Daily Papers

The reflection capacity of Large Language Model (LLM) has garnered extensive attention. A post-hoc prompting strategy, e.g., reflexion and self-refine, refines LLM's response based on self-evaluated or external feedback. However, recent research indicates without external feedback, LLM's intrinsic reflection is unstable. Our investigation unveils that the key bottleneck is the quality of the self-evaluated feedback. We find LLMs often exhibit overconfidence or high randomness when self-evaluate, offering stubborn or inconsistent feedback, which causes poor reflection. To remedy this, we advocate Self-Contrast: It adaptively explores diverse solving perspectives tailored to the request, contrasts the differences, and summarizes these discrepancies into a checklist which could be used to re-examine and eliminate discrepancies. Our method endows LLM with diverse perspectives to alleviate stubborn biases. Moreover, their discrepancies indicate potential errors or inherent uncertainties that LLM often overlooks. Reflecting upon these can catalyze more accurate and stable reflection. Experiments conducted on a series of reasoning and translation tasks with different LLMs serve to underscore the effectiveness and generality of our strategy.

The quickly increasing data traffic and the user demand for a full coverage of mobile services anywhere and anytime are leading mobile networking into a future of small cell networks. However, due to the high-density and randomness of small cell networks, there are several technical challenges. In this paper, we investigate two critical issues: best signal quality and mobility management. Under the assumptions that base stations are uniformly distributed in a ring shaped region and that shadowings are lognormal, independent and identically distributed, we prove that when the number of sites in the ring tends to infinity, then (i) the maximum signal strength received at the center of the ring tends in distribution to a Gumbel distribution when properly renormalized, and (ii) it is asymptotically independent of the interference. Using these properties, we derive the distribution of the best signal quality. Furthermore, an optimized random cell scanning scheme is proposed, based on the evaluation of the optimal number of sites to be scanned for maximizing the user data throughput.

Understanding the galaxy-halo relationship is not only key for elucidating the interplay between baryonic and dark matter, it is essential for creating large mock galaxy catalogues from N-body simulations. High-resolution hydrodynamical simulations are limited to small volumes by their large computational demands, hindering their use for comparisons with wide-field observational surveys. We overcome this limitation by using the First Light and Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES), a suite of high-resolution (M_gas = 1.8 x 10^6 M_Sun) zoom simulations drawn from a large, (3.2 cGpc)^3 box. We use an extremely randomised trees machine learning approach to model the relationship between galaxies and their subhaloes in a wide range of environments. This allows us to build mock catalogues with dynamic ranges that surpass those obtainable through periodic simulations. The low cost of the zoom simulations facilitates multiple runs of the same regions, differing only in the random number seed of the subgrid models; changing this seed introduces a butterfly effect, leading to random differences in the properties of matching galaxies. This randomness cannot be learnt by a deterministic machine learning model, but by sampling the noise and adding it post-facto to our predictions, we are able to recover the distributions of the galaxy properties we predict (stellar mass, star formation rate, metallicity, and size) remarkably well. We also explore the resolution-dependence of our models' performances and find minimal depreciation down to particle resolutions of order M_DM ~ 10^8 M_Sun, enabling the future application of our models to large dark matter-only boxes.

Score distillation sampling (SDS) and its variants have greatly boosted the development of text-to-3D generation, but are vulnerable to geometry collapse and poor textures yet. To solve this issue, we first deeply analyze the SDS and find that its distillation sampling process indeed corresponds to the trajectory sampling of a stochastic differential equation (SDE): SDS samples along an SDE trajectory to yield a less noisy sample which then serves as a guidance to optimize a 3D model. However, the randomness in SDE sampling often leads to a diverse and unpredictable sample which is not always less noisy, and thus is not a consistently correct guidance, explaining the vulnerability of SDS. Since for any SDE, there always exists an ordinary differential equation (ODE) whose trajectory sampling can deterministically and consistently converge to the desired target point as the SDE, we propose a novel and effective "Consistent3D" method that explores the ODE deterministic sampling prior for text-to-3D generation. Specifically, at each training iteration, given a rendered image by a 3D model, we first estimate its desired 3D score function by a pre-trained 2D diffusion model, and build an ODE for trajectory sampling. Next, we design a consistency distillation sampling loss which samples along the ODE trajectory to generate two adjacent samples and uses the less noisy sample to guide another more noisy one for distilling the deterministic prior into the 3D model. Experimental results show the efficacy of our Consistent3D in generating high-fidelity and diverse 3D objects and large-scale scenes, as shown in Fig. 1. The codes are available at https://github.com/sail-sg/Consistent3D.

