new

Get trending papers in your email inbox!

Subscribe

Daily Papers

byAK and the research community

Oct 1

Upsample or Upweight? Balanced Training on Heavily Imbalanced Datasets

Data availability across domains often follows a long-tail distribution: a few domains have abundant data, while most face dat . a scarcity. This imbalance poses challenges in training language models uniformly across all domains. In our study, we focus on multilingual settings, where data sizes vary significantly between high- and low-resource languages. Common strategies to address this include upsampling low-resource languages (Temperature Sampling) or upweighting their loss (Scalarization). Although often considered equivalent, this assumption has not been proven, which motivates our study. Through both theoretical and empirical analysis, we identify the conditions under which these approaches are equivalent and when they diverge. Specifically, we demonstrate that these two methods are equivalent under full gradient descent, but this equivalence breaks down with stochastic gradient descent. Empirically, we observe that Temperature Sampling converges more quickly but is prone to overfitting. We argue that this faster convergence is likely due to the lower variance in gradient estimations, as shown theoretically. Based on these insights, we propose Cooldown, a strategy that reduces sampling temperature during training, accelerating convergence without overfitting to low-resource languages. Our method is competitive with existing data re-weighting and offers computational efficiency.

From Uniform to Heterogeneous: Tailoring Policy Optimization to Every Token's Nature

Reinforcement Learning has emerged as the fundamental technique for enhancing reasoning in LLMs. However, existing algorithms apply uniform optimization to all tokens, ignoring their different roles in reasoning process. To address this limitation, we introduce Heterogeneous Adaptive Policy Optimization (HAPO), a comprehensive token-aware algorithm that dynamically adapts optimization based on token entropy. For rollout sampling, we propose Adaptive Temperature Sampling, which adjusts sampling temperature in real time, promoting exploration at high-entropy tokens while preserving coherence at low-entropy ones. For advantage calculation, we introduce Token Level Group Average that normalizes advantages at token level, jointly accounting for sequence-length as in token-mean loss while preserving non-biased treatment. We then develop Differential Advantage Redistribution that leverages entropy and importance ratios to modulate rewards-adjusting updates for tokens with clear signals. For clipping loss, we design Asymmetric Adaptive Clipping, allowing aggressive probability reduction for noisy low-entropy tokens while enabling exploration for high-entropy tokens. Through systematic investigation between entropy and training dynamics, we embedded token-level treatment into every stages to achieve fine-grained control. Extensive experiments demonstrate that HAPO consistently outperforms DAPO across multiple model scales. Our code can be found in https://github.com/starriver030515/HAPO.

Mirostat: A Neural Text Decoding Algorithm that Directly Controls Perplexity

Neural text decoding is important for generating high-quality texts using language models. To generate high-quality text, popular decoding algorithms like top-k, top-p (nucleus), and temperature-based sampling truncate or distort the unreliable low probability tail of the language model. Though these methods generate high-quality text after parameter tuning, they are ad hoc. Not much is known about the control they provide over the statistics of the output, which is important since recent reports show text quality is highest for a specific range of likelihoods. Here, first we provide a theoretical analysis of perplexity in top-k, top-p, and temperature sampling, finding that cross-entropy behaves approximately linearly as a function of p in top-p sampling whereas it is a nonlinear function of k in top-k sampling, under Zipfian statistics. We use this analysis to design a feedback-based adaptive top-k text decoding algorithm called mirostat that generates text (of any length) with a predetermined value of perplexity, and thereby high-quality text without any tuning. Experiments show that for low values of k and p in top-k and top-p sampling, perplexity drops significantly with generated text length, which is also correlated with excessive repetitions in the text (the boredom trap). On the other hand, for large values of k and p, we find that perplexity increases with generated text length, which is correlated with incoherence in the text (confusion trap). Mirostat avoids both traps: experiments show that cross-entropy has a near-linear relation with repetition in generated text. This relation is almost independent of the sampling method but slightly dependent on the model used. Hence, for a given language model, control over perplexity also gives control over repetitions. Experiments with human raters for fluency, coherence, and quality further verify our findings.

