on unrolling address these issues but face scalability challenges. In this work, we connect the implicit-differentiation-based and unrolling-based approaches and combine their benefits by introducing Source, an approximate unrolling-based TDA method that is computed using an influence-function-like formula. While being computationally efficient compared to unrolling-based approaches, Source is suitable in cases where implicit-differentiation-based approaches struggle, such as in non-converged models and multi-stage training pipelines. Empirically, Source outperforms existing TDA techniques in counterfactual prediction, especially in settings where implicit-differentiation-based approaches fall short.

Adverse drug events (ADEs) significantly impact clinical research, causing many clinical trial failures. ADE prediction is key for developing safer medications and enhancing patient outcomes. To support this effort, we introduce CT-ADE, a dataset for multilabel predictive modeling of ADEs in monopharmacy treatments. CT-ADE integrates data from 2,497 unique drugs, encompassing 168,984 drug-ADE pairs extracted from clinical trials, annotated with patient and contextual information, and comprehensive ADE concepts standardized across multiple levels of the MedDRA ontology. Preliminary analyses with large language models (LLMs) achieved F1-scores up to 55.90%. Models using patient and contextual information showed F1-score improvements of 21%-38% over models using only chemical structure data. Our results highlight the importance of target population and treatment regimens in the predictive modeling of ADEs, offering greater performance gains than LLM domain specialization and scaling. CT-ADE provides an essential tool for researchers aiming to leverage artificial intelligence and machine learning to enhance patient safety and minimize the impact of ADEs on pharmaceutical research and development. The dataset is publicly accessible at https://github.com/ds4dh/CT-ADE.

Data assimilation (DA), as an indispensable component within contemporary Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems, plays a crucial role in generating the analysis that significantly impacts forecast performance. Nevertheless, the development of an efficient DA system poses significant challenges, particularly in establishing intricate relationships between the background data and the vast amount of multi-source observation data within limited time windows in operational settings. To address these challenges, researchers design complex pre-processing methods for each observation type, leveraging approximate modeling and the power of super-computing clusters to expedite solutions. The emergence of deep learning (DL) models has been a game-changer, offering unified multi-modal modeling, enhanced nonlinear representation capabilities, and superior parallelization. These advantages have spurred efforts to integrate DL models into various domains of weather modeling. Remarkably, DL models have shown promise in matching, even surpassing, the forecast accuracy of leading operational NWP models worldwide. This success motivates the exploration of DL-based DA frameworks tailored for weather forecasting models. In this study, we introduces FuxiDA, a generalized DL-based DA framework for assimilating satellite observations. By assimilating data from Advanced Geosynchronous Radiation Imager (AGRI) aboard Fengyun-4B, FuXi-DA consistently mitigates analysis errors and significantly improves forecast performance. Furthermore, through a series of single-observation experiments, Fuxi-DA has been validated against established atmospheric physics, demonstrating its consistency and reliability.

Trajectory prediction is fundamental in computer vision and autonomous driving, particularly for understanding pedestrian behavior and enabling proactive decision-making. Existing approaches in this field often assume precise and complete observational data, neglecting the challenges associated with out-of-view objects and the noise inherent in sensor data due to limited camera range, physical obstructions, and the absence of ground truth for denoised sensor data. Such oversights are critical safety concerns, as they can result in missing essential, non-visible objects. To bridge this gap, we present a novel method for out-of-sight trajectory prediction that leverages a vision-positioning technique. Our approach denoises noisy sensor observations in an unsupervised manner and precisely maps sensor-based trajectories of out-of-sight objects into visual trajectories. This method has demonstrated state-of-the-art performance in out-of-sight noisy sensor trajectory denoising and prediction on the Vi-Fi and JRDB datasets. By enhancing trajectory prediction accuracy and addressing the challenges of out-of-sight objects, our work significantly contributes to improving the safety and reliability of autonomous driving in complex environments. Our work represents the first initiative towards Out-Of-Sight Trajectory prediction (OOSTraj), setting a new benchmark for future research. The code is available at https://github.com/Hai-chao-Zhang/OOSTraj.

Large Language Models (LLMs) stand at the forefront of a number of Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks. Despite the widespread adoption of LLMs in NLP, much of their potential in broader fields remains largely unexplored, and significant limitations persist in their design and implementation. Notably, LLMs struggle with structured data, such as graphs, and often falter when tasked with answering domain-specific questions requiring deep expertise, such as those in biology and chemistry. In this paper, we explore a fundamental question: Can LLMs effectively handle molecule prediction tasks? Rather than pursuing top-tier performance, our goal is to assess how LLMs can contribute to diverse molecule tasks. We identify several classification and regression prediction tasks across six standard molecule datasets. Subsequently, we carefully design a set of prompts to query LLMs on these tasks and compare their performance with existing Machine Learning (ML) models, which include text-based models and those specifically designed for analysing the geometric structure of molecules. Our investigation reveals several key insights: Firstly, LLMs generally lag behind ML models in achieving competitive performance on molecule tasks, particularly when compared to models adept at capturing the geometric structure of molecules, highlighting the constrained ability of LLMs to comprehend graph data. Secondly, LLMs show promise in enhancing the performance of ML models when used collaboratively. Lastly, we engage in a discourse regarding the challenges and promising avenues to harness LLMs for molecule prediction tasks. The code and models are available at https://github.com/zhiqiangzhongddu/LLMaMol.

Understanding the 3D structures of protein multimers is crucial, as they play a vital role in regulating various cellular processes. It has been empirically confirmed that the multimer structure prediction~(MSP) can be well handled in a step-wise assembly fashion using provided dimer structures and predicted protein-protein interactions~(PPIs). However, due to the biological gap in the formation of dimers and larger multimers, directly applying PPI prediction techniques can often cause a poor generalization to the MSP task. To address this challenge, we aim to extend the PPI knowledge to multimers of different scales~(i.e., chain numbers). Specifically, we propose \textsc{PromptMSP}, a pre-training and Prompt tuning framework for Multimer Structure Prediction. First, we tailor the source and target tasks for effective PPI knowledge learning and efficient inference, respectively. We design PPI-inspired prompt learning to narrow the gaps of two task formats and generalize the PPI knowledge to multimers of different scales. We provide a meta-learning strategy to learn a reliable initialization of the prompt model, enabling our prompting framework to effectively adapt to limited data for large-scale multimers. Empirically, we achieve both significant accuracy (RMSD and TM-Score) and efficiency improvements compared to advanced MSP models. The code, data and checkpoints are released at https://github.com/zqgao22/PromptMSP.

