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SubscribeFinetuning a Weather Foundation Model with Lightweight Decoders for Unseen Physical Processes
Recent advances in AI weather forecasting have led to the emergence of so-called "foundation models", typically defined by expensive pretraining and minimal fine-tuning for downstream tasks. However, in the natural sciences, a desirable foundation model should also encode meaningful statistical relationships between the underlying physical variables. This study evaluates the performance of the state-of-the-art Aurora foundation model in predicting hydrological variables, which were not considered during pretraining. We introduce a lightweight approach using shallow decoders trained on the latent representations of the pretrained model to predict these new variables. As a baseline, we compare this to fine-tuning the full model, which allows further optimization of the latent space while incorporating new variables into both inputs and outputs. The decoder-based approach requires 50% less training time and 35% less memory, while achieving strong accuracy across various hydrological variables and preserving desirable properties of the foundation model, such as autoregressive stability. Notably, decoder accuracy depends on the physical correlation between the new variables and those used during pretraining, indicating that Aurora's latent space captures meaningful physical relationships. In this sense, we argue that an important quality metric for foundation models in Earth sciences is their ability to be extended to new variables without a full fine-tuning. This provides a new perspective for making foundation models more accessible to communities with limited computational resources, while supporting broader adoption in Earth sciences.
Partial Correlations in Compositional Data Analysis
Partial correlations quantify linear association between two variables adjusting for the influence of the remaining variables. They form the backbone for graphical models and are readily obtained from the inverse of the covariance matrix. For compositional data, the covariance structure is specified from log ratios of variables, so unless we try to "open" the data via a normalization, this implies changes in the definition and interpretation of partial correlations. In the present work, we elucidate how results derived by Aitchison (1986) lead to a natural definition of partial correlation that has a number of advantages over current measures of association. For this, we show that the residuals of log-ratios between a variable with a reference, when adjusting for all remaining variables including the reference, are reference-independent. Since the reference itself can be controlled for, correlations between residuals are defined for the variables directly without the necessity to recur to ratios except when specifying which variables are partialled out. Thus, perhaps surprisingly, partial correlations do not have the problems commonly found with measures of pairwise association on compositional data. They are well-defined between two variables, are properly scaled, and allow for negative association. By design, they are subcompositionally incoherent, but they share this property with conventional partial correlations (where results change when adjusting for the influence of fewer variables). We discuss the equivalence with normalization-based approaches whenever the normalizing variables are controlled for. We also discuss the partial variances and correlations we obtain from a previously studied data set of Roman glass cups.
Rethinking Symbolic Regression Datasets and Benchmarks for Scientific Discovery
This paper revisits datasets and evaluation criteria for Symbolic Regression, a task of expressing given data using mathematical equations, specifically focused on its potential for scientific discovery. Focused on a set of formulas used in the existing datasets based on Feynman Lectures on Physics, we recreate 120 datasets to discuss the performance of symbolic regression for scientific discovery (SRSD). For each of the 120 SRSD datasets, we carefully review the properties of the formula and its variables to design reasonably realistic sampling range of values so that our new SRSD datasets can be used for evaluating the potential of SRSD such as whether or not an SR method can (re)discover physical laws from such datasets. As an evaluation metric, we also propose to use normalized edit distances between a predicted equation and the ground-truth equation trees. While existing metrics are either binary or errors between the target values and an SR model's predicted values for a given input, normalized edit distances evaluate a sort of similarity between the ground-truth and predicted equation trees. We have conducted experiments on our new SRSD datasets using five state-of-the-art SR methods in SRBench and a simple baseline based on a recent Transformer architecture. The results show that we provide a more realistic performance evaluation and open up a new machine learning-based approach for scientific discovery. Our datasets and code repository are publicly available.
Towards Physically Interpretable World Models: Meaningful Weakly Supervised Representations for Visual Trajectory Prediction
Deep learning models are increasingly employed for perception, prediction, and control in complex systems. Embedding physical knowledge into these models is crucial for achieving realistic and consistent outputs, a challenge often addressed by physics-informed machine learning. However, integrating physical knowledge with representation learning becomes difficult when dealing with high-dimensional observation data, such as images, particularly under conditions of incomplete or imprecise state information. To address this, we propose Physically Interpretable World Models, a novel architecture that aligns learned latent representations with real-world physical quantities. Our method combines a variational autoencoder with a dynamical model that incorporates unknown system parameters, enabling the discovery of physically meaningful representations. By employing weak supervision with interval-based constraints, our approach eliminates the reliance on ground-truth physical annotations. Experimental results demonstrate that our method improves the quality of learned representations while achieving accurate predictions of future states, advancing the field of representation learning in dynamic systems.
Standardized Benchmark Dataset for Localized Exposure to a Realistic Source at 10-90 GHz
The lack of freely available standardized datasets represents an aggravating factor during the development and testing the performance of novel computational techniques in exposure assessment and dosimetry research. This hinders progress as researchers are required to generate numerical data (field, power and temperature distribution) anew using simulation software for each exposure scenario. Other than being time consuming, this approach is highly susceptible to errors that occur during the configuration of the electromagnetic model. To address this issue, in this paper, the limited available data on the incident power density and resultant maximum temperature rise on the skin surface considering various steady-state exposure scenarios at 10-90 GHz have been statistically modeled. The synthetic data have been sampled from the fitted statistical multivariate distribution with respect to predetermined dosimetric constraints. We thus present a comprehensive and open-source dataset compiled of the high-fidelity numerical data considering various exposures to a realistic source. Furthermore, different surrogate models for predicting maximum temperature rise on the skin surface were fitted based on the synthetic dataset. All surrogate models were tested on the originally available data where satisfactory predictive performance has been demonstrated. A simple technique of combining quadratic polynomial and tensor-product spline surrogates, each operating on its own cluster of data, has achieved the lowest mean absolute error of 0.058 {\deg}C. Therefore, overall experimental results indicate the validity of the proposed synthetic dataset.
Leveraging Large Language Models for Analyzing Blood Pressure Variations Across Biological Sex from Scientific Literature
Hypertension, defined as blood pressure (BP) that is above normal, holds paramount significance in the realm of public health, as it serves as a critical precursor to various cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and significantly contributes to elevated mortality rates worldwide. However, many existing BP measurement technologies and standards might be biased because they do not consider clinical outcomes, comorbidities, or demographic factors, making them inconclusive for diagnostic purposes. There is limited data-driven research focused on studying the variance in BP measurements across these variables. In this work, we employed GPT-35-turbo, a large language model (LLM), to automatically extract the mean and standard deviation values of BP for both males and females from a dataset comprising 25 million abstracts sourced from PubMed. 993 article abstracts met our predefined inclusion criteria (i.e., presence of references to blood pressure, units of blood pressure such as mmHg, and mention of biological sex). Based on the automatically-extracted information from these articles, we conducted an analysis of the variations of BP values across biological sex. Our results showed the viability of utilizing LLMs to study the BP variations across different demographic factors.
Newly Discovered Eclipsing Binary 2MASS J18024395+4003309 (VSX J180243.9+400331):Two-Color Photometry vs Phenomenological Modeling
We report on analysis of the two-color VR CCD observations of the newly discovered variable 2MASS J18024395+4003309=VSX J180243.9+400331 obtained using the 1-m telescope of the Mt. Lemmon Observatory (LOAO) in the field of the intermediate polar V1323 Her. The extended version of this conference talk we published in 2015JASS...32..127A. The variability was reported in 2012OAP....25..150A, and the object was monitored. The two-color observations covered all phase interval. The object is classified as an Algol-type variable with tidally distorted components, and shows an asymmetry of the maxima (the O\'Connell effect). For phenomenological modeling, we used the trigonometric polynomial approximation of statistically optimal degree, and a recent method "NAV" (New Algol Variable) using local specific shapes for the eclipse. Methodological aspects are described, especially for the case of few color observations. Estimates of the physical parameters based on analysis of phenomenological parameters, are presented.
Do generative video models learn physical principles from watching videos?
AI video generation is undergoing a revolution, with quality and realism advancing rapidly. These advances have led to a passionate scientific debate: Do video models learn ``world models'' that discover laws of physics -- or, alternatively, are they merely sophisticated pixel predictors that achieve visual realism without understanding the physical principles of reality? We address this question by developing Physics-IQ, a comprehensive benchmark dataset that can only be solved by acquiring a deep understanding of various physical principles, like fluid dynamics, optics, solid mechanics, magnetism and thermodynamics. We find that across a range of current models (Sora, Runway, Pika, Lumiere, Stable Video Diffusion, and VideoPoet), physical understanding is severely limited, and unrelated to visual realism. At the same time, some test cases can already be successfully solved. This indicates that acquiring certain physical principles from observation alone may be possible, but significant challenges remain. While we expect rapid advances ahead, our work demonstrates that visual realism does not imply physical understanding. Our project page is at https://physics-iq.github.io; code at https://github.com/google-deepmind/physics-IQ-benchmark.
Non-Invasive Medical Digital Twins using Physics-Informed Self-Supervised Learning
A digital twin is a virtual replica of a real-world physical phenomena that uses mathematical modeling to characterize and simulate its defining features. By constructing digital twins for disease processes, we can perform in-silico simulations that mimic patients' health conditions and counterfactual outcomes under hypothetical interventions in a virtual setting. This eliminates the need for invasive procedures or uncertain treatment decisions. In this paper, we propose a method to identify digital twin model parameters using only noninvasive patient health data. We approach the digital twin modeling as a composite inverse problem, and observe that its structure resembles pretraining and finetuning in self-supervised learning (SSL). Leveraging this, we introduce a physics-informed SSL algorithm that initially pretrains a neural network on the pretext task of solving the physical model equations. Subsequently, the model is trained to reconstruct low-dimensional health measurements from noninvasive modalities while being constrained by the physical equations learned in pretraining. We apply our method to identify digital twins of cardiac hemodynamics using noninvasive echocardiogram videos, and demonstrate its utility in unsupervised disease detection and in-silico clinical trials.
ReTaSA: A Nonparametric Functional Estimation Approach for Addressing Continuous Target Shift
The presence of distribution shifts poses a significant challenge for deploying modern machine learning models in real-world applications. This work focuses on the target shift problem in a regression setting (Zhang et al., 2013; Nguyen et al., 2016). More specifically, the target variable y (also known as the response variable), which is continuous, has different marginal distributions in the training source and testing domain, while the conditional distribution of features x given y remains the same. While most literature focuses on classification tasks with finite target space, the regression problem has an infinite dimensional target space, which makes many of the existing methods inapplicable. In this work, we show that the continuous target shift problem can be addressed by estimating the importance weight function from an ill-posed integral equation. We propose a nonparametric regularized approach named ReTaSA to solve the ill-posed integral equation and provide theoretical justification for the estimated importance weight function. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been demonstrated with extensive numerical studies on synthetic and real-world datasets.
