Daily Papers

Knowledge distillation is classically a procedure where a neural network is trained on the output of another network along with the original targets in order to transfer knowledge between the architectures. The special case of self-distillation, where the network architectures are identical, has been observed to improve generalization accuracy. In this paper, we consider an iterative variant of self-distillation in a kernel regression setting, in which successive steps incorporate both model outputs and the ground-truth targets. This allows us to provide the first theoretical results on the importance of using the weighted ground-truth targets in self-distillation. Our focus is on fitting nonlinear functions to training data with a weighted mean square error objective function suitable for distillation, subject to ell_2 regularization of the model parameters. We show that any such function obtained with self-distillation can be calculated directly as a function of the initial fit, and that infinite distillation steps yields the same optimization problem as the original with amplified regularization. Furthermore, we provide a closed form solution for the optimal choice of weighting parameter at each step, and show how to efficiently estimate this weighting parameter for deep learning and significantly reduce the computational requirements compared to a grid search.

Over the past few years, due to the rapid development of machine learning (ML) models for weather forecasting, state-of-the-art ML models have shown superior performance compared to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)'s high-resolution forecast (HRES) in 10-day forecasts at a spatial resolution of 0.25 degree. However, the challenge remains to perform comparably to the ECMWF ensemble mean (EM) in 15-day forecasts. Previous studies have demonstrated the importance of mitigating the accumulation of forecast errors for effective long-term forecasts. Despite numerous efforts to reduce accumulation errors, including autoregressive multi-time step loss, using a single model is found to be insufficient to achieve optimal performance in both short and long lead times. Therefore, we present FuXi, a cascaded ML weather forecasting system that provides 15-day global forecasts with a temporal resolution of 6 hours and a spatial resolution of 0.25 degree. FuXi is developed using 39 years of the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis dataset. The performance evaluation, based on latitude-weighted root mean square error (RMSE) and anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), demonstrates that FuXi has comparable forecast performance to ECMWF EM in 15-day forecasts, making FuXi the first ML-based weather forecasting system to accomplish this achievement.

Diffusion-based generative models have recently gained attention in speech enhancement (SE), providing an alternative to conventional supervised methods. These models transform clean speech training samples into Gaussian noise centered at noisy speech, and subsequently learn a parameterized model to reverse this process, conditionally on noisy speech. Unlike supervised methods, generative-based SE approaches usually rely solely on an unsupervised loss, which may result in less efficient incorporation of conditioned noisy speech. To address this issue, we propose augmenting the original diffusion training objective with a mean squared error (MSE) loss, measuring the discrepancy between estimated enhanced speech and ground-truth clean speech at each reverse process iteration. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methodology.

Supervised learning is often affected by a covariate shift in which the marginal distributions of instances (covariates x) of training and testing samples p_tr(x) and p_te(x) are different but the label conditionals coincide. Existing approaches address such covariate shift by either using the ratio p_te(x)/p_tr(x) to weight training samples (reweighted methods) or using the ratio p_tr(x)/p_te(x) to weight testing samples (robust methods). However, the performance of such approaches can be poor under support mismatch or when the above ratios take large values. We propose a minimax risk classification (MRC) approach for covariate shift adaptation that avoids such limitations by weighting both training and testing samples. In addition, we develop effective techniques that obtain both sets of weights and generalize the conventional kernel mean matching method. We provide novel generalization bounds for our method that show a significant increase in the effective sample size compared with reweighted methods. The proposed method also achieves enhanced classification performance in both synthetic and empirical experiments.

In modern recommendation systems, the standard pipeline involves training machine learning models on historical data to predict user behaviors and improve recommendations continuously. However, these data training loops can introduce interference in A/B tests, where data generated by control and treatment algorithms, potentially with different distributions, are combined. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel approach called weighted training. This approach entails training a model to predict the probability of each data point appearing in either the treatment or control data and subsequently applying weighted losses during model training. We demonstrate that this approach achieves the least variance among all estimators that do not cause shifts in the training distributions. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate the lower bias and variance of our approach compared to other methods.

Obesity, the leading cause of many non-communicable diseases, occurs mainly for eating more than our body requirements and lack of proper activity. So, being healthy requires heathy diet plans, especially for patients with comorbidities. But it is difficult to figure out the exact quantity of each nutrient because nutrients requirement varies based on physical and disease conditions. In our study we proposed a novel machine learning based system to predict the amount of nutrients one individual requires for being healthy. We applied different machine learning algorithms: linear regression, support vector machine (SVM), decision tree, random forest, XGBoost, LightGBM on fluid and 3 other major micronutrients: carbohydrate, protein, fat consumption prediction. We achieved high accuracy with low root mean square error (RMSE) by using linear regression in fluid prediction, random forest in carbohydrate prediction and LightGBM in protein and fat prediction. We believe our diet recommender system, OBESEYE, is the only of its kind which recommends diet with the consideration of comorbidities and physical conditions and promote encouragement to get rid of obesity.

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost estimates, and revenue predictions all benefit from being able to quantify the range of possible values accurately. As such, many models have been developed for this problem over many years of research in statistics, machine learning, and related fields. Rather than proposing yet another (new) algorithm for quantile regression we adopt a meta viewpoint: we investigate methods for aggregating any number of conditional quantile models, in order to improve accuracy and robustness. We consider weighted ensembles where weights may vary over not only individual models, but also over quantile levels, and feature values. All of the models we consider in this paper can be fit using modern deep learning toolkits, and hence are widely accessible (from an implementation point of view) and scalable. To improve the accuracy of the predicted quantiles (or equivalently, prediction intervals), we develop tools for ensuring that quantiles remain monotonically ordered, and apply conformal calibration methods. These can be used without any modification of the original library of base models. We also review some basic theory surrounding quantile aggregation and related scoring rules, and contribute a few new results to this literature (for example, the fact that post sorting or post isotonic regression can only improve the weighted interval score). Finally, we provide an extensive suite of empirical comparisons across 34 data sets from two different benchmark repositories.

Air pollution remains a leading global health risk, exacerbated by rapid industrialization and urbanization, contributing significantly to morbidity and mortality rates. In this paper, we introduce AirCast, a novel multi-variable air pollution forecasting model, by combining weather and air quality variables. AirCast employs a multi-task head architecture that simultaneously forecasts atmospheric conditions and pollutant concentrations, improving its understanding of how weather patterns affect air quality. Predicting extreme pollution events is challenging due to their rare occurrence in historic data, resulting in a heavy-tailed distribution of pollution levels. To address this, we propose a novel Frequency-weighted Mean Absolute Error (fMAE) loss, adapted from the class-balanced loss for regression tasks. Informed from domain knowledge, we investigate the selection of key variables known to influence pollution levels. Additionally, we align existing weather and chemical datasets across spatial and temporal dimensions. AirCast's integrated approach, combining multi-task learning, frequency weighted loss and domain informed variable selection, enables more accurate pollution forecasts. Our source code and models are made public here (https://github.com/vishalned/AirCast.git)

Recently, deep learning-based algorithms are widely adopted due to the advantage of being able to establish anomaly detection models without or with minimal domain knowledge of the task. Instead, to train the artificial neural network more stable, it should be better to define the appropriate neural network structure or the loss function. For the training anomaly detection model, the mean squared error (MSE) function is adopted widely. On the other hand, the novel loss function, logarithmic mean squared error (LMSE), is proposed in this paper to train the neural network more stable. This study covers a variety of comparisons from mathematical comparisons, visualization in the differential domain for backpropagation, loss convergence in the training process, and anomaly detection performance. In an overall view, LMSE is superior to the existing MSE function in terms of strongness of loss convergence, anomaly detection performance. The LMSE function is expected to be applicable for training not only the anomaly detection model but also the general generative neural network.

Recent advancements in data-driven weather forecasting models have delivered deterministic models that outperform the leading operational forecast systems based on traditional, physics-based models. However, these data-driven models are typically trained with a mean squared error loss function, which causes smoothing of fine scales through a "double penalty" effect. We develop a simple, parameter-free modification to this loss function that avoids this problem by separating the loss attributable to decorrelation from the loss attributable to spectral amplitude errors. Fine-tuning the GraphCast model with this new loss function results in sharp deterministic weather forecasts, an increase of the model's effective resolution from 1,250km to 160km, improvements to ensemble spread, and improvements to predictions of tropical cyclone strength and surface wind extremes.

Our motivation is to shed light the performance of the widely popular "R-Learner." Like many other methods for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs), R-Learning can be expressed as a weighted pseudo-outcome regression (POR). Previous comparisons of POR techniques have paid careful attention to the choice of pseudo-outcome transformation. However, we argue that the dominant driver of performance is actually the choice of weights. Specifically, we argue that R-Learning implicitly performs an inverse-variance weighted form of POR. These weights stabilize the regression and allow for convenient simplifications of bias terms.

Proximal causal learning is a promising framework for identifying the causal effect under the existence of unmeasured confounders. Within this framework, the doubly robust (DR) estimator was derived and has shown its effectiveness in estimation, especially when the model assumption is violated. However, the current form of the DR estimator is restricted to binary treatments, while the treatment can be continuous in many real-world applications. The primary obstacle to continuous treatments resides in the delta function present in the original DR estimator, making it infeasible in causal effect estimation and introducing a heavy computational burden in nuisance function estimation. To address these challenges, we propose a kernel-based DR estimator that can well handle continuous treatments. Equipped with its smoothness, we show that its oracle form is a consistent approximation of the influence function. Further, we propose a new approach to efficiently solve the nuisance functions. We then provide a comprehensive convergence analysis in terms of the mean square error. We demonstrate the utility of our estimator on synthetic datasets and real-world applications.

We study the problem of learning mixtures of Gaussians with censored data. Statistical learning with censored data is a classical problem, with numerous practical applications, however, finite-sample guarantees for even simple latent variable models such as Gaussian mixtures are missing. Formally, we are given censored data from a mixture of univariate Gaussians $sum_{i=1}^k w_i N(mu_i,sigma^2), i.e. the sample is observed only if it lies inside a set S. The goal is to learn the weights w_i and the means \mu_i. We propose an algorithm that takes only 1{\varepsilon^{O(k)}} samples to estimate the weights w_i and the means \mu_i within \varepsilon$ error.

This research enhances linear regression models by integrating a Kalman filter and analysing curve areas to minimize loss. The goal is to develop an optimal linear regression equation using stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for weight updating. Our approach involves a stepwise process, starting with user-defined parameters. The linear regression model is trained using SGD, tracking weights and loss separately and zipping them finally. A Kalman filter is then trained based on weight and loss arrays to predict the next consolidated weights. Predictions result from multiplying input averages with weights, evaluated for loss to form a weight-versus-loss curve. The curve's equation is derived using the two-point formula, and area under the curve is calculated via integration. The linear regression equation with minimum area becomes the optimal curve for prediction. Benefits include avoiding constant weight updates via gradient descent and working with partial datasets, unlike methods needing the entire set. However, computational complexity should be considered. The Kalman filter's accuracy might diminish beyond a certain prediction range.

We study the problem of online generalized linear regression in the stochastic setting, where the label is generated from a generalized linear model with possibly unbounded additive noise. We provide a sharp analysis of the classical follow-the-regularized-leader (FTRL) algorithm to cope with the label noise. More specifically, for sigma-sub-Gaussian label noise, our analysis provides a regret upper bound of O(sigma^2 d log T) + o(log T), where d is the dimension of the input vector, T is the total number of rounds. We also prove a Omega(sigma^2dlog(T/d)) lower bound for stochastic online linear regression, which indicates that our upper bound is nearly optimal. In addition, we extend our analysis to a more refined Bernstein noise condition. As an application, we study generalized linear bandits with heteroscedastic noise and propose an algorithm based on FTRL to achieve the first variance-aware regret bound.

Federated learning (FL) leverages client-server communications to train global models on decentralized data. However, communication noise or errors can impair model accuracy. To address this problem, we propose a novel FL algorithm that enhances robustness against communication noise while also reducing communication load. We derive the proposed algorithm through solving the weighted least-squares (WLS) regression problem as an illustrative example. We first frame WLS regression as a distributed convex optimization problem over a federated network employing random scheduling for improved communication efficiency. We then apply the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) to iteratively solve this problem. To counteract the detrimental effects of cumulative communication noise, we introduce a key modification by eliminating the dual variable and implementing a new local model update at each participating client. This subtle yet effective change results in using a single noisy global model update at each client instead of two, improving robustness against additive communication noise. Furthermore, we incorporate another modification enabling clients to continue local updates even when not selected by the server, leading to substantial performance improvements. Our theoretical analysis confirms the convergence of our algorithm in both mean and the mean-square senses, even when the server communicates with a random subset of clients over noisy links at each iteration. Numerical results validate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm and corroborate our theoretical findings.

In observational studies, balancing covariates in different treatment groups is essential to estimate treatment effects. One of the most commonly used methods for such purposes is weighting. The performance of this class of methods usually depends on strong regularity conditions for the underlying model, which might not hold in practice. In this paper, we investigate weighting methods from a functional estimation perspective and argue that the weights needed for covariate balancing could differ from those needed for treatment effects estimation under low regularity conditions. Motivated by this observation, we introduce a new framework of weighting that directly targets the treatment effects estimation. Unlike existing methods, the resulting estimator for a treatment effect under this new framework is a simple kernel-based U-statistic after applying a data-driven transformation to the observed covariates. We characterize the theoretical properties of the new estimators of treatment effects under a nonparametric setting and show that they are able to work robustly under low regularity conditions. The new framework is also applied to several numerical examples to demonstrate its practical merits.

We consider the problem of estimating (diagonally dominant) M-matrices as precision matrices in Gaussian graphical models. These models exhibit intriguing properties, such as the existence of the maximum likelihood estimator with merely two observations for M-matrices lauritzen2019maximum,slawski2015estimation and even one observation for diagonally dominant M-matrices truell2021maximum. We propose an adaptive multiple-stage estimation method that refines the estimate by solving a weighted ell_1-regularized problem at each stage. Furthermore, we develop a unified framework based on the gradient projection method to solve the regularized problem, incorporating distinct projections to handle the constraints of M-matrices and diagonally dominant M-matrices. A theoretical analysis of the estimation error is provided. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in precision matrix estimation and graph edge identification, as evidenced by synthetic and financial time-series data sets.

This paper investigates the problem of generalized linear bandits with heavy-tailed rewards, whose (1+epsilon)-th moment is bounded for some epsilonin (0,1]. Although there exist methods for generalized linear bandits, most of them focus on bounded or sub-Gaussian rewards and are not well-suited for many real-world scenarios, such as financial markets and web-advertising. To address this issue, we propose two novel algorithms based on truncation and mean of medians. These algorithms achieve an almost optimal regret bound of O(dT^{1{1+epsilon}}), where d is the dimension of contextual information and T is the time horizon. Our truncation-based algorithm supports online learning, distinguishing it from existing truncation-based approaches. Additionally, our mean-of-medians-based algorithm requires only O(log T) rewards and one estimator per epoch, making it more practical. Moreover, our algorithms improve the regret bounds by a logarithmic factor compared to existing algorithms when epsilon=1. Numerical experimental results confirm the merits of our algorithms.

In natural language processing, a recently popular line of work explores how to best report the experimental results of neural networks. One exemplar publication, titled "Show Your Work: Improved Reporting of Experimental Results," advocates for reporting the expected validation effectiveness of the best-tuned model, with respect to the computational budget. In the present work, we critically examine this paper. As far as statistical generalizability is concerned, we find unspoken pitfalls and caveats with this approach. We analytically show that their estimator is biased and uses error-prone assumptions. We find that the estimator favors negative errors and yields poor bootstrapped confidence intervals. We derive an unbiased alternative and bolster our claims with empirical evidence from statistical simulation. Our codebase is at http://github.com/castorini/meanmax.

This article considers the popular MCMC method of unadjusted Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) and provides a non-asymptotic analysis of its sampling error in 2-Wasserstein distance. The proof is based on a refinement of mean-square analysis in Li et al. (2019), and this refined framework automates the analysis of a large class of sampling algorithms based on discretizations of contractive SDEs. Using this framework, we establish an O(d/epsilon) mixing time bound for LMC, without warm start, under the common log-smooth and log-strongly-convex conditions, plus a growth condition on the 3rd-order derivative of the potential of target measures. This bound improves the best previously known O(d/epsilon) result and is optimal (in terms of order) in both dimension d and accuracy tolerance epsilon for target measures satisfying the aforementioned assumptions. Our theoretical analysis is further validated by numerical experiments.

Models trained on different datasets can be merged by a weighted-averaging of their parameters, but why does it work and when can it fail? Here, we connect the inaccuracy of weighted-averaging to mismatches in the gradients and propose a new uncertainty-based scheme to improve the performance by reducing the mismatch. The connection also reveals implicit assumptions in other schemes such as averaging, task arithmetic, and Fisher-weighted averaging. Our new method gives consistent improvements for large language models and vision transformers, both in terms of performance and robustness to hyperparameters.

We estimate ([M/H], [alpha/M]) for 48 million giants and dwarfs in low-dust extinction regions from the Gaia DR3 XP spectra by using tree-based machine-learning models trained on APOGEE DR17 and metal-poor star sample from Li et al. The root mean square error of our estimation is 0.0890 dex for [M/H] and 0.0436 dex for [alpha/M], when we evaluate our models on the test data that are not used in training the models. Because the training data is dominated by giants, our estimation is most reliable for giants. The high-[alpha/M] stars and low-[alpha/M] stars selected by our ([M/H], [alpha/M]) show different kinematical properties for giants and low-temperature dwarfs. We further investigate how our machine-learning models extract information on ([M/H], [alpha/M]). Intriguingly, we find that our models seem to extract information on [alpha/M] from Na D lines (589 nm) and Mg I line (516 nm). This result is understandable given the observed correlation between Na and Mg abundances in the literature. The catalog of ([M/H], [alpha/M]) as well as their associated uncertainties are publicly available online.

Weighting methods in causal inference have been widely used to achieve a desirable level of covariate balancing. However, the existing weighting methods have desirable theoretical properties only when a certain model, either the propensity score or outcome regression model, is correctly specified. In addition, the corresponding estimators do not behave well for finite samples due to large variance even when the model is correctly specified. In this paper, we consider to use the integral probability metric (IPM), which is a metric between two probability measures, for covariate balancing. Optimal weights are determined so that weighted empirical distributions for the treated and control groups have the smallest IPM value for a given set of discriminators. We prove that the corresponding estimator can be consistent without correctly specifying any model (neither the propensity score nor the outcome regression model). In addition, we empirically show that our proposed method outperforms existing weighting methods with large margins for finite samples.

The presence of distribution shifts poses a significant challenge for deploying modern machine learning models in real-world applications. This work focuses on the target shift problem in a regression setting (Zhang et al., 2013; Nguyen et al., 2016). More specifically, the target variable y (also known as the response variable), which is continuous, has different marginal distributions in the training source and testing domain, while the conditional distribution of features x given y remains the same. While most literature focuses on classification tasks with finite target space, the regression problem has an infinite dimensional target space, which makes many of the existing methods inapplicable. In this work, we show that the continuous target shift problem can be addressed by estimating the importance weight function from an ill-posed integral equation. We propose a nonparametric regularized approach named ReTaSA to solve the ill-posed integral equation and provide theoretical justification for the estimated importance weight function. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been demonstrated with extensive numerical studies on synthetic and real-world datasets.

In this paper, we introduce a novel theoretical framework for multi-task regression, applying random matrix theory to provide precise performance estimations, under high-dimensional, non-Gaussian data distributions. We formulate a multi-task optimization problem as a regularization technique to enable single-task models to leverage multi-task learning information. We derive a closed-form solution for multi-task optimization in the context of linear models. Our analysis provides valuable insights by linking the multi-task learning performance to various model statistics such as raw data covariances, signal-generating hyperplanes, noise levels, as well as the size and number of datasets. We finally propose a consistent estimation of training and testing errors, thereby offering a robust foundation for hyperparameter optimization in multi-task regression scenarios. Experimental validations on both synthetic and real-world datasets in regression and multivariate time series forecasting demonstrate improvements on univariate models, incorporating our method into the training loss and thus leveraging multivariate information.