Modern Code Review (MCR) is an informal tool-assisted quality assurance practice. It relies on the asynchronous communication among the authors of code changes and reviewers, who are developers that provide feedback. However, from candidate developers, some are able to provide better feedback than others given a particular context. The selection of reviewers is thus an important task, which can benefit from automated support. Many approaches have been proposed in this direction, using for example data from code review repositories to recommend reviewers. In this paper, we propose the use of team-related features to improve the performance of predictions that are helpful to build code reviewer recommenders, with our target predictions being the identification of reviewers that would participate in a review and the provided amount of feedback. We evaluate the prediction power of these features, which are related to code ownership, workload, and team relationship. This evaluation was done by carefully addressing challenges imposed by the MCR domain, such as temporal aspects of the dataset and unbalanced classes. Moreover, given that it is currently unknown how much past data is needed for building MCR prediction models with acceptable performance, we explore the amount of past data used to build prediction models. Our results show that, individually, features related to code ownership have the best prediction power. However, based on feature selection, we conclude that all proposed features together with lines of code can make the best predictions for both reviewer participation and amount of feedback. Regarding the amount of past data, the timeframes of 3, 6, 9, and 12 months of data produce similar results. Therefore, models can be trained considering short timeframes, thus reducing the computational costs with negligible impact in the prediction performance ...

The impact of person-job fit on job satisfaction and performance is widely acknowledged, which highlights the importance of providing workers with next steps at the right time in their career. This task of predicting the next step in a career is known as career path prediction, and has diverse applications such as turnover prevention and internal job mobility. Existing methods to career path prediction rely on large amounts of private career history data to model the interactions between job titles and companies. We propose leveraging the unexplored textual descriptions that are part of work experience sections in resumes. We introduce a structured dataset of 2,164 anonymized career histories, annotated with ESCO occupation labels. Based on this dataset, we present a novel representation learning approach, CareerBERT, specifically designed for work history data. We develop a skill-based model and a text-based model for career path prediction, which achieve 35.24% and 39.61% recall@10 respectively on our dataset. Finally, we show that both approaches are complementary as a hybrid approach achieves the strongest result with 43.01% recall@10.

Multilingual self-supervised learning (SSL) has often lagged behind state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods due to the expenses and complexity required to handle many languages. This further harms the reproducibility of SSL, which is already limited to few research groups due to its resource usage. We show that more powerful techniques can actually lead to more efficient pre-training, opening SSL to more research groups. We propose WavLabLM, which extends WavLM's joint prediction and denoising to 40k hours of data across 136 languages. To build WavLabLM, we devise a novel multi-stage pre-training method, designed to address the language imbalance of multilingual data. WavLabLM achieves comparable performance to XLS-R on ML-SUPERB with less than 10% of the training data, making SSL realizable with academic compute. We show that further efficiency can be achieved with a vanilla HuBERT Base model, which can maintain 94% of XLS-R's performance with only 3% of the data, 4 GPUs, and limited trials. We open-source all code and models in ESPnet.

In this paper, we present the solution of our team HFUT-VUT for the MultiMediate Grand Challenge 2023 at ACM Multimedia 2023. The solution covers three sub-challenges: bodily behavior recognition, eye contact detection, and next speaker prediction. We select Swin Transformer as the baseline and exploit data augmentation strategies to address the above three tasks. Specifically, we crop the raw video to remove the noise from other parts. At the same time, we utilize data augmentation to improve the generalization of the model. As a result, our solution achieves the best results of 0.6262 for bodily behavior recognition in terms of mean average precision and the accuracy of 0.7771 for eye contact detection on the corresponding test set. In addition, our approach also achieves comparable results of 0.5281 for the next speaker prediction in terms of unweighted average recall.

Knee Osteoarthritis (KOA) is a highly prevalent chronic musculoskeletal condition with no currently available treatment. The manifestation of KOA is heterogeneous and prediction of its progression is challenging. Current literature suggests that the use of multi-modal data and advanced modeling methods, such as the ones based on Deep Learning, has promise in tackling this challenge. To date, however, the evidence on the efficacy of this approach is limited. In this study, we leveraged recent advances in Deep Learning and, using a Transformer approach, developed a unified framework for the multi-modal fusion of knee imaging data. Subsequently, we analyzed its performance across a range of scenarios by investigating multiple progression horizons -- from short-term to long-term. We report our findings using a large cohort (n=2421-3967) derived from the Osteoarthritis Initiative dataset. We show that structural knee MRI allows identifying radiographic KOA progressors on par with multi-modal fusion approaches, achieving an area under the ROC curve (ROC AUC) of 0.70-0.76 and Average Precision (AP) of 0.15-0.54 in 2-8 year horizons. Progression within 1 year was better predicted with a multi-modal method using X-ray, structural, and compositional MR images -- ROC AUC of 0.76(0.04), AP of 0.13(0.04) -- or via clinical data. Our follow-up analysis generally shows that prediction from the imaging data is more accurate for post-traumatic subjects, and we further investigate which subject subgroups may benefit the most. The present study provides novel insights into multi-modal imaging of KOA and brings a unified data-driven framework for studying its progression in an end-to-end manner, providing new tools for the design of more efficient clinical trials. The source code of our framework and the pre-trained models are made publicly available.

Federated Learning (FL) is a machine learning framework where many clients collaboratively train models while keeping the training data decentralized. Despite recent advances in FL, the uncertainty quantification topic (UQ) remains partially addressed. Among UQ methods, conformal prediction (CP) approaches provides distribution-free guarantees under minimal assumptions. We develop a new federated conformal prediction method based on quantile regression and take into account privacy constraints. This method takes advantage of importance weighting to effectively address the label shift between agents and provides theoretical guarantees for both valid coverage of the prediction sets and differential privacy. Extensive experimental studies demonstrate that this method outperforms current competitors.

In supervised learning, the question of data quality and curation has been over-shadowed in recent years by increasingly more powerful and expressive models that can ingest internet-scale data. However, in offline learning for robotics, we simply lack internet scale data, and so high quality datasets are a necessity. This is especially true in imitation learning (IL), a sample efficient paradigm for robot learning using expert demonstrations. Policies learned through IL suffer from state distribution shift at test time due to compounding errors in action prediction, which leads to unseen states that the policy cannot recover from. Instead of designing new algorithms to address distribution shift, an alternative perspective is to develop new ways of assessing and curating datasets. There is growing evidence that the same IL algorithms can have substantially different performance across different datasets. This calls for a formalism for defining metrics of "data quality" that can further be leveraged for data curation. In this work, we take the first step toward formalizing data quality for imitation learning through the lens of distribution shift: a high quality dataset encourages the policy to stay in distribution at test time. We propose two fundamental properties that shape the quality of a dataset: i) action divergence: the mismatch between the expert and learned policy at certain states; and ii) transition diversity: the noise present in the system for a given state and action. We investigate the combined effect of these two key properties in imitation learning theoretically, and we empirically analyze models trained on a variety of different data sources. We show that state diversity is not always beneficial, and we demonstrate how action divergence and transition diversity interact in practice.