GaussianProperty: Integrating Physical Properties to 3D Gaussians with LMMs
Estimating physical properties for visual data is a crucial task in computer vision, graphics, and robotics, underpinning applications such as augmented reality, physical simulation, and robotic grasping. However, this area remains under-explored due to the inherent ambiguities in physical property estimation. To address these challenges, we introduce GaussianProperty, a training-free framework that assigns physical properties of materials to 3D Gaussians. Specifically, we integrate the segmentation capability of SAM with the recognition capability of GPT-4V(ision) to formulate a global-local physical property reasoning module for 2D images. Then we project the physical properties from multi-view 2D images to 3D Gaussians using a voting strategy. We demonstrate that 3D Gaussians with physical property annotations enable applications in physics-based dynamic simulation and robotic grasping. For physics-based dynamic simulation, we leverage the Material Point Method (MPM) for realistic dynamic simulation. For robot grasping, we develop a grasping force prediction strategy that estimates a safe force range required for object grasping based on the estimated physical properties. Extensive experiments on material segmentation, physics-based dynamic simulation, and robotic grasping validate the effectiveness of our proposed method, highlighting its crucial role in understanding physical properties from visual data. Online demo, code, more cases and annotated datasets are available on https://Gaussian-Property.github.io{this https URL}.
AirPhyNet: Harnessing Physics-Guided Neural Networks for Air Quality Prediction
Air quality prediction and modelling plays a pivotal role in public health and environment management, for individuals and authorities to make informed decisions. Although traditional data-driven models have shown promise in this domain, their long-term prediction accuracy can be limited, especially in scenarios with sparse or incomplete data and they often rely on black-box deep learning structures that lack solid physical foundation leading to reduced transparency and interpretability in predictions. To address these limitations, this paper presents a novel approach named Physics guided Neural Network for Air Quality Prediction (AirPhyNet). Specifically, we leverage two well-established physics principles of air particle movement (diffusion and advection) by representing them as differential equation networks. Then, we utilize a graph structure to integrate physics knowledge into a neural network architecture and exploit latent representations to capture spatio-temporal relationships within the air quality data. Experiments on two real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that AirPhyNet outperforms state-of-the-art models for different testing scenarios including different lead time (24h, 48h, 72h), sparse data and sudden change prediction, achieving reduction in prediction errors up to 10%. Moreover, a case study further validates that our model captures underlying physical processes of particle movement and generates accurate predictions with real physical meaning.
Construction de variables a l'aide de classifieurs comme aide a la regression
This paper proposes a method for the automatic creation of variables (in the case of regression) that complement the information contained in the initial input vector. The method works as a pre-processing step in which the continuous values of the variable to be regressed are discretized into a set of intervals which are then used to define value thresholds. Then classifiers are trained to predict whether the value to be regressed is less than or equal to each of these thresholds. The different outputs of the classifiers are then concatenated in the form of an additional vector of variables that enriches the initial vector of the regression problem. The implemented system can thus be considered as a generic pre-processing tool. We tested the proposed enrichment method with 5 types of regressors and evaluated it in 33 regression datasets. Our experimental results confirm the interest of the approach.
"PhyWorldBench": A Comprehensive Evaluation of Physical Realism in Text-to-Video Models
Video generation models have achieved remarkable progress in creating high-quality, photorealistic content. However, their ability to accurately simulate physical phenomena remains a critical and unresolved challenge. This paper presents PhyWorldBench, a comprehensive benchmark designed to evaluate video generation models based on their adherence to the laws of physics. The benchmark covers multiple levels of physical phenomena, ranging from fundamental principles like object motion and energy conservation to more complex scenarios involving rigid body interactions and human or animal motion. Additionally, we introduce a novel ""Anti-Physics"" category, where prompts intentionally violate real-world physics, enabling the assessment of whether models can follow such instructions while maintaining logical consistency. Besides large-scale human evaluation, we also design a simple yet effective method that could utilize current MLLM to evaluate the physics realism in a zero-shot fashion. We evaluate 12 state-of-the-art text-to-video generation models, including five open-source and five proprietary models, with a detailed comparison and analysis. we identify pivotal challenges models face in adhering to real-world physics. Through systematic testing of their outputs across 1,050 curated prompts-spanning fundamental, composite, and anti-physics scenarios-we identify pivotal challenges these models face in adhering to real-world physics. We then rigorously examine their performance on diverse physical phenomena with varying prompt types, deriving targeted recommendations for crafting prompts that enhance fidelity to physical principles.
Physics3D: Learning Physical Properties of 3D Gaussians via Video Diffusion
In recent years, there has been rapid development in 3D generation models, opening up new possibilities for applications such as simulating the dynamic movements of 3D objects and customizing their behaviors. However, current 3D generative models tend to focus only on surface features such as color and shape, neglecting the inherent physical properties that govern the behavior of objects in the real world. To accurately simulate physics-aligned dynamics, it is essential to predict the physical properties of materials and incorporate them into the behavior prediction process. Nonetheless, predicting the diverse materials of real-world objects is still challenging due to the complex nature of their physical attributes. In this paper, we propose Physics3D, a novel method for learning various physical properties of 3D objects through a video diffusion model. Our approach involves designing a highly generalizable physical simulation system based on a viscoelastic material model, which enables us to simulate a wide range of materials with high-fidelity capabilities. Moreover, we distill the physical priors from a video diffusion model that contains more understanding of realistic object materials. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method with both elastic and plastic materials. Physics3D shows great potential for bridging the gap between the physical world and virtual neural space, providing a better integration and application of realistic physical principles in virtual environments. Project page: https://liuff19.github.io/Physics3D.
Value of the Teaching Career and Factors in Its Path in Peru
The teaching career shares common global characteristics, such as internal promotion, performance evaluation, recruitment of top candidates, continuous training, specialization, and peer learning. This study aims to describe the factors associated with the value placed on the teaching career in Peru. A total of 28217 public school teachers were analyzed using data from the 2020 National Teacher Survey. A variable measuring the "value of the teaching career" was constructed using eight indicators and categorized as low, medium, or high. Another variable, vision of the future, was classified as pessimistic, conformist, or optimistic. This observational, cross-sectional, and analytical study included variables related to in-service training, working conditions, professional recognition, and sociodemographic characteristics. Among the teachers surveyed, 45.8 % expressed an optimistic outlook on the future of the profession, 48 % held a conformist view, and only 6.2 % reported a pessimistic perspective. A generalized linear model revealed that the value placed on the teaching career was significantly associated with male gender (p = 0.002), a professional career (p < 0.001), an optimistic outlook (p = 0.033), and working at the primary level (p < 0.001). It was concluded that Peruvian teachers predominantly hold conformist or optimistic views of their profession. This highlights the need to reinforce merit-based advancement, competency-based training, intrinsic motivation, and ongoing professional development
Digital Gene: Learning about the Physical World through Analytic Concepts
Reviewing the progress in artificial intelligence over the past decade, various significant advances (e.g. object detection, image generation, large language models) have enabled AI systems to produce more semantically meaningful outputs and achieve widespread adoption in internet scenarios. Nevertheless, AI systems still struggle when it comes to understanding and interacting with the physical world. This reveals an important issue: relying solely on semantic-level concepts learned from internet data (e.g. texts, images) to understand the physical world is far from sufficient -- machine intelligence currently lacks an effective way to learn about the physical world. This research introduces the idea of analytic concept -- representing the concepts related to the physical world through programs of mathematical procedures, providing machine intelligence a portal to perceive, reason about, and interact with the physical world. Except for detailing the design philosophy and providing guidelines for the application of analytic concepts, this research also introduce about the infrastructure that has been built around analytic concepts. I aim for my research to contribute to addressing these questions: What is a proper abstraction of general concepts in the physical world for machine intelligence? How to systematically integrate structured priors with neural networks to constrain AI systems to comply with physical laws?
Attenuation Bias with Latent Predictors
Many political science theories relate to latent variables, but such quantities cannot be observed directly and must instead be estimated from data with inherent uncertainty. In regression models, when a variable is measured with error, its slope coefficient is known to be biased toward zero. We show how measurement error interacts with unique aspects of latent variable estimation, identification restrictions in particular, and demonstrate how common error adjustment strategies can worsen bias. We introduce a method for adjusting coefficients on latent predictors, which reduces bias and typically increases the magnitude of estimated coefficients, often dramatically. We illustrate these dynamics using several different estimation strategies for the latent predictors. Corrected estimates using our proposed method show stronger relationships -- sometimes up to 50% larger -- than those from naive regression. Our findings highlight the importance of considering measurement error in latent predictors and the inadequacy of many commonly used approaches for dealing with this issue.
Physics-aware registration based auto-encoder for convection dominated PDEs
We design a physics-aware auto-encoder to specifically reduce the dimensionality of solutions arising from convection-dominated nonlinear physical systems. Although existing nonlinear manifold learning methods seem to be compelling tools to reduce the dimensionality of data characterized by a large Kolmogorov n-width, they typically lack a straightforward mapping from the latent space to the high-dimensional physical space. Moreover, the realized latent variables are often hard to interpret. Therefore, many of these methods are often dismissed in the reduced order modeling of dynamical systems governed by the partial differential equations (PDEs). Accordingly, we propose an auto-encoder type nonlinear dimensionality reduction algorithm. The unsupervised learning problem trains a diffeomorphic spatio-temporal grid, that registers the output sequence of the PDEs on a non-uniform parameter/time-varying grid, such that the Kolmogorov n-width of the mapped data on the learned grid is minimized. We demonstrate the efficacy and interpretability of our approach to separate convection/advection from diffusion/scaling on various manufactured and physical systems.
Detecting Errors in a Numerical Response via any Regression Model
Noise plagues many numerical datasets, where the recorded values in the data may fail to match the true underlying values due to reasons including: erroneous sensors, data entry/processing mistakes, or imperfect human estimates. We consider general regression settings with covariates and a potentially corrupted response whose observed values may contain errors. By accounting for various uncertainties, we introduced veracity scores that distinguish between genuine errors and natural data fluctuations, conditioned on the available covariate information in the dataset. We propose a simple yet efficient filtering procedure for eliminating potential errors, and establish theoretical guarantees for our method. We also contribute a new error detection benchmark involving 5 regression datasets with real-world numerical errors (for which the true values are also known). In this benchmark and additional simulation studies, our method identifies incorrect values with better precision/recall than other approaches.
A Flexible Parametric Modelling Framework for Survival Analysis
We introduce a general, flexible, parametric survival modelling framework which encompasses key shapes of hazard function (constant, increasing, decreasing, up-then-down, down-then-up), various common survival distributions (log-logistic, Burr type XII, Weibull, Gompertz), and includes defective distributions (i.e., cure models). This generality is achieved using four basic distributional parameters: two scale-type parameters and two shape parameters. Generalising to covariate dependence, the scale-type regression components correspond to accelerated failure time (AFT) and proportional hazards (PH) models. Therefore, this general formulation unifies the most popular survival models which allows us to consider the practical value of possible modelling choices for survival data. Furthermore, in line with our proposed flexible baseline distribution, we advocate the use of multi-parameter regression in which more than one distributional parameter depends on covariates - rather than the usual convention of having a single covariate-dependent (scale) parameter. While many choices are available, we suggest introducing covariates through just one or other of the two scale parameters, which covers AFT and PH models, in combination with a `power' shape parameter, which allows for more complex non-AFT/non-PH effects, while the other shape parameter remains covariate-independent, and handles automatic selection of the baseline distribution. We explore inferential issues in simulations, both with and without a covariate, with particular focus on evidence concerning the need, or otherwise, to include both AFT and PH parameters. We illustrate the efficacy of our modelling framework by investigating differences between treatment groups using data from a lung cancer study and a melanoma study. Censoring is accommodated throughout.
