Daily Papers

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance across diverse tasks by encoding vast amounts of factual knowledge. However, they are still prone to hallucinations, generating incorrect or misleading information, often accompanied by high uncertainty. Existing methods for hallucination detection primarily focus on quantifying internal uncertainty, which arises from missing or conflicting knowledge within the model. However, hallucinations can also stem from external uncertainty, where ambiguous user queries lead to multiple possible interpretations. In this work, we introduce Semantic Volume, a novel mathematical measure for quantifying both external and internal uncertainty in LLMs. Our approach perturbs queries and responses, embeds them in a semantic space, and computes the determinant of the Gram matrix of the embedding vectors, capturing their dispersion as a measure of uncertainty. Our framework provides a generalizable and unsupervised uncertainty detection method without requiring white-box access to LLMs. We conduct extensive experiments on both external and internal uncertainty detection, demonstrating that our Semantic Volume method consistently outperforms existing baselines in both tasks. Additionally, we provide theoretical insights linking our measure to differential entropy, unifying and extending previous sampling-based uncertainty measures such as the semantic entropy. Semantic Volume is shown to be a robust and interpretable approach to improving the reliability of LLMs by systematically detecting uncertainty in both user queries and model responses.

Knowledge-based visual question answering (KVQA) task aims to answer questions that require additional external knowledge as well as an understanding of images and questions. Recent studies on KVQA inject an external knowledge in a multi-modal form, and as more knowledge is used, irrelevant information may be added and can confuse the question answering. In order to properly use the knowledge, this study proposes the following: 1) we introduce a novel semantic inconsistency measure computed from caption uncertainty and semantic similarity; 2) we suggest a new external knowledge assimilation method based on the semantic inconsistency measure and apply it to integrate explicit knowledge and implicit knowledge for KVQA; 3) the proposed method is evaluated with the OK-VQA dataset and achieves the state-of-the-art performance.

Long video understanding has emerged as an increasingly important yet challenging task in computer vision. Agent-based approaches are gaining popularity for processing long videos, as they can handle extended sequences and integrate various tools to capture fine-grained information. However, existing methods still face several challenges: (1) they often rely solely on the reasoning ability of large language models (LLMs) without dedicated mechanisms to enhance reasoning in long video scenarios; and (2) they remain vulnerable to errors or noise from external tools. To address these issues, we propose a specialized chain-of-thought (CoT) process tailored for long video analysis. Our proposed CoT with plan-adjust mode enables the LLM to incrementally plan and adapt its information-gathering strategy. We further incorporate heuristic uncertainty estimation of both the LLM and external tools to guide the CoT process. This allows the LLM to assess the reliability of newly collected information, refine its collection strategy, and make more robust decisions when synthesizing final answers. Empirical experiments show that our uncertainty-aware CoT effectively mitigates noise from external tools, leading to more reliable outputs. We implement our approach in a system called VideoAgent2, which also includes additional modules such as general context acquisition and specialized tool design. Evaluation on three dedicated long video benchmarks (and their subsets) demonstrates that VideoAgent2 outperforms the previous state-of-the-art agent-based method, VideoAgent, by an average of 13.1% and achieves leading performance among all zero-shot approaches

Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) improves correctness of Question Answering (QA) and addresses hallucinations in Large Language Models (LLMs), yet greatly increase computational costs. Besides, RAG is not always needed as may introduce irrelevant information. Recent adaptive retrieval methods integrate LLMs' intrinsic knowledge with external information appealing to LLM self-knowledge, but they often neglect efficiency evaluations and comparisons with uncertainty estimation techniques. We bridge this gap by conducting a comprehensive analysis of 35 adaptive retrieval methods, including 8 recent approaches and 27 uncertainty estimation techniques, across 6 datasets using 10 metrics for QA performance, self-knowledge, and efficiency. Our findings show that uncertainty estimation techniques often outperform complex pipelines in terms of efficiency and self-knowledge, while maintaining comparable QA performance.

Large language models (LLMs) are notorious for hallucinating, i.e., producing erroneous claims in their output. Such hallucinations can be dangerous, as occasional factual inaccuracies in the generated text might be obscured by the rest of the output being generally factual, making it extremely hard for the users to spot them. Current services that leverage LLMs usually do not provide any means for detecting unreliable generations. Here, we aim to bridge this gap. In particular, we propose a novel fact-checking and hallucination detection pipeline based on token-level uncertainty quantification. Uncertainty scores leverage information encapsulated in the output of a neural network or its layers to detect unreliable predictions, and we show that they can be used to fact-check the atomic claims in the LLM output. Moreover, we present a novel token-level uncertainty quantification method that removes the impact of uncertainty about what claim to generate on the current step and what surface form to use. Our method Claim Conditioned Probability (CCP) measures only the uncertainty of particular claim value expressed by the model. Experiments on the task of biography generation demonstrate strong improvements for CCP compared to the baselines for six different LLMs and three languages. Human evaluation reveals that the fact-checking pipeline based on uncertainty quantification is competitive with a fact-checking tool that leverages external knowledge.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation equips large language models with the capability to retrieve external knowledge, thereby mitigating hallucinations by incorporating information beyond the model's intrinsic abilities. However, most prior works have focused on invoking retrieval deterministically, which makes it unsuitable for tasks such as long-form question answering. Instead, dynamically performing retrieval by invoking it only when the underlying LLM lacks the required knowledge can be more efficient. In this context, we delve deeper into the question, "To Retrieve or Not to Retrieve?" by exploring multiple uncertainty detection methods. We evaluate these methods for the task of long-form question answering, employing dynamic retrieval, and present our comparisons. Our findings suggest that uncertainty detection metrics, such as Degree Matrix Jaccard and Eccentricity, can reduce the number of retrieval calls by almost half, with only a slight reduction in question-answering accuracy.

Background. Fully automatic analysis of myocardial perfusion MRI datasets enables rapid and objective reporting of stress/rest studies in patients with suspected ischemic heart disease. Developing deep learning techniques that can analyze multi-center datasets despite limited training data and variations in software and hardware is an ongoing challenge. Methods. Datasets from 3 medical centers acquired at 3T (n = 150 subjects) were included: an internal dataset (inD; n = 95) and two external datasets (exDs; n = 55) used for evaluating the robustness of the trained deep neural network (DNN) models against differences in pulse sequence (exD-1) and scanner vendor (exD-2). A subset of inD (n = 85) was used for training/validation of a pool of DNNs for segmentation, all using the same spatiotemporal U-Net architecture and hyperparameters but with different parameter initializations. We employed a space-time sliding-patch analysis approach that automatically yields a pixel-wise "uncertainty map" as a byproduct of the segmentation process. In our approach, a given test case is segmented by all members of the DNN pool and the resulting uncertainty maps are leveraged to automatically select the "best" one among the pool of solutions. Results. The proposed DAUGS analysis approach performed similarly to the established approach on the internal dataset (p = n.s.) whereas it significantly outperformed on the external datasets (p < 0.005 for exD-1 and exD-2). Moreover, the number of image series with "failed" segmentation was significantly lower for the proposed vs. the established approach (4.3% vs. 17.1%, p < 0.0005). Conclusions. The proposed DAUGS analysis approach has the potential to improve the robustness of deep learning methods for segmentation of multi-center stress perfusion datasets with variations in the choice of pulse sequence, site location or scanner vendor.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are known to hallucinate, whereby they generate plausible but inaccurate text. This phenomenon poses significant risks in critical applications, such as medicine or law, necessitating robust hallucination mitigation strategies. While recent works have proposed fine-tuning methods to teach LLMs to abstain from answering questions beyond their knowledge or capabilities, these methods rely on the existence of ground-truth labels or are limited to short-form responses. To address these limitations, we propose fine-tuning using semantic entropy, an uncertainty measure derived from introspection into the model which does not require external labels. We demonstrate that our approach matches or outperforms models fine-tuned using prior work and achieves strong performance for both short and long-form generations on a range of datasets.

We introduce FailureSensorIQ, a novel Multi-Choice Question-Answering (MCQA) benchmarking system designed to assess the ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to reason and understand complex, domain-specific scenarios in Industry 4.0. Unlike traditional QA benchmarks, our system focuses on multiple aspects of reasoning through failure modes, sensor data, and the relationships between them across various industrial assets. Through this work, we envision a paradigm shift where modeling decisions are not only data-driven using statistical tools like correlation analysis and significance tests, but also domain-driven by specialized LLMs which can reason about the key contributors and useful patterns that can be captured with feature engineering. We evaluate the Industrial knowledge of over a dozen LLMs-including GPT-4, Llama, and Mistral-on FailureSensorIQ from different lens using Perturbation-Uncertainty-Complexity analysis, Expert Evaluation study, Asset-Specific Knowledge Gap analysis, ReAct agent using external knowledge-bases. Even though closed-source models with strong reasoning capabilities approach expert-level performance, the comprehensive benchmark reveals a significant drop in performance that is fragile to perturbations, distractions, and inherent knowledge gaps in the models. We also provide a real-world case study of how LLMs can drive the modeling decisions on 3 different failure prediction datasets related to various assets. We release: (a) expert-curated MCQA for various industrial assets, (b) FailureSensorIQ benchmark and Hugging Face leaderboard based on MCQA built from non-textual data found in ISO documents, and (c) LLMFeatureSelector, an LLM-based feature selection scikit-learn pipeline. The software is available at https://github.com/IBM/FailureSensorIQ.

