Daily Papers

The ability to separate signal from noise, and reason with clean abstractions, is critical to intelligence. With this ability, humans can efficiently perform real world tasks without considering all possible nuisance factors.How can artificial agents do the same? What kind of information can agents safely discard as noises? In this work, we categorize information out in the wild into four types based on controllability and relation with reward, and formulate useful information as that which is both controllable and reward-relevant. This framework clarifies the kinds information removed by various prior work on representation learning in reinforcement learning (RL), and leads to our proposed approach of learning a Denoised MDP that explicitly factors out certain noise distractors. Extensive experiments on variants of DeepMind Control Suite and RoboDesk demonstrate superior performance of our denoised world model over using raw observations alone, and over prior works, across policy optimization control tasks as well as the non-control task of joint position regression.

Recent advances in generative models have enabled high-quality 3D character reconstruction from multi-modal. However, animating these generated characters remains a challenging task, especially for complex elements like garments and hair, due to the lack of large-scale datasets and effective rigging methods. To address this gap, we curate AnimeRig, a large-scale dataset with detailed skeleton and skinning annotations. Building upon this, we propose DRiVE, a novel framework for generating and rigging 3D human characters with intricate structures. Unlike existing methods, DRiVE utilizes a 3D Gaussian representation, facilitating efficient animation and high-quality rendering. We further introduce GSDiff, a 3D Gaussian-based diffusion module that predicts joint positions as spatial distributions, overcoming the limitations of regression-based approaches. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DRiVE achieves precise rigging results, enabling realistic dynamics for clothing and hair, and surpassing previous methods in both quality and versatility. The code and dataset will be made public for academic use upon acceptance.

Scene coordinate regression (SCR) methods are a family of visual localization methods that directly regress 2D-3D matches for camera pose estimation. They are effective in small-scale scenes but face significant challenges in large-scale scenes that are further amplified in the absence of ground truth 3D point clouds for supervision. Here, the model can only rely on reprojection constraints and needs to implicitly triangulate the points. The challenges stem from a fundamental dilemma: The network has to be invariant to observations of the same landmark at different viewpoints and lighting conditions, etc., but at the same time discriminate unrelated but similar observations. The latter becomes more relevant and severe in larger scenes. In this work, we tackle this problem by introducing the concept of co-visibility to the network. We propose GLACE, which integrates pre-trained global and local encodings and enables SCR to scale to large scenes with only a single small-sized network. Specifically, we propose a novel feature diffusion technique that implicitly groups the reprojection constraints with co-visibility and avoids overfitting to trivial solutions. Additionally, our position decoder parameterizes the output positions for large-scale scenes more effectively. Without using 3D models or depth maps for supervision, our method achieves state-of-the-art results on large-scale scenes with a low-map-size model. On Cambridge landmarks, with a single model, we achieve 17% lower median position error than Poker, the ensemble variant of the state-of-the-art SCR method ACE. Code is available at: https://github.com/cvg/glace.

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models that were initially proposed for realistic image generation have recently shown success in various perception tasks (e.g., object detection and image segmentation) and are increasingly gaining attention in computer vision. However, extending such models to multi-frame human pose estimation is non-trivial due to the presence of the additional temporal dimension in videos. More importantly, learning representations that focus on keypoint regions is crucial for accurate localization of human joints. Nevertheless, the adaptation of the diffusion-based methods remains unclear on how to achieve such objective. In this paper, we present DiffPose, a novel diffusion architecture that formulates video-based human pose estimation as a conditional heatmap generation problem. First, to better leverage temporal information, we propose SpatioTemporal Representation Learner which aggregates visual evidences across frames and uses the resulting features in each denoising step as a condition. In addition, we present a mechanism called Lookup-based MultiScale Feature Interaction that determines the correlations between local joints and global contexts across multiple scales. This mechanism generates delicate representations that focus on keypoint regions. Altogether, by extending diffusion models, we show two unique characteristics from DiffPose on pose estimation task: (i) the ability to combine multiple sets of pose estimates to improve prediction accuracy, particularly for challenging joints, and (ii) the ability to adjust the number of iterative steps for feature refinement without retraining the model. DiffPose sets new state-of-the-art results on three benchmarks: PoseTrack2017, PoseTrack2018, and PoseTrack21.

The regression of 3D Human Pose and Shape (HPS) from an image is becoming increasingly accurate. This makes the results useful for downstream tasks like human action recognition or 3D graphics. Yet, no regressor is perfect, and accuracy can be affected by ambiguous image evidence or by poses and appearance that are unseen during training. Most current HPS regressors, however, do not report the confidence of their outputs, meaning that downstream tasks cannot differentiate accurate estimates from inaccurate ones. To address this, we develop POCO, a novel framework for training HPS regressors to estimate not only a 3D human body, but also their confidence, in a single feed-forward pass. Specifically, POCO estimates both the 3D body pose and a per-sample variance. The key idea is to introduce a Dual Conditioning Strategy (DCS) for regressing uncertainty that is highly correlated to pose reconstruction quality. The POCO framework can be applied to any HPS regressor and here we evaluate it by modifying HMR, PARE, and CLIFF. In all cases, training the network to reason about uncertainty helps it learn to more accurately estimate 3D pose. While this was not our goal, the improvement is modest but consistent. Our main motivation is to provide uncertainty estimates for downstream tasks; we demonstrate this in two ways: (1) We use the confidence estimates to bootstrap HPS training. Given unlabelled image data, we take the confident estimates of a POCO-trained regressor as pseudo ground truth. Retraining with this automatically-curated data improves accuracy. (2) We exploit uncertainty in video pose estimation by automatically identifying uncertain frames (e.g. due to occlusion) and inpainting these from confident frames. Code and models will be available for research at https://poco.is.tue.mpg.de.

This paper addresses the challenge of localization of anatomical landmarks in knee X-ray images at different stages of osteoarthritis (OA). Landmark localization can be viewed as regression problem, where the landmark position is directly predicted by using the region of interest or even full-size images leading to large memory footprint, especially in case of high resolution medical images. In this work, we propose an efficient deep neural networks framework with an hourglass architecture utilizing a soft-argmax layer to directly predict normalized coordinates of the landmark points. We provide an extensive evaluation of different regularization techniques and various loss functions to understand their influence on the localization performance. Furthermore, we introduce the concept of transfer learning from low-budget annotations, and experimentally demonstrate that such approach is improving the accuracy of landmark localization. Compared to the prior methods, we validate our model on two datasets that are independent from the train data and assess the performance of the method for different stages of OA severity. The proposed approach demonstrates better generalization performance compared to the current state-of-the-art.

The presence of distribution shifts poses a significant challenge for deploying modern machine learning models in real-world applications. This work focuses on the target shift problem in a regression setting (Zhang et al., 2013; Nguyen et al., 2016). More specifically, the target variable y (also known as the response variable), which is continuous, has different marginal distributions in the training source and testing domain, while the conditional distribution of features x given y remains the same. While most literature focuses on classification tasks with finite target space, the regression problem has an infinite dimensional target space, which makes many of the existing methods inapplicable. In this work, we show that the continuous target shift problem can be addressed by estimating the importance weight function from an ill-posed integral equation. We propose a nonparametric regularized approach named ReTaSA to solve the ill-posed integral equation and provide theoretical justification for the estimated importance weight function. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been demonstrated with extensive numerical studies on synthetic and real-world datasets.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

Traditionally, monocular 3D human pose estimation employs a machine learning model to predict the most likely 3D pose for a given input image. However, a single image can be highly ambiguous and induces multiple plausible solutions for the 2D-3D lifting step which results in overly confident 3D pose predictors. To this end, we propose DiffPose, a conditional diffusion model, that predicts multiple hypotheses for a given input image. In comparison to similar approaches, our diffusion model is straightforward and avoids intensive hyperparameter tuning, complex network structures, mode collapse, and unstable training. Moreover, we tackle a problem of the common two-step approach that first estimates a distribution of 2D joint locations via joint-wise heatmaps and consecutively approximates them based on first- or second-moment statistics. Since such a simplification of the heatmaps removes valid information about possibly correct, though labeled unlikely, joint locations, we propose to represent the heatmaps as a set of 2D joint candidate samples. To extract information about the original distribution from these samples we introduce our embedding transformer that conditions the diffusion model. Experimentally, we show that DiffPose slightly improves upon the state of the art for multi-hypothesis pose estimation for simple poses and outperforms it by a large margin for highly ambiguous poses.

Object pose estimation, which plays a vital role in robotics, augmented reality, and autonomous driving, has been of great interest in computer vision. Existing studies either require multi-stage pose regression or rely on 2D-3D feature matching. Though these approaches have shown promising results, they rely heavily on appearance information, requiring complex input (i.e., multi-view reference input, depth, or CAD models) and intricate pipeline (i.e., feature extraction-SfM-2D to 3D matching-PnP). We propose AxisPose, a model-free, matching-free, single-shot solution for robust 6D pose estimation, which fundamentally diverges from the existing paradigm. Unlike existing methods that rely on 2D-3D or 2D-2D matching using 3D techniques, such as SfM and PnP, AxisPose directly infers a robust 6D pose from a single view by leveraging a diffusion model to learn the latent axis distribution of objects without reference views. Specifically, AxisPose constructs an Axis Generation Module (AGM) to capture the latent geometric distribution of object axes through a diffusion model. The diffusion process is guided by injecting the gradient of geometric consistency loss into the noise estimation to maintain the geometric consistency of the generated tri-axis. With the generated tri-axis projection, AxisPose further adopts a Triaxial Back-projection Module (TBM) to recover the 6D pose from the object tri-axis. The proposed AxisPose achieves robust performance at the cross-instance level (i.e., one model for N instances) using only a single view as input without reference images, with great potential for generalization to unseen-object level.

In sports analytics, accurately capturing both the 3D locations and rotations of body joints is essential for understanding an athlete's biomechanics. While Human Mesh Recovery (HMR) models can estimate joint rotations, they often exhibit lower accuracy in joint localization compared to 3D Human Pose Estimation (HPE) models. Recent work addressed this limitation by combining a 3D HPE model with inverse kinematics (IK) to estimate both joint locations and rotations. However, IK is computationally expensive. To overcome this, we propose a novel 2D-to-3D uplifting model that directly estimates 3D human poses, including joint rotations, in a single forward pass. We investigate multiple rotation representations, loss functions, and training strategies - both with and without access to ground truth rotations. Our models achieve state-of-the-art accuracy in rotation estimation, are 150 times faster than the IK-based approach, and surpass HMR models in joint localization precision.

Exploring spatial-temporal dependencies from observed motions is one of the core challenges of human motion prediction. Previous methods mainly focus on dedicated network structures to model the spatial and temporal dependencies. This paper considers a new direction by introducing a model learning framework with auxiliary tasks. In our auxiliary tasks, partial body joints' coordinates are corrupted by either masking or adding noise and the goal is to recover corrupted coordinates depending on the rest coordinates. To work with auxiliary tasks, we propose a novel auxiliary-adapted transformer, which can handle incomplete, corrupted motion data and achieve coordinate recovery via capturing spatial-temporal dependencies. Through auxiliary tasks, the auxiliary-adapted transformer is promoted to capture more comprehensive spatial-temporal dependencies among body joints' coordinates, leading to better feature learning. Extensive experimental results have shown that our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods by remarkable margins of 7.2%, 3.7%, and 9.4% in terms of 3D mean per joint position error (MPJPE) on the Human3.6M, CMU Mocap, and 3DPW datasets, respectively. We also demonstrate that our method is more robust under data missing cases and noisy data cases. Code is available at https://github.com/MediaBrain-SJTU/AuxFormer.

Many political science theories relate to latent variables, but such quantities cannot be observed directly and must instead be estimated from data with inherent uncertainty. In regression models, when a variable is measured with error, its slope coefficient is known to be biased toward zero. We show how measurement error interacts with unique aspects of latent variable estimation, identification restrictions in particular, and demonstrate how common error adjustment strategies can worsen bias. We introduce a method for adjusting coefficients on latent predictors, which reduces bias and typically increases the magnitude of estimated coefficients, often dramatically. We illustrate these dynamics using several different estimation strategies for the latent predictors. Corrected estimates using our proposed method show stronger relationships -- sometimes up to 50% larger -- than those from naive regression. Our findings highlight the importance of considering measurement error in latent predictors and the inadequacy of many commonly used approaches for dealing with this issue.

In this paper, we introduce a novel theoretical framework for multi-task regression, applying random matrix theory to provide precise performance estimations, under high-dimensional, non-Gaussian data distributions. We formulate a multi-task optimization problem as a regularization technique to enable single-task models to leverage multi-task learning information. We derive a closed-form solution for multi-task optimization in the context of linear models. Our analysis provides valuable insights by linking the multi-task learning performance to various model statistics such as raw data covariances, signal-generating hyperplanes, noise levels, as well as the size and number of datasets. We finally propose a consistent estimation of training and testing errors, thereby offering a robust foundation for hyperparameter optimization in multi-task regression scenarios. Experimental validations on both synthetic and real-world datasets in regression and multivariate time series forecasting demonstrate improvements on univariate models, incorporating our method into the training loss and thus leveraging multivariate information.

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) are probabilistic generative frameworks. They model discrete event sequences localized in continuous time. Generally, real-life events reveal descriptive information, known as marks. Marked TPPs model time and marks of the event together for practical relevance. Conditioned on past events, marked TPPs aim to learn the joint distribution of the time and the mark of the next event. For simplicity, conditionally independent TPP models assume time and marks are independent given event history. They factorize the conditional joint distribution of time and mark into the product of individual conditional distributions. This structural limitation in the design of TPP models hurt the predictive performance on entangled time and mark interactions. In this work, we model the conditional inter-dependence of time and mark to overcome the limitations of conditionally independent models. We construct a multivariate TPP conditioning the time distribution on the current event mark in addition to past events. Besides the conventional intensity-based models for conditional joint distribution, we also draw on flexible intensity-free TPP models from the literature. The proposed TPP models outperform conditionally independent and dependent models in standard prediction tasks. Our experimentation on various datasets with multiple evaluation metrics highlights the merit of the proposed approach.

A common approach to localize 3D human joints in a synchronized and calibrated multi-view setup consists of two-steps: (1) apply a 2D detector separately on each view to localize joints in 2D, and (2) perform robust triangulation on 2D detections from each view to acquire the 3D joint locations. However, in step 1, the 2D detector is limited to solving challenging cases which could potentially be better resolved in 3D, such as occlusions and oblique viewing angles, purely in 2D without leveraging any 3D information. Therefore, we propose the differentiable "epipolar transformer", which enables the 2D detector to leverage 3D-aware features to improve 2D pose estimation. The intuition is: given a 2D location p in the current view, we would like to first find its corresponding point p' in a neighboring view, and then combine the features at p' with the features at p, thus leading to a 3D-aware feature at p. Inspired by stereo matching, the epipolar transformer leverages epipolar constraints and feature matching to approximate the features at p'. Experiments on InterHand and Human3.6M show that our approach has consistent improvements over the baselines. Specifically, in the condition where no external data is used, our Human3.6M model trained with ResNet-50 backbone and image size 256 x 256 outperforms state-of-the-art by 4.23 mm and achieves MPJPE 26.9 mm.

Recently, diffusion-based methods for monocular 3D human pose estimation have achieved state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance by directly regressing the 3D joint coordinates from the 2D pose sequence. Although some methods decompose the task into bone length and bone direction prediction based on the human anatomical skeleton to explicitly incorporate more human body prior constraints, the performance of these methods is significantly lower than that of the SOTA diffusion-based methods. This can be attributed to the tree structure of the human skeleton. Direct application of the disentangled method could amplify the accumulation of hierarchical errors, propagating through each hierarchy. Meanwhile, the hierarchical information has not been fully explored by the previous methods. To address these problems, a Disentangled Diffusion-based 3D Human Pose Estimation method with Hierarchical Spatial and Temporal Denoiser is proposed, termed DDHPose. In our approach: (1) We disentangle the 3D pose and diffuse the bone length and bone direction during the forward process of the diffusion model to effectively model the human pose prior. A disentanglement loss is proposed to supervise diffusion model learning. (2) For the reverse process, we propose Hierarchical Spatial and Temporal Denoiser (HSTDenoiser) to improve the hierarchical modeling of each joint. Our HSTDenoiser comprises two components: the Hierarchical-Related Spatial Transformer (HRST) and the Hierarchical-Related Temporal Transformer (HRTT). HRST exploits joint spatial information and the influence of the parent joint on each joint for spatial modeling, while HRTT utilizes information from both the joint and its hierarchical adjacent joints to explore the hierarchical temporal correlations among joints. Code and models are available at https://github.com/Andyen512/DDHPose

We consider the problem of conformal prediction under covariate shift. Given labeled data from a source domain and unlabeled data from a covariate shifted target domain, we seek to construct prediction sets with valid marginal coverage in the target domain. Most existing methods require estimating the unknown likelihood ratio function, which can be prohibitive for high-dimensional data such as images. To address this challenge, we introduce the likelihood ratio regularized quantile regression (LR-QR) algorithm, which combines the pinball loss with a novel choice of regularization in order to construct a threshold function without directly estimating the unknown likelihood ratio. We show that the LR-QR method has coverage at the desired level in the target domain, up to a small error term that we can control. Our proofs draw on a novel analysis of coverage via stability bounds from learning theory. Our experiments demonstrate that the LR-QR algorithm outperforms existing methods on high-dimensional prediction tasks, including a regression task for the Communities and Crime dataset, an image classification task from the WILDS repository, and an LLM question-answering task on the MMLU benchmark.

In this paper, a novel Diffusion-based 3D Pose estimation (D3DP) method with Joint-wise reProjection-based Multi-hypothesis Aggregation (JPMA) is proposed for probabilistic 3D human pose estimation. On the one hand, D3DP generates multiple possible 3D pose hypotheses for a single 2D observation. It gradually diffuses the ground truth 3D poses to a random distribution, and learns a denoiser conditioned on 2D keypoints to recover the uncontaminated 3D poses. The proposed D3DP is compatible with existing 3D pose estimators and supports users to balance efficiency and accuracy during inference through two customizable parameters. On the other hand, JPMA is proposed to assemble multiple hypotheses generated by D3DP into a single 3D pose for practical use. It reprojects 3D pose hypotheses to the 2D camera plane, selects the best hypothesis joint-by-joint based on the reprojection errors, and combines the selected joints into the final pose. The proposed JPMA conducts aggregation at the joint level and makes use of the 2D prior information, both of which have been overlooked by previous approaches. Extensive experiments on Human3.6M and MPI-INF-3DHP datasets show that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art deterministic and probabilistic approaches by 1.5% and 8.9%, respectively. Code is available at https://github.com/paTRICK-swk/D3DP.

In this paper we construct an inferential procedure for Granger causality in high-dimensional non-stationary vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Our method does not require knowledge of the order of integration of the time series under consideration. We augment the VAR with at least as many lags as the suspected maximum order of integration, an approach which has been proven to be robust against the presence of unit roots in low dimensions. We prove that we can restrict the augmentation to only the variables of interest for the testing, thereby making the approach suitable for high dimensions. We combine this lag augmentation with a post-double-selection procedure in which a set of initial penalized regressions is performed to select the relevant variables for both the Granger causing and caused variables. We then establish uniform asymptotic normality of a second-stage regression involving only the selected variables. Finite sample simulations show good performance, an application to investigate the (predictive) causes and effects of economic uncertainty illustrates the need to allow for unknown orders of integration.

We propose a direct, regression-based approach to 2D human pose estimation from single images. We formulate the problem as a sequence prediction task, which we solve using a Transformer network. This network directly learns a regression mapping from images to the keypoint coordinates, without resorting to intermediate representations such as heatmaps. This approach avoids much of the complexity associated with heatmap-based approaches. To overcome the feature misalignment issues of previous regression-based methods, we propose an attention mechanism that adaptively attends to the features that are most relevant to the target keypoints, considerably improving the accuracy. Importantly, our framework is end-to-end differentiable, and naturally learns to exploit the dependencies between keypoints. Experiments on MS-COCO and MPII, two predominant pose-estimation datasets, demonstrate that our method significantly improves upon the state-of-the-art in regression-based pose estimation. More notably, ours is the first regression-based approach to perform favorably compared to the best heatmap-based pose estimation methods.