Model-Twin Randomization (MoTR): A Monte Carlo Method for Estimating the Within-Individual Average Treatment Effect Using Wearable Sensors
Temporally dense single-person "small data" have become widely available thanks to mobile apps and wearable sensors. Many caregivers and self-trackers want to use these data to help a specific person change their behavior to achieve desired health outcomes. Ideally, this involves discerning possible causes from correlations using that person's own observational time series data. In this paper, we estimate within-individual average treatment effects of physical activity on sleep duration, and vice-versa. We introduce the model twin randomization (MoTR; "motor") method for analyzing an individual's intensive longitudinal data. Formally, MoTR is an application of the g-formula (i.e., standardization, back-door adjustment) under serial interference. It estimates stable recurring effects, as is done in n-of-1 trials and single case experimental designs. We compare our approach to standard methods (with possible confounding) to show how to use causal inference to make better personalized recommendations for health behavior change, and analyze 222 days of Fitbit sleep and steps data for one of the authors.
Morpheus: Benchmarking Physical Reasoning of Video Generative Models with Real Physical Experiments
Recent advances in image and video generation raise hopes that these models possess world modeling capabilities, the ability to generate realistic, physically plausible videos. This could revolutionize applications in robotics, autonomous driving, and scientific simulation. However, before treating these models as world models, we must ask: Do they adhere to physical conservation laws? To answer this, we introduce Morpheus, a benchmark for evaluating video generation models on physical reasoning. It features 80 real-world videos capturing physical phenomena, guided by conservation laws. Since artificial generations lack ground truth, we assess physical plausibility using physics-informed metrics evaluated with respect to infallible conservation laws known per physical setting, leveraging advances in physics-informed neural networks and vision-language foundation models. Our findings reveal that even with advanced prompting and video conditioning, current models struggle to encode physical principles despite generating aesthetically pleasing videos. All data, leaderboard, and code are open-sourced at our project page.
Deep Probability Estimation
Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.
Causal Inference in the Presence of Latent Variables and Selection Bias
We show that there is a general, informative and reliable procedure for discovering causal relations when, for all the investigator knows, both latent variables and selection bias may be at work. Given information about conditional independence and dependence relations between measured variables, even when latent variables and selection bias may be present, there are sufficient conditions for reliably concluding that there is a causal path from one variable to another, and sufficient conditions for reliably concluding when no such causal path exists.
PhysGaussian: Physics-Integrated 3D Gaussians for Generative Dynamics
We introduce PhysGaussian, a new method that seamlessly integrates physically grounded Newtonian dynamics within 3D Gaussians to achieve high-quality novel motion synthesis. Employing a custom Material Point Method (MPM), our approach enriches 3D Gaussian kernels with physically meaningful kinematic deformation and mechanical stress attributes, all evolved in line with continuum mechanics principles. A defining characteristic of our method is the seamless integration between physical simulation and visual rendering: both components utilize the same 3D Gaussian kernels as their discrete representations. This negates the necessity for triangle/tetrahedron meshing, marching cubes, "cage meshes," or any other geometry embedding, highlighting the principle of "what you see is what you simulate (WS^2)." Our method demonstrates exceptional versatility across a wide variety of materials--including elastic entities, metals, non-Newtonian fluids, and granular materials--showcasing its strong capabilities in creating diverse visual content with novel viewpoints and movements. Our project page is at: https://xpandora.github.io/PhysGaussian/
Determination of Characteristics of Eclipsing Binaries with Spots: Phenomenological vs Physical Models
We discuss methods for modeling eclipsing binary stars using the "physical", "simplified" and "phenomenological" models. There are few realizations of the "physical" Wilson-Devinney (1971) code and its improvements, e.g. Binary Maker, Phoebe. A parameter search using the Monte-Carlo method was realized by Zola et al. (2010), which is efficient in expense of too many evaluations of the test function. We compare existing algorithms of minimization of multi-parametric functions and propose to use a "combined" algorithm, depending on if the Hessian matrix is positively determined. To study methods, a simply fast-computed function resembling the "complete" test function for the physical model. Also we adopt a simplified model of an eclipsing binary at a circular orbit assuming spherical components with an uniform brightness distribution. This model resembles more advanced models in a sense of correlated parameter estimates due to a similar topology of the test function. Such a model may be applied to detached Algol-type systems, where the tidal distortion of components is negligible.
PhysCtrl: Generative Physics for Controllable and Physics-Grounded Video Generation
Existing video generation models excel at producing photo-realistic videos from text or images, but often lack physical plausibility and 3D controllability. To overcome these limitations, we introduce PhysCtrl, a novel framework for physics-grounded image-to-video generation with physical parameters and force control. At its core is a generative physics network that learns the distribution of physical dynamics across four materials (elastic, sand, plasticine, and rigid) via a diffusion model conditioned on physics parameters and applied forces. We represent physical dynamics as 3D point trajectories and train on a large-scale synthetic dataset of 550K animations generated by physics simulators. We enhance the diffusion model with a novel spatiotemporal attention block that emulates particle interactions and incorporates physics-based constraints during training to enforce physical plausibility. Experiments show that PhysCtrl generates realistic, physics-grounded motion trajectories which, when used to drive image-to-video models, yield high-fidelity, controllable videos that outperform existing methods in both visual quality and physical plausibility. Project Page: https://cwchenwang.github.io/physctrl
Physically Compatible 3D Object Modeling from a Single Image
We present a computational framework that transforms single images into 3D physical objects. The visual geometry of a physical object in an image is determined by three orthogonal attributes: mechanical properties, external forces, and rest-shape geometry. Existing single-view 3D reconstruction methods often overlook this underlying composition, presuming rigidity or neglecting external forces. Consequently, the reconstructed objects fail to withstand real-world physical forces, resulting in instability or undesirable deformation -- diverging from their intended designs as depicted in the image. Our optimization framework addresses this by embedding physical compatibility into the reconstruction process. We explicitly decompose the three physical attributes and link them through static equilibrium, which serves as a hard constraint, ensuring that the optimized physical shapes exhibit desired physical behaviors. Evaluations on a dataset collected from Objaverse demonstrate that our framework consistently enhances the physical realism of 3D models over existing methods. The utility of our framework extends to practical applications in dynamic simulations and 3D printing, where adherence to physical compatibility is paramount.
Cosmic Calipers: Precise and Accurate Neutron Star Radius Measurements with Next-Generation Gravitational Wave Detectors
Gravitational waves from merging binary neutron stars carry characteristic information about their astrophysical properties, including masses and tidal deformabilities, that are needed to infer their radii. In this study, we use Bayesian inference to quantify the precision with which radius can inferred with upgrades in the current gravitational wave detectors and next-generation observatories such as the Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer. We assign evidences for a set of plausible equations of state, which are then used as weights to obtain radius posteriors. We find that prior choices and the loudness of observed signals limit the precision and accuracy of inferred radii by current detectors. In contrast, next-generation observatories can resolve the radius precisely and accurately, across most of the mass range to within lesssim 5% for both soft and stiff equations of state. We also explore how the choice of the neutron star mass prior can influence the inferred masses and potentially affect radii measurements, finding that choosing an astrophysically motivated prior does not notably impact an individual neutron star's radius measurements.
PhysDreamer: Physics-Based Interaction with 3D Objects via Video Generation
Realistic object interactions are crucial for creating immersive virtual experiences, yet synthesizing realistic 3D object dynamics in response to novel interactions remains a significant challenge. Unlike unconditional or text-conditioned dynamics generation, action-conditioned dynamics requires perceiving the physical material properties of objects and grounding the 3D motion prediction on these properties, such as object stiffness. However, estimating physical material properties is an open problem due to the lack of material ground-truth data, as measuring these properties for real objects is highly difficult. We present PhysDreamer, a physics-based approach that endows static 3D objects with interactive dynamics by leveraging the object dynamics priors learned by video generation models. By distilling these priors, PhysDreamer enables the synthesis of realistic object responses to novel interactions, such as external forces or agent manipulations. We demonstrate our approach on diverse examples of elastic objects and evaluate the realism of the synthesized interactions through a user study. PhysDreamer takes a step towards more engaging and realistic virtual experiences by enabling static 3D objects to dynamically respond to interactive stimuli in a physically plausible manner. See our project page at https://physdreamer.github.io/.
WISA: World Simulator Assistant for Physics-Aware Text-to-Video Generation
Recent rapid advancements in text-to-video (T2V) generation, such as SoRA and Kling, have shown great potential for building world simulators. However, current T2V models struggle to grasp abstract physical principles and generate videos that adhere to physical laws. This challenge arises primarily from a lack of clear guidance on physical information due to a significant gap between abstract physical principles and generation models. To this end, we introduce the World Simulator Assistant (WISA), an effective framework for decomposing and incorporating physical principles into T2V models. Specifically, WISA decomposes physical principles into textual physical descriptions, qualitative physical categories, and quantitative physical properties. To effectively embed these physical attributes into the generation process, WISA incorporates several key designs, including Mixture-of-Physical-Experts Attention (MoPA) and a Physical Classifier, enhancing the model's physics awareness. Furthermore, most existing datasets feature videos where physical phenomena are either weakly represented or entangled with multiple co-occurring processes, limiting their suitability as dedicated resources for learning explicit physical principles. We propose a novel video dataset, WISA-32K, collected based on qualitative physical categories. It consists of 32,000 videos, representing 17 physical laws across three domains of physics: dynamics, thermodynamics, and optics. Experimental results demonstrate that WISA can effectively enhance the compatibility of T2V models with real-world physical laws, achieving a considerable improvement on the VideoPhy benchmark. The visual exhibitions of WISA and WISA-32K are available in the https://360cvgroup.github.io/WISA/.
Exploring the Evolution of Physics Cognition in Video Generation: A Survey
Recent advancements in video generation have witnessed significant progress, especially with the rapid advancement of diffusion models. Despite this, their deficiencies in physical cognition have gradually received widespread attention - generated content often violates the fundamental laws of physics, falling into the dilemma of ''visual realism but physical absurdity". Researchers began to increasingly recognize the importance of physical fidelity in video generation and attempted to integrate heuristic physical cognition such as motion representations and physical knowledge into generative systems to simulate real-world dynamic scenarios. Considering the lack of a systematic overview in this field, this survey aims to provide a comprehensive summary of architecture designs and their applications to fill this gap. Specifically, we discuss and organize the evolutionary process of physical cognition in video generation from a cognitive science perspective, while proposing a three-tier taxonomy: 1) basic schema perception for generation, 2) passive cognition of physical knowledge for generation, and 3) active cognition for world simulation, encompassing state-of-the-art methods, classical paradigms, and benchmarks. Subsequently, we emphasize the inherent key challenges in this domain and delineate potential pathways for future research, contributing to advancing the frontiers of discussion in both academia and industry. Through structured review and interdisciplinary analysis, this survey aims to provide directional guidance for developing interpretable, controllable, and physically consistent video generation paradigms, thereby propelling generative models from the stage of ''visual mimicry'' towards a new phase of ''human-like physical comprehension''.