Training data attribution (TDA) techniques find influential training data for the model's prediction on the test data of interest. They approximate the impact of down- or up-weighting a particular training sample. While conceptually useful, they are hardly applicable to deep models in practice, particularly because of their sensitivity to different model initialisation. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian perspective on the TDA task, where the learned model is treated as a Bayesian posterior and the TDA estimates as random variables. From this novel viewpoint, we observe that the influence of an individual training sample is often overshadowed by the noise stemming from model initialisation and SGD batch composition. Based on this observation, we argue that TDA can only be reliably used for explaining deep model predictions that are consistently influenced by certain training data, independent of other noise factors. Our experiments demonstrate the rarity of such noise-independent training-test data pairs but confirm their existence. We recommend that future researchers and practitioners trust TDA estimates only in such cases. Further, we find a disagreement between ground truth and estimated TDA distributions and encourage future work to study this gap. Code is provided at https://github.com/ElisaNguyen/bayesian-tda.

Class-incremental learning (CIL) is a particularly challenging variant of continual learning, where the goal is to learn to discriminate between all classes presented in an incremental fashion. Existing approaches often suffer from excessive forgetting and imbalance of the scores assigned to classes that have not been seen together during training. In this study, we introduce a novel approach, Prediction Error-based Classification (PEC), which differs from traditional discriminative and generative classification paradigms. PEC computes a class score by measuring the prediction error of a model trained to replicate the outputs of a frozen random neural network on data from that class. The method can be interpreted as approximating a classification rule based on Gaussian Process posterior variance. PEC offers several practical advantages, including sample efficiency, ease of tuning, and effectiveness even when data are presented one class at a time. Our empirical results show that PEC performs strongly in single-pass-through-data CIL, outperforming other rehearsal-free baselines in all cases and rehearsal-based methods with moderate replay buffer size in most cases across multiple benchmarks.

Guided sampling is a vital approach for applying diffusion models in real-world tasks that embeds human-defined guidance during the sampling procedure. This paper considers a general setting where the guidance is defined by an (unnormalized) energy function. The main challenge for this setting is that the intermediate guidance during the diffusion sampling procedure, which is jointly defined by the sampling distribution and the energy function, is unknown and is hard to estimate. To address this challenge, we propose an exact formulation of the intermediate guidance as well as a novel training objective named contrastive energy prediction (CEP) to learn the exact guidance. Our method is guaranteed to converge to the exact guidance under unlimited model capacity and data samples, while previous methods can not. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by applying it to offline reinforcement learning (RL). Extensive experiments on D4RL benchmarks demonstrate that our method outperforms existing state-of-the-art algorithms. We also provide some examples of applying CEP for image synthesis to demonstrate the scalability of CEP on high-dimensional data.

Being able to provide explanations for a model's decision has become a central requirement for the development, deployment, and adoption of machine learning models. However, we are yet to understand what explanation methods can and cannot do. How do upstream factors such as data, model prediction, hyperparameters, and random initialization influence downstream explanations? While previous work raised concerns that explanations (E) may have little relationship with the prediction (Y), there is a lack of conclusive study to quantify this relationship. Our work borrows tools from causal inference to systematically assay this relationship. More specifically, we study the relationship between E and Y by measuring the treatment effect when intervening on their causal ancestors, i.e., on hyperparameters and inputs used to generate saliency-based Es or Ys. Our results suggest that the relationships between E and Y is far from ideal. In fact, the gap between 'ideal' case only increase in higher-performing models -- models that are likely to be deployed. Our work is a promising first step towards providing a quantitative measure of the relationship between E and Y, which could also inform the future development of methods for E with a quantitative metric.

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile compared to traditional financial markets. Hence, forecasting its volatility is crucial for risk management. In this paper, we investigate CryptoQuant data (e.g. on-chain analytics, exchange and miner data) and whale-alert tweets, and explore their relationship to Bitcoin's next-day volatility, with a focus on extreme volatility spikes. We propose a deep learning Synthesizer Transformer model for forecasting volatility. Our results show that the model outperforms existing state-of-the-art models when forecasting extreme volatility spikes for Bitcoin using CryptoQuant data as well as whale-alert tweets. We analysed our model with the Captum XAI library to investigate which features are most important. We also backtested our prediction results with different baseline trading strategies and the results show that we are able to minimize drawdown while keeping steady profits. Our findings underscore that the proposed method is a useful tool for forecasting extreme volatility movements in the Bitcoin market.

Conformal prediction is a widely used method to quantify the uncertainty of a classifier under the assumption of exchangeability (e.g., IID data). We generalize conformal prediction to the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) framework where the assumption of exchangeability is not valid. The key idea of the proposed method is to partition the non-exchangeable Markovian data from the HMM into exchangeable blocks by exploiting the de Finetti's Theorem for Markov Chains discovered by Diaconis and Freedman (1980). The permutations of the exchangeable blocks are viewed as randomizations of the observed Markovian data from the HMM. The proposed method provably retains all desirable theoretical guarantees offered by the classical conformal prediction framework in both exchangeable and Markovian settings. In particular, while the lack of exchangeability introduced by Markovian samples constitutes a violation of a crucial assumption for classical conformal prediction, the proposed method views it as an advantage that can be exploited to improve the performance further. Detailed numerical and empirical results that complement the theoretical conclusions are provided to illustrate the practical feasibility of the proposed method.

Knowledge Graphs (KGs) are symbolically structured storages of facts. The KG embedding contains concise data used in NLP tasks requiring implicit information about the real world. Furthermore, the size of KGs that may be useful in actual NLP assignments is enormous, and creating embedding over it has memory cost issues. We represent KG as a 3rd-order binary tensor and move beyond the standard CP decomposition by using a data-specific generalized version of it. The generalization of the standard CP-ALS algorithm allows obtaining optimization gradients without a backpropagation mechanism. It reduces the memory needed in training while providing computational benefits. We propose a MEKER, a memory-efficient KG embedding model, which yields SOTA-comparable performance on link prediction tasks and KG-based Question Answering.

Data augmentation is becoming essential for improving regression performance in critical applications including manufacturing, climate prediction, and finance. Existing techniques for data augmentation largely focus on classification tasks and do not readily apply to regression tasks. In particular, the recent Mixup techniques for classification have succeeded in improving the model performance, which is reasonable due to the characteristics of the classification task, but has limitations in regression. We show that mixing examples that have large data distances using linear interpolations may have increasingly-negative effects on model performance. Our key idea is thus to limit the distances between examples that are mixed. We propose RegMix, a data augmentation framework for regression that learns for each example how many nearest neighbors it should be mixed with for the best model performance using a validation set. Our experiments conducted both on synthetic and real datasets show that RegMix outperforms state-of-the-art data augmentation baselines applicable to regression.