Standard methods for detecting discontinuities in conditional means are not applicable to outcomes that are complex, non-Euclidean objects like distributions, networks, or covariance matrices. This article develops a nonparametric test for jumps in conditional means when outcomes lie in a non-Euclidean metric space. Using local Fr\'echet regressionx2014which generalizes standard regression to metric-space valued datax2014the method estimates a mean path on either side of a candidate cutoff, extending existing k-sample tests to a flexible regression setting. Key theoretical contributions include a central limit theorem for the local estimator of the conditional Fr\'echet variance and the asymptotic validity and consistency of the proposed test. Simulations confirm nominal size control and robust power in finite samples. Two applications demonstrate the method's value by revealing effects invisible to scalar-based tests. First, I detect a sharp change in work-from-home compositions at Washington State's income threshold for non-compete enforceability during COVID-19, highlighting remote work's role as a bargaining margin. Second, I find that countries restructure their input-output networks after losing preferential US trade access. These findings underscore that analyzing regression functions within their native metric spaces can reveal structural discontinuities that scalar summaries would miss.

Pre-trained foundation models (FMs) have shown exceptional performance in univariate time series forecasting tasks. However, several practical challenges persist, including managing intricate dependencies among features and quantifying uncertainty in predictions. This study aims to tackle these critical limitations by introducing adapters; feature-space transformations that facilitate the effective use of pre-trained univariate time series FMs for multivariate tasks. Adapters operate by projecting multivariate inputs into a suitable latent space and applying the FM independently to each dimension. Inspired by the literature on representation learning and partially stochastic Bayesian neural networks, we present a range of adapters and optimization/inference strategies. Experiments conducted on both synthetic and real-world datasets confirm the efficacy of adapters, demonstrating substantial enhancements in forecasting accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to baseline methods. Our framework, AdaPTS, positions adapters as a modular, scalable, and effective solution for leveraging time series FMs in multivariate contexts, thereby promoting their wider adoption in real-world applications. We release the code at https://github.com/abenechehab/AdaPTS.

By leveraging temporal dependency in video sequences, multi-frame human pose estimation algorithms have demonstrated remarkable results in complicated situations, such as occlusion, motion blur, and video defocus. These algorithms are predominantly based on heatmaps, resulting in high computation and storage requirements per frame, which limits their flexibility and real-time application in video scenarios, particularly on edge devices. In this paper, we develop an efficient and effective video-based human pose regression method, which bypasses intermediate representations such as heatmaps and instead directly maps the input to the output joint coordinates. Despite the inherent spatial correlation among adjacent joints of the human pose, the temporal trajectory of each individual joint exhibits relative independence. In light of this, we propose a novel Decoupled Space-Time Aggregation network (DSTA) to separately capture the spatial contexts between adjacent joints and the temporal cues of each individual joint, thereby avoiding the conflation of spatiotemporal dimensions. Concretely, DSTA learns a dedicated feature token for each joint to facilitate the modeling of their spatiotemporal dependencies. With the proposed joint-wise local-awareness attention mechanism, our method is capable of efficiently and flexibly utilizing the spatial dependency of adjacent joints and the temporal dependency of each joint itself. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our method. Compared to previous regression-based single-frame human pose estimation methods, DSTA significantly enhances performance, achieving an 8.9 mAP improvement on PoseTrack2017. Furthermore, our approach either surpasses or is on par with the state-of-the-art heatmap-based multi-frame human pose estimation methods. Project page: https://github.com/zgspose/DSTA.

Given a set of K probability densities, we consider the multimarginal generative modeling problem of learning a joint distribution that recovers these densities as marginals. The structure of this joint distribution should identify multi-way correspondences among the prescribed marginals. We formalize an approach to this task within a generalization of the stochastic interpolant framework, leading to efficient learning algorithms built upon dynamical transport of measure. Our generative models are defined by velocity and score fields that can be characterized as the minimizers of simple quadratic objectives, and they are defined on a simplex that generalizes the time variable in the usual dynamical transport framework. The resulting transport on the simplex is influenced by all marginals, and we show that multi-way correspondences can be extracted. The identification of such correspondences has applications to style transfer, algorithmic fairness, and data decorruption. In addition, the multimarginal perspective enables an efficient algorithm for reducing the dynamical transport cost in the ordinary two-marginal setting. We demonstrate these capacities with several numerical examples.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

This paper introduces a novel human pose estimation approach using sparse inertial sensors, addressing the shortcomings of previous methods reliant on synthetic data. It leverages a diverse array of real inertial motion capture data from different skeleton formats to improve motion diversity and model generalization. This method features two innovative components: a pseudo-velocity regression model for dynamic motion capture with inertial sensors, and a part-based model dividing the body and sensor data into three regions, each focusing on their unique characteristics. The approach demonstrates superior performance over state-of-the-art models across five public datasets, notably reducing pose error by 19\% on the DIP-IMU dataset, thus representing a significant improvement in inertial sensor-based human pose estimation. Our codes are available at {https://github.com/dx118/dynaip}.

Recently, channel-independent methods have achieved state-of-the-art performance in multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting. Despite reducing overfitting risks, these methods miss potential opportunities in utilizing channel dependence for accurate predictions. We argue that there exist locally stationary lead-lag relationships between variates, i.e., some lagged variates may follow the leading indicators within a short time period. Exploiting such channel dependence is beneficial since leading indicators offer advance information that can be used to reduce the forecasting difficulty of the lagged variates. In this paper, we propose a new method named LIFT that first efficiently estimates leading indicators and their leading steps at each time step and then judiciously allows the lagged variates to utilize the advance information from leading indicators. LIFT plays as a plugin that can be seamlessly collaborated with arbitrary time series forecasting methods. Extensive experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate that LIFT improves the state-of-the-art methods by 5.5% in average forecasting performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-Quant/LIFT.

Automated model selection is often proposed to users to choose which machine learning model (or method) to apply to a given regression task. In this paper, we show that combining different regression models can yield better results than selecting a single ('best') regression model, and outline an efficient method that obtains optimally weighted convex linear combination from a heterogeneous set of regression models. More specifically, in this paper, a heuristic weight optimization, used in a preceding conference paper, is replaced by an exact optimization algorithm using convex quadratic programming. We prove convexity of the quadratic programming formulation for the straightforward formulation and for a formulation with weighted data points. The novel weight optimization is not only (more) exact but also more efficient. The methods we develop in this paper are implemented and made available via github-open source. They can be executed on commonly available hardware and offer a transparent and easy to interpret interface. The results indicate that the approach outperforms model selection methods on a range of data sets, including data sets with mixed variable type from drug discovery applications.

We propose a method for human pose estimation based on Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). The pose estimation is formulated as a DNN-based regression problem towards body joints. We present a cascade of such DNN regressors which results in high precision pose estimates. The approach has the advantage of reasoning about pose in a holistic fashion and has a simple but yet powerful formulation which capitalizes on recent advances in Deep Learning. We present a detailed empirical analysis with state-of-art or better performance on four academic benchmarks of diverse real-world images.

Monocular 3D human pose estimation (HPE) methods estimate the 3D positions of joints from individual images. Existing 3D HPE approaches often use the cropped image alone as input for their models. However, the relative depths of joints cannot be accurately estimated from cropped images without the corresponding camera intrinsics, which determine the perspective relationship between 3D objects and the cropped images. In this work, we introduce Perspective Encoding (PE) to encode the camera intrinsics of the cropped images. Moreover, since the human subject can appear anywhere within the original image, the perspective relationship between the 3D scene and the cropped image differs significantly, which complicates model fitting. Additionally, the further the human subject deviates from the image center, the greater the perspective distortions in the cropped image. To address these issues, we propose Perspective Rotation (PR), a transformation applied to the original image that centers the human subject, thereby reducing perspective distortions and alleviating the difficulty of model fitting. By incorporating PE and PR, we propose a novel 3D HPE framework, PersPose. Experimental results demonstrate that PersPose achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance on the 3DPW, MPI-INF-3DHP, and Human3.6M datasets. For example, on the in-the-wild dataset 3DPW, PersPose achieves an MPJPE of 60.1 mm, 7.54% lower than the previous SOTA approach. Code is available at: https://github.com/KenAdamsJoseph/PersPose.

Poor sitting posture can lead to various work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs). Office employees spend approximately 81.8% of their working time seated, and sedentary behavior can result in chronic diseases such as cervical spondylosis and cardiovascular diseases. To address these health concerns, we present SitPose, a sitting posture and sedentary detection system utilizing the latest Kinect depth camera. The system tracks 3D coordinates of bone joint points in real-time and calculates the angle values of related joints. We established a dataset containing six different sitting postures and one standing posture, totaling 33,409 data points, by recruiting 36 participants. We applied several state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms to the dataset and compared their performance in recognizing the sitting poses. Our results show that the ensemble learning model based on the soft voting mechanism achieves the highest F1 score of 98.1%. Finally, we deployed the SitPose system based on this ensemble model to encourage better sitting posture and to reduce sedentary habits.

Multi-speaker localization and tracking using microphone array recording is of importance in a wide range of applications. One of the challenges with multi-speaker tracking is to associate direction estimates with the correct speaker. Most existing association approaches rely on spatial or spectral information alone, leading to performance degradation when one of these information channels is partially known or missing. This paper studies a joint probability data association (JPDA)-based method that facilitates association based on joint spatial-spectral information. This is achieved by integrating speaker time-frequency (TF) masks, estimated based on spectral information, in the association probabilities calculation. An experimental study that tested the proposed method on recordings from the LOCATA challenge demonstrates the enhanced performance obtained by using joint spatial-spectral information in the association.

This paper introduces PoseLess, a novel framework for robot hand control that eliminates the need for explicit pose estimation by directly mapping 2D images to joint angles using projected representations. Our approach leverages synthetic training data generated through randomized joint configurations, enabling zero-shot generalization to real-world scenarios and cross-morphology transfer from robotic to human hands. By projecting visual inputs and employing a transformer-based decoder, PoseLess achieves robust, low-latency control while addressing challenges such as depth ambiguity and data scarcity. Experimental results demonstrate competitive performance in joint angle prediction accuracy without relying on any human-labelled dataset.

Given a matrix Ain R^{ntimes d} and a vector bin R^n, we consider the regression problem with ell_infty guarantees: finding a vector x'in R^d such that |x'-x^*|_infty leq epsilon{d}cdot |Ax^*-b|_2cdot |A^dagger| where x^*=argmin_{xin R^d}|Ax-b|_2. One popular approach for solving such ell_2 regression problem is via sketching: picking a structured random matrix Sin R^{mtimes n} with mll n and SA can be quickly computed, solve the ``sketched'' regression problem argmin_{xin R^d} |SAx-Sb|_2. In this paper, we show that in order to obtain such ell_infty guarantee for ell_2 regression, one has to use sketching matrices that are dense. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first user case in which dense sketching matrices are necessary. On the algorithmic side, we prove that there exists a distribution of dense sketching matrices with m=epsilon^{-2}dlog^3(n/delta) such that solving the sketched regression problem gives the ell_infty guarantee, with probability at least 1-delta. Moreover, the matrix SA can be computed in time O(ndlog n). Our row count is nearly-optimal up to logarithmic factors, and significantly improves the result in [Price, Song and Woodruff, ICALP'17], in which a super-linear in d rows, m=Omega(epsilon^{-2}d^{1+gamma}) for gamma=Theta(frac{loglog n{log d}}) is required. We also develop a novel analytical framework for ell_infty guarantee regression that utilizes the Oblivious Coordinate-wise Embedding (OCE) property introduced in [Song and Yu, ICML'21]. Our analysis is arguably much simpler and more general than [Price, Song and Woodruff, ICALP'17], and it extends to dense sketches for tensor product of vectors.

Model-based human pose estimation is currently approached through two different paradigms. Optimization-based methods fit a parametric body model to 2D observations in an iterative manner, leading to accurate image-model alignments, but are often slow and sensitive to the initialization. In contrast, regression-based methods, that use a deep network to directly estimate the model parameters from pixels, tend to provide reasonable, but not pixel accurate, results while requiring huge amounts of supervision. In this work, instead of investigating which approach is better, our key insight is that the two paradigms can form a strong collaboration. A reasonable, directly regressed estimate from the network can initialize the iterative optimization making the fitting faster and more accurate. Similarly, a pixel accurate fit from iterative optimization can act as strong supervision for the network. This is the core of our proposed approach SPIN (SMPL oPtimization IN the loop). The deep network initializes an iterative optimization routine that fits the body model to 2D joints within the training loop, and the fitted estimate is subsequently used to supervise the network. Our approach is self-improving by nature, since better network estimates can lead the optimization to better solutions, while more accurate optimization fits provide better supervision for the network. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in different settings, where 3D ground truth is scarce, or not available, and we consistently outperform the state-of-the-art model-based pose estimation approaches by significant margins. The project website with videos, results, and code can be found at https://seas.upenn.edu/~nkolot/projects/spin.

Multi-modal trajectory forecasting methods commonly evaluate using single-agent metrics (marginal metrics), such as minimum Average Displacement Error (ADE) and Final Displacement Error (FDE), which fail to capture joint performance of multiple interacting agents. Only focusing on marginal metrics can lead to unnatural predictions, such as colliding trajectories or diverging trajectories for people who are clearly walking together as a group. Consequently, methods optimized for marginal metrics lead to overly-optimistic estimations of performance, which is detrimental to progress in trajectory forecasting research. In response to the limitations of marginal metrics, we present the first comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art (SOTA) trajectory forecasting methods with respect to multi-agent metrics (joint metrics): JADE, JFDE, and collision rate. We demonstrate the importance of joint metrics as opposed to marginal metrics with quantitative evidence and qualitative examples drawn from the ETH / UCY and Stanford Drone datasets. We introduce a new loss function incorporating joint metrics that, when applied to a SOTA trajectory forecasting method, achieves a 7% improvement in JADE / JFDE on the ETH / UCY datasets with respect to the previous SOTA. Our results also indicate that optimizing for joint metrics naturally leads to an improvement in interaction modeling, as evidenced by a 16% decrease in mean collision rate on the ETH / UCY datasets with respect to the previous SOTA.

We propose a penalized nonparametric approach to estimating the quantile regression process (QRP) in a nonseparable model using rectifier quadratic unit (ReQU) activated deep neural networks and introduce a novel penalty function to enforce non-crossing of quantile regression curves. We establish the non-asymptotic excess risk bounds for the estimated QRP and derive the mean integrated squared error for the estimated QRP under mild smoothness and regularity conditions. To establish these non-asymptotic risk and estimation error bounds, we also develop a new error bound for approximating C^s smooth functions with s >0 and their derivatives using ReQU activated neural networks. This is a new approximation result for ReQU networks and is of independent interest and may be useful in other problems. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed method is competitive with or outperforms two existing methods, including methods using reproducing kernels and random forests, for nonparametric quantile regression.

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We first show that the marginal coverage guarantee of conformal prediction holds on imputed data for any missingness distribution and almost all imputation functions. However, we emphasize that the average coverage varies depending on the pattern of missing values: conformal methods tend to construct prediction intervals that under-cover the response conditionally to some missing patterns. This motivates our novel generalized conformalized quantile regression framework, missing data augmentation, which yields prediction intervals that are valid conditionally to the patterns of missing values, despite their exponential number. We then show that a universally consistent quantile regression algorithm trained on the imputed data is Bayes optimal for the pinball risk, thus achieving valid coverage conditionally to any given data point. Moreover, we examine the case of a linear model, which demonstrates the importance of our proposal in overcoming the heteroskedasticity induced by missing values. Using synthetic and data from critical care, we corroborate our theory and report improved performance of our methods.

Monocular 3D human pose estimation remains a challenging task due to inherent depth ambiguities and occlusions. Compared to traditional methods based on Transformers or Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), recent diffusion-based approaches have shown superior performance, leveraging their probabilistic nature and high-fidelity generation capabilities. However, these methods often fail to account for the spatial and temporal correlations across predicted frames, resulting in limited temporal consistency and inferior accuracy in predicted 3D pose sequences. To address these shortcomings, this paper proposes StarPose, an autoregressive diffusion framework that effectively incorporates historical 3D pose predictions and spatial-temporal physical guidance to significantly enhance both the accuracy and temporal coherence of pose predictions. Unlike existing approaches, StarPose models the 2D-to-3D pose mapping as an autoregressive diffusion process. By synergically integrating previously predicted 3D poses with 2D pose inputs via a Historical Pose Integration Module (HPIM), the framework generates rich and informative historical pose embeddings that guide subsequent denoising steps, ensuring temporally consistent predictions. In addition, a fully plug-and-play Spatial-Temporal Physical Guidance (STPG) mechanism is tailored to refine the denoising process in an iterative manner, which further enforces spatial anatomical plausibility and temporal motion dynamics, rendering robust and realistic pose estimates. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that StarPose outperforms state-of-the-art methods, achieving superior accuracy and temporal consistency in 3D human pose estimation. Code is available at https://github.com/wileychan/StarPose.

We study the class of location-scale or heteroscedastic noise models (LSNMs), in which the effect Y can be written as a function of the cause X and a noise source N independent of X, which may be scaled by a positive function g over the cause, i.e., Y = f(X) + g(X)N. Despite the generality of the model class, we show the causal direction is identifiable up to some pathological cases. To empirically validate these theoretical findings, we propose two estimators for LSNMs: an estimator based on (non-linear) feature maps, and one based on neural networks. Both model the conditional distribution of Y given X as a Gaussian parameterized by its natural parameters. When the feature maps are correctly specified, we prove that our estimator is jointly concave, and a consistent estimator for the cause-effect identification task. Although the the neural network does not inherit those guarantees, it can fit functions of arbitrary complexity, and reaches state-of-the-art performance across benchmarks.

Mixture of experts (MoE) are a popular class of statistical and machine learning models that have gained attention over the years due to their flexibility and efficiency. In this work, we consider Gaussian-gated localized MoE (GLoME) and block-diagonal covariance localized MoE (BLoME) regression models to present nonlinear relationships in heterogeneous data with potential hidden graph-structured interactions between high-dimensional predictors. These models pose difficult statistical estimation and model selection questions, both from a computational and theoretical perspective. This paper is devoted to the study of the problem of model selection among a collection of GLoME or BLoME models characterized by the number of mixture components, the complexity of Gaussian mean experts, and the hidden block-diagonal structures of the covariance matrices, in a penalized maximum likelihood estimation framework. In particular, we establish non-asymptotic risk bounds that take the form of weak oracle inequalities, provided that lower bounds for the penalties hold. The good empirical behavior of our models is then demonstrated on synthetic and real datasets.

Accurate hand pose estimation is vital in robotics, advancing dexterous manipulation in human-computer interaction. Toward this goal, this paper presents ReJSHand (which stands for Refined Joint and Skeleton Features), a cutting-edge network formulated for real-time hand pose estimation and mesh reconstruction. The proposed framework is designed to accurately predict 3D hand gestures under real-time constraints, which is essential for systems that demand agile and responsive hand motion tracking. The network's design prioritizes computational efficiency without compromising accuracy, a prerequisite for instantaneous robotic interactions. Specifically, ReJSHand comprises a 2D keypoint generator, a 3D keypoint generator, an expansion block, and a feature interaction block for meticulously reconstructing 3D hand poses from 2D imagery. In addition, the multi-head self-attention mechanism and a coordinate attention layer enhance feature representation, streamlining the creation of hand mesh vertices through sophisticated feature mapping and linear transformation. Regarding performance, comprehensive evaluations on the FreiHand dataset demonstrate ReJSHand's computational prowess. It achieves a frame rate of 72 frames per second while maintaining a PA-MPJPE (Position-Accurate Mean Per Joint Position Error) of 6.3 mm and a PA-MPVPE (Position-Accurate Mean Per Vertex Position Error) of 6.4 mm. Moreover, our model reaches scores of 0.756 for F@05 and 0.984 for F@15, surpassing modern pipelines and solidifying its position at the forefront of robotic hand pose estimators. To facilitate future studies, we provide our source code at ~https://github.com/daishipeng/ReJSHand.

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among predictor variables in a flexible data-driven manner and for accounting for spatio-temporal variation that is not explained by observable predictor variables. We also show how estimation and prediction can be done in a computationally efficient manner. In an application to a large U.S. mortgage credit risk data set, we find that both predictive default probabilities for individual loans and predictive loan portfolio loss distributions obtained with our novel approach are more accurate compared to conventional independent linear hazard models and also linear spatio-temporal models. Using interpretability tools for machine learning models, we find that the likely reasons for this outperformance are strong interaction and non-linear effects in the predictor variables and the presence of large spatio-temporal frailty effects.