Epistemic Uncertainty is a measure of the lack of knowledge of a learner which diminishes with more evidence. While existing work focuses on using the variance of the Bayesian posterior due to parameter uncertainty as a measure of epistemic uncertainty, we argue that this does not capture the part of lack of knowledge induced by model misspecification. We discuss how the excess risk, which is the gap between the generalization error of a predictor and the Bayes predictor, is a sound measure of epistemic uncertainty which captures the effect of model misspecification. We thus propose a principled framework for directly estimating the excess risk by learning a secondary predictor for the generalization error and subtracting an estimate of aleatoric uncertainty, i.e., intrinsic unpredictability. We discuss the merits of this novel measure of epistemic uncertainty, and highlight how it differs from variance-based measures of epistemic uncertainty and addresses its major pitfall. Our framework, Direct Epistemic Uncertainty Prediction (DEUP) is particularly interesting in interactive learning environments, where the learner is allowed to acquire novel examples in each round. Through a wide set of experiments, we illustrate how existing methods in sequential model optimization can be improved with epistemic uncertainty estimates from DEUP, and how DEUP can be used to drive exploration in reinforcement learning. We also evaluate the quality of uncertainty estimates from DEUP for probabilistic image classification and predicting synergies of drug combinations.

Generating realistic 3D scenes is challenging due to the complexity of room layouts and object geometries.We propose a sketch based knowledge enhanced diffusion architecture (SEK) for generating customized, diverse, and plausible 3D scenes. SEK conditions the denoising process with a hand-drawn sketch of the target scene and cues from an object relationship knowledge base. We first construct an external knowledge base containing object relationships and then leverage knowledge enhanced graph reasoning to assist our model in understanding hand-drawn sketches. A scene is represented as a combination of 3D objects and their relationships, and then incrementally diffused to reach a Gaussian distribution.We propose a 3D denoising scene transformer that learns to reverse the diffusion process, conditioned by a hand-drawn sketch along with knowledge cues, to regressively generate the scene including the 3D object instances as well as their layout. Experiments on the 3D-FRONT dataset show that our model improves FID, CKL by 17.41%, 37.18% in 3D scene generation and FID, KID by 19.12%, 20.06% in 3D scene completion compared to the nearest competitor DiffuScene.

One of the key issues in Mandarin Chinese text-to-speech (TTS) systems is polyphone disambiguation when doing grapheme-to-phoneme (G2P) conversion. In this paper, we introduce a novel method to solve the problem as a generation task. Following the trending research of large language models (LLM) and prompt learning, the proposed method consists of three modules. Retrieval module incorporates external knowledge which is a multi-level semantic dictionary of Chinese polyphonic characters to format the sentence into a prompt. Generation module adopts the decoder-only Transformer architecture to induce the target text. Postprocess module corrects the generated text into a valid result if needed. Experimental results show that our method outperforms the existing methods on a public dataset called CPP. We also empirically study the impacts of different templates of the prompt, different sizes of training data, and whether to incorporate external knowledge.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have become an integral part of our daily lives. However, they impose certain risks, including those that can harm individuals' privacy, perpetuate biases and spread misinformation. These risks highlight the need for robust safety mechanisms, ethical guidelines, and thorough testing to ensure their responsible deployment. Safety of LLMs is a key property that needs to be thoroughly tested prior the model to be deployed and accessible to the general users. This paper reports the external safety testing experience conducted by researchers from Mondragon University and University of Seville on OpenAI's new o3-mini LLM as part of OpenAI's early access for safety testing program. In particular, we apply our tool, ASTRAL, to automatically and systematically generate up to date unsafe test inputs (i.e., prompts) that helps us test and assess different safety categories of LLMs. We automatically generate and execute a total of 10,080 unsafe test input on a early o3-mini beta version. After manually verifying the test cases classified as unsafe by ASTRAL, we identify a total of 87 actual instances of unsafe LLM behavior. We highlight key insights and findings uncovered during the pre-deployment external testing phase of OpenAI's latest LLM.

With the rapid advancement of post-training techniques for reasoning and information seeking, large language models (LLMs) can incorporate a large quantity of retrieved knowledge to solve complex tasks. However, the limited context window of LLMs obstructs scaling the amount of external knowledge input, prohibiting further improvement, especially for tasks requiring significant amount of external knowledge. Existing context window extension methods inevitably cause information loss. LLM-based multi-agent methods emerge as a new paradigm to handle massive input in a distributional manner, where we identify two core bottlenecks in existing knowledge synchronization and reasoning processes. In this work, we develop a multi-agent framework, ExtAgents, to overcome the bottlenecks and enable better scalability in inference-time knowledge integration without longer-context training. Benchmarked with our enhanced multi-hop question answering test, $boldsymbol{inftyBench+}, and other public test sets including long survey generation, ExtAgents significantly enhances the performance over existing non-training methods with the same amount of external knowledge input, regardless of whether it falls within or exceeds the context window$. Moreover, the method maintains high efficiency due to high parallelism. Further study in the coordination of LLM agents on increasing external knowledge input could benefit real-world applications.

Open-domain code generation aims to generate code in a general-purpose programming language (such as Python) from natural language (NL) intents. Motivated by the intuition that developers usually retrieve resources on the web when writing code, we explore the effectiveness of incorporating two varieties of external knowledge into NL-to-code generation: automatically mined NL-code pairs from the online programming QA forum StackOverflow and programming language API documentation. Our evaluations show that combining the two sources with data augmentation and retrieval-based data re-sampling improves the current state-of-the-art by up to 2.2% absolute BLEU score on the code generation testbed CoNaLa. The code and resources are available at https://github.com/neulab/external-knowledge-codegen.

In breast cancer imaging, there has been a trend to directly predict pathological complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) from histological images based on deep learning (DL). However, it has been a commonly known problem that the constructed DL-based models numerically have better performances in internal validation than in external validation. The primary reason for this situation lies in that the distribution of the external data for validation is different from the distribution of the training data for the construction of the predictive model. In this paper, we aim to alleviate this situation with a more intrinsic approach. We propose an experts' cognition-driven ensemble deep learning (ECDEDL) approach for external validation of predicting pCR to NAC from histological images in breast cancer. The proposed ECDEDL, which takes the cognition of both pathology and artificial intelligence experts into consideration to improve the generalization of the predictive model to the external validation, more intrinsically approximates the working paradigm of a human being which will refer to his various working experiences to make decisions. The proposed ECDEDL approach was validated with 695 WSIs collected from the same center as the primary dataset to develop the predictive model and perform the internal validation, and 340 WSIs collected from other three centers as the external dataset to perform the external validation. In external validation, the proposed ECDEDL approach improves the AUCs of pCR prediction from 61.52(59.80-63.26) to 67.75(66.74-68.80) and the Accuracies of pCR prediction from 56.09(49.39-62.79) to 71.01(69.44-72.58). The proposed ECDEDL was quite effective for external validation, numerically more approximating the internal validation.

Despite improvements to the generalization performance of automated speech recognition (ASR) models, specializing ASR models for downstream tasks remains a challenging task, primarily due to reduced data availability (necessitating increased data collection), and rapidly shifting data distributions (requiring more frequent model fine-tuning). In this work, we investigate the potential of leveraging external knowledge, particularly through off-policy key-value stores generated with text-to-speech methods, to allow for flexible post-training adaptation to new data distributions. In our approach, audio embeddings captured from text-to-speech, along with semantic text embeddings, are used to bias ASR via an approximate k-nearest-neighbor (KNN) based attentive fusion step. Our experiments on LibiriSpeech and in-house voice assistant/search datasets show that the proposed approach can reduce domain adaptation time by up to 1K GPU-hours while providing up to 3% WER improvement compared to a fine-tuning baseline, suggesting a promising approach for adapting production ASR systems in challenging zero and few-shot scenarios.

Although recent inpainting approaches have demonstrated significant improvements with deep neural networks, they still suffer from artifacts such as blunt structures and abrupt colors when filling in the missing regions. To address these issues, we propose an external-internal inpainting scheme with a monochromic bottleneck that helps image inpainting models remove these artifacts. In the external learning stage, we reconstruct missing structures and details in the monochromic space to reduce the learning dimension. In the internal learning stage, we propose a novel internal color propagation method with progressive learning strategies for consistent color restoration. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our proposed scheme helps image inpainting models produce more structure-preserved and visually compelling results.

Training large language models (LLMs) for complex reasoning via Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) is effective but limited by reliance on costly, domain-specific supervision. We explore Reinforcement Learning from Internal Feedback (RLIF), a framework that enables LLMs to learn from intrinsic signals without external rewards or labeled data. We propose Intuitor, an RLIF method that uses a model's own confidence, termed self-certainty, as its sole reward signal. Intuitor replaces external rewards in Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) with self-certainty scores, enabling fully unsupervised learning. Experiments demonstrate that Intuitor matches GRPO's performance on mathematical benchmarks while achieving superior generalization to out-of-domain tasks like code generation, without requiring gold solutions or test cases. Our findings show that intrinsic model signals can drive effective learning across domains, offering a scalable alternative to RLVR for autonomous AI systems where verifiable rewards are unavailable. Code is available at https://github.com/sunblaze-ucb/Intuitor

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) are increasingly deployed in fine-tuning-as-a-service (FTaaS) settings, where user-submitted datasets adapt general-purpose models to downstream tasks. This flexibility, however, introduces serious security risks, as malicious fine-tuning can implant backdoors into MLLMs with minimal effort. In this paper, we observe that backdoor triggers systematically disrupt cross-modal processing by causing abnormal attention concentration on non-semantic regions--a phenomenon we term attention collapse. Based on this insight, we propose Believe Your Eyes (BYE), a data filtering framework that leverages attention entropy patterns as self-supervised signals to identify and filter backdoor samples. BYE operates via a three-stage pipeline: (1) extracting attention maps using the fine-tuned model, (2) computing entropy scores and profiling sensitive layers via bimodal separation, and (3) performing unsupervised clustering to remove suspicious samples. Unlike prior defenses, BYE equires no clean supervision, auxiliary labels, or model modifications. Extensive experiments across various datasets, models, and diverse trigger types validate BYE's effectiveness: it achieves near-zero attack success rates while maintaining clean-task performance, offering a robust and generalizable solution against backdoor threats in MLLMs.