Existing open-domain dialog models are generally trained to minimize the perplexity of target human responses. However, some human replies are more engaging than others, spawning more followup interactions. Current conversational models are increasingly capable of producing turns that are context-relevant, but in order to produce compelling agents, these models need to be able to predict and optimize for turns that are genuinely engaging. We leverage social media feedback data (number of replies and upvotes) to build a large-scale training dataset for feedback prediction. To alleviate possible distortion between the feedback and engagingness, we convert the ranking problem to a comparison of response pairs which involve few confounding factors. We trained DialogRPT, a set of GPT-2 based models on 133M pairs of human feedback data and the resulting ranker outperformed several baselines. Particularly, our ranker outperforms the conventional dialog perplexity baseline with a large margin on predicting Reddit feedback. We finally combine the feedback prediction models and a human-like scoring model to rank the machine-generated dialog responses. Crowd-sourced human evaluation shows that our ranking method correlates better with real human preferences than baseline models.

Inferring objects and their relationships from an image in the form of a scene graph is useful in many applications at the intersection of vision and language. We consider a challenging problem of compositional generalization that emerges in this task due to a long tail data distribution. Current scene graph generation models are trained on a tiny fraction of the distribution corresponding to the most frequent compositions, e.g. <cup, on, table>. However, test images might contain zero- and few-shot compositions of objects and relationships, e.g. <cup, on, surfboard>. Despite each of the object categories and the predicate (e.g. 'on') being frequent in the training data, the models often fail to properly understand such unseen or rare compositions. To improve generalization, it is natural to attempt increasing the diversity of the training distribution. However, in the graph domain this is non-trivial. To that end, we propose a method to synthesize rare yet plausible scene graphs by perturbing real ones. We then propose and empirically study a model based on conditional generative adversarial networks (GANs) that allows us to generate visual features of perturbed scene graphs and learn from them in a joint fashion. When evaluated on the Visual Genome dataset, our approach yields marginal, but consistent improvements in zero- and few-shot metrics. We analyze the limitations of our approach indicating promising directions for future research.

The correct use of Dutch pronouns 'die' and 'dat' is a stumbling block for both native and non-native speakers of Dutch due to the multiplicity of syntactic functions and the dependency on the antecedent's gender and number. Drawing on previous research conducted on neural context-dependent dt-mistake correction models (Heyman et al. 2018), this study constructs the first neural network model for Dutch demonstrative and relative pronoun resolution that specifically focuses on the correction and part-of-speech prediction of these two pronouns. Two separate datasets are built with sentences obtained from, respectively, the Dutch Europarl corpus (Koehn 2015) - which contains the proceedings of the European Parliament from 1996 to the present - and the SoNaR corpus (Oostdijk et al. 2013) - which contains Dutch texts from a variety of domains such as newspapers, blogs and legal texts. Firstly, a binary classification model solely predicts the correct 'die' or 'dat'. The classifier with a bidirectional long short-term memory architecture achieves 84.56% accuracy. Secondly, a multitask classification model simultaneously predicts the correct 'die' or 'dat' and its part-of-speech tag. The model containing a combination of a sentence and context encoder with both a bidirectional long short-term memory architecture results in 88.63% accuracy for die/dat prediction and 87.73% accuracy for part-of-speech prediction. More evenly-balanced data, larger word embeddings, an extra bidirectional long short-term memory layer and integrated part-of-speech knowledge positively affects die/dat prediction performance, while a context encoder architecture raises part-of-speech prediction performance. This study shows promising results and can serve as a starting point for future research on machine learning models for Dutch anaphora resolution.

Financial markets have a vital role in the development of modern society. They allow the deployment of economic resources. Changes in stock prices reflect changes in the market. In this study, we focus on predicting stock prices by deep learning model. This is a challenge task, because there is much noise and uncertainty in information that is related to stock prices. So this work uses sparse autoencoders with one-dimension (1-D) residual convolutional networks which is a deep learning model, to de-noise the data. Long-short term memory (LSTM) is then used to predict the stock price. The prices, indices and macroeconomic variables in past are the features used to predict the next day's price. Experiment results show that 1-D residual convolutional networks can de-noise data and extract deep features better than a model that combines wavelet transforms (WT) and stacked autoencoders (SAEs). In addition, we compare the performances of model with two different forecast targets of stock price: absolute stock price and price rate of change. The results show that predicting stock price through price rate of change is better than predicting absolute prices directly.

Legal judgment prediction is the task of automatically predicting the outcome of a court case, given a text describing the case's facts. Previous work on using neural models for this task has focused on Chinese; only feature-based models (e.g., using bags of words and topics) have been considered in English. We release a new English legal judgment prediction dataset, containing cases from the European Court of Human Rights. We evaluate a broad variety of neural models on the new dataset, establishing strong baselines that surpass previous feature-based models in three tasks: (1) binary violation classification; (2) multi-label classification; (3) case importance prediction. We also explore if models are biased towards demographic information via data anonymization. As a side-product, we propose a hierarchical version of BERT, which bypasses BERT's length limitation.

This article presents the prediction difference analysis method for visualizing the response of a deep neural network to a specific input. When classifying images, the method highlights areas in a given input image that provide evidence for or against a certain class. It overcomes several shortcoming of previous methods and provides great additional insight into the decision making process of classifiers. Making neural network decisions interpretable through visualization is important both to improve models and to accelerate the adoption of black-box classifiers in application areas such as medicine. We illustrate the method in experiments on natural images (ImageNet data), as well as medical images (MRI brain scans).

Training data attribution (TDA) methods aim to measure how training data impacts a model's predictions. While gradient-based attribution methods, such as influence functions, offer theoretical grounding, their computational costs make them impractical for large-scale applications. Representation-based approaches are far more scalable, but typically rely on heuristic embeddings that are not optimized for attribution, limiting their fidelity. To address these challenges, we propose AirRep, a scalable, representation-based approach that closes this gap by learning task-specific and model-aligned representations optimized explicitly for TDA. AirRep introduces two key innovations: a trainable encoder tuned for attribution quality, and an attention-based pooling mechanism that enables accurate estimation of group-wise influence. We train AirRep using a ranking objective over automatically constructed training subsets labeled by their empirical effect on target predictions. Experiments on instruction-tuned LLMs demonstrate that AirRep achieves performance on par with state-of-the-art gradient-based approaches while being nearly two orders of magnitude more efficient at inference time. Further analysis highlights its robustness and generalization across tasks and models. Our code is available at https://github.com/sunnweiwei/AirRep.