We consider the problem of linear estimation, and establish an extension of the Gauss-Markov theorem, in which the bias operator is allowed to be non-zero but bounded with respect to a matrix norm of Schatten type. We derive simple and explicit formulas for the optimal estimator in the cases of Nuclear and Spectral norms (with the Frobenius case recovering ridge regression). Additionally, we analytically derive the generalization error in multiple random matrix ensembles, and compare with Ridge regression. Finally, we conduct an extensive simulation study, in which we show that the cross-validated Nuclear and Spectral regressors can outperform Ridge in several circumstances.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

We study regressions with multiple treatments and a set of controls that is flexible enough to purge omitted variable bias. We show that these regressions generally fail to estimate convex averages of heterogeneous treatment effects -- instead, estimates of each treatment's effect are contaminated by non-convex averages of the effects of other treatments. We discuss three estimation approaches that avoid such contamination bias, including the targeting of easiest-to-estimate weighted average effects. A re-analysis of nine empirical applications finds economically and statistically meaningful contamination bias in observational studies; contamination bias in experimental studies is more limited due to smaller variability in propensity scores.

2D-to-3D human pose lifting is fundamental for 3D human pose estimation (HPE), for which graph convolutional networks (GCNs) have proven inherently suitable for modeling the human skeletal topology. However, the current GCN-based 3D HPE methods update the node features by aggregating their neighbors' information without considering the interaction of joints in different joint synergies. Although some studies have proposed importing limb information to learn the movement patterns, the latent synergies among joints, such as maintaining balance are seldom investigated. We propose the Hop-wise GraphFormer with Intragroup Joint Refinement (HopFIR) architecture to tackle the 3D HPE problem. HopFIR mainly consists of a novel hop-wise GraphFormer (HGF) module and an intragroup joint refinement (IJR) module. The HGF module groups the joints by k-hop neighbors and applies a hopwise transformer-like attention mechanism to these groups to discover latent joint synergies. The IJR module leverages the prior limb information for peripheral joint refinement. Extensive experimental results show that HopFIR outperforms the SOTA methods by a large margin, with a mean per-joint position error (MPJPE) on the Human3.6M dataset of 32.67 mm. We also demonstrate that the state-of-the-art GCN-based methods can benefit from the proposed hop-wise attention mechanism with a significant improvement in performance: SemGCN and MGCN are improved by 8.9% and 4.5%, respectively.

The detection of human body and its related parts (e.g., face, head or hands) have been intensively studied and greatly improved since the breakthrough of deep CNNs. However, most of these detectors are trained independently, making it a challenging task to associate detected body parts with people. This paper focuses on the problem of joint detection of human body and its corresponding parts. Specifically, we propose a novel extended object representation that integrates the center location offsets of body or its parts, and construct a dense single-stage anchor-based Body-Part Joint Detector (BPJDet). Body-part associations in BPJDet are embedded into the unified representation which contains both the semantic and geometric information. Therefore, BPJDet does not suffer from error-prone association post-matching, and has a better accuracy-speed trade-off. Furthermore, BPJDet can be seamlessly generalized to jointly detect any body part. To verify the effectiveness and superiority of our method, we conduct extensive experiments on the CityPersons, CrowdHuman and BodyHands datasets. The proposed BPJDet detector achieves state-of-the-art association performance on these three benchmarks while maintains high accuracy of detection. Code is in https://github.com/hnuzhy/BPJDet.

Should prediction models always deliver a prediction? In the pursuit of maximum predictive performance, critical considerations of reliability and fairness are often overshadowed, particularly when it comes to the role of uncertainty. Selective regression, also known as the "reject option," allows models to abstain from predictions in cases of considerable uncertainty. Initially proposed seven decades ago, approaches to selective regression have mostly focused on distribution-based proxies for measuring uncertainty, particularly conditional variance. However, this focus neglects the significant influence of model-specific biases on a model's performance. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to selective regression by leveraging conformal prediction, which provides grounded confidence measures for individual predictions based on model-specific biases. In addition, we propose a standardized evaluation framework to allow proper comparison of selective regression approaches. Via an extensive experimental approach, we demonstrate how our proposed approach, conformalized selective regression, demonstrates an advantage over multiple state-of-the-art baselines.

In a recent paper Juodis and Reese (2022) (JR) show that the application of the CD test proposed by Pesaran (2004) to residuals from panels with latent factors results in over-rejection. They propose a randomized test statistic to correct for over-rejection, and add a screening component to achieve power. This paper considers the same problem but from a different perspective, and shows that the standard CD test remains valid if the latent factors are weak in the sense the strength is less than half. In the case where latent factors are strong, we propose a bias-corrected version, CD*, which is shown to be asymptotically standard normal under the null of error cross-sectional independence and have power against network type alternatives. This result is shown to hold for pure latent factor models as well as for panel regression models with latent factors. The case where the errors are serially correlated is also considered. Small sample properties of the CD* test are investigated by Monte Carlo experiments and are shown to have the correct size for strong and weak factors as well as for Gaussian and non-Gaussian errors. In contrast, it is found that JR's test tends to over-reject in the case of panels with non-Gaussian errors, and has low power against spatial network alternatives. In an empirical application, using the CD* test, it is shown that there remains spatial error dependence in a panel data model for real house price changes across 377 Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the U.S., even after the effects of latent factors are filtered out.

The Shapley value is one of the most widely used measures of feature importance partly as it measures a feature's average effect on a model's prediction. We introduce joint Shapley values, which directly extend Shapley's axioms and intuitions: joint Shapley values measure a set of features' average contribution to a model's prediction. We prove the uniqueness of joint Shapley values, for any order of explanation. Results for games show that joint Shapley values present different insights from existing interaction indices, which assess the effect of a feature within a set of features. The joint Shapley values provide intuitive results in ML attribution problems. With binary features, we present a presence-adjusted global value that is more consistent with local intuitions than the usual approach.

Powerful priors allow us to perform inference with insufficient information. In this paper, we propose an autoregressive prior for 3D shapes to solve multimodal 3D tasks such as shape completion, reconstruction, and generation. We model the distribution over 3D shapes as a non-sequential autoregressive distribution over a discretized, low-dimensional, symbolic grid-like latent representation of 3D shapes. This enables us to represent distributions over 3D shapes conditioned on information from an arbitrary set of spatially anchored query locations and thus perform shape completion in such arbitrary settings (e.g., generating a complete chair given only a view of the back leg). We also show that the learned autoregressive prior can be leveraged for conditional tasks such as single-view reconstruction and language-based generation. This is achieved by learning task-specific naive conditionals which can be approximated by light-weight models trained on minimal paired data. We validate the effectiveness of the proposed method using both quantitative and qualitative evaluation and show that the proposed method outperforms the specialized state-of-the-art methods trained for individual tasks. The project page with code and video visualizations can be found at https://yccyenchicheng.github.io/AutoSDF/.

We introduce Brain-JEPA, a brain dynamics foundation model with the Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA). This pioneering model achieves state-of-the-art performance in demographic prediction, disease diagnosis/prognosis, and trait prediction through fine-tuning. Furthermore, it excels in off-the-shelf evaluations (e.g., linear probing) and demonstrates superior generalizability across different ethnic groups, surpassing the previous large model for brain activity significantly. Brain-JEPA incorporates two innovative techniques: Brain Gradient Positioning and Spatiotemporal Masking. Brain Gradient Positioning introduces a functional coordinate system for brain functional parcellation, enhancing the positional encoding of different Regions of Interest (ROIs). Spatiotemporal Masking, tailored to the unique characteristics of fMRI data, addresses the challenge of heterogeneous time-series patches. These methodologies enhance model performance and advance our understanding of the neural circuits underlying cognition. Overall, Brain-JEPA is paving the way to address pivotal questions of building brain functional coordinate system and masking brain activity at the AI-neuroscience interface, and setting a potentially new paradigm in brain activity analysis through downstream adaptation.

We propose a novel Bayesian inference framework for distributed differentially private linear regression. We consider a distributed setting where multiple parties hold parts of the data and share certain summary statistics of their portions in privacy-preserving noise. We develop a novel generative statistical model for privately shared statistics, which exploits a useful distributional relation between the summary statistics of linear regression. Bayesian estimation of the regression coefficients is conducted mainly using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, while we also provide a fast version to perform Bayesian estimation in one iteration. The proposed methods have computational advantages over their competitors. We provide numerical results on both real and simulated data, which demonstrate that the proposed algorithms provide well-rounded estimation and prediction.

In this paper, we present a regression-based pose recognition method using cascade Transformers. One way to categorize the existing approaches in this domain is to separate them into 1). heatmap-based and 2). regression-based. In general, heatmap-based methods achieve higher accuracy but are subject to various heuristic designs (not end-to-end mostly), whereas regression-based approaches attain relatively lower accuracy but they have less intermediate non-differentiable steps. Here we utilize the encoder-decoder structure in Transformers to perform regression-based person and keypoint detection that is general-purpose and requires less heuristic design compared with the existing approaches. We demonstrate the keypoint hypothesis (query) refinement process across different self-attention layers to reveal the recursive self-attention mechanism in Transformers. In the experiments, we report competitive results for pose recognition when compared with the competing regression-based methods.

Inferring the 3D structure underlying a set of multi-view images typically requires solving two co-dependent tasks -- accurate 3D reconstruction requires precise camera poses, and predicting camera poses relies on (implicitly or explicitly) modeling the underlying 3D. The classical framework of analysis by synthesis casts this inference as a joint optimization seeking to explain the observed pixels, and recent instantiations learn expressive 3D representations (e.g., Neural Fields) with gradient-descent-based pose refinement of initial pose estimates. However, given a sparse set of observed views, the observations may not provide sufficient direct evidence to obtain complete and accurate 3D. Moreover, large errors in pose estimation may not be easily corrected and can further degrade the inferred 3D. To allow robust 3D reconstruction and pose estimation in this challenging setup, we propose SparseAGS, a method that adapts this analysis-by-synthesis approach by: a) including novel-view-synthesis-based generative priors in conjunction with photometric objectives to improve the quality of the inferred 3D, and b) explicitly reasoning about outliers and using a discrete search with a continuous optimization-based strategy to correct them. We validate our framework across real-world and synthetic datasets in combination with several off-the-shelf pose estimation systems as initialization. We find that it significantly improves the base systems' pose accuracy while yielding high-quality 3D reconstructions that outperform the results from current multi-view reconstruction baselines.

We present a novel method for recovering world-grounded human motion from monocular video. The main challenge lies in the ambiguity of defining the world coordinate system, which varies between sequences. Previous approaches attempt to alleviate this issue by predicting relative motion in an autoregressive manner, but are prone to accumulating errors. Instead, we propose estimating human poses in a novel Gravity-View (GV) coordinate system, which is defined by the world gravity and the camera view direction. The proposed GV system is naturally gravity-aligned and uniquely defined for each video frame, largely reducing the ambiguity of learning image-pose mapping. The estimated poses can be transformed back to the world coordinate system using camera rotations, forming a global motion sequence. Additionally, the per-frame estimation avoids error accumulation in the autoregressive methods. Experiments on in-the-wild benchmarks demonstrate that our method recovers more realistic motion in both the camera space and world-grounded settings, outperforming state-of-the-art methods in both accuracy and speed. The code is available at https://zju3dv.github.io/gvhmr/.

Virtual sensing techniques allow for inferring signals at new unmonitored locations by exploiting spatio-temporal measurements coming from physical sensors at different locations. However, as the sensor coverage becomes sparse due to costs or other constraints, physical proximity cannot be used to support interpolation. In this paper, we overcome this challenge by leveraging dependencies between the target variable and a set of correlated variables (covariates) that can frequently be associated with each location of interest. From this viewpoint, covariates provide partial observability, and the problem consists of inferring values for unobserved channels by exploiting observations at other locations to learn how such variables can correlate. We introduce a novel graph-based methodology to exploit such relationships and design a graph deep learning architecture, named GgNet, implementing the framework. The proposed approach relies on propagating information over a nested graph structure that is used to learn dependencies between variables as well as locations. GgNet is extensively evaluated under different virtual sensing scenarios, demonstrating higher reconstruction accuracy compared to the state-of-the-art.

The paper studies the linear model for Bitcoin price which includes regression features based on Bitcoin currency statistics, mining processes, Google search trends, Wikipedia pages visits. The pattern of deviation of regression model prediction from real prices is simpler comparing to price time series. It is assumed that this pattern can be predicted by an experienced expert. In such a way, using the combination of the regression model and expert correction, one can receive better results than with either regression model or expert opinion only. It is shown that Bayesian approach makes it possible to utilize the probabilistic approach using distributions with fat tails and take into account the outliers in Bitcoin price time series.

Estimating robot pose from RGB images is a crucial problem in computer vision and robotics. While previous methods have achieved promising performance, most of them presume full knowledge of robot internal states, e.g. ground-truth robot joint angles. However, this assumption is not always valid in practical situations. In real-world applications such as multi-robot collaboration or human-robot interaction, the robot joint states might not be shared or could be unreliable. On the other hand, existing approaches that estimate robot pose without joint state priors suffer from heavy computation burdens and thus cannot support real-time applications. This work introduces an efficient framework for real-time robot pose estimation from RGB images without requiring known robot states. Our method estimates camera-to-robot rotation, robot state parameters, keypoint locations, and root depth, employing a neural network module for each task to facilitate learning and sim-to-real transfer. Notably, it achieves inference in a single feed-forward pass without iterative optimization. Our approach offers a 12-time speed increase with state-of-the-art accuracy, enabling real-time holistic robot pose estimation for the first time. Code and models are available at https://github.com/Oliverbansk/Holistic-Robot-Pose-Estimation.

Covariates provide valuable information on external factors that influence time series and are critical in many real-world time series forecasting tasks. For example, in retail, covariates may indicate promotions or peak dates such as holiday seasons that heavily influence demand forecasts. Recent advances in pretraining large language model architectures for time series forecasting have led to highly accurate forecasters. However, the majority of these models do not readily use covariates as they are often specific to a certain task or domain. This paper introduces a new method to incorporate covariates into pretrained time series forecasting models. Our proposed approach incorporates covariate information into pretrained forecasting models through modular blocks that inject past and future covariate information, without necessarily modifying the pretrained model in consideration. In order to evaluate our approach, we introduce a benchmark composed of 32 different synthetic datasets with varying dynamics to evaluate the effectivity of forecasting models with covariates. Extensive evaluations on both synthetic and real datasets show that our approach effectively incorporates covariate information into pretrained models, outperforming existing baselines.

The 3D Human Pose Estimation (3D HPE) task uses 2D images or videos to predict human joint coordinates in 3D space. Despite recent advancements in deep learning-based methods, they mostly ignore the capability of coupling accessible texts and naturally feasible knowledge of humans, missing out on valuable implicit supervision to guide the 3D HPE task. Moreover, previous efforts often study this task from the perspective of the whole human body, neglecting fine-grained guidance hidden in different body parts. To this end, we present a new Fine-Grained Prompt-Driven Denoiser based on a diffusion model for 3D HPE, named FinePOSE. It consists of three core blocks enhancing the reverse process of the diffusion model: (1) Fine-grained Part-aware Prompt learning (FPP) block constructs fine-grained part-aware prompts via coupling accessible texts and naturally feasible knowledge of body parts with learnable prompts to model implicit guidance. (2) Fine-grained Prompt-pose Communication (FPC) block establishes fine-grained communications between learned part-aware prompts and poses to improve the denoising quality. (3) Prompt-driven Timestamp Stylization (PTS) block integrates learned prompt embedding and temporal information related to the noise level to enable adaptive adjustment at each denoising step. Extensive experiments on public single-human pose estimation datasets show that FinePOSE outperforms state-of-the-art methods. We further extend FinePOSE to multi-human pose estimation. Achieving 34.3mm average MPJPE on the EgoHumans dataset demonstrates the potential of FinePOSE to deal with complex multi-human scenarios. Code is available at https://github.com/PKU-ICST-MIPL/FinePOSE_CVPR2024.

2D keypoints are commonly used as an additional cue to refine estimated 3D human meshes. Current methods optimize the pose and shape parameters with a reprojection loss on the provided 2D keypoints. Such an approach, while simple and intuitive, has limited effectiveness because the optimal solution is hard to find in ambiguous parameter space and may sacrifice depth. Additionally, divergent gradients from distal joints complicate and deviate the refinement of proximal joints in the kinematic chain. To address these, we introduce Kinematic-Tree Rotation (KITRO), a novel mesh refinement strategy that explicitly models depth and human kinematic-tree structure. KITRO treats refinement from a bone-wise perspective. Unlike previous methods which perform gradient-based optimizations, our method calculates bone directions in closed form. By accounting for the 2D pose, bone length, and parent joint's depth, the calculation results in two possible directions for each child joint. We then use a decision tree to trace binary choices for all bones along the human skeleton's kinematic-tree to select the most probable hypothesis. Our experiments across various datasets and baseline models demonstrate that KITRO significantly improves 3D joint estimation accuracy and achieves an ideal 2D fit simultaneously. Our code available at: https://github.com/MartaYang/KITRO.

We present MotionDiffuser, a diffusion based representation for the joint distribution of future trajectories over multiple agents. Such representation has several key advantages: first, our model learns a highly multimodal distribution that captures diverse future outcomes. Second, the simple predictor design requires only a single L2 loss training objective, and does not depend on trajectory anchors. Third, our model is capable of learning the joint distribution for the motion of multiple agents in a permutation-invariant manner. Furthermore, we utilize a compressed trajectory representation via PCA, which improves model performance and allows for efficient computation of the exact sample log probability. Subsequently, we propose a general constrained sampling framework that enables controlled trajectory sampling based on differentiable cost functions. This strategy enables a host of applications such as enforcing rules and physical priors, or creating tailored simulation scenarios. MotionDiffuser can be combined with existing backbone architectures to achieve top motion forecasting results. We obtain state-of-the-art results for multi-agent motion prediction on the Waymo Open Motion Dataset.

We study the connection between multicalibration and boosting for squared error regression. First we prove a useful characterization of multicalibration in terms of a ``swap regret'' like condition on squared error. Using this characterization, we give an exceedingly simple algorithm that can be analyzed both as a boosting algorithm for regression and as a multicalibration algorithm for a class H that makes use only of a standard squared error regression oracle for H. We give a weak learning assumption on H that ensures convergence to Bayes optimality without the need to make any realizability assumptions -- giving us an agnostic boosting algorithm for regression. We then show that our weak learning assumption on H is both necessary and sufficient for multicalibration with respect to H to imply Bayes optimality. We also show that if H satisfies our weak learning condition relative to another class C then multicalibration with respect to H implies multicalibration with respect to C. Finally we investigate the empirical performance of our algorithm experimentally using an open source implementation that we make available. Our code repository can be found at https://github.com/Declancharrison/Level-Set-Boosting.

In keypoint estimation tasks such as human pose estimation, heatmap-based regression is the dominant approach despite possessing notable drawbacks: heatmaps intrinsically suffer from quantization error and require excessive computation to generate and post-process. Motivated to find a more efficient solution, we propose to model individual keypoints and sets of spatially related keypoints (i.e., poses) as objects within a dense single-stage anchor-based detection framework. Hence, we call our method KAPAO (pronounced "Ka-Pow"), for Keypoints And Poses As Objects. KAPAO is applied to the problem of single-stage multi-person human pose estimation by simultaneously detecting human pose and keypoint objects and fusing the detections to exploit the strengths of both object representations. In experiments, we observe that KAPAO is faster and more accurate than previous methods, which suffer greatly from heatmap post-processing. The accuracy-speed trade-off is especially favourable in the practical setting when not using test-time augmentation. Source code: https://github.com/wmcnally/kapao.

In location estimation, we are given n samples from a known distribution f shifted by an unknown translation lambda, and want to estimate lambda as precisely as possible. Asymptotically, the maximum likelihood estimate achieves the Cram\'er-Rao bound of error mathcal N(0, 1{nmathcal I}), where mathcal I is the Fisher information of f. However, the n required for convergence depends on f, and may be arbitrarily large. We build on the theory using smoothed estimators to bound the error for finite n in terms of mathcal I_r, the Fisher information of the r-smoothed distribution. As n to infty, r to 0 at an explicit rate and this converges to the Cram\'er-Rao bound. We (1) improve the prior work for 1-dimensional f to converge for constant failure probability in addition to high probability, and (2) extend the theory to high-dimensional distributions. In the process, we prove a new bound on the norm of a high-dimensional random variable whose 1-dimensional projections are subgamma, which may be of independent interest.

Conformal prediction (CP) for regression can be challenging, especially when the output distribution is heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed. Some of the issues can be addressed by estimating a distribution over the output, but in reality, such approaches can be sensitive to estimation error and yield unstable intervals.~Here, we circumvent the challenges by converting regression to a classification problem and then use CP for classification to obtain CP sets for regression.~To preserve the ordering of the continuous-output space, we design a new loss function and make necessary modifications to the CP classification techniques.~Empirical results on many benchmarks shows that this simple approach gives surprisingly good results on many practical problems.

Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) is a lifetime disease that arises in children. Accurate estimation of Cobb angles of the scoliosis is essential for clinicians to make diagnosis and treatment decisions. The Cobb angles are measured according to the vertebrae landmarks. Existing regression-based methods for the vertebra landmark detection typically suffer from large dense mapping parameters and inaccurate landmark localization. The segmentation-based methods tend to predict connected or corrupted vertebra masks. In this paper, we propose a novel vertebra-focused landmark detection method. Our model first localizes the vertebra centers, based on which it then traces the four corner landmarks of the vertebra through the learned corner offset. In this way, our method is able to keep the order of the landmarks. The comparison results demonstrate the merits of our method in both Cobb angle measurement and landmark detection on low-contrast and ambiguous X-ray images. Code is available at: https://github.com/yijingru/Vertebra-Landmark-Detection.

In our era of enormous neural networks, empirical progress has been driven by the philosophy that more is better. Recent deep learning practice has found repeatedly that larger model size, more data, and more computation (resulting in lower training loss) improves performance. In this paper, we give theoretical backing to these empirical observations by showing that these three properties hold in random feature (RF) regression, a class of models equivalent to shallow networks with only the last layer trained. Concretely, we first show that the test risk of RF regression decreases monotonically with both the number of features and the number of samples, provided the ridge penalty is tuned optimally. In particular, this implies that infinite width RF architectures are preferable to those of any finite width. We then proceed to demonstrate that, for a large class of tasks characterized by powerlaw eigenstructure, training to near-zero training loss is obligatory: near-optimal performance can only be achieved when the training error is much smaller than the test error. Grounding our theory in real-world data, we find empirically that standard computer vision tasks with convolutional neural tangent kernels clearly fall into this class. Taken together, our results tell a simple, testable story of the benefits of overparameterization, overfitting, and more data in random feature models.

Pose estimation has promised to impact healthcare by enabling more practical methods to quantify nuances of human movement and biomechanics. However, despite the inherent connection between pose estimation and biomechanics, these disciplines have largely remained disparate. For example, most current pose estimation benchmarks use metrics such as Mean Per Joint Position Error, Percentage of Correct Keypoints, or mean Average Precision to assess performance, without quantifying kinematic and physiological correctness - key aspects for biomechanics. To alleviate this challenge, we develop OpenCapBench to offer an easy-to-use unified benchmark to assess common tasks in human pose estimation, evaluated under physiological constraints. OpenCapBench computes consistent kinematic metrics through joints angles provided by an open-source musculoskeletal modeling software (OpenSim). Through OpenCapBench, we demonstrate that current pose estimation models use keypoints that are too sparse for accurate biomechanics analysis. To mitigate this challenge, we introduce SynthPose, a new approach that enables finetuning of pre-trained 2D human pose models to predict an arbitrarily denser set of keypoints for accurate kinematic analysis through the use of synthetic data. Incorporating such finetuning on synthetic data of prior models leads to twofold reduced joint angle errors. Moreover, OpenCapBench allows users to benchmark their own developed models on our clinically relevant cohort. Overall, OpenCapBench bridges the computer vision and biomechanics communities, aiming to drive simultaneous advances in both areas.

We present a novel method for precise 3D object localization in single images from a single calibrated camera using only 2D labels. No expensive 3D labels are needed. Thus, instead of using 3D labels, our model is trained with easy-to-annotate 2D labels along with the physical knowledge of the object's motion. Given this information, the model can infer the latent third dimension, even though it has never seen this information during training. Our method is evaluated on both synthetic and real-world datasets, and we are able to achieve a mean distance error of just 6 cm in our experiments on real data. The results indicate the method's potential as a step towards learning 3D object location estimation, where collecting 3D data for training is not feasible.

Absolute Pose Regression (APR) methods use deep neural networks to directly regress camera poses from RGB images. However, the predominant APR architectures only rely on 2D operations during inference, resulting in limited accuracy of pose estimation due to the lack of 3D geometry constraints or priors. In this work, we propose a test-time refinement pipeline that leverages implicit geometric constraints using a robust feature field to enhance the ability of APR methods to use 3D information during inference. We also introduce a novel Neural Feature Synthesizer (NeFeS) model, which encodes 3D geometric features during training and directly renders dense novel view features at test time to refine APR methods. To enhance the robustness of our model, we introduce a feature fusion module and a progressive training strategy. Our proposed method achieves state-of-the-art single-image APR accuracy on indoor and outdoor datasets.

Reconstructing 3D human shape and pose from monocular images is challenging despite the promising results achieved by the most recent learning-based methods. The commonly occurred misalignment comes from the facts that the mapping from images to the model space is highly non-linear and the rotation-based pose representation of body models is prone to result in the drift of joint positions. In this work, we investigate learning 3D human shape and pose from dense correspondences of body parts and propose a Decompose-and-aggregate Network (DaNet) to address these issues. DaNet adopts the dense correspondence maps, which densely build a bridge between 2D pixels and 3D vertices, as intermediate representations to facilitate the learning of 2D-to-3D mapping. The prediction modules of DaNet are decomposed into one global stream and multiple local streams to enable global and fine-grained perceptions for the shape and pose predictions, respectively. Messages from local streams are further aggregated to enhance the robust prediction of the rotation-based poses, where a position-aided rotation feature refinement strategy is proposed to exploit spatial relationships between body joints. Moreover, a Part-based Dropout (PartDrop) strategy is introduced to drop out dense information from intermediate representations during training, encouraging the network to focus on more complementary body parts as well as neighboring position features. The efficacy of the proposed method is validated on both indoor and real-world datasets including Human3.6M, UP3D, COCO, and 3DPW, showing that our method could significantly improve the reconstruction performance in comparison with previous state-of-the-art methods. Our code is publicly available at https://hongwenzhang.github.io/dense2mesh .

Self-supervised skill learning aims to acquire useful behaviors that leverage the underlying dynamics of the environment. Latent variable models, based on mutual information maximization, have been successful in this task but still struggle in the context of robotic manipulation. As it requires impacting a possibly large set of degrees of freedom composing the environment, mutual information maximization fails alone in producing useful and safe manipulation behaviors. Furthermore, tackling this by augmenting skill discovery rewards with additional rewards through a naive combination might fail to produce desired behaviors. To address this limitation, we introduce SLIM, a multi-critic learning approach for skill discovery with a particular focus on robotic manipulation. Our main insight is that utilizing multiple critics in an actor-critic framework to gracefully combine multiple reward functions leads to a significant improvement in latent-variable skill discovery for robotic manipulation while overcoming possible interference occurring among rewards which hinders convergence to useful skills. Furthermore, in the context of tabletop manipulation, we demonstrate the applicability of our novel skill discovery approach to acquire safe and efficient motor primitives in a hierarchical reinforcement learning fashion and leverage them through planning, significantly surpassing baseline approaches for skill discovery.

A key challenge of modern machine learning systems is to achieve Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization -- generalizing to target data whose distribution differs from that of source data. Despite its significant importance, the fundamental question of ``what are the most effective algorithms for OOD generalization'' remains open even under the standard setting of covariate shift. This paper addresses this fundamental question by proving that, surprisingly, classical Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) purely using source data (without any modification) achieves the minimax optimality for covariate shift under the well-specified setting. That is, no algorithm performs better than MLE in this setting (up to a constant factor), justifying MLE is all you need. Our result holds for a very rich class of parametric models, and does not require any boundedness condition on the density ratio. We illustrate the wide applicability of our framework by instantiating it to three concrete examples -- linear regression, logistic regression, and phase retrieval. This paper further complement the study by proving that, under the misspecified setting, MLE is no longer the optimal choice, whereas Maximum Weighted Likelihood Estimator (MWLE) emerges as minimax optimal in certain scenarios.

Human body orientation estimation (HBOE) is widely applied into various applications, including robotics, surveillance, pedestrian analysis and autonomous driving. Although many approaches have been addressing the HBOE problem from specific under-controlled scenes to challenging in-the-wild environments, they assume human instances are already detected and take a well cropped sub-image as the input. This setting is less efficient and prone to errors in real application, such as crowds of people. In the paper, we propose a single-stage end-to-end trainable framework for tackling the HBOE problem with multi-persons. By integrating the prediction of bounding boxes and direction angles in one embedding, our method can jointly estimate the location and orientation of all bodies in one image directly. Our key idea is to integrate the HBOE task into the multi-scale anchor channel predictions of persons for concurrently benefiting from engaged intermediate features. Therefore, our approach can naturally adapt to difficult instances involving low resolution and occlusion as in object detection. We validated the efficiency and effectiveness of our method in the recently presented benchmark MEBOW with extensive experiments. Besides, we completed ambiguous instances ignored by the MEBOW dataset, and provided corresponding weak body-orientation labels to keep the integrity and consistency of it for supporting studies toward multi-persons. Our work is available at https://github.com/hnuzhy/JointBDOE.

Objects undergo varying amounts of perspective distortion as they move across a camera's field of view. Models for predicting 3D from a single image often work with crops around the object of interest and ignore the location of the object in the camera's field of view. We note that ignoring this location information further exaggerates the inherent ambiguity in making 3D inferences from 2D images and can prevent models from even fitting to the training data. To mitigate this ambiguity, we propose Intrinsics-Aware Positional Encoding (KPE), which incorporates information about the location of crops in the image and camera intrinsics. Experiments on three popular 3D-from-a-single-image benchmarks: depth prediction on NYU, 3D object detection on KITTI & nuScenes, and predicting 3D shapes of articulated objects on ARCTIC, show the benefits of KPE.

Video representation learning is an increasingly important topic in machine learning research. We present Video JEPA with Variance-Covariance Regularization (VJ-VCR): a joint-embedding predictive architecture for self-supervised video representation learning that employs variance and covariance regularization to avoid representation collapse. We show that hidden representations from our VJ-VCR contain abstract, high-level information about the input data. Specifically, they outperform representations obtained from a generative baseline on downstream tasks that require understanding of the underlying dynamics of moving objects in the videos. Additionally, we explore different ways to incorporate latent variables into the VJ-VCR framework that capture information about uncertainty in the future in non-deterministic settings.

We propose a multicountry quantile factor augmeneted vector autoregression (QFAVAR) to model heterogeneities both across countries and across characteristics of the distributions of macroeconomic time series. The presence of quantile factors allows for summarizing these two heterogeneities in a parsimonious way. We develop two algorithms for posterior inference that feature varying level of trade-off between estimation precision and computational speed. Using monthly data for the euro area, we establish the good empirical properties of the QFAVAR as a tool for assessing the effects of global shocks on country-level macroeconomic risks. In particular, QFAVAR short-run tail forecasts are more accurate compared to a FAVAR with symmetric Gaussian errors, as well as univariate quantile autoregressions that ignore comovements among quantiles of macroeconomic variables. We also illustrate how quantile impulse response functions and quantile connectedness measures, resulting from the new model, can be used to implement joint risk scenario analysis.

We introduce Temporal Residual Jacobians as a novel representation to enable data-driven motion transfer. Our approach does not assume access to any rigging or intermediate shape keyframes, produces geometrically and temporally consistent motions, and can be used to transfer long motion sequences. Central to our approach are two coupled neural networks that individually predict local geometric and temporal changes that are subsequently integrated, spatially and temporally, to produce the final animated meshes. The two networks are jointly trained, complement each other in producing spatial and temporal signals, and are supervised directly with 3D positional information. During inference, in the absence of keyframes, our method essentially solves a motion extrapolation problem. We test our setup on diverse meshes (synthetic and scanned shapes) to demonstrate its superiority in generating realistic and natural-looking animations on unseen body shapes against SoTA alternatives. Supplemental video and code are available at https://temporaljacobians.github.io/ .

Camera pose estimation is a key step in standard 3D reconstruction pipelines that operate on a dense set of images of a single object or scene. However, methods for pose estimation often fail when only a few images are available because they rely on the ability to robustly identify and match visual features between image pairs. While these methods can work robustly with dense camera views, capturing a large set of images can be time-consuming or impractical. We propose SparsePose for recovering accurate camera poses given a sparse set of wide-baseline images (fewer than 10). The method learns to regress initial camera poses and then iteratively refine them after training on a large-scale dataset of objects (Co3D: Common Objects in 3D). SparsePose significantly outperforms conventional and learning-based baselines in recovering accurate camera rotations and translations. We also demonstrate our pipeline for high-fidelity 3D reconstruction using only 5-9 images of an object.

We consider the problem of estimating (diagonally dominant) M-matrices as precision matrices in Gaussian graphical models. These models exhibit intriguing properties, such as the existence of the maximum likelihood estimator with merely two observations for M-matrices lauritzen2019maximum,slawski2015estimation and even one observation for diagonally dominant M-matrices truell2021maximum. We propose an adaptive multiple-stage estimation method that refines the estimate by solving a weighted ell_1-regularized problem at each stage. Furthermore, we develop a unified framework based on the gradient projection method to solve the regularized problem, incorporating distinct projections to handle the constraints of M-matrices and diagonally dominant M-matrices. A theoretical analysis of the estimation error is provided. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in precision matrix estimation and graph edge identification, as evidenced by synthetic and financial time-series data sets.

Sharp, multidimensional changepoints-abrupt shifts in a regression surface whose locations and magnitudes are unknown-arise in settings as varied as gene-expression profiling, financial covariance breaks, climate-regime detection, and urban socioeconomic mapping. Despite their prevalence, there are no current approaches that jointly estimate the location and size of the discontinuity set in a one-shot approach with statistical guarantees. We therefore introduce Free Discontinuity Regression (FDR), a fully nonparametric estimator that simultaneously (i) smooths a regression surface, (ii) segments it into contiguous regions, and (iii) provably recovers the precise locations and sizes of its jumps. By extending a convex relaxation of the Mumford-Shah functional to random spatial sampling and correlated noise, FDR overcomes the fixed-grid and i.i.d. noise assumptions of classical image-segmentation approaches, thus enabling its application to real-world data of any dimension. This yields the first identification and uniform consistency results for multivariate jump surfaces: under mild SBV regularity, the estimated function, its discontinuity set, and all jump sizes converge to their true population counterparts. Hyperparameters are selected automatically from the data using Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimate, and large-scale simulations up to three dimensions validate the theoretical results and demonstrate good finite-sample performance. Applying FDR to an internet shutdown in India reveals a 25-35% reduction in economic activity around the estimated shutdown boundaries-much larger than previous estimates. By unifying smoothing, segmentation, and effect-size recovery in a general statistical setting, FDR turns free-discontinuity ideas into a practical tool with formal guarantees for modern multivariate data.

Regression-based methods for 3D human pose estimation directly predict the 3D pose parameters from a 2D image using deep networks. While achieving state-of-the-art performance on standard benchmarks, their performance degrades under occlusion. In contrast, optimization-based methods fit a parametric body model to 2D features in an iterative manner. The localized reconstruction loss can potentially make them robust to occlusion, but they suffer from the 2D-3D ambiguity. Motivated by the recent success of generative models in rigid object pose estimation, we propose 3D-aware Neural Body Fitting (3DNBF) - an approximate analysis-by-synthesis approach to 3D human pose estimation with SOTA performance and occlusion robustness. In particular, we propose a generative model of deep features based on a volumetric human representation with Gaussian ellipsoidal kernels emitting 3D pose-dependent feature vectors. The neural features are trained with contrastive learning to become 3D-aware and hence to overcome the 2D-3D ambiguity. Experiments show that 3DNBF outperforms other approaches on both occluded and standard benchmarks. Code is available at https://github.com/edz-o/3DNBF

Efficiently and flexibly estimating treatment effect heterogeneity is an important task in a wide variety of settings ranging from medicine to marketing, and there are a considerable number of promising conditional average treatment effect estimators currently available. These, however, typically rely on the assumption that the measured covariates are enough to justify conditional exchangeability. We propose the P-learner, motivated by the R- and DR-learner, a tailored two-stage loss function for learning heterogeneous treatment effects in settings where exchangeability given observed covariates is an implausible assumption, and we wish to rely on proxy variables for causal inference. Our proposed estimator can be implemented by off-the-shelf loss-minimizing machine learning methods, which in the case of kernel regression satisfies an oracle bound on the estimated error as long as the nuisance components are estimated reasonably well.

We address the task of estimating camera parameters from a set of images depicting a scene. Popular feature-based structure-from-motion (SfM) tools solve this task by incremental reconstruction: they repeat triangulation of sparse 3D points and registration of more camera views to the sparse point cloud. We re-interpret incremental structure-from-motion as an iterated application and refinement of a visual relocalizer, that is, of a method that registers new views to the current state of the reconstruction. This perspective allows us to investigate alternative visual relocalizers that are not rooted in local feature matching. We show that scene coordinate regression, a learning-based relocalization approach, allows us to build implicit, neural scene representations from unposed images. Different from other learning-based reconstruction methods, we do not require pose priors nor sequential inputs, and we optimize efficiently over thousands of images. Our method, ACE0 (ACE Zero), estimates camera poses to an accuracy comparable to feature-based SfM, as demonstrated by novel view synthesis. Project page: https://nianticlabs.github.io/acezero/

In this work, we develop an open-source surgical simulation environment that includes a realistic model obtained by MRI-scanning a physical phantom, for the purpose of training and evaluating a Learning from Demonstration (LfD) algorithm for autonomous suturing. The LfD algorithm utilizes Dynamic Movement Primitives (DMP) and Locally Weighted Regression (LWR), but focuses on the needle trajectory, rather than the instruments, to obtain better generality with respect to needle grasps. We conduct a user study to collect multiple suturing demonstrations and perform a comprehensive analysis of the ability of the LfD algorithm to generalize from a demonstration at one location in one phantom to different locations in the same phantom and to a different phantom. Our results indicate good generalization, on the order of 91.5%, when learning from more experienced subjects, indicating the need to integrate skill assessment in the future.

In this paper, we propose an algorithm that allows joint refinement of camera pose and scene geometry represented by decomposed low-rank tensor, using only 2D images as supervision. First, we conduct a pilot study based on a 1D signal and relate our findings to 3D scenarios, where the naive joint pose optimization on voxel-based NeRFs can easily lead to sub-optimal solutions. Moreover, based on the analysis of the frequency spectrum, we propose to apply convolutional Gaussian filters on 2D and 3D radiance fields for a coarse-to-fine training schedule that enables joint camera pose optimization. Leveraging the decomposition property in decomposed low-rank tensor, our method achieves an equivalent effect to brute-force 3D convolution with only incurring little computational overhead. To further improve the robustness and stability of joint optimization, we also propose techniques of smoothed 2D supervision, randomly scaled kernel parameters, and edge-guided loss mask. Extensive quantitative and qualitative evaluations demonstrate that our proposed framework achieves superior performance in novel view synthesis as well as rapid convergence for optimization.

It is well-known that inverse dynamics models can improve tracking performance in robot control. These models need to precisely capture the robot dynamics, which consist of well-understood components, e.g., rigid body dynamics, and effects that remain challenging to capture, e.g., stick-slip friction and mechanical flexibilities. Such effects exhibit hysteresis and partial observability, rendering them, particularly challenging to model. Hence, hybrid models, which combine a physical prior with data-driven approaches are especially well-suited in this setting. We present a novel hybrid model formulation that enables us to identify fully physically consistent inertial parameters of a rigid body dynamics model which is paired with a recurrent neural network architecture, allowing us to capture unmodeled partially observable effects using the network memory. We compare our approach against state-of-the-art inverse dynamics models on a 7 degree of freedom manipulator. Using data sets obtained through an optimal experiment design approach, we study the accuracy of offline torque prediction and generalization capabilities of joint learning methods. In control experiments on the real system, we evaluate the model as a feed-forward term for impedance control and show the feedback gains can be drastically reduced to achieve a given tracking accuracy.