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) is a common strategy to reduce hallucinations in Large Language Models (LLMs). While reinforcement learning (RL) can enable LLMs to act as search agents by activating retrieval capabilities, existing ones often underutilize their internal knowledge. This can lead to redundant retrievals, potential harmful knowledge conflicts, and increased inference latency. To address these limitations, an efficient and adaptive search agent capable of discerning optimal retrieval timing and synergistically integrating parametric (internal) and retrieved (external) knowledge is in urgent need. This paper introduces the Reinforced Internal-External Knowledge Synergistic Reasoning Agent (IKEA), which could indentify its own knowledge boundary and prioritize the utilization of internal knowledge, resorting to external search only when internal knowledge is deemed insufficient. This is achieved using a novel knowledge-boundary aware reward function and a knowledge-boundary aware training dataset. These are designed for internal-external knowledge synergy oriented RL, incentivizing the model to deliver accurate answers, minimize unnecessary retrievals, and encourage appropriate external searches when its own knowledge is lacking. Evaluations across multiple knowledge reasoning tasks demonstrate that IKEA significantly outperforms baseline methods, reduces retrieval frequency significantly, and exhibits robust generalization capabilities.

Recent advancements in large reasoning models (LRMs) have demonstrated the effectiveness of scaling test-time computation to enhance reasoning capabilities in multiple tasks. However, LRMs typically suffer from "overthinking" problems, where models generate significantly redundant reasoning steps while bringing limited performance gains. Existing work relies on fine-tuning to mitigate overthinking, which requires additional data, unconventional training setups, risky safety misalignment, and poor generalization. Through empirical analysis, we reveal an important characteristic of LRM behaviors that placing external CoTs generated by smaller models between the thinking token (<think> and </think>) can effectively manipulate the model to generate fewer thoughts. Building on these insights, we propose a simple yet efficient pipeline, ThoughtMani, to enable LRMs to bypass unnecessary intermediate steps and reduce computational costs significantly. We conduct extensive experiments to validate the utility and efficiency of ThoughtMani. For instance, when applied to QwQ-32B on the LiveBench/Code dataset, ThoughtMani keeps the original performance and reduces output token counts by approximately 30%, with little overhead from the CoT generator. Furthermore, we find that ThoughtMani enhances safety alignment by an average of 10%. Since model vendors typically serve models of different sizes simultaneously, ThoughtMani provides an effective way to construct more efficient and accessible LRMs for real-world applications.

In-context learning (ICL) is the ability of a model to learn a new task by observing a few exemplars in its context. While prevalent in NLP, this capability has recently also been observed in Reinforcement Learning (RL) settings. Prior in-context RL methods, however, require entire episodes in the agent's context. Given that complex environments typically lead to long episodes with sparse rewards, these methods are constrained to simple environments with short episodes. To address these challenges, we introduce Retrieval-Augmented Decision Transformer (RA-DT). RA-DT employs an external memory mechanism to store past experiences from which it retrieves only sub-trajectories relevant for the current situation. The retrieval component in RA-DT does not require training and can be entirely domain-agnostic. We evaluate the capabilities of RA-DT on grid-world environments, robotics simulations, and procedurally-generated video games. On grid-worlds, RA-DT outperforms baselines, while using only a fraction of their context length. Furthermore, we illuminate the limitations of current in-context RL methods on complex environments and discuss future directions. To facilitate future research, we release datasets for four of the considered environments.

Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) is a widely used approach for leveraging external context in several natural language applications such as question answering and information retrieval. Yet, the exact nature in which a Language Model (LM) leverages this non-parametric memory or retrieved context isn't clearly understood. This paper mechanistically examines the RAG pipeline to highlight that LMs demonstrate a "shortcut'' effect and have a strong bias towards utilizing the retrieved context to answer questions, while relying minimally on model priors. We propose (a) Causal Mediation Analysis; for proving that parametric memory is minimally utilized when answering a question and (b) Attention Contributions and Knockouts for showing the last token residual stream do not get enriched from the subject token in the question, but gets enriched from tokens of RAG-context. We find this pronounced "shortcut'' behaviour to be true across both LLMs (e.g.,LlaMa) and SLMs (e.g., Phi)

Large language models (LLMs) augmented with external data have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in completing real-world tasks. Techniques for integrating external data into LLMs, such as Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) and fine-tuning, are gaining increasing attention and widespread application. Nonetheless, the effective deployment of data-augmented LLMs across various specialized fields presents substantial challenges. These challenges encompass a wide range of issues, from retrieving relevant data and accurately interpreting user intent to fully harnessing the reasoning capabilities of LLMs for complex tasks. We believe that there is no one-size-fits-all solution for data-augmented LLM applications. In practice, underperformance often arises from a failure to correctly identify the core focus of a task or because the task inherently requires a blend of multiple capabilities that must be disentangled for better resolution. In this survey, we propose a RAG task categorization method, classifying user queries into four levels based on the type of external data required and primary focus of the task: explicit fact queries, implicit fact queries, interpretable rationale queries, and hidden rationale queries. We define these levels of queries, provide relevant datasets, and summarize the key challenges and most effective techniques for addressing these challenges. Finally, we discuss three main forms of integrating external data into LLMs: context, small model, and fine-tuning, highlighting their respective strengths, limitations, and the types of problems they are suited to solve. This work aims to help readers thoroughly understand and decompose the data requirements and key bottlenecks in building LLM applications, offering solutions to the different challenges and serving as a guide to systematically developing such applications.

We investigate the impacts of NLP research published in top-tier conferences (i.e., ACL, EMNLP, and NAACL) from 1979 to 2024. By analyzing citations from research articles and external sources such as patents, media, and policy documents, we examine how different NLP topics are consumed both within the academic community and by the broader public. Our findings reveal that language modeling has the widest internal and external influence, while linguistic foundations have lower impacts. We also observe that internal and external impacts generally align, but topics like ethics, bias, and fairness show significant attention in policy documents with much fewer academic citations. Additionally, external domains exhibit distinct preferences, with patents focusing on practical NLP applications and media and policy documents engaging more with the societal implications of NLP models.

While large language models perform well on a range of complex tasks (e.g., text generation, question answering, summarization), robust multi-step planning and reasoning remains a considerable challenge for them. In this paper we show that search-based planning can significantly improve LLMs' playing strength across several board games (Chess, Fischer Random / Chess960, Connect Four, and Hex). We introduce, compare and contrast two major approaches: In external search, the model guides Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) rollouts and evaluations without calls to an external engine, and in internal search, the model directly generates in-context a linearized tree of potential futures and a resulting final choice. Both build on a language model pre-trained on relevant domain knowledge, capturing the transition and value functions across these games. We find that our pre-training method minimizes hallucinations, as our model is highly accurate regarding state prediction and legal moves. Additionally, both internal and external search indeed improve win-rates against state-of-the-art bots, even reaching Grandmaster-level performance in chess while operating on a similar move count search budget per decision as human Grandmasters. The way we combine search with domain knowledge is not specific to board games, suggesting direct extensions into more general language model inference and training techniques.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are often augmented with external information as contexts, but this external information can sometimes be inaccurate or even intentionally misleading. We argue that robust LLMs should demonstrate situated faithfulness, dynamically calibrating their trust in external information based on their confidence in the internal knowledge and the external context. To benchmark this capability, we evaluate LLMs across several QA datasets, including a newly created dataset called RedditQA featuring in-the-wild incorrect contexts sourced from Reddit posts. We show that when provided with both correct and incorrect contexts, both open-source and proprietary models tend to overly rely on external information, regardless of its factual accuracy. To enhance situated faithfulness, we propose two approaches: Self-Guided Confidence Reasoning (SCR) and Rule-Based Confidence Reasoning (RCR). SCR enables models to self-access the confidence of external information relative to their own internal knowledge to produce the most accurate answer. RCR, in contrast, extracts explicit confidence signals from the LLM and determines the final answer using predefined rules. Our results show that for LLMs with strong reasoning capabilities, such as GPT-4o and GPT-4o mini, SCR outperforms RCR, achieving improvements of up to 24.2% over a direct input augmentation baseline. Conversely, for a smaller model like Llama-3-8B, RCR outperforms SCR. Fine-tuning SCR with our proposed Confidence Reasoning Direct Preference Optimization (CR-DPO) method improves performance on both seen and unseen datasets, yielding an average improvement of 8.9% on Llama-3-8B. In addition to quantitative results, we offer insights into the relative strengths of SCR and RCR. Our findings highlight promising avenues for improving situated faithfulness in LLMs. The data and code are released.

Through the integration of external tools, large language models (LLMs) such as GPT-4o and Llama 3.1 significantly expand their functional capabilities, evolving from elementary conversational agents to general-purpose assistants. We argue that the primary drivers of these advancements are the quality and diversity of the training data. However, the existing LLMs with external tool integration provide only limited transparency regarding their datasets and data collection methods, which has led to the initiation of this research. Specifically, in this paper, our objective is to elucidate the detailed process involved in constructing datasets that empower LLMs to effectively learn how to utilize external tools and make this information available to the public through the introduction of ToolBridge. ToolBridge proposes to employ a collection of general open-access datasets as its raw dataset pool and applies a series of strategies to identify appropriate data entries from the pool for external tool API insertions. By supervised fine-tuning on these curated data entries, LLMs can invoke external tools in appropriate contexts to boost their predictive accuracy, particularly for basic functions including data processing, numerical computation, and factual retrieval. Our experiments rigorously isolates model architectures and training configurations, focusing exclusively on the role of data. The experimental results indicate that LLMs trained on ToolBridge demonstrate consistent performance improvements on both standard benchmarks and custom evaluation datasets. All the associated code and data will be open-source at https://github.com/CharlesPikachu/ToolBridge, promoting transparency and facilitating the broader community to explore approaches for equipping LLMs with external tools capabilities.