Autoencoders were widely used in many machine learning tasks thanks to their strong learning ability which has drawn great interest among researchers in the field of outlier detection. However, conventional autoencoder-based methods lacked considerations in two aspects. This limited their performance in outlier detection. First, the mean squared error used in conventional autoencoders ignored the judgment uncertainty of the autoencoder, which limited their representation ability. Second, autoencoders suffered from the abnormal reconstruction problem: some outliers can be unexpectedly reconstructed well, making them difficult to identify from the inliers. To mitigate the aforementioned issues, two novel methods were proposed in this paper. First, a novel loss function named Probabilistic Reconstruction Error (PRE) was constructed to factor in both reconstruction bias and judgment uncertainty. To further control the trade-off of these two factors, two weights were introduced in PRE producing Adjustable Probabilistic Reconstruction Error (APRE), which benefited the outlier detection in different applications. Second, a conceptually new outlier scoring method based on mean-shift (MSS) was proposed to reduce the false inliers caused by the autoencoder. Experiments on 32 real-world outlier detection datasets proved the effectiveness of the proposed methods. The combination of the proposed methods achieved 41% of the relative performance improvement compared to the best baseline. The MSS improved the performance of multiple autoencoder-based outlier detectors by an average of 20%. The proposed two methods have the potential to advance autoencoder's development in outlier detection. The code is available on www.OutlierNet.com for reproducibility.

Mirror descent value iteration (MDVI), an abstraction of Kullback-Leibler (KL) and entropy-regularized reinforcement learning (RL), has served as the basis for recent high-performing practical RL algorithms. However, despite the use of function approximation in practice, the theoretical understanding of MDVI has been limited to tabular Markov decision processes (MDPs). We study MDVI with linear function approximation through its sample complexity required to identify an varepsilon-optimal policy with probability 1-delta under the settings of an infinite-horizon linear MDP, generative model, and G-optimal design. We demonstrate that least-squares regression weighted by the variance of an estimated optimal value function of the next state is crucial to achieving minimax optimality. Based on this observation, we present Variance-Weighted Least-Squares MDVI (VWLS-MDVI), the first theoretical algorithm that achieves nearly minimax optimal sample complexity for infinite-horizon linear MDPs. Furthermore, we propose a practical VWLS algorithm for value-based deep RL, Deep Variance Weighting (DVW). Our experiments demonstrate that DVW improves the performance of popular value-based deep RL algorithms on a set of MinAtar benchmarks.

We propose a penalized nonparametric approach to estimating the quantile regression process (QRP) in a nonseparable model using rectifier quadratic unit (ReQU) activated deep neural networks and introduce a novel penalty function to enforce non-crossing of quantile regression curves. We establish the non-asymptotic excess risk bounds for the estimated QRP and derive the mean integrated squared error for the estimated QRP under mild smoothness and regularity conditions. To establish these non-asymptotic risk and estimation error bounds, we also develop a new error bound for approximating C^s smooth functions with s >0 and their derivatives using ReQU activated neural networks. This is a new approximation result for ReQU networks and is of independent interest and may be useful in other problems. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed method is competitive with or outperforms two existing methods, including methods using reproducing kernels and random forests, for nonparametric quantile regression.

This paper studies the error metric selection for long-term memory learning in sequence modelling. We examine the bias towards short-term memory in commonly used errors, including mean absolute/squared error. Our findings show that all temporally positive-weighted errors are biased towards short-term memory in learning linear functionals. To reduce this bias and improve long-term memory learning, we propose the use of a temporally rescaled error. In addition to reducing the bias towards short-term memory, this approach can also alleviate the vanishing gradient issue. We conduct numerical experiments on different long-memory tasks and sequence models to validate our claims. Numerical results confirm the importance of appropriate temporally rescaled error for effective long-term memory learning. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that quantitatively analyzes different errors' memory bias towards short-term memory in sequence modelling.

Recently, Ainsworth et al. showed that using weight matching (WM) to minimize the L_2 distance in a permutation search of model parameters effectively identifies permutations that satisfy linear mode connectivity (LMC), in which the loss along a linear path between two independently trained models with different seeds remains nearly constant. This paper provides a theoretical analysis of LMC using WM, which is crucial for understanding stochastic gradient descent's effectiveness and its application in areas like model merging. We first experimentally and theoretically show that permutations found by WM do not significantly reduce the L_2 distance between two models and the occurrence of LMC is not merely due to distance reduction by WM in itself. We then provide theoretical insights showing that permutations can change the directions of the singular vectors, but not the singular values, of the weight matrices in each layer. This finding shows that permutations found by WM mainly align the directions of singular vectors associated with large singular values across models. This alignment brings the singular vectors with large singular values, which determine the model functionality, closer between pre-merged and post-merged models, so that the post-merged model retains functionality similar to the pre-merged models, making it easy to satisfy LMC. Finally, we analyze the difference between WM and straight-through estimator (STE), a dataset-dependent permutation search method, and show that WM outperforms STE, especially when merging three or more models.

Exponential moving average (EMA) has recently gained significant popularity in training modern deep learning models, especially diffusion-based generative models. However, there have been few theoretical results explaining the effectiveness of EMA. In this paper, to better understand EMA, we establish the risk bound of online SGD with EMA for high-dimensional linear regression, one of the simplest overparameterized learning tasks that shares similarities with neural networks. Our results indicate that (i) the variance error of SGD with EMA is always smaller than that of SGD without averaging, and (ii) unlike SGD with iterate averaging from the beginning, the bias error of SGD with EMA decays exponentially in every eigen-subspace of the data covariance matrix. Additionally, we develop proof techniques applicable to the analysis of a broad class of averaging schemes.

The commitment to single-precision floating-point arithmetic is widespread in the deep learning community. To evaluate whether this commitment is justified, the influence of computing precision (single and double precision) on the optimization performance of the Conjugate Gradient (CG) method (a second-order optimization algorithm) and RMSprop (a first-order algorithm) has been investigated. Tests of neural networks with one to five fully connected hidden layers and moderate or strong nonlinearity with up to 4 million network parameters have been optimized for Mean Square Error (MSE). The training tasks have been set up so that their MSE minimum was known to be zero. Computing experiments have disclosed that single-precision can keep up (with superlinear convergence) with double-precision as long as line search finds an improvement. First-order methods such as RMSprop do not benefit from double precision. However, for moderately nonlinear tasks, CG is clearly superior. For strongly nonlinear tasks, both algorithm classes find only solutions fairly poor in terms of mean square error as related to the output variance. CG with double floating-point precision is superior whenever the solutions have the potential to be useful for the application goal.

In this manuscript we consider the problem of generalized linear estimation on Gaussian mixture data with labels given by a single-index model. Our first result is a sharp asymptotic expression for the test and training errors in the high-dimensional regime. Motivated by the recent stream of results on the Gaussian universality of the test and training errors in generalized linear estimation, we ask ourselves the question: "when is a single Gaussian enough to characterize the error?". Our formula allow us to give sharp answers to this question, both in the positive and negative directions. More precisely, we show that the sufficient conditions for Gaussian universality (or lack of thereof) crucially depend on the alignment between the target weights and the means and covariances of the mixture clusters, which we precisely quantify. In the particular case of least-squares interpolation, we prove a strong universality property of the training error, and show it follows a simple, closed-form expression. Finally, we apply our results to real datasets, clarifying some recent discussion in the literature about Gaussian universality of the errors in this context.

Motion artefacts in magnetic resonance brain images can have a strong impact on diagnostic confidence. The assessment of MR image quality is fundamental before proceeding with the clinical diagnosis. Motion artefacts can alter the delineation of structures such as the brain, lesions or tumours and may require a repeat scan. Otherwise, an inaccurate (e.g. correct pathology but wrong severity) or incorrect diagnosis (e.g. wrong pathology) may occur. "Image quality assessment" as a fast, automated step right after scanning can assist in deciding if the acquired images are diagnostically sufficient. An automated image quality assessment based on the structural similarity index (SSIM) regression through a residual neural network is proposed in this work. Additionally, a classification into different groups - by subdividing with SSIM ranges - is evaluated. Importantly, this method predicts SSIM values of an input image in the absence of a reference ground truth image. The networks were able to detect motion artefacts, and the best performance for the regression and classification task has always been achieved with ResNet-18 with contrast augmentation. The mean and standard deviation of residuals' distribution were mu=-0.0009 and sigma=0.0139, respectively. Whilst for the classification task in 3, 5 and 10 classes, the best accuracies were 97, 95 and 89\%, respectively. The results show that the proposed method could be a tool for supporting neuro-radiologists and radiographers in evaluating image quality quickly.

Air pollution constitutes a global problem of paramount importance that affects not only human health, but also the environment. The existence of spatial and temporal data regarding the concentrations of pollutants is crucial for performing air pollution studies and monitor emissions. However, although observation data presents great temporal coverage, the number of stations is very limited and they are usually built in more populated areas. The main objective of this work is to create models capable of inferring pollutant concentrations in locations where no observation data exists. A machine learning model, more specifically the random forest model, was developed for predicting concentrations in the Iberian Peninsula in 2019 for five selected pollutants: NO_2, O_3 SO_2, PM10, and PM2.5. Model features include satellite measurements, meteorological variables, land use classification, temporal variables (month, day of year), and spatial variables (latitude, longitude, altitude). The models were evaluated using various methods, including station 10-fold cross-validation, in which in each fold observations from 10\% of the stations are used as testing data and the rest as training data. The R^2, RMSE and mean bias were determined for each model. The NO_2 and O_3 models presented good values of R^2, 0.5524 and 0.7462, respectively. However, the SO_2, PM10, and PM2.5 models performed very poorly in this regard, with R^2 values of -0.0231, 0.3722, and 0.3303, respectively. All models slightly overestimated the ground concentrations, except the O_3 model. All models presented acceptable cross-validation RMSE, except the O_3 and PM10 models where the mean value was a little higher (12.5934 mu g/m^3 and 10.4737 mu g/m^3, respectively).

For learning with noisy labels, the transition matrix, which explicitly models the relation between noisy label distribution and clean label distribution, has been utilized to achieve the statistical consistency of either the classifier or the risk. Previous researches have focused more on how to estimate this transition matrix well, rather than how to utilize it. We propose good utilization of the transition matrix is crucial and suggest a new utilization method based on resampling, coined RENT. Specifically, we first demonstrate current utilizations can have potential limitations for implementation. As an extension to Reweighting, we suggest the Dirichlet distribution-based per-sample Weight Sampling (DWS) framework, and compare reweighting and resampling under DWS framework. With the analyses from DWS, we propose RENT, a REsampling method with Noise Transition matrix. Empirically, RENT consistently outperforms existing transition matrix utilization methods, which includes reweighting, on various benchmark datasets. Our code is available at https://github.com/BaeHeeSun/RENT.

When facing data with imbalanced classes or groups, practitioners follow an intriguing strategy to achieve best results. They throw away examples until the classes or groups are balanced in size, and then perform empirical risk minimization on the reduced training set. This opposes common wisdom in learning theory, where the expected error is supposed to decrease as the dataset grows in size. In this work, we leverage extreme value theory to address this apparent contradiction. Our results show that the tails of the data distribution play an important role in determining the worst-group-accuracy of linear classifiers. When learning on data with heavy tails, throwing away data restores the geometric symmetry of the resulting classifier, and therefore improves its worst-group generalization.

Metric space magnitude, an active field of research in algebraic topology, is a scalar quantity that summarizes the effective number of distinct points that live in a general metric space. The {\em weighting vector} is a closely-related concept that captures, in a nontrivial way, much of the underlying geometry of the original metric space. Recent work has demonstrated that when the metric space is Euclidean, the weighting vector serves as an effective tool for boundary detection. We recast this result and show the weighting vector may be viewed as a solution to a kernelized SVM. As one consequence, we apply this new insight to the task of outlier detection, and we demonstrate performance that is competitive or exceeds performance of state-of-the-art techniques on benchmark data sets. Under mild assumptions, we show the weighting vector, which has computational cost of matrix inversion, can be efficiently approximated in linear time. We show how nearest neighbor methods can approximate solutions to the minimization problems defined by SVMs.

Weight oscillation is an undesirable side effect of quantization-aware training, in which quantized weights frequently jump between two quantized levels, resulting in training instability and a sub-optimal final model. We discover that the learnable scaling factor, a widely-used de facto setting in quantization aggravates weight oscillation. In this study, we investigate the connection between the learnable scaling factor and quantized weight oscillation and use ViT as a case driver to illustrate the findings and remedies. In addition, we also found that the interdependence between quantized weights in query and key of a self-attention layer makes ViT vulnerable to oscillation. We, therefore, propose three techniques accordingly: statistical weight quantization (rm StatsQ) to improve quantization robustness compared to the prevalent learnable-scale-based method; confidence-guided annealing (rm CGA) that freezes the weights with high confidence and calms the oscillating weights; and query-key reparameterization (rm QKR) to resolve the query-key intertwined oscillation and mitigate the resulting gradient misestimation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that these proposed techniques successfully abate weight oscillation and consistently achieve substantial accuracy improvement on ImageNet. Specifically, our 2-bit DeiT-T/DeiT-S algorithms outperform the previous state-of-the-art by 9.8% and 7.7%, respectively. Code and models are available at: https://github.com/nbasyl/OFQ.

We consider the problem of linear estimation, and establish an extension of the Gauss-Markov theorem, in which the bias operator is allowed to be non-zero but bounded with respect to a matrix norm of Schatten type. We derive simple and explicit formulas for the optimal estimator in the cases of Nuclear and Spectral norms (with the Frobenius case recovering ridge regression). Additionally, we analytically derive the generalization error in multiple random matrix ensembles, and compare with Ridge regression. Finally, we conduct an extensive simulation study, in which we show that the cross-validated Nuclear and Spectral regressors can outperform Ridge in several circumstances.

Despite the popularity of guitar effects, there is very little existing research on classification and parameter estimation of specific plugins or effect units from guitar recordings. In this paper, convolutional neural networks were used for classification and parameter estimation for 13 overdrive, distortion and fuzz guitar effects. A novel dataset of processed electric guitar samples was assembled, with four sub-datasets consisting of monophonic or polyphonic samples and discrete or continuous settings values, for a total of about 250 hours of processed samples. Results were compared for networks trained and tested on the same or on a different sub-dataset. We found that discrete datasets could lead to equally high performance as continuous ones, whilst being easier to design, analyse and modify. Classification accuracy was above 80\%, with confusion matrices reflecting similarities in the effects timbre and circuits design. With parameter values between 0.0 and 1.0, the mean absolute error is in most cases below 0.05, while the root mean square error is below 0.1 in all cases but one.

Long-tailed classification is challenging due to its heavy imbalance in class probabilities. While existing methods often focus on overall accuracy or accuracy for tail classes, they overlook a critical aspect: certain types of errors can carry greater risks than others in real-world long-tailed problems. For example, misclassifying patients (a tail class) as healthy individuals (a head class) entails far more serious consequences than the reverse scenario. To address this critical issue, we introduce Making Reliable and Flexible Decisions in Long-tailed Classification (RF-DLC), a novel framework aimed at reliable predictions in long-tailed problems. Leveraging Bayesian Decision Theory, we introduce an integrated gain to seamlessly combine long-tailed data distributions and the decision-making procedure. We further propose an efficient variational optimization strategy for the decision risk objective. Our method adapts readily to diverse utility matrices, which can be designed for specific tasks, ensuring its flexibility for different problem settings. In empirical evaluation, we design a new metric, False Head Rate, to quantify tail-sensitivity risk, along with comprehensive experiments on multiple real-world tasks, including large-scale image classification and uncertainty quantification, to demonstrate the reliability and flexibility of our method.

Deep neural networks are typically trained by optimizing a loss function with an SGD variant, in conjunction with a decaying learning rate, until convergence. We show that simple averaging of multiple points along the trajectory of SGD, with a cyclical or constant learning rate, leads to better generalization than conventional training. We also show that this Stochastic Weight Averaging (SWA) procedure finds much flatter solutions than SGD, and approximates the recent Fast Geometric Ensembling (FGE) approach with a single model. Using SWA we achieve notable improvement in test accuracy over conventional SGD training on a range of state-of-the-art residual networks, PyramidNets, DenseNets, and Shake-Shake networks on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and ImageNet. In short, SWA is extremely easy to implement, improves generalization, and has almost no computational overhead.

We present Simplex Random Features (SimRFs), a new random feature (RF) mechanism for unbiased approximation of the softmax and Gaussian kernels by geometrical correlation of random projection vectors. We prove that SimRFs provide the smallest possible mean square error (MSE) on unbiased estimates of these kernels among the class of weight-independent geometrically-coupled positive random feature (PRF) mechanisms, substantially outperforming the previously most accurate Orthogonal Random Features at no observable extra cost. We present a more computationally expensive SimRFs+ variant, which we prove is asymptotically optimal in the broader family of weight-dependent geometrical coupling schemes (which permit correlations between random vector directions and norms). In extensive empirical studies, we show consistent gains provided by SimRFs in settings including pointwise kernel estimation, nonparametric classification and scalable Transformers.

This article investigates signal estimation in wireless transmission (i.e., receive beamforming) from the perspective of statistical machine learning, where the transmit signals may be from an integrated sensing and communication system; that is, 1) signals may be not only discrete constellation points but also arbitrary complex values; 2) signals may be spatially correlated. Particular attention is paid to handling various uncertainties such as the uncertainty of the transmit signal covariance, the uncertainty of the channel matrix, the uncertainty of the channel noise covariance, the existence of channel impulse noises, and the limited sample size of pilots. To proceed, a distributionally robust machine learning framework that is insensitive to the above uncertainties is proposed, which reveals that channel estimation is not a necessary operation. For optimal linear estimation, the proposed framework includes several existing beamformers as special cases such as diagonal loading and eigenvalue thresholding. For optimal nonlinear estimation, estimators are limited in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces and neural network function spaces, and corresponding uncertainty-aware solutions (e.g., kernelized diagonal loading) are derived. In addition, we prove that the ridge and kernel ridge regression methods in machine learning are distributionally robust against diagonal perturbation in feature covariance.

Most bandit algorithms assume that the reward variances or their upper bounds are known, and that they are the same for all arms. This naturally leads to suboptimal performance and higher regret due to variance overestimation. On the other hand, underestimated reward variances may lead to linear regret due to committing early to a suboptimal arm. This motivated prior works on variance-adaptive frequentist algorithms, which have strong instance-dependent regret bounds but cannot incorporate prior knowledge on reward variances. We lay foundations for the Bayesian setting, which incorporates prior knowledge. This results in lower regret in practice, due to using the prior in the algorithm design, and also improved regret guarantees. Specifically, we study Gaussian bandits with {unknown heterogeneous reward variances}, and develop a Thompson sampling algorithm with prior-dependent Bayes regret bounds. We achieve lower regret with lower reward variances and more informative priors on them, which is precisely why we pay only for what is uncertain. This is the first result of its kind. Finally, we corroborate our theory with extensive experiments, which show the superiority of our variance-adaptive Bayesian algorithm over prior frequentist approaches. We also show that our approach is robust to model misspecification and can be applied with estimated priors.

The sliced Wasserstein (SW) distances between two probability measures are defined as the expectation of the Wasserstein distance between two one-dimensional projections of the two measures. The randomness comes from a projecting direction that is used to project the two input measures to one dimension. Due to the intractability of the expectation, Monte Carlo integration is performed to estimate the value of the SW distance. Despite having various variants, there has been no prior work that improves the Monte Carlo estimation scheme for the SW distance in terms of controlling its variance. To bridge the literature on variance reduction and the literature on the SW distance, we propose computationally efficient control variates to reduce the variance of the empirical estimation of the SW distance. The key idea is to first find Gaussian approximations of projected one-dimensional measures, then we utilize the closed-form of the Wasserstein-2 distance between two Gaussian distributions to design the control variates. In particular, we propose using a lower bound and an upper bound of the Wasserstein-2 distance between two fitted Gaussians as two computationally efficient control variates. We empirically show that the proposed control variate estimators can help to reduce the variance considerably when comparing measures over images and point-clouds. Finally, we demonstrate the favorable performance of the proposed control variate estimators in gradient flows to interpolate between two point-clouds and in deep generative modeling on standard image datasets, such as CIFAR10 and CelebA.

We show via a combination of mathematical arguments and empirical evidence that data distributions sampled from diffusion models satisfy a Concentration of Measure Property saying that any Lipschitz 1-dimensional projection of a random vector is not too far from its mean with high probability. This implies that such models are quite restrictive and gives an explanation for a fact previously observed in the literature that conventional diffusion models cannot capture "heavy-tailed" data (i.e. data x for which the norm |x|_2 does not possess a sub-Gaussian tail) well. We then proceed to train a generalized linear model using stochastic gradient descent (SGD) on the diffusion-generated data for a multiclass classification task and observe empirically that a Gaussian universality result holds for the test error. In other words, the test error depends only on the first and second order statistics of the diffusion-generated data in the linear setting. Results of such forms are desirable because they allow one to assume the data itself is Gaussian for analyzing performance of the trained classifier. Finally, we note that current approaches to proving universality do not apply to this case as the covariance matrices of the data tend to have vanishing minimum singular values for the diffusion-generated data, while the current proofs assume that this is not the case (see Subsection 3.4 for more details). This leaves extending previous mathematical universality results as an intriguing open question.