Researchers are usually interested in examining the impact of covariates when separating heterogeneous samples into latent classes that are more homogeneous. The majority of theoretical and empirical studies with such aims have focused on identifying covariates as predictors of class membership in the structural equation modeling framework. In other words, the covariates only indirectly affect the sample heterogeneity. However, the covariates' influence on between-individual differences can also be direct. This article presents a mixture model that investigates covariates to explain within-cluster and between-cluster heterogeneity simultaneously, known as a mixture-of-experts (MoE) model. This study aims to extend the MoE framework to investigate heterogeneity in nonlinear trajectories: to identify latent classes, covariates as predictors to clusters, and covariates that explain within-cluster differences in change patterns over time. Our simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed model generally estimates the parameters unbiasedly, precisely and exhibits appropriate empirical coverage for a nominal 95% confidence interval. This study also proposes implementing structural equation model forests to shrink the covariate space of the proposed mixture model. We illustrate how to select covariates and construct the proposed model with longitudinal mathematics achievement data. Additionally, we demonstrate that the proposed mixture model can be further extended in the structural equation modeling framework by allowing the covariates that have direct effects to be time-varying.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

Observational studies require adjustment for confounding factors that are correlated with both the treatment and outcome. In the setting where the observed variables are tabular quantities such as average income in a neighborhood, tools have been developed for addressing such confounding. However, in many parts of the developing world, features about local communities may be scarce. In this context, satellite imagery can play an important role, serving as a proxy for the confounding variables otherwise unobserved. In this paper, we study confounder adjustment in this non-tabular setting, where patterns or objects found in satellite images contribute to the confounder bias. Using the evaluation of anti-poverty aid programs in Africa as our running example, we formalize the challenge of performing causal adjustment with such unstructured data -- what conditions are sufficient to identify causal effects, how to perform estimation, and how to quantify the ways in which certain aspects of the unstructured image object are most predictive of the treatment decision. Via simulation, we also explore the sensitivity of satellite image-based observational inference to image resolution and to misspecification of the image-associated confounder. Finally, we apply these tools in estimating the effect of anti-poverty interventions in African communities from satellite imagery.

Our motivation is to shed light the performance of the widely popular "R-Learner." Like many other methods for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs), R-Learning can be expressed as a weighted pseudo-outcome regression (POR). Previous comparisons of POR techniques have paid careful attention to the choice of pseudo-outcome transformation. However, we argue that the dominant driver of performance is actually the choice of weights. Specifically, we argue that R-Learning implicitly performs an inverse-variance weighted form of POR. These weights stabilize the regression and allow for convenient simplifications of bias terms.

To minimize the average of a set of log-convex functions, the stochastic Newton method iteratively updates its estimate using subsampled versions of the full objective's gradient and Hessian. We contextualize this optimization problem as sequential Bayesian inference on a latent state-space model with a discriminatively-specified observation process. Applying Bayesian filtering then yields a novel optimization algorithm that considers the entire history of gradients and Hessians when forming an update. We establish matrix-based conditions under which the effect of older observations diminishes over time, in a manner analogous to Polyak's heavy ball momentum. We illustrate various aspects of our approach with an example and review other relevant innovations for the stochastic Newton method.

This paper extends the classic theory of convex optimization to the minimization of functions that are equal to the negated logarithm of what we term as a sum-log-concave function, i.e., a sum of log-concave functions. In particular, we show that such functions are in general not convex but still satisfy generalized convexity inequalities. These inequalities unveil the key importance of a certain vector that we call the cross-gradient and that is, in general, distinct from the usual gradient. Thus, we propose the Cross Gradient Descent (XGD) algorithm moving in the opposite direction of the cross-gradient and derive a convergence analysis. As an application of our sum-log-concave framework, we introduce the so-called checkered regression method relying on a sum-log-concave function. This classifier extends (multiclass) logistic regression to non-linearly separable problems since it is capable of tessellating the feature space by using any given number of hyperplanes, creating a checkerboard-like pattern of decision regions.

Data-based and learning-based sound source localization (SSL) has shown promising results in challenging conditions, and is commonly set as a classification or a regression problem. Regression-based approaches have certain advantages over classification-based, such as continuous direction-of-arrival estimation of static and moving sources. However, multi-source scenarios require multiple regressors without a clear training strategy up-to-date, that does not rely on auxiliary information such as simultaneous sound classification. We investigate end-to-end training of such methods with a technique recently proposed for video object detectors, adapted to the SSL setting. A differentiable network is constructed that can be plugged to the output of the localizer to solve the optimal assignment between predictions and references, optimizing directly the popular CLEAR-MOT tracking metrics. Results indicate large improvements over directly optimizing mean squared errors, in terms of localization error, detection metrics, and tracking capabilities.

In this paper, we address the challenge of making ViT models more robust to unseen affine transformations. Such robustness becomes useful in various recognition tasks such as face recognition when image alignment failures occur. We propose a novel method called KP-RPE, which leverages key points (e.g.~facial landmarks) to make ViT more resilient to scale, translation, and pose variations. We begin with the observation that Relative Position Encoding (RPE) is a good way to bring affine transform generalization to ViTs. RPE, however, can only inject the model with prior knowledge that nearby pixels are more important than far pixels. Keypoint RPE (KP-RPE) is an extension of this principle, where the significance of pixels is not solely dictated by their proximity but also by their relative positions to specific keypoints within the image. By anchoring the significance of pixels around keypoints, the model can more effectively retain spatial relationships, even when those relationships are disrupted by affine transformations. We show the merit of KP-RPE in face and gait recognition. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness in improving face recognition performance from low-quality images, particularly where alignment is prone to failure. Code and pre-trained models are available.

Small sample sizes are common in many disciplines, which necessitates pooling roughly similar datasets across multiple institutions to study weak but relevant associations between images and disease outcomes. Such data often manifest shift/imbalance in covariates (i.e., secondary non-imaging data). Controlling for such nuisance variables is common within standard statistical analysis, but the ideas do not directly apply to overparameterized models. Consequently, recent work has shown how strategies from invariant representation learning provides a meaningful starting point, but the current repertoire of methods is limited to accounting for shifts/imbalances in just a couple of covariates at a time. In this paper, we show how viewing this problem from the perspective of Category theory provides a simple and effective solution that completely avoids elaborate multi-stage training pipelines that would otherwise be needed. We show the effectiveness of this approach via extensive experiments on real datasets. Further, we discuss how this style of formulation offers a unified perspective on at least 5+ distinct problem settings, from self-supervised learning to matching problems in 3D reconstruction.

Given sparse views of an object, estimating their camera poses is a long-standing and intractable problem. We harness the pre-trained diffusion model of novel views conditioned on viewpoints (Zero-1-to-3). We present ID-Pose which inverses the denoising diffusion process to estimate the relative pose given two input images. ID-Pose adds a noise on one image, and predicts the noise conditioned on the other image and a decision variable for the pose. The prediction error is used as the objective to find the optimal pose with the gradient descent method. ID-Pose can handle more than two images and estimate each of the poses with multiple image pairs from triangular relationships. ID-Pose requires no training and generalizes to real-world images. We conduct experiments using high-quality real-scanned 3D objects, where ID-Pose significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods.

Dexterous grasping aims to produce diverse grasping postures with a high grasping success rate. Regression-based methods that directly predict grasping parameters given the object may achieve a high success rate but often lack diversity. Generation-based methods that generate grasping postures conditioned on the object can often produce diverse grasping, but they are insufficient for high grasping success due to lack of discriminative information. To mitigate, we introduce a unified diffusion-based dexterous grasp generation model, dubbed the name UGG, which operates within the object point cloud and hand parameter spaces. Our all-transformer architecture unifies the information from the object, the hand, and the contacts, introducing a novel representation of contact points for improved contact modeling. The flexibility and quality of our model enable the integration of a lightweight discriminator, benefiting from simulated discriminative data, which pushes for a high success rate while preserving high diversity. Beyond grasp generation, our model can also generate objects based on hand information, offering valuable insights into object design and studying how the generative model perceives objects. Our model achieves state-of-the-art dexterous grasping on the large-scale DexGraspNet dataset while facilitating human-centric object design, marking a significant advancement in dexterous grasping research. Our project page is https://jiaxin-lu.github.io/ugg/ .

This paper presents a Bayesian nonparametric latent feature model specially suitable for exploratory analysis of high-dimensional count data. We perform a non-negative doubly sparse matrix factorization that has two main advantages: not only we are able to better approximate the row input distributions, but the inferred topics are also easier to interpret. By combining the three-parameter and restricted Indian buffet processes into a single prior, we increase the model flexibility, allowing for a full spectrum of sparse solutions in the latent space. We demonstrate the usefulness of our approach in the analysis of countries' economic structure. Compared to other approaches, empirical results show our model's ability to give easy-to-interpret information and better capture the underlying sparsity structure of data.

Single camera 3D pose estimation is an ill-defined problem due to inherent ambiguities from depth, occlusion or keypoint noise. Multi-hypothesis pose estimation accounts for this uncertainty by providing multiple 3D poses consistent with the 2D measurements. Current research has predominantly concentrated on generating multiple hypotheses for single frame static pose estimation. In this study we focus on the new task of multi-hypothesis motion estimation. Motion estimation is not simply pose estimation applied to multiple frames, which would ignore temporal correlation across frames. Instead, it requires distributions which are capable of generating temporally consistent samples, which is significantly more challenging. To this end, we introduce Platypose, a framework that uses a diffusion model pretrained on 3D human motion sequences for zero-shot 3D pose sequence estimation. Platypose outperforms baseline methods on multiple hypotheses for motion estimation. Additionally, Platypose also achieves state-of-the-art calibration and competitive joint error when tested on static poses from Human3.6M, MPI-INF-3DHP and 3DPW. Finally, because it is zero-shot, our method generalizes flexibly to different settings such as multi-camera inference.

Recent advances in dense 3D reconstruction have led to significant progress, yet achieving accurate unified geometric prediction remains a major challenge. Most existing methods are limited to predicting a single geometry quantity from input images. However, geometric quantities such as depth, surface normals, and point maps are inherently correlated, and estimating them in isolation often fails to ensure consistency, thereby limiting both accuracy and practical applicability. This motivates us to explore a unified framework that explicitly models the structural coupling among different geometric properties to enable joint regression. In this paper, we present Dens3R, a 3D foundation model designed for joint geometric dense prediction and adaptable to a wide range of downstream tasks. Dens3R adopts a two-stage training framework to progressively build a pointmap representation that is both generalizable and intrinsically invariant. Specifically, we design a lightweight shared encoder-decoder backbone and introduce position-interpolated rotary positional encoding to maintain expressive power while enhancing robustness to high-resolution inputs. By integrating image-pair matching features with intrinsic invariance modeling, Dens3R accurately regresses multiple geometric quantities such as surface normals and depth, achieving consistent geometry perception from single-view to multi-view inputs. Additionally, we propose a post-processing pipeline that supports geometrically consistent multi-view inference. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superior performance of Dens3R across various dense 3D prediction tasks and highlight its potential for broader applications.

We present a new self-supervised approach, SelfPose3d, for estimating 3d poses of multiple persons from multiple camera views. Unlike current state-of-the-art fully-supervised methods, our approach does not require any 2d or 3d ground-truth poses and uses only the multi-view input images from a calibrated camera setup and 2d pseudo poses generated from an off-the-shelf 2d human pose estimator. We propose two self-supervised learning objectives: self-supervised person localization in 3d space and self-supervised 3d pose estimation. We achieve self-supervised 3d person localization by training the model on synthetically generated 3d points, serving as 3d person root positions, and on the projected root-heatmaps in all the views. We then model the 3d poses of all the localized persons with a bottleneck representation, map them onto all views obtaining 2d joints, and render them using 2d Gaussian heatmaps in an end-to-end differentiable manner. Afterwards, we use the corresponding 2d joints and heatmaps from the pseudo 2d poses for learning. To alleviate the intrinsic inaccuracy of the pseudo labels, we propose an adaptive supervision attention mechanism to guide the self-supervision. Our experiments and analysis on three public benchmark datasets, including Panoptic, Shelf, and Campus, show the effectiveness of our approach, which is comparable to fully-supervised methods. Code: https://github.com/CAMMA-public/SelfPose3D. Video demo: https://youtu.be/GAqhmUIr2E8.

Recent advances in video generation can produce realistic, minute-long single-shot videos with scalable diffusion transformers. However, real-world narrative videos require multi-shot scenes with visual and dynamic consistency across shots. In this work, we introduce Long Context Tuning (LCT), a training paradigm that expands the context window of pre-trained single-shot video diffusion models to learn scene-level consistency directly from data. Our method expands full attention mechanisms from individual shots to encompass all shots within a scene, incorporating interleaved 3D position embedding and an asynchronous noise strategy, enabling both joint and auto-regressive shot generation without additional parameters. Models with bidirectional attention after LCT can further be fine-tuned with context-causal attention, facilitating auto-regressive generation with efficient KV-cache. Experiments demonstrate single-shot models after LCT can produce coherent multi-shot scenes and exhibit emerging capabilities, including compositional generation and interactive shot extension, paving the way for more practical visual content creation. See https://guoyww.github.io/projects/long-context-video/ for more details.

This paper proposes a method for the automatic creation of variables (in the case of regression) that complement the information contained in the initial input vector. The method works as a pre-processing step in which the continuous values of the variable to be regressed are discretized into a set of intervals which are then used to define value thresholds. Then classifiers are trained to predict whether the value to be regressed is less than or equal to each of these thresholds. The different outputs of the classifiers are then concatenated in the form of an additional vector of variables that enriches the initial vector of the regression problem. The implemented system can thus be considered as a generic pre-processing tool. We tested the proposed enrichment method with 5 types of regressors and evaluated it in 33 regression datasets. Our experimental results confirm the interest of the approach.

Ensuring safety is of paramount importance in physical human-robot interaction applications. This requires both adherence to safety constraints defined on the system state, as well as guaranteeing compliant behavior of the robot. If the underlying dynamical system is known exactly, the former can be addressed with the help of control barrier functions. The incorporation of elastic actuators in the robot's mechanical design can address the latter requirement. However, this elasticity can increase the complexity of the resulting system, leading to unmodeled dynamics, such that control barrier functions cannot directly ensure safety. In this paper, we mitigate this issue by learning the unknown dynamics using Gaussian process regression. By employing the model in a feedback linearizing control law, the safety conditions resulting from control barrier functions can be robustified to take into account model errors, while remaining feasible. In order to enforce them on-line, we formulate the derived safety conditions in the form of a second-order cone program. We demonstrate our proposed approach with simulations on a two-degree-of-freedom planar robot with elastic joints.

Expressive human pose and shape estimation (a.k.a. 3D whole-body mesh recovery) involves the human body, hand, and expression estimation. Most existing methods have tackled this task in a two-stage manner, first detecting the human body part with an off-the-shelf detection model and inferring the different human body parts individually. Despite the impressive results achieved, these methods suffer from 1) loss of valuable contextual information via cropping, 2) introducing distractions, and 3) lacking inter-association among different persons and body parts, inevitably causing performance degradation, especially for crowded scenes. To address these issues, we introduce a novel all-in-one-stage framework, AiOS, for multiple expressive human pose and shape recovery without an additional human detection step. Specifically, our method is built upon DETR, which treats multi-person whole-body mesh recovery task as a progressive set prediction problem with various sequential detection. We devise the decoder tokens and extend them to our task. Specifically, we first employ a human token to probe a human location in the image and encode global features for each instance, which provides a coarse location for the later transformer block. Then, we introduce a joint-related token to probe the human joint in the image and encoder a fine-grained local feature, which collaborates with the global feature to regress the whole-body mesh. This straightforward but effective model outperforms previous state-of-the-art methods by a 9% reduction in NMVE on AGORA, a 30% reduction in PVE on EHF, a 10% reduction in PVE on ARCTIC, and a 3% reduction in PVE on EgoBody.

We present an approach that uses a multi-camera system to train fine-grained detectors for keypoints that are prone to occlusion, such as the joints of a hand. We call this procedure multiview bootstrapping: first, an initial keypoint detector is used to produce noisy labels in multiple views of the hand. The noisy detections are then triangulated in 3D using multiview geometry or marked as outliers. Finally, the reprojected triangulations are used as new labeled training data to improve the detector. We repeat this process, generating more labeled data in each iteration. We derive a result analytically relating the minimum number of views to achieve target true and false positive rates for a given detector. The method is used to train a hand keypoint detector for single images. The resulting keypoint detector runs in realtime on RGB images and has accuracy comparable to methods that use depth sensors. The single view detector, triangulated over multiple views, enables 3D markerless hand motion capture with complex object interactions.

In recent years, huge progress has been made on learning neural implicit representations from multi-view images for 3D reconstruction. As an additional input complementing coordinates, using sinusoidal functions as positional encodings plays a key role in revealing high frequency details with coordinate-based neural networks. However, high frequency positional encodings make the optimization unstable, which results in noisy reconstructions and artifacts in empty space. To resolve this issue in a general sense, we introduce to learn neural implicit representations with quantized coordinates, which reduces the uncertainty and ambiguity in the field during optimization. Instead of continuous coordinates, we discretize continuous coordinates into discrete coordinates using nearest interpolation among quantized coordinates which are obtained by discretizing the field in an extremely high resolution. We use discrete coordinates and their positional encodings to learn implicit functions through volume rendering. This significantly reduces the variations in the sample space, and triggers more multi-view consistency constraints on intersections of rays from different views, which enables to infer implicit function in a more effective way. Our quantized coordinates do not bring any computational burden, and can seamlessly work upon the latest methods. Our evaluations under the widely used benchmarks show our superiority over the state-of-the-art. Our code is available at https://github.com/MachinePerceptionLab/CQ-NIR.

We present a novel method for collaborative robots (cobots) to learn manipulation tasks and perform them in a human-like manner. Our method falls under the learn-from-observation (LfO) paradigm, where robots learn to perform tasks by observing human actions, which facilitates quicker integration into industrial settings compared to programming from scratch. We introduce Visual IRL that uses the RGB-D keypoints in each frame of the observed human task performance directly as state features, which are input to inverse reinforcement learning (IRL). The inversely learned reward function, which maps keypoints to reward values, is transferred from the human to the cobot using a novel neuro-symbolic dynamics model, which maps human kinematics to the cobot arm. This model allows similar end-effector positioning while minimizing joint adjustments, aiming to preserve the natural dynamics of human motion in robotic manipulation. In contrast with previous techniques that focus on end-effector placement only, our method maps multiple joint angles of the human arm to the corresponding cobot joints. Moreover, it uses an inverse kinematics model to then minimally adjust the joint angles, for accurate end-effector positioning. We evaluate the performance of this approach on two different realistic manipulation tasks. The first task is produce processing, which involves picking, inspecting, and placing onions based on whether they are blemished. The second task is liquid pouring, where the robot picks up bottles, pours the contents into designated containers, and disposes of the empty bottles. Our results demonstrate advances in human-like robotic manipulation, leading to more human-robot compatibility in manufacturing applications.

Many state-of-the-art hyperparameter optimization (HPO) algorithms rely on model-based optimizers that learn surrogate models of the target function to guide the search. Gaussian processes are the de facto surrogate model due to their ability to capture uncertainty but they make strong assumptions about the observation noise, which might not be warranted in practice. In this work, we propose to leverage conformalized quantile regression which makes minimal assumptions about the observation noise and, as a result, models the target function in a more realistic and robust fashion which translates to quicker HPO convergence on empirical benchmarks. To apply our method in a multi-fidelity setting, we propose a simple, yet effective, technique that aggregates observed results across different resource levels and outperforms conventional methods across many empirical tasks.

Approximations to Gaussian processes based on inducing variables, combined with variational inference techniques, enable state-of-the-art sparse approaches to infer GPs at scale through mini batch-based learning. In this work, we address one limitation of sparse GPs, which is due to the challenge in dealing with a large number of inducing variables without imposing a special structure on the inducing inputs. In particular, we introduce a novel hierarchical prior, which imposes sparsity on the set of inducing variables. We treat our model variationally, and we experimentally show considerable computational gains compared to standard sparse GPs when sparsity on the inducing variables is realized considering the nearest inducing inputs of a random mini-batch of the data. We perform an extensive experimental validation that demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach compared to the state-of-the-art. Our approach enables the possibility to use sparse GPs using a large number of inducing points without incurring a prohibitive computational cost.

Moment restrictions and their conditional counterparts emerge in many areas of machine learning and statistics ranging from causal inference to reinforcement learning. Estimators for these tasks, generally called methods of moments, include the prominent generalized method of moments (GMM) which has recently gained attention in causal inference. GMM is a special case of the broader family of empirical likelihood estimators which are based on approximating a population distribution by means of minimizing a varphi-divergence to an empirical distribution. However, the use of varphi-divergences effectively limits the candidate distributions to reweightings of the data samples. We lift this long-standing limitation and provide a method of moments that goes beyond data reweighting. This is achieved by defining an empirical likelihood estimator based on maximum mean discrepancy which we term the kernel method of moments (KMM). We provide a variant of our estimator for conditional moment restrictions and show that it is asymptotically first-order optimal for such problems. Finally, we show that our method achieves competitive performance on several conditional moment restriction tasks.