Potential and Limitation of High-Frequency Cores and Caches

This paper explores the potential of cryogenic semiconductor computing and superconductor electronics as promising alternatives to traditional semiconductor devices. As semiconductor devices face challenges such as increased leakage currents and reduced performance at higher temperatures, these novel technologies offer high performance and low power computation. Conventional semiconductor electronics operating at cryogenic temperatures (below -150{\deg}C or 123.15 K) can benefit from reduced leakage currents and improved electron mobility. On the other hand, superconductor electronics, operating below 10 K, allow electrons to flow without resistance, offering the potential for ultra-low-power, high-speed computation. This study presents a comprehensive performance modeling and analysis of these technologies and provides insights into their potential benefits and limitations. We implement models of in-order and out-of-order cores operating at high clock frequencies associated with superconductor electronics and cryogenic semiconductor computing in gem5. We evaluate the performance of these components using workloads representative of real-world applications like NPB, SPEC CPU2006, and GAPBS. Our results show the potential speedups achievable by these components and the limitations posed by cache bandwidth. This work provides valuable insights into the performance implications and design trade-offs associated with cryogenic and superconductor technologies, laying the foundation for future research in this field using gem5.

Weighted least-squares approximation with determinantal point processes and generalized volume sampling

We consider the problem of approximating a function from L^2 by an element of a given m-dimensional space V_m, associated with some feature map varphi, using evaluations of the function at random points x_1,dots,x_n. After recalling some results on optimal weighted least-squares using independent and identically distributed points, we consider weighted least-squares using projection determinantal point processes (DPP) or volume sampling. These distributions introduce dependence between the points that promotes diversity in the selected features varphi(x_i). We first provide a generalized version of volume-rescaled sampling yielding quasi-optimality results in expectation with a number of samples n = O(mlog(m)), that means that the expected L^2 error is bounded by a constant times the best approximation error in L^2. Also, further assuming that the function is in some normed vector space H continuously embedded in L^2, we further prove that the approximation is almost surely bounded by the best approximation error measured in the H-norm. This includes the cases of functions from L^infty or reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Finally, we present an alternative strategy consisting in using independent repetitions of projection DPP (or volume sampling), yielding similar error bounds as with i.i.d. or volume sampling, but in practice with a much lower number of samples. Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the different strategies.

Evaluating Binary Decision Biases in Large Language Models: Implications for Fair Agent-Based Financial Simulations

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being used to simulate human-like decision making in agent-based financial market models (ABMs). As models become more powerful and accessible, researchers can now incorporate individual LLM decisions into ABM environments. However, integration may introduce inherent biases that need careful evaluation. In this paper we test three state-of-the-art GPT models for bias using two model sampling approaches: one-shot and few-shot API queries. We observe significant variations in distributions of outputs between specific models, and model sub versions, with GPT-4o-Mini-2024-07-18 showing notably better performance (32-43% yes responses) compared to GPT-4-0125-preview's extreme bias (98-99% yes responses). We show that sampling methods and model sub-versions significantly impact results: repeated independent API calls produce different distributions compared to batch sampling within a single call. While no current GPT model can simultaneously achieve a uniform distribution and Markovian properties in one-shot testing, few-shot sampling can approach uniform distributions under certain conditions. We explore the Temperature parameter, providing a definition and comparative results. We further compare our results to true random binary series and test specifically for the common human bias of Negative Recency - finding LLMs have a mixed ability to 'beat' humans in this one regard. These findings emphasise the critical importance of careful LLM integration into ABMs for financial markets and more broadly.

AceReason-Nemotron 1.1: Advancing Math and Code Reasoning through SFT and RL Synergy

In this work, we investigate the synergy between supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and reinforcement learning (RL) in developing strong reasoning models. We begin by curating the SFT training data through two scaling strategies: increasing the number of collected prompts and the number of generated responses per prompt. Both approaches yield notable improvements in reasoning performance, with scaling the number of prompts resulting in more substantial gains. We then explore the following questions regarding the synergy between SFT and RL: (i) Does a stronger SFT model consistently lead to better final performance after large-scale RL training? (ii) How can we determine an appropriate sampling temperature during RL training to effectively balance exploration and exploitation for a given SFT initialization? Our findings suggest that (i) holds true, provided effective RL training is conducted, particularly when the sampling temperature is carefully chosen to maintain the temperature-adjusted entropy around 0.3, a setting that strikes a good balance between exploration and exploitation. Notably, the performance gap between initial SFT models narrows significantly throughout the RL process. Leveraging a strong SFT foundation and insights into the synergistic interplay between SFT and RL, our AceReason-Nemotron-1.1 7B model significantly outperforms AceReason-Nemotron-1.0 and achieves new state-of-the-art performance among Qwen2.5-7B-based reasoning models on challenging math and code benchmarks, thereby demonstrating the effectiveness of our post-training recipe. We release the model and data at: https://huggingface.co/nvidia/AceReason-Nemotron-1.1-7B