Floods cause extensive global damage annually, making effective monitoring essential. While satellite observations have proven invaluable for flood detection and tracking, comprehensive global flood datasets spanning extended time periods remain scarce. In this study, we introduce a novel deep learning flood detection model that leverages the cloud-penetrating capabilities of Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite imagery, enabling consistent flood extent mapping in any weather condition. By applying this model to nearly 10 years of SAR data, we create a unique, longitudinal global flood extent dataset with predictions unaffected by cloud coverage, offering comprehensive and consistent insights into historically flood-prone areas over the past decade. We use our model predictions to identify historically flood-prone areas in Ethiopia and demonstrate real-time disaster response capabilities during the May 2024 floods in Kenya. Additionally, our longitudinal analysis reveals potential increasing trends in global flood extent over time, although further validation is required to explore links to climate change. To maximize impact, we provide public access to both our model predictions and a code repository, empowering researchers and practitioners worldwide to advance flood monitoring and enhance disaster response strategies.

Hierarchical vision transformers (ViTs) have two advantages over conventional ViTs. First, hierarchical ViTs achieve linear computational complexity with respect to image size by local self-attention. Second, hierarchical ViTs create hierarchical feature maps by merging image patches in deeper layers for dense prediction. However, existing pruning methods ignore the unique properties of hierarchical ViTs and use the magnitude value as the weight importance. This approach leads to two main drawbacks. First, the "local" attention weights are compared at a "global" level, which may cause some "locally" important weights to be pruned due to their relatively small magnitude "globally". The second issue with magnitude pruning is that it fails to consider the distinct weight distributions of the network, which are essential for extracting coarse to fine-grained features at various hierarchical levels. To solve the aforementioned issues, we have developed a Data-independent Module-Aware Pruning method (DIMAP) to compress hierarchical ViTs. To ensure that "local" attention weights at different hierarchical levels are compared fairly in terms of their contribution, we treat them as a module and examine their contribution by analyzing their information distortion. Furthermore, we introduce a novel weight metric that is solely based on weights and does not require input images, thereby eliminating the dependence on the patch merging process. Our method validates its usefulness and strengths on Swin Transformers of different sizes on ImageNet-1k classification. Notably, the top-5 accuracy drop is only 0.07% when we remove 52.5% FLOPs and 52.7% parameters of Swin-B. When we reduce 33.2% FLOPs and 33.2% parameters of Swin-S, we can even achieve a 0.8% higher relative top-5 accuracy than the original model. Code is available at: https://github.com/he-y/Data-independent-Module-Aware-Pruning

Since real-world training datasets cannot properly sample the long tail of the underlying data distribution, corner cases and rare out-of-domain samples can severely hinder the performance of state-of-the-art models. This problem becomes even more severe for dense tasks, such as 3D semantic segmentation, where points of non-standard objects can be confidently associated to the wrong class. In this work, we focus on improving the generalization to out-of-domain data. We achieve this by augmenting the training set with adversarial examples. First, we learn a set of vectors that deform the objects in an adversarial fashion. To prevent the adversarial examples from being too far from the existing data distribution, we preserve their plausibility through a series of constraints, ensuring sensor-awareness and shapes smoothness. Then, we perform adversarial augmentation by applying the learned sample-independent vectors to the available objects when training a model. We conduct extensive experiments across a variety of scenarios on data from KITTI, Waymo, and CrashD for 3D object detection, and on data from SemanticKITTI, Waymo, and nuScenes for 3D semantic segmentation. Despite training on a standard single dataset, our approach substantially improves the robustness and generalization of both 3D object detection and 3D semantic segmentation methods to out-of-domain data.

Clinical predictive models often rely on patients' electronic health records (EHR), but integrating medical knowledge to enhance predictions and decision-making is challenging. This is because personalized predictions require personalized knowledge graphs (KGs), which are difficult to generate from patient EHR data. To address this, we propose GraphCare, an open-world framework that uses external KGs to improve EHR-based predictions. Our method extracts knowledge from large language models (LLMs) and external biomedical KGs to build patient-specific KGs, which are then used to train our proposed Bi-attention AugmenTed (BAT) graph neural network (GNN) for healthcare predictions. On two public datasets, MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV, GraphCare surpasses baselines in four vital healthcare prediction tasks: mortality, readmission, length of stay (LOS), and drug recommendation. On MIMIC-III, it boosts AUROC by 17.6\% and 6.6\% for mortality and readmission, and F1-score by 7.9\% and 10.8\% for LOS and drug recommendation, respectively. Notably, GraphCare demonstrates a substantial edge in scenarios with limited data availability. Our findings highlight the potential of using external KGs in healthcare prediction tasks and demonstrate the promise of GraphCare in generating personalized KGs for promoting personalized medicine.

Language model pre-training has proven to be useful in many language understanding tasks. In this paper, we investigate whether it is still helpful to add the self-training method in the pre-training step and the fine-tuning step. Towards this goal, we propose a learning framework that making best use of the unlabel data on the low-resource and high-resource labeled dataset. In industry NLP applications, we have large amounts of data produced by users or customers. Our learning framework is based on this large amounts of unlabel data. First, We use the model fine-tuned on manually labeled dataset to predict pseudo labels for the user-generated unlabeled data. Then we use the pseudo labels to supervise the task-specific training on the large amounts of user-generated data. We consider this task-specific training step on pseudo labels as a pre-training step for the next fine-tuning step. At last, we fine-tune on the manually labeled dataset upon the pre-trained model. In this work, we first empirically show that our method is able to solidly improve the performance by 3.6%, when the manually labeled fine-tuning dataset is relatively small. Then we also show that our method still is able to improve the performance further by 0.2%, when the manually labeled fine-tuning dataset is relatively large enough. We argue that our method make the best use of the unlabel data, which is superior to either pre-training or self-training alone.

Various industries such as finance, meteorology, and energy generate vast amounts of heterogeneous data every day. There is a natural demand for humans to manage, process, and display data efficiently. However, it necessitates labor-intensive efforts and a high level of expertise for these data-related tasks. Considering that large language models (LLMs) have showcased promising capabilities in semantic understanding and reasoning, we advocate that the deployment of LLMs could autonomously manage and process massive amounts of data while displaying and interacting in a human-friendly manner. Based on this belief, we propose Data-Copilot, an LLM-based system that connects numerous data sources on one end and caters to diverse human demands on the other end. Acting like an experienced expert, Data-Copilot autonomously transforms raw data into visualization results that best match the user's intent. Specifically, Data-Copilot autonomously designs versatile interfaces (tools) for data management, processing, prediction, and visualization. In real-time response, it automatically deploys a concise workflow by invoking corresponding interfaces step by step for the user's request. The interface design and deployment processes are fully controlled by Data-Copilot itself, without human assistance. Besides, we create a Data-Copilot demo that links abundant data from different domains (stock, fund, company, economics, and live news) and accurately respond to diverse requests, serving as a reliable AI assistant.