When the world changes, so does the text that humans write about it. How do we build language models that can be easily updated to reflect these changes? One popular approach is retrieval-augmented generation, in which new documents are inserted into a knowledge base and retrieved during prediction for downstream tasks. Most prior work on these systems have focused on improving behavior during prediction through better retrieval or reasoning. This paper introduces ERASE, which instead improves model behavior when new documents are acquired, by incrementally deleting or rewriting other entries in the knowledge base each time a document is added. In two new benchmark datasets evaluating models' ability to answer questions about a stream of news articles or conversations, ERASE improves accuracy relative to conventional retrieval-augmented generation by 7-13% (Mixtral-8x7B) and 6-10% (Llama-3-8B) absolute. Code and data are available at https://github.com/belindal/ERASE

Pre-trained language models (PLMs) show impressive performance in various downstream NLP tasks. However, pre-training large language models demands substantial memory and training compute. Furthermore, due to the substantial resources required, many PLM weights are confidential. Consequently, users are compelled to share their data with model owners for fine-tuning specific tasks. To overcome the limitations, we introduce Plug-in External Memory Adaptation (PEMA), a Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) method, enabling PLM fine-tuning without requiring access to all the weights. PEMA integrates with context representations from test data during inference to perform downstream tasks. It uses external memory to store PLM-generated context representations mapped with target tokens. Our method utilizes weight matrices of LoRA-like bottlenecked adapter in the PLM's final layer to enhance efficiency. Our approach also includes Gradual Unrolling, a novel interpolation strategy to improve generation quality. We validate PEMA's effectiveness through experiments on syntactic and real datasets for machine translation and style transfer. Our findings show that PEMA outperforms other PEFT approaches in memory and latency efficiency for training, and also excels in maintaining sentence meaning and generating appropriate language and styles.

Lip-reading is the operation of recognizing speech from lip movements. This is a difficult task because the movements of the lips when pronouncing the words are similar for some of them. Viseme is used to describe lip movements during a conversation. This paper aims to show how to use external text data (for viseme-to-character mapping) by dividing video-to-character into two stages, namely converting video to viseme, and then converting viseme to character by using separate models. Our proposed method improves word error rate by 4\% compared to the normal sequence to sequence lip-reading model on the BBC-Oxford Lip Reading Sentences 2 (LRS2) dataset.

Reliable estimation of predictive uncertainty is crucial for machine learning applications, particularly in high-stakes scenarios where hedging against risks is essential. Despite its significance, there is no universal agreement on how to best quantify predictive uncertainty. In this work, we revisit core concepts to propose a framework for information-theoretic measures of predictive uncertainty. Our proposed framework categorizes predictive uncertainty measures according to two factors: (I) The predicting model (II) The approximation of the true predictive distribution. Examining all possible combinations of these two factors, we derive a set of predictive uncertainty measures that includes both known and newly introduced ones. We extensively evaluate these measures across a broad set of tasks, identifying conditions under which certain measures excel. Our findings show the importance of aligning the choice of uncertainty measure with the predicting model on in-distribution (ID) data, the limitations of epistemic uncertainty measures for out-of-distribution (OOD) data, and that the disentanglement between measures varies substantially between ID and OOD data. Together, these insights provide a more comprehensive understanding of predictive uncertainty measures, revealing their implicit assumptions and relationships.

Recent studies have shown LLMs possess some ability to improve their responses when given external feedback. However, it remains unclear how effectively and thoroughly these models can incorporate extrinsic feedback. In an ideal scenario, if LLMs receive near-perfect and complete feedback, we would expect them to fully integrate the feedback and change their incorrect answers to correct ones. In this paper, we systematically investigate LLMs' ability to incorporate feedback by designing a controlled experimental environment. For each problem, a solver model attempts a solution, then a feedback generator with access to near-complete ground-truth answers produces targeted feedback, after which the solver tries again. We evaluate this pipeline across a diverse range of tasks, including math reasoning, knowledge reasoning, scientific reasoning, and general multi-domain evaluations with state-of-the-art language models including Claude 3.7 (with and without extended thinking). Surprisingly, even under these near-ideal conditions, solver models consistently show resistance to feedback, a limitation that we term FEEDBACK FRICTION. To mitigate this limitation, we experiment with sampling-based strategies like progressive temperature increases and explicit rejection of previously attempted incorrect answers, which yield improvements but still fail to help models achieve target performance. We also perform a rigorous exploration of potential causes of FEEDBACK FRICTION, ruling out factors such as model overconfidence and data familiarity. We hope that highlighting this issue in LLMs and ruling out several apparent causes will help future research in self-improvement.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as an effective method for training reasoning models. However, existing RL approaches typically bias the model's output distribution toward reward-maximizing paths without introducing external knowledge. This limits their exploration capacity and results in a narrower reasoning capability boundary compared to base models. To address this limitation, we propose TAPO (Thought-Augmented Policy Optimization), a novel framework that augments RL by incorporating external high-level guidance ("thought patterns"). By adaptively integrating structured thoughts during training, TAPO effectively balances model-internal exploration and external guidance exploitation. Extensive experiments show that our approach significantly outperforms GRPO by 99% on AIME, 41% on AMC, and 17% on Minerva Math. Notably, these high-level thought patterns, abstracted from only 500 prior samples, generalize effectively across various tasks and models. This highlights TAPO's potential for broader applications across multiple tasks and domains. Our further analysis reveals that introducing external guidance produces powerful reasoning models with superior explainability of inference behavior and enhanced output readability.

Standard clothing asset generation involves creating forward-facing flat-lay garment images displayed on a clear background by extracting clothing information from diverse real-world contexts, which presents significant challenges due to highly standardized sampling distributions and precise structural requirements in the generated images. Existing models have limited spatial perception and often exhibit structural hallucinations in this high-specification generative task. To address this issue, we propose a novel Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) framework, termed RAGDiffusion, to enhance structure determinacy and mitigate hallucinations by assimilating external knowledge from LLM and databases. RAGDiffusion consists of two core processes: (1) Retrieval-based structure aggregation, which employs contrastive learning and a Structure Locally Linear Embedding (SLLE) to derive global structure and spatial landmarks, providing both soft and hard guidance to counteract structural ambiguities; and (2) Omni-level faithful garment generation, which introduces a three-level alignment that ensures fidelity in structural, pattern, and decoding components within the diffusing. Extensive experiments on challenging real-world datasets demonstrate that RAGDiffusion synthesizes structurally and detail-faithful clothing assets with significant performance improvements, representing a pioneering effort in high-specification faithful generation with RAG to confront intrinsic hallucinations and enhance fidelity.

Although large-scale pre-trained language models (PTLMs) are shown to encode rich knowledge in their model parameters, the inherent knowledge in PTLMs can be opaque or static, making external knowledge necessary. However, the existing information retrieval techniques could be costly and may even introduce noisy and sometimes misleading knowledge. To address these challenges, we propose the instance-level adaptive propulsion of external knowledge (IAPEK), where we only conduct the retrieval when necessary. To achieve this goal, we propose measuring whether a PTLM contains enough knowledge to solve an instance with a novel metric, Thrust, which leverages the representation distribution of a small number of seen instances. Extensive experiments demonstrate that thrust is a good measurement of PTLM models' instance-level knowledgeability. Moreover, we can achieve significantly higher cost-efficiency with the Thrust score as the retrieval indicator than the naive usage of external knowledge on 88% of the evaluated tasks with 26% average performance improvement. Such findings shed light on the real-world practice of knowledge-enhanced LMs with a limited knowledge-seeking budget due to computation latency or costs.

Existing continual learning (CL) methods mainly rely on fine-tuning or adapting large language models (LLMs). They still suffer from catastrophic forgetting (CF). Little work has been done to exploit in-context learning (ICL) to leverage the extensive knowledge within LLMs for CL without updating any parameters. However, incrementally learning each new task in ICL necessitates adding training examples from each class of the task to the prompt, which hampers scalability as the prompt length increases. This issue not only leads to excessively long prompts that exceed the input token limit of the underlying LLM but also degrades the model's performance due to the overextended context. To address this, we introduce InCA, a novel approach that integrates an external continual learner (ECL) with ICL to enable scalable CL without CF. The ECL is built incrementally to pre-select a small subset of likely classes for each test instance. By restricting the ICL prompt to only these selected classes, InCA prevents prompt lengths from becoming excessively long, while maintaining high performance. Experimental results demonstrate that InCA significantly outperforms existing CL baselines, achieving substantial performance gains.

Human-produced emissions are growing at an alarming rate, causing already observable changes in the climate and environment in general. Each year global carbon dioxide emissions hit a new record, and it is reported that 0.5% of total US greenhouse gas emissions are attributed to data centres as of 2021. The release of ChatGPT in late 2022 sparked social interest in Large Language Models (LLMs), the new generation of Language Models with a large number of parameters and trained on massive amounts of data. Currently, numerous companies are releasing products featuring various LLMs, with many more models in development and awaiting release. Deep Learning research is a competitive field, with only models that reach top performance attracting attention and being utilized. Hence, achieving better accuracy and results is often the first priority, while the model's efficiency and the environmental impact of the study are neglected. However, LLMs demand substantial computational resources and are very costly to train, both financially and environmentally. It becomes essential to raise awareness and promote conscious decisions about algorithmic and hardware choices. Providing information on training time, the approximate carbon dioxide emissions and power consumption would assist future studies in making necessary adjustments and determining the compatibility of available computational resources with model requirements. In this study, we infused T5 LLM with external knowledge and fine-tuned the model for Question-Answering task. Furthermore, we calculated and reported the approximate environmental impact for both steps. The findings demonstrate that the smaller models may not always be sustainable options, and increased training does not always imply better performance. The most optimal outcome is achieved by carefully considering both performance and efficiency factors.