Feedback Friction: LLMs Struggle to Fully Incorporate External Feedback

Recent studies have shown LLMs possess some ability to improve their responses when given external feedback. However, it remains unclear how effectively and thoroughly these models can incorporate extrinsic feedback. In an ideal scenario, if LLMs receive near-perfect and complete feedback, we would expect them to fully integrate the feedback and change their incorrect answers to correct ones. In this paper, we systematically investigate LLMs' ability to incorporate feedback by designing a controlled experimental environment. For each problem, a solver model attempts a solution, then a feedback generator with access to near-complete ground-truth answers produces targeted feedback, after which the solver tries again. We evaluate this pipeline across a diverse range of tasks, including math reasoning, knowledge reasoning, scientific reasoning, and general multi-domain evaluations with state-of-the-art language models including Claude 3.7 (with and without extended thinking). Surprisingly, even under these near-ideal conditions, solver models consistently show resistance to feedback, a limitation that we term FEEDBACK FRICTION. To mitigate this limitation, we experiment with sampling-based strategies like progressive temperature increases and explicit rejection of previously attempted incorrect answers, which yield improvements but still fail to help models achieve target performance. We also perform a rigorous exploration of potential causes of FEEDBACK FRICTION, ruling out factors such as model overconfidence and data familiarity. We hope that highlighting this issue in LLMs and ruling out several apparent causes will help future research in self-improvement.

Complex-valued neural networks to speed-up MR Thermometry during Hyperthermia using Fourier PD and PDUNet

Hyperthermia (HT) in combination with radio- and/or chemotherapy has become an accepted cancer treatment for distinct solid tumour entities. In HT, tumour tissue is exogenously heated to temperatures between 39 and 43 ^circC for 60 minutes. Temperature monitoring can be performed non-invasively using dynamic magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). However, the slow nature of MRI leads to motion artefacts in the images due to the movements of patients during image acquisition. By discarding parts of the data, the speed of the acquisition can be increased - known as undersampling. However, due to the invalidation of the Nyquist criterion, the acquired images might be blurry and can also produce aliasing artefacts. The aim of this work was, therefore, to reconstruct highly undersampled MR thermometry acquisitions with better resolution and with fewer artefacts compared to conventional methods. The use of deep learning in the medical field has emerged in recent times, and various studies have shown that deep learning has the potential to solve inverse problems such as MR image reconstruction. However, most of the published work only focuses on the magnitude images, while the phase images are ignored, which are fundamental requirements for MR thermometry. This work, for the first time, presents deep learning-based solutions for reconstructing undersampled MR thermometry data. Two different deep learning models have been employed here, the Fourier Primal-Dual network and the Fourier Primal-Dual UNet, to reconstruct highly undersampled complex images of MR thermometry. The method reduced the temperature difference between the undersampled MRIs and the fully sampled MRIs from 1.3 ^circC to 0.6 ^circC in full volume and 0.49 ^circC to 0.06 ^circC in the tumour region for an acceleration factor of 10.

Efficient estimation of multiple expectations with the same sample by adaptive importance sampling and control variates

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

Protosolar D-to-H abundance and one part-per-billion PH_{3} in the coldest brown dwarf

The coldest Y spectral type brown dwarfs are similar in mass and temperature to cool and warm (sim200 -- 400 K) giant exoplanets. We can therefore use their atmospheres as proxies for planetary atmospheres, testing our understanding of physics and chemistry for these complex, cool worlds. At these cold temperatures, their atmospheres are cold enough for water clouds to form, and chemical timescales increase, increasing the likelihood of disequilibrium chemistry compared to warmer classes of planets. JWST observations are revolutionizing the characterization of these worlds with high signal-to-noise, moderate resolution near- and mid-infrared spectra. The spectra have been used to measure the abundances of prominent species like water, methane, and ammonia; species that trace chemical reactions like carbon monoxide; and even isotopologues of carbon monoxide and ammonia. Here, we present atmospheric retrieval results using both published fixed-slit (GTO program 1230) and new averaged time series observations (GO program 2327) of the coldest known Y dwarf, WISE 0855-0714 (using NIRSpec G395M spectra), which has an effective temperature of sim 264 K. We present a detection of deuterium in an atmosphere outside of the solar system via a relative measurement of deuterated methane (CH_{3}D) and standard methane. From this, we infer the D/H ratio of a substellar object outside the solar system for the first time. We also present a well-constrained part-per-billion abundance of phosphine (PH_{3}). We discuss our interpretation of these results and the implications for brown dwarf and giant exoplanet formation and evolution.