Fair coins tend to land on the same side they started: Evidence from 350,757 flips
Many people have flipped coins but few have stopped to ponder the statistical and physical intricacies of the process. We collected 350{,}757 coin flips to test the counterintuitive prediction from a physics model of human coin tossing developed by Diaconis, Holmes, and Montgomery (DHM; 2007). The model asserts that when people flip an ordinary coin, it tends to land on the same side it started -- DHM estimated the probability of a same-side outcome to be about 51\%. Our data lend strong support to this precise prediction: the coins landed on the same side more often than not, Pr(same side) = 0.508, 95\% credible interval (CI) [0.506, 0.509], BF_{same-side bias} = 2359. Furthermore, the data revealed considerable between-people variation in the degree of this same-side bias. Our data also confirmed the generic prediction that when people flip an ordinary coin -- with the initial side-up randomly determined -- it is equally likely to land heads or tails: Pr(heads) = 0.500, 95\% CI [0.498, 0.502], BF_{heads-tails bias} = 0.182. Furthermore, this lack of heads-tails bias does not appear to vary across coins. Additional analyses revealed that the within-people same-side bias decreased as more coins were flipped, an effect that is consistent with the possibility that practice makes people flip coins in a less wobbly fashion. Our data therefore provide strong evidence that when some (but not all) people flip a fair coin, it tends to land on the same side it started.
Physics-Integrated Variational Autoencoders for Robust and Interpretable Generative Modeling
Integrating physics models within machine learning models holds considerable promise toward learning robust models with improved interpretability and abilities to extrapolate. In this work, we focus on the integration of incomplete physics models into deep generative models. In particular, we introduce an architecture of variational autoencoders (VAEs) in which a part of the latent space is grounded by physics. A key technical challenge is to strike a balance between the incomplete physics and trainable components such as neural networks for ensuring that the physics part is used in a meaningful manner. To this end, we propose a regularized learning method that controls the effect of the trainable components and preserves the semantics of the physics-based latent variables as intended. We not only demonstrate generative performance improvements over a set of synthetic and real-world datasets, but we also show that we learn robust models that can consistently extrapolate beyond the training distribution in a meaningful manner. Moreover, we show that we can control the generative process in an interpretable manner.
CRUDE: Calibrating Regression Uncertainty Distributions Empirically
Calibrated uncertainty estimates in machine learning are crucial to many fields such as autonomous vehicles, medicine, and weather and climate forecasting. While there is extensive literature on uncertainty calibration for classification, the classification findings do not always translate to regression. As a result, modern models for predicting uncertainty in regression settings typically produce uncalibrated and overconfident estimates. To address these gaps, we present a calibration method for regression settings that does not assume a particular uncertainty distribution over the error: Calibrating Regression Uncertainty Distributions Empirically (CRUDE). CRUDE makes the weaker assumption that error distributions have a constant arbitrary shape across the output space, shifted by predicted mean and scaled by predicted standard deviation. We detail a theoretical connection between CRUDE and conformal inference. Across an extensive set of regression tasks, CRUDE demonstrates consistently sharper, better calibrated, and more accurate uncertainty estimates than state-of-the-art techniques.
Synthetic Video Enhances Physical Fidelity in Video Synthesis
We investigate how to enhance the physical fidelity of video generation models by leveraging synthetic videos derived from computer graphics pipelines. These rendered videos respect real-world physics, such as maintaining 3D consistency, and serve as a valuable resource that can potentially improve video generation models. To harness this potential, we propose a solution that curates and integrates synthetic data while introducing a method to transfer its physical realism to the model, significantly reducing unwanted artifacts. Through experiments on three representative tasks emphasizing physical consistency, we demonstrate its efficacy in enhancing physical fidelity. While our model still lacks a deep understanding of physics, our work offers one of the first empirical demonstrations that synthetic video enhances physical fidelity in video synthesis. Website: https://kevinz8866.github.io/simulation/
The information-theoretic foundation of thermodynamic work extraction
In this paper I apply newly-proposed information-theoretic principles to thermodynamic work extraction. I show that if it is possible to extract work deterministically from a physical system prepared in any one of a set of states, then those states must be distinguishable from one another. This result is formulated independently of scale and of particular dynamical laws; it also provides a novel connection between thermodynamics and information theory, established via the law of conservation of energy (rather than the second law of thermodynamics). Albeit compatible with these conclusions, existing thermodynamics approaches cannot provide a result of such generality, because they are scale-dependent (relying on ensembles or coarse-graining) or tied to particular dynamical laws. This paper thus provides a broader foundation for thermodynamics, with implications for the theory of von Neumann's universal constructor
Integrating Earth Observation Data into Causal Inference: Challenges and Opportunities
Observational studies require adjustment for confounding factors that are correlated with both the treatment and outcome. In the setting where the observed variables are tabular quantities such as average income in a neighborhood, tools have been developed for addressing such confounding. However, in many parts of the developing world, features about local communities may be scarce. In this context, satellite imagery can play an important role, serving as a proxy for the confounding variables otherwise unobserved. In this paper, we study confounder adjustment in this non-tabular setting, where patterns or objects found in satellite images contribute to the confounder bias. Using the evaluation of anti-poverty aid programs in Africa as our running example, we formalize the challenge of performing causal adjustment with such unstructured data -- what conditions are sufficient to identify causal effects, how to perform estimation, and how to quantify the ways in which certain aspects of the unstructured image object are most predictive of the treatment decision. Via simulation, we also explore the sensitivity of satellite image-based observational inference to image resolution and to misspecification of the image-associated confounder. Finally, we apply these tools in estimating the effect of anti-poverty interventions in African communities from satellite imagery.
Learning large scale industrial physics simulations
In an industrial group like Safran, numerical simulations of physical phenomena are integral to most design processes. At Safran's corporate research center, we enhance these processes by developing fast and reliable surrogate models for various physics. We focus here on two technologies developed in recent years. The first is a physical reduced-order modeling method for non-linear structural mechanics and thermal analysis, used for calculating the lifespan of high-pressure turbine blades and performing heat analysis of high-pressure compressors. The second technology involves learning physics simulations with non-parameterized geometrical variability using classical machine learning tools, such as Gaussian process regression. Finally, we present our contributions to the open-source and open-data community.
Multiphysics Bench: Benchmarking and Investigating Scientific Machine Learning for Multiphysics PDEs
Solving partial differential equations (PDEs) with machine learning has recently attracted great attention, as PDEs are fundamental tools for modeling real-world systems that range from fundamental physical science to advanced engineering disciplines. Most real-world physical systems across various disciplines are actually involved in multiple coupled physical fields rather than a single field. However, previous machine learning studies mainly focused on solving single-field problems, but overlooked the importance and characteristics of multiphysics problems in real world. Multiphysics PDEs typically entail multiple strongly coupled variables, thereby introducing additional complexity and challenges, such as inter-field coupling. Both benchmarking and solving multiphysics problems with machine learning remain largely unexamined. To identify and address the emerging challenges in multiphysics problems, we mainly made three contributions in this work. First, we collect the first general multiphysics dataset, the Multiphysics Bench, that focuses on multiphysics PDE solving with machine learning. Multiphysics Bench is also the most comprehensive PDE dataset to date, featuring the broadest range of coupling types, the greatest diversity of PDE formulations, and the largest dataset scale. Second, we conduct the first systematic investigation on multiple representative learning-based PDE solvers, such as PINNs, FNO, DeepONet, and DiffusionPDE solvers, on multiphysics problems. Unfortunately, naively applying these existing solvers usually show very poor performance for solving multiphysics. Third, through extensive experiments and discussions, we report multiple insights and a bag of useful tricks for solving multiphysics with machine learning, motivating future directions in the study and simulation of complex, coupled physical systems.
Approaching an unknown communication system by latent space exploration and causal inference
This paper proposes a methodology for discovering meaningful properties in data by exploring the latent space of unsupervised deep generative models. We combine manipulation of individual latent variables to extreme values with methods inspired by causal inference into an approach we call causal disentanglement with extreme values (CDEV) and show that this method yields insights for model interpretability. With this, we can test for what properties of unknown data the model encodes as meaningful, using it to glean insight into the communication system of sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus), one of the most intriguing and understudied animal communication systems. The network architecture used has been shown to learn meaningful representations of speech; here, it is used as a learning mechanism to decipher the properties of another vocal communication system in which case we have no ground truth. The proposed methodology suggests that sperm whales encode information using the number of clicks in a sequence, the regularity of their timing, and audio properties such as the spectral mean and the acoustic regularity of the sequences. Some of these findings are consistent with existing hypotheses, while others are proposed for the first time. We also argue that our models uncover rules that govern the structure of units in the communication system and apply them while generating innovative data not shown during training. This paper suggests that an interpretation of the outputs of deep neural networks with causal inference methodology can be a viable strategy for approaching data about which little is known and presents another case of how deep learning can limit the hypothesis space. Finally, the proposed approach can be extended to other architectures and datasets.
Highly Imbalanced Regression with Tabular Data in SEP and Other Applications
We investigate imbalanced regression with tabular data that have an imbalance ratio larger than 1,000 ("highly imbalanced"). Accurately estimating the target values of rare instances is important in applications such as forecasting the intensity of rare harmful Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events. For regression, the MSE loss does not consider the correlation between predicted and actual values. Typical inverse importance functions allow only convex functions. Uniform sampling might yield mini-batches that do not have rare instances. We propose CISIR that incorporates correlation, Monotonically Decreasing Involution (MDI) importance, and stratified sampling. Based on five datasets, our experimental results indicate that CISIR can achieve lower error and higher correlation than some recent methods. Also, adding our correlation component to other recent methods can improve their performance. Lastly, MDI importance can outperform other importance functions. Our code can be found in https://github.com/Machine-Earning/CISIR.
Addendum to Research MMMCV; A Man/Microbio/Megabio/Computer Vision
In October 2007, a Research Proposal for the University of Sydney, Australia, the author suggested that biovie-physical phenomenon as `electrodynamic dependant biological vision', is governed by relativistic quantum laws and biovision. The phenomenon on the basis of `biovielectroluminescence', satisfies man/microbio/megabio/computer vision (MMMCV), as a robust candidate for physical and visual sciences. The general aim of this addendum is to present a refined text of Sections 1-3 of that proposal and highlighting the contents of its Appendix in form of a `Mechanisms' Section. We then briefly remind in an article aimed for December 2007, by appending two more equations into Section 3, a theoretical II-time scenario as a time model well-proposed for the phenomenon. The time model within the core of the proposal, plays a significant role in emphasizing the principle points on Objectives no. 1-8, Sub-hypothesis 3.1.2, mentioned in Article [arXiv:0710.0410]. It also expresses the time concept in terms of causing quantized energy f(|E|) of time |t|, emit in regard to shortening the probability of particle loci as predictable patterns of particle's un-occurred motion, a solution to Heisenberg's uncertainty principle (HUP) into a simplistic manner. We conclude that, practical frames via a time algorithm to this model, fixates such predictable patterns of motion of scenery bodies onto recordable observation points of a MMMCV system. It even suppresses/predicts superposition phenomena coming from a human subject and/or other bio-subjects for any decision making event, e.g., brainwave quantum patterns based on vision. Maintaining the existential probability of Riemann surfaces of II-time scenarios in the context of biovielectroluminescence, makes motion-prediction a possibility.
PhyX: Does Your Model Have the "Wits" for Physical Reasoning?