A key challenge of modern machine learning systems is to achieve Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization -- generalizing to target data whose distribution differs from that of source data. Despite its significant importance, the fundamental question of ``what are the most effective algorithms for OOD generalization'' remains open even under the standard setting of covariate shift. This paper addresses this fundamental question by proving that, surprisingly, classical Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) purely using source data (without any modification) achieves the minimax optimality for covariate shift under the well-specified setting. That is, no algorithm performs better than MLE in this setting (up to a constant factor), justifying MLE is all you need. Our result holds for a very rich class of parametric models, and does not require any boundedness condition on the density ratio. We illustrate the wide applicability of our framework by instantiating it to three concrete examples -- linear regression, logistic regression, and phase retrieval. This paper further complement the study by proving that, under the misspecified setting, MLE is no longer the optimal choice, whereas Maximum Weighted Likelihood Estimator (MWLE) emerges as minimax optimal in certain scenarios.

We investigate imbalanced regression with tabular data that have an imbalance ratio larger than 1,000 ("highly imbalanced"). Accurately estimating the target values of rare instances is important in applications such as forecasting the intensity of rare harmful Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events. For regression, the MSE loss does not consider the correlation between predicted and actual values. Typical inverse importance functions allow only convex functions. Uniform sampling might yield mini-batches that do not have rare instances. We propose CISIR that incorporates correlation, Monotonically Decreasing Involution (MDI) importance, and stratified sampling. Based on five datasets, our experimental results indicate that CISIR can achieve lower error and higher correlation than some recent methods. Also, adding our correlation component to other recent methods can improve their performance. Lastly, MDI importance can outperform other importance functions. Our code can be found in https://github.com/Machine-Earning/CISIR.

With the increasing volume of high-frequency data in the information age, both challenges and opportunities arise in the prediction of stock volatility. On one hand, the outcome of prediction using tradition method combining stock technical and macroeconomic indicators still leaves room for improvement; on the other hand, macroeconomic indicators and peoples' search record on those search engines affecting their interested topics will intuitively have an impact on the stock volatility. For the convenience of assessment of the influence of these indicators, macroeconomic indicators and stock technical indicators are then grouped into objective factors, while Baidu search indices implying people's interested topics are defined as subjective factors. To align different frequency data, we introduce GARCH-MIDAS model. After mixing all the above data, we then feed them into Transformer model as part of the training data. Our experiments show that this model outperforms the baselines in terms of mean square error. The adaption of both types of data under Transformer model significantly reduces the mean square error from 1.00 to 0.86.

We derive a simple and model-independent formula for the change in the generalization gap due to a gradient descent update. We then compare the change in the test error for stochastic gradient descent to the change in test error from an equivalent number of gradient descent updates and show explicitly that stochastic gradient descent acts to regularize generalization error by decorrelating nearby updates. These calculations depends on the details of the model only through the mean and covariance of the gradient distribution, which may be readily measured for particular models of interest. We discuss further improvements to these calculations and comment on possible implications for stochastic optimization.

Heavy-tail phenomena in stochastic gradient descent (SGD) have been reported in several empirical studies. Experimental evidence in previous works suggests a strong interplay between the heaviness of the tails and generalization behavior of SGD. To address this empirical phenomena theoretically, several works have made strong topological and statistical assumptions to link the generalization error to heavy tails. Very recently, new generalization bounds have been proven, indicating a non-monotonic relationship between the generalization error and heavy tails, which is more pertinent to the reported empirical observations. While these bounds do not require additional topological assumptions given that SGD can be modeled using a heavy-tailed stochastic differential equation (SDE), they can only apply to simple quadratic problems. In this paper, we build on this line of research and develop generalization bounds for a more general class of objective functions, which includes non-convex functions as well. Our approach is based on developing Wasserstein stability bounds for heavy-tailed SDEs and their discretizations, which we then convert to generalization bounds. Our results do not require any nontrivial assumptions; yet, they shed more light to the empirical observations, thanks to the generality of the loss functions.

We study the cost of overfitting in noisy kernel ridge regression (KRR), which we define as the ratio between the test error of the interpolating ridgeless model and the test error of the optimally-tuned model. We take an "agnostic" view in the following sense: we consider the cost as a function of sample size for any target function, even if the sample size is not large enough for consistency or the target is outside the RKHS. We analyze the cost of overfitting under a Gaussian universality ansatz using recently derived (non-rigorous) risk estimates in terms of the task eigenstructure. Our analysis provides a more refined characterization of benign, tempered and catastrophic overfitting (cf. Mallinar et al. 2022).

We study the effect of mini-batching on the loss landscape of deep neural networks using spiked, field-dependent random matrix theory. We demonstrate that the magnitude of the extremal values of the batch Hessian are larger than those of the empirical Hessian. We also derive similar results for the Generalised Gauss-Newton matrix approximation of the Hessian. As a consequence of our theorems we derive an analytical expressions for the maximal learning rates as a function of batch size, informing practical training regimens for both stochastic gradient descent (linear scaling) and adaptive algorithms, such as Adam (square root scaling), for smooth, non-convex deep neural networks. Whilst the linear scaling for stochastic gradient descent has been derived under more restrictive conditions, which we generalise, the square root scaling rule for adaptive optimisers is, to our knowledge, completely novel. %For stochastic second-order methods and adaptive methods, we derive that the minimal damping coefficient is proportional to the ratio of the learning rate to batch size. We validate our claims on the VGG/WideResNet architectures on the CIFAR-100 and ImageNet datasets. Based on our investigations of the sub-sampled Hessian we develop a stochastic Lanczos quadrature based on the fly learning rate and momentum learner, which avoids the need for expensive multiple evaluations for these key hyper-parameters and shows good preliminary results on the Pre-Residual Architecure for CIFAR-100.

Motivated by the problem of fast processing of attention matrices, we study fast algorithms for computing matrix-vector products for asymmetric Gaussian Kernel matrices Kin R^{ntimes n}. K's columns are indexed by a set of n keys k_1,k_2ldots, k_nin R^d, rows by a set of n queries q_1,q_2,ldots,q_nin R^d , and its i,j entry is K_{ij} = e^{-|q_i-k_j|_2^2/2sigma^2} for some bandwidth parameter sigma>0. Given a vector xin R^n and error parameter epsilon>0, our task is to output a yin R^n such that |Kx-y|_2leq epsilon |x|_2 in time subquadratic in n and linear in d. Our algorithms rely on the following modelling assumption about the matrices K: the sum of the entries of K scales linearly in n, as opposed to worst case quadratic growth. We validate this assumption experimentally, for Gaussian kernel matrices encountered in various settings such as fast attention computation in LLMs. We obtain the first subquadratic-time algorithm that works under this assumption, for unrestricted vectors.

We propose a direct estimation method for R\'{e}nyi and f-divergence measures based on a new graph theoretical interpretation. Suppose that we are given two sample sets X and Y, respectively with N and M samples, where eta:=M/N is a constant value. Considering the k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) graph of Y in the joint data set (X,Y), we show that the average powered ratio of the number of X points to the number of Y points among all k-NN points is proportional to R\'{e}nyi divergence of X and Y densities. A similar method can also be used to estimate f-divergence measures. We derive bias and variance rates, and show that for the class of gamma-H\"{o}lder smooth functions, the estimator achieves the MSE rate of O(N^{-2gamma/(gamma+d)}). Furthermore, by using a weighted ensemble estimation technique, for density functions with continuous and bounded derivatives of up to the order d, and some extra conditions at the support set boundary, we derive an ensemble estimator that achieves the parametric MSE rate of O(1/N). Our estimators are more computationally tractable than other competing estimators, which makes them appealing in many practical applications.

Kernel methods are widely used in machine learning, especially for classification problems. However, the theoretical analysis of kernel classification is still limited. This paper investigates the statistical performances of kernel classifiers. With some mild assumptions on the conditional probability eta(x)=P(Y=1mid X=x), we derive an upper bound on the classification excess risk of a kernel classifier using recent advances in the theory of kernel regression. We also obtain a minimax lower bound for Sobolev spaces, which shows the optimality of the proposed classifier. Our theoretical results can be extended to the generalization error of overparameterized neural network classifiers. To make our theoretical results more applicable in realistic settings, we also propose a simple method to estimate the interpolation smoothness of 2eta(x)-1 and apply the method to real datasets.

Designing an optimum portfolio that allocates weights to its constituent stocks in a way that achieves the best trade-off between the return and the risk is a challenging research problem. The classical mean-variance theory of portfolio proposed by Markowitz is found to perform sub-optimally on the real-world stock market data since the error in estimation for the expected returns adversely affects the performance of the portfolio. This paper presents three approaches to portfolio design, viz, the minimum risk portfolio, the optimum risk portfolio, and the Eigen portfolio, for seven important sectors of the Indian stock market. The daily historical prices of the stocks are scraped from Yahoo Finance website from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020. Three portfolios are built for each of the seven sectors chosen for this study, and the portfolios are analyzed on the training data based on several metrics such as annualized return and risk, weights assigned to the constituent stocks, the correlation heatmaps, and the principal components of the Eigen portfolios. Finally, the optimum risk portfolios and the Eigen portfolios for all sectors are tested on their return over a period of a six-month period. The performances of the portfolios are compared and the portfolio yielding the higher return for each sector is identified.

The asymptotically precise estimation of the generalization of kernel methods has recently received attention due to the parallels between neural networks and their associated kernels. However, prior works derive such estimates for training by kernel ridge regression (KRR), whereas neural networks are typically trained with gradient descent (GD). In the present work, we consider the training of kernels with a family of spectral algorithms specified by profile h(lambda), and including KRR and GD as special cases. Then, we derive the generalization error as a functional of learning profile h(lambda) for two data models: high-dimensional Gaussian and low-dimensional translation-invariant model. Under power-law assumptions on the spectrum of the kernel and target, we use our framework to (i) give full loss asymptotics for both noisy and noiseless observations (ii) show that the loss localizes on certain spectral scales, giving a new perspective on the KRR saturation phenomenon (iii) conjecture, and demonstrate for the considered data models, the universality of the loss w.r.t. non-spectral details of the problem, but only in case of noisy observation.

We introduce a new class of algorithms, Stochastic Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM), for estimation and inference on (overidentified) moment restriction models. Our SGMM is a novel stochastic approximation alternative to the popular Hansen (1982) (offline) GMM, and offers fast and scalable implementation with the ability to handle streaming datasets in real time. We establish the almost sure convergence, and the (functional) central limit theorem for the inefficient online 2SLS and the efficient SGMM. Moreover, we propose online versions of the Durbin-Wu-Hausman and Sargan-Hansen tests that can be seamlessly integrated within the SGMM framework. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations show that as the sample size increases, the SGMM matches the standard (offline) GMM in terms of estimation accuracy and gains over computational efficiency, indicating its practical value for both large-scale and online datasets. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach by a proof of concept using two well known empirical examples with large sample sizes.

We consider the problem of approximating a function from L^2 by an element of a given m-dimensional space V_m, associated with some feature map varphi, using evaluations of the function at random points x_1,dots,x_n. After recalling some results on optimal weighted least-squares using independent and identically distributed points, we consider weighted least-squares using projection determinantal point processes (DPP) or volume sampling. These distributions introduce dependence between the points that promotes diversity in the selected features varphi(x_i). We first provide a generalized version of volume-rescaled sampling yielding quasi-optimality results in expectation with a number of samples n = O(mlog(m)), that means that the expected L^2 error is bounded by a constant times the best approximation error in L^2. Also, further assuming that the function is in some normed vector space H continuously embedded in L^2, we further prove that the approximation is almost surely bounded by the best approximation error measured in the H-norm. This includes the cases of functions from L^infty or reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Finally, we present an alternative strategy consisting in using independent repetitions of projection DPP (or volume sampling), yielding similar error bounds as with i.i.d. or volume sampling, but in practice with a much lower number of samples. Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the different strategies.

In the era of mega-constellations, the need for accurate and publicly available information has become fundamental for satellite operators to guarantee the safety of spacecrafts and the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) space environment. This study critically evaluates the accuracy and reliability of publicly available ephemeris data for a LEO mega-constellation - Starlink. The goal of this work is twofold: (i) compare and analyze the quality of the data against high-precision numerical propagation. (ii) Leverage Physics-Informed Machine Learning to extract relevant satellite quantities, such as non-conservative forces, during the decay process. By analyzing two months of real orbital data for approximately 1500 Starlink satellites, we identify discrepancies between high precision numerical algorithms and the published ephemerides, recognizing the use of simplified dynamics at fixed thresholds, planned maneuvers, and limitations in uncertainty propagations. Furthermore, we compare data obtained from multiple sources to track and analyze deorbiting satellites over the same period. Empirically, we extract the acceleration profile of satellites during deorbiting and provide insights relating to the effects of non-conservative forces during reentry. For non-deorbiting satellites, the position Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was approximately 300 m, while for deorbiting satellites it increased to about 600 m. Through this in-depth analysis, we highlight potential limitations in publicly available data for accurate and robust Space Situational Awareness (SSA), and importantly, we propose a data-driven model of satellite decay in mega-constellations.

We develop a variant of the stochastic prox-linear method for minimizing the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) objective. CVaR is a risk measure focused on minimizing worst-case performance, defined as the average of the top quantile of the losses. In machine learning, such a risk measure is useful to train more robust models. Although the stochastic subgradient method (SGM) is a natural choice for minimizing the CVaR objective, we show that our stochastic prox-linear (SPL+) algorithm can better exploit the structure of the objective, while still providing a convenient closed form update. Our SPL+ method also adapts to the scaling of the loss function, which allows for easier tuning. We then specialize a general convergence theorem for SPL+ to our setting, and show that it allows for a wider selection of step sizes compared to SGM. We support this theoretical finding experimentally.

Scale has become a main ingredient in obtaining strong machine learning models. As a result, understanding a model's scaling properties is key to effectively designing both the right training setup as well as future generations of architectures. In this work, we argue that scale and training research has been needlessly complex due to reliance on the cosine schedule, which prevents training across different lengths for the same model size. We investigate the training behavior of a direct alternative - constant learning rate and cooldowns - and find that it scales predictably and reliably similar to cosine. Additionally, we show that stochastic weight averaging yields improved performance along the training trajectory, without additional training costs, across different scales. Importantly, with these findings we demonstrate that scaling experiments can be performed with significantly reduced compute and GPU hours by utilizing fewer but reusable training runs.

In this paper, we focus on quantifying model stability as a function of random seed by investigating the effects of the induced randomness on model performance and the robustness of the model in general. We specifically perform a controlled study on the effect of random seeds on the behaviour of attention, gradient-based and surrogate model based (LIME) interpretations. Our analysis suggests that random seeds can adversely affect the consistency of models resulting in counterfactual interpretations. We propose a technique called Aggressive Stochastic Weight Averaging (ASWA)and an extension called Norm-filtered Aggressive Stochastic Weight Averaging (NASWA) which improves the stability of models over random seeds. With our ASWA and NASWA based optimization, we are able to improve the robustness of the original model, on average reducing the standard deviation of the model's performance by 72%.

We study the connection between multicalibration and boosting for squared error regression. First we prove a useful characterization of multicalibration in terms of a ``swap regret'' like condition on squared error. Using this characterization, we give an exceedingly simple algorithm that can be analyzed both as a boosting algorithm for regression and as a multicalibration algorithm for a class H that makes use only of a standard squared error regression oracle for H. We give a weak learning assumption on H that ensures convergence to Bayes optimality without the need to make any realizability assumptions -- giving us an agnostic boosting algorithm for regression. We then show that our weak learning assumption on H is both necessary and sufficient for multicalibration with respect to H to imply Bayes optimality. We also show that if H satisfies our weak learning condition relative to another class C then multicalibration with respect to H implies multicalibration with respect to C. Finally we investigate the empirical performance of our algorithm experimentally using an open source implementation that we make available. Our code repository can be found at https://github.com/Declancharrison/Level-Set-Boosting.

This paper provides a non-asymptotic analysis of linear stochastic approximation (LSA) algorithms with fixed stepsize. This family of methods arises in many machine learning tasks and is used to obtain approximate solutions of a linear system Atheta = b for which A and b can only be accessed through random estimates {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*}. Our analysis is based on new results regarding moments and high probability bounds for products of matrices which are shown to be tight. We derive high probability bounds on the performance of LSA under weaker conditions on the sequence {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*} than previous works. However, in contrast, we establish polynomial concentration bounds with order depending on the stepsize. We show that our conclusions cannot be improved without additional assumptions on the sequence of random matrices {{bf A}_n: n in N^*}, and in particular that no Gaussian or exponential high probability bounds can hold. Finally, we pay a particular attention to establishing bounds with sharp order with respect to the number of iterations and the stepsize and whose leading terms contain the covariance matrices appearing in the central limit theorems.

Recognition problems in long-tailed data, in which the sample size per class is heavily skewed, have gained importance because the distribution of the sample size per class in a dataset is generally exponential unless the sample size is intentionally adjusted. Various methods have been devised to address these problems. Recently, weight balancing, which combines well-known classical regularization techniques with two-stage training, has been proposed. Despite its simplicity, it is known for its high performance compared with existing methods devised in various ways. However, there is a lack of understanding as to why this method is effective for long-tailed data. In this study, we analyze weight balancing by focusing on neural collapse and the cone effect at each training stage and found that it can be decomposed into an increase in Fisher's discriminant ratio of the feature extractor caused by weight decay and cross entropy loss and implicit logit adjustment caused by weight decay and class-balanced loss. Our analysis enables the training method to be further simplified by reducing the number of training stages to one while increasing accuracy.

In the artificial neuron, I replace the dot product with the weighted Lehmer mean, which may emulate different cases of a generalized mean. The single neuron instance is replaced by a multiplet of neurons which have the same averaging weights. A group of outputs feed forward, in lieu of the single scalar. The generalization parameter is typically set to a different value for each neuron in the multiplet. I further extend the concept to a multiplet taken from the Gini mean. Derivatives with respect to the weight parameters and with respect to the two generalization parameters are given. Some properties of the network are investigated, showing the capacity to emulate the classical exclusive-or problem organically in two layers and perform some multiplication and division. The network can instantiate truncated power series and variants, which can be used to approximate different functions, provided that parameters are constrained. Moreover, a mean case slope score is derived that can facilitate a learning-rate novelty based on homogeneity of the selected elements. The multiplet neuron equation provides a way to segment regularization timeframes and approaches.

In this paper, we find a sample complexity bound for learning a simplex from noisy samples. Assume a dataset of size n is given which includes i.i.d. samples drawn from a uniform distribution over an unknown simplex in R^K, where samples are assumed to be corrupted by a multi-variate additive Gaussian noise of an arbitrary magnitude. We prove the existence of an algorithm that with high probability outputs a simplex having a ell_2 distance of at most varepsilon from the true simplex (for any varepsilon>0). Also, we theoretically show that in order to achieve this bound, it is sufficient to have ngeleft(K^2/varepsilon^2right)e^{Omegaleft(K/SNR^2right)} samples, where SNR stands for the signal-to-noise ratio. This result solves an important open problem and shows as long as SNRgeOmegaleft(K^{1/2}right), the sample complexity of the noisy regime has the same order to that of the noiseless case. Our proofs are a combination of the so-called sample compression technique in ashtiani2018nearly, mathematical tools from high-dimensional geometry, and Fourier analysis. In particular, we have proposed a general Fourier-based technique for recovery of a more general class of distribution families from additive Gaussian noise, which can be further used in a variety of other related problems.

The kernel thinning (KT) algorithm of Dwivedi and Mackey (2021) compresses a probability distribution more effectively than independent sampling by targeting a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) and leveraging a less smooth square-root kernel. Here we provide four improvements. First, we show that KT applied directly to the target RKHS yields tighter, dimension-free guarantees for any kernel, any distribution, and any fixed function in the RKHS. Second, we show that, for analytic kernels like Gaussian, inverse multiquadric, and sinc, target KT admits maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) guarantees comparable to or better than those of square-root KT without making explicit use of a square-root kernel. Third, we prove that KT with a fractional power kernel yields better-than-Monte-Carlo MMD guarantees for non-smooth kernels, like Laplace and Mat\'ern, that do not have square-roots. Fourth, we establish that KT applied to a sum of the target and power kernels (a procedure we call KT+) simultaneously inherits the improved MMD guarantees of power KT and the tighter individual function guarantees of target KT. In our experiments with target KT and KT+, we witness significant improvements in integration error even in 100 dimensions and when compressing challenging differential equation posteriors.