Cautious Next Token Prediction

Next token prediction paradigm has been prevailing for autoregressive models in the era of LLMs. The current default sampling choice for popular LLMs is temperature scaling together with nucleus sampling to balance diversity and coherence. Nevertheless, such approach leads to inferior performance in various NLP tasks when the model is not certain about testing questions. To this end, we propose a brand new training-free decoding strategy, dubbed as Cautious Next Token Prediction (CNTP). In the decoding process, if the model has comparatively high prediction entropy at a certain step, we sample multiple trials starting from the step independently and stop when encountering any punctuation. Then we select the trial with the lowest perplexity score viewed as the most probable and reliable trial path given the model's capacity. The trial number is negatively correlated with the prediction confidence, i.e., the less confident the model is, the more trials it should sample. This is consistent with human beings' behaviour: when feeling uncertain or unconfident, one tends to think more creatively, exploring multiple thinking paths, to cautiously select the path one feels most confident about. Extensive experiments on both LLMs and MLLMs show that our proposed CNTP approach outperforms existing standard decoding strategies consistently by a clear margin. Moreover, the integration of CNTP with self consistency can further improve over vanilla self consistency. We believe our proposed CNTP has the potential to become one of the default choices for LLM decoding. Code is available at https://github.com/wyzjack/CNTP.

Systematic Optimization of Open Source Large Language Models for Mathematical Reasoning

This paper presents a practical investigation into fine-tuning model parameters for mathematical reasoning tasks through experimenting with various configurations including randomness control, reasoning depth, and sampling strategies, careful tuning demonstrates substantial improvements in efficiency as well as performance. A holistically optimized framework is introduced for five state-of-the-art models on mathematical reasoning tasks, exhibiting significant performance boosts while maintaining solution correctness. Through systematic parameter optimization across Qwen2.5-72B, Llama-3.1-70B, DeepSeek-V3, Mixtral-8x22B, and Yi-Lightning, consistent efficiency gains are demonstrated with 100% optimization success rate. The methodology achieves an average 29.4% reduction in computational cost and 23.9% improvement in inference speed across all tested models. This framework systematically searches parameter spaces including temperature (0.1-0.5), reasoning steps (4-12), planning periods (1-4), and nucleus sampling (0.85-0.98), determining optimal configurations through testing on mathematical reasoning benchmarks. Critical findings show that lower temperature regimes (0.1-0.4) and reduced reasoning steps (4-6) consistently enhance efficiency without compromising accuracy. DeepSeek-V3 achieves the highest accuracy at 98%, while Mixtral-8x22B delivers the most cost-effective performance at 361.5 tokens per accurate response. Key contributions include: (1) the first comprehensive optimization study for five diverse SOTA models in mathematical reasoning, (2) a standardized production-oriented parameter optimization framework, (3) discovery of universal optimization trends applicable across model architectures, and (4) production-ready configurations with extensive performance characterization.

Feynman-Kac Correctors in Diffusion: Annealing, Guidance, and Product of Experts

While score-based generative models are the model of choice across diverse domains, there are limited tools available for controlling inference-time behavior in a principled manner, e.g. for composing multiple pretrained models. Existing classifier-free guidance methods use a simple heuristic to mix conditional and unconditional scores to approximately sample from conditional distributions. However, such methods do not approximate the intermediate distributions, necessitating additional 'corrector' steps. In this work, we provide an efficient and principled method for sampling from a sequence of annealed, geometric-averaged, or product distributions derived from pretrained score-based models. We derive a weighted simulation scheme which we call Feynman-Kac Correctors (FKCs) based on the celebrated Feynman-Kac formula by carefully accounting for terms in the appropriate partial differential equations (PDEs). To simulate these PDEs, we propose Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) resampling algorithms that leverage inference-time scaling to improve sampling quality. We empirically demonstrate the utility of our methods by proposing amortized sampling via inference-time temperature annealing, improving multi-objective molecule generation using pretrained models, and improving classifier-free guidance for text-to-image generation. Our code is available at https://github.com/martaskrt/fkc-diffusion.

To Cool or not to Cool? Temperature Network Meets Large Foundation Models via DRO

The temperature parameter plays a profound role during training and/or inference with large foundation models (LFMs) such as large language models (LLMs) and CLIP models. Particularly, it adjusts the logits in the softmax function in LLMs, which is crucial for next token generation, and it scales the similarities in the contrastive loss for training CLIP models. A significant question remains: Is it viable to learn a neural network to predict a personalized temperature of any input data for enhancing LFMs"? In this paper, we present a principled framework for learning a small yet generalizable temperature prediction network (TempNet) to improve LFMs. Our solution is composed of a novel learning framework with a robust loss underpinned by constrained distributionally robust optimization (DRO), and a properly designed TempNet with theoretical inspiration. TempNet can be trained together with a large foundation model from scratch or learned separately given a pretrained foundation model. It is not only useful for predicting personalized temperature to promote the training of LFMs but also generalizable and transferable to new tasks. Our experiments on LLMs and CLIP models demonstrate that TempNet greatly improves the performance of existing solutions or models, e.g. Table 1. The code to reproduce the experimental results in this paper can be found at https://github.com/zhqiu/TempNet.