Activity and property prediction models are the central workhorses in drug discovery and materials sciences, but currently they have to be trained or fine-tuned for new tasks. Without training or fine-tuning, scientific language models could be used for such low-data tasks through their announced zero- and few-shot capabilities. However, their predictive quality at activity prediction is lacking. In this work, we envision a novel type of activity prediction model that is able to adapt to new prediction tasks at inference time, via understanding textual information describing the task. To this end, we propose a new architecture with separate modules for chemical and natural language inputs, and a contrastive pre-training objective on data from large biochemical databases. In extensive experiments, we show that our method CLAMP yields improved predictive performance on few-shot learning benchmarks and zero-shot problems in drug discovery. We attribute the advances of our method to the modularized architecture and to our pre-training objective.

The early prediction of battery life (EPBL) is vital for enhancing the efficiency and extending the lifespan of lithium batteries. Traditional models with fixed architectures often encounter underfitting or overfitting issues due to the diverse data distributions in different EPBL tasks. An interpretable deep learning model of flexible parallel neural network (FPNN) is proposed, which includes an InceptionBlock, a 3D convolutional neural network (CNN), a 2D CNN, and a dual-stream network. The proposed model effectively extracts electrochemical features from video-like formatted data using the 3D CNN and achieves advanced multi-scale feature abstraction through the InceptionBlock. The FPNN can adaptively adjust the number of InceptionBlocks to flexibly handle tasks of varying complexity in EPBL. The test on the MIT dataset shows that the FPNN model achieves outstanding predictive accuracy in EPBL tasks, with MAPEs of 2.47%, 1.29%, 1.08%, and 0.88% when the input cyclic data volumes are 10, 20, 30, and 40, respectively. The interpretability of the FPNN is mainly reflected in its flexible unit structure and parameter selection: its diverse branching structure enables the model to capture features at different scales, thus allowing the machine to learn informative features. The approach presented herein provides an accurate, adaptable, and comprehensible solution for early life prediction of lithium batteries, opening new possibilities in the field of battery health monitoring.

To achieve seamless collaboration between robots and humans in a shared environment, accurately predicting future human movements is essential. Human motion prediction has traditionally been approached as a sequence prediction problem, leveraging historical human motion data to estimate future poses. Beginning with vanilla recurrent networks, the research community has investigated a variety of methods for learning human motion dynamics, encompassing graph-based and generative approaches. Despite these efforts, achieving accurate long-term predictions continues to be a significant challenge. In this regard, we present the Adversarial Motion Transformer (AdvMT), a novel model that integrates a transformer-based motion encoder and a temporal continuity discriminator. This combination effectively captures spatial and temporal dependencies simultaneously within frames. With adversarial training, our method effectively reduces the unwanted artifacts in predictions, thereby ensuring the learning of more realistic and fluid human motions. The evaluation results indicate that AdvMT greatly enhances the accuracy of long-term predictions while also delivering robust short-term predictions

Query-document relevance prediction is a critical problem in Information Retrieval systems. This problem has increasingly been tackled using (pretrained) transformer-based models which are finetuned using large collections of labeled data. However, in specialized domains such as e-commerce and healthcare, the viability of this approach is limited by the dearth of large in-domain data. To address this paucity, recent methods leverage these powerful models to generate high-quality task and domain-specific synthetic data. Prior work has largely explored synthetic data generation or query generation (QGen) for Question-Answering (QA) and binary (yes/no) relevance prediction, where for instance, the QGen models are given a document, and trained to generate a query relevant to that document. However in many problems, we have a more fine-grained notion of relevance than a simple yes/no label. Thus, in this work, we conduct a detailed study into how QGen approaches can be leveraged for nuanced relevance prediction. We demonstrate that -- contrary to claims from prior works -- current QGen approaches fall short of the more conventional cross-domain transfer-learning approaches. Via empirical studies spanning 3 public e-commerce benchmarks, we identify new shortcomings of existing QGen approaches -- including their inability to distinguish between different grades of relevance. To address this, we introduce label-conditioned QGen models which incorporates knowledge about the different relevance. While our experiments demonstrate that these modifications help improve performance of QGen techniques, we also find that QGen approaches struggle to capture the full nuance of the relevance label space and as a result the generated queries are not faithful to the desired relevance label.

As black-box models increasingly power high-stakes applications, a variety of data-driven explanation methods have been introduced. Meanwhile, machine learning models are constantly challenged by distributional shifts. A question naturally arises: Are data-driven explanations robust against out-of-distribution data? Our empirical results show that even though predict correctly, the model might still yield unreliable explanations under distributional shifts. How to develop robust explanations against out-of-distribution data? To address this problem, we propose an end-to-end model-agnostic learning framework Distributionally Robust Explanations (DRE). The key idea is, inspired by self-supervised learning, to fully utilizes the inter-distribution information to provide supervisory signals for the learning of explanations without human annotation. Can robust explanations benefit the model's generalization capability? We conduct extensive experiments on a wide range of tasks and data types, including classification and regression on image and scientific tabular data. Our results demonstrate that the proposed method significantly improves the model's performance in terms of explanation and prediction robustness against distributional shifts.

As the development of cities, traffic congestion becomes an increasingly pressing issue, and traffic prediction is a classic method to relieve that issue. Traffic prediction is one specific application of spatio-temporal prediction learning, like taxi scheduling, weather prediction, and ship trajectory prediction. Against these problems, classical spatio-temporal prediction learning methods including deep learning, require large amounts of training data. In reality, some newly developed cities with insufficient sensors would not hold that assumption, and the data scarcity makes predictive performance worse. In such situation, the learning method on insufficient data is known as few-shot learning (FSL), and the FSL of traffic prediction remains challenges. On the one hand, graph structures' irregularity and dynamic nature of graphs cannot hold the performance of spatio-temporal learning method. On the other hand, conventional domain adaptation methods cannot work well on insufficient training data, when transferring knowledge from different domains to the intended target domain.To address these challenges, we propose a novel spatio-temporal domain adaptation (STDA) method that learns transferable spatio-temporal meta-knowledge from data-sufficient cities in an adversarial manner. This learned meta-knowledge can improve the prediction performance of data-scarce cities. Specifically, we train the STDA model using a Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning (MAML) based episode learning process, which is a model-agnostic meta-learning framework that enables the model to solve new learning tasks using only a small number of training samples. We conduct numerous experiments on four traffic prediction datasets, and our results show that the prediction performance of our model has improved by 7\% compared to baseline models on the two metrics of MAE and RMSE.

A central challenge of video prediction lies where the system has to reason the objects' future motions from image frames while simultaneously maintaining the consistency of their appearances across frames. This work introduces an end-to-end trainable two-stream video prediction framework, Motion-Matrix-based Video Prediction (MMVP), to tackle this challenge. Unlike previous methods that usually handle motion prediction and appearance maintenance within the same set of modules, MMVP decouples motion and appearance information by constructing appearance-agnostic motion matrices. The motion matrices represent the temporal similarity of each and every pair of feature patches in the input frames, and are the sole input of the motion prediction module in MMVP. This design improves video prediction in both accuracy and efficiency, and reduces the model size. Results of extensive experiments demonstrate that MMVP outperforms state-of-the-art systems on public data sets by non-negligible large margins (about 1 db in PSNR, UCF Sports) in significantly smaller model sizes (84% the size or smaller).