Automated model selection is often proposed to users to choose which machine learning model (or method) to apply to a given regression task. In this paper, we show that combining different regression models can yield better results than selecting a single ('best') regression model, and outline an efficient method that obtains optimally weighted convex linear combination from a heterogeneous set of regression models. More specifically, in this paper, a heuristic weight optimization, used in a preceding conference paper, is replaced by an exact optimization algorithm using convex quadratic programming. We prove convexity of the quadratic programming formulation for the straightforward formulation and for a formulation with weighted data points. The novel weight optimization is not only (more) exact but also more efficient. The methods we develop in this paper are implemented and made available via github-open source. They can be executed on commonly available hardware and offer a transparent and easy to interpret interface. The results indicate that the approach outperforms model selection methods on a range of data sets, including data sets with mixed variable type from drug discovery applications.

Data-based and learning-based sound source localization (SSL) has shown promising results in challenging conditions, and is commonly set as a classification or a regression problem. Regression-based approaches have certain advantages over classification-based, such as continuous direction-of-arrival estimation of static and moving sources. However, multi-source scenarios require multiple regressors without a clear training strategy up-to-date, that does not rely on auxiliary information such as simultaneous sound classification. We investigate end-to-end training of such methods with a technique recently proposed for video object detectors, adapted to the SSL setting. A differentiable network is constructed that can be plugged to the output of the localizer to solve the optimal assignment between predictions and references, optimizing directly the popular CLEAR-MOT tracking metrics. Results indicate large improvements over directly optimizing mean squared errors, in terms of localization error, detection metrics, and tracking capabilities.

Traditional direct estimation methods are not efficient for domains of a survey population with small sample sizes. To estimate the domain proportions, we combine the direct estimators and the regression-synthetic estimators based on domain-level auxiliary information. For the case of small true proportions, we introduce the design-based linear combination that is a robust alternative to the empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP) based on the Fay--Herriot model. We also consider an adaptive procedure optimizing a sample-size-dependent composite estimator, which depends on a single parameter for all domains. We imitate the Lithuanian Labor Force Survey, where we estimate the proportions of the unemployed and employed in municipalities. We show where the considered design-based compositions and estimators of their mean square errors are competitive for EBLUP and its accuracy estimation.

Excellent tail performance is crucial for modern machine learning tasks, such as algorithmic fairness, class imbalance, and risk-sensitive decision making, as it ensures the effective handling of challenging samples within a dataset. Tail performance is also a vital determinant of success for personalized recommender systems to reduce the risk of losing users with low satisfaction. This study introduces a "safe" collaborative filtering method that prioritizes recommendation quality for less-satisfied users rather than focusing on the average performance. Our approach minimizes the conditional value at risk (CVaR), which represents the average risk over the tails of users' loss. To overcome computational challenges for web-scale recommender systems, we develop a robust yet practical algorithm that extends the most scalable method, implicit alternating least squares (iALS). Empirical evaluation on real-world datasets demonstrates the excellent tail performance of our approach while maintaining competitive computational efficiency.

Stochastically Extended Adversarial (SEA) model is introduced by Sachs et al. [2022] as an interpolation between stochastic and adversarial online convex optimization. Under the smoothness condition, they demonstrate that the expected regret of optimistic follow-the-regularized-leader (FTRL) depends on the cumulative stochastic variance sigma_{1:T}^2 and the cumulative adversarial variation Sigma_{1:T}^2 for convex functions. They also provide a slightly weaker bound based on the maximal stochastic variance sigma_{max}^2 and the maximal adversarial variation Sigma_{max}^2 for strongly convex functions. Inspired by their work, we investigate the theoretical guarantees of optimistic online mirror descent (OMD) for the SEA model. For convex and smooth functions, we obtain the same O(sigma_{1:T^2}+Sigma_{1:T^2}) regret bound, without the convexity requirement of individual functions. For strongly convex and smooth functions, we establish an O(min{log (sigma_{1:T}^2+Sigma_{1:T}^2), (sigma_{max}^2 + Sigma_{max}^2) log T}) bound, better than their O((sigma_{max}^2 + Sigma_{max}^2) log T) bound. For exp-concave and smooth functions, we achieve a new O(dlog(sigma_{1:T}^2+Sigma_{1:T}^2)) bound. Owing to the OMD framework, we can further extend our result to obtain dynamic regret guarantees, which are more favorable in non-stationary online scenarios. The attained results allow us to recover excess risk bounds of the stochastic setting and regret bounds of the adversarial setting, and derive new guarantees for many intermediate scenarios.

Machine learning for time-series forecasting remains a key area of research. Despite successful application of many machine learning techniques, relating computational efficiency to forecast error remains an under-explored domain. This paper addresses this topic through a series of real-time experiments to quantify the relationship between computational cost and forecast error using meteorological nowcasting as an example use-case. We employ a variety of popular regression techniques (XGBoost, FC-MLP, Transformer, and LSTM) for multi-horizon, short-term forecasting of three variables (temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover) for multiple locations. During a 5-day live experiment, 4000 data sources were streamed for training and inferencing 144 models per hour. These models were parameterized to explore forecast error for two computational cost minimization methods: a novel auto-adaptive data reduction technique (Variance Horizon) and a performance-based concept drift-detection mechanism. Forecast error of all model variations were benchmarked in real-time against a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. Performance was assessed using classical and novel evaluation metrics. Results indicate that using the Variance Horizon reduced computational usage by more than 50\%, while increasing between 0-15\% in error. Meanwhile, performance-based retraining reduced computational usage by up to 90\% while also improving forecast error by up to 10\%. Finally, the combination of both the Variance Horizon and performance-based retraining outperformed other model configurations by up to 99.7\% when considering error normalized to computational usage.

Likelihood-free inference methods typically make use of a distance between simulated and real data. A common example is the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), which has previously been used for approximate Bayesian computation, minimum distance estimation, generalised Bayesian inference, and within the nonparametric learning framework. The MMD is commonly estimated at a root-m rate, where m is the number of simulated samples. This can lead to significant computational challenges since a large m is required to obtain an accurate estimate, which is crucial for parameter estimation. In this paper, we propose a novel estimator for the MMD with significantly improved sample complexity. The estimator is particularly well suited for computationally expensive smooth simulators with low- to mid-dimensional inputs. This claim is supported through both theoretical results and an extensive simulation study on benchmark simulators.

A collection of robust Mahalanobis distances for multivariate outlier detection is proposed, based on the notion of shrinkage. Robust intensity and scaling factors are optimally estimated to define the shrinkage. Some properties are investigated, such as affine equivariance and breakdown value. The performance of the proposal is illustrated through the comparison to other techniques from the literature, in a simulation study and with a real dataset. The behavior when the underlying distribution is heavy-tailed or skewed, shows the appropriateness of the method when we deviate from the common assumption of normality. The resulting high correct detection rates and low false detection rates in the vast majority of cases, as well as the significantly smaller computation time shows the advantages of our proposal.

In location estimation, we are given n samples from a known distribution f shifted by an unknown translation lambda, and want to estimate lambda as precisely as possible. Asymptotically, the maximum likelihood estimate achieves the Cram\'er-Rao bound of error mathcal N(0, 1{nmathcal I}), where mathcal I is the Fisher information of f. However, the n required for convergence depends on f, and may be arbitrarily large. We build on the theory using smoothed estimators to bound the error for finite n in terms of mathcal I_r, the Fisher information of the r-smoothed distribution. As n to infty, r to 0 at an explicit rate and this converges to the Cram\'er-Rao bound. We (1) improve the prior work for 1-dimensional f to converge for constant failure probability in addition to high probability, and (2) extend the theory to high-dimensional distributions. In the process, we prove a new bound on the norm of a high-dimensional random variable whose 1-dimensional projections are subgamma, which may be of independent interest.

Machine learning models frequently experience performance drops under distribution shifts. The underlying cause of such shifts may be multiple simultaneous factors such as changes in data quality, differences in specific covariate distributions, or changes in the relationship between label and features. When a model does fail during deployment, attributing performance change to these factors is critical for the model developer to identify the root cause and take mitigating actions. In this work, we introduce the problem of attributing performance differences between environments to distribution shifts in the underlying data generating mechanisms. We formulate the problem as a cooperative game where the players are distributions. We define the value of a set of distributions to be the change in model performance when only this set of distributions has changed between environments, and derive an importance weighting method for computing the value of an arbitrary set of distributions. The contribution of each distribution to the total performance change is then quantified as its Shapley value. We demonstrate the correctness and utility of our method on synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world case studies, showing its effectiveness in attributing performance changes to a wide range of distribution shifts.

Noise plagues many numerical datasets, where the recorded values in the data may fail to match the true underlying values due to reasons including: erroneous sensors, data entry/processing mistakes, or imperfect human estimates. We consider general regression settings with covariates and a potentially corrupted response whose observed values may contain errors. By accounting for various uncertainties, we introduced veracity scores that distinguish between genuine errors and natural data fluctuations, conditioned on the available covariate information in the dataset. We propose a simple yet efficient filtering procedure for eliminating potential errors, and establish theoretical guarantees for our method. We also contribute a new error detection benchmark involving 5 regression datasets with real-world numerical errors (for which the true values are also known). In this benchmark and additional simulation studies, our method identifies incorrect values with better precision/recall than other approaches.

Optimization with matrix gradient orthogonalization has recently demonstrated impressive results in the training of deep neural networks (Jordan et al., 2024; Liu et al., 2025). In this paper, we provide a theoretical analysis of this approach. In particular, we show that the orthogonalized gradient method can be seen as a first-order trust-region optimization method, where the trust-region is defined in terms of the matrix spectral norm. Motivated by this observation, we develop the stochastic non-Euclidean trust-region gradient method with momentum, which recovers the Muon optimizer (Jordan et al., 2024) as a special case, along with normalized SGD and signSGD with momentum (Cutkosky and Mehta, 2020; Sun et al., 2023). In addition, we prove state-of-the-art convergence results for the proposed algorithm in a range of scenarios, which involve arbitrary non-Euclidean norms, constrained and composite problems, and non-convex, star-convex, first- and second-order smooth functions. Finally, our theoretical findings provide an explanation for several practical observations, including the practical superiority of Muon compared to the Orthogonal-SGDM algorithm of Tuddenham et al. (2022) and the importance of weight decay in the training of large-scale language models.

Assigning importance weights to adversarial data has achieved great success in training adversarially robust networks under limited model capacity. However, existing instance-reweighted adversarial training (AT) methods heavily depend on heuristics and/or geometric interpretations to determine those importance weights, making these algorithms lack rigorous theoretical justification/guarantee. Moreover, recent research has shown that adversarial training suffers from a severe non-uniform robust performance across the training distribution, e.g., data points belonging to some classes can be much more vulnerable to adversarial attacks than others. To address both issues, in this paper, we propose a novel doubly-robust instance reweighted AT framework, which allows to obtain the importance weights via exploring distributionally robust optimization (DRO) techniques, and at the same time boosts the robustness on the most vulnerable examples. In particular, our importance weights are obtained by optimizing the KL-divergence regularized loss function, which allows us to devise new algorithms with a theoretical convergence guarantee. Experiments on standard classification datasets demonstrate that our proposed approach outperforms related state-of-the-art baseline methods in terms of average robust performance, and at the same time improves the robustness against attacks on the weakest data points. Codes will be available soon.

We study the class of location-scale or heteroscedastic noise models (LSNMs), in which the effect Y can be written as a function of the cause X and a noise source N independent of X, which may be scaled by a positive function g over the cause, i.e., Y = f(X) + g(X)N. Despite the generality of the model class, we show the causal direction is identifiable up to some pathological cases. To empirically validate these theoretical findings, we propose two estimators for LSNMs: an estimator based on (non-linear) feature maps, and one based on neural networks. Both model the conditional distribution of Y given X as a Gaussian parameterized by its natural parameters. When the feature maps are correctly specified, we prove that our estimator is jointly concave, and a consistent estimator for the cause-effect identification task. Although the the neural network does not inherit those guarantees, it can fit functions of arbitrary complexity, and reaches state-of-the-art performance across benchmarks.

In this work, we study the performance of sub-gradient method (SubGM) on a natural nonconvex and nonsmooth formulation of low-rank matrix recovery with ell_1-loss, where the goal is to recover a low-rank matrix from a limited number of measurements, a subset of which may be grossly corrupted with noise. We study a scenario where the rank of the true solution is unknown and over-estimated instead. The over-estimation of the rank gives rise to an over-parameterized model in which there are more degrees of freedom than needed. Such over-parameterization may lead to overfitting, or adversely affect the performance of the algorithm. We prove that a simple SubGM with small initialization is agnostic to both over-parameterization and noise in the measurements. In particular, we show that small initialization nullifies the effect of over-parameterization on the performance of SubGM, leading to an exponential improvement in its convergence rate. Moreover, we provide the first unifying framework for analyzing the behavior of SubGM under both outlier and Gaussian noise models, showing that SubGM converges to the true solution, even under arbitrarily large and arbitrarily dense noise values, and--perhaps surprisingly--even if the globally optimal solutions do not correspond to the ground truth. At the core of our results is a robust variant of restricted isometry property, called Sign-RIP, which controls the deviation of the sub-differential of the ell_1-loss from that of an ideal, expected loss. As a byproduct of our results, we consider a subclass of robust low-rank matrix recovery with Gaussian measurements, and show that the number of required samples to guarantee the global convergence of SubGM is independent of the over-parameterized rank.

Estimating truncated density models is difficult, as these models have intractable normalising constants and hard to satisfy boundary conditions. Score matching can be adapted to solve the truncated density estimation problem, but requires a continuous weighting function which takes zero at the boundary and is positive elsewhere. Evaluation of such a weighting function (and its gradient) often requires a closed-form expression of the truncation boundary and finding a solution to a complicated optimisation problem. In this paper, we propose approximate Stein classes, which in turn leads to a relaxed Stein identity for truncated density estimation. We develop a novel discrepancy measure, truncated kernelised Stein discrepancy (TKSD), which does not require fixing a weighting function in advance, and can be evaluated using only samples on the boundary. We estimate a truncated density model by minimising the Lagrangian dual of TKSD. Finally, experiments show the accuracy of our method to be an improvement over previous works even without the explicit functional form of the boundary.

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.

The Sliced-Wasserstein distance (SW) is a computationally efficient and theoretically grounded alternative to the Wasserstein distance. Yet, the literature on its statistical properties -- or, more accurately, its generalization properties -- with respect to the distribution of slices, beyond the uniform measure, is scarce. To bring new contributions to this line of research, we leverage the PAC-Bayesian theory and a central observation that SW may be interpreted as an average risk, the quantity PAC-Bayesian bounds have been designed to characterize. We provide three types of results: i) PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds that hold on what we refer as adaptive Sliced-Wasserstein distances, i.e. SW defined with respect to arbitrary distributions of slices (among which data-dependent distributions), ii) a principled procedure to learn the distribution of slices that yields maximally discriminative SW, by optimizing our theoretical bounds, and iii) empirical illustrations of our theoretical findings.

The quality of many modern machine learning models improves as model complexity increases, an effect that has been quantified, for predictive performance, with the non-monotonic double descent learning curve. Here, we address the overarching question: is there an analogous theory of double descent for models which estimate uncertainty? We provide a partially affirmative and partially negative answer in the setting of Gaussian processes (GP). Under standard assumptions, we prove that higher model quality for optimally-tuned GPs (including uncertainty prediction) under marginal likelihood is realized for larger input dimensions, and therefore exhibits a monotone error curve. After showing that marginal likelihood does not naturally exhibit double descent in the input dimension, we highlight related forms of posterior predictive loss that do exhibit non-monotonicity. Finally, we verify empirically that our results hold for real data, beyond our considered assumptions, and we explore consequences involving synthetic covariates.

The k-means++ seeding algorithm (Arthur & Vassilvitskii, 2007) is widely used in practice for the k-means clustering problem where the goal is to cluster a dataset X subset R ^d into k clusters. The popularity of this algorithm is due to its simplicity and provable guarantee of being O(log k) competitive with the optimal solution in expectation. However, its running time is O(|X|kd), making it expensive for large datasets. In this work, we present a simple and effective rejection sampling based approach for speeding up k-means++. Our first method runs in time O(nnz (X) + beta k^2d) while still being O(log k ) competitive in expectation. Here, beta is a parameter which is the ratio of the variance of the dataset to the optimal k-means cost in expectation and O hides logarithmic factors in k and |X|. Our second method presents a new trade-off between computational cost and solution quality. It incurs an additional scale-invariant factor of k^{-Omega( m/beta)} Var (X) in addition to the O(log k) guarantee of k-means++ improving upon a result of (Bachem et al, 2016a) who get an additional factor of m^{-1}Var(X) while still running in time O(nnz(X) + mk^2d). We perform extensive empirical evaluations to validate our theoretical results and to show the effectiveness of our approach on real datasets.

The Fisher information is a fundamental concept for characterizing the sensitivity of parameters in neural networks. However, leveraging the full observed Fisher information is too expensive for large models, so most methods rely on simple diagonal approximations. While efficient, this approach ignores parameter correlations, often resulting in reduced performance on downstream tasks. In this work, we mitigate these limitations and propose Generalized Fisher-Weighted SVD (GFWSVD), a post-training LLM compression technique that accounts for both diagonal and off-diagonal elements of the Fisher information matrix, providing a more accurate reflection of parameter importance. To make the method tractable, we introduce a scalable adaptation of the Kronecker-factored approximation algorithm for the observed Fisher information. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on LLM compression, showing improvements over existing compression baselines. For example, at a 20 compression rate on the MMLU benchmark, our method outperforms FWSVD, which is based on a diagonal approximation of the Fisher information, by 5 percent, SVD-LLM by 3 percent, and ASVD by 6 percent compression rate.

Recently, Qiao, Duan, and Cheng~(2019) proposed a distributed nearest-neighbor classification method, in which a massive dataset is split into smaller groups, each processed with a k-nearest-neighbor classifier, and the final class label is predicted by a majority vote among these groupwise class labels. This paper shows that the distributed algorithm with k=1 over a sufficiently large number of groups attains a minimax optimal error rate up to a multiplicative logarithmic factor under some regularity conditions, for both regression and classification problems. Roughly speaking, distributed 1-nearest-neighbor rules with M groups has a performance comparable to standard Theta(M)-nearest-neighbor rules. In the analysis, alternative rules with a refined aggregation method are proposed and shown to attain exact minimax optimal rates.

We study the problem of multi-task learning under user-level differential privacy, in which n users contribute data to m tasks, each involving a subset of users. One important aspect of the problem, that can significantly impact quality, is the distribution skew among tasks. Certain tasks may have much fewer data samples than others, making them more susceptible to the noise added for privacy. It is natural to ask whether algorithms can adapt to this skew to improve the overall utility. We give a systematic analysis of the problem, by studying how to optimally allocate a user's privacy budget among tasks. We propose a generic algorithm, based on an adaptive reweighting of the empirical loss, and show that when there is task distribution skew, this gives a quantifiable improvement of excess empirical risk. Experimental studies on recommendation problems that exhibit a long tail of small tasks, demonstrate that our methods significantly improve utility, achieving the state of the art on two standard benchmarks.

In this paper, we revisit the problem of sparse linear regression in the local differential privacy (LDP) model. Existing research in the non-interactive and sequentially local models has focused on obtaining the lower bounds for the case where the underlying parameter is 1-sparse, and extending such bounds to the more general k-sparse case has proven to be challenging. Moreover, it is unclear whether efficient non-interactive LDP (NLDP) algorithms exist. To address these issues, we first consider the problem in the epsilon non-interactive LDP model and provide a lower bound of Omega(sqrt{dklog d}{nepsilon}) on the ell_2-norm estimation error for sub-Gaussian data, where n is the sample size and d is the dimension of the space. We propose an innovative NLDP algorithm, the very first of its kind for the problem. As a remarkable outcome, this algorithm also yields a novel and highly efficient estimator as a valuable by-product. Our algorithm achieves an upper bound of O({dsqrt{k}{nepsilon}}) for the estimation error when the data is sub-Gaussian, which can be further improved by a factor of O(d) if the server has additional public but unlabeled data. For the sequentially interactive LDP model, we show a similar lower bound of Omega({sqrt{dk}{nepsilon}}). As for the upper bound, we rectify a previous method and show that it is possible to achieve a bound of O(ksqrt{d}{nepsilon}). Our findings reveal fundamental differences between the non-private case, central DP model, and local DP model in the sparse linear regression problem.

We propose a deep learning methodology for multivariate regression that is based on pattern recognition that triggers fast learning over sensor data. We used a conversion of sensors-to-image which enables us to take advantage of Computer Vision architectures and training processes. In addition to this data preparation methodology, we explore the use of state-of-the-art architectures to generate regression outputs to predict agricultural crop continuous yield information. Finally, we compare with some of the top models reported in MLCAS2021. We found that using a straightforward training process, we were able to accomplish an MAE of 4.394, RMSE of 5.945, and R^2 of 0.861.