Single-shot thermometry of simulated Bose--Einstein condensates using artificial intelligence

Precise determination of thermodynamic parameters in ultracold Bose gases remains challenging due to the destructive nature of conventional measurement techniques and inherent experimental uncertainties. We demonstrate an artificial intelligence approach for rapid, non-destructive estimation of the chemical potential and temperature from single-shot, in situ imaged density profiles of finite-temperature Bose gases. Our convolutional neural network is trained exclusively on quasi-2D `pancake' condensates in harmonic trap configurations. It achieves parameter extraction within fractions of a second. The model also demonstrates zero-shot generalisation across both trap geometry and thermalisation dynamics, successfully estimating thermodynamic parameters for toroidally trapped condensates with errors of only a few nanokelvin despite no prior exposure to such geometries during training, and maintaining predictive accuracy during dynamic thermalisation processes after a relatively brief evolution without explicit training on non-equilibrium states. These results suggest that supervised learning can overcome traditional limitations in ultracold atom thermometry, with extension to broader geometric configurations, temperature ranges, and additional parameters potentially enabling comprehensive real-time analysis of quantum gas experiments. Such capabilities could significantly streamline experimental workflows whilst improving measurement precision across a range of quantum fluid systems.

LABIIUM: AI-Enhanced Zero-configuration Measurement Automation System

The complexity of laboratory environments requires solutions that simplify instrument interaction and enhance measurement automation. Traditional tools often require configuration, software, and programming skills, creating barriers to productivity. Previous approaches, including dedicated software suites and custom scripts, frequently fall short in providing user-friendly solutions that align with programming practices. We present LABIIUM, an AI-enhanced, zero-configuration measurement automation system designed to streamline experimental workflows and improve user productivity. LABIIUM integrates an AI assistant powered by Large Language Models (LLMs) to generate code. LABIIUM's Lab-Automation-Measurement Bridges (LAMBs) enable seamless instrument connectivity using standard tools such as VSCode and Python, eliminating setup overhead. To demonstrate its capabilities, we conducted experiments involving the measurement of the parametric transfer curve of a simple two-transistor inverting amplifier with a current source load. The AI assistant was evaluated using different prompt scenarios and compared with multiple models, including Claude Sonnet 3.5, Gemini Pro 1.5, and GPT-4o. An expert solution implementing the Gradient-Weighted Adaptive Stochastic Sampling (GWASS) method was used as a baseline. The solutions generated by the AI assistant were compared with the expert solution and a uniform linear sweep baseline with 10,000 points. The graph results show that the LLMs were able to successfully complete the most basic uniform sweep, but LLMs were unable to develop adaptive sweeping algorithms to compete with GWASS. The evaluation underscores LABIIUM's ability to enhance laboratory productivity and support digital transformation in research and industry, and emphasizes the future work required to improve LLM performance in Electronic Measurement Science Tasks.

Robust Binding Energy Distribution Sampling on Amorphous Solid Water Models. Method testing and validation with NH3, CO and CH4

This work aims to develop a method based on a structurally reliable ice model and a statistically and physico-chemically robust approach for BE distribution inference, with the aim to be applicable to various relevant interstellar species. A multiscale computational approach is presented, with a Molecular Dynamics (MD) Heat & Quench protocol for the amorphous water ice model, and an ONIOM(B3LYP-D3(BJ)/6-311+G**:GFN2-xtb) scheme for the BE inference, with a prime emphasis onto the BE/real system size convergence. The sampling of the binding configurations is twofold, exploring both regularly spaced binding sites, as well as various adsorbate-to-substrate orientations on each locally distinct site. This second source of BE diversity accounts for the local roughness of the potential energy landscape of the substrate. Three different adsorbate test cases are considered, i.e. NH3, CO and CH4, owing to their significance in dust icy mantles, and their distinct binding behavior with water ices. The BE distributions for NH3, CO and CH4 have been inferred, with converged statistics. The distribution for NH3 is better represented by a double Gaussian component profile. Three starting adsorbate orientations per site are required to reach convergence for both Gaussian components of NH3, while 2 orientations are sufficient for CO, and one unique for CH4 (symmetric). Further geometrical and molecular surrounding insights have been provided. These results encompass previously reported results.