For a data-generating process for random variables that can be described with a linear structural equation model, we consider a situation in which (i) a set of covariates satisfying the back-door criterion cannot be observed or (ii) such a set can be observed, but standard statistical estimation methods cannot be applied to estimate causal effects because of multicollinearity/high-dimensional data problems. We propose a novel two-stage penalized regression approach, the penalized covariate-mediator selection operator (PCM Selector), to estimate the causal effects in such scenarios. Unlike existing penalized regression analyses, when a set of intermediate variables is available, PCM Selector provides a consistent or less biased estimator of the causal effect. In addition, PCM Selector provides a variable selection procedure for intermediate variables to obtain better estimation accuracy of the causal effects than does the back-door criterion.

Neural posterior estimation (NPE), a type of amortized variational inference, is a computationally efficient means of constructing probabilistic catalogs of light sources from astronomical images. To date, NPE has not been used to perform inference in models with spatially varying covariates. However, ground-based astronomical images have spatially varying sky backgrounds and point spread functions (PSFs), and accounting for this variation is essential for constructing accurate catalogs of imaged light sources. In this work, we introduce a method of performing NPE with spatially varying backgrounds and PSFs. In this method, we generate synthetic catalogs and semi-synthetic images for these catalogs using randomly sampled PSF and background estimates from existing surveys. Using this data, we train a neural network, which takes an astronomical image and representations of its background and PSF as input, to output a probabilistic catalog. Our experiments with Sloan Digital Sky Survey data demonstrate the effectiveness of NPE in the presence of spatially varying backgrounds and PSFs for light source detection, star/galaxy separation, and flux measurement.

Estimating camera poses is a fundamental task for 3D reconstruction and remains challenging given sparsely sampled views (<10). In contrast to existing approaches that pursue top-down prediction of global parametrizations of camera extrinsics, we propose a distributed representation of camera pose that treats a camera as a bundle of rays. This representation allows for a tight coupling with spatial image features improving pose precision. We observe that this representation is naturally suited for set-level transformers and develop a regression-based approach that maps image patches to corresponding rays. To capture the inherent uncertainties in sparse-view pose inference, we adapt this approach to learn a denoising diffusion model which allows us to sample plausible modes while improving performance. Our proposed methods, both regression- and diffusion-based, demonstrate state-of-the-art performance on camera pose estimation on CO3D while generalizing to unseen object categories and in-the-wild captures.

Learning-based outlier (mismatched correspondence) rejection for robust 3D registration generally formulates the outlier removal as an inlier/outlier classification problem. The core for this to be successful is to learn the discriminative inlier/outlier feature representations. In this paper, we develop a novel variational non-local network-based outlier rejection framework for robust alignment. By reformulating the non-local feature learning with variational Bayesian inference, the Bayesian-driven long-range dependencies can be modeled to aggregate discriminative geometric context information for inlier/outlier distinction. Specifically, to achieve such Bayesian-driven contextual dependencies, each query/key/value component in our non-local network predicts a prior feature distribution and a posterior one. Embedded with the inlier/outlier label, the posterior feature distribution is label-dependent and discriminative. Thus, pushing the prior to be close to the discriminative posterior in the training step enables the features sampled from this prior at test time to model high-quality long-range dependencies. Notably, to achieve effective posterior feature guidance, a specific probabilistic graphical model is designed over our non-local model, which lets us derive a variational low bound as our optimization objective for model training. Finally, we propose a voting-based inlier searching strategy to cluster the high-quality hypothetical inliers for transformation estimation. Extensive experiments on 3DMatch, 3DLoMatch, and KITTI datasets verify the effectiveness of our method.

Accurate whole-body multi-person pose estimation and tracking is an important yet challenging topic in computer vision. To capture the subtle actions of humans for complex behavior analysis, whole-body pose estimation including the face, body, hand and foot is essential over conventional body-only pose estimation. In this paper, we present AlphaPose, a system that can perform accurate whole-body pose estimation and tracking jointly while running in realtime. To this end, we propose several new techniques: Symmetric Integral Keypoint Regression (SIKR) for fast and fine localization, Parametric Pose Non-Maximum-Suppression (P-NMS) for eliminating redundant human detections and Pose Aware Identity Embedding for jointly pose estimation and tracking. During training, we resort to Part-Guided Proposal Generator (PGPG) and multi-domain knowledge distillation to further improve the accuracy. Our method is able to localize whole-body keypoints accurately and tracks humans simultaneously given inaccurate bounding boxes and redundant detections. We show a significant improvement over current state-of-the-art methods in both speed and accuracy on COCO-wholebody, COCO, PoseTrack, and our proposed Halpe-FullBody pose estimation dataset. Our model, source codes and dataset are made publicly available at https://github.com/MVIG-SJTU/AlphaPose.

We present 3DRegNet, a novel deep learning architecture for the registration of 3D scans. Given a set of 3D point correspondences, we build a deep neural network to address the following two challenges: (i) classification of the point correspondences into inliers/outliers, and (ii) regression of the motion parameters that align the scans into a common reference frame. With regard to regression, we present two alternative approaches: (i) a Deep Neural Network (DNN) registration and (ii) a Procrustes approach using SVD to estimate the transformation. Our correspondence-based approach achieves a higher speedup compared to competing baselines. We further propose the use of a refinement network, which consists of a smaller 3DRegNet as a refinement to improve the accuracy of the registration. Extensive experiments on two challenging datasets demonstrate that we outperform other methods and achieve state-of-the-art results. The code is available.

A directed acyclic graph (DAG) provides valuable prior knowledge that is often discarded in regression tasks in machine learning. We show that the independences arising from the presence of collider structures in DAGs provide meaningful inductive biases, which constrain the regression hypothesis space and improve predictive performance. We introduce collider regression, a framework to incorporate probabilistic causal knowledge from a collider in a regression problem. When the hypothesis space is a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, we prove a strictly positive generalisation benefit under mild assumptions and provide closed-form estimators of the empirical risk minimiser. Experiments on synthetic and climate model data demonstrate performance gains of the proposed methodology.

This study introduces PV-RNN, a novel variational RNN inspired by the predictive-coding ideas. The model learns to extract the probabilistic structures hidden in fluctuating temporal patterns by dynamically changing the stochasticity of its latent states. Its architecture attempts to address two major concerns of variational Bayes RNNs: how can latent variables learn meaningful representations and how can the inference model transfer future observations to the latent variables. PV-RNN does both by introducing adaptive vectors mirroring the training data, whose values can then be adapted differently during evaluation. Moreover, prediction errors during backpropagation, rather than external inputs during the forward computation, are used to convey information to the network about the external data. For testing, we introduce error regression for predicting unseen sequences as inspired by predictive coding that leverages those mechanisms. The model introduces a weighting parameter, the meta-prior, to balance the optimization pressure placed on two terms of a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the sequential data. We test the model on two datasets with probabilistic structures and show that with high values of the meta-prior the network develops deterministic chaos through which the data's randomness is imitated. For low values, the model behaves as a random process. The network performs best on intermediate values, and is able to capture the latent probabilistic structure with good generalization. Analyzing the meta-prior's impact on the network allows to precisely study the theoretical value and practical benefits of incorporating stochastic dynamics in our model. We demonstrate better prediction performance on a robot imitation task with our model using error regression compared to a standard variational Bayes model lacking such a procedure.

Given a dataset on actions and resulting long-term rewards, a direct estimation approach fits value functions that minimize prediction error on the training data. Temporal difference learning (TD) methods instead fit value functions by minimizing the degree of temporal inconsistency between estimates made at successive time-steps. Focusing on finite state Markov chains, we provide a crisp asymptotic theory of the statistical advantages of this approach. First, we show that an intuitive inverse trajectory pooling coefficient completely characterizes the percent reduction in mean-squared error of value estimates. Depending on problem structure, the reduction could be enormous or nonexistent. Next, we prove that there can be dramatic improvements in estimates of the difference in value-to-go for two states: TD's errors are bounded in terms of a novel measure - the problem's trajectory crossing time - which can be much smaller than the problem's time horizon.

We employ random matrix theory to establish consistency of generalized cross validation (GCV) for estimating prediction risks of sketched ridge regression ensembles, enabling efficient and consistent tuning of regularization and sketching parameters. Our results hold for a broad class of asymptotically free sketches under very mild data assumptions. For squared prediction risk, we provide a decomposition into an unsketched equivalent implicit ridge bias and a sketching-based variance, and prove that the risk can be globally optimized by only tuning sketch size in infinite ensembles. For general subquadratic prediction risk functionals, we extend GCV to construct consistent risk estimators, and thereby obtain distributional convergence of the GCV-corrected predictions in Wasserstein-2 metric. This in particular allows construction of prediction intervals with asymptotically correct coverage conditional on the training data. We also propose an "ensemble trick" whereby the risk for unsketched ridge regression can be efficiently estimated via GCV using small sketched ridge ensembles. We empirically validate our theoretical results using both synthetic and real large-scale datasets with practical sketches including CountSketch and subsampled randomized discrete cosine transforms.

Open-world 3D generation has recently attracted considerable attention. While many single-image-to-3D methods have yielded visually appealing outcomes, they often lack sufficient controllability and tend to produce hallucinated regions that may not align with users' expectations. In this paper, we explore an important scenario in which the input consists of one or a few unposed 2D images of a single object, with little or no overlap. We propose a novel method, SpaRP, to reconstruct a 3D textured mesh and estimate the relative camera poses for these sparse-view images. SpaRP distills knowledge from 2D diffusion models and finetunes them to implicitly deduce the 3D spatial relationships between the sparse views. The diffusion model is trained to jointly predict surrogate representations for camera poses and multi-view images of the object under known poses, integrating all information from the input sparse views. These predictions are then leveraged to accomplish 3D reconstruction and pose estimation, and the reconstructed 3D model can be used to further refine the camera poses of input views. Through extensive experiments on three datasets, we demonstrate that our method not only significantly outperforms baseline methods in terms of 3D reconstruction quality and pose prediction accuracy but also exhibits strong efficiency. It requires only about 20 seconds to produce a textured mesh and camera poses for the input views. Project page: https://chaoxu.xyz/sparp.

The aim of multiple object tracking (MOT) is to detect all objects in a video and bind them into multiple trajectories. Generally, this process is carried out in two steps: detecting objects and associating them across frames based on various cues and metrics. Many studies and applications adopt object appearance, also known as re-identification (ReID) features, for target matching through straightforward similarity calculation. However, we argue that this practice is overly naive and thus overlooks the unique characteristics of MOT tasks. Unlike regular re-identification tasks that strive to distinguish all potential targets in a general representation, multi-object tracking typically immerses itself in differentiating similar targets within the same video sequence. Therefore, we believe that seeking a more suitable feature representation space based on the different sample distributions of each sequence will enhance tracking performance. In this paper, we propose using history-aware transformations on ReID features to achieve more discriminative appearance representations. Specifically, we treat historical trajectory features as conditions and employ a tailored Fisher Linear Discriminant (FLD) to find a spatial projection matrix that maximizes the differentiation between different trajectories. Our extensive experiments reveal that this training-free projection can significantly boost feature-only trackers to achieve competitive, even superior tracking performance compared to state-of-the-art methods while also demonstrating impressive zero-shot transfer capabilities. This demonstrates the effectiveness of our proposal and further encourages future investigation into the importance and customization of ReID models in multiple object tracking. The code will be released at https://github.com/HELLORPG/HATReID-MOT.

The assumption that response and predictor belong to the same statistical unit may be violated in practice. Unbiased estimation and recovery of true label ordering based on unlabeled data are challenging tasks and have attracted increasing attentions in the recent literature. In this paper, we present a relatively complete analysis of label permutation problem for the generalized linear model with multivariate responses. The theory is established under different scenarios, with knowledge of true parameters, with partial knowledge of underlying label permutation matrix and without any knowledge. Our results remove the stringent conditions required by the current literature and are further extended to the missing observation setting which has never been considered in the field of label permutation problem. On computational side, we propose two methods, "maximum likelihood estimation" algorithm and "two-step estimation" algorithm, to accommodate for different settings. When the proportion of permuted labels is moderate, both methods work effectively. Multiple numerical experiments are provided and corroborate our theoretical findings.

We investigate an experiential learning paradigm for acquiring an internal model of intuitive physics. Our model is evaluated on a real-world robotic manipulation task that requires displacing objects to target locations by poking. The robot gathered over 400 hours of experience by executing more than 100K pokes on different objects. We propose a novel approach based on deep neural networks for modeling the dynamics of robot's interactions directly from images, by jointly estimating forward and inverse models of dynamics. The inverse model objective provides supervision to construct informative visual features, which the forward model can then predict and in turn regularize the feature space for the inverse model. The interplay between these two objectives creates useful, accurate models that can then be used for multi-step decision making. This formulation has the additional benefit that it is possible to learn forward models in an abstract feature space and thus alleviate the need of predicting pixels. Our experiments show that this joint modeling approach outperforms alternative methods.

Performance analyses based on videos are commonly used by coaches of athletes in various sports disciplines. In individual sports, these analyses mainly comprise the body posture. This paper focuses on the disciplines of triple, high, and long jump, which require fine-grained locations of the athlete's body. Typical human pose estimation datasets provide only a very limited set of keypoints, which is not sufficient in this case. Therefore, we propose a method to detect arbitrary keypoints on the whole body of the athlete by leveraging the limited set of annotated keypoints and auto-generated segmentation masks of body parts. Evaluations show that our model is capable of detecting keypoints on the head, torso, hands, feet, arms, and legs, including also bent elbows and knees. We analyze and compare different techniques to encode desired keypoints as the model's input and their embedding for the Transformer backbone.

Multi-person motion prediction is a challenging problem due to the dependency of motion on both individual past movements and interactions with other people. Transformer-based methods have shown promising results on this task, but they miss the explicit relation representation between joints, such as skeleton structure and pairwise distance, which is crucial for accurate interaction modeling. In this paper, we propose the Joint-Relation Transformer, which utilizes relation information to enhance interaction modeling and improve future motion prediction. Our relation information contains the relative distance and the intra-/inter-person physical constraints. To fuse relation and joint information, we design a novel joint-relation fusion layer with relation-aware attention to update both features. Additionally, we supervise the relation information by forecasting future distance. Experiments show that our method achieves a 13.4% improvement of 900ms VIM on 3DPW-SoMoF/RC and 17.8%/12.0% improvement of 3s MPJPE on CMU-Mpcap/MuPoTS-3D dataset.

Nowadays, it is possible to scan faces and automatically register them with high quality. However, the resulting face meshes often need further processing: we need to stabilize them to remove unwanted head movement. Stabilization is important for tasks like game development or movie making which require facial expressions to be cleanly separated from rigid head motion. Since manual stabilization is labor-intensive, there have been attempts to automate it. However, previous methods remain impractical: they either still require some manual input, produce imprecise alignments, rely on dubious heuristics and slow optimization, or assume a temporally ordered input. Instead, we present a new learning-based approach that is simple and fully automatic. We treat stabilization as a regression problem: given two face meshes, our network directly predicts the rigid transform between them that brings their skulls into alignment. We generate synthetic training data using a 3D Morphable Model (3DMM), exploiting the fact that 3DMM parameters separate skull motion from facial skin motion. Through extensive experiments we show that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art both quantitatively and qualitatively on the tasks of stabilizing discrete sets of facial expressions as well as dynamic facial performances. Furthermore, we provide an ablation study detailing the design choices and best practices to help others adopt our approach for their own uses. Supplementary videos can be found on the project webpage syntec-research.github.io/FaceStab.

Objective: Electroencephalography signals are recorded as a multidimensional dataset. We propose a new framework based on the augmented covariance extracted from an autoregressive model to improve motor imagery classification. Methods: From the autoregressive model can be derived the Yule-Walker equations, which show the emergence of a symmetric positive definite matrix: the augmented covariance matrix. The state-of the art for classifying covariance matrices is based on Riemannian Geometry. A fairly natural idea is therefore to extend the standard approach using these augmented covariance matrices. The methodology for creating the augmented covariance matrix shows a natural connection with the delay embedding theorem proposed by Takens for dynamical systems. Such an embedding method is based on the knowledge of two parameters: the delay and the embedding dimension, respectively related to the lag and the order of the autoregressive model. This approach provides new methods to compute the hyper-parameters in addition to standard grid search. Results: The augmented covariance matrix performed noticeably better than any state-of-the-art methods. We will test our approach on several datasets and several subjects using the MOABB framework, using both within-session and cross-session evaluation. Conclusion: The improvement in results is due to the fact that the augmented covariance matrix incorporates not only spatial but also temporal information, incorporating nonlinear components of the signal through an embedding procedure, which allows the leveraging of dynamical systems algorithms. Significance: These results extend the concepts and the results of the Riemannian distance based classification algorithm.

To bridge the physical and virtual worlds for rapidly developed VR/AR applications, the ability to realistically drive 3D full-body avatars is of great significance. Although real-time body tracking with only the head-mounted displays (HMDs) and hand controllers is heavily under-constrained, a carefully designed end-to-end neural network is of great potential to solve the problem by learning from large-scale motion data. To this end, we propose a two-stage framework that can obtain accurate and smooth full-body motions with the three tracking signals of head and hands only. Our framework explicitly models the joint-level features in the first stage and utilizes them as spatiotemporal tokens for alternating spatial and temporal transformer blocks to capture joint-level correlations in the second stage. Furthermore, we design a set of loss terms to constrain the task of a high degree of freedom, such that we can exploit the potential of our joint-level modeling. With extensive experiments on the AMASS motion dataset and real-captured data, we validate the effectiveness of our designs and show our proposed method can achieve more accurate and smooth motion compared to existing approaches.

We present TraDE, a self-attention-based architecture for auto-regressive density estimation with continuous and discrete valued data. Our model is trained using a penalized maximum likelihood objective, which ensures that samples from the density estimate resemble the training data distribution. The use of self-attention means that the model need not retain conditional sufficient statistics during the auto-regressive process beyond what is needed for each covariate. On standard tabular and image data benchmarks, TraDE produces significantly better density estimates than existing approaches such as normalizing flow estimators and recurrent auto-regressive models. However log-likelihood on held-out data only partially reflects how useful these estimates are in real-world applications. In order to systematically evaluate density estimators, we present a suite of tasks such as regression using generated samples, out-of-distribution detection, and robustness to noise in the training data and demonstrate that TraDE works well in these scenarios.

Applications in the field of augmented reality or robotics often require joint localisation and 6D pose estimation of multiple objects. However, most algorithms need one network per object class to be trained in order to provide the best results. Analysing all visible objects demands multiple inferences, which is memory and time-consuming. We present a new single-stage architecture called CASAPose that determines 2D-3D correspondences for pose estimation of multiple different objects in RGB images in one pass. It is fast and memory efficient, and achieves high accuracy for multiple objects by exploiting the output of a semantic segmentation decoder as control input to a keypoint recognition decoder via local class-adaptive normalisation. Our new differentiable regression of keypoint locations significantly contributes to a faster closing of the domain gap between real test and synthetic training data. We apply segmentation-aware convolutions and upsampling operations to increase the focus inside the object mask and to reduce mutual interference of occluding objects. For each inserted object, the network grows by only one output segmentation map and a negligible number of parameters. We outperform state-of-the-art approaches in challenging multi-object scenes with inter-object occlusion and synthetic training.

Multi-channel imaging data is a prevalent data format in scientific fields such as astronomy and biology. The structured information and the high dimensionality of these 3-D tensor data makes the analysis an intriguing but challenging topic for statisticians and practitioners. The low-rank scalar-on-tensor regression model, in particular, has received widespread attention and has been re-formulated as a tensor Gaussian Process (Tensor-GP) model with multi-linear kernel in Yu et al. (2018). In this paper, we extend the Tensor-GP model by integrating a dimensionality reduction technique, called tensor contraction, with a Tensor-GP for a scalar-on-tensor regression task with multi-channel imaging data. This is motivated by the solar flare forecasting problem with high dimensional multi-channel imaging data. We first estimate a latent, reduced-size tensor for each data tensor and then apply a multi-linear Tensor-GP on the latent tensor data for prediction. We introduce an anisotropic total-variation regularization when conducting the tensor contraction to obtain a sparse and smooth latent tensor. We then propose an alternating proximal gradient descent algorithm for estimation. We validate our approach via extensive simulation studies and applying it to the solar flare forecasting problem.

We propose Co-op, a novel method for accurately and robustly estimating the 6DoF pose of objects unseen during training from a single RGB image. Our method requires only the CAD model of the target object and can precisely estimate its pose without any additional fine-tuning. While existing model-based methods suffer from inefficiency due to using a large number of templates, our method enables fast and accurate estimation with a small number of templates. This improvement is achieved by finding semi-dense correspondences between the input image and the pre-rendered templates. Our method achieves strong generalization performance by leveraging a hybrid representation that combines patch-level classification and offset regression. Additionally, our pose refinement model estimates probabilistic flow between the input image and the rendered image, refining the initial estimate to an accurate pose using a differentiable PnP layer. We demonstrate that our method not only estimates object poses rapidly but also outperforms existing methods by a large margin on the seven core datasets of the BOP Challenge, achieving state-of-the-art accuracy.