For federated learning (FL) algorithms such as FedSAM, their generalization capability is crucial for real-word applications. In this paper, we revisit the generalization problem in FL and investigate the impact of data heterogeneity on FL generalization. We find that FedSAM usually performs worse than FedAvg in the case of highly heterogeneous data, and thus propose a novel and effective federated learning algorithm with Stochastic Weight Averaging (called FedSWA), which aims to find flatter minima in the setting of highly heterogeneous data. Moreover, we introduce a new momentum-based stochastic controlled weight averaging FL algorithm (FedMoSWA), which is designed to better align local and global models. Theoretically, we provide both convergence analysis and generalization bounds for FedSWA and FedMoSWA. We also prove that the optimization and generalization errors of FedMoSWA are smaller than those of their counterparts, including FedSAM and its variants. Empirically, experimental results on CIFAR10/100 and Tiny ImageNet demonstrate the superiority of the proposed algorithms compared to their counterparts. Open source code at: https://github.com/junkangLiu0/FedSWA.

Most crowd counting methods directly regress blockwise density maps using Mean Squared Error (MSE) losses. This practice has two key limitations: (1) it fails to account for the extreme spatial sparsity of annotations -- over 95% of 8x8 blocks are empty across standard benchmarks, so supervision signals in informative regions are diluted by the predominant zeros; (2) MSE corresponds to a Gaussian error model that poorly matches discrete, non-negative count data. To address these issues, we introduce ZIP, a scalable crowd counting framework that models blockwise counts with a Zero-Inflated Poisson likelihood: a zero-inflation term learns the probability a block is structurally empty (handling excess zeros), while the Poisson component captures expected counts when people are present (respecting discreteness). We provide a generalization analysis showing a tighter risk bound for ZIP than MSE-based losses and DMCount provided that the training resolution is moderately large. To assess the scalability of ZIP, we instantiate it on backbones spanning over 100x in parameters/compute. Experiments on ShanghaiTech A & B, UCF-QNRF, and NWPU-Crowd demonstrate that ZIP consistently surpasses state-of-the-art methods across all model scales.

Accelerated stochastic gradient descent (ASGD) is a workhorse in deep learning and often achieves better generalization performance than SGD. However, existing optimization theory can only explain the faster convergence of ASGD, but cannot explain its better generalization. In this paper, we study the generalization of ASGD for overparameterized linear regression, which is possibly the simplest setting of learning with overparameterization. We establish an instance-dependent excess risk bound for ASGD within each eigen-subspace of the data covariance matrix. Our analysis shows that (i) ASGD outperforms SGD in the subspace of small eigenvalues, exhibiting a faster rate of exponential decay for bias error, while in the subspace of large eigenvalues, its bias error decays slower than SGD; and (ii) the variance error of ASGD is always larger than that of SGD. Our result suggests that ASGD can outperform SGD when the difference between the initialization and the true weight vector is mostly confined to the subspace of small eigenvalues. Additionally, when our analysis is specialized to linear regression in the strongly convex setting, it yields a tighter bound for bias error than the best-known result.

There are several applications of stochastic optimization where one can benefit from a robust estimate of the gradient. For example, domains such as distributed learning with corrupted nodes, the presence of large outliers in the training data, learning under privacy constraints, or even heavy-tailed noise due to the dynamics of the algorithm itself. Here we study SGD with robust gradient estimators based on estimating the median. We first consider computing the median gradient across samples, and show that the resulting method can converge even under heavy-tailed, state-dependent noise. We then derive iterative methods based on the stochastic proximal point method for computing the geometric median and generalizations thereof. Finally we propose an algorithm estimating the median gradient across iterations, and find that several well known methods - in particular different forms of clipping - are particular cases of this framework.

Regression Mean (RegMean), an approach that formulates model merging as a linear regression problem, aims to find the optimal weights for each linear layer in the merge model by minimizing the discrepancy in predictions between the merge and candidate models. RegMean provides a precise closed-form solution for the merging problem; therefore, it offers explainability and computational efficiency. However, RegMean merges each linear layer independently, overlooking how the features and information in the earlier layers propagate through the layers and influence the final prediction in the merge model. In this paper, we introduce RegMean++, a simple yet effective alternative to RegMean, that explicitly incorporates both intra- and cross-layer dependencies between merge models' layers into RegMean's objective. By accounting for these dependencies, RegMean++ better captures the behaviors of the merge model. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RegMean++ consistently outperforms RegMean across diverse settings, including in-domain (ID) and out-of-domain (OOD) generalization, sequential merging, large-scale tasks, and robustness under several types of distribution shifts. Furthermore, RegMean++ achieves competitive or state-of-the-art performance compared to various recent advanced model merging methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/nthehai01/RegMean-plusplus.

The trade-off between regret and computational cost is a fundamental problem for online kernel regression, and previous algorithms worked on the trade-off can not keep optimal regret bounds at a sublinear computational complexity. In this paper, we propose two new algorithms, AOGD-ALD and NONS-ALD, which can keep nearly optimal regret bounds at a sublinear computational complexity, and give sufficient conditions under which our algorithms work. Both algorithms dynamically maintain a group of nearly orthogonal basis used to approximate the kernel mapping, and keep nearly optimal regret bounds by controlling the approximate error. The number of basis depends on the approximate error and the decay rate of eigenvalues of the kernel matrix. If the eigenvalues decay exponentially, then AOGD-ALD and NONS-ALD separately achieves a regret of O(L(f)) and O(d_{eff}(mu)T) at a computational complexity in O(ln^2{T}). If the eigenvalues decay polynomially with degree pgeq 1, then our algorithms keep the same regret bounds at a computational complexity in o(T) in the case of p>4 and pgeq 10, respectively. L(f) is the cumulative losses of f and d_{eff}(mu) is the effective dimension of the problem. The two regret bounds are nearly optimal and are not comparable.

This paper presents our approach to accelerate computer architecture simulation by leveraging machine learning techniques. Traditional computer architecture simulations are time-consuming, making it challenging to explore different design choices efficiently. Our proposed model utilizes a combination of application features and micro-architectural features to predict the performance of an application. These features are derived from simulations of a small portion of the application. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by building and evaluating a machine learning model that offers significant speedup in architectural exploration. This model demonstrates the ability to predict IPC values for the testing data with a root mean square error of less than 0.1.

We study principal component analysis (PCA), where given a dataset in R^d from a distribution, the task is to find a unit vector v that approximately maximizes the variance of the distribution after being projected along v. Despite being a classical task, standard estimators fail drastically if the data contains even a small fraction of outliers, motivating the problem of robust PCA. Recent work has developed computationally-efficient algorithms for robust PCA that either take super-linear time or have sub-optimal error guarantees. Our main contribution is to develop a nearly-linear time algorithm for robust PCA with near-optimal error guarantees. We also develop a single-pass streaming algorithm for robust PCA with memory usage nearly-linear in the dimension.

In this article, we introduce a novel normalization technique for neural network weight matrices, which we term weight conditioning. This approach aims to narrow the gap between the smallest and largest singular values of the weight matrices, resulting in better-conditioned matrices. The inspiration for this technique partially derives from numerical linear algebra, where well-conditioned matrices are known to facilitate stronger convergence results for iterative solvers. We provide a theoretical foundation demonstrating that our normalization technique smoothens the loss landscape, thereby enhancing convergence of stochastic gradient descent algorithms. Empirically, we validate our normalization across various neural network architectures, including Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Vision Transformers (ViT), Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF), and 3D shape modeling. Our findings indicate that our normalization method is not only competitive but also outperforms existing weight normalization techniques from the literature.

In several recently proposed stochastic optimization methods (e.g. RMSProp, Adam, Adadelta), parameter updates are scaled by the inverse square roots of exponential moving averages of squared past gradients. Maintaining these per-parameter second-moment estimators requires memory equal to the number of parameters. For the case of neural network weight matrices, we propose maintaining only the per-row and per-column sums of these moving averages, and estimating the per-parameter second moments based on these sums. We demonstrate empirically that this method produces similar results to the baseline. Secondly, we show that adaptive methods can produce larger-than-desired updates when the decay rate of the second moment accumulator is too slow. We propose update clipping and a gradually increasing decay rate scheme as remedies. Combining these methods and dropping momentum, we achieve comparable results to the published Adam regime in training the Transformer model on the WMT 2014 English-German machine translation task, while using very little auxiliary storage in the optimizer. Finally, we propose scaling the parameter updates based on the scale of the parameters themselves.

Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) stands as a cornerstone optimization algorithm with proven real-world empirical successes but relatively limited theoretical understanding. Recent research has illuminated a key factor contributing to its practical efficacy: the implicit regularization it instigates. Several studies have investigated the linear stability property of SGD in the vicinity of a stationary point as a predictive proxy for sharpness and generalization error in overparameterized neural networks (Wu et al., 2022; Jastrzebski et al., 2019; Cohen et al., 2021). In this paper, we delve deeper into the relationship between linear stability and sharpness. More specifically, we meticulously delineate the necessary and sufficient conditions for linear stability, contingent on hyperparameters of SGD and the sharpness at the optimum. Towards this end, we introduce a novel coherence measure of the loss Hessian that encapsulates pertinent geometric properties of the loss function that are relevant to the linear stability of SGD. It enables us to provide a simplified sufficient condition for identifying linear instability at an optimum. Notably, compared to previous works, our analysis relies on significantly milder assumptions and is applicable for a broader class of loss functions than known before, encompassing not only mean-squared error but also cross-entropy loss.

Maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) flows suffer from high computational costs in large scale computations. In this paper, we show that MMD flows with Riesz kernels K(x,y) = - |x-y|^r, r in (0,2) have exceptional properties which allow their efficient computation. We prove that the MMD of Riesz kernels, which is also known as energy distance, coincides with the MMD of their sliced version. As a consequence, the computation of gradients of MMDs can be performed in the one-dimensional setting. Here, for r=1, a simple sorting algorithm can be applied to reduce the complexity from O(MN+N^2) to O((M+N)log(M+N)) for two measures with M and N support points. As another interesting follow-up result, the MMD of compactly supported measures can be estimated from above and below by the Wasserstein-1 distance. For the implementations we approximate the gradient of the sliced MMD by using only a finite number P of slices. We show that the resulting error has complexity O(d/P), where d is the data dimension. These results enable us to train generative models by approximating MMD gradient flows by neural networks even for image applications. We demonstrate the efficiency of our model by image generation on MNIST, FashionMNIST and CIFAR10.

Long-tailed classification poses a challenge due to its heavy imbalance in class probabilities and tail-sensitivity risks with asymmetric misprediction costs. Recent attempts have used re-balancing loss and ensemble methods, but they are largely heuristic and depend heavily on empirical results, lacking theoretical explanation. Furthermore, existing methods overlook the decision loss, which characterizes different costs associated with tailed classes. This paper presents a general and principled framework from a Bayesian-decision-theory perspective, which unifies existing techniques including re-balancing and ensemble methods, and provides theoretical justifications for their effectiveness. From this perspective, we derive a novel objective based on the integrated risk and a Bayesian deep-ensemble approach to improve the accuracy of all classes, especially the "tail". Besides, our framework allows for task-adaptive decision loss which provides provably optimal decisions in varying task scenarios, along with the capability to quantify uncertainty. Finally, We conduct comprehensive experiments, including standard classification, tail-sensitive classification with a new False Head Rate metric, calibration, and ablation studies. Our framework significantly improves the current SOTA even on large-scale real-world datasets like ImageNet.

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

This study evaluates the performance of 41 machine learning models, including 21 classifiers and 20 regressors, in predicting Bitcoin prices for algorithmic trading. By examining these models under various market conditions, we highlight their accuracy, robustness, and adaptability to the volatile cryptocurrency market. Our comprehensive analysis reveals the strengths and limitations of each model, providing critical insights for developing effective trading strategies. We employ both machine learning metrics (e.g., Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Squared Error) and trading metrics (e.g., Profit and Loss percentage, Sharpe Ratio) to assess model performance. Our evaluation includes backtesting on historical data, forward testing on recent unseen data, and real-world trading scenarios, ensuring the robustness and practical applicability of our models. Key findings demonstrate that certain models, such as Random Forest and Stochastic Gradient Descent, outperform others in terms of profit and risk management. These insights offer valuable guidance for traders and researchers aiming to leverage machine learning for cryptocurrency trading.

Conventional uncertainty-aware temporal difference (TD) learning methods often rely on simplistic assumptions, typically including a zero-mean Gaussian distribution for TD errors. Such oversimplification can lead to inaccurate error representations and compromised uncertainty estimation. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework for generalized Gaussian error modeling in deep reinforcement learning, applicable to both discrete and continuous control settings. Our framework enhances the flexibility of error distribution modeling by incorporating additional higher-order moment, particularly kurtosis, thereby improving the estimation and mitigation of data-dependent noise, i.e., aleatoric uncertainty. We examine the influence of the shape parameter of the generalized Gaussian distribution (GGD) on aleatoric uncertainty and provide a closed-form expression that demonstrates an inverse relationship between uncertainty and the shape parameter. Additionally, we propose a theoretically grounded weighting scheme to fully leverage the GGD. To address epistemic uncertainty, we enhance the batch inverse variance weighting by incorporating bias reduction and kurtosis considerations, resulting in improved robustness. Extensive experimental evaluations using policy gradient algorithms demonstrate the consistent efficacy of our method, showcasing significant performance improvements.

The generalization performance of a machine learning algorithm such as a neural network depends in a non-trivial way on the structure of the data distribution. To analyze the influence of data structure on test loss dynamics, we study an exactly solveable model of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) on mean square loss which predicts test loss when training on features with arbitrary covariance structure. We solve the theory exactly for both Gaussian features and arbitrary features and we show that the simpler Gaussian model accurately predicts test loss of nonlinear random-feature models and deep neural networks trained with SGD on real datasets such as MNIST and CIFAR-10. We show that the optimal batch size at a fixed compute budget is typically small and depends on the feature correlation structure, demonstrating the computational benefits of SGD with small batch sizes. Lastly, we extend our theory to the more usual setting of stochastic gradient descent on a fixed subsampled training set, showing that both training and test error can be accurately predicted in our framework on real data.

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

Wireless sensing has recently found widespread applications in diverse environments, including homes, offices, and public spaces. By analyzing patterns in channel state information (CSI), it is possible to infer human actions for tasks such as person identification, gesture recognition, and fall detection. However, CSI is highly sensitive to environmental changes, where even minor alterations can significantly distort the CSI patterns. This sensitivity often leads to performance degradation or outright failure when applying wireless sensing models trained in one environment to another. To address this challenge, Domain Alignment (DAL) has been widely adopted for cross-domain classification tasks, as it focuses on aligning the global distributions of the source and target domains in feature space. Despite its popularity, DAL often neglects inter-category relationships, which can lead to misalignment between categories across domains, even when global alignment is achieved. To overcome these limitations, we propose K-Nearest Neighbors Maximum Mean Discrepancy (KNN-MMD), a novel few-shot method for cross-domain wireless sensing. Our approach begins by constructing a help set using KNN from the target domain, enabling local alignment between the source and target domains within each category using MMD. Additionally, we address a key instability issue commonly observed in cross-domain methods, where model performance fluctuates sharply between epochs. Further, most existing methods struggle to determine an optimal stopping point during training due to the absence of labeled data from the target domain. Our method resolves this by excluding the support set from the target domain during training and employing it as a validation set to determine the stopping criterion.The dataset and code are publicly available at https://github.com/RS2002/KNN-MMD .

We seek to learn an effective policy for a Markov Decision Process (MDP) with continuous states via Q-Learning. Given a set of basis functions over state action pairs we search for a corresponding set of linear weights that minimizes the mean Bellman residual. Our algorithm uses a Kalman filter model to estimate those weights and we have developed a simpler approximate Kalman filter model that outperforms the current state of the art projected TD-Learning methods on several standard benchmark problems.

We employ random matrix theory to establish consistency of generalized cross validation (GCV) for estimating prediction risks of sketched ridge regression ensembles, enabling efficient and consistent tuning of regularization and sketching parameters. Our results hold for a broad class of asymptotically free sketches under very mild data assumptions. For squared prediction risk, we provide a decomposition into an unsketched equivalent implicit ridge bias and a sketching-based variance, and prove that the risk can be globally optimized by only tuning sketch size in infinite ensembles. For general subquadratic prediction risk functionals, we extend GCV to construct consistent risk estimators, and thereby obtain distributional convergence of the GCV-corrected predictions in Wasserstein-2 metric. This in particular allows construction of prediction intervals with asymptotically correct coverage conditional on the training data. We also propose an "ensemble trick" whereby the risk for unsketched ridge regression can be efficiently estimated via GCV using small sketched ridge ensembles. We empirically validate our theoretical results using both synthetic and real large-scale datasets with practical sketches including CountSketch and subsampled randomized discrete cosine transforms.

Multivariate time series is prevalent in many scientific and industrial domains. Modeling multivariate signals is challenging due to their long-range temporal dependencies and intricate interactions--both direct and indirect. To confront these complexities, we introduce a method of representing multivariate signals as nodes in a graph with edges indicating interdependency between them. Specifically, we leverage graph neural networks (GNN) and attention mechanisms to efficiently learn the underlying relationships within the time series data. Moreover, we suggest employing hierarchical signal decompositions running over the graphs to capture multiple spatial dependencies. The effectiveness of our proposed model is evaluated across various real-world benchmark datasets designed for long-term forecasting tasks. The results consistently showcase the superiority of our model, achieving an average 23\% reduction in mean squared error (MSE) compared to existing models.

Moment restrictions and their conditional counterparts emerge in many areas of machine learning and statistics ranging from causal inference to reinforcement learning. Estimators for these tasks, generally called methods of moments, include the prominent generalized method of moments (GMM) which has recently gained attention in causal inference. GMM is a special case of the broader family of empirical likelihood estimators which are based on approximating a population distribution by means of minimizing a varphi-divergence to an empirical distribution. However, the use of varphi-divergences effectively limits the candidate distributions to reweightings of the data samples. We lift this long-standing limitation and provide a method of moments that goes beyond data reweighting. This is achieved by defining an empirical likelihood estimator based on maximum mean discrepancy which we term the kernel method of moments (KMM). We provide a variant of our estimator for conditional moment restrictions and show that it is asymptotically first-order optimal for such problems. Finally, we show that our method achieves competitive performance on several conditional moment restriction tasks.

Cricket, "a Gentleman's Game", is a prominent sport rising worldwide. Due to the rising competitiveness of the sport, players and team management have become more professional with their approach. Prior studies predicted individual performance or chose the best team but did not highlight the batter's potential. On the other hand, our research aims to evaluate a player's impact while considering his control in various circumstances. This paper seeks to understand the conundrum behind this impactful performance by determining how much control a player has over the circumstances and generating the "Effective Runs",a new measure we propose. We first gathered the fundamental cricket data from open-source datasets; however, variables like pitch, weather, and control were not readily available for all matches. As a result, we compiled our corpus data by analyzing the commentary of the match summaries. This gave us an insight into the particular game's weather and pitch conditions. Furthermore, ball-by-ball inspection from the commentary led us to determine the control of the shots played by the batter. We collected data for the entire One Day International career, up to February 2022, of 3 prominent cricket players: Rohit G Sharma, David A Warner, and Kane S Williamson. Lastly, to prepare the dataset, we encoded, scaled, and split the dataset to train and test Machine Learning Algorithms. We used Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Polynomial Regression, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Decision Tree Regression, and Random Forest Regression on each player's data individually to train them and predict the Impact the player will have on the game. Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest give the best predictions accuracy of 90.16 percent and 87.12 percent, respectively.

Clustering non-Euclidean data is difficult, and one of the most used algorithms besides hierarchical clustering is the popular algorithm Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM), also simply referred to as k-medoids clustering. In Euclidean geometry the mean-as used in k-means-is a good estimator for the cluster center, but this does not exist for arbitrary dissimilarities. PAM uses the medoid instead, the object with the smallest dissimilarity to all others in the cluster. This notion of centrality can be used with any (dis-)similarity, and thus is of high relevance to many domains and applications. A key issue with PAM is its high run time cost. We propose modifications to the PAM algorithm that achieve an O(k)-fold speedup in the second ("SWAP") phase of the algorithm, but will still find the same results as the original PAM algorithm. If we relax the choice of swaps performed (while retaining comparable quality), we can further accelerate the algorithm by eagerly performing additional swaps in each iteration. With the substantially faster SWAP, we can now explore faster initialization strategies, because (i) the classic ("BUILD") initialization now becomes the bottleneck, and (ii) our swap is fast enough to compensate for worse starting conditions. We also show how the CLARA and CLARANS algorithms benefit from the proposed modifications. While we do not study the parallelization of our approach in this work, it can easily be combined with earlier approaches to use PAM and CLARA on big data (some of which use PAM as a subroutine, hence can immediately benefit from these improvements), where the performance with high k becomes increasingly important. In experiments on real data with k=100,200, we observed a 458x respectively 1191x speedup compared to the original PAM SWAP algorithm, making PAM applicable to larger data sets, and in particular to higher k.