ClimSim: An open large-scale dataset for training high-resolution physics emulators in hybrid multi-scale climate simulators

Modern climate projections lack adequate spatial and temporal resolution due to computational constraints. A consequence is inaccurate and imprecise predictions of critical processes such as storms. Hybrid methods that combine physics with machine learning (ML) have introduced a new generation of higher fidelity climate simulators that can sidestep Moore's Law by outsourcing compute-hungry, short, high-resolution simulations to ML emulators. However, this hybrid ML-physics simulation approach requires domain-specific treatment and has been inaccessible to ML experts because of lack of training data and relevant, easy-to-use workflows. We present ClimSim, the largest-ever dataset designed for hybrid ML-physics research. It comprises multi-scale climate simulations, developed by a consortium of climate scientists and ML researchers. It consists of 5.7 billion pairs of multivariate input and output vectors that isolate the influence of locally-nested, high-resolution, high-fidelity physics on a host climate simulator's macro-scale physical state. The dataset is global in coverage, spans multiple years at high sampling frequency, and is designed such that resulting emulators are compatible with downstream coupling into operational climate simulators. We implement a range of deterministic and stochastic regression baselines to highlight the ML challenges and their scoring. The data (https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_high-res, https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_low-res, and https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_low-res_aqua-planet) and code (https://leap-stc.github.io/ClimSim) are released openly to support the development of hybrid ML-physics and high-fidelity climate simulations for the benefit of science and society.

Scalable Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification for Neural Network Potentials: Promise and Pitfalls

Neural network (NN) potentials promise highly accurate molecular dynamics (MD) simulations within the computational complexity of classical MD force fields. However, when applied outside their training domain, NN potential predictions can be inaccurate, increasing the need for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ). Bayesian modeling provides the mathematical framework for UQ, but classical Bayesian methods based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) are computationally intractable for NN potentials. By training graph NN potentials for coarse-grained systems of liquid water and alanine dipeptide, we demonstrate here that scalable Bayesian UQ via stochastic gradient MCMC (SG-MCMC) yields reliable uncertainty estimates for MD observables. We show that cold posteriors can reduce the required training data size and that for reliable UQ, multiple Markov chains are needed. Additionally, we find that SG-MCMC and the Deep Ensemble method achieve comparable results, despite shorter training and less hyperparameter tuning of the latter. We show that both methods can capture aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty reliably, but not systematic uncertainty, which needs to be minimized by adequate modeling to obtain accurate credible intervals for MD observables. Our results represent a step towards accurate UQ that is of vital importance for trustworthy NN potential-based MD simulations required for decision-making in practice.

Cryoscope: A Cryogenic Infrared Survey Telescope in Antarctica

We present Cryoscope--a new 50 deg^2 field-of-view, 1.2 m aperture, K_{dark} survey telescope to be located at Dome C, Antarctica. Cryoscope has an innovative optical-thermal design wherein the entire telescope is cryogenically cooled. Cryoscope also explores new detector technology to cost-effectively tile the full focal plane. Leveraging the dark Antarctic sky and minimizing telescope thermal emission, Cryoscope achieves unprecedented deep, wide, fast and red observations, matching and exceeding volumetric survey speeds from the Ultraviolet Explorer, Vera Rubin Observatory, Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, SPHEREx, and NEO Surveyor. By providing coverage beyond wavelengths of 2 mum, we aim to create the most comprehensive dynamic movie of the most obscured reaches of the Universe. Cryoscope will be a dedicated discovery engine for electromagnetic emission from coalescing compact binaries, Earth-like exoplanets orbiting cold stars, and multiple facets of time-domain, stellar and solar system science. In this paper, we describe the scientific drivers and technical innovations for this new discovery engine operating in the K_{dark} passband, why we choose to deploy it in Antarctica, and the status of a fifth-scale prototype designed as a Pathfinder to retire technological risks prior to full-scale implementation. We plan to deploy the Cryoscope Pathfinder to Dome C in December 2026 and the full-scale telescope by 2030.