Inspired by the fact that the neural network, as the mainstream for machine learning, has brought successes in many application areas, here we propose to use this approach for decoding hidden correlation among pseudo-random data and predicting events accordingly. With a simple neural network structure and a typical training procedure, we demonstrate the learning and prediction power of the neural network in extremely random environment. Finally, we postulate that the high sensitivity and efficiency of the neural network may allow to critically test if there could be any fundamental difference between quantum randomness and pseudo randomness, which is equivalent to the question: Does God play dice?

Research on the 'cultural alignment' of Large Language Models (LLMs) has emerged in response to growing interest in understanding representation across diverse stakeholders. Current approaches to evaluating cultural alignment borrow social science methodologies but often overlook systematic robustness checks. Here, we identify and test three assumptions behind current evaluation methods: (1) Stability: that cultural alignment is a property of LLMs rather than an artifact of evaluation design, (2) Extrapolability: that alignment with one culture on a narrow set of issues predicts alignment with that culture on others, and (3) Steerability: that LLMs can be reliably prompted to represent specific cultural perspectives. Through experiments examining both explicit and implicit preferences of leading LLMs, we find a high level of instability across presentation formats, incoherence between evaluated versus held-out cultural dimensions, and erratic behavior under prompt steering. We show that these inconsistencies can cause the results of an evaluation to be very sensitive to minor variations in methodology. Finally, we demonstrate in a case study on evaluation design that narrow experiments and a selective assessment of evidence can be used to paint an incomplete picture of LLMs' cultural alignment properties. Overall, these results highlight significant limitations of current approaches for evaluating the cultural alignment of LLMs.

The fundamental theorem behind financial markets is that stock prices are intrinsically complex and stochastic. One of the complexities is the volatility associated with stock prices. Volatility is a tendency for prices to change unexpectedly [1]. Price volatility is often detrimental to the return economics, and thus, investors should factor it in whenever making investment decisions, choices, and temporal or permanent moves. It is, therefore, crucial to make necessary and regular short and long-term stock price volatility forecasts for the safety and economics of investors returns. These forecasts should be accurate and not misleading. Different models and methods, such as ARCH GARCH models, have been intuitively implemented to make such forecasts. However, such traditional means fail to capture the short-term volatility forecasts effectively. This paper, therefore, investigates and implements a combination of numeric and probabilistic models for short-term volatility and return forecasting for high-frequency trades. The essence is that one-day-ahead volatility forecasts were made with Gaussian Processes (GPs) applied to the outputs of a Numerical market prediction (NMP) model. Firstly, the stock price data from NMP was corrected by a GP. Since it is not easy to set price limits in a market due to its free nature and randomness, a Censored GP was used to model the relationship between the corrected stock prices and returns. Forecasting errors were evaluated using the implied and estimated data.

Evaluating the performance of machine learning models under distribution shift is challenging, especially when we only have unlabeled data from the shifted (target) domain, along with labeled data from the original (source) domain. Recent work suggests that the notion of disagreement, the degree to which two models trained with different randomness differ on the same input, is a key to tackle this problem. Experimentally, disagreement and prediction error have been shown to be strongly connected, which has been used to estimate model performance. Experiments have led to the discovery of the disagreement-on-the-line phenomenon, whereby the classification error under the target domain is often a linear function of the classification error under the source domain; and whenever this property holds, disagreement under the source and target domain follow the same linear relation. In this work, we develop a theoretical foundation for analyzing disagreement in high-dimensional random features regression; and study under what conditions the disagreement-on-the-line phenomenon occurs in our setting. Experiments on CIFAR-10-C, Tiny ImageNet-C, and Camelyon17 are consistent with our theory and support the universality of the theoretical findings.

Quantum circuits -- built from local unitary gates and local measurements -- are a new playground for quantum many-body physics and a tractable setting to explore universal collective phenomena far-from-equilibrium. These models have shed light on longstanding questions about thermalization and chaos, and on the underlying universal dynamics of quantum information and entanglement. In addition, such models generate new sets of questions and give rise to phenomena with no traditional analog, such as new dynamical phases in quantum systems that are monitored by an external observer. Quantum circuit dynamics is also topical in view of experimental progress in building digital quantum simulators that allow control of precisely these ingredients. Randomness in the circuit elements allows a high level of theoretical control, with a key theme being mappings between real-time quantum dynamics and effective classical lattice models or dynamical processes. Many of the universal phenomena that can be identified in this tractable setting apply to much wider classes of more structured many-body dynamics.

Large language models (LLMs) have significantly advanced in reasoning tasks through reinforcement learning (RL) optimization, achieving impressive capabilities across various challenging benchmarks. However, our empirical analysis reveals a critical drawback: reasoning-oriented RL fine-tuning significantly increases the prevalence of hallucinations. We theoretically analyze the RL training dynamics, identifying high-variance gradient, entropy-induced randomness, and susceptibility to spurious local optima as key factors leading to hallucinations. To address this drawback, we propose Factuality-aware Step-wise Policy Optimization (FSPO), an innovative RL fine-tuning algorithm incorporating explicit factuality verification at each reasoning step. FSPO leverages automated verification against given evidence to dynamically adjust token-level advantage values, incentivizing factual correctness throughout the reasoning process. Experiments across mathematical reasoning and hallucination benchmarks using Qwen2.5 and Llama models demonstrate that FSPO effectively reduces hallucinations while enhancing reasoning accuracy, substantially improving both reliability and performance.