When fitting the learning data of an individual to algorithm-like learning models, the observations are so dependent and non-stationary that one may wonder what the classical Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) could do, even if it is the usual tool applied to experimental cognition. Our objective in this work is to show that the estimation of the learning rate cannot be efficient if the learning rate is constant in the classical Exp3 (Exponential weights for Exploration and Exploitation) algorithm. Secondly, we show that if the learning rate decreases polynomially with the sample size, then the prediction error and in some cases the estimation error of the MLE satisfy bounds in probability that decrease at a polynomial rate.

Recent works have shown a reduction from contextual bandits to online regression under a realizability assumption [Foster and Rakhlin, 2020, Foster and Krishnamurthy, 2021]. In this work, we investigate the use of neural networks for such online regression and associated Neural Contextual Bandits (NeuCBs). Using existing results for wide networks, one can readily show a {O}(T) regret for online regression with square loss, which via the reduction implies a {O}(K T^{3/4}) regret for NeuCBs. Departing from this standard approach, we first show a O(log T) regret for online regression with almost convex losses that satisfy QG (Quadratic Growth) condition, a generalization of the PL (Polyak-\L ojasiewicz) condition, and that have a unique minima. Although not directly applicable to wide networks since they do not have unique minima, we show that adding a suitable small random perturbation to the network predictions surprisingly makes the loss satisfy QG with unique minima. Based on such a perturbed prediction, we show a {O}(log T) regret for online regression with both squared loss and KL loss, and subsequently convert these respectively to mathcal{O}(KT) and mathcal{O}(KL^* + K) regret for NeuCB, where L^* is the loss of the best policy. Separately, we also show that existing regret bounds for NeuCBs are Omega(T) or assume i.i.d. contexts, unlike this work. Finally, our experimental results on various datasets demonstrate that our algorithms, especially the one based on KL loss, persistently outperform existing algorithms.

Error Feedback (EF) is a highly popular and immensely effective mechanism for fixing convergence issues which arise in distributed training methods (such as distributed GD or SGD) when these are enhanced with greedy communication compression techniques such as TopK. While EF was proposed almost a decade ago (Seide et al., 2014), and despite concentrated effort by the community to advance the theoretical understanding of this mechanism, there is still a lot to explore. In this work we study a modern form of error feedback called EF21 (Richtarik et al., 2021) which offers the currently best-known theoretical guarantees, under the weakest assumptions, and also works well in practice. In particular, while the theoretical communication complexity of EF21 depends on the quadratic mean of certain smoothness parameters, we improve this dependence to their arithmetic mean, which is always smaller, and can be substantially smaller, especially in heterogeneous data regimes. We take the reader on a journey of our discovery process. Starting with the idea of applying EF21 to an equivalent reformulation of the underlying problem which (unfortunately) requires (often impractical) machine cloning, we continue to the discovery of a new weighted version of EF21 which can (fortunately) be executed without any cloning, and finally circle back to an improved analysis of the original EF21 method. While this development applies to the simplest form of EF21, our approach naturally extends to more elaborate variants involving stochastic gradients and partial participation. Further, our technique improves the best-known theory of EF21 in the rare features regime (Richtarik et al., 2023). Finally, we validate our theoretical findings with suitable experiments.

Marcinkiewicz strong law of large numbers, {n^{-frac1p}}sum_{k=1}^{n} (d_{k}- d)rightarrow 0 almost surely with pin(1,2), are developed for products d_k=prod_{r=1}^s x_k^{(r)}, where the x_k^{(r)} = sum_{l=-infty}^{infty}c_{k-l}^{(r)}xi_l^{(r)} are two-sided linear processes with coefficients {c_l^{(r)}}_{lin Z} and i.i.d. zero-mean innovations {xi_l^{(r)}}_{lin Z}. The decay of the coefficients c_l^{(r)} as |l|toinfty, can be slow enough for {x_k^{(r)}} to have long memory while {d_k} can have heavy tails. The long-range dependence and heavy tails for {d_k} are handled simultaneously and a decoupling property shows the convergence rate is dictated by the worst of long-range dependence and heavy tails, but not their combination. The Marcinkiewicz strong law of large numbers is also extended to the multivariate linear process case.

In our era of enormous neural networks, empirical progress has been driven by the philosophy that more is better. Recent deep learning practice has found repeatedly that larger model size, more data, and more computation (resulting in lower training loss) improves performance. In this paper, we give theoretical backing to these empirical observations by showing that these three properties hold in random feature (RF) regression, a class of models equivalent to shallow networks with only the last layer trained. Concretely, we first show that the test risk of RF regression decreases monotonically with both the number of features and the number of samples, provided the ridge penalty is tuned optimally. In particular, this implies that infinite width RF architectures are preferable to those of any finite width. We then proceed to demonstrate that, for a large class of tasks characterized by powerlaw eigenstructure, training to near-zero training loss is obligatory: near-optimal performance can only be achieved when the training error is much smaller than the test error. Grounding our theory in real-world data, we find empirically that standard computer vision tasks with convolutional neural tangent kernels clearly fall into this class. Taken together, our results tell a simple, testable story of the benefits of overparameterization, overfitting, and more data in random feature models.

It has recently been conjectured that neural network solution sets reachable via stochastic gradient descent (SGD) are convex, considering permutation invariances (Entezari et al., 2022). This means that a linear path can connect two independent solutions with low loss, given the weights of one of the models are appropriately permuted. However, current methods to test this theory often require very wide networks to succeed. In this work, we conjecture that more generally, the SGD solution set is a "star domain" that contains a "star model" that is linearly connected to all the other solutions via paths with low loss values, modulo permutations. We propose the Starlight algorithm that finds a star model of a given learning task. We validate our claim by showing that this star model is linearly connected with other independently found solutions. As an additional benefit of our study, we demonstrate better uncertainty estimates on the Bayesian Model Averaging over the obtained star domain. Further, we demonstrate star models as potential substitutes for model ensembles. Our code is available at https://github.com/aktsonthalia/starlight.

Real-world datasets exhibit imbalances of varying types and degrees. Several techniques based on re-weighting and margin adjustment of loss are often used to enhance the performance of neural networks, particularly on minority classes. In this work, we analyze the class-imbalanced learning problem by examining the loss landscape of neural networks trained with re-weighting and margin-based techniques. Specifically, we examine the spectral density of Hessian of class-wise loss, through which we observe that the network weights converge to a saddle point in the loss landscapes of minority classes. Following this observation, we also find that optimization methods designed to escape from saddle points can be effectively used to improve generalization on minority classes. We further theoretically and empirically demonstrate that Sharpness-Aware Minimization (SAM), a recent technique that encourages convergence to a flat minima, can be effectively used to escape saddle points for minority classes. Using SAM results in a 6.2\% increase in accuracy on the minority classes over the state-of-the-art Vector Scaling Loss, leading to an overall average increase of 4\% across imbalanced datasets. The code is available at: https://github.com/val-iisc/Saddle-LongTail.

We study the problem of online prediction, in which at each time step t, an individual x_t arrives, whose label we must predict. Each individual is associated with various groups, defined based on their features such as age, sex, race etc., which may intersect. Our goal is to make predictions that have regret guarantees not just overall but also simultaneously on each sub-sequence comprised of the members of any single group. Previous work such as [Blum & Lykouris] and [Lee et al] provide attractive regret guarantees for these problems; however, these are computationally intractable on large model classes. We show that a simple modification of the sleeping experts technique of [Blum & Lykouris] yields an efficient reduction to the well-understood problem of obtaining diminishing external regret absent group considerations. Our approach gives similar regret guarantees compared to [Blum & Lykouris]; however, we run in time linear in the number of groups, and are oracle-efficient in the hypothesis class. This in particular implies that our algorithm is efficient whenever the number of groups is polynomially bounded and the external-regret problem can be solved efficiently, an improvement on [Blum & Lykouris]'s stronger condition that the model class must be small. Our approach can handle online linear regression and online combinatorial optimization problems like online shortest paths. Beyond providing theoretical regret bounds, we evaluate this algorithm with an extensive set of experiments on synthetic data and on two real data sets -- Medical costs and the Adult income dataset, both instantiated with intersecting groups defined in terms of race, sex, and other demographic characteristics. We find that uniformly across groups, our algorithm gives substantial error improvements compared to running a standard online linear regression algorithm with no groupwise regret guarantees.

Radio-frequency coverage maps (RF maps) are extensively utilized in wireless networks for capacity planning, placement of access points and base stations, localization, and coverage estimation. Conducting site surveys to obtain RF maps is labor-intensive and sometimes not feasible. In this paper, we propose radio-frequency adversarial deep-learning inference for automated network coverage estimation (RADIANCE), a generative adversarial network (GAN) based approach for synthesizing RF maps in indoor scenarios. RADIANCE utilizes a semantic map, a high-level representation of the indoor environment to encode spatial relationships and attributes of objects within the environment and guide the RF map generation process. We introduce a new gradient-based loss function that computes the magnitude and direction of change in received signal strength (RSS) values from a point within the environment. RADIANCE incorporates this loss function along with the antenna pattern to capture signal propagation within a given indoor configuration and generate new patterns under new configuration, antenna (beam) pattern, and center frequency. Extensive simulations are conducted to compare RADIANCE with ray-tracing simulations of RF maps. Our results show that RADIANCE achieves a mean average error (MAE) of 0.09, root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of 0.29, peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR) of 10.78, and multi-scale structural similarity index (MS-SSIM) of 0.80.

Learning unnormalized statistical models (e.g., energy-based models) is computationally challenging due to the complexity of handling the partition function. To eschew this complexity, noise-contrastive estimation~(NCE) has been proposed by formulating the objective as the logistic loss of the real data and the artificial noise. However, as found in previous works, NCE may perform poorly in many tasks due to its flat loss landscape and slow convergence. In this paper, we study it a direct approach for optimizing the negative log-likelihood of unnormalized models from the perspective of compositional optimization. To tackle the partition function, a noise distribution is introduced such that the log partition function can be written as a compositional function whose inner function can be estimated with stochastic samples. Hence, the objective can be optimized by stochastic compositional optimization algorithms. Despite being a simple method, we demonstrate that it is more favorable than NCE by (1) establishing a fast convergence rate and quantifying its dependence on the noise distribution through the variance of stochastic estimators; (2) developing better results for one-dimensional Gaussian mean estimation by showing our objective has a much favorable loss landscape and hence our method enjoys faster convergence; (3) demonstrating better performance on multiple applications, including density estimation, out-of-distribution detection, and real image generation.

A popular approach to sample a diffusion-based generative model is to solve an ordinary differential equation (ODE). In existing samplers, the coefficients of the ODE solvers are pre-determined by the ODE formulation, the reverse discrete timesteps, and the employed ODE methods. In this paper, we consider accelerating several popular ODE-based sampling processes (including EDM, DDIM, and DPM-Solver) by optimizing certain coefficients via improved integration approximation (IIA). We propose to minimize, for each time step, a mean squared error (MSE) function with respect to the selected coefficients. The MSE is constructed by applying the original ODE solver for a set of fine-grained timesteps, which in principle provides a more accurate integration approximation in predicting the next diffusion state. The proposed IIA technique does not require any change of a pre-trained model, and only introduces a very small computational overhead for solving a number of quadratic optimization problems. Extensive experiments show that considerably better FID scores can be achieved by using IIA-EDM, IIA-DDIM, and IIA-DPM-Solver than the original counterparts when the neural function evaluation (NFE) is small (i.e., less than 25).

Black box optimisation of an unknown function from expensive and noisy evaluations is a ubiquitous problem in machine learning, academic research and industrial production. An abstraction of the problem can be formulated as a kernel based bandit problem (also known as Bayesian optimisation), where a learner aims at optimising a kernelized function through sequential noisy observations. The existing work predominantly assumes feedback is immediately available; an assumption which fails in many real world situations, including recommendation systems, clinical trials and hyperparameter tuning. We consider a kernel bandit problem under stochastically delayed feedback, and propose an algorithm with mathcal{O}(Gamma_k(T)T+E[tau]) regret, where T is the number of time steps, Gamma_k(T) is the maximum information gain of the kernel with T observations, and tau is the delay random variable. This represents a significant improvement over the state of the art regret bound of mathcal{O}(Gamma_k(T)T+E[tau]Gamma_k(T)) reported in Verma et al. (2022). In particular, for very non-smooth kernels, the information gain grows almost linearly in time, trivializing the existing results. We also validate our theoretical results with simulations.

Basic human values represent a set of values such as security, independence, success, kindness, and pleasure, which we deem important to our lives. Each of us holds different values with different degrees of significance. Existing studies show that values of a person can be identified from their social network usage. However, the value priority of a person may change over time due to different factors such as life experiences, influence, social structure and technology. Existing studies do not conduct any analysis regarding the change of users' value from the social influence, i.e., group persuasion, form the social media usage. In our research, first, we predict users' value score by the influence of friends from their social media usage. We propose a Bounded Confidence Model (BCM) based value dynamics model from 275 different ego networks in Facebook that predicts how social influence may persuade a person to change their value over time. Then, to predict better, we use particle swarm optimization based hyperparameter tuning technique. We observe that these optimized hyperparameters produce accurate future value score. We also run our approach with different machine learning based methods and find support vector regression (SVR) outperforms other regressor models. By using SVR with the best hyperparameters of BCM model, we find the lowest Mean Squared Error (MSE) score 0.00347.

Inspired by the latest developments in multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods and randomised sketching for linear algebra problems we propose a MLMC estimator for real-time processing of matrix structured random data. Our algorithm is particularly effective in handling high-dimensional inner products and matrix multiplication, in applications of image analysis and large-scale supervised learning.

Introduction: The paper addresses the challenging problem of predicting the short-term realized volatility of the Bitcoin price using order flow information. The inherent stochastic nature and anti-persistence of price pose difficulties in accurate prediction. Methods: To address this, we propose a method that transforms order flow data over a fixed time interval (snapshots) into images. The order flow includes trade sizes, trade directions, and limit order book, and is mapped into image colour channels. These images are then used to train both a simple 3-layer Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and more advanced ResNet-18 and ConvMixer, with additionally supplementing them with hand-crafted features. The models are evaluated against classical GARCH, Multilayer Perceptron trained on raw data, and a naive guess method that considers current volatility as a prediction. Results: The experiments are conducted using price data from January 2021 and evaluate model performance in terms of root mean square error (RMSPE). The results show that our order flow representation with a CNN as a predictive model achieves the best performance, with an RMSPE of 0.85+/-1.1 for the model with aggregated features and 1.0+/-1.4 for the model without feature supplementation. ConvMixer with feature supplementation follows closely. In comparison, the RMSPE for the naive guess method was 1.4+/-3.0.

We obtain almost sure bounds for the weighted sum sum_{n leq t} f(n){n}, where f(n) is a Steinhaus random multiplicative function. Specifically, we obtain the bounds predicted by exponentiating the law of the iterated logarithm, giving sharp upper and lower bounds.

We investigate the expressive power of depth-2 bandlimited random neural networks. A random net is a neural network where the hidden layer parameters are frozen with random assignment, and only the output layer parameters are trained by loss minimization. Using random weights for a hidden layer is an effective method to avoid non-convex optimization in standard gradient descent learning. It has also been adopted in recent deep learning theories. Despite the well-known fact that a neural network is a universal approximator, in this study, we mathematically show that when hidden parameters are distributed in a bounded domain, the network may not achieve zero approximation error. In particular, we derive a new nontrivial approximation error lower bound. The proof utilizes the technique of ridgelet analysis, a harmonic analysis method designed for neural networks. This method is inspired by fundamental principles in classical signal processing, specifically the idea that signals with limited bandwidth may not always be able to perfectly recreate the original signal. We corroborate our theoretical results with various simulation studies, and generally, two main take-home messages are offered: (i) Not any distribution for selecting random weights is feasible to build a universal approximator; (ii) A suitable assignment of random weights exists but to some degree is associated with the complexity of the target function.

Factorizing a large matrix into small matrices is a popular strategy for model compression. Singular value decomposition (SVD) plays a vital role in this compression strategy, approximating a learned matrix with fewer parameters. However, SVD minimizes the squared error toward reconstructing the original matrix without gauging the importance of the parameters, potentially giving a larger reconstruction error for those who affect the task accuracy more. In other words, the optimization objective of SVD is not aligned with the trained model's task accuracy. We analyze this previously unexplored problem, make observations, and address it by introducing Fisher information to weigh the importance of parameters affecting the model prediction. This idea leads to our method: Fisher-Weighted SVD (FWSVD). Although the factorized matrices from our approach do not result in smaller reconstruction errors, we find that our resulting task accuracy is much closer to the original model's performance. We perform analysis with the transformer-based language models, showing our weighted SVD largely alleviates the mismatched optimization objectives and can maintain model performance with a higher compression rate. Our method can directly compress a task-specific model while achieving better performance than other compact model strategies requiring expensive model pre-training. Moreover, the evaluation of compressing an already compact model shows our method can further reduce 9% to 30% parameters with an insignificant impact on task accuracy.

In this paper, we explore the application of mean field theory, a technique from statistical physics, to deep metric learning and address the high training complexity commonly associated with conventional metric learning loss functions. By adapting mean field theory for deep metric learning, we develop an approach to design classification-based loss functions from pair-based ones, which can be considered complementary to the proxy-based approach. Applying the mean field theory to two pair-based loss functions, we derive two new loss functions, MeanFieldContrastive and MeanFieldClassWiseMultiSimilarity losses, with reduced training complexity. We extensively evaluate these derived loss functions on three image-retrieval datasets and demonstrate that our loss functions outperform baseline methods in two out of the three datasets.

This paper investigates the issue of an adequate loss function in the optimization of machine learning models used in the forecasting of financial time series for the purpose of algorithmic investment strategies (AIS) construction. We propose the Mean Absolute Directional Loss (MADL) function, solving important problems of classical forecast error functions in extracting information from forecasts to create efficient buy/sell signals in algorithmic investment strategies. Finally, based on the data from two different asset classes (cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin and commodities: Crude Oil), we show that the new loss function enables us to select better hyperparameters for the LSTM model and obtain more efficient investment strategies, with regard to risk-adjusted return metrics on the out-of-sample data.

Postprandial hyperglycemia, marked by the blood glucose level exceeding the normal range after meals, is a critical indicator of progression toward type 2 diabetes in prediabetic and healthy individuals. A key metric for understanding blood glucose dynamics after eating is the postprandial area under the curve (PAUC). Predicting PAUC in advance based on a person's diet and activity level and explaining what affects postprandial blood glucose could allow an individual to adjust their lifestyle accordingly to maintain normal glucose levels. In this paper, we propose GlucoLens, an explainable machine learning approach to predict PAUC and hyperglycemia from diet, activity, and recent glucose patterns. We conducted a five-week user study with 10 full-time working individuals to develop and evaluate the computational model. Our machine learning model takes multimodal data including fasting glucose, recent glucose, recent activity, and macronutrient amounts, and provides an interpretable prediction of the postprandial glucose pattern. Our extensive analyses of the collected data revealed that the trained model achieves a normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) of 0.123. On average, GlucoLense with a Random Forest backbone provides a 16% better result than the baseline models. Additionally, GlucoLens predicts hyperglycemia with an accuracy of 74% and recommends different options to help avoid hyperglycemia through diverse counterfactual explanations. Code available: https://github.com/ab9mamun/GlucoLens.

Large language models (LLMs) with hundreds of billions of parameters require powerful server-grade GPUs for inference, limiting their practical deployment. To address this challenge, we introduce the outlier-aware weight quantization (OWQ) method, which aims to minimize LLM's footprint through low-precision representation. OWQ prioritizes a small subset of structured weights sensitive to quantization, storing them in high-precision, while applying highly tuned quantization to the remaining dense weights. This sensitivity-aware mixed-precision scheme reduces the quantization error notably, and extensive experiments demonstrate that 3.1-bit models using OWQ perform comparably to 4-bit models optimized by OPTQ. Furthermore, OWQ incorporates a parameter-efficient fine-tuning for task-specific adaptation, called weak column tuning (WCT), enabling accurate task-specific LLM adaptation with minimal memory overhead in the optimized format. OWQ represents a notable advancement in the flexibility, efficiency, and practicality of LLM optimization literature. The source code is available at https://github.com/xvyaward/owq

Background: We evaluate SAM 2 for surgical scene understanding by examining its semantic segmentation capabilities for organs/tissues both in zero-shot scenarios and after fine-tuning. Methods: We utilized five public datasets to evaluate and fine-tune SAM 2 for segmenting anatomical tissues in surgical videos/images. Fine-tuning was applied to the image encoder and mask decoder. We limited training subsets from 50 to 400 samples per class to better model real-world constraints with data acquisition. The impact of dataset size on fine-tuning performance was evaluated with weighted mean Dice coefficient (WMDC), and the results were also compared against previously reported state-of-the-art (SOTA) results. Results: SurgiSAM 2, a fine-tuned SAM 2 model, demonstrated significant improvements in segmentation performance, achieving a 17.9% relative WMDC gain compared to the baseline SAM 2. Increasing prompt points from 1 to 10 and training data scale from 50/class to 400/class enhanced performance; the best WMDC of 0.92 on the validation subset was achieved with 10 prompt points and 400 samples per class. On the test subset, this model outperformed prior SOTA methods in 24/30 (80%) of the classes with a WMDC of 0.91 using 10-point prompts. Notably, SurgiSAM 2 generalized effectively to unseen organ classes, achieving SOTA on 7/9 (77.8%) of them. Conclusion: SAM 2 achieves remarkable zero-shot and fine-tuned performance for surgical scene segmentation, surpassing prior SOTA models across several organ classes of diverse datasets. This suggests immense potential for enabling automated/semi-automated annotation pipelines, thereby decreasing the burden of annotations facilitating several surgical applications.