Large language models (LLMs)-based image captioning has the capability of describing objects not explicitly observed in training data; yet novel objects occur frequently, necessitating the requirement of sustaining up-to-date object knowledge for open-world comprehension. Instead of relying on large amounts of data and scaling up network parameters, we introduce a highly effective retrieval-augmented image captioning method that prompts LLMs with object names retrieved from External Visual--name memory (EVCap). We build ever-changing object knowledge memory using objects' visuals and names, enabling us to (i) update the memory at a minimal cost and (ii) effortlessly augment LLMs with retrieved object names utilizing a lightweight and fast-to-train model. Our model, which was trained only on the COCO dataset, can be adapted to out-domain data without additional fine-tuning or retraining. Our comprehensive experiments conducted on various benchmarks and synthetic commonsense-violating data demonstrate that EVCap, comprising solely 3.97M trainable parameters, exhibits superior performance compared to other methods of equivalent model size scale. Notably, it achieves competitive performance against specialist SOTAs with an enormous number of parameters. Our code is available at https://jiaxuan-li.github.io/EVCap.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved impressive performance on various reasoning tasks. To further improve the performance, we propose MultiTool-CoT, a novel framework that leverages chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting to incorporate multiple external tools, such as a calculator and a knowledge retriever, during the reasoning process. We apply MultiTool-CoT to the Task 2 dataset of NumGLUE, which requires both numerical reasoning and domain-specific knowledge. The experiments show that our method significantly outperforms strong baselines and achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Nowadays, recognition-synthesis-based methods have been quite popular with voice conversion (VC). By introducing linguistics features with good disentangling characters extracted from an automatic speech recognition (ASR) model, the VC performance achieved considerable breakthroughs. Recently, self-supervised learning (SSL) methods trained with a large-scale unannotated speech corpus have been applied to downstream tasks focusing on the content information, which is suitable for VC tasks. However, a huge amount of speaker information in SSL representations degrades timbre similarity and the quality of converted speech significantly. To address this problem, we proposed a high-similarity any-to-one voice conversion method with the input of SSL representations. We incorporated adversarial training mechanisms in the synthesis module using external unannotated corpora. Two auxiliary discriminators were trained to distinguish whether a sequence of mel-spectrograms has been converted by the acoustic model and whether a sequence of content embeddings contains speaker information from external corpora. Experimental results show that our proposed method achieves comparable similarity and higher naturalness than the supervised method, which needs a huge amount of annotated corpora for training and is applicable to improve similarity for VC methods with other SSL representations as input.

In this paper, we present a novel approach for incorporating external knowledge in Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs). We propose the integration of lexicon features into the self-attention mechanism of RNN-based architectures. This form of conditioning on the attention distribution, enforces the contribution of the most salient words for the task at hand. We introduce three methods, namely attentional concatenation, feature-based gating and affine transformation. Experiments on six benchmark datasets show the effectiveness of our methods. Attentional feature-based gating yields consistent performance improvement across tasks. Our approach is implemented as a simple add-on module for RNN-based models with minimal computational overhead and can be adapted to any deep neural architecture.

We present an approach for agents to learn representations of a global map from sensor data, to aid their exploration in new environments. To achieve this, we embed procedures mimicking that of traditional Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) into the soft attention based addressing of external memory architectures, in which the external memory acts as an internal representation of the environment. This structure encourages the evolution of SLAM-like behaviors inside a completely differentiable deep neural network. We show that this approach can help reinforcement learning agents to successfully explore new environments where long-term memory is essential. We validate our approach in both challenging grid-world environments and preliminary Gazebo experiments. A video of our experiments can be found at: https://goo.gl/G2Vu5y.

Most successful information extraction systems operate with access to a large collection of documents. In this work, we explore the task of acquiring and incorporating external evidence to improve extraction accuracy in domains where the amount of training data is scarce. This process entails issuing search queries, extraction from new sources and reconciliation of extracted values, which are repeated until sufficient evidence is collected. We approach the problem using a reinforcement learning framework where our model learns to select optimal actions based on contextual information. We employ a deep Q-network, trained to optimize a reward function that reflects extraction accuracy while penalizing extra effort. Our experiments on two databases -- of shooting incidents, and food adulteration cases -- demonstrate that our system significantly outperforms traditional extractors and a competitive meta-classifier baseline.

Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) enriches the ability of language models to reason using external context to augment responses for a given user prompt. This approach has risen in popularity due to practical applications in various applications of language models in search, question/answering, and chat-bots. However, the exact nature of how this approach works isn't clearly understood. In this paper, we mechanistically examine the RAG pipeline to highlight that language models take shortcut and have a strong bias towards utilizing only the context information to answer the question, while relying minimally on their parametric memory. We probe this mechanistic behavior in language models with: (i) Causal Mediation Analysis to show that the parametric memory is minimally utilized when answering a question and (ii) Attention Contributions and Knockouts to show that the last token residual stream do not get enriched from the subject token in the question, but gets enriched from other informative tokens in the context. We find this pronounced shortcut behaviour true across both LLaMa and Phi family of models.

Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) have emerged as a promising solution for decomposing large language model representations into interpretable features. However, Paulo and Belrose (2025) have highlighted instability across different initialization seeds, and Heap et al. (2025) have pointed out that SAEs may not capture model-internal features. These problems likely stem from training SAEs on external datasets - either collected from the Web or generated by another model - which may contain out-of-distribution (OOD) data beyond the model's generalisation capabilities. This can result in hallucinated SAE features, which we term "Fake Features", that misrepresent the model's internal activations. To address these issues, we propose FaithfulSAE, a method that trains SAEs on the model's own synthetic dataset. Using FaithfulSAEs, we demonstrate that training SAEs on less-OOD instruction datasets results in SAEs being more stable across seeds. Notably, FaithfulSAEs outperform SAEs trained on web-based datasets in the SAE probing task and exhibit a lower Fake Feature Ratio in 5 out of 7 models. Overall, our approach eliminates the dependency on external datasets, advancing interpretability by better capturing model-internal features while highlighting the often neglected importance of SAE training datasets.

Large Language Models (LLMs), although powerful in general domains, often perform poorly on domain-specific tasks like medical question answering (QA). Moreover, they tend to function as "black-boxes," making it challenging to modify their behavior. Addressing this, our study delves into model editing utilizing in-context learning, aiming to improve LLM responses without the need for fine-tuning or retraining. Specifically, we propose a comprehensive retrieval strategy to extract medical facts from an external knowledge base, and then we incorporate them into the query prompt for the LLM. Focusing on medical QA using the MedQA-SMILE dataset, we evaluate the impact of different retrieval models and the number of facts provided to the LLM. Notably, our edited Vicuna model exhibited an accuracy improvement from 44.46% to 48.54%. This work underscores the potential of model editing to enhance LLM performance, offering a practical approach to mitigate the challenges of black-box LLMs.

Large language models (LLMs), such as ChatGPT, are able to generate human-like, fluent responses for many downstream tasks, e.g., task-oriented dialog and question answering. However, applying LLMs to real-world, mission-critical applications remains challenging mainly due to their tendency to generate hallucinations and their inability to use external knowledge. This paper proposes a LLM-Augmenter system, which augments a black-box LLM with a set of plug-and-play modules. Our system makes the LLM generate responses grounded in external knowledge, e.g., stored in task-specific databases. It also iteratively revises LLM prompts to improve model responses using feedback generated by utility functions, e.g., the factuality score of a LLM-generated response. The effectiveness of LLM-Augmenter is empirically validated on two types of scenarios, task-oriented dialog and open-domain question answering. LLM-Augmenter significantly reduces ChatGPT's hallucinations without sacrificing the fluency and informativeness of its responses. We make the source code and models publicly available.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) improves factual accuracy by grounding responses in external knowledge. However, existing methods typically rely on a single source, either unstructured text or structured knowledge. Moreover, they lack cognitively inspired mechanisms for activating relevant knowledge. To address these issues, we propose KG-Infused RAG, a framework that integrates KGs into RAG systems to implement spreading activation, a cognitive process that enables concept association and inference. KG-Infused RAG retrieves KG facts, expands the query accordingly, and enhances generation by combining corpus passages with structured facts, enabling interpretable, multi-source retrieval grounded in semantic structure. We further improve KG-Infused RAG via preference learning on sampled key stages in the pipeline. Experiments on five QA benchmarks show that KG-Infused RAG consistently outperforms vanilla RAG (by 3.8% to 13.8%). Additionally, when integrated into Self-RAG, KG-Infused RAG brings further performance gains, demonstrating its effectiveness and versatility as a plug-and-play enhancement module for corpus-based RAG methods.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has demonstrated significant potential in ECG analysis and cardiovascular disease assessment. Recently, foundation models have played a remarkable role in advancing medical AI. The development of an ECG foundation model holds the promise of elevating AI-ECG research to new heights. However, building such a model faces several challenges, including insufficient database sample sizes and inadequate generalization across multiple domains. Additionally, there is a notable performance gap between single-lead and multi-lead ECG analyses. We introduced an ECG Foundation Model (ECGFounder), a general-purpose model that leverages real-world ECG annotations from cardiology experts to broaden the diagnostic capabilities of ECG analysis. ECGFounder was trained on over 10 million ECGs with 150 label categories from the Harvard-Emory ECG Database, enabling comprehensive cardiovascular disease diagnosis through ECG analysis. The model is designed to be both an effective out-of-the-box solution, and a to be fine-tunable for downstream tasks, maximizing usability. Importantly, we extended its application to lower rank ECGs, and arbitrary single-lead ECGs in particular. ECGFounder is applicable to supporting various downstream tasks in mobile monitoring scenarios. Experimental results demonstrate that ECGFounder achieves expert-level performance on internal validation sets, with AUROC exceeding 0.95 for eighty diagnoses. It also shows strong classification performance and generalization across various diagnoses on external validation sets. When fine-tuned, ECGFounder outperforms baseline models in demographic analysis, clinical event detection, and cross-modality cardiac rhythm diagnosis. The trained model and data will be publicly released upon publication through the bdsp.io. Our code is available at https://github.com/bdsp-core/ECGFounder

Machine Learning (ML) has the potential to revolutionise the field of automotive aerodynamics, enabling split-second flow predictions early in the design process. However, the lack of open-source training data for realistic road cars, using high-fidelity CFD methods, represents a barrier to their development. To address this, a high-fidelity open-source (CC-BY-SA) public dataset for automotive aerodynamics has been generated, based on 500 parametrically morphed variants of the widely-used DrivAer notchback generic vehicle. Mesh generation and scale-resolving CFD was executed using consistent and validated automatic workflows representative of the industrial state-of-the-art. Geometries and rich aerodynamic data are published in open-source formats. To our knowledge, this is the first large, public-domain dataset for complex automotive configurations generated using high-fidelity CFD.