Traffic prediction is essential for the progression of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) and the vision of smart cities. While Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Networks (STGNNs) have shown promise in this domain by leveraging Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) integrated with either RNNs or Transformers, they present challenges such as computational complexity, gradient issues, and resource-intensiveness. This paper addresses these challenges, advocating for three main solutions: a node-embedding approach, time series decomposition, and periodicity learning. We introduce STLinear, a minimalist model architecture designed for optimized efficiency and performance. Unlike traditional STGNNs, STlinear operates fully locally, avoiding inter-node data exchanges, and relies exclusively on linear layers, drastically cutting computational demands. Our empirical studies on real-world datasets confirm STLinear's prowess, matching or exceeding the accuracy of leading STGNNs, but with significantly reduced complexity and computation overhead (more than 95% reduction in MACs per epoch compared to state-of-the-art STGNN baseline published in 2023). In summary, STLinear emerges as a potent, efficient alternative to conventional STGNNs, with profound implications for the future of ITS and smart city initiatives.

Exploring spatial-temporal dependencies from observed motions is one of the core challenges of human motion prediction. Previous methods mainly focus on dedicated network structures to model the spatial and temporal dependencies. This paper considers a new direction by introducing a model learning framework with auxiliary tasks. In our auxiliary tasks, partial body joints' coordinates are corrupted by either masking or adding noise and the goal is to recover corrupted coordinates depending on the rest coordinates. To work with auxiliary tasks, we propose a novel auxiliary-adapted transformer, which can handle incomplete, corrupted motion data and achieve coordinate recovery via capturing spatial-temporal dependencies. Through auxiliary tasks, the auxiliary-adapted transformer is promoted to capture more comprehensive spatial-temporal dependencies among body joints' coordinates, leading to better feature learning. Extensive experimental results have shown that our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods by remarkable margins of 7.2%, 3.7%, and 9.4% in terms of 3D mean per joint position error (MPJPE) on the Human3.6M, CMU Mocap, and 3DPW datasets, respectively. We also demonstrate that our method is more robust under data missing cases and noisy data cases. Code is available at https://github.com/MediaBrain-SJTU/AuxFormer.

Financial risk prediction plays a crucial role in the financial sector. Machine learning methods have been widely applied for automatically detecting potential risks and thus saving the cost of labor. However, the development in this field is lagging behind in recent years by the following two facts: 1) the algorithms used are somewhat outdated, especially in the context of the fast advance of generative AI and large language models (LLMs); 2) the lack of a unified and open-sourced financial benchmark has impeded the related research for years. To tackle these issues, we propose FinPT and FinBench: the former is a novel approach for financial risk prediction that conduct Profile Tuning on large pretrained foundation models, and the latter is a set of high-quality datasets on financial risks such as default, fraud, and churn. In FinPT, we fill the financial tabular data into the pre-defined instruction template, obtain natural-language customer profiles by prompting LLMs, and fine-tune large foundation models with the profile text to make predictions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed FinPT by experimenting with a range of representative strong baselines on FinBench. The analytical studies further deepen the understanding of LLMs for financial risk prediction.

Specifying reward signals that allow agents to learn complex behaviors is a long-standing challenge in reinforcement learning. A promising approach is to extract preferences for behaviors from unlabeled videos, which are widely available on the internet. We present Video Prediction Rewards (VIPER), an algorithm that leverages pretrained video prediction models as action-free reward signals for reinforcement learning. Specifically, we first train an autoregressive transformer on expert videos and then use the video prediction likelihoods as reward signals for a reinforcement learning agent. VIPER enables expert-level control without programmatic task rewards across a wide range of DMC, Atari, and RLBench tasks. Moreover, generalization of the video prediction model allows us to derive rewards for an out-of-distribution environment where no expert data is available, enabling cross-embodiment generalization for tabletop manipulation. We see our work as starting point for scalable reward specification from unlabeled videos that will benefit from the rapid advances in generative modeling. Source code and datasets are available on the project website: https://escontrela.me/viper

Humans and animals have a rich and flexible understanding of the physical world, which enables them to infer the underlying dynamical trajectories of objects and events, plausible future states, and use that to plan and anticipate the consequences of actions. However, the neural mechanisms underlying these computations are unclear. We combine a goal-driven modeling approach with dense neurophysiological data and high-throughput human behavioral readouts to directly impinge on this question. Specifically, we construct and evaluate several classes of sensory-cognitive networks to predict the future state of rich, ethologically-relevant environments, ranging from self-supervised end-to-end models with pixel-wise or object-centric objectives, to models that future predict in the latent space of purely static image-based or dynamic video-based pretrained foundation models. We find strong differentiation across these model classes in their ability to predict neural and behavioral data both within and across diverse environments. In particular, we find that neural responses are currently best predicted by models trained to predict the future state of their environment in the latent space of pretrained foundation models optimized for dynamic scenes in a self-supervised manner. Notably, models that future predict in the latent space of video foundation models that are optimized to support a diverse range of sensorimotor tasks, reasonably match both human behavioral error patterns and neural dynamics across all environmental scenarios that we were able to test. Overall, these findings suggest that the neural mechanisms and behaviors of primate mental simulation are thus far most consistent with being optimized to future predict on dynamic, reusable visual representations that are useful for embodied AI more generally.

Recently, the topic of table pre-training has attracted considerable research interest. However, how to employ table pre-training to boost the performance of tabular prediction remains an open challenge. In this paper, we propose TapTap, the first attempt that leverages table pre-training to empower models for tabular prediction. After pre-training on a large corpus of real-world tabular data, TapTap can generate high-quality synthetic tables to support various applications on tabular data, including privacy protection, low resource regime, missing value imputation, and imbalanced classification. Extensive experiments on 12 datasets demonstrate that TapTap outperforms a total of 16 baselines in different scenarios. Meanwhile, it can be easily combined with various backbone models, including LightGBM, Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Transformer. Moreover, with the aid of table pre-training, models trained using synthetic data generated by TapTap can even compete with models using the original dataset on half of the experimental datasets, marking a milestone in the development of synthetic tabular data generation. The codes are available at https://github.com/ZhangTP1996/TapTap.