This study introduces PV-RNN, a novel variational RNN inspired by the predictive-coding ideas. The model learns to extract the probabilistic structures hidden in fluctuating temporal patterns by dynamically changing the stochasticity of its latent states. Its architecture attempts to address two major concerns of variational Bayes RNNs: how can latent variables learn meaningful representations and how can the inference model transfer future observations to the latent variables. PV-RNN does both by introducing adaptive vectors mirroring the training data, whose values can then be adapted differently during evaluation. Moreover, prediction errors during backpropagation, rather than external inputs during the forward computation, are used to convey information to the network about the external data. For testing, we introduce error regression for predicting unseen sequences as inspired by predictive coding that leverages those mechanisms. The model introduces a weighting parameter, the meta-prior, to balance the optimization pressure placed on two terms of a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the sequential data. We test the model on two datasets with probabilistic structures and show that with high values of the meta-prior the network develops deterministic chaos through which the data's randomness is imitated. For low values, the model behaves as a random process. The network performs best on intermediate values, and is able to capture the latent probabilistic structure with good generalization. Analyzing the meta-prior's impact on the network allows to precisely study the theoretical value and practical benefits of incorporating stochastic dynamics in our model. We demonstrate better prediction performance on a robot imitation task with our model using error regression compared to a standard variational Bayes model lacking such a procedure.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have become indispensable in numerous real-world applications. Unfortunately, fine-tuning these models at scale, especially in federated settings where data privacy and communication efficiency are critical, presents significant challenges. Existing methods often resort to parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) to mitigate communication overhead, but this typically comes at the cost of model accuracy. To address these limitations, we propose federated full-parameter tuning at scale for LLMs (Ferret), the first first-order method with shared randomness to enable scalable full-parameter tuning of LLMs across decentralized data sources while maintaining competitive model accuracy. Ferret accomplishes this through three aspects: (1) it employs widely applied first-order methods for efficient local updates; (2) it projects these updates into a low-dimensional space to considerably reduce communication overhead; and (3) it reconstructs local updates from this low-dimensional space with shared randomness to facilitate effective full-parameter global aggregation, ensuring fast convergence and competitive final performance. Our rigorous theoretical analyses and insights along with extensive experiments, show that Ferret significantly enhances the scalability of existing federated full-parameter tuning approaches by achieving high computational efficiency, reduced communication overhead, and fast convergence, all while maintaining competitive model accuracy. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/allen4747/Ferret.

Text-based diffusion models have exhibited remarkable success in generation and editing, showing great promise for enhancing visual content with their generative prior. However, applying these models to video super-resolution remains challenging due to the high demands for output fidelity and temporal consistency, which is complicated by the inherent randomness in diffusion models. Our study introduces Upscale-A-Video, a text-guided latent diffusion framework for video upscaling. This framework ensures temporal coherence through two key mechanisms: locally, it integrates temporal layers into U-Net and VAE-Decoder, maintaining consistency within short sequences; globally, without training, a flow-guided recurrent latent propagation module is introduced to enhance overall video stability by propagating and fusing latent across the entire sequences. Thanks to the diffusion paradigm, our model also offers greater flexibility by allowing text prompts to guide texture creation and adjustable noise levels to balance restoration and generation, enabling a trade-off between fidelity and quality. Extensive experiments show that Upscale-A-Video surpasses existing methods in both synthetic and real-world benchmarks, as well as in AI-generated videos, showcasing impressive visual realism and temporal consistency.

Typical neural network trainings have substantial variance in test-set performance between repeated runs, impeding hyperparameter comparison and training reproducibility. We present the following results towards understanding this variation. (1) Despite having significant variance on their test-sets, we demonstrate that standard CIFAR-10 and ImageNet trainings have very little variance in their performance on the test-distributions from which those test-sets are sampled, suggesting that variance is less of a practical issue than previously thought. (2) We present a simplifying statistical assumption which closely approximates the structure of the test-set accuracy distribution. (3) We argue that test-set variance is inevitable in the following two senses. First, we show that variance is largely caused by high sensitivity of the training process to initial conditions, rather than by specific sources of randomness like the data order and augmentations. Second, we prove that variance is unavoidable given the observation that ensembles of trained networks are well-calibrated. (4) We conduct preliminary studies of distribution-shift, fine-tuning, data augmentation and learning rate through the lens of variance between runs.