Existing benchmarks fail to capture a crucial aspect of intelligence: physical reasoning, the integrated ability to combine domain knowledge, symbolic reasoning, and understanding of real-world constraints. To address this gap, we introduce PhyX: the first large-scale benchmark designed to assess models capacity for physics-grounded reasoning in visual scenarios. PhyX includes 3K meticulously curated multimodal questions spanning 6 reasoning types across 25 sub-domains and 6 core physics domains: thermodynamics, electromagnetism, mechanics, modern physics, optics, and wave\&acoustics. In our comprehensive evaluation, even state-of-the-art models struggle significantly with physical reasoning. GPT-4o, Claude3.7-Sonnet, and GPT-o4-mini achieve only 32.5\%, 42.2\%, and 45.8\% accuracy respectively-performance gaps exceeding 29\% compared to human experts. Our analysis exposes critical limitations in current models: over-reliance on memorized disciplinary knowledge, excessive dependence on mathematical formulations, and surface-level visual pattern matching rather than genuine physical understanding. We provide in-depth analysis through fine-grained statistics, detailed case studies, and multiple evaluation paradigms to thoroughly examine physical reasoning capabilities. To ensure reproducibility, we implement a compatible evaluation protocol based on widely-used toolkits such as VLMEvalKit, enabling one-click evaluation.
Precision measurement of the last bound states in H_2 and determination of the H + H scattering length
The binding energies of the five bound rotational levels J=0-4 in the highest vibrational level v=14 in the X^1Sigma_g^+ ground electronic state of H_2 were measured in a three-step ultraviolet-laser experiment. Two-photon UV-photolysis of H_2S produced population in these high-lying bound states, that were subsequently interrogated at high precision via Doppler-free spectroscopy of the F^1Sigma_g^+ - X^1Sigma_g^+ system. A third UV-laser was used for detection through auto-ionizing resonances. The experimentally determined binding energies were found to be in excellent agreement with calculations based on non-adiabatic perturbation theory, also including relativistic and quantum electrodynamical contributions. The s-wave scattering length of the H + H system is derived from the binding energy of the last bound J=0 level via a direct semi-empirical approach, yielding a value of a_s = 0.2724(5) a_0, in good agreement with a result from a previously followed theoretical approach. The subtle effect of the malpha^4 relativity contribution to a_s was found to be significant. In a similar manner a value for the p-wave scattering volume is determined via the J=1 binding energy yielding a_p = -134.0000(6) a_0^3. The binding energy of the last bound state in H_2, the (v=14, J=4) level, is determined at 0.023(4) cm^{-1}, in good agreement with calculation. The effect of the hyperfine substructure caused by the two hydrogen atoms at large internuclear separation, giving rise to three distinct dissociation limits, is discussed.
Graph-based Virtual Sensing from Sparse and Partial Multivariate Observations
Virtual sensing techniques allow for inferring signals at new unmonitored locations by exploiting spatio-temporal measurements coming from physical sensors at different locations. However, as the sensor coverage becomes sparse due to costs or other constraints, physical proximity cannot be used to support interpolation. In this paper, we overcome this challenge by leveraging dependencies between the target variable and a set of correlated variables (covariates) that can frequently be associated with each location of interest. From this viewpoint, covariates provide partial observability, and the problem consists of inferring values for unobserved channels by exploiting observations at other locations to learn how such variables can correlate. We introduce a novel graph-based methodology to exploit such relationships and design a graph deep learning architecture, named GgNet, implementing the framework. The proposed approach relies on propagating information over a nested graph structure that is used to learn dependencies between variables as well as locations. GgNet is extensively evaluated under different virtual sensing scenarios, demonstrating higher reconstruction accuracy compared to the state-of-the-art.
Sora Generates Videos with Stunning Geometrical Consistency
The recently developed Sora model [1] has exhibited remarkable capabilities in video generation, sparking intense discussions regarding its ability to simulate real-world phenomena. Despite its growing popularity, there is a lack of established metrics to evaluate its fidelity to real-world physics quantitatively. In this paper, we introduce a new benchmark that assesses the quality of the generated videos based on their adherence to real-world physics principles. We employ a method that transforms the generated videos into 3D models, leveraging the premise that the accuracy of 3D reconstruction is heavily contingent on the video quality. From the perspective of 3D reconstruction, we use the fidelity of the geometric constraints satisfied by the constructed 3D models as a proxy to gauge the extent to which the generated videos conform to real-world physics rules. Project page: https://sora-geometrical-consistency.github.io/
Pseudo-online framework for BCI evaluation: A MOABB perspective
Objective: BCI (Brain-Computer Interface) technology operates in three modes: online, offline, and pseudo-online. In the online mode, real-time EEG data is constantly analyzed. In offline mode, the signal is acquired and processed afterwards. The pseudo-online mode processes collected data as if they were received in real-time. The main difference is that the offline mode often analyzes the whole data, while the online and pseudo-online modes only analyze data in short time windows. Offline analysis is usually done with asynchronous BCIs, which restricts analysis to predefined time windows. Asynchronous BCI, compatible with online and pseudo-online modes, allows flexible mental activity duration. Offline processing tends to be more accurate, while online analysis is better for therapeutic applications. Pseudo-online implementation approximates online processing without real-time constraints. Many BCI studies being offline introduce biases compared to real-life scenarios, impacting classification algorithm performance. Approach: The objective of this research paper is therefore to extend the current MOABB framework, operating in offline mode, so as to allow a comparison of different algorithms in a pseudo-online setting with the use of a technology based on overlapping sliding windows. To do this will require the introduction of a idle state event in the dataset that takes into account all different possibilities that are not task thinking. To validate the performance of the algorithms we will use the normalized Matthews Correlation Coefficient (nMCC) and the Information Transfer Rate (ITR). Main results: We analyzed the state-of-the-art algorithms of the last 15 years over several Motor Imagery (MI) datasets composed by several subjects, showing the differences between the two approaches from a statistical point of view. Significance: The ability to analyze the performance of different algorithms in offline and pseudo-online modes will allow the BCI community to obtain more accurate and comprehensive reports regarding the performance of classification algorithms.
A Bayesian approach to the g-formula
Epidemiologists often wish to estimate quantities that are easy to communicate and correspond to the results of realistic public health scenarios. Methods from causal inference can answer these questions. We adopt the language of potential outcomes under Rubin's original Bayesian framework and show that the parametric g-formula is easily amenable to a Bayesian approach. We show that the frequentist properties of the Bayesian g-formula suggest it improves the accuracy of estimates of causal effects in small samples or when data may be sparse. We demonstrate our approach to estimate the effect of environmental tobacco smoke on body mass index z-scores among children aged 4-9 years who were enrolled in a longitudinal birth cohort in New York, USA. We give a general algorithm and supply SAS and Stan code that can be adopted to implement our computational approach in both time-fixed and longitudinal data.
Classification of BCI-EEG based on augmented covariance matrix
Objective: Electroencephalography signals are recorded as a multidimensional dataset. We propose a new framework based on the augmented covariance extracted from an autoregressive model to improve motor imagery classification. Methods: From the autoregressive model can be derived the Yule-Walker equations, which show the emergence of a symmetric positive definite matrix: the augmented covariance matrix. The state-of the art for classifying covariance matrices is based on Riemannian Geometry. A fairly natural idea is therefore to extend the standard approach using these augmented covariance matrices. The methodology for creating the augmented covariance matrix shows a natural connection with the delay embedding theorem proposed by Takens for dynamical systems. Such an embedding method is based on the knowledge of two parameters: the delay and the embedding dimension, respectively related to the lag and the order of the autoregressive model. This approach provides new methods to compute the hyper-parameters in addition to standard grid search. Results: The augmented covariance matrix performed noticeably better than any state-of-the-art methods. We will test our approach on several datasets and several subjects using the MOABB framework, using both within-session and cross-session evaluation. Conclusion: The improvement in results is due to the fact that the augmented covariance matrix incorporates not only spatial but also temporal information, incorporating nonlinear components of the signal through an embedding procedure, which allows the leveraging of dynamical systems algorithms. Significance: These results extend the concepts and the results of the Riemannian distance based classification algorithm.
Multi-Fidelity Covariance Estimation in the Log-Euclidean Geometry
We introduce a multi-fidelity estimator of covariance matrices that employs the log-Euclidean geometry of the symmetric positive-definite manifold. The estimator fuses samples from a hierarchy of data sources of differing fidelities and costs for variance reduction while guaranteeing definiteness, in contrast with previous approaches. The new estimator makes covariance estimation tractable in applications where simulation or data collection is expensive; to that end, we develop an optimal sample allocation scheme that minimizes the mean-squared error of the estimator given a fixed budget. Guaranteed definiteness is crucial to metric learning, data assimilation, and other downstream tasks. Evaluations of our approach using data from physical applications (heat conduction, fluid dynamics) demonstrate more accurate metric learning and speedups of more than one order of magnitude compared to benchmarks.
Towards Physics-Guided Foundation Models
Traditional foundation models are pre-trained on broad datasets to reduce the training resources (e.g., time, energy, labeled samples) needed for fine-tuning a wide range of downstream tasks. However, traditional foundation models struggle with out-of-distribution prediction and can produce outputs that are unrealistic and physically infeasible. We propose the notation of physics-guided foundation models (PGFM), that is, foundation models integrated with broad or general domain (e.g., scientific) physical knowledge applicable to a wide range of downstream tasks.
PhysX: Physical-Grounded 3D Asset Generation
3D modeling is moving from virtual to physical. Existing 3D generation primarily emphasizes geometries and textures while neglecting physical-grounded modeling. Consequently, despite the rapid development of 3D generative models, the synthesized 3D assets often overlook rich and important physical properties, hampering their real-world application in physical domains like simulation and embodied AI. As an initial attempt to address this challenge, we propose PhysX, an end-to-end paradigm for physical-grounded 3D asset generation. 1) To bridge the critical gap in physics-annotated 3D datasets, we present PhysXNet - the first physics-grounded 3D dataset systematically annotated across five foundational dimensions: absolute scale, material, affordance, kinematics, and function description. In particular, we devise a scalable human-in-the-loop annotation pipeline based on vision-language models, which enables efficient creation of physics-first assets from raw 3D assets.2) Furthermore, we propose PhysXGen, a feed-forward framework for physics-grounded image-to-3D asset generation, injecting physical knowledge into the pre-trained 3D structural space. Specifically, PhysXGen employs a dual-branch architecture to explicitly model the latent correlations between 3D structures and physical properties, thereby producing 3D assets with plausible physical predictions while preserving the native geometry quality. Extensive experiments validate the superior performance and promising generalization capability of our framework. All the code, data, and models will be released to facilitate future research in generative physical AI.
Learning Smooth and Expressive Interatomic Potentials for Physical Property Prediction
Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have become increasingly effective at approximating quantum mechanical calculations at a fraction of the computational cost. However, lower errors on held out test sets do not always translate to improved results on downstream physical property prediction tasks. In this paper, we propose testing MLIPs on their practical ability to conserve energy during molecular dynamic simulations. If passed, improved correlations are found between test errors and their performance on physical property prediction tasks. We identify choices which may lead to models failing this test, and use these observations to improve upon highly-expressive models. The resulting model, eSEN, provides state-of-the-art results on a range of physical property prediction tasks, including materials stability prediction, thermal conductivity prediction, and phonon calculations.