The X-ray Integral Field Unit at the end of the Athena reformulation phase

The Athena mission entered a redefinition phase in July 2022, driven by the imperative to reduce the mission cost at completion for the European Space Agency below an acceptable target, while maintaining the flagship nature of its science return. This notably called for a complete redesign of the X-ray Integral Field Unit (X-IFU) cryogenic architecture towards a simpler active cooling chain. Passive cooling via successive radiative panels at spacecraft level is now used to provide a 50 K thermal environment to an X-IFU owned cryostat. 4.5 K cooling is achieved via a single remote active cryocooler unit, while a multi-stage Adiabatic Demagnetization Refrigerator ensures heat lift down to the 50 mK required by the detectors. Amidst these changes, the core concept of the readout chain remains robust, employing Transition Edge Sensor microcalorimeters and a SQUID-based Time-Division Multiplexing scheme. Noteworthy is the introduction of a slower pixel. This enables an increase in the multiplexing factor (from 34 to 48) without compromising the instrument energy resolution, hence keeping significant system margins to the new 4 eV resolution requirement. This allows reducing the number of channels by more than a factor two, and thus the resource demands on the system, while keeping a 4' field of view (compared to 5' before). In this article, we will give an overview of this new architecture, before detailing its anticipated performances. Finally, we will present the new X-IFU schedule, with its short term focus on demonstration activities towards a mission adoption in early 2027.

Light-IF: Endowing LLMs with Generalizable Reasoning via Preview and Self-Checking for Complex Instruction Following

While advancements in the reasoning abilities of LLMs have significantly enhanced their performance in solving mathematical problems, coding tasks, and general puzzles, their effectiveness in accurately adhering to instructions remains inconsistent, particularly with more complex directives. Our investigation identifies lazy reasoning during the thinking stage as the primary factor contributing to poor instruction adherence. To mitigate this issue, we propose a comprehensive framework designed to enable rigorous reasoning processes involving preview and self-checking, essential for satisfying strict instruction constraints. Specifically, we first generate instructions with complex constraints and apply a filtering process to obtain valid prompts, resulting in three distinct prompt datasets categorized as hard, easy, and pass. Then, we employ rejection sampling on the pass prompts to curate a small yet high-quality dataset, enabling a cold-start initialization of the model and facilitating its adaptation to effective reasoning patterns. Subsequently, we employ an entropy-preserving supervised fine-tuning (Entropy-SFT) strategy coupled with token-wise entropy-adaptive (TEA-RL) reinforcement learning guided by rule-based dense rewards. This approach encourages the model to transform its reasoning mechanism, ultimately fostering generalizable reasoning abilities that encompass preview and self-checking. Extensive experiments conducted on instruction-following benchmarks demonstrate remarkable performance improvements across various model scales. Notably, our Light-IF-32B model surpasses both larger open-source models such as DeepSeek-R1 and closed-source models like Doubao-1.6.

Forecasting Thermoacoustic Instabilities in Liquid Propellant Rocket Engines Using Multimodal Bayesian Deep Learning

The 100 MW cryogenic liquid oxygen/hydrogen multi-injector combustor BKD operated by the DLR Institute of Space Propulsion is a research platform that allows the study of thermoacoustic instabilities under realistic conditions, representative of small upper stage rocket engines. We use data from BKD experimental campaigns in which the static chamber pressure and fuel-oxidizer ratio are varied such that the first tangential mode of the combustor is excited under some conditions. We train an autoregressive Bayesian neural network model to forecast the amplitude of the dynamic pressure time series, inputting multiple sensor measurements (injector pressure/ temperature measurements, static chamber pressure, high-frequency dynamic pressure measurements, high-frequency OH* chemiluminescence measurements) and future flow rate control signals. The Bayesian nature of our algorithms allows us to work with a dataset whose size is restricted by the expense of each experimental run, without making overconfident extrapolations. We find that the networks are able to accurately forecast the evolution of the pressure amplitude and anticipate instability events on unseen experimental runs 500 milliseconds in advance. We compare the predictive accuracy of multiple models using different combinations of sensor inputs. We find that the high-frequency dynamic pressure signal is particularly informative. We also use the technique of integrated gradients to interpret the influence of different sensor inputs on the model prediction. The negative log-likelihood of data points in the test dataset indicates that predictive uncertainties are well-characterized by our Bayesian model and simulating a sensor failure event results as expected in a dramatic increase in the epistemic component of the uncertainty.

Von Mises Mixture Distributions for Molecular Conformation Generation

Molecules are frequently represented as graphs, but the underlying 3D molecular geometry (the locations of the atoms) ultimately determines most molecular properties. However, most molecules are not static and at room temperature adopt a wide variety of geometries or conformations. The resulting distribution on geometries p(x) is known as the Boltzmann distribution, and many molecular properties are expectations computed under this distribution. Generating accurate samples from the Boltzmann distribution is therefore essential for computing these expectations accurately. Traditional sampling-based methods are computationally expensive, and most recent machine learning-based methods have focused on identifying modes in this distribution rather than generating true samples. Generating such samples requires capturing conformational variability, and it has been widely recognized that the majority of conformational variability in molecules arises from rotatable bonds. In this work, we present VonMisesNet, a new graph neural network that captures conformational variability via a variational approximation of rotatable bond torsion angles as a mixture of von Mises distributions. We demonstrate that VonMisesNet can generate conformations for arbitrary molecules in a way that is both physically accurate with respect to the Boltzmann distribution and orders of magnitude faster than existing sampling methods.