The advent of large language models (LLMs) has showcased their efficacy across various domains, yet they often hallucinate, especially in knowledge-intensive tasks that require external knowledge sources. To improve factual accuracy of language models, retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) has emerged as a popular solution. However, traditional retrieval modules often rely on large-scale document indexes, which can be disconnected from generative tasks. Through generative retrieval (GR) approach, language models can achieve superior retrieval performance by directly generating relevant document identifiers (DocIDs). However, the relationship between GR and downstream tasks, as well as the potential of LLMs in GR, remains unexplored. In this paper, we present a unified language model that utilizes external corpus to handle various knowledge-intensive tasks by seamlessly integrating generative retrieval, closed-book generation, and RAG. In order to achieve effective retrieval and generation through a unified continuous decoding process, we introduce the following mechanisms: (1) a ranking-oriented DocID decoding strategy, which improves ranking ability by directly learning from a DocID ranking list; (2) a continuous generation strategy to facilitate effective and efficient RAG; (3) well-designed auxiliary DocID understanding tasks to enhance the model's comprehension of DocIDs and their relevance to downstream tasks. Our approach is evaluated on the widely used KILT benchmark using two variants of backbone models: an encoder-decoder T5 model and a decoder-only LLM, Llama2. Experimental results showcase the superior performance of our models in both retrieval and downstream knowledge-intensive tasks.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown the potential to revolutionize natural language processing tasks in various domains, sparking great interest in vertical-specific large models. However, unlike proprietary models such as BloombergGPT and FinGPT, which have leveraged their unique data accumulations to make strides in the finance domain, there hasn't not many similar large language models in the Chinese legal domain to facilitate its digital transformation. In this paper, we propose an open-source legal large language model named ChatLaw. Due to the importance of data quality, we carefully designed a legal domain fine-tuning dataset. Additionally, to overcome the problem of model hallucinations in legal data screening during reference data retrieval, we introduce a method that combines vector database retrieval with keyword retrieval to effectively reduce the inaccuracy of relying solely on vector database retrieval. Furthermore, we propose a self-attention method to enhance the ability of large models to overcome errors present in reference data, further optimizing the issue of model hallucinations at the model level and improving the problem-solving capabilities of large models. We also open-sourced our model and part of the data at https://github.com/PKU-YuanGroup/ChatLaw.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance in various NLP tasks, but they still suffer from challenges such as hallucination and weak numerical reasoning. To overcome these challenges, external tools can be used to enhance LLMs' question-answering abilities. However, current evaluation methods do not distinguish between questions that can be answered using LLMs' internal knowledge and those that require external information through tool use. To address this issue, we introduce a new dataset called ToolQA, which is designed to faithfully evaluate LLMs' ability to use external tools for question answering. Our development of ToolQA involved a scalable, automated process for dataset curation, along with 13 specialized tools designed for interaction with external knowledge in order to answer questions. Importantly, we strive to minimize the overlap between our benchmark data and LLMs' pre-training data, enabling a more precise evaluation of LLMs' tool-use reasoning abilities. We conducted an in-depth diagnosis of existing tool-use LLMs to highlight their strengths, weaknesses, and potential improvements. Our findings set a new benchmark for evaluating LLMs and suggest new directions for future advancements. Our data and code are freely available to the broader scientific community on GitHub.

Few-shot learning (FSL) is an important and topical problem in computer vision that has motivated extensive research into numerous methods spanning from sophisticated meta-learning methods to simple transfer learning baselines. We seek to push the limits of a simple-but-effective pipeline for more realistic and practical settings of few-shot image classification. To this end, we explore few-shot learning from the perspective of neural network architecture, as well as a three stage pipeline of network updates under different data supplies, where unsupervised external data is considered for pre-training, base categories are used to simulate few-shot tasks for meta-training, and the scarcely labelled data of an novel task is taken for fine-tuning. We investigate questions such as: (1) How pre-training on external data benefits FSL? (2) How state-of-the-art transformer architectures can be exploited? and (3) How fine-tuning mitigates domain shift? Ultimately, we show that a simple transformer-based pipeline yields surprisingly good performance on standard benchmarks such as Mini-ImageNet, CIFAR-FS, CDFSL and Meta-Dataset. Our code and demo are available at https://hushell.github.io/pmf.

Visual Question Answering (VQA) in its ideal form lets us study reasoning in the joint space of vision and language and serves as a proxy for the AI task of scene understanding. However, most VQA benchmarks to date are focused on questions such as simple counting, visual attributes, and object detection that do not require reasoning or knowledge beyond what is in the image. In this paper, we address the task of knowledge-based visual question answering and provide a benchmark, called OK-VQA, where the image content is not sufficient to answer the questions, encouraging methods that rely on external knowledge resources. Our new dataset includes more than 14,000 questions that require external knowledge to answer. We show that the performance of the state-of-the-art VQA models degrades drastically in this new setting. Our analysis shows that our knowledge-based VQA task is diverse, difficult, and large compared to previous knowledge-based VQA datasets. We hope that this dataset enables researchers to open up new avenues for research in this domain. See http://okvqa.allenai.org to download and browse the dataset.

Perception and expression of emotion are key factors to the success of dialogue systems or conversational agents. However, this problem has not been studied in large-scale conversation generation so far. In this paper, we propose Emotional Chatting Machine (ECM) that can generate appropriate responses not only in content (relevant and grammatical) but also in emotion (emotionally consistent). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that addresses the emotion factor in large-scale conversation generation. ECM addresses the factor using three new mechanisms that respectively (1) models the high-level abstraction of emotion expressions by embedding emotion categories, (2) captures the change of implicit internal emotion states, and (3) uses explicit emotion expressions with an external emotion vocabulary. Experiments show that the proposed model can generate responses appropriate not only in content but also in emotion.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

Huge language models (LMs) have ushered in a new era for AI, serving as a gateway to natural-language-based knowledge tasks. Although an essential element of modern AI, LMs are also inherently limited in a number of ways. We discuss these limitations and how they can be avoided by adopting a systems approach. Conceptualizing the challenge as one that involves knowledge and reasoning in addition to linguistic processing, we define a flexible architecture with multiple neural models, complemented by discrete knowledge and reasoning modules. We describe this neuro-symbolic architecture, dubbed the Modular Reasoning, Knowledge and Language (MRKL, pronounced "miracle") system, some of the technical challenges in implementing it, and Jurassic-X, AI21 Labs' MRKL system implementation.

A prominent challenge of offline reinforcement learning (RL) is the issue of hidden confounding: unobserved variables may influence both the actions taken by the agent and the observed outcomes. Hidden confounding can compromise the validity of any causal conclusion drawn from data and presents a major obstacle to effective offline RL. In the present paper, we tackle the problem of hidden confounding in the nonidentifiable setting. We propose a definition of uncertainty due to hidden confounding bias, termed delphic uncertainty, which uses variation over world models compatible with the observations, and differentiate it from the well-known epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. We derive a practical method for estimating the three types of uncertainties, and construct a pessimistic offline RL algorithm to account for them. Our method does not assume identifiability of the unobserved confounders, and attempts to reduce the amount of confounding bias. We demonstrate through extensive experiments and ablations the efficacy of our approach on a sepsis management benchmark, as well as on electronic health records. Our results suggest that nonidentifiable hidden confounding bias can be mitigated to improve offline RL solutions in practice.

Predictions made by deep learning models are prone to data perturbations, adversarial attacks, and out-of-distribution inputs. To build a trusted AI system, it is therefore critical to accurately quantify the prediction uncertainties. While current efforts focus on improving uncertainty quantification accuracy and efficiency, there is a need to identify uncertainty sources and take actions to mitigate their effects on predictions. Therefore, we propose to develop explainable and actionable Bayesian deep learning methods to not only perform accurate uncertainty quantification but also explain the uncertainties, identify their sources, and propose strategies to mitigate the uncertainty impacts. Specifically, we introduce a gradient-based uncertainty attribution method to identify the most problematic regions of the input that contribute to the prediction uncertainty. Compared to existing methods, the proposed UA-Backprop has competitive accuracy, relaxed assumptions, and high efficiency. Moreover, we propose an uncertainty mitigation strategy that leverages the attribution results as attention to further improve the model performance. Both qualitative and quantitative evaluations are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methods.

Calibrated uncertainty estimates in machine learning are crucial to many fields such as autonomous vehicles, medicine, and weather and climate forecasting. While there is extensive literature on uncertainty calibration for classification, the classification findings do not always translate to regression. As a result, modern models for predicting uncertainty in regression settings typically produce uncalibrated and overconfident estimates. To address these gaps, we present a calibration method for regression settings that does not assume a particular uncertainty distribution over the error: Calibrating Regression Uncertainty Distributions Empirically (CRUDE). CRUDE makes the weaker assumption that error distributions have a constant arbitrary shape across the output space, shifted by predicted mean and scaled by predicted standard deviation. We detail a theoretical connection between CRUDE and conformal inference. Across an extensive set of regression tasks, CRUDE demonstrates consistently sharper, better calibrated, and more accurate uncertainty estimates than state-of-the-art techniques.