Using remotely sensed data for air pollution assessment
Air pollution constitutes a global problem of paramount importance that affects not only human health, but also the environment. The existence of spatial and temporal data regarding the concentrations of pollutants is crucial for performing air pollution studies and monitor emissions. However, although observation data presents great temporal coverage, the number of stations is very limited and they are usually built in more populated areas. The main objective of this work is to create models capable of inferring pollutant concentrations in locations where no observation data exists. A machine learning model, more specifically the random forest model, was developed for predicting concentrations in the Iberian Peninsula in 2019 for five selected pollutants: NO_2, O_3 SO_2, PM10, and PM2.5. Model features include satellite measurements, meteorological variables, land use classification, temporal variables (month, day of year), and spatial variables (latitude, longitude, altitude). The models were evaluated using various methods, including station 10-fold cross-validation, in which in each fold observations from 10\% of the stations are used as testing data and the rest as training data. The R^2, RMSE and mean bias were determined for each model. The NO_2 and O_3 models presented good values of R^2, 0.5524 and 0.7462, respectively. However, the SO_2, PM10, and PM2.5 models performed very poorly in this regard, with R^2 values of -0.0231, 0.3722, and 0.3303, respectively. All models slightly overestimated the ground concentrations, except the O_3 model. All models presented acceptable cross-validation RMSE, except the O_3 and PM10 models where the mean value was a little higher (12.5934 mu g/m^3 and 10.4737 mu g/m^3, respectively).
PFGM++: Unlocking the Potential of Physics-Inspired Generative Models
We introduce a new family of physics-inspired generative models termed PFGM++ that unifies diffusion models and Poisson Flow Generative Models (PFGM). These models realize generative trajectories for N dimensional data by embedding paths in N{+}D dimensional space while still controlling the progression with a simple scalar norm of the D additional variables. The new models reduce to PFGM when D{=}1 and to diffusion models when D{to}infty. The flexibility of choosing D allows us to trade off robustness against rigidity as increasing D results in more concentrated coupling between the data and the additional variable norms. We dispense with the biased large batch field targets used in PFGM and instead provide an unbiased perturbation-based objective similar to diffusion models. To explore different choices of D, we provide a direct alignment method for transferring well-tuned hyperparameters from diffusion models (D{to} infty) to any finite D values. Our experiments show that models with finite D can be superior to previous state-of-the-art diffusion models on CIFAR-10/FFHQ 64{times}64 datasets, with FID scores of 1.91/2.43 when D{=}2048/128. In class-conditional setting, D{=}2048 yields current state-of-the-art FID of 1.74 on CIFAR-10. In addition, we demonstrate that models with smaller D exhibit improved robustness against modeling errors. Code is available at https://github.com/Newbeeer/pfgmpp
Interpretable Multi-Task PINN for Emotion Recognition and EDA Prediction
Understanding and predicting human emotional and physiological states using wearable sensors has important applications in stress monitoring, mental health assessment, and affective computing. This study presents a novel Multi-Task Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) that performs Electrodermal Activity (EDA) prediction and emotion classification simultaneously, using the publicly available WESAD dataset. The model integrates psychological self-report features (PANAS and SAM) with a physics-inspired differential equation representing EDA dynamics, enforcing biophysically grounded constraints through a custom loss function. This loss combines EDA regression, emotion classification, and a physics residual term for improved interpretability. The architecture supports dual outputs for both tasks and is trained under a unified multi-task framework. Evaluated using 5-fold cross-validation, the model achieves an average EDA RMSE of 0.0362, Pearson correlation of 0.9919, and F1-score of 94.08 percent. These results outperform classical models such as SVR and XGBoost, as well as ablated variants like emotion-only and EDA-only models. In addition, the learned physical parameters including decay rate (alpha_0), emotional sensitivity (beta), and time scaling (gamma) are interpretable and stable across folds, aligning with known principles of human physiology. This work is the first to introduce a multi-task PINN framework for wearable emotion recognition, offering improved performance, generalizability, and model transparency. The proposed system provides a foundation for future interpretable and multimodal applications in healthcare and human-computer interaction.
Flow Matching Meets PDEs: A Unified Framework for Physics-Constrained Generation
Generative machine learning methods, such as diffusion models and flow matching, have shown great potential in modeling complex system behaviors and building efficient surrogate models. However, these methods typically learn the underlying physics implicitly from data. We propose Physics-Based Flow Matching (PBFM), a novel generative framework that explicitly embeds physical constraints, both PDE residuals and algebraic relations, into the flow matching objective. We also introduce temporal unrolling at training time that improves the accuracy of the final, noise-free sample prediction. Our method jointly minimizes the flow matching loss and the physics-based residual loss without requiring hyperparameter tuning of their relative weights. Additionally, we analyze the role of the minimum noise level, sigma_{min}, in the context of physical constraints and evaluate a stochastic sampling strategy that helps to reduce physical residuals. Through extensive benchmarks on three representative PDE problems, we show that our approach yields up to an 8times more accurate physical residuals compared to FM, while clearly outperforming existing algorithms in terms of distributional accuracy. PBFM thus provides a principled and efficient framework for surrogate modeling, uncertainty quantification, and accelerated simulation in physics and engineering applications.
Phy124: Fast Physics-Driven 4D Content Generation from a Single Image
4D content generation focuses on creating dynamic 3D objects that change over time. Existing methods primarily rely on pre-trained video diffusion models, utilizing sampling processes or reference videos. However, these approaches face significant challenges. Firstly, the generated 4D content often fails to adhere to real-world physics since video diffusion models do not incorporate physical priors. Secondly, the extensive sampling process and the large number of parameters in diffusion models result in exceedingly time-consuming generation processes. To address these issues, we introduce Phy124, a novel, fast, and physics-driven method for controllable 4D content generation from a single image. Phy124 integrates physical simulation directly into the 4D generation process, ensuring that the resulting 4D content adheres to natural physical laws. Phy124 also eliminates the use of diffusion models during the 4D dynamics generation phase, significantly speeding up the process. Phy124 allows for the control of 4D dynamics, including movement speed and direction, by manipulating external forces. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Phy124 generates high-fidelity 4D content with significantly reduced inference times, achieving stateof-the-art performance. The code and generated 4D content are available at the provided link: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/BBF2/.
Continuous Field Reconstruction from Sparse Observations with Implicit Neural Networks
Reliably reconstructing physical fields from sparse sensor data is a challenge that frequently arises in many scientific domains. In practice, the process generating the data often is not understood to sufficient accuracy. Therefore, there is a growing interest in using the deep neural network route to address the problem. This work presents a novel approach that learns a continuous representation of the physical field using implicit neural representations (INRs). Specifically, after factorizing spatiotemporal variability into spatial and temporal components using the separation of variables technique, the method learns relevant basis functions from sparsely sampled irregular data points to develop a continuous representation of the data. In experimental evaluations, the proposed model outperforms recent INR methods, offering superior reconstruction quality on simulation data from a state-of-the-art climate model and a second dataset that comprises ultra-high resolution satellite-based sea surface temperature fields.
CogDPM: Diffusion Probabilistic Models via Cognitive Predictive Coding
Predictive Coding (PC) is a theoretical framework in cognitive science suggesting that the human brain processes cognition through spatiotemporal prediction of the visual world. Existing studies have developed spatiotemporal prediction neural networks based on the PC theory, emulating its two core mechanisms: Correcting predictions from residuals and hierarchical learning. However, these models do not show the enhancement of prediction skills on real-world forecasting tasks and ignore the Precision Weighting mechanism of PC theory. The precision weighting mechanism posits that the brain allocates more attention to signals with lower precision, contributing to the cognitive ability of human brains. This work introduces the Cognitive Diffusion Probabilistic Models (CogDPM), which demonstrate the connection between diffusion probabilistic models and PC theory. CogDPM features a precision estimation method based on the hierarchical sampling capabilities of diffusion models and weight the guidance with precision weights estimated by the inherent property of diffusion models. We experimentally show that the precision weights effectively estimate the data predictability. We apply CogDPM to real-world prediction tasks using the United Kindom precipitation and ERA surface wind datasets. Our results demonstrate that CogDPM outperforms both existing domain-specific operational models and general deep prediction models by providing more proficient forecasting.
A Hybrid Deep Learning-based Approach for Optimal Genotype by Environment Selection
Precise crop yield prediction is essential for improving agricultural practices and ensuring crop resilience in varying climates. Integrating weather data across the growing season, especially for different crop varieties, is crucial for understanding their adaptability in the face of climate change. In the MLCAS2021 Crop Yield Prediction Challenge, we utilized a dataset comprising 93,028 training records to forecast yields for 10,337 test records, covering 159 locations across 28 U.S. states and Canadian provinces over 13 years (2003-2015). This dataset included details on 5,838 distinct genotypes and daily weather data for a 214-day growing season, enabling comprehensive analysis. As one of the winning teams, we developed two novel convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures: the CNN-DNN model, combining CNN and fully-connected networks, and the CNN-LSTM-DNN model, with an added LSTM layer for weather variables. Leveraging the Generalized Ensemble Method (GEM), we determined optimal model weights, resulting in superior performance compared to baseline models. The GEM model achieved lower RMSE (5.55% to 39.88%), reduced MAE (5.34% to 43.76%), and higher correlation coefficients (1.1% to 10.79%) when evaluated on test data. We applied the CNN-DNN model to identify top-performing genotypes for various locations and weather conditions, aiding genotype selection based on weather variables. Our data-driven approach is valuable for scenarios with limited testing years. Additionally, a feature importance analysis using RMSE change highlighted the significance of location, MG, year, and genotype, along with the importance of weather variables MDNI and AP.
The P versus NP Problem in Quantum Physics
Motivated by the fact that information is encoded and processed by physical systems, the P versus NP problem is examined in terms of physical processes. In particular, we consider P as a class of deterministic, and NP as nondeterministic, polynomial-time physical processes. Based on these identifications, we review a self-reference physical process in quantum theory, which belongs to NP but cannot be contained in P.
From Neurons to Neutrons: A Case Study in Interpretability
Mechanistic Interpretability (MI) promises a path toward fully understanding how neural networks make their predictions. Prior work demonstrates that even when trained to perform simple arithmetic, models can implement a variety of algorithms (sometimes concurrently) depending on initialization and hyperparameters. Does this mean neuron-level interpretability techniques have limited applicability? We argue that high-dimensional neural networks can learn low-dimensional representations of their training data that are useful beyond simply making good predictions. Such representations can be understood through the mechanistic interpretability lens and provide insights that are surprisingly faithful to human-derived domain knowledge. This indicates that such approaches to interpretability can be useful for deriving a new understanding of a problem from models trained to solve it. As a case study, we extract nuclear physics concepts by studying models trained to reproduce nuclear data.