Diffusion models have demonstrated remarkable success in image generation and editing, with recent advancements enabling albedo-preserving image relighting. However, applying these models to video relighting remains challenging due to the lack of paired video relighting datasets and the high demands for output fidelity and temporal consistency, further complicated by the inherent randomness of diffusion models. To address these challenges, we introduce RelightVid, a flexible framework for video relighting that can accept background video, text prompts, or environment maps as relighting conditions. Trained on in-the-wild videos with carefully designed illumination augmentations and rendered videos under extreme dynamic lighting, RelightVid achieves arbitrary video relighting with high temporal consistency without intrinsic decomposition while preserving the illumination priors of its image backbone.

In an era marked by the rapid scaling of foundation models, autonomous driving technologies are approaching a transformative threshold where end-to-end autonomous driving (E2E-AD) emerges due to its potential of scaling up in the data-driven manner. However, existing E2E-AD methods are mostly evaluated under the open-loop log-replay manner with L2 errors and collision rate as metrics (e.g., in nuScenes), which could not fully reflect the driving performance of algorithms as recently acknowledged in the community. For those E2E-AD methods evaluated under the closed-loop protocol, they are tested in fixed routes (e.g., Town05Long and Longest6 in CARLA) with the driving score as metrics, which is known for high variance due to the unsmoothed metric function and large randomness in the long route. Besides, these methods usually collect their own data for training, which makes algorithm-level fair comparison infeasible. To fulfill the paramount need of comprehensive, realistic, and fair testing environments for Full Self-Driving (FSD), we present Bench2Drive, the first benchmark for evaluating E2E-AD systems' multiple abilities in a closed-loop manner. Bench2Drive's official training data consists of 2 million fully annotated frames, collected from 13638 short clips uniformly distributed under 44 interactive scenarios (cut-in, overtaking, detour, etc), 23 weathers (sunny, foggy, rainy, etc), and 12 towns (urban, village, university, etc) in CARLA v2. Its evaluation protocol requires E2E-AD models to pass 44 interactive scenarios under different locations and weathers which sums up to 220 routes and thus provides a comprehensive and disentangled assessment about their driving capability under different situations. We implement state-of-the-art E2E-AD models and evaluate them in Bench2Drive, providing insights regarding current status and future directions.

Future- or return-conditioned supervised learning is an emerging paradigm for offline reinforcement learning (RL), where the future outcome (i.e., return) associated with an observed action sequence is used as input to a policy trained to imitate those same actions. While return-conditioning is at the heart of popular algorithms such as decision transformer (DT), these methods tend to perform poorly in highly stochastic environments, where an occasional high return can arise from randomness in the environment rather than the actions themselves. Such situations can lead to a learned policy that is inconsistent with its conditioning inputs; i.e., using the policy to act in the environment, when conditioning on a specific desired return, leads to a distribution of real returns that is wildly different than desired. In this work, we propose the dichotomy of control (DoC), a future-conditioned supervised learning framework that separates mechanisms within a policy's control (actions) from those beyond a policy's control (environment stochasticity). We achieve this separation by conditioning the policy on a latent variable representation of the future, and designing a mutual information constraint that removes any information from the latent variable associated with randomness in the environment. Theoretically, we show that DoC yields policies that are consistent with their conditioning inputs, ensuring that conditioning a learned policy on a desired high-return future outcome will correctly induce high-return behavior. Empirically, we show that DoC is able to achieve significantly better performance than DT on environments that have highly stochastic rewards and transition

Reinforcement learning (RL) has shown remarkable success in solving complex decision-making and control tasks. However, many model-free RL algorithms experience performance degradation due to inaccurate value estimation, particularly the overestimation of Q-values, which can lead to suboptimal policies. To address this issue, we previously proposed the Distributional Soft Actor-Critic (DSAC or DSACv1), an off-policy RL algorithm that enhances value estimation accuracy by learning a continuous Gaussian value distribution. Despite its effectiveness, DSACv1 faces challenges such as training instability and sensitivity to reward scaling, caused by high variance in critic gradients due to return randomness. In this paper, we introduce three key refinements to DSACv1 to overcome these limitations and further improve Q-value estimation accuracy: expected value substitution, twin value distribution learning, and variance-based critic gradient adjustment. The enhanced algorithm, termed DSAC with Three refinements (DSAC-T or DSACv2), is systematically evaluated across a diverse set of benchmark tasks. Without the need for task-specific hyperparameter tuning, DSAC-T consistently matches or outperforms leading model-free RL algorithms, including SAC, TD3, DDPG, TRPO, and PPO, in all tested environments. Additionally, DSAC-T ensures a stable learning process and maintains robust performance across varying reward scales. Its effectiveness is further demonstrated through real-world application in controlling a wheeled robot, highlighting its potential for deployment in practical robotic tasks.