In the past couple of years, various approaches to representing and quantifying different types of predictive uncertainty in machine learning, notably in the setting of classification, have been proposed on the basis of second-order probability distributions, i.e., predictions in the form of distributions on probability distributions. A completely conclusive solution has not yet been found, however, as shown by recent criticisms of commonly used uncertainty measures associated with second-order distributions, identifying undesirable theoretical properties of these measures. In light of these criticisms, we propose a set of formal criteria that meaningful uncertainty measures for predictive uncertainty based on second-order distributions should obey. Moreover, we provide a general framework for developing uncertainty measures to account for these criteria, and offer an instantiation based on the Wasserstein distance, for which we prove that all criteria are satisfied.

When deploying machine learning models in high-stakes real-world environments such as health care, it is crucial to accurately assess the uncertainty concerning a model's prediction on abnormal inputs. However, there is a scarcity of literature analyzing this problem on medical data, especially on mixed-type tabular data such as Electronic Health Records. We close this gap by presenting a series of tests including a large variety of contemporary uncertainty estimation techniques, in order to determine whether they are able to identify out-of-distribution (OOD) patients. In contrast to previous work, we design tests on realistic and clinically relevant OOD groups, and run experiments on real-world medical data. We find that almost all techniques fail to achieve convincing results, partly disagreeing with earlier findings.

The accessibility of spatially distributed data, enabled by affordable sensors, field, and numerical experiments, has facilitated the development of data-driven solutions for scientific problems, including climate change, weather prediction, and urban planning. Neural Partial Differential Equations (Neural PDEs), which combine deep learning (DL) techniques with domain expertise (e.g., governing equations) for parameterization, have proven to be effective in capturing valuable correlations within spatiotemporal datasets. However, sparse and noisy measurements coupled with modeling approximation introduce aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. Therefore, quantifying uncertainties propagated from model inputs to outputs remains a challenge and an essential goal for establishing the trustworthiness of Neural PDEs. This work evaluates various Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) approaches for both Forward and Inverse Problems in scientific applications. Specifically, we investigate the effectiveness of Bayesian methods, such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) and Monte-Carlo Dropout (MCD), and a more conventional approach, Deep Ensembles (DE). To illustrate their performance, we take two canonical PDEs: Burger's equation and the Navier-Stokes equation. Our results indicate that Neural PDEs can effectively reconstruct flow systems and predict the associated unknown parameters. However, it is noteworthy that the results derived from Bayesian methods, based on our observations, tend to display a higher degree of certainty in their predictions as compared to those obtained using the DE. This elevated certainty in predictions suggests that Bayesian techniques might underestimate the true underlying uncertainty, thereby appearing more confident in their predictions than the DE approach.

Uncertainty quantification has received increasing attention in machine learning in the recent past. In particular, a distinction between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty has been found useful in this regard. The latter refers to the learner's (lack of) knowledge and appears to be especially difficult to measure and quantify. In this paper, we analyse a recent proposal based on the idea of a second-order learner, which yields predictions in the form of distributions over probability distributions. While standard (first-order) learners can be trained to predict accurate probabilities, namely by minimising suitable loss functions on sample data, we show that loss minimisation does not work for second-order predictors: The loss functions proposed for inducing such predictors do not incentivise the learner to represent its epistemic uncertainty in a faithful way.

Despite improvements in performances on different natural language generation tasks, deep neural models are prone to hallucinating facts that are incorrect or nonexistent. Different hypotheses are proposed and examined separately for different tasks, but no systematic explanations are available across these tasks. In this study, we draw connections between hallucinations and predictive uncertainty in conditional language generation. We investigate their relationship in both image captioning and data-to-text generation and propose a simple extension to beam search to reduce hallucination. Our analysis shows that higher predictive uncertainty corresponds to a higher chance of hallucination. Epistemic uncertainty is more indicative of hallucination than aleatoric or total uncertainties. It helps to achieve better results of trading performance in standard metric for less hallucination with the proposed beam search variant.

Applying a machine learning model for decision-making in the real world requires to distinguish what the model knows from what it does not. A critical factor in assessing the knowledge of a model is to quantify its predictive uncertainty. Predictive uncertainty is commonly measured by the entropy of the Bayesian model average (BMA) predictive distribution. Yet, the properness of this current measure of predictive uncertainty was recently questioned. We provide new insights regarding those limitations. Our analyses show that the current measure erroneously assumes that the BMA predictive distribution is equivalent to the predictive distribution of the true model that generated the dataset. Consequently, we introduce a theoretically grounded measure to overcome these limitations. We experimentally verify the benefits of our introduced measure of predictive uncertainty. We find that our introduced measure behaves more reasonably in controlled synthetic tasks. Moreover, our evaluations on ImageNet demonstrate that our introduced measure is advantageous in real-world applications utilizing predictive uncertainty.

Counterfactual explanations are attracting significant attention due to the flourishing applications of machine learning models in consequential domains. A counterfactual plan consists of multiple possibilities to modify a given instance so that the model's prediction will be altered. As the predictive model can be updated subject to the future arrival of new data, a counterfactual plan may become ineffective or infeasible with respect to the future values of the model parameters. In this work, we study the counterfactual plans under model uncertainty, in which the distribution of the model parameters is partially prescribed using only the first- and second-moment information. First, we propose an uncertainty quantification tool to compute the lower and upper bounds of the probability of validity for any given counterfactual plan. We then provide corrective methods to adjust the counterfactual plan to improve the validity measure. The numerical experiments validate our bounds and demonstrate that our correction increases the robustness of the counterfactual plans in different real-world datasets.

Modifying the fundamental commutation relation of quantum mechanics to reflect the influence of gravity is an important approach to reconcile the contradiction between quantum field theory and general relativity. In the past two decades, researchers have conducted extensive research on geometric phase problems in non-commutative spaces, but few have mentioned the correction of geometric phase problems using the Generalized Uncertainty Principle (GUP). This paper is the first to study the phase correction of Aharonov-Bohm (AB) effect by GUP.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a critical aspect of artificial intelligence (AI) systems, particularly in high-risk domains such as healthcare, autonomous systems, and financial technology, where decision-making processes must account for uncertainty. This review explores the evolution of uncertainty quantification techniques in AI, distinguishing between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, and discusses the mathematical foundations and methods used to quantify these uncertainties. We provide an overview of advanced techniques, including probabilistic methods, ensemble learning, sampling-based approaches, and generative models, while also highlighting hybrid approaches that integrate domain-specific knowledge. Furthermore, we examine the diverse applications of UQ across various fields, emphasizing its impact on decision-making, predictive accuracy, and system robustness. The review also addresses key challenges such as scalability, efficiency, and integration with explainable AI, and outlines future directions for research in this rapidly developing area. Through this comprehensive survey, we aim to provide a deeper understanding of UQ's role in enhancing the reliability, safety, and trustworthiness of AI systems.

In light of recent work on scheduling with predicted job sizes, we consider the effect of the cost of predictions in queueing systems, removing the assumption in prior research that predictions are external to the system's resources and/or cost-free. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to utilizing predictions, SkipPredict, designed to address their inherent cost. Rather than uniformly applying predictions to all jobs, we propose a tailored approach that categorizes jobs based on their prediction requirements. To achieve this, we employ one-bit "cheap predictions" to classify jobs as either short or long. SkipPredict prioritizes predicted short jobs over long jobs, and for the latter, SkipPredict applies a second round of more detailed "expensive predictions" to approximate Shortest Remaining Processing Time for these jobs. Our analysis takes into account the cost of prediction. We examine the effect of this cost for two distinct models. In the external cost model, predictions are generated by some external method without impacting job service times but incur a cost. In the server time cost model, predictions themselves require server processing time, and are scheduled on the same server as the jobs.

Artificial intelligence commonly refers to the science and engineering of artificial systems that can carry out tasks generally associated with requiring aspects of human intelligence, such as playing games, translating languages, and driving cars. In recent years, there have been exciting advances in learning-based, data-driven approaches towards AI, and machine learning and deep learning have enabled computer systems to perceive the world in unprecedented ways. Reinforcement learning has enabled breakthroughs in complex games such as Go and challenging robotics tasks such as quadrupedal locomotion. A key aspect of intelligence is to not only make predictions, but reason about the uncertainty in these predictions, and to consider this uncertainty when making decisions. This is what this manuscript on "Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence" is about. The first part covers probabilistic approaches to machine learning. We discuss the differentiation between "epistemic" uncertainty due to lack of data and "aleatoric" uncertainty, which is irreducible and stems, e.g., from noisy observations and outcomes. We discuss concrete approaches towards probabilistic inference and modern approaches to efficient approximate inference. The second part of the manuscript is about taking uncertainty into account in sequential decision tasks. We consider active learning and Bayesian optimization -- approaches that collect data by proposing experiments that are informative for reducing the epistemic uncertainty. We then consider reinforcement learning and modern deep RL approaches that use neural network function approximation. We close by discussing modern approaches in model-based RL, which harness epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty to guide exploration, while also reasoning about safety.

This paper claims that machine learning (ML) largely overlooks an important facet of general intelligence: robustness to a qualitatively unknown future in an open world. Such robustness relates to Knightian uncertainty (KU) in economics, i.e. uncertainty that cannot be quantified, which is excluded from consideration in ML's key formalisms. This paper aims to identify this blind spot, argue its importance, and catalyze research into addressing it, which we believe is necessary to create truly robust open-world AI. To help illuminate the blind spot, we contrast one area of ML, reinforcement learning (RL), with the process of biological evolution. Despite staggering ongoing progress, RL still struggles in open-world situations, often failing under unforeseen situations. For example, the idea of zero-shot transferring a self-driving car policy trained only in the US to the UK currently seems exceedingly ambitious. In dramatic contrast, biological evolution routinely produces agents that thrive within an open world, sometimes even to situations that are remarkably out-of-distribution (e.g. invasive species; or humans, who do undertake such zero-shot international driving). Interestingly, evolution achieves such robustness without explicit theory, formalisms, or mathematical gradients. We explore the assumptions underlying RL's typical formalisms, showing how they limit RL's engagement with the unknown unknowns characteristic of an ever-changing complex world. Further, we identify mechanisms through which evolutionary processes foster robustness to novel and unpredictable challenges, and discuss potential pathways to algorithmically embody them. The conclusion is that the intriguing remaining fragility of ML may result from blind spots in its formalisms, and that significant gains may result from direct confrontation with the challenge of KU.