OmniPhysGS: 3D Constitutive Gaussians for General Physics-Based Dynamics Generation
Recently, significant advancements have been made in the reconstruction and generation of 3D assets, including static cases and those with physical interactions. To recover the physical properties of 3D assets, existing methods typically assume that all materials belong to a specific predefined category (e.g., elasticity). However, such assumptions ignore the complex composition of multiple heterogeneous objects in real scenarios and tend to render less physically plausible animation given a wider range of objects. We propose OmniPhysGS for synthesizing a physics-based 3D dynamic scene composed of more general objects. A key design of OmniPhysGS is treating each 3D asset as a collection of constitutive 3D Gaussians. For each Gaussian, its physical material is represented by an ensemble of 12 physical domain-expert sub-models (rubber, metal, honey, water, etc.), which greatly enhances the flexibility of the proposed model. In the implementation, we define a scene by user-specified prompts and supervise the estimation of material weighting factors via a pretrained video diffusion model. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that OmniPhysGS achieves more general and realistic physical dynamics across a broader spectrum of materials, including elastic, viscoelastic, plastic, and fluid substances, as well as interactions between different materials. Our method surpasses existing methods by approximately 3% to 16% in metrics of visual quality and text alignment.
Twin-2K-500: A dataset for building digital twins of over 2,000 people based on their answers to over 500 questions
LLM-based digital twin simulation, where large language models are used to emulate individual human behavior, holds great promise for research in AI, social science, and digital experimentation. However, progress in this area has been hindered by the scarcity of real, individual-level datasets that are both large and publicly available. This lack of high-quality ground truth limits both the development and validation of digital twin methodologies. To address this gap, we introduce a large-scale, public dataset designed to capture a rich and holistic view of individual human behavior. We survey a representative sample of N = 2,058 participants (average 2.42 hours per person) in the US across four waves with 500 questions in total, covering a comprehensive battery of demographic, psychological, economic, personality, and cognitive measures, as well as replications of behavioral economics experiments and a pricing survey. The final wave repeats tasks from earlier waves to establish a test-retest accuracy baseline. Initial analyses suggest the data are of high quality and show promise for constructing digital twins that predict human behavior well at the individual and aggregate levels. By making the full dataset publicly available, we aim to establish a valuable testbed for the development and benchmarking of LLM-based persona simulations. Beyond LLM applications, due to its unique breadth and scale the dataset also enables broad social science research, including studies of cross-construct correlations and heterogeneous treatment effects.
Regions of Reliability in the Evaluation of Multivariate Probabilistic Forecasts
Multivariate probabilistic time series forecasts are commonly evaluated via proper scoring rules, i.e., functions that are minimal in expectation for the ground-truth distribution. However, this property is not sufficient to guarantee good discrimination in the non-asymptotic regime. In this paper, we provide the first systematic finite-sample study of proper scoring rules for time-series forecasting evaluation. Through a power analysis, we identify the "region of reliability" of a scoring rule, i.e., the set of practical conditions where it can be relied on to identify forecasting errors. We carry out our analysis on a comprehensive synthetic benchmark, specifically designed to test several key discrepancies between ground-truth and forecast distributions, and we gauge the generalizability of our findings to real-world tasks with an application to an electricity production problem. Our results reveal critical shortcomings in the evaluation of multivariate probabilistic forecasts as commonly performed in the literature.
Hierarchical Fine-grained Preference Optimization for Physically Plausible Video Generation
Recent advancements in video generation have enabled the creation of high-quality, visually compelling videos. However, generating videos that adhere to the laws of physics remains a critical challenge for applications requiring realism and accuracy. In this work, we propose PhysHPO, a novel framework for Hierarchical Cross-Modal Direct Preference Optimization, to tackle this challenge by enabling fine-grained preference alignment for physically plausible video generation. PhysHPO optimizes video alignment across four hierarchical granularities: a) Instance Level, aligning the overall video content with the input prompt; b) State Level, ensuring temporal consistency using boundary frames as anchors; c) Motion Level, modeling motion trajectories for realistic dynamics; and d) Semantic Level, maintaining logical consistency between narrative and visuals. Recognizing that real-world videos are the best reflections of physical phenomena, we further introduce an automated data selection pipeline to efficiently identify and utilize "good data" from existing large-scale text-video datasets, thereby eliminating the need for costly and time-intensive dataset construction. Extensive experiments on both physics-focused and general capability benchmarks demonstrate that PhysHPO significantly improves physical plausibility and overall video generation quality of advanced models. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to explore fine-grained preference alignment and data selection for video generation, paving the way for more realistic and human-preferred video generation paradigms.
Be More Active! Understanding the Differences between Mean and Sampled Representations of Variational Autoencoders
The ability of Variational Autoencoders to learn disentangled representations has made them appealing for practical applications. However, their mean representations, which are generally used for downstream tasks, have recently been shown to be more correlated than their sampled counterpart, on which disentanglement is usually measured. In this paper, we refine this observation through the lens of selective posterior collapse, which states that only a subset of the learned representations, the active variables, is encoding useful information while the rest (the passive variables) is discarded. We first extend the existing definition to multiple data examples and show that active variables are equally disentangled in mean and sampled representations. Based on this extension and the pre-trained models from disentanglement lib, we then isolate the passive variables and show that they are responsible for the discrepancies between mean and sampled representations. Specifically, passive variables exhibit high correlation scores with other variables in mean representations while being fully uncorrelated in sampled ones. We thus conclude that despite what their higher correlation might suggest, mean representations are still good candidates for downstream tasks applications. However, it may be beneficial to remove their passive variables, especially when used with models sensitive to correlated features.
IntPhys 2: Benchmarking Intuitive Physics Understanding In Complex Synthetic Environments
We present IntPhys 2, a video benchmark designed to evaluate the intuitive physics understanding of deep learning models. Building on the original IntPhys benchmark, IntPhys 2 focuses on four core principles related to macroscopic objects: Permanence, Immutability, Spatio-Temporal Continuity, and Solidity. These conditions are inspired by research into intuitive physical understanding emerging during early childhood. IntPhys 2 offers a comprehensive suite of tests, based on the violation of expectation framework, that challenge models to differentiate between possible and impossible events within controlled and diverse virtual environments. Alongside the benchmark, we provide performance evaluations of several state-of-the-art models. Our findings indicate that while these models demonstrate basic visual understanding, they face significant challenges in grasping intuitive physics across the four principles in complex scenes, with most models performing at chance levels (50%), in stark contrast to human performance, which achieves near-perfect accuracy. This underscores the gap between current models and human-like intuitive physics understanding, highlighting the need for advancements in model architectures and training methodologies.
Adaptive Safety Evaluation for Connected and Automated Vehicles with Sparse Control Variates
Safety performance evaluation is critical for developing and deploying connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). One prevailing way is to design testing scenarios using prior knowledge of CAVs, test CAVs in these scenarios, and then evaluate their safety performances. However, significant differences between CAVs and prior knowledge could severely reduce the evaluation efficiency. Towards addressing this issue, most existing studies focus on the adaptive design of testing scenarios during the CAV testing process, but so far they cannot be applied to high-dimensional scenarios. In this paper, we focus on the adaptive safety performance evaluation by leveraging the testing results, after the CAV testing process. It can significantly improve the evaluation efficiency and be applied to high-dimensional scenarios. Specifically, instead of directly evaluating the unknown quantity (e.g., crash rates) of CAV safety performances, we evaluate the differences between the unknown quantity and known quantity (i.e., control variates). By leveraging the testing results, the control variates could be well designed and optimized such that the differences are close to zero, so the evaluation variance could be dramatically reduced for different CAVs. To handle the high-dimensional scenarios, we propose the sparse control variates method, where the control variates are designed only for the sparse and critical variables of scenarios. According to the number of critical variables in each scenario, the control variates are stratified into strata and optimized within each stratum using multiple linear regression techniques. We justify the proposed method's effectiveness by rigorous theoretical analysis and empirical study of high-dimensional overtaking scenarios.
Digitizing Touch with an Artificial Multimodal Fingertip
Touch is a crucial sensing modality that provides rich information about object properties and interactions with the physical environment. Humans and robots both benefit from using touch to perceive and interact with the surrounding environment (Johansson and Flanagan, 2009; Li et al., 2020; Calandra et al., 2017). However, no existing systems provide rich, multi-modal digital touch-sensing capabilities through a hemispherical compliant embodiment. Here, we describe several conceptual and technological innovations to improve the digitization of touch. These advances are embodied in an artificial finger-shaped sensor with advanced sensing capabilities. Significantly, this fingertip contains high-resolution sensors (~8.3 million taxels) that respond to omnidirectional touch, capture multi-modal signals, and use on-device artificial intelligence to process the data in real time. Evaluations show that the artificial fingertip can resolve spatial features as small as 7 um, sense normal and shear forces with a resolution of 1.01 mN and 1.27 mN, respectively, perceive vibrations up to 10 kHz, sense heat, and even sense odor. Furthermore, it embeds an on-device AI neural network accelerator that acts as a peripheral nervous system on a robot and mimics the reflex arc found in humans. These results demonstrate the possibility of digitizing touch with superhuman performance. The implications are profound, and we anticipate potential applications in robotics (industrial, medical, agricultural, and consumer-level), virtual reality and telepresence, prosthetics, and e-commerce. Toward digitizing touch at scale, we open-source a modular platform to facilitate future research on the nature of touch.
Dynamical Model of J/Ψ photo-production on the nucleon
A dynamical model based on a phenomenological charm quark-nucleon(c-N) potential v_{cN} and the Pomeron-exchange mechanism is constructed to investigate the J/Psi photo-production on the nucleon from threshold to invariant mass W=300 GeV. The J/Psi-N potential,V_{J/Psi N}(r),is constructed by folding v_{cN} into the wavefunction Phi_{J/Psi}(cc) of J/Psi within a Constituent Quark Model(CQM) of Ref.[43]. A photo-production amplitude is also generated by v_{cN} by a cc-loop integration over the gammarightarrow cc vertex function and Phi_{J/Psi}(cc). No commonly used Vector Meson Dominance assumption is used to define this photo-production amplitude which is needed to describe the data near the threshold. The potential v_{cN}(r) is parameterized in a form such that the predicted V_{J/Psi N}(r) at large distances has the same Yukawa potential form extracted from a Lattice QCD(LQCD) calculation of Ref.[18]. The parameters of v_{cN} are determined by fitting the total cross section data of JLab by performing calculations that include J/Psi-N final state interactions(FSI). The resulting differential cross sections are found in good agreements with the data. It is shown that the FSI effects dominate the cross section in the very near threshold region, allowing for sensitive testing of the predicted J/Psi-N scattering amplitudes. By imposing the constraints of J/Psi-N potential extracted from the LQCD calculation, we have obtained three J/Psi-N potentials which fit the JLab data equally well. The resulting J/Psi-N scattering lengths are in the range of a=(-0.05 fm sim -0.25 fm). With the determined v_{cN}(r) and the wavefunctions generated from the same CQM, the constructed model is used to predict the cross sections of photo-production of eta_c(1S) and Psi(2S) mesons for future experimental tests.
PhysicsGen: Can Generative Models Learn from Images to Predict Complex Physical Relations?
The image-to-image translation abilities of generative learning models have recently made significant progress in the estimation of complex (steered) mappings between image distributions. While appearance based tasks like image in-painting or style transfer have been studied at length, we propose to investigate the potential of generative models in the context of physical simulations. Providing a dataset of 300k image-pairs and baseline evaluations for three different physical simulation tasks, we propose a benchmark to investigate the following research questions: i) are generative models able to learn complex physical relations from input-output image pairs? ii) what speedups can be achieved by replacing differential equation based simulations? While baseline evaluations of different current models show the potential for high speedups (ii), these results also show strong limitations toward the physical correctness (i). This underlines the need for new methods to enforce physical correctness. Data, baseline models and evaluation code http://www.physics-gen.org.