Evidence for Widespread Hydrogen Sequestration within the Moon's South Polar Cold Traps

The measured neutron flux from the Moons south polar region shows evidence of locally enhanced hydrogen concentrations, likely in the form of water ice, within most permanently shadowed regions (PSR), poleward of 77 deg S latitude. Results are consistent with the original findings of Watson et al, 1961, which found that the PSRs cryogenic surfaces create exclusive conditions for the sequestration of water ice, due to their extremely low sublimation rates. Widespread PSR hydrogenation is demonstrated in several studies by showing that the contrasting PSR area distribution is being instrumentally blurred. The PSRs expected hydrogen observations are correlated by their area fraction of the fixed 30 km diameter footprint area of the Collimated Sensor for Epithermal Neutrons (CSETN), which is part of the Lunar Exploration Neutron Detector (LEND) onboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO). The correlation indicates that the PSRs are similarly hydrogenated, with an expected concentration = 0.27 wt%, relative to that of the anhydrous reference terrain (lower bounds). Hydrogen concentrations are demonstrated to be correlated to maximum temperature distributions within the basins of Haworth, Shoemaker and Faustini PSRs. Cabeus-1 PSR shows an anomalously enhanced hydrogen concentration indicating a second process contributes to its hydrogen budget. Results are consistent with ongoing processes that introduce volatiles to the surface including outgassing, solar wind production with regolith silicates, and mixing from small scale meteor impacts and diurnal temperature variation. We validate the bandpass filter used to subtract CSETNs detection of uncollimated neutrons with profiles of several PSRs neutron suppression before and after processing. Keywords: Moon, Epithermal Neutron, Hydrogen, Water, Ice, Volatiles, LRO, LEND, Diviner, LOLA

Out-of-Distribution Detection & Applications With Ablated Learned Temperature Energy

As deep neural networks become adopted in high-stakes domains, it is crucial to be able to identify when inference inputs are Out-of-Distribution (OOD) so that users can be alerted of likely drops in performance and calibration despite high confidence. Among many others, existing methods use the following two scores to do so without training on any apriori OOD examples: a learned temperature and an energy score. In this paper we introduce Ablated Learned Temperature Energy (or "AbeT" for short), a method which combines these prior methods in novel ways with effective modifications. Due to these contributions, AbeT lowers the False Positive Rate at 95% True Positive Rate (FPR@95) by 35.39% in classification (averaged across all ID and OOD datasets measured) compared to state of the art without training networks in multiple stages or requiring hyperparameters or test-time backward passes. We additionally provide empirical insights as to how our model learns to distinguish between In-Distribution (ID) and OOD samples while only being explicitly trained on ID samples via exposure to misclassified ID examples at training time. Lastly, we show the efficacy of our method in identifying predicted bounding boxes and pixels corresponding to OOD objects in object detection and semantic segmentation, respectively - with an AUROC increase of 5.15% in object detection and both a decrease in FPR@95 of 41.48% and an increase in AUPRC of 34.20% on average in semantic segmentation compared to previous state of the art.

Standardized Benchmark Dataset for Localized Exposure to a Realistic Source at 10-90 GHz

The lack of freely available standardized datasets represents an aggravating factor during the development and testing the performance of novel computational techniques in exposure assessment and dosimetry research. This hinders progress as researchers are required to generate numerical data (field, power and temperature distribution) anew using simulation software for each exposure scenario. Other than being time consuming, this approach is highly susceptible to errors that occur during the configuration of the electromagnetic model. To address this issue, in this paper, the limited available data on the incident power density and resultant maximum temperature rise on the skin surface considering various steady-state exposure scenarios at 10-90 GHz have been statistically modeled. The synthetic data have been sampled from the fitted statistical multivariate distribution with respect to predetermined dosimetric constraints. We thus present a comprehensive and open-source dataset compiled of the high-fidelity numerical data considering various exposures to a realistic source. Furthermore, different surrogate models for predicting maximum temperature rise on the skin surface were fitted based on the synthetic dataset. All surrogate models were tested on the originally available data where satisfactory predictive performance has been demonstrated. A simple technique of combining quadratic polynomial and tensor-product spline surrogates, each operating on its own cluster of data, has achieved the lowest mean absolute error of 0.058 {\deg}C. Therefore, overall experimental results indicate the validity of the proposed synthetic dataset.