Hoffmann et al. (2022) propose three methods for estimating a compute-optimal scaling law. We attempt to replicate their third estimation procedure, which involves fitting a parametric loss function to a reconstruction of data from their plots. We find that the reported estimates are inconsistent with their first two estimation methods, fail at fitting the extracted data, and report implausibly narrow confidence intervals--intervals this narrow would require over 600,000 experiments, while they likely only ran fewer than 500. In contrast, our rederivation of the scaling law using the third approach yields results that are compatible with the findings from the first two estimation procedures described by Hoffmann et al.

Smoothness and low dimensional structures play central roles in improving generalization and stability in learning and statistics. This work combines techniques from semi-infinite constrained learning and manifold regularization to learn representations that are globally smooth on a manifold. To do so, it shows that under typical conditions the problem of learning a Lipschitz continuous function on a manifold is equivalent to a dynamically weighted manifold regularization problem. This observation leads to a practical algorithm based on a weighted Laplacian penalty whose weights are adapted using stochastic gradient techniques. It is shown that under mild conditions, this method estimates the Lipschitz constant of the solution, learning a globally smooth solution as a byproduct. Experiments on real world data illustrate the advantages of the proposed method relative to existing alternatives.

A fundamental question in modern machine learning is why large, over-parameterized models, such as deep neural networks and transformers, tend to generalize well, even when their number of parameters far exceeds the number of training samples. We investigate this phenomenon through the lens of information theory, grounded in universal learning theory. Specifically, we study a Bayesian mixture learner with log-loss and (almost) uniform prior over an expansive hypothesis class. Our key result shows that the learner's regret is not determined by the overall size of the hypothesis class, but rather by the cumulative probability of all models that are close, in Kullback-Leibler divergence distance, to the true data-generating process. We refer to this cumulative probability as the weight of the hypothesis. This leads to a natural notion of model simplicity: simple models are those with large weight and thus require fewer samples to generalize, while complex models have small weight and need more data. This perspective provides a rigorous and intuitive explanation for why over-parameterized models often avoid overfitting: the presence of simple hypotheses allows the posterior to concentrate on them when supported by the data. We further bridge theory and practice by recalling that stochastic gradient descent with Langevin dynamics samples from the correct posterior distribution, enabling our theoretical learner to be approximated using standard machine learning methods combined with ensemble learning. Our analysis yields non-uniform regret bounds and aligns with key practical concepts such as flat minima and model distillation. The results apply broadly across online, batch, and supervised learning settings, offering a unified and principled understanding of the generalization behavior of modern AI systems.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

Scoring systems are linear classification models that only require users to add, subtract and multiply a few small numbers in order to make a prediction. These models are in widespread use by the medical community, but are difficult to learn from data because they need to be accurate and sparse, have coprime integer coefficients, and satisfy multiple operational constraints. We present a new method for creating data-driven scoring systems called a Supersparse Linear Integer Model (SLIM). SLIM scoring systems are built by solving an integer program that directly encodes measures of accuracy (the 0-1 loss) and sparsity (the ell_0-seminorm) while restricting coefficients to coprime integers. SLIM can seamlessly incorporate a wide range of operational constraints related to accuracy and sparsity, and can produce highly tailored models without parameter tuning. We provide bounds on the testing and training accuracy of SLIM scoring systems, and present a new data reduction technique that can improve scalability by eliminating a portion of the training data beforehand. Our paper includes results from a collaboration with the Massachusetts General Hospital Sleep Laboratory, where SLIM was used to create a highly tailored scoring system for sleep apnea screening

Modern deep neural networks have achieved impressive performance on tasks from image classification to natural language processing. Surprisingly, these complex systems with massive amounts of parameters exhibit the same structural properties in their last-layer features and classifiers across canonical datasets when training until convergence. In particular, it has been observed that the last-layer features collapse to their class-means, and those class-means are the vertices of a simplex Equiangular Tight Frame (ETF). This phenomenon is known as Neural Collapse (NC). Recent papers have theoretically shown that NC emerges in the global minimizers of training problems with the simplified "unconstrained feature model". In this context, we take a step further and prove the NC occurrences in deep linear networks for the popular mean squared error (MSE) and cross entropy (CE) losses, showing that global solutions exhibit NC properties across the linear layers. Furthermore, we extend our study to imbalanced data for MSE loss and present the first geometric analysis of NC under bias-free setting. Our results demonstrate the convergence of the last-layer features and classifiers to a geometry consisting of orthogonal vectors, whose lengths depend on the amount of data in their corresponding classes. Finally, we empirically validate our theoretical analyses on synthetic and practical network architectures with both balanced and imbalanced scenarios.

We introduce a multi-fidelity estimator of covariance matrices that employs the log-Euclidean geometry of the symmetric positive-definite manifold. The estimator fuses samples from a hierarchy of data sources of differing fidelities and costs for variance reduction while guaranteeing definiteness, in contrast with previous approaches. The new estimator makes covariance estimation tractable in applications where simulation or data collection is expensive; to that end, we develop an optimal sample allocation scheme that minimizes the mean-squared error of the estimator given a fixed budget. Guaranteed definiteness is crucial to metric learning, data assimilation, and other downstream tasks. Evaluations of our approach using data from physical applications (heat conduction, fluid dynamics) demonstrate more accurate metric learning and speedups of more than one order of magnitude compared to benchmarks.

Weighted graphs are ubiquitous throughout biology, chemistry, and the social sciences, motivating the development of generative models for abstract weighted graph data using deep neural networks. However, most current deep generative models are either designed for unweighted graphs and are not easily extended to weighted topologies or incorporate edge weights without consideration of a joint distribution with topology. Furthermore, learning a distribution over weighted graphs must account for complex nonlocal dependencies between both the edges of the graph and corresponding weights of each edge. We develop an autoregressive model BiGG-E, a nontrivial extension of the BiGG model, that learns a joint distribution over weighted graphs while still exploiting sparsity to generate a weighted graph with n nodes and m edges in O((n + m)log n) time. Simulation studies and experiments on a variety of benchmark datasets demonstrate that BiGG-E best captures distributions over weighted graphs while remaining scalable and computationally efficient.

Diffusion models have demonstrated compelling generation quality by optimizing the variational lower bound through a simple denoising score matching loss. In this paper, we provide theoretical evidence that the prevailing practice of using a constant loss weight strategy in diffusion models leads to biased estimation during the training phase. Simply optimizing the denoising network to predict Gaussian noise with constant weighting may hinder precise estimations of original images. To address the issue, we propose an elegant and effective weighting strategy grounded in the theoretically unbiased principle. Moreover, we conduct a comprehensive and systematic exploration to dissect the inherent bias problem deriving from constant weighting loss from the perspectives of its existence, impact and reasons. These analyses are expected to advance our understanding and demystify the inner workings of diffusion models. Through empirical evaluation, we demonstrate that our proposed debiased estimation method significantly enhances sample quality without the reliance on complex techniques, and exhibits improved efficiency compared to the baseline method both in training and sampling processes.

We study the optimisation problem associated with Gaussian process regression using squared loss. The most common approach to this problem is to apply an exact solver, such as conjugate gradient descent, either directly, or to a reduced-order version of the problem. Recently, driven by successes in deep learning, stochastic gradient descent has gained traction as an alternative. In this paper, we show that when done rightx2014by which we mean using specific insights from the optimisation and kernel communitiesx2014this approach is highly effective. We thus introduce a particular stochastic dual gradient descent algorithm, that may be implemented with a few lines of code using any deep learning framework. We explain our design decisions by illustrating their advantage against alternatives with ablation studies and show that the new method is highly competitive. Our evaluations on standard regression benchmarks and a Bayesian optimisation task set our approach apart from preconditioned conjugate gradients, variational Gaussian process approximations, and a previous version of stochastic gradient descent for Gaussian processes. On a molecular binding affinity prediction task, our method places Gaussian process regression on par in terms of performance with state-of-the-art graph neural networks.

As the issue of robustness in AI systems becomes vital, statistical learning techniques that are reliable even in presence of partly contaminated data have to be developed. Preference data, in the form of (complete) rankings in the simplest situations, are no exception and the demand for appropriate concepts and tools is all the more pressing given that technologies fed by or producing this type of data (e.g. search engines, recommending systems) are now massively deployed. However, the lack of vector space structure for the set of rankings (i.e. the symmetric group S_n) and the complex nature of statistics considered in ranking data analysis make the formulation of robustness objectives in this domain challenging. In this paper, we introduce notions of robustness, together with dedicated statistical methods, for Consensus Ranking the flagship problem in ranking data analysis, aiming at summarizing a probability distribution on S_n by a median ranking. Precisely, we propose specific extensions of the popular concept of breakdown point, tailored to consensus ranking, and address the related computational issues. Beyond the theoretical contributions, the relevance of the approach proposed is supported by an experimental study.

In this paper, we consider non-convex multi-block bilevel optimization (MBBO) problems, which involve mgg 1 lower level problems and have important applications in machine learning. Designing a stochastic gradient and controlling its variance is more intricate due to the hierarchical sampling of blocks and data and the unique challenge of estimating hyper-gradient. We aim to achieve three nice properties for our algorithm: (a) matching the state-of-the-art complexity of standard BO problems with a single block; (b) achieving parallel speedup by sampling I blocks and sampling B samples for each sampled block per-iteration; (c) avoiding the computation of the inverse of a high-dimensional Hessian matrix estimator. However, it is non-trivial to achieve all of these by observing that existing works only achieve one or two of these properties. To address the involved challenges for achieving (a, b, c), we propose two stochastic algorithms by using advanced blockwise variance-reduction techniques for tracking the Hessian matrices (for low-dimensional problems) or the Hessian-vector products (for high-dimensional problems), and prove an iteration complexity of O(mepsilon^{-3I(I<m)}{II} + mepsilon^{-3}{IB}) for finding an epsilon-stationary point under appropriate conditions. We also conduct experiments to verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms comparing with existing MBBO algorithms.

In high dimension, low sample size (HDLSS) settings, classifiers based on Euclidean distances like the nearest neighbor classifier and the average distance classifier perform quite poorly if differences between locations of the underlying populations get masked by scale differences. To rectify this problem, several modifications of these classifiers have been proposed in the literature. However, existing methods are confined to location and scale differences only, and often fail to discriminate among populations differing outside of the first two moments. In this article, we propose some simple transformations of these classifiers resulting into improved performance even when the underlying populations have the same location and scale. We further propose a generalization of these classifiers based on the idea of grouping of variables. The high-dimensional behavior of the proposed classifiers is studied theoretically. Numerical experiments with a variety of simulated examples as well as an extensive analysis of real data sets exhibit advantages of the proposed methods.

Asphalt concrete's (AC) durability and maintenance demands are strongly influenced by its fatigue life. Traditional methods for determining this characteristic are both resource-intensive and time-consuming. This study employs artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict AC fatigue life, focusing on the impact of strain level, binder content, and air-void content. Leveraging a substantial dataset, we tailored our models to effectively handle the wide range of fatigue life data, typically represented on a logarithmic scale. The mean square logarithmic error was utilized as the loss function to enhance prediction accuracy across all levels of fatigue life. Through comparative analysis of various hyperparameters, we developed a machine-learning model that captures the complex relationships within the data. Our findings demonstrate that higher binder content significantly enhances fatigue life, while the influence of air-void content is more variable, depending on binder levels. Most importantly, this study provides insights into the intricacies of using ANNs for modeling, showcasing their potential utility with larger datasets. The codes developed and the data used in this study are provided as open source on a GitHub repository, with a link included in the paper for full access.

We rigorously quantify the improvement in the sample complexity of variational divergence estimations for group-invariant distributions. In the cases of the Wasserstein-1 metric and the Lipschitz-regularized alpha-divergences, the reduction of sample complexity is proportional to an ambient-dimension-dependent power of the group size. For the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), the improvement of sample complexity is more nuanced, as it depends on not only the group size but also the choice of kernel. Numerical simulations verify our theories.

The paper studies the linear model for Bitcoin price which includes regression features based on Bitcoin currency statistics, mining processes, Google search trends, Wikipedia pages visits. The pattern of deviation of regression model prediction from real prices is simpler comparing to price time series. It is assumed that this pattern can be predicted by an experienced expert. In such a way, using the combination of the regression model and expert correction, one can receive better results than with either regression model or expert opinion only. It is shown that Bayesian approach makes it possible to utilize the probabilistic approach using distributions with fat tails and take into account the outliers in Bitcoin price time series.

Radio frequency (RF) signal mapping, which is the process of analyzing and predicting the RF signal strength and distribution across specific areas, is crucial for cellular network planning and deployment. Traditional approaches to RF signal mapping rely on statistical models constructed based on measurement data, which offer low complexity but often lack accuracy, or ray tracing tools, which provide enhanced precision for the target area but suffer from increased computational complexity. Recently, machine learning (ML) has emerged as a data-driven method for modeling RF signal propagation, which leverages models trained on synthetic datasets to perform RF signal mapping in "unseen" areas. In this paper, we present Geo2SigMap, an ML-based framework for efficient and high-fidelity RF signal mapping using geographic databases. First, we develop an automated framework that seamlessly integrates three open-source tools: OpenStreetMap (geographic databases), Blender (computer graphics), and Sionna (ray tracing), enabling the efficient generation of large-scale 3D building maps and ray tracing models. Second, we propose a cascaded U-Net model, which is pre-trained on synthetic datasets and employed to generate detailed RF signal maps, leveraging environmental information and sparse measurement data. Finally, we evaluate the performance of Geo2SigMap via a real-world measurement campaign, where three types of user equipment (UE) collect over 45,000 data points related to cellular information from six LTE cells operating in the citizens broadband radio service (CBRS) band. Our results show that Geo2SigMap achieves an average root-mean-square-error (RMSE) of 6.04 dB for predicting the reference signal received power (RSRP) at the UE, representing an average RMSE improvement of 3.59 dB compared to existing methods.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

Understanding the gradient variance of black-box variational inference (BBVI) is a crucial step for establishing its convergence and developing algorithmic improvements. However, existing studies have yet to show that the gradient variance of BBVI satisfies the conditions used to study the convergence of stochastic gradient descent (SGD), the workhorse of BBVI. In this work, we show that BBVI satisfies a matching bound corresponding to the ABC condition used in the SGD literature when applied to smooth and quadratically-growing log-likelihoods. Our results generalize to nonlinear covariance parameterizations widely used in the practice of BBVI. Furthermore, we show that the variance of the mean-field parameterization has provably superior dimensional dependence.

Understanding when the noise in stochastic gradient descent (SGD) affects generalization of deep neural networks remains a challenge, complicated by the fact that networks can operate in distinct training regimes. Here we study how the magnitude of this noise T affects performance as the size of the training set P and the scale of initialization alpha are varied. For gradient descent, alpha is a key parameter that controls if the network is `lazy'(alphagg1) or instead learns features (alphall1). For classification of MNIST and CIFAR10 images, our central results are: (i) obtaining phase diagrams for performance in the (alpha,T) plane. They show that SGD noise can be detrimental or instead useful depending on the training regime. Moreover, although increasing T or decreasing alpha both allow the net to escape the lazy regime, these changes can have opposite effects on performance. (ii) Most importantly, we find that the characteristic temperature T_c where the noise of SGD starts affecting the trained model (and eventually performance) is a power law of P. We relate this finding with the observation that key dynamical quantities, such as the total variation of weights during training, depend on both T and P as power laws. These results indicate that a key effect of SGD noise occurs late in training by affecting the stopping process whereby all data are fitted. Indeed, we argue that due to SGD noise, nets must develop a stronger `signal', i.e. larger informative weights, to fit the data, leading to a longer training time. A stronger signal and a longer training time are also required when the size of the training set P increases. We confirm these views in the perceptron model, where signal and noise can be precisely measured. Interestingly, exponents characterizing the effect of SGD depend on the density of data near the decision boundary, as we explain.

We study regressions with multiple treatments and a set of controls that is flexible enough to purge omitted variable bias. We show that these regressions generally fail to estimate convex averages of heterogeneous treatment effects -- instead, estimates of each treatment's effect are contaminated by non-convex averages of the effects of other treatments. We discuss three estimation approaches that avoid such contamination bias, including the targeting of easiest-to-estimate weighted average effects. A re-analysis of nine empirical applications finds economically and statistically meaningful contamination bias in observational studies; contamination bias in experimental studies is more limited due to smaller variability in propensity scores.

For a parametric model of distributions, the closest distribution in the model to the true distribution located outside the model is considered. Measuring the closeness between two distributions with the Kullback-Leibler (K-L) divergence, the closest distribution is called the "information projection." The estimation risk of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is defined as the expectation of K-L divergence between the information projection and the predictive distribution with plugged-in MLE. Here, the asymptotic expansion of the risk is derived up to n^{-2}-order, and the sufficient condition on the risk for the Bayes error rate between the true distribution and the information projection to be lower than a specified value is investigated. Combining these results, the "p-n criterion" is proposed, which determines whether the MLE is sufficiently close to the information projection for the given model and sample. In particular, the criterion for an exponential family model is relatively simple and can be used for a complex model with no explicit form of normalizing constant. This criterion can constitute a solution to the sample size or model acceptance problem. Use of the p-n criteria is demonstrated for two practical datasets. The relationship between the results and information criteria is also studied.

The k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN) classification approach is conceptually simple - yet widely applied since it often performs well in practical applications. However, using a global constant k does not always provide an optimal solution, e.g., for datasets with an irregular density distribution of data points. This paper proposes an adaptive kNN classifier where k is chosen dynamically for each instance (point) to be classified, such that the expected accuracy of classification is maximized. We define the expected accuracy as the accuracy of a set of structurally similar observations. An arbitrary similarity function can be used to find these observations. We introduce and evaluate different similarity functions. For the evaluation, we use five different classification tasks based on geo-spatial data. Each classification task consists of (tens of) thousands of items. We demonstrate, that the presented expected accuracy measures can be a good estimator for kNN performance, and the proposed adaptive kNN classifier outperforms common kNN and previously introduced adaptive kNN algorithms. Also, we show that the range of considered k can be significantly reduced to speed up the algorithm without negative influence on classification accuracy.

Layer normalization (LayerNorm) has been successfully applied to various deep neural networks to help stabilize training and boost model convergence because of its capability in handling re-centering and re-scaling of both inputs and weight matrix. However, the computational overhead introduced by LayerNorm makes these improvements expensive and significantly slows the underlying network, e.g. RNN in particular. In this paper, we hypothesize that re-centering invariance in LayerNorm is dispensable and propose root mean square layer normalization, or RMSNorm. RMSNorm regularizes the summed inputs to a neuron in one layer according to root mean square (RMS), giving the model re-scaling invariance property and implicit learning rate adaptation ability. RMSNorm is computationally simpler and thus more efficient than LayerNorm. We also present partial RMSNorm, or pRMSNorm where the RMS is estimated from p% of the summed inputs without breaking the above properties. Extensive experiments on several tasks using diverse network architectures show that RMSNorm achieves comparable performance against LayerNorm but reduces the running time by 7%~64% on different models. Source code is available at https://github.com/bzhangGo/rmsnorm.

As new optimizers gain traction and model quantization becomes standard for efficient deployment, a key question arises: how does the choice of optimizer affect model performance in the presence of quantization? Despite progress in both areas, systematic evidence on optimizer-quantization interactions remains limited. To fill this gap, we study the impact of optimizer choice on model robustness under quantization, considering both post-training quantization (PTQ), and quantization-aware training (QAT). We first train full-precision models, ranging from 50M to 1.5B parameters, with six optimizers, to explore the hyperparameter landscape, and establish well-tuned baselines. We then apply PTQ to evaluate how model performance degrades when trained with different optimizers. We find that outlier-related metrics, such as the max-to-mean ratio (MMR) and Kurtosis, fail to predict the PTQ performance across different optimizers. We show analytically that this is due to the MMR capturing only isolated layer errors, while ignoring how quantization errors accumulate and propagate through the network. To study the QAT degradation, we train quantized models from scratch and compare them to our original-precision baselines. We find that optimizers performing well in the original pretraining setup may not remain optimal under QAT, and that models trained with Shampoo show the lowest accuracy degradation. Finally, we derive scaling laws for quantization-aware training under different optimizers, showing that Shampoo achieves the highest parameter efficiency of all tested optimizers.