In data poisoning attacks, an adversary tries to change a model's prediction by adding, modifying, or removing samples in the training data. Recently, ensemble-based approaches for obtaining provable defenses against data poisoning have been proposed where predictions are done by taking a majority vote across multiple base models. In this work, we show that merely considering the majority vote in ensemble defenses is wasteful as it does not effectively utilize available information in the logits layers of the base models. Instead, we propose Run-Off Election (ROE), a novel aggregation method based on a two-round election across the base models: In the first round, models vote for their preferred class and then a second, Run-Off election is held between the top two classes in the first round. Based on this approach, we propose DPA+ROE and FA+ROE defense methods based on Deep Partition Aggregation (DPA) and Finite Aggregation (FA) approaches from prior work. We evaluate our methods on MNIST, CIFAR-10, and GTSRB and obtain improvements in certified accuracy by up to 3%-4%. Also, by applying ROE on a boosted version of DPA, we gain improvements around 12%-27% comparing to the current state-of-the-art, establishing a new state-of-the-art in (pointwise) certified robustness against data poisoning. In many cases, our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art, even when using 32 times less computational power.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are able to achieve high classification accuracy on many important real world datasets, but provide no rigorous notion of predictive uncertainty. Quantifying the confidence of GNN models is difficult due to the dependence between datapoints induced by the graph structure. We leverage recent advances in conformal prediction to construct prediction sets for node classification in inductive learning scenarios. We do this by taking an existing approach for conformal classification that relies on exchangeable data and modifying it by appropriately weighting the conformal scores to reflect the network structure. We show through experiments on standard benchmark datasets using popular GNN models that our approach provides tighter and better calibrated prediction sets than a naive application of conformal prediction.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have shown exceptional performance in the task of link prediction. Despite their effectiveness, the high latency brought by non-trivial neighborhood data dependency limits GNNs in practical deployments. Conversely, the known efficient MLPs are much less effective than GNNs due to the lack of relational knowledge. In this work, to combine the advantages of GNNs and MLPs, we start with exploring direct knowledge distillation (KD) methods for link prediction, i.e., predicted logit-based matching and node representation-based matching. Upon observing direct KD analogs do not perform well for link prediction, we propose a relational KD framework, Linkless Link Prediction (LLP), to distill knowledge for link prediction with MLPs. Unlike simple KD methods that match independent link logits or node representations, LLP distills relational knowledge that is centered around each (anchor) node to the student MLP. Specifically, we propose rank-based matching and distribution-based matching strategies that complement each other. Extensive experiments demonstrate that LLP boosts the link prediction performance of MLPs with significant margins, and even outperforms the teacher GNNs on 7 out of 8 benchmarks. LLP also achieves a 70.68x speedup in link prediction inference compared to GNNs on the large-scale OGB dataset.

Rich user behavior data has been proven to be of great value for Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction applications, especially in industrial recommender, search, or advertising systems. However, it's non-trivial for real-world systems to make full use of long-term user behaviors due to the strict requirements of online serving time. Most previous works adopt the retrieval-based strategy, where a small number of user behaviors are retrieved first for subsequent attention. However, the retrieval-based methods are sub-optimal and would cause more or less information losses, and it's difficult to balance the effectiveness and efficiency of the retrieval algorithm. In this paper, we propose SDIM (Sampling-based Deep Interest Modeling), a simple yet effective sampling-based end-to-end approach for modeling long-term user behaviors. We sample from multiple hash functions to generate hash signatures of the candidate item and each item in the user behavior sequence, and obtain the user interest by directly gathering behavior items associated with the candidate item with the same hash signature. We show theoretically and experimentally that the proposed method performs on par with standard attention-based models on modeling long-term user behaviors, while being sizable times faster. We also introduce the deployment of SDIM in our system. Specifically, we decouple the behavior sequence hashing, which is the most time-consuming part, from the CTR model by designing a separate module named BSE (behavior Sequence Encoding). BSE is latency-free for the CTR server, enabling us to model extremely long user behaviors. Both offline and online experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of SDIM. SDIM now has been deployed online in the search system of Meituan APP.

Developing an accurate tourism forecasting model is essential for making desirable policy decisions for tourism management. Early studies on tourism management focus on discovering external factors related to tourism demand. Recent studies utilize deep learning in demand forecasting along with these external factors. They mainly use recursive neural network models such as LSTM and RNN for their frameworks. However, these models are not suitable for use in forecasting tourism demand. This is because tourism demand is strongly affected by changes in various external factors, and recursive neural network models have limitations in handling these multivariate inputs. We propose a multi-head attention CNN model (MHAC) for addressing these limitations. The MHAC uses 1D-convolutional neural network to analyze temporal patterns and the attention mechanism to reflect correlations between input variables. This model makes it possible to extract spatiotemporal characteristics from time-series data of various variables. We apply our forecasting framework to predict inbound tourist changes in South Korea by considering external factors such as politics, disease, season, and attraction of Korean culture. The performance results of extensive experiments show that our method outperforms other deep-learning-based prediction frameworks in South Korea tourism forecasting.

We present a novel multi-modal unspoken punctuation prediction system for the English language which combines acoustic and text features. We demonstrate for the first time, that by relying exclusively on synthetic data generated using a prosody-aware text-to-speech system, we can outperform a model trained with expensive human audio recordings on the unspoken punctuation prediction problem. Our model architecture is well suited for on-device use. This is achieved by leveraging hash-based embeddings of automatic speech recognition text output in conjunction with acoustic features as input to a quasi-recurrent neural network, keeping the model size small and latency low.

Discovering the underlying behavior of complex systems is an important topic in many science and engineering disciplines. In this paper, we propose a novel neural network framework, finite difference neural networks (FDNet), to learn partial differential equations from data. Specifically, our proposed finite difference inspired network is designed to learn the underlying governing partial differential equations from trajectory data, and to iteratively estimate the future dynamical behavior using only a few trainable parameters. We illustrate the performance (predictive power) of our framework on the heat equation, with and without noise and/or forcing, and compare our results to the Forward Euler method. Moreover, we show the advantages of using a Hessian-Free Trust Region method to train the network.

This large scale study focuses on quantifying what X-rays diagnostic prediction tasks generalize well across multiple different datasets. We present evidence that the issue of generalization is not due to a shift in the images but instead a shift in the labels. We study the cross-domain performance, agreement between models, and model representations. We find interesting discrepancies between performance and agreement where models which both achieve good performance disagree in their predictions as well as models which agree yet achieve poor performance. We also test for concept similarity by regularizing a network to group tasks across multiple datasets together and observe variation across the tasks. All code is made available online and data is publicly available: https://github.com/mlmed/torchxrayvision

The prediction of saliency areas in images has been traditionally addressed with hand crafted features based on neuroscience principles. This paper however addresses the problem with a completely data-driven approach by training a convolutional network. The learning process is formulated as a minimization of a loss function that measures the Euclidean distance of the predicted saliency map with the provided ground truth. The recent publication of large datasets of saliency prediction has provided enough data to train a not very deep architecture which is both fast and accurate. The convolutional network in this paper, named JuntingNet, won the LSUN 2015 challenge on saliency prediction with a superior performance in all considered metrics.