Tracking any given object(s) spatially and temporally is a common purpose in Visual Object Tracking (VOT) and Video Object Segmentation (VOS). Joint tracking and segmentation have been attempted in some studies but they often lack full compatibility of both box and mask in initialization and prediction, and mainly focus on single-object scenarios. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a Multi-object Mask-box Integrated framework for unified Tracking and Segmentation, dubbed MITS. Firstly, the unified identification module is proposed to support both box and mask reference for initialization, where detailed object information is inferred from boxes or directly retained from masks. Additionally, a novel pinpoint box predictor is proposed for accurate multi-object box prediction, facilitating target-oriented representation learning. All target objects are processed simultaneously from encoding to propagation and decoding, as a unified pipeline for VOT and VOS. Experimental results show MITS achieves state-of-the-art performance on both VOT and VOS benchmarks. Notably, MITS surpasses the best prior VOT competitor by around 6% on the GOT-10k test set, and significantly improves the performance of box initialization on VOS benchmarks. The code is available at https://github.com/yoxu515/MITS.

Conventional wisdom suggests that autoregressive models are used to process discrete data. When applied to continuous modalities such as visual data, Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR) typically resorts to quantization-based approaches to cast the data into a discrete space, which can introduce significant information loss. To tackle this issue, we introduce a Continuous VAR framework that enables direct visual autoregressive generation without vector quantization. The underlying theoretical foundation is strictly proper scoring rules, which provide powerful statistical tools capable of evaluating how well a generative model approximates the true distribution. Within this framework, all we need is to select a strictly proper score and set it as the training objective to optimize. We primarily explore a class of training objectives based on the energy score, which is likelihood-free and thus overcomes the difficulty of making probabilistic predictions in the continuous space. Previous efforts on continuous autoregressive generation, such as GIVT and diffusion loss, can also be derived from our framework using other strictly proper scores. Source code: https://github.com/shaochenze/EAR.

Learning feature representations of geographical space is vital for any machine learning model that integrates geolocated data, spanning application domains such as remote sensing, ecology, or epidemiology. Recent work mostly embeds coordinates using sine and cosine projections based on Double Fourier Sphere (DFS) features -- these embeddings assume a rectangular data domain even on global data, which can lead to artifacts, especially at the poles. At the same time, relatively little attention has been paid to the exact design of the neural network architectures these functional embeddings are combined with. This work proposes a novel location encoder for globally distributed geographic data that combines spherical harmonic basis functions, natively defined on spherical surfaces, with sinusoidal representation networks (SirenNets) that can be interpreted as learned Double Fourier Sphere embedding. We systematically evaluate the cross-product of positional embeddings and neural network architectures across various classification and regression benchmarks and synthetic evaluation datasets. In contrast to previous approaches that require the combination of both positional encoding and neural networks to learn meaningful representations, we show that both spherical harmonics and sinusoidal representation networks are competitive on their own but set state-of-the-art performances across tasks when combined. We provide source code at www.github.com/marccoru/locationencoder

Analyzing both temporal and spatial patterns for an accurate forecasting model for financial time series forecasting is a challenge due to the complex nature of temporal-spatial dynamics: time series from different locations often have distinct patterns; and for the same time series, patterns may vary as time goes by. Inspired by the successful applications of deep learning, we propose a new model to resolve the issues of forecasting household leverage in China. Our solution consists of multiple RNN-based layers and an attention layer: each RNN-based layer automatically learns the temporal pattern of a specific series with multivariate exogenous series, and then the attention layer learns the spatial correlative weight and obtains the global representations simultaneously. The results show that the new approach can capture the temporal-spatial dynamics of household leverage well and get more accurate and solid predictive results. More, the simulation also studies show that clustering and choosing correlative series are necessary to obtain accurate forecasting results.

Time-series forecasting is one of the most active research topics in artificial intelligence. Applications in real-world time series should consider two factors for achieving reliable predictions: modeling dynamic dependencies among multiple variables and adjusting the model's intrinsic hyperparameters. A still open gap in that literature is that statistical and ensemble learning approaches systematically present lower predictive performance than deep learning methods. They generally disregard the data sequence aspect entangled with multivariate data represented in more than one time series. Conversely, this work presents a novel neural network architecture for time-series forecasting that combines the power of graph evolution with deep recurrent learning on distinct data distributions; we named our method Recurrent Graph Evolution Neural Network (ReGENN). The idea is to infer multiple multivariate relationships between co-occurring time-series by assuming that the temporal data depends not only on inner variables and intra-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from itself) but also on outer variables and inter-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from other-selves). An extensive set of experiments was conducted comparing ReGENN with dozens of ensemble methods and classical statistical ones, showing sound improvement of up to 64.87% over the competing algorithms. Furthermore, we present an analysis of the intermediate weights arising from ReGENN, showing that by looking at inter and intra-temporal relationships simultaneously, time-series forecasting is majorly improved if paying attention to how multiple multivariate data synchronously evolve.

Pose-based action recognition is predominantly tackled by approaches which treat the input skeleton in a monolithic fashion, i.e. joints in the pose tree are processed as a whole. However, such approaches ignore the fact that action categories are often characterized by localized action dynamics involving only small subsets of part joint groups involving hands (e.g. `Thumbs up') or legs (e.g. `Kicking'). Although part-grouping based approaches exist, each part group is not considered within the global pose frame, causing such methods to fall short. Further, conventional approaches employ independent modality streams (e.g. joint, bone, joint velocity, bone velocity) and train their network multiple times on these streams, which massively increases the number of training parameters. To address these issues, we introduce PSUMNet, a novel approach for scalable and efficient pose-based action recognition. At the representation level, we propose a global frame based part stream approach as opposed to conventional modality based streams. Within each part stream, the associated data from multiple modalities is unified and consumed by the processing pipeline. Experimentally, PSUMNet achieves state of the art performance on the widely used NTURGB+D 60/120 dataset and dense joint skeleton dataset NTU 60-X/120-X. PSUMNet is highly efficient and outperforms competing methods which use 100%-400% more parameters. PSUMNet also generalizes to the SHREC hand gesture dataset with competitive performance. Overall, PSUMNet's scalability, performance and efficiency makes it an attractive choice for action recognition and for deployment on compute-restricted embedded and edge devices. Code and pretrained models can be accessed at https://github.com/skelemoa/psumnet

We introduce a general, flexible, parametric survival modelling framework which encompasses key shapes of hazard function (constant, increasing, decreasing, up-then-down, down-then-up), various common survival distributions (log-logistic, Burr type XII, Weibull, Gompertz), and includes defective distributions (i.e., cure models). This generality is achieved using four basic distributional parameters: two scale-type parameters and two shape parameters. Generalising to covariate dependence, the scale-type regression components correspond to accelerated failure time (AFT) and proportional hazards (PH) models. Therefore, this general formulation unifies the most popular survival models which allows us to consider the practical value of possible modelling choices for survival data. Furthermore, in line with our proposed flexible baseline distribution, we advocate the use of multi-parameter regression in which more than one distributional parameter depends on covariates - rather than the usual convention of having a single covariate-dependent (scale) parameter. While many choices are available, we suggest introducing covariates through just one or other of the two scale parameters, which covers AFT and PH models, in combination with a `power' shape parameter, which allows for more complex non-AFT/non-PH effects, while the other shape parameter remains covariate-independent, and handles automatic selection of the baseline distribution. We explore inferential issues in simulations, both with and without a covariate, with particular focus on evidence concerning the need, or otherwise, to include both AFT and PH parameters. We illustrate the efficacy of our modelling framework by investigating differences between treatment groups using data from a lung cancer study and a melanoma study. Censoring is accommodated throughout.

Conventional supervised learning methods typically assume i.i.d samples and are found to be sensitive to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. We propose Generative Causal Representation Learning (GCRL) which leverages causality to facilitate knowledge transfer under distribution shifts. While we evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed method in human trajectory prediction models, GCRL can be applied to other domains as well. First, we propose a novel causal model that explains the generative factors in motion forecasting datasets using features that are common across all environments and with features that are specific to each environment. Selection variables are used to determine which parts of the model can be directly transferred to a new environment without fine-tuning. Second, we propose an end-to-end variational learning paradigm to learn the causal mechanisms that generate observations from features. GCRL is supported by strong theoretical results that imply identifiability of the causal model under certain assumptions. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world motion forecasting datasets show the robustness and effectiveness of our proposed method for knowledge transfer under zero-shot and low-shot settings by substantially outperforming the prior motion forecasting models on out-of-distribution prediction. Our code is available at https://github.com/sshirahmad/GCRL.

Human pose forecasting garners attention for its diverse applications. However, challenges in modeling the multi-modal nature of human motion and intricate interactions among agents persist, particularly with longer timescales and more agents. In this paper, we propose an interaction-aware trajectory-conditioned long-term multi-agent human pose forecasting model, utilizing a coarse-to-fine prediction approach: multi-modal global trajectories are initially forecasted, followed by respective local pose forecasts conditioned on each mode. In doing so, our Trajectory2Pose model introduces a graph-based agent-wise interaction module for a reciprocal forecast of local motion-conditioned global trajectory and trajectory-conditioned local pose. Our model effectively handles the multi-modality of human motion and the complexity of long-term multi-agent interactions, improving performance in complex environments. Furthermore, we address the lack of long-term (6s+) multi-agent (5+) datasets by constructing a new dataset from real-world images and 2D annotations, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of our proposed model. State-of-the-art prediction performance on both complex and simpler datasets confirms the generalized effectiveness of our method. The code is available at https://github.com/Jaewoo97/T2P.

Stochastic human motion prediction (HMP) has generally been tackled with generative adversarial networks and variational autoencoders. Most prior works aim at predicting highly diverse movements in terms of the skeleton joints' dispersion. This has led to methods predicting fast and motion-divergent movements, which are often unrealistic and incoherent with past motion. Such methods also neglect contexts that need to anticipate diverse low-range behaviors, or actions, with subtle joint displacements. To address these issues, we present BeLFusion, a model that, for the first time, leverages latent diffusion models in HMP to sample from a latent space where behavior is disentangled from pose and motion. As a result, diversity is encouraged from a behavioral perspective. Thanks to our behavior coupler's ability to transfer sampled behavior to ongoing motion, BeLFusion's predictions display a variety of behaviors that are significantly more realistic than the state of the art. To support it, we introduce two metrics, the Area of the Cumulative Motion Distribution, and the Average Pairwise Distance Error, which are correlated to our definition of realism according to a qualitative study with 126 participants. Finally, we prove BeLFusion's generalization power in a new cross-dataset scenario for stochastic HMP.

In this paper, we introduce a method for reconstructing 3D humans from a single image using a biomechanically accurate skeleton model. To achieve this, we train a transformer that takes an image as input and estimates the parameters of the model. Due to the lack of training data for this task, we build a pipeline to produce pseudo ground truth model parameters for single images and implement a training procedure that iteratively refines these pseudo labels. Compared to state-of-the-art methods for 3D human mesh recovery, our model achieves competitive performance on standard benchmarks, while it significantly outperforms them in settings with extreme 3D poses and viewpoints. Additionally, we show that previous reconstruction methods frequently violate joint angle limits, leading to unnatural rotations. In contrast, our approach leverages the biomechanically plausible degrees of freedom making more realistic joint rotation estimates. We validate our approach across multiple human pose estimation benchmarks. We make the code, models and data available at: https://isshikihugh.github.io/HSMR/

Attentional mechanisms are order-invariant. Positional encoding is a crucial component to allow attention-based deep model architectures such as Transformer to address sequences or images where the position of information matters. In this paper, we propose a novel positional encoding method based on learnable Fourier features. Instead of hard-coding each position as a token or a vector, we represent each position, which can be multi-dimensional, as a trainable encoding based on learnable Fourier feature mapping, modulated with a multi-layer perceptron. The representation is particularly advantageous for a spatial multi-dimensional position, e.g., pixel positions on an image, where L_2 distances or more complex positional relationships need to be captured. Our experiments based on several public benchmark tasks show that our learnable Fourier feature representation for multi-dimensional positional encoding outperforms existing methods by both improving the accuracy and allowing faster convergence.

We address the problem of fitting a parametric human body model (SMPL) to point cloud data. Optimization-based methods require careful initialization and are prone to becoming trapped in local optima. Learning-based methods address this but do not generalize well when the input pose is far from those seen during training. For rigid point clouds, remarkable generalization has been achieved by leveraging SE(3)-equivariant networks, but these methods do not work on articulated objects. In this work we extend this idea to human bodies and propose ArtEq, a novel part-based SE(3)-equivariant neural architecture for SMPL model estimation from point clouds. Specifically, we learn a part detection network by leveraging local SO(3) invariance, and regress shape and pose using articulated SE(3) shape-invariant and pose-equivariant networks, all trained end-to-end. Our novel pose regression module leverages the permutation-equivariant property of self-attention layers to preserve rotational equivariance. Experimental results show that ArtEq generalizes to poses not seen during training, outperforming state-of-the-art methods by ~44% in terms of body reconstruction accuracy, without requiring an optimization refinement step. Furthermore, ArtEq is three orders of magnitude faster during inference than prior work and has 97.3% fewer parameters. The code and model are available for research purposes at https://arteq.is.tue.mpg.de.

Survival analysis can sometimes involve individuals who will not experience the event of interest, forming what is known as the cured group. Identifying such individuals is not always possible beforehand, as they provide only right-censored data. Ignoring the presence of the cured group can introduce bias in the final model. This paper presents a method for estimating a semiparametric additive hazards model that accounts for the cured fraction. Unlike regression coefficients in a hazard ratio model, those in an additive hazard model measure hazard differences. The proposed method uses a primal-dual interior point algorithm to obtain constrained maximum penalized likelihood estimates of the model parameters, including the regression coefficients and the baseline hazard, subject to certain non-negativity constraints.

Weighting methods in causal inference have been widely used to achieve a desirable level of covariate balancing. However, the existing weighting methods have desirable theoretical properties only when a certain model, either the propensity score or outcome regression model, is correctly specified. In addition, the corresponding estimators do not behave well for finite samples due to large variance even when the model is correctly specified. In this paper, we consider to use the integral probability metric (IPM), which is a metric between two probability measures, for covariate balancing. Optimal weights are determined so that weighted empirical distributions for the treated and control groups have the smallest IPM value for a given set of discriminators. We prove that the corresponding estimator can be consistent without correctly specifying any model (neither the propensity score nor the outcome regression model). In addition, we empirically show that our proposed method outperforms existing weighting methods with large margins for finite samples.

Constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees for unobserved outcomes is a core problem in modern statistics. Methods for predictive inference have been developed for a wide range of settings, but usually only consider test data points one at a time. Here we study the problem of distribution-free predictive inference for a batch of multiple test points, aiming to construct prediction sets for functions -- such as the mean or median -- of any number of unobserved test datapoints. This setting includes constructing simultaneous prediction sets with a high probability of coverage, and selecting datapoints satisfying a specified condition while controlling the number of false claims. For the general task of predictive inference on a function of a batch of test points, we introduce a methodology called batch predictive inference (batch PI), and provide a distribution-free coverage guarantee under exchangeability of the calibration and test data. Batch PI requires the quantiles of a rank ordering function defined on certain subsets of ranks. While computing these quantiles is NP-hard in general, we show that it can be done efficiently in many cases of interest, most notably for batch score functions with a compositional structure -- which includes examples of interest such as the mean -- via a dynamic programming algorithm that we develop. Batch PI has advantages over naive approaches (such as partitioning the calibration data or directly extending conformal prediction) in many settings, as it can deliver informative prediction sets even using small calibration sample sizes. We illustrate that our procedures provide informative inference across the use cases mentioned above, through experiments on both simulated data and a drug-target interaction dataset.

Because anomalous samples cannot be used for training, many anomaly detection and localization methods use pre-trained networks and non-parametric modeling to estimate encoded feature distribution. However, these methods neglect the impact of position and neighborhood information on the distribution of normal features. To overcome this, we propose a new algorithm, PNI, which estimates the normal distribution using conditional probability given neighborhood features, modeled with a multi-layer perceptron network. Moreover, position information is utilized by creating a histogram of representative features at each position. Instead of simply resizing the anomaly map, the proposed method employs an additional refine network trained on synthetic anomaly images to better interpolate and account for the shape and edge of the input image. We conducted experiments on the MVTec AD benchmark dataset and achieved state-of-the-art performance, with 99.56\% and 98.98\% AUROC scores in anomaly detection and localization, respectively.

Existing novel object 6D pose estimation methods typically rely on CAD models or dense reference views, which are both difficult to acquire. Using only a single reference view is more scalable, but challenging due to large pose discrepancies and limited geometric and spatial information. To address these issues, we propose a Single-Reference-based novel object 6D (SinRef-6D) pose estimation method. Our key idea is to iteratively establish point-wise alignment in the camera coordinate system based on state space models (SSMs). Specifically, iterative camera-space point-wise alignment can effectively handle large pose discrepancies, while our proposed RGB and Points SSMs can capture long-range dependencies and spatial information from a single view, offering linear complexity and superior spatial modeling capability. Once pre-trained on synthetic data, SinRef-6D can estimate the 6D pose of a novel object using only a single reference view, without requiring retraining or a CAD model. Extensive experiments on six popular datasets and real-world robotic scenes demonstrate that we achieve on-par performance with CAD-based and dense reference view-based methods, despite operating in the more challenging single reference setting. Code will be released at https://github.com/CNJianLiu/SinRef-6D.

Time series research has gathered lots of interests in the last decade, especially for Time Series Classification (TSC) and Time Series Forecasting (TSF). Research in TSC has greatly benefited from the University of California Riverside and University of East Anglia (UCR/UEA) Time Series Archives. On the other hand, the advancement in Time Series Forecasting relies on time series forecasting competitions such as the Makridakis competitions, NN3 and NN5 Neural Network competitions, and a few Kaggle competitions. Each year, thousands of papers proposing new algorithms for TSC and TSF have utilized these benchmarking archives. These algorithms are designed for these specific problems, but may not be useful for tasks such as predicting the heart rate of a person using photoplethysmogram (PPG) and accelerometer data. We refer to this problem as Time Series Extrinsic Regression (TSER), where we are interested in a more general methodology of predicting a single continuous value, from univariate or multivariate time series. This prediction can be from the same time series or not directly related to the predictor time series and does not necessarily need to be a future value or depend heavily on recent values. To the best of our knowledge, research into TSER has received much less attention in the time series research community and there are no models developed for general time series extrinsic regression problems. Most models are developed for a specific problem. Therefore, we aim to motivate and support the research into TSER by introducing the first TSER benchmarking archive. This archive contains 19 datasets from different domains, with varying number of dimensions, unequal length dimensions, and missing values. In this paper, we introduce the datasets in this archive and did an initial benchmark on existing models.

In this paper, we propose a unified approach to harness quantum conformal methods for multi-output distributions, with a particular emphasis on two experimental paradigms: (i) a standard 2-qubit circuit scenario producing a four-dimensional outcome distribution, and (ii) a multi-basis measurement setting that concatenates measurement probabilities in different bases (Z, X, Y) into a twelve-dimensional output space. By combining a multioutput regression model (e.g., random forests) with distributional conformal prediction, we validate coverage and interval-set sizes on both simulated quantum data and multi-basis measurement data. Our results confirm that classical conformal prediction can effectively provide coverage guarantees even when the target probabilities derive from inherently quantum processes. Such synergy opens the door to next-generation quantum-classical hybrid frameworks, providing both improved interpretability and rigorous coverage for quantum machine learning tasks. All codes and full reproducible Colab notebooks are made available at https://github.com/detasar/QECMMOU.

Traditional methods for human localization and pose estimation (HPE), which mainly rely on RGB images as an input modality, confront substantial limitations in real-world applications due to privacy concerns. In contrast, radar-based HPE methods emerge as a promising alternative, characterized by distinctive attributes such as through-wall recognition and privacy-preserving, rendering the method more conducive to practical deployments. This paper presents a Radar Tensor-based human pose (RT-Pose) dataset and an open-source benchmarking framework. The RT-Pose dataset comprises 4D radar tensors, LiDAR point clouds, and RGB images, and is collected for a total of 72k frames across 240 sequences with six different complexity-level actions. The 4D radar tensor provides raw spatio-temporal information, differentiating it from other radar point cloud-based datasets. We develop an annotation process using RGB images and LiDAR point clouds to accurately label 3D human skeletons. In addition, we propose HRRadarPose, the first single-stage architecture that extracts the high-resolution representation of 4D radar tensors in 3D space to aid human keypoint estimation. HRRadarPose outperforms previous radar-based HPE work on the RT-Pose benchmark. The overall HRRadarPose performance on the RT-Pose dataset, as reflected in a mean per joint position error (MPJPE) of 9.91cm, indicates the persistent challenges in achieving accurate HPE in complex real-world scenarios. RT-Pose is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/uwipl/RT-Pose.