Perceptual Scales Predicted by Fisher Information Metrics
Perception is often viewed as a process that transforms physical variables, external to an observer, into internal psychological variables. Such a process can be modeled by a function coined perceptual scale. The perceptual scale can be deduced from psychophysical measurements that consist in comparing the relative differences between stimuli (i.e. difference scaling experiments). However, this approach is often overlooked by the modeling and experimentation communities. Here, we demonstrate the value of measuring the perceptual scale of classical (spatial frequency, orientation) and less classical physical variables (interpolation between textures) by embedding it in recent probabilistic modeling of perception. First, we show that the assumption that an observer has an internal representation of univariate parameters such as spatial frequency or orientation while stimuli are high-dimensional does not lead to contradictory predictions when following the theoretical framework. Second, we show that the measured perceptual scale corresponds to the transduction function hypothesized in this framework. In particular, we demonstrate that it is related to the Fisher information of the generative model that underlies perception and we test the predictions given by the generative model of different stimuli in a set a of difference scaling experiments. Our main conclusion is that the perceptual scale is mostly driven by the stimulus power spectrum. Finally, we propose that this measure of perceptual scale is a way to push further the notion of perceptual distances by estimating the perceptual geometry of images i.e. the path between images instead of simply the distance between those.
Analyzing Wearables Dataset to Predict ADLs and Falls: A Pilot Study
Healthcare is an important aspect of human life. Use of technologies in healthcare has increased manifolds after the pandemic. Internet of Things based systems and devices proposed in literature can help elders, children and adults facing/experiencing health problems. This paper exhaustively reviews thirty-nine wearable based datasets which can be used for evaluating the system to recognize Activities of Daily Living and Falls. A comparative analysis on the SisFall dataset using five machine learning methods i.e., Logistic Regression, Linear Discriminant Analysis, K-Nearest Neighbor, Decision Tree and Naive Bayes is performed in python. The dataset is modified in two ways, in first all the attributes present in dataset are used as it is and labelled in binary form. In second, magnitude of three axes(x,y,z) for three sensors value are computed and then used in experiment with label attribute. The experiments are performed on one subject, ten subjects and all the subjects and compared in terms of accuracy, precision and recall. The results obtained from this study proves that KNN outperforms other machine learning methods in terms of accuracy, precision and recall. It is also concluded that personalization of data improves accuracy.
Pooling Image Datasets With Multiple Covariate Shift and Imbalance
Small sample sizes are common in many disciplines, which necessitates pooling roughly similar datasets across multiple institutions to study weak but relevant associations between images and disease outcomes. Such data often manifest shift/imbalance in covariates (i.e., secondary non-imaging data). Controlling for such nuisance variables is common within standard statistical analysis, but the ideas do not directly apply to overparameterized models. Consequently, recent work has shown how strategies from invariant representation learning provides a meaningful starting point, but the current repertoire of methods is limited to accounting for shifts/imbalances in just a couple of covariates at a time. In this paper, we show how viewing this problem from the perspective of Category theory provides a simple and effective solution that completely avoids elaborate multi-stage training pipelines that would otherwise be needed. We show the effectiveness of this approach via extensive experiments on real datasets. Further, we discuss how this style of formulation offers a unified perspective on at least 5+ distinct problem settings, from self-supervised learning to matching problems in 3D reconstruction.
Statistical Learning under Heterogenous Distribution Shift
This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.
Improve Machine Learning carbon footprint using Nvidia GPU and Mixed Precision training for classification models -- Part I
This is the 1st part of the dissertation for my master degree and compares the power consumption using the default floating point (32bit) and Nvidia mixed precision (16bit and 32bit) while training a classification ML model. A custom PC with specific hardware was built to perform the experiments, and different ML hyper-parameters, such as batch size, neurons, and epochs, were chosen to build Deep Neural Networks (DNN). Additionally, various software was used during the experiments to collect the power consumption data in Watts from the Graphics Processing Unit (GPU), Central Processing Unit (CPU), Random Access Memory (RAM) and manually from a wattmeter connected to the wall. A benchmarking test with default hyper parameter values for the DNN was used as a reference, while the experiments used a combination of different settings. The results were recorded in Excel, and descriptive statistics were chosen to calculate the mean between the groups and compare them using graphs and tables. The outcome was positive when using mixed precision combined with specific hyper-parameters. Compared to the benchmarking, the optimisation for the classification reduced the power consumption between 7 and 11 Watts. Similarly, the carbon footprint is reduced because the calculation uses the same power consumption data. Still, a consideration is required when configuring hyper-parameters because it can negatively affect hardware performance. However, this research required inferential statistics, specifically ANOVA and T-test, to compare the relationship between the means. Furthermore, tests indicated no statistical significance of the relationship between the benchmarking and experiments. However, a more extensive implementation with a cluster of GPUs can increase the sample size significantly, as it is an essential factor and can change the outcome of the statistical analysis.
Singapore Soundscape Site Selection Survey (S5): Identification of Characteristic Soundscapes of Singapore via Weighted k-means Clustering
The ecological validity of soundscape studies usually rests on a choice of soundscapes that are representative of the perceptual space under investigation. For example, a soundscape pleasantness study might investigate locations with soundscapes ranging from "pleasant" to "annoying". The choice of soundscapes is typically researcher-led, but a participant-led process can reduce selection bias and improve result reliability. Hence, we propose a robust participant-led method to pinpoint characteristic soundscapes possessing arbitrary perceptual attributes. We validate our method by identifying Singaporean soundscapes spanning the perceptual quadrants generated from the "Pleasantness" and "Eventfulness" axes of the ISO 12913-2 circumplex model of soundscape perception, as perceived by local experts. From memory and experience, 67 participants first selected locations corresponding to each perceptual quadrant in each major planning region of Singapore. We then performed weighted k-means clustering on the selected locations, with weights for each location derived from previous frequencies and durations spent in each location by each participant. Weights hence acted as proxies for participant confidence. In total, 62 locations were thereby identified as suitable locations with characteristic soundscapes for further research utilizing the ISO 12913-2 perceptual quadrants. Audio-visual recordings and acoustic characterization of the soundscapes will be made in a future study.
pyhgf: A neural network library for predictive coding
Bayesian models of cognition have gained considerable traction in computational neuroscience and psychiatry. Their scopes are now expected to expand rapidly to artificial intelligence, providing general inference frameworks to support embodied, adaptable, and energy-efficient autonomous agents. A central theory in this domain is predictive coding, which posits that learning and behaviour are driven by hierarchical probabilistic inferences about the causes of sensory inputs. Biological realism constrains these networks to rely on simple local computations in the form of precision-weighted predictions and prediction errors. This can make this framework highly efficient, but its implementation comes with unique challenges on the software development side. Embedding such models in standard neural network libraries often becomes limiting, as these libraries' compilation and differentiation backends can force a conceptual separation between optimization algorithms and the systems being optimized. This critically departs from other biological principles such as self-monitoring, self-organisation, cellular growth and functional plasticity. In this paper, we introduce pyhgf: a Python package backed by JAX and Rust for creating, manipulating and sampling dynamic networks for predictive coding. We improve over other frameworks by enclosing the network components as transparent, modular and malleable variables in the message-passing steps. The resulting graphs can implement arbitrary computational complexities as beliefs propagation. But the transparency of core variables can also translate into inference processes that leverage self-organisation principles, and express structure learning, meta-learning or causal discovery as the consequence of network structural adaptation to surprising inputs. The code, tutorials and documentation are hosted at: https://github.com/ilabcode/pyhgf.
Measuring Data
We identify the task of measuring data to quantitatively characterize the composition of machine learning data and datasets. Similar to an object's height, width, and volume, data measurements quantify different attributes of data along common dimensions that support comparison. Several lines of research have proposed what we refer to as measurements, with differing terminology; we bring some of this work together, particularly in fields of computer vision and language, and build from it to motivate measuring data as a critical component of responsible AI development. Measuring data aids in systematically building and analyzing machine learning (ML) data towards specific goals and gaining better control of what modern ML systems will learn. We conclude with a discussion of the many avenues of future work, the limitations of data measurements, and how to leverage these measurement approaches in research and practice.
Radiating Love: adiabatic tidal fluxes and modes up to next-to-next-to-leading post-Newtonian order
We present the analytic evaluation of the gravitational energy and of the angular momentum flux with tidal effects for inspiraling compact binaries, at next-to-next-to-leading post-Newtoian (2PN) order, within the effective field theory diagrammatic approach. We first compute the stress-energy tensor for a binary system, that requires the evaluation of two-point Feynman integrals, up to two loops. Then, we extract the multipole moments of the system, which we present for generic orbits in center-of-mass coordinates, and which are needed for the evaluation of the total gravitational energy and the angular momentum flux, for generic orbits. Finally, we provide the expression of gauge invariant quantities such as the fluxes, and the mode amplitudes and phase of the emitted gravitational wave, for circular orbits. Our findings are useful to update earlier theoretical studies as well as related phenomenological analyses, and waveform models
AirCast: Improving Air Pollution Forecasting Through Multi-Variable Data Alignment
Air pollution remains a leading global health risk, exacerbated by rapid industrialization and urbanization, contributing significantly to morbidity and mortality rates. In this paper, we introduce AirCast, a novel multi-variable air pollution forecasting model, by combining weather and air quality variables. AirCast employs a multi-task head architecture that simultaneously forecasts atmospheric conditions and pollutant concentrations, improving its understanding of how weather patterns affect air quality. Predicting extreme pollution events is challenging due to their rare occurrence in historic data, resulting in a heavy-tailed distribution of pollution levels. To address this, we propose a novel Frequency-weighted Mean Absolute Error (fMAE) loss, adapted from the class-balanced loss for regression tasks. Informed from domain knowledge, we investigate the selection of key variables known to influence pollution levels. Additionally, we align existing weather and chemical datasets across spatial and temporal dimensions. AirCast's integrated approach, combining multi-task learning, frequency weighted loss and domain informed variable selection, enables more accurate pollution forecasts. Our source code and models are made public here (https://github.com/vishalned/AirCast.git)
A Systematic Computational Framework for Practical Identifiability Analysis in Mathematical Models Arising from Biology
Practical identifiability is a critical concern in data-driven modeling of mathematical systems. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for practical identifiability analysis to evaluate parameter identifiability in mathematical models of biological systems. Starting with a rigorous mathematical definition of practical identifiability, we demonstrate its equivalence to the invertibility of the Fisher Information Matrix. Our framework establishes the relationship between practical identifiability and coordinate identifiability, introducing a novel metric that simplifies and accelerates the evaluation of parameter identifiability compared to the profile likelihood method. Additionally, we introduce new regularization terms to address non-identifiable parameters, enabling uncertainty quantification and improving model reliability. To guide experimental design, we present an optimal data collection algorithm that ensures all model parameters are practically identifiable. Applications to Hill functions, neural networks, and dynamic biological models demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of the proposed computational framework in uncovering critical biological processes and identifying key observable variables.