We consider learning in an adversarial Markov Decision Process (MDP) where the loss functions can change arbitrarily over K episodes and the state space can be arbitrarily large. We assume that the Q-function of any policy is linear in some known features, that is, a linear function approximation exists. The best existing regret upper bound for this setting (Luo et al., 2021) is of order mathcal O(K^{2/3}) (omitting all other dependencies), given access to a simulator. This paper provides two algorithms that improve the regret to mathcal O(sqrt K) in the same setting. Our first algorithm makes use of a refined analysis of the Follow-the-Regularized-Leader (FTRL) algorithm with the log-barrier regularizer. This analysis allows the loss estimators to be arbitrarily negative and might be of independent interest. Our second algorithm develops a magnitude-reduced loss estimator, further removing the polynomial dependency on the number of actions in the first algorithm and leading to the optimal regret bound (up to logarithmic terms and dependency on the horizon). Moreover, we also extend the first algorithm to simulator-free linear MDPs, which achieves mathcal O(K^{8/9}) regret and greatly improves over the best existing bound mathcal O(K^{14/15}). This algorithm relies on a better alternative to the Matrix Geometric Resampling procedure by Neu & Olkhovskaya (2020), which could again be of independent interest.

Finding the mode of a high dimensional probability distribution D is a fundamental algorithmic problem in statistics and data analysis. There has been particular interest in efficient methods for solving the problem when D is represented as a mixture model or kernel density estimate, although few algorithmic results with worst-case approximation and runtime guarantees are known. In this work, we significantly generalize a result of (LeeLiMusco:2021) on mode approximation for Gaussian mixture models. We develop randomized dimensionality reduction methods for mixtures involving a broader class of kernels, including the popular logistic, sigmoid, and generalized Gaussian kernels. As in Lee et al.'s work, our dimensionality reduction results yield quasi-polynomial algorithms for mode finding with multiplicative accuracy (1-epsilon) for any epsilon > 0. Moreover, when combined with gradient descent, they yield efficient practical heuristics for the problem. In addition to our positive results, we prove a hardness result for box kernels, showing that there is no polynomial time algorithm for finding the mode of a kernel density estimate, unless P = NP. Obtaining similar hardness results for kernels used in practice (like Gaussian or logistic kernels) is an interesting future direction.

Machine learning models often have uneven performance among subpopulations (a.k.a., groups) in the data distributions. This poses a significant challenge for the models to generalize when the proportions of the groups shift during deployment. To improve robustness to such shifts, existing approaches have developed strategies that train models or perform hyperparameter tuning using the group-labeled data to minimize the worst-case loss over groups. However, a non-trivial amount of high-quality labels is often required to obtain noticeable improvements. Given the costliness of the labels, we propose to adopt a different paradigm to enhance group label efficiency: utilizing the group-labeled data as a target set to optimize the weights of other group-unlabeled data. We introduce Group-robust Sample Reweighting (GSR), a two-stage approach that first learns the representations from group-unlabeled data, and then tinkers the model by iteratively retraining its last layer on the reweighted data using influence functions. Our GSR is theoretically sound, practically lightweight, and effective in improving the robustness to subpopulation shifts. In particular, GSR outperforms the previous state-of-the-art approaches that require the same amount or even more group labels.

Macro-AUC is the arithmetic mean of the class-wise AUCs in multi-label learning and is commonly used in practice. However, its theoretical understanding is far lacking. Toward solving it, we characterize the generalization properties of various learning algorithms based on the corresponding surrogate losses w.r.t. Macro-AUC. We theoretically identify a critical factor of the dataset affecting the generalization bounds: the label-wise class imbalance. Our results on the imbalance-aware error bounds show that the widely-used univariate loss-based algorithm is more sensitive to the label-wise class imbalance than the proposed pairwise and reweighted loss-based ones, which probably implies its worse performance. Moreover, empirical results on various datasets corroborate our theory findings. To establish it, technically, we propose a new (and more general) McDiarmid-type concentration inequality, which may be of independent interest.

We study the sparse recovery problem with an underdetermined linear system characterized by a Kronecker-structured dictionary and a Kronecker-supported sparse vector. We cast this problem into the sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) framework and rely on the expectation-maximization method for a solution. To this end, we model the Kronecker-structured support with a hierarchical Gaussian prior distribution parameterized by a Kronecker-structured hyperparameter, leading to a non-convex optimization problem. The optimization problem is solved using the alternating minimization (AM) method and a singular value decomposition (SVD)-based method, resulting in two algorithms. Further, we analytically guarantee that the AM-based method converges to the stationary point of the SBL cost function. The SVD-based method, though it adopts approximations, is empirically shown to be more efficient and accurate. We then apply our algorithm to estimate the uplink wireless channel in an intelligent reflecting surface-aided MIMO system and extend the AM-based algorithm to address block sparsity in the channel. We also study the SBL cost to show that the minima of the cost function are achieved at sparse solutions and that incorporating the Kronecker structure reduces the number of local minima of the SBL cost function. Our numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithms compared to the state-of-the-art.

We study the data selection problem, whose aim is to select a small representative subset of data that can be used to efficiently train a machine learning model. We present a new data selection approach based on k-means clustering and sensitivity sampling. Assuming access to an embedding representation of the data with respect to which the model loss is H\"older continuous, our approach provably allows selecting a set of ``typical'' k + 1/varepsilon^2 elements whose average loss corresponds to the average loss of the whole dataset, up to a multiplicative (1pmvarepsilon) factor and an additive varepsilon lambda Phi_k, where Phi_k represents the k-means cost for the input embeddings and lambda is the H\"older constant. We furthermore demonstrate the performance and scalability of our approach on fine-tuning foundation models and show that it outperforms state-of-the-art methods. We also show how it can be applied on linear regression, leading to a new sampling strategy that surprisingly matches the performances of leverage score sampling, while being conceptually simpler and more scalable.

Measuring geometric similarity between high-dimensional network representations is a topic of longstanding interest to neuroscience and deep learning. Although many methods have been proposed, only a few works have rigorously analyzed their statistical efficiency or quantified estimator uncertainty in data-limited regimes. Here, we derive upper and lower bounds on the worst-case convergence of standard estimators of shape distancex2014a measure of representational dissimilarity proposed by Williams et al. (2021).These bounds reveal the challenging nature of the problem in high-dimensional feature spaces. To overcome these challenges, we introduce a new method-of-moments estimator with a tunable bias-variance tradeoff. We show that this estimator achieves substantially lower bias than standard estimators in simulation and on neural data, particularly in high-dimensional settings. Thus, we lay the foundation for a rigorous statistical theory for high-dimensional shape analysis, and we contribute a new estimation method that is well-suited to practical scientific settings.

We consider the problem of conformal prediction under covariate shift. Given labeled data from a source domain and unlabeled data from a covariate shifted target domain, we seek to construct prediction sets with valid marginal coverage in the target domain. Most existing methods require estimating the unknown likelihood ratio function, which can be prohibitive for high-dimensional data such as images. To address this challenge, we introduce the likelihood ratio regularized quantile regression (LR-QR) algorithm, which combines the pinball loss with a novel choice of regularization in order to construct a threshold function without directly estimating the unknown likelihood ratio. We show that the LR-QR method has coverage at the desired level in the target domain, up to a small error term that we can control. Our proofs draw on a novel analysis of coverage via stability bounds from learning theory. Our experiments demonstrate that the LR-QR algorithm outperforms existing methods on high-dimensional prediction tasks, including a regression task for the Communities and Crime dataset, an image classification task from the WILDS repository, and an LLM question-answering task on the MMLU benchmark.

We propose an approach to estimate the number of samples required for a model to reach a target performance. We find that the power law, the de facto principle to estimate model performance, leads to large error when using a small dataset (e.g., 5 samples per class) for extrapolation. This is because the log-performance error against the log-dataset size follows a nonlinear progression in the few-shot regime followed by a linear progression in the high-shot regime. We introduce a novel piecewise power law (PPL) that handles the two data regimes differently. To estimate the parameters of the PPL, we introduce a random forest regressor trained via meta learning that generalizes across classification/detection tasks, ResNet/ViT based architectures, and random/pre-trained initializations. The PPL improves the performance estimation on average by 37% across 16 classification and 33% across 10 detection datasets, compared to the power law. We further extend the PPL to provide a confidence bound and use it to limit the prediction horizon that reduces over-estimation of data by 76% on classification and 91% on detection datasets.

One straightforward metric to evaluate a survival prediction model is based on the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) -- the average of the absolute difference between the time predicted by the model and the true event time, over all subjects. Unfortunately, this is challenging because, in practice, the test set includes (right) censored individuals, meaning we do not know when a censored individual actually experienced the event. In this paper, we explore various metrics to estimate MAE for survival datasets that include (many) censored individuals. Moreover, we introduce a novel and effective approach for generating realistic semi-synthetic survival datasets to facilitate the evaluation of metrics. Our findings, based on the analysis of the semi-synthetic datasets, reveal that our proposed metric (MAE using pseudo-observations) is able to rank models accurately based on their performance, and often closely matches the true MAE -- in particular, is better than several alternative methods.

Predictive Coding (PC) is a theoretical framework in cognitive science suggesting that the human brain processes cognition through spatiotemporal prediction of the visual world. Existing studies have developed spatiotemporal prediction neural networks based on the PC theory, emulating its two core mechanisms: Correcting predictions from residuals and hierarchical learning. However, these models do not show the enhancement of prediction skills on real-world forecasting tasks and ignore the Precision Weighting mechanism of PC theory. The precision weighting mechanism posits that the brain allocates more attention to signals with lower precision, contributing to the cognitive ability of human brains. This work introduces the Cognitive Diffusion Probabilistic Models (CogDPM), which demonstrate the connection between diffusion probabilistic models and PC theory. CogDPM features a precision estimation method based on the hierarchical sampling capabilities of diffusion models and weight the guidance with precision weights estimated by the inherent property of diffusion models. We experimentally show that the precision weights effectively estimate the data predictability. We apply CogDPM to real-world prediction tasks using the United Kindom precipitation and ERA surface wind datasets. Our results demonstrate that CogDPM outperforms both existing domain-specific operational models and general deep prediction models by providing more proficient forecasting.

Large pre-trained models (LPMs), such as large language models, have become ubiquitous and are employed in many applications. These models are often adapted to a desired domain or downstream task through a fine-tuning stage. This paper proposes SQFT, an end-to-end solution for low-precision sparse parameter-efficient fine-tuning of LPMs, allowing for effective model manipulation in resource-constrained environments. Additionally, an innovative strategy enables the merging of sparse weights with low-rank adapters without losing sparsity and accuracy, overcoming the limitations of previous approaches. SQFT also addresses the challenge of having quantized weights and adapters with different numerical precisions, enabling merging in the desired numerical format without sacrificing accuracy. Multiple adaptation scenarios, models, and comprehensive sparsity levels demonstrate the effectiveness of SQFT. Models and code are available at https://github.com/IntelLabs/Hardware-Aware-Automated-Machine-Learning.

Risk scores are simple classification models that let users make quick risk predictions by adding and subtracting a few small numbers. These models are widely used in medicine and criminal justice, but are difficult to learn from data because they need to be calibrated, sparse, use small integer coefficients, and obey application-specific operational constraints. In this paper, we present a new machine learning approach to learn risk scores. We formulate the risk score problem as a mixed integer nonlinear program, and present a cutting plane algorithm for non-convex settings to efficiently recover its optimal solution. We improve our algorithm with specialized techniques to generate feasible solutions, narrow the optimality gap, and reduce data-related computation. Our approach can fit risk scores in a way that scales linearly in the number of samples, provides a certificate of optimality, and obeys real-world constraints without parameter tuning or post-processing. We benchmark the performance benefits of this approach through an extensive set of numerical experiments, comparing to risk scores built using heuristic approaches. We also discuss its practical benefits through a real-world application where we build a customized risk score for ICU seizure prediction in collaboration with the Massachusetts General Hospital.

This paper provides a review and commentary on the past, present, and future of numerical optimization algorithms in the context of machine learning applications. Through case studies on text classification and the training of deep neural networks, we discuss how optimization problems arise in machine learning and what makes them challenging. A major theme of our study is that large-scale machine learning represents a distinctive setting in which the stochastic gradient (SG) method has traditionally played a central role while conventional gradient-based nonlinear optimization techniques typically falter. Based on this viewpoint, we present a comprehensive theory of a straightforward, yet versatile SG algorithm, discuss its practical behavior, and highlight opportunities for designing algorithms with improved performance. This leads to a discussion about the next generation of optimization methods for large-scale machine learning, including an investigation of two main streams of research on techniques that diminish noise in the stochastic directions and methods that make use of second-order derivative approximations.

Variance reduction (VR) techniques have contributed significantly to accelerating learning with massive datasets in the smooth and strongly convex setting (Schmidt et al., 2017; Johnson & Zhang, 2013; Roux et al., 2012). However, such techniques have not yet met the same success in the realm of large-scale deep learning due to various factors such as the use of data augmentation or regularization methods like dropout (Defazio & Bottou, 2019). This challenge has recently motivated the design of novel variance reduction techniques tailored explicitly for deep learning (Arnold et al., 2019; Ma & Yarats, 2018). This work is an additional step in this direction. In particular, we exploit the ubiquitous clustering structure of rich datasets used in deep learning to design a family of scalable variance reduced optimization procedures by combining existing optimizers (e.g., SGD+Momentum, Quasi Hyperbolic Momentum, Implicit Gradient Transport) with a multi-momentum strategy (Yuan et al., 2019). Our proposal leads to faster convergence than vanilla methods on standard benchmark datasets (e.g., CIFAR and ImageNet). It is robust to label noise and amenable to distributed optimization. We provide a parallel implementation in JAX.

Bayesian optimisation is a popular approach for optimising expensive black-box functions. The next location to be evaluated is selected via maximising an acquisition function that balances exploitation and exploration. Gaussian processes, the surrogate models of choice in Bayesian optimisation, are often used with a constant prior mean function equal to the arithmetic mean of the observed function values. We show that the rate of convergence can depend sensitively on the choice of mean function. We empirically investigate 8 mean functions (constant functions equal to the arithmetic mean, minimum, median and maximum of the observed function evaluations, linear, quadratic polynomials, random forests and RBF networks), using 10 synthetic test problems and two real-world problems, and using the Expected Improvement and Upper Confidence Bound acquisition functions. We find that for design dimensions ge5 using a constant mean function equal to the worst observed quality value is consistently the best choice on the synthetic problems considered. We argue that this worst-observed-quality function promotes exploitation leading to more rapid convergence. However, for the real-world tasks the more complex mean functions capable of modelling the fitness landscape may be effective, although there is no clearly optimum choice.

We introduce Gravity, another algorithm for gradient-based optimization. In this paper, we explain how our novel idea change parameters to reduce the deep learning model's loss. It has three intuitive hyper-parameters that the best values for them are proposed. Also, we propose an alternative to moving average. To compare the performance of the Gravity optimizer with two common optimizers, Adam and RMSProp, five standard datasets were trained on two VGGNet models with a batch size of 128 for 100 epochs. Gravity hyper-parameters did not need to be tuned for different models. As will be explained more in the paper, to investigate the direct impact of the optimizer itself on loss reduction no overfitting prevention technique was used. The obtained results show that the Gravity optimizer has more stable performance than Adam and RMSProp and gives greater values of validation accuracy for datasets with more output classes like CIFAR-100 (Fine).

Background and Objective: Radiation pneumonitis (RP) is a side effect of thoracic radiation therapy. Recently, Machine learning (ML) models enhanced with radiomic and dosiomic features provide better predictions by incorporating spatial information beyond DVHs. However, to improve the clinical decision process, we propose to use uncertainty quantification (UQ) to improve the confidence in model prediction. This study evaluates the impact of post hoc UQ methods on the discriminative performance and calibration of ML models for RP prediction. Methods: This study evaluated four ML models: logistic regression (LR), support vector machines (SVM), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and random forest (RF), using radiomic, dosiomic, and dosimetric features to predict RP. We applied UQ methods, including Patt scaling, isotonic regression, Venn-ABERS predictor, and Conformal Prediction, to quantify uncertainty. Model performance was assessed through Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC), Area Under the Precision-Recall Curve (AUPRC), and Adaptive Calibration Error (ACE) using Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (LOO-CV). Results: UQ methods enhanced predictive performance, particularly for high-certainty predictions, while also improving calibration. Radiomic and dosiomic features increased model accuracy but introduced calibration challenges, especially for non-linear models like XGB and RF. Performance gains from UQ methods were most noticeable at higher certainty thresholds. Conclusion: Integrating UQ into ML models with radiomic and dosiomic features improves both predictive accuracy and calibration, supporting more reliable clinical decision-making. The findings emphasize the value of UQ methods in enhancing applicability of predictive models for RP in healthcare settings.

Missing data in time series is a pervasive problem that puts obstacles in the way of advanced analysis. A popular solution is imputation, where the fundamental challenge is to determine what values should be filled in. This paper proposes SAITS, a novel method based on the self-attention mechanism for missing value imputation in multivariate time series. Trained by a joint-optimization approach, SAITS learns missing values from a weighted combination of two diagonally-masked self-attention (DMSA) blocks. DMSA explicitly captures both the temporal dependencies and feature correlations between time steps, which improves imputation accuracy and training speed. Meanwhile, the weighted-combination design enables SAITS to dynamically assign weights to the learned representations from two DMSA blocks according to the attention map and the missingness information. Extensive experiments quantitatively and qualitatively demonstrate that SAITS outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on the time-series imputation task efficiently and reveal SAITS' potential to improve the learning performance of pattern recognition models on incomplete time-series data from the real world. The code is open source on GitHub at https://github.com/WenjieDu/SAITS.

We give the first efficient algorithm for learning halfspaces in the testable learning model recently defined by Rubinfeld and Vasilyan (2023). In this model, a learner certifies that the accuracy of its output hypothesis is near optimal whenever the training set passes an associated test, and training sets drawn from some target distribution -- e.g., the Gaussian -- must pass the test. This model is more challenging than distribution-specific agnostic or Massart noise models where the learner is allowed to fail arbitrarily if the distributional assumption does not hold. We consider the setting where the target distribution is Gaussian (or more generally any strongly log-concave distribution) in d dimensions and the noise model is either Massart or adversarial (agnostic). For Massart noise, our tester-learner runs in polynomial time and outputs a hypothesis with (information-theoretically optimal) error opt + epsilon for any strongly log-concave target distribution. For adversarial noise, our tester-learner obtains error O(opt) + epsilon in polynomial time when the target distribution is Gaussian; for strongly log-concave distributions, we obtain O(opt) + epsilon in quasipolynomial time. Prior work on testable learning ignores the labels in the training set and checks that the empirical moments of the covariates are close to the moments of the base distribution. Here we develop new tests of independent interest that make critical use of the labels and combine them with the moment-matching approach of Gollakota et al. (2023). This enables us to simulate a variant of the algorithm of Diakonikolas et al. (2020) for learning noisy halfspaces using nonconvex SGD but in the testable learning setting.

Randomized Smoothing (RS) has been proven a promising method for endowing an arbitrary image classifier with certified robustness. However, the substantial uncertainty inherent in the high-dimensional isotropic Gaussian noise imposes the curse of dimensionality on RS. Specifically, the upper bound of {ell_2} certified robustness radius provided by RS exhibits a diminishing trend with the expansion of the input dimension d, proportionally decreasing at a rate of 1/d. This paper explores the feasibility of providing {ell_2} certified robustness for high-dimensional input through the utilization of dual smoothing in the lower-dimensional space. The proposed Dual Randomized Smoothing (DRS) down-samples the input image into two sub-images and smooths the two sub-images in lower dimensions. Theoretically, we prove that DRS guarantees a tight {ell_2} certified robustness radius for the original input and reveal that DRS attains a superior upper bound on the {ell_2} robustness radius, which decreases proportionally at a rate of (1/sqrt m + 1/sqrt n ) with m+n=d. Extensive experiments demonstrate the generalizability and effectiveness of DRS, which exhibits a notable capability to integrate with established methodologies, yielding substantial improvements in both accuracy and {ell_2} certified robustness baselines of RS on the CIFAR-10 and ImageNet datasets. Code is available at https://github.com/xiasong0501/DRS.