The 100 MW cryogenic liquid oxygen/hydrogen multi-injector combustor BKD operated by the DLR Institute of Space Propulsion is a research platform that allows the study of thermoacoustic instabilities under realistic conditions, representative of small upper stage rocket engines. We use data from BKD experimental campaigns in which the static chamber pressure and fuel-oxidizer ratio are varied such that the first tangential mode of the combustor is excited under some conditions. We train an autoregressive Bayesian neural network model to forecast the amplitude of the dynamic pressure time series, inputting multiple sensor measurements (injector pressure/ temperature measurements, static chamber pressure, high-frequency dynamic pressure measurements, high-frequency OH* chemiluminescence measurements) and future flow rate control signals. The Bayesian nature of our algorithms allows us to work with a dataset whose size is restricted by the expense of each experimental run, without making overconfident extrapolations. We find that the networks are able to accurately forecast the evolution of the pressure amplitude and anticipate instability events on unseen experimental runs 500 milliseconds in advance. We compare the predictive accuracy of multiple models using different combinations of sensor inputs. We find that the high-frequency dynamic pressure signal is particularly informative. We also use the technique of integrated gradients to interpret the influence of different sensor inputs on the model prediction. The negative log-likelihood of data points in the test dataset indicates that predictive uncertainties are well-characterized by our Bayesian model and simulating a sensor failure event results as expected in a dramatic increase in the epistemic component of the uncertainty.

Uncertainty estimation is critical for cost-sensitive deep-learning applications (i.e. disease diagnosis). It is very challenging partly due to the inaccessibility of uncertainty groundtruth in most datasets. Previous works proposed to estimate the uncertainty from softmax calibration, Monte Carlo sampling, subjective logic and so on. However, these existing methods tend to be over-confident about their predictions with unreasonably low overall uncertainty, which originates from the imbalance between positive (correct classifications) and negative (incorrect classifications) samples. For this issue, we firstly propose the distributional imbalance to model the imbalance in uncertainty estimation as two kinds of distribution biases, and secondly propose Balanced True Class Probability (BTCP) framework, which learns an uncertainty estimator with a novel Distributional Focal Loss (DFL) objective. Finally, we evaluate the BTCP in terms of failure prediction and out-of-distribution (OOD) detection on multiple datasets. The experimental results show that BTCP outperforms other uncertainty estimation methods especially in identifying incorrect classifications.

The prevalence and importance of algorithmic two-sided marketplaces has drawn attention to the issue of fairness in such settings. Algorithmic decisions are used in assigning students to schools, users to advertisers, and applicants to job interviews. These decisions should heed the preferences of individuals, and simultaneously be fair with respect to their merits (synonymous with fit, future performance, or need). Merits conditioned on observable features are always uncertain, a fact that is exacerbated by the widespread use of machine learning algorithms to infer merit from the observables. As our key contribution, we carefully axiomatize a notion of individual fairness in the two-sided marketplace setting which respects the uncertainty in the merits; indeed, it simultaneously recognizes uncertainty as the primary potential cause of unfairness and an approach to address it. We design a linear programming framework to find fair utility-maximizing distributions over allocations, and we show that the linear program is robust to perturbations in the estimated parameters of the uncertain merit distributions, a key property in combining the approach with machine learning techniques.

Identifying how much a model {p}_{theta}(Y|X) knows about the stochastic real-world process p(Y|X) it was trained on is important to ensure it avoids producing incorrect or "hallucinated" answers or taking unsafe actions. But this is difficult for generative models because probabilistic predictions do not distinguish between per-response noise (aleatoric uncertainty) and lack of knowledge about the process (epistemic uncertainty), and existing epistemic uncertainty quantification techniques tend to be overconfident when the model underfits. We propose a general strategy for teaching a model to both approximate p(Y|X) and also estimate the remaining gaps between {p}_{theta}(Y|X) and p(Y|X): train it to predict pairs of independent responses drawn from the true conditional distribution, allow it to "cheat" by observing one response while predicting the other, then measure how much it cheats. Remarkably, we prove that being good at cheating (i.e. cheating whenever it improves your prediction) is equivalent to being second-order calibrated, a principled extension of ordinary calibration that allows us to construct provably-correct frequentist confidence intervals for p(Y|X) and detect incorrect responses with high probability. We demonstrate empirically that our approach accurately estimates how much models don't know across ambiguous image classification, (synthetic) language modeling, and partially-observable navigation tasks, outperforming existing techniques.

Quantifying uncertainty is important for actionable predictions in real-world applications. A crucial part of predictive uncertainty quantification is the estimation of epistemic uncertainty, which is defined as an integral of the product between a divergence function and the posterior. Current methods such as Deep Ensembles or MC dropout underperform at estimating the epistemic uncertainty, since they primarily consider the posterior when sampling models. We suggest Quantification of Uncertainty with Adversarial Models (QUAM) to better estimate the epistemic uncertainty. QUAM identifies regions where the whole product under the integral is large, not just the posterior. Consequently, QUAM has lower approximation error of the epistemic uncertainty compared to previous methods. Models for which the product is large correspond to adversarial models (not adversarial examples!). Adversarial models have both a high posterior as well as a high divergence between their predictions and that of a reference model. Our experiments show that QUAM excels in capturing epistemic uncertainty for deep learning models and outperforms previous methods on challenging tasks in the vision domain.

We consider the problem of performing Bayesian inference in probabilistic models where observations are accompanied by uncertainty, referred to as "uncertain evidence." We explore how to interpret uncertain evidence, and by extension the importance of proper interpretation as it pertains to inference about latent variables. We consider a recently-proposed method "distributional evidence" as well as revisit two older methods: Jeffrey's rule and virtual evidence. We devise guidelines on how to account for uncertain evidence and we provide new insights, particularly regarding consistency. To showcase the impact of different interpretations of the same uncertain evidence, we carry out experiments in which one interpretation is defined as "correct." We then compare inference results from each different interpretation illustrating the importance of careful consideration of uncertain evidence.

We show that a GPT-3 model can learn to express uncertainty about its own answers in natural language -- without use of model logits. When given a question, the model generates both an answer and a level of confidence (e.g. "90% confidence" or "high confidence"). These levels map to probabilities that are well calibrated. The model also remains moderately calibrated under distribution shift, and is sensitive to uncertainty in its own answers, rather than imitating human examples. To our knowledge, this is the first time a model has been shown to express calibrated uncertainty about its own answers in natural language. For testing calibration, we introduce the CalibratedMath suite of tasks. We compare the calibration of uncertainty expressed in words ("verbalized probability") to uncertainty extracted from model logits. Both kinds of uncertainty are capable of generalizing calibration under distribution shift. We also provide evidence that GPT-3's ability to generalize calibration depends on pre-trained latent representations that correlate with epistemic uncertainty over its answers.

Ecological management and decision-making typically focus on uncertainty about the future, but surprisingly little is known about how to account for uncertainty of the present: that is, the realities of having only partial or imperfect measurements. Our primary paradigms for handling decisions under uncertainty -- the precautionary principle and optimal control -- have so far given contradictory results. This paradox is best illustrated in the example of fisheries management, where many ideas that guide thinking about ecological decision making were first developed. We find that simplistic optimal control approaches have repeatedly concluded that a manager should increase catch quotas when faced with greater uncertainty about the fish biomass. Current best practices take a more precautionary approach, decreasing catch quotas by a fixed amount to account for uncertainty. Using comparisons to both simulated and historical catch data, we find that neither approach is sufficient to avoid stock collapses under moderate observational uncertainty. Using partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP) methods, we demonstrate how this paradox arises from flaws in the standard theory, which contributes to over-exploitation of fisheries and increased probability of economic and ecological collapse. In contrast, we find POMDP-based management avoids such over-exploitation while also generating higher economic value. These results have significant implications for how we handle uncertainty in both fisheries and ecological management more generally.

Offline reinforcement learning enables agents to leverage large pre-collected datasets of environment transitions to learn control policies, circumventing the need for potentially expensive or unsafe online data collection. Significant progress has been made recently in offline model-based reinforcement learning, approaches which leverage a learned dynamics model. This typically involves constructing a probabilistic model, and using the model uncertainty to penalize rewards where there is insufficient data, solving for a pessimistic MDP that lower bounds the true MDP. Existing methods, however, exhibit a breakdown between theory and practice, whereby pessimistic return ought to be bounded by the total variation distance of the model from the true dynamics, but is instead implemented through a penalty based on estimated model uncertainty. This has spawned a variety of uncertainty heuristics, with little to no comparison between differing approaches. In this paper, we compare these heuristics, and design novel protocols to investigate their interaction with other hyperparameters, such as the number of models, or imaginary rollout horizon. Using these insights, we show that selecting these key hyperparameters using Bayesian Optimization produces superior configurations that are vastly different to those currently used in existing hand-tuned state-of-the-art methods, and result in drastically stronger performance.

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques usually incur overhead by having to train multiple model instances or do not produce very diverse predictions. This comprehensive and extensive survey aims to familiarize the reader with an alternative class of models based on the concept of Evidential Deep Learning: For unfamiliar data, they aim to admit "what they don't know", and fall back onto a prior belief. Furthermore, they allow uncertainty estimation in a single model and forward pass by parameterizing distributions over distributions. This survey recapitulates existing works, focusing on the implementation in a classification setting, before surveying the application of the same paradigm to regression. We also reflect on the strengths and weaknesses compared to other existing methods and provide the most fundamental derivations using a unified notation to aid future research.