Neural Posterior Estimation methods for simulation-based inference can be ill-suited for dealing with posterior distributions obtained by conditioning on multiple observations, as they tend to require a large number of simulator calls to learn accurate approximations. In contrast, Neural Likelihood Estimation methods can handle multiple observations at inference time after learning from individual observations, but they rely on standard inference methods, such as MCMC or variational inference, which come with certain performance drawbacks. We introduce a new method based on conditional score modeling that enjoys the benefits of both approaches. We model the scores of the (diffused) posterior distributions induced by individual observations, and introduce a way of combining the learned scores to approximately sample from the target posterior distribution. Our approach is sample-efficient, can naturally aggregate multiple observations at inference time, and avoids the drawbacks of standard inference methods.

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost estimates, and revenue predictions all benefit from being able to quantify the range of possible values accurately. As such, many models have been developed for this problem over many years of research in statistics, machine learning, and related fields. Rather than proposing yet another (new) algorithm for quantile regression we adopt a meta viewpoint: we investigate methods for aggregating any number of conditional quantile models, in order to improve accuracy and robustness. We consider weighted ensembles where weights may vary over not only individual models, but also over quantile levels, and feature values. All of the models we consider in this paper can be fit using modern deep learning toolkits, and hence are widely accessible (from an implementation point of view) and scalable. To improve the accuracy of the predicted quantiles (or equivalently, prediction intervals), we develop tools for ensuring that quantiles remain monotonically ordered, and apply conformal calibration methods. These can be used without any modification of the original library of base models. We also review some basic theory surrounding quantile aggregation and related scoring rules, and contribute a few new results to this literature (for example, the fact that post sorting or post isotonic regression can only improve the weighted interval score). Finally, we provide an extensive suite of empirical comparisons across 34 data sets from two different benchmark repositories.

Denoising diffusion models have shown great promise in human motion synthesis conditioned on natural language descriptions. However, integrating spatial constraints, such as pre-defined motion trajectories and obstacles, remains a challenge despite being essential for bridging the gap between isolated human motion and its surrounding environment. To address this issue, we propose Guided Motion Diffusion (GMD), a method that incorporates spatial constraints into the motion generation process. Specifically, we propose an effective feature projection scheme that manipulates motion representation to enhance the coherency between spatial information and local poses. Together with a new imputation formulation, the generated motion can reliably conform to spatial constraints such as global motion trajectories. Furthermore, given sparse spatial constraints (e.g. sparse keyframes), we introduce a new dense guidance approach to turn a sparse signal, which is susceptible to being ignored during the reverse steps, into denser signals to guide the generated motion to the given constraints. Our extensive experiments justify the development of GMD, which achieves a significant improvement over state-of-the-art methods in text-based motion generation while allowing control of the synthesized motions with spatial constraints.

Detection of human body and its parts (e.g., head or hands) has been intensively studied. However, most of these CNNs-based detectors are trained independently, making it difficult to associate detected parts with body. In this paper, we focus on the joint detection of human body and its corresponding parts. Specifically, we propose a novel extended object representation integrating center-offsets of body parts, and construct a dense one-stage generic Body-Part Joint Detector (BPJDet). In this way, body-part associations are neatly embedded in a unified object representation containing both semantic and geometric contents. Therefore, we can perform multi-loss optimizations to tackle multi-tasks synergistically. BPJDet does not suffer from error-prone post matching, and keeps a better trade-off between speed and accuracy. Furthermore, BPJDet can be generalized to detect any one or more body parts. To verify the superiority of BPJDet, we conduct experiments on three body-part datasets (CityPersons, CrowdHuman and BodyHands) and one body-parts dataset COCOHumanParts. While keeping high detection accuracy, BPJDet achieves state-of-the-art association performance on all datasets comparing with its counterparts. Besides, we show benefits of advanced body-part association capability by improving performance of two representative downstream applications: accurate crowd head detection and hand contact estimation. Code is released in https://github.com/hnuzhy/BPJDet.

We show how to obtain improved active learning methods in the agnostic (adversarial noise) setting by combining marginal leverage score sampling with non-independent sampling strategies that promote spatial coverage. In particular, we propose an easily implemented method based on the pivotal sampling algorithm, which we test on problems motivated by learning-based methods for parametric PDEs and uncertainty quantification. In comparison to independent sampling, our method reduces the number of samples needed to reach a given target accuracy by up to 50%. We support our findings with two theoretical results. First, we show that any non-independent leverage score sampling method that obeys a weak one-sided ell_{infty} independence condition (which includes pivotal sampling) can actively learn d dimensional linear functions with O(dlog d) samples, matching independent sampling. This result extends recent work on matrix Chernoff bounds under ell_{infty} independence, and may be of interest for analyzing other sampling strategies beyond pivotal sampling. Second, we show that, for the important case of polynomial regression, our pivotal method obtains an improved bound of O(d) samples.

Joint space and task space control are the two dominant action modes for controlling robot arms within the robot learning literature. Actions in joint space provide precise control over the robot's pose, but tend to suffer from inefficient training; actions in task space boast data-efficient training but sacrifice the ability to perform tasks in confined spaces due to limited control over the full joint configuration. This work analyses the criteria for designing action spaces for robot manipulation and introduces ER (End-effector Redundancy), a novel action space formulation that, by addressing the redundancies present in the manipulator, aims to combine the advantages of both joint and task spaces, offering fine-grained comprehensive control with overactuated robot arms whilst achieving highly efficient robot learning. We present two implementations of ER, ERAngle (ERA) and ERJoint (ERJ), and we show that ERJ in particular demonstrates superior performance across multiple settings, especially when precise control over the robot configuration is required. We validate our results both in simulated and real robotic environments.

Sequential learning with Gaussian processes (GPs) is challenging when access to past data is limited, for example, in continual and active learning. In such cases, errors can accumulate over time due to inaccuracies in the posterior, hyperparameters, and inducing points, making accurate learning challenging. Here, we present a method to keep all such errors in check using the recently proposed dual sparse variational GP. Our method enables accurate inference for generic likelihoods and improves learning by actively building and updating a memory of past data. We demonstrate its effectiveness in several applications involving Bayesian optimization, active learning, and continual learning.

This article introduces Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) with Distribution-Valued Outcomes (R3D), extending the standard RDD framework to settings where the outcome is a distribution rather than a scalar. Such settings arise when treatment is assigned at a higher level of aggregation than the outcome-for example, when a subsidy is allocated based on a firm-level revenue cutoff while the outcome of interest is the distribution of employee wages within the firm. Since standard RDD methods cannot accommodate such two-level randomness, I propose a novel approach based on random distributions. The target estimand is a "local average quantile treatment effect", which averages across random quantiles. To estimate this target, I introduce two related approaches: one that extends local polynomial regression to random quantiles and another based on local Fr\'echet regression, a form of functional regression. For both estimators, I establish asymptotic normality and develop uniform, debiased confidence bands together with a data-driven bandwidth selection procedure. Simulations validate these theoretical properties and show existing methods to be biased and inconsistent in this setting. I then apply the proposed methods to study the effects of gubernatorial party control on within-state income distributions in the US, using a close-election design. The results suggest a classic equality-efficiency tradeoff under Democratic governorship, driven by reductions in income at the top of the distribution.

Markerless Mobile Augmented Reality (AR) aims to anchor digital content in the physical world without using specific 2D or 3D objects. Absolute Pose Regressors (APR) are end-to-end machine learning solutions that infer the device's pose from a single monocular image. Thanks to their low computation cost, they can be directly executed on the constrained hardware of mobile AR devices. However, APR methods tend to yield significant inaccuracies for input images that are too distant from the training set. This paper introduces KS-APR, a pipeline that assesses the reliability of an estimated pose with minimal overhead by combining the inference results of the APR and the prior images in the training set. Mobile AR systems tend to rely upon visual-inertial odometry to track the relative pose of the device during the experience. As such, KS-APR favours reliability over frequency, discarding unreliable poses. This pipeline can integrate most existing APR methods to improve accuracy by filtering unreliable images with their pose estimates. We implement the pipeline on three types of APR models on indoor and outdoor datasets. The median error on position and orientation is reduced for all models, and the proportion of large errors is minimized across datasets. Our method enables state-of-the-art APRs such as DFNetdm to outperform single-image and sequential APR methods. These results demonstrate the scalability and effectiveness of KS-APR for visual localization tasks that do not require one-shot decisions.

Machine learning (ML) holds great potential for accurately forecasting treatment outcomes over time, which could ultimately enable the adoption of more individualized treatment strategies in many practical applications. However, a significant challenge that has been largely overlooked by the ML literature on this topic is the presence of informative sampling in observational data. When instances are observed irregularly over time, sampling times are typically not random, but rather informative -- depending on the instance's characteristics, past outcomes, and administered treatments. In this work, we formalize informative sampling as a covariate shift problem and show that it can prohibit accurate estimation of treatment outcomes if not properly accounted for. To overcome this challenge, we present a general framework for learning treatment outcomes in the presence of informative sampling using inverse intensity-weighting, and propose a novel method, TESAR-CDE, that instantiates this framework using Neural CDEs. Using a simulation environment based on a clinical use case, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in learning under informative sampling.

We revisit the structure learning problem for dynamic Bayesian networks and propose a method that simultaneously estimates contemporaneous (intra-slice) and time-lagged (inter-slice) relationships between variables in a time-series. Our approach is score-based, and revolves around minimizing a penalized loss subject to an acyclicity constraint. To solve this problem, we leverage a recent algebraic result characterizing the acyclicity constraint as a smooth equality constraint. The resulting algorithm, which we call DYNOTEARS, outperforms other methods on simulated data, especially in high-dimensions as the number of variables increases. We also apply this algorithm on real datasets from two different domains, finance and molecular biology, and analyze the resulting output. Compared to state-of-the-art methods for learning dynamic Bayesian networks, our method is both scalable and accurate on real data. The simple formulation and competitive performance of our method make it suitable for a variety of problems where one seeks to learn connections between variables across time.

Tracking by detection has been the prevailing paradigm in the field of Multi-object Tracking (MOT). These methods typically rely on the Kalman Filter to estimate the future locations of objects, assuming linear object motion. However, they fall short when tracking objects exhibiting nonlinear and diverse motion in scenarios like dancing and sports. In addition, there has been limited focus on utilizing learning-based motion predictors in MOT. To address these challenges, we resort to exploring data-driven motion prediction methods. Inspired by the great expectation of state space models (SSMs), such as Mamba, in long-term sequence modeling with near-linear complexity, we introduce a Mamba-based motion model named Mamba moTion Predictor (MTP). MTP is designed to model the complex motion patterns of objects like dancers and athletes. Specifically, MTP takes the spatial-temporal location dynamics of objects as input, captures the motion pattern using a bi-Mamba encoding layer, and predicts the next motion. In real-world scenarios, objects may be missed due to occlusion or motion blur, leading to premature termination of their trajectories. To tackle this challenge, we further expand the application of MTP. We employ it in an autoregressive way to compensate for missing observations by utilizing its own predictions as inputs, thereby contributing to more consistent trajectories. Our proposed tracker, MambaTrack, demonstrates advanced performance on benchmarks such as Dancetrack and SportsMOT, which are characterized by complex motion and severe occlusion.

Camera localization, i.e., camera pose regression, represents an important task in computer vision since it has many practical applications such as in the context of intelligent vehicles and their localization. Having reliable estimates of the regression uncertainties is also important, as it would allow us to catch dangerous localization failures. In the literature, uncertainty estimation in Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) is often performed through sampling methods, such as Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD) and Deep Ensemble (DE), at the expense of undesirable execution time or an increase in hardware resources. In this work, we considered an uncertainty estimation approach named Deep Evidential Regression (DER) that avoids any sampling technique, providing direct uncertainty estimates. Our goal is to provide a systematic approach to intercept localization failures of camera localization systems based on DNNs architectures, by analyzing the generated uncertainties. We propose to exploit CMRNet, a DNN approach for multi-modal image to LiDAR map registration, by modifying its internal configuration to allow for extensive experimental activity on the KITTI dataset. The experimental section highlights CMRNet's major flaws and proves that our proposal does not compromise the original localization performances but also provides, at the same time, the necessary introspection measures that would allow end-users to act accordingly.

In V2X collaborative perception, the domain gaps between heterogeneous nodes pose a significant challenge for effective information fusion. Pose errors arising from latency and GPS localization noise further exacerbate the issue by leading to feature misalignment. To overcome these challenges, we propose V2X-DGPE, a high-accuracy and robust V2X feature-level collaborative perception framework. V2X-DGPE employs a Knowledge Distillation Framework and a Feature Compensation Module to learn domain-invariant representations from multi-source data, effectively reducing the feature distribution gap between vehicles and roadside infrastructure. Historical information is utilized to provide the model with a more comprehensive understanding of the current scene. Furthermore, a Collaborative Fusion Module leverages a heterogeneous self-attention mechanism to extract and integrate heterogeneous representations from vehicles and infrastructure. To address pose errors, V2X-DGPE introduces a deformable attention mechanism, enabling the model to adaptively focus on critical parts of the input features by dynamically offsetting sampling points. Extensive experiments on the real-world DAIR-V2X dataset demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms existing approaches, achieving state-of-the-art detection performance. The code is available at https://github.com/wangsch10/V2X-DGPE.

We present Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost), an algorithm for generic probabilistic prediction via gradient boosting. Typical regression models return a point estimate, conditional on covariates, but probabilistic regression models output a full probability distribution over the outcome space, conditional on the covariates. This allows for predictive uncertainty estimation -- crucial in applications like healthcare and weather forecasting. NGBoost generalizes gradient boosting to probabilistic regression by treating the parameters of the conditional distribution as targets for a multiparameter boosting algorithm. Furthermore, we show how the Natural Gradient is required to correct the training dynamics of our multiparameter boosting approach. NGBoost can be used with any base learner, any family of distributions with continuous parameters, and any scoring rule. NGBoost matches or exceeds the performance of existing methods for probabilistic prediction while offering additional benefits in flexibility, scalability, and usability. An open-source implementation is available at github.com/stanfordmlgroup/ngboost.

In existing joint detection and tracking methods, pairwise relational features are used to match previous tracklets to current detections. However, the features may not be discriminative enough for a tracker to identify a target from a large number of detections. Selecting only high-scored detections for tracking may lead to missed detections whose confidence score is low. Consequently, in the online setting, this results in disconnections of tracklets which cannot be recovered. In this regard, we present Sparse Graph Tracker (SGT), a novel online graph tracker using higher-order relational features which are more discriminative by aggregating the features of neighboring detections and their relations. SGT converts video data into a graph where detections, their connections, and the relational features of two connected nodes are represented by nodes, edges, and edge features, respectively. The strong edge features allow SGT to track targets with tracking candidates selected by top-K scored detections with large K. As a result, even low-scored detections can be tracked, and the missed detections are also recovered. The robustness of K value is shown through the extensive experiments. In the MOT16/17/20 and HiEve Challenge, SGT outperforms the state-of-the-art trackers with real-time inference speed. Especially, a large improvement in MOTA is shown in the MOT20 and HiEve Challenge. Code is available at https://github.com/HYUNJS/SGT.

Methods for video motion prediction either estimate jointly the instantaneous motion of all points in a given video frame using optical flow or independently track the motion of individual points throughout the video. The latter is true even for powerful deep-learning methods that can track points through occlusions. Tracking points individually ignores the strong correlation that can exist between the points, for instance, because they belong to the same physical object, potentially harming performance. In this paper, we thus propose CoTracker, an architecture that jointly tracks multiple points throughout an entire video. This architecture combines several ideas from the optical flow and tracking literature in a new, flexible and powerful design. It is based on a transformer network that models the correlation of different points in time via specialised attention layers. The transformer iteratively updates an estimate of several trajectories. It can be applied in a sliding-window manner to very long videos, for which we engineer an unrolled training loop. It can track from one to several points jointly and supports adding new points to track at any time. The result is a flexible and powerful tracking algorithm that outperforms state-of-the-art methods in almost all benchmarks.

Domain adaptation methods for 2D human pose estimation typically require continuous access to the source data during adaptation, which can be challenging due to privacy, memory, or computational constraints. To address this limitation, we focus on the task of source-free domain adaptation for pose estimation, where a source model must adapt to a new target domain using only unlabeled target data. Although recent advances have introduced source-free methods for classification tasks, extending them to the regression task of pose estimation is non-trivial. In this paper, we present Prior-guided Self-training (POST), a pseudo-labeling approach that builds on the popular Mean Teacher framework to compensate for the distribution shift. POST leverages prediction-level and feature-level consistency between a student and teacher model against certain image transformations. In the absence of source data, POST utilizes a human pose prior that regularizes the adaptation process by directing the model to generate more accurate and anatomically plausible pose pseudo-labels. Despite being simple and intuitive, our framework can deliver significant performance gains compared to applying the source model directly to the target data, as demonstrated in our extensive experiments and ablation studies. In fact, our approach achieves comparable performance to recent state-of-the-art methods that use source data for adaptation.

Mehta and Panigrahi (2012) proposed Online Matching with Stochastic Rewards, which generalizes the Online Bipartite Matching problem of Karp, Vazirani, and Vazirani (1990) by associating the edges with success probabilities. This new feature captures the pay-per-click model in online advertising. Recently, Huang and Zhang (2020) studied this problem under the online primal dual framework using the Configuration Linear Program (LP), and got the best known competitive ratios of the Stochastic Balance algorithm. Their work suggests that the more expressive Configuration LP is more suitable for this problem than the Matching LP. This paper advances the theory of Configuration LP in two directions. Our technical contribution includes a characterization of the joint matching outcome of an offline vertex and all its neighbors. This characterization may be of independent interest, and is aligned with the spirit of Configuration LP. By contrast, previous analyses of Ranking generally focus on only one neighbor. Second, we designed a Stochastic Configuration LP that captures a stochastic benchmark proposed by Goyal and Udwani (2020), who used a Path-based LP. The Stochastic Configuration LP is smaller and simpler than the Path-based LP. Moreover, using the new LP we improved the competitive ratio of Stochastic Balance from 0.596 to 0.611 when the success probabilities are infinitesimal, and to 0.613 when the success probabilities are further equal.

Current self-supervised algorithms commonly rely on transformations such as data augmentation and masking to learn visual representations. This is achieved by enforcing invariance or equivariance with respect to these transformations after encoding two views of an image. This dominant two-view paradigm often limits the flexibility of learned representations for downstream adaptation by creating performance trade-offs between high-level invariance-demanding tasks such as image classification and more fine-grained equivariance-related tasks. In this work, we proposes seq-JEPA, a world modeling framework that introduces architectural inductive biases into joint-embedding predictive architectures to resolve this trade-off. Without relying on dual equivariance predictors or loss terms, seq-JEPA simultaneously learns two architecturally segregated representations: one equivariant to specified transformations and another invariant to them. To do so, our model processes short sequences of different views (observations) of inputs. Each encoded view is concatenated with an embedding of the relative transformation (action) that produces the next observation in the sequence. These view-action pairs are passed through a transformer encoder that outputs an aggregate representation. A predictor head then conditions this aggregate representation on the upcoming action to predict the representation of the next observation. Empirically, seq-JEPA demonstrates strong performance on both equivariant and invariant benchmarks without sacrificing one for the other. Furthermore, it excels at tasks that inherently require aggregating a sequence of observations, such as path integration across actions and predictive learning across eye movements.

Modeling the hand-object (HO) interaction not only requires estimation of the HO pose, but also pays attention to the contact due to their interaction. Significant progress has been made in estimating hand and object separately with deep learning methods, simultaneous HO pose estimation and contact modeling has not yet been fully explored. In this paper, we present an explicit contact representation namely Contact Potential Field (CPF), and a learning-fitting hybrid framework namely MIHO to Modeling the Interaction of Hand and Object. In CPF, we treat each contacting HO vertex pair as a spring-mass system. Hence the whole system forms a potential field with minimal elastic energy at the grasp position. Extensive experiments on the two commonly used benchmarks have demonstrated that our method can achieve state-of-the-art in several reconstruction metrics, and allow us to produce more physically plausible HO pose even when the ground-truth exhibits severe interpenetration or disjointedness. Our code is available at https://github.com/lixiny/CPF.